Argentina | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.20 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.4 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 8.50 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.2 9 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 40.50 47 40 34 30 10 percent [+]
Interest Rate 24.75 22.75 21.25 20.25 18.75 12.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 100.00 720 810 900 740 -10 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 48.40 52.56 52.56 54 52.88 57 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 15.90 15.84 16 16.15 16.31 18.64 [+]
Stock Market 18633.46 16200 16000 15900 15700 13200 points [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.20 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.4 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate -3.80 -0.3 1.8 1.5 1.2 2 percent [+]
GDP 548.06 530 530 530 530 650 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 689712.00 676000 768000 718000 720000 950000 ARS Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 136804.00 125000 158000 151000 160000 180000 ARS Million [+]
GDP per capita 10514.59 12500 12500 12500 12500 13400 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 17554.12 19200 19200 19200 19200 22000 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 32414.27 35000 103500 35000 35000 38000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Construction 20407.58 19000 20000 23000 24000 30000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 119261.72 111700 117000 123000 123500 136000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Mining 22386.74 22638 22451 26900 22475 24222 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 32745.78 33506 33678 33798 34064 36809 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Services 93774.35 96600 96700 99000 100000 133000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Transport 57063.23 62700 63000 64000 64500 67000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 12827.49 12968 12885 13112 13047 14071 ARS Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 8.50 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.2 9 percent [+]
Employed Persons 11477.00 112300 11240 13000 13900 15500 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 1069.00 1330 1350 1360 1350 1000 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 42.10 41 41.2 41.5 42.2 45 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 46.00 45.99 46.13 46.03 46.13 46.13 percent [+]
Wages 26566.00 21424 21440 21449 21453 21454 ARS/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 2781.74 2470 2485 2550 2650 3700 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 8060.00 7560 7560 6810 7560 7010 ARS/Month [+]
Population 43.59 43.26 43.38 43.49 43.61 45.57 Million [+]
Living Wage Family 12400.00 12400 12400 12400 12400 13300 ARS/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 6660.00 6800 6900 7000 7200 8000 ARS/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 7100.00 7400 7500 7700 8100 1790 ARS/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 16400.00 18300 19000 19500 20350 26700 ARS/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 40.50 47 40 34 30 10 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.20 2.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 116.93 125 127 128 135 150 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 1189.50 1300 1410 1540 1650 2130 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 949.61 1029 1033 1035 1037 1080 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 155.30 159 158 158 158 158 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 111.00 122 124 125 126 129 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 11.13 15.41 14.96 14.63 14.49 14.77 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 24.75 22.75 21.25 20.25 18.75 12.75 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 25.65 22 20 20 19 11 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 821664.00 834802 890818 945780 999484 1432662 ARS Million [+]
Money Supply M1 847046.50 796563 797022 797059 797049 957789 ARS Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1157638.40 1170000 1170000 1097748 1240000 1370000 ARS Million [+]
Money Supply M3 1850387.60 1548577 1556320 1564102 1571923 1851923 ARS Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 21.20 17.89 17.89 540 540 15.15 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 2405793.55 2527583 2571323 2593764 2604351 2614765 USD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 32148.00 32832 33815 34568 35164 37298 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade 100.00 720 810 900 740 -10 USD Million [+]
Exports 4822.00 5500 5690 5700 5840 6940 USD Million [+]
Imports 4721.00 4780 4890 4900 5100 6950 USD Million [+]
Current Account -2970.00 -3270 -3000 -2800 -2000 -4000 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -0.90 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 percent [+]
External Debt 188777.69 196699 196813 198216 198881 180000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 139.90 135 134 137 135 135 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 2025.38 1560 1560 2608 2490 6510 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 788.00 700 721 669 750 727 USD Millions [+]
Remittances 1078.00 1059 1052 1045 1038 996 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1483988.00 1715217 1128758 1205426 1443714 1431449 [+]
Gold Reserves 61.74 61.74 61.74 61.74 61.74 61.74 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 536.00 531 531 531 531 531 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 0.50 1.67 1.67 1.13 1.07 1.75 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 48.40 52.56 52.56 54 52.88 57 percent [+]
Government Budget -5.40 -4.5 -4.5 -4.5 -4.5 -2.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -14060.60 -31724 -45083 -31073 -44699 -44221 ARS Million [+]
Government Spending 99597.00 94169 96944 100597 104000 107000 ARS Million [+]
Government Revenues 192023.00 153080 178802 164172 172557 175108 ARS Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 206083.60 196340 198560 199527 199767 199741 ARS Million [+]
Military Expenditure 5342.00 5702 5757 5811 5926 7266 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Industrial Production -4.10 -2.2 -1.5 0.2 1.1 2.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.60 -0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 68.40 65.12 66.03 65.66 65.81 65.76 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -164.00 -6387 -19408 -1834 11051 5913 ARS Million [+]
Car Production 40087.00 32900 32900 42956 34900 40900 Units [+]
Car Registrations 72.00 49 48 49 52 58 Thousand [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.00 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.81 3.79 3.79 3.79 3.79 4 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 104.00 106 106 105 106 98 [+]
Corruption Index 32.00 32 32 32 35 39 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 107.00 107 107 109 106 103 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 116.00 121 121 119 121 119 [+]
Steel Production 365.00 380 383 384 385 385 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 44.48 43.2 45.8 49 50.94 53 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -44.76 -2 -0.5 -1 1.1 1.1 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 12.50 24 25 23 22 17 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 501356.00 510000 540000 525000 557000 585000 ARS Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.07 1.16 1.17 1.17 1.2 1.17 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Housing Index 519.09 4900 450 500 515 640 SQ. METRE THO [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 21.00 21 21 21 21 21 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 44.00 44 44 44 44 44 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 27.00 27 27 27 27 27 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Argentina including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Argentina economy. 1/20/2017