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GOVERNMENT SPENDING MAY LEAD US INTO A DOUBLE DIP RECESSION


Published: 7/23/2009 12:17:45 PM
By:
Anna Fedec, contact@tradingeconomics.com 

Government spending is rising day-by-day. The list includes: $787bn spent for the fiscal stimulus, at least $600bn for the TARP funding, unlimited resources for bank takeovers, loans to the financial institutions, and so on. But on the wake of declining tax revenues, how are those programs being financed? And more importantly, who is paying for it?


Indeed, its common sense among many politicians that during difficult times, economies need to be boosted either by fiscal or by monetary policy. For instance, the US government is using fiscal stimulus to revive consumer demand, stimulate investments and stop employment decline. And the Federal Reserve is lowering interest rates, purchasing treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to ensure credit availability. The problem is that in many cases countries don’t have enough resources to provide fiscal stimulus. So many of them uses so called debt monetarization. In fact, one of the best ways to finance spending is to issue bonds and sell them to investors. However, treasuries may go back to country balance sheet as the Fed prints extra money and buys bonds back in the open market operations. Yet, the increase in money supply typically leads to higher inflation because there is more money available in the system for the same quantity of goods. And with rising consumer prices everyone loses purchasing power because our savings are worth less as we need to pay more for the same products. To make things even worst, the next step in this vicious-circle is generally higher interest rates as lenders demand an higher compensation for the lost value of their money.

In sum, conducting fiscal and monetary stimulus has short-term benefits but also long-term costs because the credit availability boosted by open market operations is likely to end at the same level where the operation was initiated. So, after an initial boost where investors become more confident, living conditions get suddenly worst. Consumers spend less, production is further cut and unemployment rate start rising even further.

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Economic Indicators Table


CountryGDP Billion US$GDP GrowthInterest RateInflationUnemploymentCurrent Account
United States 142561.60%0.25%1.20%9.60%-109
Euro Area 124561.00%1.00%1.60%10.00%-25
Japan 50680.10%0.10%-0.90%5.20%1047
China 490910.30%5.31%3.30%4.20%53600
Germany 33472.20%1.00%1.20%7.60%2
France 26490.60%1.00%1.90%10.00%-3
United Kingdom 21751.20%0.50%3.10%7.80%-10
Italy 21130.40%1.00%1.80%8.50%-4393
Brazil 15721.20%10.75%4.60%7.00%-5180
Spain 14600.20%1.00%1.90%20.00%-5
Canada 13360.50%0.75%1.80%8.00%-11
India 12968.80%4.50%13.73%7.32%-13
Russia 12315.20%7.75%5.50%6.80%33318
South Korea 9291.50%2.25%2.60%3.70%5038
Australia 9251.20%4.50%3.10%5.30%-5640
Mexico 875-0.35%4.50%3.64%5.51%-1
Netherlands 7920.90%1.00%1.60%5.50%12372
Turkey 6170.10%6.50%7.58%11.00%-2997
Indonesia 5402.80%6.50%6.22%7.41%1554
Switzerland 5000.40%0.25%0.30%3.90%20
Belgium 4690.70%1.00%2.57%8.60%-1
Poland 4300.50%3.50%2.00%11.40%-1064
Sweden 4061.20%0.50%1.10%8.80%64
Austria 3850.90%1.00%1.80%3.90%1073
Norway 382-0.10%2.00%1.90%3.60%97648
Saudi Arabia 3690.60%2.00%5.51%10.50%22765
Greece 330-1.50%1.00%5.50%11.00%250
Venezuela 3149.70%17.98%30.90%8.40%7181
Denmark 3100.50%0.75%2.30%4.20%8
Argentina 3093.00%9.93%11.20%8.30%-365
South Africa 2864.60%6.50%4.20%23.20%-116132
Thailand 2643.80%1.50%3.40%1.54%681
United Arab Emirates261-2.10%1.80%11.10%20.60%82
Finland 238-0.40%1.00%1.10%8.50%1
Colombia 2311.30%3.00%2.24%12.80%-1396
Portugal 2280.20%1.00%1.80%10.60%-2057
Ireland 2272.66%1.00%-0.10%13.70%-1622
Hong Kong 2152.40%0.50%2.80%4.60%26
Israel 1951.17%1.75%2.40%7.20%1584
Malaysia 192-2.60%2.75%1.90%3.70%30449
Czech Republic 1900.80%0.75%1.90%8.70%621
Singapore 18224.00%0.03%3.10%2.30%14942
Pakistan 1672.00%13.00%12.69%5.50%-1548
Chile 1644.30%2.00%2.30%8.50%47
Hungary 1290.00%5.25%4.00%11.10%344
Peru 12711.92%2.50%1.82%7.60%267
New Zealand 1250.60%3.00%1.80%6.80%0
Luxembourg 52-2.60%1.00%2.47%5.30%1858
Slovenia 48-0.50%1.00%2.10%10.50%-79
Iceland 120.60%8.00%4.80%7.60%-27

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