Belarus | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Belarus including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Belarus economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 0.90 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 6.30 6.1 5.7 5.4 5.2 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 14.00 12 10 8 7.5 4 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -134.40 -240 -147 -244 -147 -244 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 29.60 31.18 31.73 32.17 32.53 33.83 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 1.87 1.89 1.91 1.96 1.94 2.24 [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.30 0.5 0.7 1 1.2 2.2 percent [+]
GDP 54.61 64.66 60.49 67.85 54.64 76.47 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 19489.80 18875 18852 18856 18855 18855 BYN Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 6079.20 4714 4713 4713 4713 4713 BYN Billion [+]
GDP per capita 6174.20 6022 6106 6211 5952 6603 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 16662.00 16531 16477 16777 16061 18542 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 5107.90 11746 11746 11746 11746 11746 BYR Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 14731.50 14620 11442 14567 11494 14284 BYR Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 48167.70 47682 48590 49366 47297 48328 BYR Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 1485.50 1370 1268 1270 1310 1295 BYR Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 8529.50 8510 7976 8500 7985 8450 BYR Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 13776.60 14865 14865 14865 14865 14865 BYR Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 9839.20 11191 11360 11721 12261 16046 BYR Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 0.90 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 percent [+]
Employed Persons 4372.60 4364 4357 4352 4347 4319 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 43.10 42.7 41.79 41.58 41.61 41.64 Thousand [+]
Wages 770.60 759 764 771 779 839 BYN/Month [+]
Wage Growth 8.62 9.54 10.17 10.33 10.43 10.65 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 265.00 252 252 2530000 292 3310000 BYR/Month [+]
Population 9.50 9.5 9.51 9.52 9.53 9.59 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 55.00 55 55 55 55 55 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Wages High Skilled 4500000.00 4500000 4500000 4500000 4500000 4500000 BYR/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 3000000.00 3100000 3100000 3100000 3100000 3100000 BYR/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 3973648.00 3967043 3966930 3966914 3966912 3966912 BYR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 2690489.00 2614703 2577828 2541616 2506055 2154642 BYR/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 6.30 6.1 5.7 5.4 5.2 3.8 percent [+]
Core Consumer Prices 100.10 101 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 101.00 101 101 101 100 100 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 7.50 7.29 7.41 7.42 7.41 7.42 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 10.00 6.5 5.9 5.4 5 3.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.70 0.59 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.66 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 14.00 12 10 8 7.5 4 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 1907.59 1951 1966 1954 1949 1949 BYN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 5080.32 5114 5071 5129 5073 5126 BYN Million [+]
Money Supply M2 10885.97 11276 11305 11288 11280 11280 BYN Million [+]
Money Supply M3 33843.17 33570 33834 33876 34024 34815 BYN Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 5108.70 5137 5173 5156 5169 5163 USD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 11.00 11.91 11.94 11.86 11.83 11.84 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -134.40 -240 -147 -244 -147 -244 USD Million [+]
Exports 2348.30 2344 2350 2351 2351 2351 USD Million [+]
Imports 2482.70 2304 2317 2321 2321 2320 USD Million [+]
Current Account -603.20 -284 -110 -488 -678 -430 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.70 -6 -5.5 -5.01 -5.07 -5.87 percent [+]
External Debt 37567.40 36956 36600 36551 36277 35856 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows 475.40 112 112 357 -1.55 124 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 46.16 43.81 44.18 45.43 45.78 46.37 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 1.36 0.98 0.85 0.72 0.64 0.56 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 276260.00 180675 200107 219540 227876 155595 [+]
Weapons Sales 81.00 98.21 76.33 54.45 70.43 118 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 204.60 262 61.77 266 352 241 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 25.00 25 25.01 25 25.01 25 BBL/D/1K [+]
Remittances 124.20 123 120 121 120 120 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 29.60 31.18 31.73 32.17 32.53 33.83 percent [+]
Government Budget 1.80 0.35 0.43 0.5 0.52 0.65 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -30795.00 12861 44220 60583 69171 78535 BYN Thousand [+]
Government Spending 2762.20 2766 2767 2767 2768 2768 BYN Billion [+]
Government Revenues 2291621.00 2294190 2252393 2262671 2230071 2213475 BYN Thousand [+]
Government Debt 35005364.00 35299177 35005014 34871209 34739811 34128587 BYN Thousand [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 2322416.00 2214023 2322127 2275192 2276670 2282315 BYN Thousand [+]
Military Expenditure 978.90 1000 995 990 996 1006 USD Million [+]
Government Spending To GDP 28.80 31.97 32.69 33.4 34.29 42.76 percent of GDP [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Industrial Production 5.40 5.8 6.34 6.54 6.62 6.68 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -4.50 4.62 1.93 1.03 0.66 0.52 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 5.80 6.05 6.27 6.35 6.38 6.4 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 156.20 276 279 279 279 279 BYN Billion [+]
Steel Production 200.00 196 194 194 194 194 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Corruption Index 40.00 38 40 43 43 41 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 79.00 83 69 56 54 47 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 37.00 43 45 46 48 72 [+]
Mining Production 2.90 4.27 4.87 4.8 4.62 4.44 percent [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.30 0.57 0.68 0.67 0.68 0.68 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Spending 9541.90 9842 9986 9915 9950 9938 BYN Billion [+]
Consumer Credit 1810.70 1889 1912 1912 1908 1906 BYN Million [+]
Retail Sales Mom -0.50 -1.67 -1.51 0.8 0.2 0.15 percent [+]
Retail Sales Yoy 0.50 2.82 3.34 3.61 3.73 3.81 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.67 0.66 0.68 0.69 0.7 0.74 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 13.00 12.5 12.75 13 13 13 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 34.00 34 34 34 34 34 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 percent [+]