Belarus | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Belarus including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Belarus economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 0.90 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 6.40 6.1 5.7 5.4 5.2 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 14.00 12 10 8 7.5 4 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -154.80 -257 -163 -262 -163 -262 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 29.00 31.93 32.57 33.07 33.47 34.99 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 1.87 1.89 1.91 1.96 1.94 2.24 [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.30 0.5 0.7 1 1.2 2.2 percent [+]
GDP 54.61 64.66 60.49 67.85 54.64 76.47 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 19489.80 18875 18852 18856 18855 18855 BYN Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 6079.20 4714 4713 4713 4713 4713 BYN Billion [+]
GDP per capita 6174.20 6022 6106 6211 5952 6603 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 16662.00 16531 16477 16777 16061 18542 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 5107.90 11746 11746 11746 11746 11746 BYR Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 14731.50 14620 11442 14567 11494 14284 BYR Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 48167.70 47682 48590 49366 47297 48328 BYR Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 1485.50 1370 1268 1270 1310 1295 BYR Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 8529.50 8510 7976 8500 7985 8450 BYR Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 13776.60 14865 14865 14865 14865 14865 BYR Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 9839.20 11191 11360 11721 12261 16046 BYR Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 0.90 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 percent [+]
Employed Persons 4372.60 4364 4357 4352 4347 4319 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 43.10 42.7 41.79 41.58 41.61 41.64 Thousand [+]
Wages 770.60 759 764 771 779 839 BYN/Month [+]
Wage Growth 8.62 9.54 10.17 10.33 10.43 10.65 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 265.00 252 252 2530000 292 3310000 BYR/Month [+]
Population 9.50 9.5 9.51 9.52 9.53 9.59 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 55.00 55 55 55 55 55 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Wages High Skilled 4500000.00 4500000 4500000 4500000 4500000 4500000 BYR/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 3000000.00 3100000 3100000 3100000 3100000 3100000 BYR/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 3973648.00 3967043 3966930 3966914 3966912 3966912 BYR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 2690489.00 2614703 2577828 2541616 2506055 2154642 BYR/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 6.40 6.1 5.7 5.4 5.2 3.8 percent [+]
Core Consumer Prices 100.10 101 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 100.50 101 101 101 100 100 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 7.50 6.49 6.36 6.36 6.37 6.37 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 8.30 6.5 5.9 5.4 5 3.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30 0.54 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.62 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 14.00 12 10 8 7.5 4 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 1779.27 1759 1747 1745 1747 1748 BYN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 4938.13 4884 4805 4840 4791 4832 BYN Million [+]
Money Supply M2 10939.42 11028 10996 10966 10955 10951 BYN Million [+]
Money Supply M3 33154.85 33177 33277 33232 33248 33272 BYN Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 5016.10 4991 5011 4997 5007 5002 USD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 11.00 11.91 11.94 11.86 11.83 11.84 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -154.80 -257 -163 -262 -163 -262 USD Million [+]
Exports 1953.20 1926 1925 1925 1925 1925 USD Million [+]
Imports 2108.00 2177 2184 2186 2185 2185 USD Million [+]
Current Account -603.20 -284 -110 -488 -678 -430 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.70 -6 -5.5 -5.01 -5.07 -5.87 percent [+]
External Debt 37567.40 36956 36600 36551 36277 35856 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows 475.40 112 112 357 -1.55 124 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 46.16 43.81 44.18 45.43 45.78 46.37 Tonnes [+]
Weapons Sales 81.00 98.21 76.33 54.45 70.43 118 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 1.36 0.98 0.85 0.72 0.64 0.56 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 276260.00 180675 200107 219540 227876 155595 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 117.80 270 72.23 301 373 261 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 25.00 25 25.01 25 25.01 25 BBL/D/1K [+]
Remittances 63.30 67.36 64.13 66.35 64.47 65.47 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 29.00 31.93 32.57 33.07 33.47 34.99 percent [+]
Government Budget 1.80 0.35 0.43 0.5 0.52 0.65 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -33711.00 -43130 7478 36043 52039 72368 BYN Thousand [+]
Government Spending 2762.20 2766 2767 2767 2768 2768 BYN Billion [+]
Government Revenues 1756757.00 2289932 2248257 2259202 2226578 2211205 BYN Thousand [+]
Government Debt 35458872.00 35836270 35736280 35716619 35696412 35590439 BYN Thousand [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 1790468.00 2272885 2366720 2337620 2331867 2339914 BYN Thousand [+]
Military Expenditure 978.90 1000 995 990 996 1006 USD Million [+]
Government Spending To GDP 28.80 31.97 32.69 33.4 34.29 42.76 percent of GDP [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Industrial Production 4.30 5.35 5.76 5.92 5.98 6.02 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 14.00 3.37 1.88 0.99 0.68 0.53 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 5.10 4.89 5.05 5.08 5.1 5.11 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 156.20 276 279 279 279 279 BYN Billion [+]
Steel Production 200.00 196 194 194 194 194 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Corruption Index 40.00 38 40 43 43 41 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 79.00 83 69 56 54 47 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 37.00 43 45 46 48 72 [+]
Mining Production 2.10 4.75 5.2 4.94 4.65 4.43 percent [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.30 0.57 0.68 0.67 0.68 0.68 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Spending 9541.90 9842 9986 9915 9950 9938 BYN Billion [+]
Consumer Credit 1740.20 1748 1740 1737 1737 1738 BYN Million [+]
Retail Sales Mom 15.00 -1.56 -1.79 0.25 0.07 0 percent [+]
Retail Sales Yoy 2.80 4.11 5.05 5.47 5.64 5.75 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.65 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.71 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 13.00 12.5 12.75 13 13 13 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 34.00 34 34 34 34 34 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 percent [+]