Friday December 02 2016
Canada Unemployment Rate Falls to 6.8%
Statistics Canada | Joana Taborda |

The jobless rate in Canada declined to 6.8 percent in November of 2016 from 7 percent in the previous three months, beating market expectations of 7 percent. It is the lowest unemployment rate in five months as the economy added 10.7 thousand jobs and fewer people looked for work.

Part-time jobs rose by 19.4 thousand while full-time decreased by 8.7 thousand. More people were employed in the finance, insurance, real estate and leasing industry, in information, culture and recreation, in the "other services" industry and in agriculture. On the other hand, declines were observed in construction, in manufacturing, as well as in transportation and warehousing.

There were fewer self-employed workers in November, while the number of employees was little changed in both the public and private sectors.

In November, employment increased for men in the 25 to 54 age group and for men 55 and older, while it declined for women 55 and older. There was little change among the other demographic groups.

Provincially, employment rose in Nova Scotia while it fell in Alberta.

Friday December 02 2016
US Jobless Rate At 9-Year Low Of 4.6%
BLS | Yekaterina Guchshina |

US unemployment rate fell to 4.6 percent in November 2016 from 4.9 percent in the previous month and well below market expectations of 4.9 percent. It was the lowest jobless rate since August 2007, as the number of unemployed persons declined by 387 thousand to 7.4 million while the labor force participation rate decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 62.7 percent.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult men declined to 4.3 percent in November. The rates for adult women (4.2 percent), teenagers (15.2 percent), Whites (4.2 percent), Blacks (8.1 percent), Asians (3.0 percent), and Hispanics (5.7 percent) showed little or no change over the month. 

The number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs edged down by 194,000 to 3.6 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.9 million and accounted for 24.8 percent of the unemployed. Over the past 12 months, the number of long-term unemployed was down by 198,000. 

The civilian labor force participation rate, at 62.7 percent, changed little in November, and the employment-population ratio held at 59.7 percent. These measures have shown little movement in recent months.

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers), at 5.7 million, changed little in November but was down by 416,000 over the year. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. 

In November, 1.9 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, up by 215,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally attached, there were 591,000 discouraged workers in November, little different from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.3 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in November had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.

Friday December 02 2016
US Economy Adds More Jobs Than Expected
BLS | Joana Taborda |

Total nonfarm payroll employment in the United States increased by 178,000 in November of 2016, more than a downwardly revised 142,000 in October and above market expectations of 175,000. Employment gains occurred in professional and business services and in health care.

Employment in professional and business services rose by 63,000 in November and has risen by 571,000 over the year. Over the month, accounting and bookkeeping services added 18,000 jobs. Employment continued to trend up in administrative and support services (+36,000), computer systems design and related services (+5,000), and management and technical consulting services (+4,000).

Health care employment rose by 28,000 in November. Within the industry, employment growth occurred in ambulatory health care services (+22,000). Over the past 12 months, health care has added 407,000 jobs.

Employment in construction continued on its recent upward trend in November (+19,000), with a gain in residential specialty trade contractors (+15,000). Over the past 3 months,construction has added 59,000 jobs, largely in residential construction.

Employment in other major industries, including mining, manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, leisure and hospitality, and government, changed little over the month.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.4 hours in November. In manufacturing, the workweek declined by 0.2 hour to 40.6 hours, while overtime was unchanged at 3.3 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.6 hours. 

In November, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 3 cents to $25.89, following an 11-cent increase in October. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.5 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees edged up by 2 cents to $21.73 in November.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised up from +191,000 to +208,000, and the change for October was revised down from +161,000 to +142,000. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 2,000 less than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 176,000 per month.

Friday December 02 2016
Switzerland GDP Stalls in Q3
Seco l Rida Husna |

Switzerland's economy showed no growth on the quarter from July to September, following a 0.6 percent expansion in the previous three months and missing market consensus of a 0.3 percent growth. While domestic demand and investment grew, government expenditure shrank and the net trade balance contributed negatively as imports rose and exports declined.

In the third quarter, household consumption rose 0.1 percent, after remaining unchanged in the previous quarter. In contrast, government expenditure shrank 0.1 percent, swinging from a 1.7 percent expansion in the preceding three months.

Investment in equipment increased by  0.5 percent, compared to a 0.9 percent decline in the June quarter, driven primarily by research and development as well as machinery. Investment in construction also expanded 0.5 percent, after falling 0.2 percent previously.

Exports of goods (excluding non-monetary gold and valuables) decreased by 0.2 percent, the same pace as in the preceding quarter. Sales fell for precision instrumens, watches and jewellery. In contrast, positive contributions came from chemicals and pharmaceuticals. Imports of goods (excluding non-monetary gold and valuables) rose 0.2 percent, slowing from a 0.5 percent increase in the June quarter.

Year-on-year, the economy expanded 1.3 percent, slowing from a 2.0 percent growth in the June quarter and below consensus of a 1.8 percent growth. 

Friday December 02 2016
Brazil Trade Surplus Widens 297% YoY
Joana Taborda |

The trade surplus in Brazil rose to USD 4.76 billion in November of 2016, much higher than a USD 1.2 billion surplus a year earlier. It is the wider surplus for a November month on record and better than market expectations of a USD 3 billion. Exports recorded the biggest gain in six years while imports continued to contract. The country has been reporting trade surpluses since March last year, as a weaker real weighed down on imports but failed to boost exports.

Exports rose 17.5 percent year-on-year to USD 16.22 billion, the first anual rise in three months and the biggest gain since November of 2011. A weaker real has failed to boost sales due to lower international prices for the country's main export commodities, including soybeans, iron, oil, sugar and coffee. Yet, shipments remain around 38 percent lower than a record high reached in August of 2011. Commodities account for nearly 50 percent of total sales.
Imports slumped 9.1 percent year-on-year to USD 11.46 billion. Purchases have been falling systematically since 2014 due to a slump in the real and lower internal demand amid a severe recession. Imports fell in all months since March 2014 except in August this year (+0.4 percent year-on-year) and in September of 2014 (+9 percent year-on-year), remaining around 50 percent lower than a record high reached in October of 2013.

Considering the first eleven months of the year, exports declined 3.3 percent over a year earlier to USD 169.3 billion. Sales declined mainly for coffee (-15.9 percent); oil (-14.3 percent); soybean meal (-11.7 percent); corn (-11.1 percent); iron (-10.4 percent) and copper (-8.4 percent) but increased for platforms for oil extraction (222.7 percent); passenger cars (38.2 percent); refined sugar (22.7 percent) and airplanes (14.7 percent). Imports fell at a faster 22 percent to USD 126 billion, due to declines in purchases of fuels and lubricants (-44.9 percent); capital goods (-22 percent), consumption goods (-21.8 percent) and intermediate goods (-17.2 percent). As a result, the trade surplus increased to USD 43282 billion compared to a USD 13445 billion surplus a year earlier. 

Thursday December 01 2016
US Factories Grew For Third Straight Month
Anna |

The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.2 in November 2016 from 51.9 in October, above market expectations of 52.2. It was the highest reading in five months as new orders, production and inventories of raw materials came in stronger than in the previous month while employment growth slowed down.

The New Orders Index registered 53 percent, an increase of 0.9 percentage point from the October reading of 52.1 percent. The Production Index registered 56 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than the October reading of 54.6 percent. The Employment Index registered 52.3 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point from the October reading of 52.9 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 49 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the October reading of 47.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 54.5 percent in November, the same reading as in October, indicating higher raw materials prices for the ninth consecutive month. Comments from the panel cite increasing demand, some tightness in the labor market and plans to reduce inventory by the end of the year.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 11 are reporting growth in November in the following order: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Primary Metals. The six industries reporting contraction in November — listed in order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Wood Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; and Furniture & Related Products.

Thursday December 01 2016
US Markit Manufacturing PMI Revised UP
Markit | Joana Taborda |

The Final US Markit Manufacturing PMI increased to 54.1 in November of 2016 from 53.4 in October and above flash estimates of 53.9. It is the strongest reading since October last year as output rose the most in 20 months, payrolls increased and cost inflation slowed.

A sharp and accelerated rise in new business volumes was reported by manufacturing companies during November. This was mainly driven by domestic sales, as new orders from abroad increased only marginally since the previous month, with survey respondents citing competitive pressures and the strong dollar. Anecdotal evidence suggested that improving U.S. economic conditions and greater confidence among clients had led to rising levels of new work.
Mirroring the trend for new business, latest survey data highlighted the steepest rise in production volumes since early-2015. Increased manufacturing output has now been recorded for six months in a row, and the latest expansion was faster than the post-crisis trend. Alongside stronger sales, higher production also reflected efforts to boost inventories. Stocks of finished goods have risen in each of the past two months, in contrast to the declines seen through the third quarter of 2016.
Improving demand conditions resulted in a sustained accumulation of unfinished work across the manufacturing sector in November. Backlogs have now risen for six months running, which is the longest continuous period since late-2015.
Renewed pressures on operating capacity resulted in a moderate increase in payroll numbers. Some firms linked greater staff recruitment to more confidence regarding the business outlook. This also contributed to further increases in input buying and pre-production inventories at manufacturing companies in November.
Despite rising purchasing activity, supplier lead times were broadly unchanged in November. Moreover, input cost pressures remained moderate, and the rate of inflation eased from October’s two-year peak. Factory gate charges also increased at a slower pace in November, reflecting weaker cost pressures and intense competition for new work.

Thursday December 01 2016
US Jobless Claims at 5-Month High
DOL | Joana Taborda |

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased by 17 thousand to 268 thousand in the week ended November 26th from the previous week's level of 251 thousand. It is the highest figure since the last week of June and above market expectations of 253 thousand. However, it is the 91st consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970.

The 4-week moving average which smooths out week-to-week volatility was 251,500, an increase of 500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 251,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.5 percent for the week ending November 19, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate.

Continuing claims during the week ending November 19 were at 2,081,000, an increase of 38,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 2,043,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,037,500, an increase of 12,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 2,024,750.

Thursday December 01 2016
Italy Unemployment Rate Falls to 11.6%
Istat | Joana Taborda |

The jobless rate in Italy decreased to 11.6 percent in October of 2016 from 11.7 percent in the previous month, matching market expectations. However, the economy shed 30 thousand jobs and 82 thousand more people left the labour force.

There were 2.989 million unemployed people, 37 thousand less than in the previous month. Employment fell by 30 thousand to 22.75 million and those detached from the labour force increased by 82 thousand to 13.64 million. As a result, the employment rate declined by 0.1 percentage point to 57.2 percent and the inactivity rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 35.1 percent.
Unemployment was steady at 11 percent for men but fell by 0.3 percentage points to 12.4 percent for women as more women were detached from the labour force. The inactivity rate for women went up by 0.3 percentage points to 45 percent while for men it increased by a smaller 0.1 percentage point to 25.2 percent.
Among youth, unemployment declined by 0.4 percentage points to 36.4 percent.

Thursday December 01 2016
Euro Area Unemployment Rate Falls to 7-Year Low
Eurostat | Joana Taborda |

The unemployment rate in the Eurozone declined to 9.8 percent in October of 2016 from a downwardly revised 9.9 percent in September. It is the lowest jobless rate since July of 2009 and below market expectations of 10 percent. Unemployment has been falling since a record high of 12.1 percent in April of 2013 but remains above a record low of 7.2 percent in March of 2008.

Considering the European Union, the jobless rate fell to 8.3 percent in October from 8.4 percent in September, reaching the lowest since February of 2009.
20.448 million people were unemployed in the EU28, of whom 15.908 million in the Euro Area. Compared with September, the number of persons unemployed decreased by 190 000 in the EU28 and by 178 000 in the Euro Area.
Among Member States, the lowest unemployment rates were recorded in the Czech Republic (3.8 percent) and Germany (4.1 percent) and the highest in Greece (23.4 percent in August 2016) and Spain (19.2 percent).

Thursday December 01 2016
Italy GDP Growth Confirmed at 0.3% QoQ in Q3
Istat l Rida Husna |

Italy's gross domestic product expanded 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September, compared to an upwardly revised 0.1 percent growth in the June quarter and in line with preliminary estimates. Positive contributions from domestic demand offset a decline in net exports.

In the third quarter, domestic demand contributed 0.3 percentage points to growth (from +0.1 percentage points in the preceding quarter). Private consumption, investment and inventory accumulation each contributed 0.1 percentage points to quarterly growth. Government spending gave no contribution to growth. Net exports contributed negatively to growth (-0.1 percentage points from +0.3 percentage points).

Compared to the same quarter a year earlier, the GDP advanced 1.0 percent, slightly faster than earlier projections of a 0.9 percent growth.

For 2016, the economy is predicted to grow by 0.8 percent, lower than previous estimates of 1.2 percent expansion made in September.

Thursday December 01 2016
South Korea Trade Surplus Narrows in November
Joana Ferreira |

South Korea's trade surplus fell to USD 7.99 billion in November 2016 from USD 10.24 billion the same month a year earlier, preliminary data showed. Exports increased by 2.7 percent, as shipments to China grew for the first time in 17 months, while imports advanced at a faster 10.1 percent.

Year-on-year, exports increased by 2.7 percent to USD 45.48 billion from USD 44.29 billion, following a revised 3.5 percent fall in October while markets expected a 1.2 percent gain. Sales rose the most for: machinery (+19.3 percent), followed by semiconductors (+11.6 percent, largely due to growing demand for mobile chips) and steel products (+10.8 percent). Outbound shipments of automobile also went up 1.5 percent, marking the first growth in 17 months and following partial strikes at major carmakers, including industry leader Hyundai Motor). In contrast, outbound shipments fell for shipbuilding (-36.8 percent) and wireless device, including mobile phones (-17.9 percent in the aftermath of the output halt of Samsung Electronics Galaxy Note 7).

Shipments to China, the largest market for South Korean products, grew for the first time in 17 months. Exports to the U.S., the country's second-largest trade partner,  gained 3.9 percent and marking the first gain in six months.

Imports advanced at a faster 10.1 percent to USD 37.49 billion from USD 34.05 billion, after dropping by a revised 4.8 percent the preceding month and higher than market consensus of 2.9 percent rise.

In October 2016, the trade surplus was downwardly revised to USD 6.97 billion.

The trade balance has been in consistent surpluses since February 2012.

Wednesday November 30 2016
South Korea Inflation Rate Steady At Highest Since February
Statistics Korea l Joana Ferreira |

South Korea's consumer prices increased by 1.3 percent year-on-year in November 2016, the same as in October but below market expectations of a 1.5 percent growth. The inflation rate remained the highest since February this year, as cost of housing and utilities rebounded and prices of health advanced further, while cost of food, and restaurants and hotels rose at a slower pace.

Year-on-year, prices of housing and utilities edged up 0.1 percent, recovering from a 0.4 percent fall in October; and cost of health advanced further by 1.1 percent, compared to a 0.9 percent growth the previous month. Meanwhile, prices rose at a slower pace for: Food and non-alcoholic beverages (+4.5 percent from +5 percent in October) and restaurants and hotels (+2.1 percent from +2.2 percent). By contrast, transport prices continued to fall (-0.2 percent from -1.4 percent in October).

Annual core inflation rate decreased to 1.4 percent from 1.5 percent the previous month.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.1 percent, following a 0.1 percent gain in October and in line with market expectations. Prices of housing and utilities rose 0.6 percent while cost of food decreased 1.6 percent.

Wednesday November 30 2016
Brazil Cuts Key Interest Rate to 13.75%
Joana Ferreira |

The Central Bank of Brazil lowered its benchmark Selic rate to 13.75 percent on November 30th, its lowest in over a year. The decision was widely expected by markets, as policymakers aim to bring inflation back to target amid a deep economic recession and a new political scandal.

The central bank began easing monetary policy during its October meeting, as it lowered its interest rate for the first time in four years. Although inflation rate slowed recently to a 20-month low of 7.87 percent in October, it remained well above the central bank's mid-point target of 4.5 percent. Furthermore, Brazil's economy shrank for the seventh consecutive quarter in the three months to September 2016, as investments dropped sharply and household consumption continued to fall.

Meanwhile, a scandal within President Michel Temer's cabinet raised fears he could lose support in Congress to push ahead austerity reforms; and added pressure on the real, which has dropped by more than 6 percent against the dollar this month. 

Inflation expectations fell to 6.72 percent for 2016 and 4.93 percent for 2017, according to the latest FOCUS Market Readout released by the central bank on November 25th. Meanwhile, the economy is expected to contract by 3.49 percent in 2016 and to grow by 0.98% next year.

Wednesday November 30 2016
Kenya Inflation Rate at 9- Month High of 6.68%
Kenya National Bureau of Statistics | Luisa Carvalho |

Consumer prices in Kenya increased 6.68 percent year-on-year in November of 2016, following a 6.5 percent rise in the previous month and above market expectations of a 6.48 percent gain. It was the highest inflation rate since February, boosted by food cost.

Compared to November 2015, main upward pressure came from food and non-alcoholic drinks (+11.13 percent compared to +11.03 percent in October), namely fruits and vegetables; alcoholic drinks, tobacco and narcotics (+13.96 percent from +14.13 percent), followed by restaurants and hotels (+5.77 percent from +5.60 percent), clothing and footwear (+4.65 percent from +4.17 percent), recreation and culture (+4.47 percent from +4.34 percent) and education (+4.02 percent from +4.07 percent).

Month-on-month, consumer prices increased 0.71 percent following a 0.62 percent gain in October. Cost went up the most for food and non-alcoholic beverages (+1.17 percent from +0.96 percent in October) and alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics (+0.11 percent from +0.01 percent), followed by housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (+0.11 percent from +0.16 percent); clothing and footwear (+0.70 percent from +0.55 percent) and transports (+0.55 percent from +0.37 percent).

Wednesday November 30 2016
US Personal Spending Rises Less Than Expected in October
BEA | Joana Ferreira |

Personal consumption expenditures in the United States increased by 0.3 percent month-over-month in October 2016, easing from an upwardly revised 0.7 percent growth in September and below market expectations of 0.5 percent gain. Consumption of goods rose by 1.3 percent while spending on services fell by 0.2 percent.

Spending rose at a faster pace for goods (+1.3 percent from +1.2 percent in September), boosted by nondurable goods (+1.4 percent from +0.7 percent) while consumption of durable goods slowed (+1 percent from +2.1 percent). Spending on services fell by 0.2 percent, after growing by 0.5 percent the previous month. 

Personal income went up 0.6 percent, compared to a 0.4 percent gain in September and market expectations of a 0.4 percent increase. It primarily reflected increases in compensation of employees (+0.5 percent from +0.4 percent in September) and personal interest income (+1.8 percent from +0.2 percent). Real DPI increased by 0.4 percent, following a 0.2 percent rise in the previous month.

The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent from September, the same as in the previous month. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index edged up 0.1 percent, the same as in September.

Wednesday November 30 2016
Canada GDP Growth At 2-Year High of 0.9% in Q3
Statistics Canada | Joana Taborda |

The Canadian economy expanded 0.9 percent on quarter in the three months to September of 2016, following a downwardly revised 0.3 percent contraction in the previous period. It is the highest growth rate since the second quarter of 2014, boosted by exports of energy while domestic demand slowed. Expressed at an annualized rate, the economy expanded 3.5 percent, better than market expectations of 3.4 percent.

Exports increased 2.2 percent, following a 3.9 percent drop in the previous period. Growth was driven by a 6.1 percent increase in the energy sector, following a 5.1 percent decline in the second quarter as a result of the Fort McMurray wildfires. Exports of goods grew 2.3 percent, while services advanced 1.4 percent. Imports went up 0.8 percent, following a 0.4 percent rise in the previous period. 

Growth in household final consumption expenditure was 0.6 percent, a similar pace to the previous two quarters. The growth was mainly in services (+0.9 percent). Expenditures on goods increased 0.3 percent despite a 0.6 percent decline in outlays on durables, particularly motor vehicles. Investment in residential structures (-1.4 percent) fell for the first time since the first quarter of 2014.

Government final consumption expenditure declined 0.3 percent following a 1.3 percent increase in the second quarter.

Business investment on machinery and equipment fell 3.2 percent in the third quarter, while intellectual property products declined 4.5 percent on reduced investment in mineral exploration and evaluation (-26.3 percent). Investment in non-residential structures rose 3.7 percent, largely due to the import of a module destined for the Hebron offshore oil project in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Businesses added $4.8 billion to inventories, as manufacturing, wholesale and retail inventory levels all increased. Retail inventories of motor vehicles grew by $3.0 billion in the third quarter.

Wednesday November 30 2016
South Africa Trade Balance Swings to Deficit in October
South African Revenue Service | Joana Ferreira |

South Africa posted a trade deficit of ZAR 4.41 billion in October 2016 from an upwardly revised ZAR 6.95 billion surplus in September, but better than market expectations of a ZAR 10.5 billion gap. Exports fell by 11.1 percent, dragged by lower sales of vegetable products and precious metals and stones; while imports increased by 0.4 percent, as purchases rose mainly for mineral products and machinery and electronics.

Exports declined by ZAR 10.97 billion, or 11.1 percent, to ZAR 88.19 billion from ZAR 99.16 billion in September, dragged by lower sales of vegetable products (-48 percent), precious metals and stones (-25 percent), vehicles and transport equipment (-10 percent), chemical products (-7 percent) and mineral products (-2 percent). South African exports major destinations were China (8.9 percent of total exports), the US (7.4 percent), Germany (7.1 percent), Botswana (5.5 percent) and Japan (5.4 percent).

Imports rose by ZAR 0.39 billion, or 0.4 percent, to ZAR 92.60 billion from ZAR 92.21 billion the previous month, as purchases went up for mineral products (+5 percent), machinery and electronics (+5 percent) and chemical products (+4 percent). Meanwhile imports fell for vegetable products (-26 percent) and vehicles and transport equipment (-5 percent). The main sources of imports to the country were China (21 percent of total imports), Germany (11.6 percent), the US (6 percent), India (4.1 percent) and Japan (3.7 percent).

Considering the first ten months of 2016, the trade deficit shrank to ZAR 14.35 billion compared to ZAR 59.50 billion the same period a year earlier, as exports went up 5.6 percent and imports grew at a much slower 0.3 percent.

Excluding trade with neighboring Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland, the country posted a trade balance deficit of ZAR 13.92 billion in October. 

Wednesday November 30 2016
Brazil GDP Shrinks 2.9% YoY in Q3
IBGE | Joana Taborda |

The Brazilian economy contracted 2.9 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2016, following a downwardly revised 3.6 percent decrease in the previous period and better than market expectations of a 3.2 percent drop. It is the 10th straight quarter of contraction, hurt by internal demand and a slowdown in exports.

On the expenditure side, household spending fell 3.4 percent (-4.8 percent in Q2), government consumption declined 0.8 percent (-0.5 percent in Q2) and gross fixed capital formation shrank 8.4 percent (-8.6 percent in Q2). Exports rose a meager 0.2 percent (4 percent in Q2) and imports declined 6.8 percent (-10.4 percent in Q2).

On the production side, declines were recorded for agriculture (-6 percent compared to -6.1 percent); mining (-1.3 percent compared to -5.1 percent); manufacturing (-3.5 percent compared to -4.7 percent); construction (-4.9 percent compared to -3.2 percent) and services (-2.2 percent compared to -2.7 percent). Only utilities output (+4.3 percent compared to 8.7 percent), real estate activities (+0.1 percent compared to 0.3 percent) and public education and health (0.1 percent compared to 0.5 percent) increased.

On a quarterly basis, the economy shrank 0.8 percent, worse than a 0.4 percent contraction in the previous period. 

Wednesday November 30 2016
Indian Economy Expands 7.3% YoY In Q3
Yekaterina Guchshina |

India's gross domestic product advanced 7.3 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2016, following 7.1 percent expansion in the previous period and missing market expectations of 7.5 percent growth. Private consumption expanded at a faster pace while government spending slowed down and fixed investment dropped further.

Private consumption growth accelerated to 7.6 percent from 6.7 percent in the previous quarter while government spending rose at a slower 15.2 percent (+18.8 percent in Q2). Gross fixed capital formation shrank at a faster 5.6 percent, following a 3.1 percent contraction in the previous period.

Exports increased 0.3 percent, following a 3.2 percent growth in the second quarter; while imports declined 9 percent after falling 5.8 percent in the precedent period.

On the production side, the gross value added for public administration, defence and other services expanded the most (+12.5 percent vs +12.3 percent in Q2), followed by: financial, insurance, real estate and professional services (+8.2 percent vs +9.4 percent); manufacturing (+7.1 percent vs +9.1 percent); trade, hotel, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting (+7.1 percent vs +8.1 percent); electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services (+3.5 percent vs +9.4 percent); agriculture, forestry and fishery (+3.3 percent vs +1.8 percent) and construction (+3.5 percent vs +1.5 percent). By contrast, mining and quarrying contracted 1.5 percent (-0.4 percent in Q2).