Wednesday January 18 2017
Canada Leaves Key Rate Steady At 0.5%
BoC | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 0.5 percent on January 18th, 2017 as widely expected, saying inflation is expected to move close to the 2 percent target in the months ahead while consumption and fiscal measures are expected to support growth in 2017. The Bank Rate was also left on hold at 0.75 percent and the deposit rate at 0.25 percent.

Statement by the Bank of Canada:

Uncertainty about the global outlook is undiminished, particularly with respect to policies in the United States. The Bank has made initial assumptions about prospective tax policies only, resulting in a modest upward revision to its US growth outlook. Overall, the global economy is strengthening largely as expected and prices of some commodities, including oil, have risen. The rapid back-up in global bond yields, partly reflecting market anticipation of US fiscal expansion, has pulled up Canadian yields relative to the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

In contrast to the United States, Canada’s economy continues to operate with material excess capacity. While employment growth has remained firm, indicators still point to significant slack in the labour market. The resource sector’s adjustment to past commodity price declines appears to be largely complete, but negative wealth and income effects will persist. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar has strengthened along with the US dollar against other currencies, exacerbating ongoing competitiveness challenges and muting the outlook for exports. Consumption is expected to remain solid, while residential investment will be tempered by previously announced changes to housing finance rules and by mortgage rates that have risen in response to higher bond yields. Federal and provincial fiscal measures are still expected to support growth in 2017.

Bearing in mind the important assumptions embedded in its forecast, the Bank projects that Canada’s real GDP will grow by 2.1 per cent in both 2017 and 2018. This implies a return to full capacity around mid-2018, in line with October’s projection. 

Inflation in Canada has been lower than anticipated since October, mainly because of declines in food prices. Measures of core inflation are below 2 per cent, reflecting material excess capacity in the economy. As consumer energy prices rise and the impact of lower food prices dissipates, inflation is expected to move close to the 2 per cent target in the months ahead and remain there throughout the projection horizon while excess capacity is being absorbed.

In the context of a projection that is largely unchanged, the Bank’s Governing Council judges that the current stance of monetary policy is still appropriate and maintains the target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. Governing Council will continue to assess the impact of ongoing developments, mindful of the significant uncertainties weighing on the outlook.








Wednesday January 18 2017
US Industrial Output Rises The Most In Over 2 Years
Federal Reserve | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

Industrial production in the United States grew by 0.8 percent month-over-month in December 2016, following an upwardly revised 0.7 percent fall in November and better than market expectations of a 0.6 percent rise. It was the largest gain since November 2014, as utility output jumped 6.6 percent, its sharpest increase since December 1989.

Utilities output rebounded 6.6 percent, following an upwardly revised 4.6 percent contraction in the previous month, largely because of a return to more normal temperatures following unseasonably warm weather in November; the gain last month was the largest since December 1989. Also, manufacturing output expanded 0.2 percent, after falling by 0.1 percent in November but missing market consensus of a 0.4 percent increase.

Meanwhile, mining production showed no growth, after falling by a revised 0.7 percent in November. 

Compared to the same month of 2015, industrial output grew by 0.5 percent, boosted by utilities (+6.2 percent) and manufacturing (+0.2 percent) while mining fell (-2.8 percent).

Industrial production, however, fell 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter compared with the same period of 2015.

Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.6 percentage point in December to 75.5 percent, a rate that was 4.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2015) average.




Wednesday January 18 2017
US Inflation Rate at 2-1/2-Year High Of 2.1%
BLS | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

Consumer prices in the United States increased 2.1 percent year-on-year in December 2016, following a 1.7 percent rise in November and matching market expectations. The inflation rate accelerated for the fifth consecutive month to the highest since June of 2014, boosted by gasoline and shelter cost.

Year-on-year, energy prices jumped 5.4 percent, following a 1.1 percent rise in November. Inflation accelerated for transportation services (2.8 percent from 2.5 percent in November) and was steady for shelter (3.6 percent) and medical care (3.9 percent). In addition, food prices declined at a slower 0.2 percent (-0.4 percent in November). 

Annual core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose to 2.2 percent from 2.1 percent in the previous two months and matching expectations.  

On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.3 percent, higher than 0.2 percent in November and also in line with forecasts, boosted by shelter (0.3 percent) and gasoline (3 percent). In contrast, food cost declined, offsetting an increase in the index for food away from home and leaving the overall food index unchanged for the sixth consecutive month. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.2 percent, the same as in November. Along with shelter, prices went up for motor vehicle insurance, medical care, education, airline fares, used cars and trucks and new vehicles but fell for apparel and communication. 




Wednesday January 18 2017
Eurozone Inflation Rate Confirmed At Nearly 3-Year High
Eurostat | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

Eurozone's consumer prices increased by 1.1 percent year-on-year in December 2016, following a 0.6 percent gain in the previous month and in line with the preliminary estimate. It was the highest inflation rate since September 2013, mainly boosted by rising prices of fuels.

The largest upward impacts to euro area annual inflation came from fuels for transport (+0.21 percentage points), vegetables (+0.07 pp) and heating oil (+0.05 pp), while gas (-0.10 pp), telecommunications (-0.05 pp) and personal care products (-0.04 pp) had the biggest downward impacts.

The highest annual rates were recorded in Estonia (2.4 percent), Belgium (2.2 percent), the Czech Republic and Latvia (both 2.1 percent). By contrast, negative annual rates were observed in Bulgaria (-0.5 percent), Ireland (-0.2 percent) and Romania (-0.1 percent).

Core inflation which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco was recorded at 0.9 percent compared with 0.8 percent in November. Excluding energy only, the inflation rate rose to 1 percent from 0.8 percent in the previous month.  

On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.5 percent after falling by 0.1 percent in November, in line with market expectations.

In the full year 2016, the average CPI rose 0.2 percent after showing no growth in 2015.




Wednesday January 18 2017
UK Unemployment Rate Steady At 11-Year Low Of 4.8%
ONS | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

UK jobless rate remained at 4.8 percent in the three months to November of 2016, the same as in the previous period and in line with market expectations. The employment rate held at an all-time high of 74.5 percent and wages grew at a faster pace while the number of people in work fell by 9,000.

There were 1.60 million unemployed people, 52,000 fewer than for June to August 2016 and 81,000 fewer than for a year earlier. There were 883,000 unemployed men, 8,000 fewer than for June to August 2016 and 41,000 fewer than for a year earlier. There were 721,000 unemployed women, 44,000 fewer than for June to August 2016 and 40,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

31.80 million people in work, 9,000 less than in June to August 2016 but 294,000 more than for a year earlier. 23.25 million were working full-time, 209,000 more than for a year earlier. There were 8.55 million people working part-time, 86,000 more than for a year earlier.

The employment rate  was 74.5 percent, virtually unchanged compared with June to August 2016 but higher than for a year earlier (74 percent). 

There were 8.89 million people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive, 85,000 more than for June to August 2016 but 63,000 fewer than for a year earlier. The inactivity rate was 21.7 percent, higher than for June to August 2016 (21.5 percent) but lower than for a year earlier (21.9 percent).

Average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 2.8% including bonuses and by 2.7% excluding bonuses compared with a year earlier.




Wednesday January 18 2017
South Africa Inflation Rate at 10-Month High Of 6.8%
Statistic of South Africa | Deborah Neves | deborah.neves@tradingeconomics.com

Consumer prices in South Africa rose 6.8 percent year-on-year in December of 2016, following a 6.6 percent increase in November and above market expectations of 6.5 percent. It was the highest inflation rate since February as cost increased at a faster pace for food and non-alcoholic beverages and housing and utilities.

Year-on-year, prices increased more for food and non-alcoholic beverages (+11.7 percent from +11.6 percent in November), housing and utilities (+5.6 percent from +5.4 percent), miscellaneous goods and services (+7.6 percent from percent +7.5 percent), recreation and culture (+7.6 percent from +6 percent), restaurants and hotels (+7.1 percent from +6.4 percent), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (+5.5 percent from +5 percent) and household contents and services (+4 percent from +3.8 percent). By contrast, prices increased less for transport (+5.7 percent from +6.4 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.4 percent after a 0.3 percent gain in a month earlier. Cost increased for housing and utilities (+1 percent after being flat in November), rose faster for food and non-alcoholic beverages (+0.8 percent from +0.5 percent) while decreased for transport (-0.4 percent from +1.5 percent).

The core inflation which excludes prices of food, non-alcoholic beverages, petrol and energy went up to 5.9 percent from 5.7 percent in the previous month.




Wednesday January 18 2017
German Inflation Rate Confirmed At Highest Since July 2013
Destatis l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

Consumer prices in Germany rose 1.7 percent year-on-year in December of 2016, compared to a 0.8 percent rise in November and matching preliminary estimates. It was the highest inflation rate since July 2013, due to a faster increase in prices of food and services and a surge in cost of transport.

Year-on-year, energy cost (total) increased by 2.5 percent, following a 2.7 percent drop in November. Prices were up sharply for mineral oil products (+9.0 percent, of which light fuel oil: +21.9 percent, motor fuels: +6.0 percent). Prices went up slightly for electricity (+0.9 percent) and solid fuels (+0.1 percent). In contrast, cost fell for central and district heating: -6.4 percent and gas prices: -2.7  percent.

Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages went up 2.3 percent, after gaining 1.2 percent in the previous month. Prices increased markedly for edible fats and cooking oils (+12.3 percent) and vegetables (+9.7 percent). Also, prices were higher for fish and fish products (+3.3 percent), fruits (+1.4 percent) and confectionery (+1.3 percent).

Cost of goods as a whole rose 1.8 percent, following a 0.5 percent rise in the preceding month, mainly as a result of increases in energy and food prices. Cost of services rose 1.5 percent in December, following a 1.1 percent gain in the previous month. Among services, cost went up for: maintenance and repair of vehicles (+2.3 percent), insurance (+2.3 percent) and social services (+4.3 percent). In contrast, cost dropped for telecommunication services (-1.2 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.7 percent, after gaining 0.1 percent in the prior month and in line with consensus. It was the highest figure since March 2016. Cost went up for: energy (+2.3 percent,  including heating oil: +11.7 percent; motor fuels: +3.6 percent) and services (+1.1 percent, mainly due to a 20.9 percent rise in package of holidays). Prices also increased for food and non-alcoholic beverages (+0.7 percent). In contrast, cost of clothing & footwear declined by 2.3 percent.

The harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) rose 1.7 percent from a year earlier, following a 0.7 percent rise in November. On a month-on-month basis, the index increased by 1.0 percent, after remaining unchanged in the preceding month and matching preliminary figures.




Wednesday January 18 2017
Malaysia Inflation Rate Steady at 1.8% in December
Statistics of Malaysia | Chusnul Ch Manan l chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Consumer prices in Malaysia rose 1.8 percent year-on-year in December of 2016, the same as in November but slightly below markets expectations of a 1.9 percent rise. The inflation rate remained at the highest level since May, mainly due to rising prices of food and non alcoholic beverages while inflation for housing & utilities were steady and cost of transport fell much less than in a month earlier. Core consumer prices rose 2.1 percent year-on-year in December, compared to a 2.2 percent gain in November. On a monthly basis, consumer prices were flat, after a 1.0 percent rise in the preceding month.

Year-on-year, prices increased at a faster pace for : recreation services & culture (+3.3 percent from +3.2 percent). Prices rose at a slower pace for :  food & non-alcoholic beverages (+3.7 percent from +3.8 percent in November), alcoholic beverages & tobacco (+0.1 percent from +1.9 percent), education (+1.7 percent from +1.9 percent) and health (+2.4 percent from +2.5 percent). Prices steady for : housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels (2.1 percent); furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance (+1.4 percent); restaurants & hotels (+1.9 percent), and miscellaneous goods & services (+1.8 percent). In contrast, downward prices pressure came from: clothing and footwear (-0.5 percent from -0.5 percent), transport (-0.6 percent from -1.5 percent), and communication (-2.6 percent from -2.7 percent).
 
Among food & non-alcoholic beverages, customers had to pay more for all categories: food (+3.8 percent from +4.0 percent); food at home (+4.1 percent from +4.2 percent); rice, bread & other cereals (+0.7 percent from +0.9 percent); meat (+3.0 percent from +6.0 percent); fish & seafood (+5.6 percent from +4.5 percent); milk & eggs (+0.1 percent from +1.1 percent), oils & fats (+36.9 percent from +36.6 percent), fruits (+2.7 percent from +2.7 percent); vegetables (+4.8 percent from +3.6 percent); sugar, jam, honey, chocolate & confectionary (+2.0 percent from +1.9 percent); food products (+5.4 percent from +5.8 percent), food away from home (+3.5 percent from +3.4 percent) and coffee, tea, cocoa & non-alcoholic beverages (+0.3 percent from +0.1 percent).
 
Core consumer prices rose 2.1 percent year-on-year in December, compared to a 2.2 percent gain in November.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices were flat, after a 1 percent gain in a month earlier. Prices went up at a faster pace for: restaurants & hotels ( +0.2 percent from +0.1 percent). Prices steady for :  furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance ( +0.1 percent). Prices rose at a slower pace for : food & non-alcoholic beverages & tobacco ( +0.6 percent from +1.0 percent) and health (+0.2 percent  from +0.3 percent). Prices were flat for housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels (from +0.5 percent) and education (from +0.1 percent). In contrast prices fell for miscellaneous goods and services ( -0.2  percent from +0.5 percent) and transport (-1.4 percent  from +4.5 percent).
 
 
 
 




Wednesday January 18 2017
Malaysia Inflation Rate Steady at 1.8% in December
Statistics of Malaysia l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Consumer prices in Malaysia rose 1.8 percent year-on-year in December of 2016, the same as in November but slightly below markets expectations of a 1.9 percent rise. The inflation rate remained at the highest level since May, mainly due to rising prices of food and non alcoholic beverages while inflation for housing & utilities were steady and cost of transport fell less than in a month earlier. Core consumer prices rose 2.1 percent year-on-year in December, compared to a 2.2 percent gain in November. On a monthly basis, consumer prices were flat, after a 1.0 percent rise in a month earlier.

Year-on-year, upward prices pressure came from: food & non-alcoholic beverages (+3.7 percent from +3.8 percent in November), alcoholic beverages & tobacco (+0.1 percent from +1.9 percent); housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels (2.1 percent from +2.1 percent); furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance (+1.4 percent from +1.4 percent), health (+2.4 percent from +2.5 percent), recreation services & culture (+3.3 percent from +3.2 percent), education (+1.7 percent from +1.9 percent), restaurants & hotels (+1.9 percent from +1.9 percent) and miscellaneous goods & services (+1.8 percent from +1.8 percent). In contrast, downward prices pressure came from: clothing and footwear (-0.5 percent from -0.5 percent), transport (-0.6 percent from -1.5 percent) and communication (-2.6 percent from -2.7 percent).
 
Among food & non-alcoholic beverages, customers had to pay more for all categories: food (+3.8 percent from +4.0 percent); food at home (+4.1 percent from +4.2 percent); rice, bread & other cereals (+0.7 percent from +0.9 percent); meat (+3.0 percent from +6.0 percent); fish & seafood (+5.6 percent from +4.5 percent); milk & eggs (+0.1 percent from +1.1 percent), oils & fats (+36.9 percent from +36.6 percent), fruits (+2.7 percent from +2.7 percent); vegetables (+4.8 percent from +3.6 percent); sugar, jam, honey, chocolate & confectionary (+2.0 percent from +1.9 percent); food products (+5.4 percent from +5.8 percent), food away from home (+3.5 percent from +3.4 percent) and coffee, tea, cocoa & non-alcoholic beverages (+0.3 percent from +0.1 percent).
 
Core consumer prices rose 2.1 percent year-on-year in December, compared to a 2.2 percent gain in November. 
 
On a monthly basis, consumer prices unchanged, after a 1 percent gain in a month earlier. Prices went up for: food & non-alcoholic beverages & tobacco ( +0.6 percent from +1.0 percent); furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance ( +0.1 percent from +0.1 percent), health (+0.2 percent  from +0.3 percent), transport (-1.4 percent  from +4.5 percent), education (0 percent from +0.1 percent), restaurants & hotels ( +0.2 percent from +0.1 percent) and miscellaneous goods and services ( -0.2  percent from +0.5 percent). Prices were flat for housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels (from +0.5 percent).
 
 
 
 




Tuesday January 17 2017
Irish Trade Surplus Falls From Record High As Imports Jump
CSO | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

Irish seasonally adjusted trade surplus decreased by 20 percent to €4,045 million in November 2016 from a downwardly revised record high of €5,040 million in the previous month, as imports jumped by 18 percent while exports fell by 1 percent, preliminary figures showed.

Seasonally adjusted goods imports increased by €938 million, or 18 percent, to €6,153 million from the previous month; while exports decreased by €57 million, or 1 percent, to €10,197 million, preliminary figures showed.

Year-on-year, the non-seasonally adjusted value of exports increased by €783 million, or 8 percent, to €10,961 million, due to higher sales of medical and pharmaceutical products (+28 percent), electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances (+152 percent) and food and live animals (+6 percent). 

The EU accounted for €5,471 million, or 50 percent, of total goods exports, of which €1,592 million went to the UK and €1,272 million to Belgium. Exports to the EU increased by 2 percent year-on-year, while non-EU exports increased by 14 percent over the same period. The USA was the main non-EU destination accounting for €2,893 million, or 26 percent, of total exports. 

Meanwhile, imports rose by €305 million, or 5 percent, to €6,501 million compared with November 2015, mainly due to higher purchases of medical and pharmaceutical products (+82 percent) and petroleum (+41 percent). By contrast, imports of road vehicles dropped 15 percent.

The EU accounted for €3,580 million, or 55 percent, of the value of goods imports, with €1,404 million, or 22 percent, of total imports coming from the UK. Imports from the EU decreased by 6 percent year-on-year, while non-EU imports increased by 23 percent over the same period. The USA with €1,336 million, or 21 percent, and China with €441 million, or 7 percent, were the main non-EU sources of imports.

In the first eleven months of the year, the trade surplus increased to €44.0 billion from €40.0 billion in the same period of 2015, as exports advanced 5 percent to €107.9 billion while imports rose 1 percent to €63.9 billion.




Tuesday January 17 2017
Italy Trade Surplus Widens In November
Istat | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

The trade surplus in Italy increased 6.2 percent year-on-year to EUR 4.2 billion in November of 2016, above market expectations of a EUR 3.84 billion surplus. Exports jumped 5.7 percent, following a 2.2 percent drop in October and imports increased at a slightly slower 5.6 percent, recovering from a 1.6 percent fall in October.

Exports reached EUR 37.1 billion in November, boosted by sales of vehicles, excluding motor vehicles (+18.4 percent), motor vehicles (+13.7 percent) and chemicals and chemical products (+13.4 percent). Among main export partners, increases were recorded in shipments to the United States (+15.3 percent), Japan (+14.1 percent) and China (+12.8 percent) and within the European Union, Czech Republic (+12.7 percent), Romania (+9.1 percent) and Germany (+7 percent).

Imports increased to EUR 32.9 billion on higher purchases of motor vehicles (+27.8 percent), means of transport, except motor vehicles (+12.3 percent) and machinery and equipment (+11.6 percent). Imports from the EU countries increased 8.1 percent and those to non-EU countries rose 1.6 percent. 

Considering the first eleven months of 2016, the trade surplus increased by EUR 9.6 billion to EUR 45.8 billion, as exports edged up 0.7 percent and imports fell 2 percent. 




Tuesday January 17 2017
UK Inflation Rate Highest Since 2014
ONS | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

Consumer prices in the United Kingdom rose 1.6 percent year-on-year in December of 2016, higher than 1.2 percent in November and above market expectations of 1.4 percent. It is the highest inflation rate since July of 2014, boosted by rising cost of transport and housing and utilities amid a weaker pound.

Main upward pressure came from prices of transport (3.7 percent compared to 2.5 percent in November), housing and utilities (0.4 percent from 0.2 percent), recreation and culture (0.9 percent from 0.7 percent) and restaurants and hotels (2.8 percent from 2.6 percent). Prices of food and non-alocoholic beverages fell 1.1 percent, the least since August of 2014. 

On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.5 percent, following a 0.2 percent gain in November and beating expectations of a 0.3 percent increase. It is the highest monthly inflation since February of 2014, boosted by transport prices (+2.9 percent), namely air fares (+49 percent). Food cost increased 0.8 percent and fuel prices fell less (-0.4 percent). 

The core index which excludes prices of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco advanced 1.6 percent on the year, above 1.4 percent in November and expectations of 1.4 percent. It is the highest reading since August of 2014.





Monday January 16 2017
Russian Trade Surplus Widens Unexpectedly In November
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

Russian trade surplus increased by 2.2 percent to $9.14 billion in November 2016 from $8.94 billion in the same month a year earlier, well above market expectations of a $7.6 billion surplus. Exports rose 4.9 percent, the first increase since July 2014; and imports went up 6.4 percent, the fourth consecutive month of growth.

Exports increased by 4.9 percent to an eleven-month high of $26.65 billion from $25.40 billion in November 2015. It was the first annual rise since July 2014, as exports to non-CIS countries advanced 6.4 percent (from -6.7 percent in October) while those to CIS countries fell 3 percent (from -12.3 percent). Imports went up 6.4 percent to $17.51 billion from $16.46 billion a year earlier, marking the fourth consecutive month of gains. Imports from non-CIS countries climbed 6.1 percent (from +8.7 percent in October) and those from CIS countries advanced by 9.3 percent (from +4.5 percent).

The trade surplus with non-CIS countries rose 7 percent to $7.26 billion from $6.79 billion a year ago while with CIS countries it fell 13.1 percent to $1.87 billion from $2.16 billion.

Considering the first eleven months of the year, the trade surplus shrank 42.7 percent to $78.59 billion from $137.21 billion in the same period of 2015, as exports fell 19.8 percent to $250.70 billion and imports declined at a much slower 1.9 percent to $172.11 billion.




Monday January 16 2017
Eurozone Trade Surplus Widens Ahead Of Expectations
Eurostat | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

The Eurozone trade surplus rose to €25.9 billion in November 2016 from €22.9 billion in the same month of the previous year, above market consensus of €22 billion. Exports increased 6 percent while imports went up at a slower 5 percent.

Exports of goods to the rest of the world advanced 6 percent to €184.2 billion from €173.8 billion a year earlier; while imports increased at a slower 5 percent to €158.3 billion compared to €150.9 billion in November 2015.

In January to November 2016, the trade surplus rose to €248.2 billion, compared with €214.3 billion in the same period a year earlier, as exports were nearly unchanged at €1,869 billion and imports dropped 2 percent to €1,620.8 billion.

The European Union recorded a €6.9 billion surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world, compared with a €5.7 billion surplus in November 2015. Exports went up 5 percent to €156.8 billion from €148.7 billion a year earlier; and imports rose also 5 percent to €149.9 billion compared to €143 billion.

In January to November 2016, the European Union recorded a surplus of €20.2 billion, compared with €39.3 billion in the same period a year ago. Exports of goods dropped 3 percent to €1,581.2 billion from €1,633.1 billion in the same period a year earlier, led by a fall in sales of energy (-16 percent), raw materials (-2 percent), machinery and vehicles (-2 percent), other manufactured goods (-2 percent) and chemicals (-1 percent) while exports of food and drinks rose (+3 percent). Imports shrank 2 percent to €1,561 billion from €1,593.8 billion, as purchases declined the most for energy (-23 percent) and raw materials (-6 percent). Among trading partners, the biggest decreases in shipments were reported for South Korea (-9 percent) and Switzerland (-6 percent); while the decline in imports mainly reflected the strong fall in purchases from Norway (-17 percent) and Russia (-16 percent). 




Monday January 16 2017
Italian Inflation Rate Confirmed At Highest Since May 2014
Istat | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

Italy's consumer prices rose by 0.5 percent year-on-year in December 2016 after increasing by 0.1 percent in November, matching the preliminary estimate. It was the highest inflation rate since May 2014, mainly boosted by rising prices for food and transport.

Compared with December 2015, the biggest upward pressure came from food and non-alcoholic beverages (+0.8 percent from a flat reading in November); transport (+2.2 percent from +0.7 percent); restaurants and hotels (+0.7 percent, the same as in November); miscellaneous goods and services (+0.9 percent from +0.7 percent); health (+0.4 percent, the same as in November); and recreation and culture (+0.5 percent from +0.2 percent). By contrast, housing prices continued to fall (-1.8 percent from -1.9 percent in November).

Annual core inflation rate, which excludes energy and unprocessed food, rose to 0.6 percent from 0.4 percent the previous month. Excluding only energy, the inflation went up to 0.7 percent from 0.4 percent in November.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.4 percent, following a 0.1 percent drop in November, mainly due to the increase
of prices of services related to transport (+1.9 percent), non-regulated energy products (+1.1 percent), unprocessed food (+1 percent) and services related to recreation, including repair and personal care (+0.5 percent).

In the full year 2016, the average CPI fell 0.1 percent, the first annual drop since 1959, following a 0.1 percent gain in 2015.

The harmonized index rose by 0.5 percent on the year and by 0.4 from the previous month. Still, the index fell 0.1 percent in 2016.




Monday January 16 2017
Turkish Jobless Rate Up to Over 6-Year High of 11.8%
Statistics of Turkey l Chusnul Ch Manan| chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

The unemployment rate in Turkey increased to 11.8 percent in October of 2016 from 10.50 percent a year earlier. It was the highest jobless rate since March 2010 as non-farm unemployment also rose to 13.7 percent (1.3 percentage point increase) and the jobless rate among those aged 15 to 24 went up by 1.4 percentage point to 19.9 percent.

The number of unemployed persons went up by 500 thousand to 3.647 thousand and employment increased by 411 thousand to 27267 thousand. The non-agricultural sector increased 579 thousand jobs while the farm sector lost 168 thousand: employment decreased in agriculture (by 0.9 percentage point) and in industry (by 0.6 percentage point) while rose in services (by 1.6 percentage point), and construction unchanged.

According to the distribution of employment by sector; 20.5 percent was employed in agriculture, 19.5 percent was in industry, 7.6 percent was in construction and 53.6percent was in services.

In addition, the number of people in the labour force rose by 911 thousand to 30914 thousand and those detached from the labour force decreased by 55 thousand to 28.076 thousand (employed). The participation rate rose 0.8 percentage points from a year earlier to 52.4 percent.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment went up by 117 thousand persons and reached 3 million 611 thousand while employment decreased by 23 thousand and reached 27 million 312 thousand persons in October compared with the previous month




Monday January 16 2017
India WPI Rises at Faster Pace in December
Office of the Economic Adviser | Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

Indian wholesale prices rose 3.39 percent year-on-year in December of 2016, following a 3.15 percent gain in November while markets expected a 3.50 percent rise. It was the ninth straight month of increase, mainly due to rising cost of manufactured products and petrol while prices of food fell for the first time since August 2015.

In December, food prices fell 0.70 percent from a year earlier, following a 1.54 percent  rise in the preceding month. Among food prices, onion recorded the largest drop (-37.20 percent), followed by vegetables (-33.11 percent). In contrast, prices went up for: potatoes (+26.42 percent), pulses (+18.12 percent), wheat (+12.82 percent), cereals (+7.49 percent), rice (+4.38 percent), milk (+4.11 percent); egg, meat & fish (+2.73 percent) and  fruits (+0.04 percent).

Cost of manufactured products increased by 3.67 percent, compared to a 3.20 percent rise in the previous month.

Petrol prices went up 8.52 percent year-on-year, following a 5.54 percent gain in November. Cost of diesel also increased by 20.25 percent,  compared to a 19.36 percent rise in a month earlier.

On a monthly basis, wholesale prices declined by 0.2 percent, compared to a 0.1 percent increase in November.




Monday January 16 2017
Indonesia Trade Balance Swings to Surplus in December
Statistics Indonesia l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

Indonesia posted a trade surplus of 0.99 USD billion in December of 2016, compared to a 0.16 USD billion deficit a year earlier. Figure came above market estimates of a 0.84 USD billion surplus, as exports rose much more than imports.

Year-on-year, exports jumped 15.57 percent to 13.77 USD billion, following a 21.34 percent in the prior month and beating market consensus of a 13.27 percent rise.  It was the third straight month of increase, as sales of non-oil and gas products went up 18.11 percent to 12.54 USD billion while those of oil and gas dropped by 5.22 percent to 1.10 USD billion.  

Imports went up 5.82 percent to 12.78 USD billion, following a 9.88 percent growth in a month earlier while markets expected a 3.5 percent growth. It was also the third consecutive month of growth, as purchases of non-oil and gas rose 7.91 percent to 11.09 USD billion while those of oil and gas fell 6.15 percent to 1.69 USD billion. 

Compared to the previous month, outbound shipments rose 1.99 percent, as oil exports increased by 11.66 percent, followed by sales of non-oil and gas products (+1.13 percent). By categories, outbound shipments rose for: mineral fuels (+9.06 percent), rubber and rubber goods (+14.81 percent), apparel not knitted (+22.03 percent); ore, cruct and gray metal (+29.19 percent) and iron & steel (+44.82 percent). In contrast, sales decreased for: machinery/electrical equipment (-10.44 percent); jewelry, gems (-32.0 percent), vehicles & parts (-17.26 percent), machinery/aircraft mechanics (-8.30 percent) and goods from iron & steel (-28.52 percent). Sales went up to most of the country's trading partners: the ASEAN countries (+4.24 percent), the EU countries (+6.94 percent), China (+2.82 percent), the US (+8.88 percent), South Korea (+26.06 percent) and Taiwan (+5.72 percent). In contrast, exports fell to Japan (-3.98 percent), India (-13.58 percent) and Australia (-32.66 percent).

Compared to the prior month, inbound shipments increased by 0.88 perent. While purchases of non-oil and gas rose 1.35 percent, those of oil and gas declined by 2.13 percent. Imports went up the most for consumption goods (+27.25 percent to 1.31 USD billion, followed by capital goods (+7.49 percent to 2.23 USD billion). In contrast, purchases of raw material declined by 3.38 percent to 9.25 USD billion.

Considering full year of 2016, exports fell 3.95 percent from a year earlier to 144.43 USD billion while imports declined by 4.94 percent to 135.65 USD billion. That brought a trade surplus of 8.78 USD billion during the period, larger than a 7.67 USD billion surplus recorded in 2015.




Friday January 13 2017
Nigeria Inflation Rate Highest Since October 2005
National Bureau of Statistics | Deborah Neves | deborah.neves@tradingeconomics.com

Nigeria's consumer prices increased by 18.55 percent year-on-year in December 2016, following a 18.48 percent rise in the previous month. The inflation rate accelerated for the 11th straight month to the highest since October 2005, as prices continued to rise for housing, electricity and food.

Compared to December 2015, cost of food increased by 17.4 percent from a 17.2 percent rise in November (mainly due to bread and cereals; oil and fats and fish and meat) while prices of imported food increased slightly less (+21.1 percent from +22.2 percent). Additional upward pressure came from: housing and utilities (+27.2 percent from +27.2 percent in November); clothing and footwear (+17.8 percent from +18.2 percent); furnishings and household equipment (+13.6 percent from +13.5 percent) and transport (+17.3 percent from +17.7 percent).

Annual core inflation rate advanced to 16.77 percent from 14.54 percent in the previous month.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 1.08 percent compared with a 0.8 percent rise in the previous month, as cost went up for: food (+1.3 percent); imported food (+1 percent); housing and utilities (+0.5 percent); and clothing and footwear (+1 percent).




Friday January 13 2017
US Consumer Sentiment Falls Slightly In January
University of Michigan | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the United States edged down to 98.1 in January of 2017 from a 13-year high of 98.2 in the previous month and lower than market forecasts of 98.5. Future expectations declined and inflationary pressures jumped.

The gauge of future expectations fell to 88.9 from 89.5 in December while the barometer for current economic conditions rose to 112.5 from 111.9, reaching the highest since 2004.

Americans expect the inflation rate to be 2.6 percent next year, compared with 2.2 percent in December and 2.5 percent over the next 5 years, higher than 2.3 percent the previous month.