Argentina | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.4 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 7.60 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.2 9 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 40.50 47 40 34 30 10 percent [+]
Interest Rate 24.75 22.75 21.25 20.25 18.75 12.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -106.00 720 810 900 740 -10 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 48.40 52.56 52.56 54 52.88 57 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 15.59 15.64 15.8 15.95 16.26 18.59 [+]
Stock Market 19705.10 19000 18800 18600 18200 15400 points [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.4 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate -2.10 -0.3 2 2.3 2.2 2 percent [+]
GDP 583.17 530 530 530 530 650 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 689989.00 676000 768000 718000 720000 950000 ARS Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 130346.00 125000 158000 151000 160000 180000 ARS Million [+]
GDP per capita 10514.59 12500 12500 12500 12500 13400 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 19126.34 19200 19200 19200 19200 22000 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 33005.11 35000 103500 35000 35000 38000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Construction 19356.06 19000 20000 23000 24000 30000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 123432.15 111700 117000 123000 123500 136000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Mining 21638.69 21912 22034 26900 22065 24222 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 32784.96 33205 33473 33639 33763 36331 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Services 93178.44 96600 96700 99000 100000 133000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Transport 57365.15 62700 63000 64000 64500 67000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 12042.83 12756 12572 13005 12584 13553 ARS Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 7.60 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.2 9 percent [+]
Employed Persons 11459.00 112300 11240 13000 13900 15500 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 937.00 1330 1350 1360 1350 1000 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 41.90 41 41.2 41.5 42.2 45 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 45.30 45.06 45.48 45.57 45.4 45.42 percent [+]
Wages 26566.00 21424 21440 21449 21453 21454 ARS/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 2781.74 2485 2550 2650 2800 3700 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 8062.00 8162 8555 6810 9370 7010 ARS/Month [+]
Population 43.59 43.26 43.38 43.49 43.61 45.57 Million [+]
Living Wage Family 9308.20 12400 12400 12400 12400 13300 ARS/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 7055.10 6900 7000 7200 7400 8000 ARS/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 7100.00 7400 7500 7700 8100 1790 ARS/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 16400.00 18300 19000 19500 20350 26700 ARS/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 40.50 47 40 34 30 10 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 2.50 2.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 121.42 125 127 128 135 150 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 1279.70 1300 1410 1540 1650 2130 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 949.61 1029 1033 1035 1037 1080 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 152.60 150 150 150 150 150 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 112.90 122 124 125 126 129 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 11.13 15.41 14.96 14.63 14.49 14.77 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 24.75 22.75 21.25 20.25 18.75 12.75 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 23.57 22 20 20 19 11 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 814742.00 837026 899049 955725 1010856 1432662 ARS Million [+]
Money Supply M1 951381.00 968123 1011649 1053576 1095447 957789 ARS Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1276950.00 1170000 1170000 1422454 1240000 1370000 ARS Million [+]
Money Supply M3 1960259.00 1548577 1556320 1564102 1571923 1851923 ARS Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 21.20 17.89 17.89 540 540 15.15 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 2704590.92 2787422 2931523 3023169 3075213 3143638 USD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 41757.00 42494 46220 48727 50643 57488 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -106.00 720 810 900 740 -10 USD Million [+]
Exports 4234.00 5500 5690 5700 5840 6940 USD Million [+]
Imports 4340.00 4780 4890 4900 5100 6950 USD Million [+]
Current Account -2970.00 -3000 -2800 -2000 -2500 -4000 USD Million [+]
External Debt 188777.69 196699 196813 198216 198881 180000 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -0.90 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 percent [+]
Terms of Trade 135.20 134 134 137 135 135 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 2025.38 1560 1560 2608 2490 6510 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 788.00 700 721 669 750 727 USD Millions [+]
Remittances 1078.00 1059 1052 1045 1038 996 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1483988.00 1715217 1128758 1205426 1443714 1431449 [+]
Gold Reserves 56.76 54.68 52.91 52.94 52.87 52.83 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 536.00 531 531 531 531 531 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 0.50 1.67 1.67 1.13 1.07 1.75 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 48.40 52.56 52.56 54 52.88 57 percent [+]
Government Budget -5.40 -4.5 -4.5 -4.5 -4.5 -2.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 3587.20 -13662 -33346 -27118 -29089 -28615 ARS Million [+]
Government Spending 100805.00 91840 94905 98654 104000 107000 ARS Million [+]
Government Revenues 212434.30 143845 236827 149794 218571 187815 ARS Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 208847.10 226729 233011 223126 227267 227693 ARS Million [+]
Military Expenditure 5342.00 5702 5757 5811 5926 7266 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Industrial Production -1.10 -2.2 -1.5 0.2 1.1 2.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.60 -0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 60.60 62.37 63.34 62.99 63.23 63.13 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 22357.00 -7315 -19408 -3512 15955 7800 ARS Million [+]
Car Production 24036.00 32900 32900 35041 34900 40900 Units [+]
Car Registrations 65.27 49 48 49 52 58 Thousand [+]
Leading Economic Index 1.30 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.81 3.79 3.79 3.79 3.79 4 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 104.00 106 106 105 106 98 [+]
Corruption Index 36.00 32 32 32 35 39 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 95.00 107 107 109 106 103 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 116.00 121 121 119 121 119 [+]
Steel Production 305.13 326 349 355 357 358 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 40.95 41.5 45.8 49 50.94 53 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -44.76 -2 -0.5 -1 1.1 1.1 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 22.80 24 25 23 22 17 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 477895.00 510000 540000 525000 557000 585000 ARS Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.19 1.16 1.17 1.17 1.2 1.17 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Housing Index 567.85 4900 450 500 515 640 SQ. METRE THO [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 21.00 21 21 21 21 21 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 44.00 44 44 44 44 44 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 27.00 27 27 27 27 27 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Argentina including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Argentina economy. 3/27/2017