Argentina | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate -2.10 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 8.50 9.8 9.9 10.1 10.2 9 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 40.50 46 47 40 34 10 percent [+]
Interest Rate 130.51 26 25.25 24 22.5 12 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -114.00 500 720 810 900 -10 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 48.40 52.56 52.56 52.56 54 57 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Currency 15.99 15.59 15.75 15.9 16.06 18.53 [+]
Stock Market 17196.77 16300 16200 16000 15800 13200 points [+]
GDP Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate -2.10 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate -3.40 -2.2 -0.3 1.8 1.5 2 percent [+]
GDP 548.06 510 530 530 530 650 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 762231.00 700000 676000 768000 718000 950000 ARS Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 140375.00 130000 125000 158000 151000 180000 ARS Million [+]
GDP per capita 12128.28 12100 12500 12500 12500 13400 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 17554.12 18000 19200 19200 19200 22000 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 101448.72 33500 35000 103500 35000 38000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Construction 20567.97 18000 19000 20000 23000 30000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 117404.03 101000 111700 117000 123000 136000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Mining 22366.55 22033 22859 22629 26900 24222 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 32752.17 33473 33706 33842 34097 37245 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Services 94224.77 96000 96600 96700 99000 133000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Transport 58412.82 60900 62700 63000 64000 67000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 12528.03 12670 12981 12879 13131 14066 ARS Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 8.50 9.8 9.9 10.1 10.2 9 percent [+]
Employed Persons 11477.00 11240 112300 11240 13000 15500 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 1069.00 1240 1330 1350 1360 1000 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 42.10 41.3 41 41.2 41.5 45 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 46.00 45.74 45.74 45.92 45.75 45.86 percent [+]
Wages 17108.00 17237 17242 17245 17245 17245 ARS/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 2537.70 2470 2485 2550 2650 3700 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 7560.00 7560 7560 7560 6810 7010 ARS/Month [+]
Population 43.13 43.61 43.73 43.85 43.98 45.57 Million [+]
Living Wage Family 12400.00 12400 12400 12400 12400 13300 ARS/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 6660.00 6800 6900 7000 7200 8000 ARS/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 7100.00 7300 7400 7500 7700 1790 ARS/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 16400.00 17700 18300 19000 19500 26700 ARS/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Inflation Rate 40.50 46 47 40 34 10 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 2.40 2.6 2.5 1.5 1.4 1.1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 113.75 119 125 127 128 150 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 1079.50 1250 1300 1410 1540 2130 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 949.61 1023 1029 1033 1035 1080 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 155.30 159 159 158 158 158 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 111.00 120 122 124 125 129 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 11.13 1956 1956 1956 1956 1956 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Interest Rate 130.51 26 25.25 24 22.5 12 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 26.23 25 22 20 20 11 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 674209.00 731840 784032 839482 898453 1432662 ARS Million [+]
Money Supply M1 769207.10 805007 827778 850390 872830 957789 ARS Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1058136.10 1170000 1170000 1170000 1100032 1370000 ARS Million [+]
Money Supply M3 1718358.00 1545486 1548577 1556320 1564102 1851923 ARS Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 21.20 17.89 17.89 17.89 578 15.15 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 2321844.01 2378879 2431518 2457387 2467594 2477723 USD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 31993.00 31176 32832 33815 34568 37298 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Balance of Trade -114.00 500 720 810 900 -10 USD Million [+]
Exports 4715.00 5400 5500 5690 5700 6940 USD Million [+]
Imports 4829.00 4900 4780 4890 4900 6950 USD Million [+]
Current Account -2679.00 -3270 -3000 -2800 -2000 -4000 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -0.90 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 percent [+]
External Debt 188265.64 194525 199604 200282 201747 180000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 139.90 135 135 134 137 135 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 3870.75 1560 1560 1560 2740 6510 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 788.00 723 700 721 669 727 USD Millions [+]
Remittances 1078.00 1038 1034 1031 1028 996 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1483988.00 1453841 1715217 1128758 1205426 1431449 [+]
Gold Reserves 61.74 61.74 61.74 61.74 61.74 61.74 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 536.00 531 531 531 531 531 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 0.50 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.53 1.75 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 48.40 52.56 52.56 52.56 54 57 percent [+]
Government Budget -5.40 -4.9 -4.5 -4.5 -4.5 -2.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -62958.70 -54587 -44805 -55760 -45336 -55572 ARS Million [+]
Government Spending 94928.00 100262 90168 93743 94353 107000 ARS Million [+]
Government Revenues 124103.40 157064 156299 148790 158306 155410 ARS Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 187062.10 194854 195233 196653 197533 197582 ARS Million [+]
Military Expenditure 5342.00 5702 5757 5811 5926 7266 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Industrial Production -8.00 -5.9 -2.2 -1.5 0.2 2.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.60 -0.5 -0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 63.90 63.49 63.62 63.65 63.64 63.64 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 1786.00 3620 -7632 -19408 -8373 7441 ARS Million [+]
Car Production 37832.00 32900 32900 32900 39815 40900 Units [+]
Car Registrations 56.00 50 49 48 49 58 Thousand [+]
Leading Economic Index -1.40 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.81 3.79 3.79 3.79 3.79 4 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 104.00 106 106 106 105 98 [+]
Corruption Index 32.00 32 32 32 32 39 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 107.00 107 107 107 113 103 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 116.00 121 121 121 119 119 [+]
Steel Production 376.64 386 385 387 388 388 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 43.93 42.8 43.2 45.8 49 53 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -44.76 -1.6 -2 -0.5 -1 1.1 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 21.00 26 24 25 23 17 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 565770.00 500000 510000 540000 525000 585000 ARS Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.13 1.16 1.16 1.17 1.17 1.17 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Housing Index 558.16 510 4900 450 500 640 SQ. METRE THO [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 21.00 21 21 21 21 21 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 44.00 44 44 44 44 44 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 27.00 27 27 27 27 27 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Argentina including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Argentina economy. 12/8/2016