Thursday February 23 2017
German GDP Growth Confirmed At 0.4% In Q4
Destatis l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The German economy expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016, compared to a 0.1 percent growth in the September qurter and matching preliminary estimates. Growth was supported by domestic demand and investment while net trade brought a downward effect.

Quarter-on-quarter, private consumption rose 0.3 percent, compared to a 0.2 percent growth in the three months to September. Public consumption advanced by 0.8 percent, up significantly from a 0.2 percent increase in the previous quarter. Overall consumption contributed 0.3 percentage points to growth. Gross fixed capital formation went up 0.8 percent, rebounding from a 0.2 percent contraction in the third quarter. Construction investment increased the most by 1.6 percent (from a 0.3 percent decline in Q3), followed by investment in other products (0.3 percent from 0.6 percent). In contrast, investment in machinery and equipment dropped by 0.1 percent (after a 0.5 percent decline in the third quarter). Exports rose 1.8 percent, compared to a 0.3 percent fall in the September quarter. Imports also went up 3.1 percent, much faster than a 0.4 percent growth in the previous three months. That brought a downward effect to the GDP (-0.4 percentage points). Inventories contributed 0.3 percentage points to growth.

Year-on-year, the GDP advanced 1.2 percent, slower than preliminary estimates of a 1.6 percent growth and a 1.5 percent expansion in the third quarter. It was the weakest expansion since the September quarter 2014. Household final consumption rose 1.5 percent, the same pace as in the previous quarter. Government consumption expanded 3.2 percent, down  from a 3.5 percent expansion in the September quarter. Overall consumption contributed 1.5 percentage points to growth. Gross fixed capital formation grew 0.1 percent (after a 1.4 percent expansion in the preceding quarter). Investment in other products rose the most by 2.5 percent, followed by construction (1.3 percent). In contrast, machinery and equipment investment fell 2.6 percent. Overall investment gave no contribution to growth. Changes in inveentories also showed no contribution to growth. The balance of exports and imports substracted 0.2 percentage points to the year-on-year GDP growth. 

Considering full 2016, the economy advanced 1.9 percent, the strongest in five years.




Tuesday February 14 2017
German Inflation Rate Confirmed Highest In 3-1/2 Years
Destatis l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

Consumer prices in Germany rose 1.9 percent year-on-year in January of 2017, compared to a 1.7 percent rise in December and matching preliminary estimates. It was the highest inflation rate since July 2013, mainly driven by a a faster rise in prices of food and energy while cost of services increased further.

Year-on-year, energy cost (total) increased by 5.9 percent, following a 2.5 percent rise in december. Prices were up sharply for mineral oil products (18.1 percent, of which heating oil: +42.5 percent; motor fuels: +12.8 percent). Prices also went up for electricity (1.4 percent). In contrast, cost fell for central and district heating: -5.7 percent and gas prices: -3.3  percent.

Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages went up 3.0 percent, after gaining 2.3 percent in the previous month. Prices increased markedly for edible fats and cooking oils (12.8 percent, including butter: 26.2 percent and plove oil: 5.3 percent) and vegetables (10.7 percent). Also, prices were higher for fish and fish products (+3.3 percent, including cucumber: 69.5 percent  and butterhead lettuce or iceberg salad: +59.2 percent), fruits (4.6 percent), dairy products and eggs (+2.7 percent) and bread and cereals (+0.4 percent).

Cost of goods as a whole rose 2.7 percent, following a 1.8 percent rise in the preceding month, mainly due to newspapers and periodicals (4.2 percent) and tobacco products (3.2 percent). In contrast, a decline was recorded for some goods consumer electronics (–4.6 percent). Cost of services rose 1.2 percent in January, following a 1.5 percent gain in the previous month. Among services, cost went up for: net rents exclusive of heating expenses (1.6 percent), catering services in restaurants, cafes and the like (1.9 percent) and insurance services (2.5 percent). In contrast, prices dropped for elecommunications services (−1.1 percent) and social facilities (-6.3 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices declined by 0.6 percent, after gaining 0.7 percent in the prior month and in line with consensus. It was the first drop since April 2016, as cost decreased for: social facilities (-9.1 percent), package holiday prices (–19.6 percent), air travels (-3.9 percent), clothing (-5.7 percent) and footwear (-3.7 percent). In contrast, prices went up for: food (0.7 percent) and energy (0.9 percent)

The harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) rose 1.9 percent from a year earlier, following a 1.7 percent rise in December. On a month-on-month basis, the index remained declined by 0.8 percent, compared to a 1.0 percent rise in the preceding month and in line with market expectations.




Tuesday February 14 2017
German GDP Growth Below Estimates In Q4
Destatis l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The German economy expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016, compared to a downwardly revised 0.1 percent expansion in the September quarter but slightly less than market consensus of a 0.5 percent growth, flash estimates showed. Positive contributions came from domestic demand while foreign trade had a downward effect on growth.

In the three months to December, government final spending rose markedly while household final consumption increased slightly. Also, capital formation showed positive development, driven by an increase in construction investment. Meanwhile, imports was markedly larger than that of exports.

The economic performance in the fourth quarter 2016 was achieved by 43.7 million persons in employment, which was an increase of 267,000, or 0.6 percent from a year earlier.

Year-on-year, the GDP advanced 1.2 percent, following to a 1.5 percent growth in the previous three months and missing expectations of a 1.7 percent expansion.

Considering full 2016, the economy grew by 1.9 percent, the strongest in half a decade.


Thursday February 09 2017
German 2016 Trade Surplus Hits Fresh Record High
Destatis l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

Germany posted a new record high of surplus at EUR 252.9 billion in 2016, surpassing the previous high of EUR 244.3 billion in 2015, as exports rose more than imports. In December 2016 alone, trade surplus was recorded at EUR 18.7 billion, compared to EUR 18.4 billion surplus a year earlier.

In 2016, German exports increased by 1.2 percent compared to a year earlier to EUR 1,207.5 billion while imports went up 0.6 percent to EUR 954.6 million. Exports and imports in 2016 exceeded the previous record highs of 2015, when goods to the value of  EUR 1,193.6 billion had been exported and goods to the value of  EUR 949.2 billion had been imported. 

From January to December 2016, Germany exported goods to the value of EUR 707.9 billion to the Member States of the European Union (EU), while it imported goods to the value of EUR 632.5 billion from those countries. Compared with 2015, exports to the EU countries increased by 2.2 percent while imports from those countries by 1.8 percent. Goods to the value of EUR 441.8 billion (+1.8 percent) were dispatched to the Euro area countries in 2016, while the value of the goods received from those countries was EUR 428.9 billion (+0.7 percent). In 2016, goods to the value of EUR 266.1 billion (+2.8 percent) were exported to EU countries not belonging to the Euro area, while the value of the goods imported from those countries was EUR 203.6 billion (+4.1 percent). 

Exports of goods to countries outside the European Union (third countries) amounted to EUR 499.6 billion in 2016, while imports from those countries totalled EUR 322.1 billion. Compared with 2015, exports to third countries decreased by 0.2 percent and imports from those countries by 1.7 percent.

In December 2016, sales rose 6.3 percent from a year earlier to EUR 97.4 billion while imports increased by 7.4 percent to EUR 78.7 billion. After calendar and seasonal adjustment, exports declined by 3.3 percent on November 2016, while imports remained unchanged compared with the previous month.




Tuesday January 31 2017
Germany Unemployment Rate at 36-Year Low
Destatis | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

German seasonally adjusted harmonised jobless rate came in at 3.9 percent in December of 2016, the same as a downwardly revised 3.9 percent in November and hitting the lowest since December of 1980.

Compared with the previous month, the number of unemployed persons declined by 1.8 percent to 1.68 million from 1.71 million and employment edged up 0.2 percent to 41.79 million from 41.72 million.

Compared with a year earlier, unemployment fell by 10.6 percent from 1.88 million people while employment rose 3.3 percent from 40.46 million people.

Youth unemployment rate decreased to 6.5 percent from 6.6 percent in November and 7.2 percent a year earlier.  

Separate data from the Labour Office showed the number of jobless persons fell by 26 thousand in January and the unemployment rate declined to 5.9 percent from 6 percent. 




Monday January 30 2017
German Inflation Rate Rises To Fresh 3-1/2-Year High
Destatis l Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

German consumer prices are expected to increase by 1.9 percent in the year to January 2017, following a 1.7 percent rise in the previous month but missing market consensus of a 2 percent gain. Still, it was the highest inflation rate since July 2013, as prices for energy and food continued to rise, the preliminary estimate showed.

Year-on-year, prices of goods are expected to advance 2.7 percent, compared to 1.8 percent growth in the previous month, as cost of energy is expected to rise by 5.8 percent (from +2.5 percent in December) and food prices by 3.2 percent (from +2.5 percent). Prices of services are expected to grow by 1.2 percent, easing from a 1.5 percent gain the previous month; and cost of rents is expected to advance 1.6 percent (from +1.5 percent in December).

Compared with December 2016, consumer prices are expected to decline by 0.6 percent, after rising by 0.7 percent in the previous month and in line with expectations.

The harmonised index of consumer prices is expected to increase by 1.9 percent from the previous year and it is expected to fall 0.8 percent from the previous month.


Wednesday January 18 2017
German Inflation Rate Confirmed At Highest Since July 2013
Destatis l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

Consumer prices in Germany rose 1.7 percent year-on-year in December of 2016, compared to a 0.8 percent rise in November and matching preliminary estimates. It was the highest inflation rate since July 2013, due to a faster increase in prices of food and services and a surge in cost of transport.

Year-on-year, energy cost (total) increased by 2.5 percent, following a 2.7 percent drop in November. Prices were up sharply for mineral oil products (+9.0 percent, of which light fuel oil: +21.9 percent, motor fuels: +6.0 percent). Prices went up slightly for electricity (+0.9 percent) and solid fuels (+0.1 percent). In contrast, cost fell for central and district heating: -6.4 percent and gas prices: -2.7  percent.

Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages went up 2.3 percent, after gaining 1.2 percent in the previous month. Prices increased markedly for edible fats and cooking oils (+12.3 percent) and vegetables (+9.7 percent). Also, prices were higher for fish and fish products (+3.3 percent), fruits (+1.4 percent) and confectionery (+1.3 percent).

Cost of goods as a whole rose 1.8 percent, following a 0.5 percent rise in the preceding month, mainly as a result of increases in energy and food prices. Cost of services rose 1.5 percent in December, following a 1.1 percent gain in the previous month. Among services, cost went up for: maintenance and repair of vehicles (+2.3 percent), insurance (+2.3 percent) and social services (+4.3 percent). In contrast, cost dropped for telecommunication services (-1.2 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.7 percent, after gaining 0.1 percent in the prior month and in line with consensus. It was the highest figure since March 2016. Cost went up for: energy (+2.3 percent,  including heating oil: +11.7 percent; motor fuels: +3.6 percent) and services (+1.1 percent, mainly due to a 20.9 percent rise in package of holidays). Prices also increased for food and non-alcoholic beverages (+0.7 percent). In contrast, cost of clothing & footwear declined by 2.3 percent.

The harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) rose 1.7 percent from a year earlier, following a 0.7 percent rise in November. On a month-on-month basis, the index increased by 1.0 percent, after remaining unchanged in the preceding month and matching preliminary figures.


Monday January 09 2017
German Trade Surplus Widens in November
Destatis l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

Germany posted a EUR 22.6 billion trade surplus in November of 2016, compared to a EUR 20.5 billion surplus reported a year earlier, as exports rose more than imports.

In November, sales grew by 5.6 percent from a year earlier to EUR 108.5 billion while imports went up 4.5 percent t0 EUR 85.8 billion. 

Germany exported goods to the value of EUR 63.2 billion (+4.3 percent year-on-year) to the Member States of the European Union, while it imported goods to the value of EUR 56.9 billion (+4.8 percent) from those countries. Goods to the value of EUR 39.7 billion (+5.2 percent) were dispatched to the Euro Area countries while the value of the goods received from those countries was EUR 38.0 billion (+3.0 percent). Sales to EU countries not belonging to the Euro Area increased by 2.8 percent to EUR 23.6 billion while the value of the goods which arrived from those countries was EUR 19.0 billion (+8.5 percent). Exports to countries outside the European Union amounted to  EUR 45.2 billion in September 2016 (+7.6 percent) while imports from those countries totaled EUR 28.9 billion (+3.9 percent). 

In October 2016, trade surplus was marginally revised to EUR 19.4  billion.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports rose 3.9 percent from the previous month while imports increased by 3.5 percent.


Tuesday January 03 2017
German Inflation Rate Rises To Highest Since July 2013
Destatis l Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

German consumer prices are expected to increase by 1.7 percent in the year to December 2016, following a 0.8 percent rise in the previous month and beating market consensus of a 1.5 percent gain. It was the highest inflation rate since July 2013, mainly boosted by a rebound in energy prices while cost of food and rents continued to grow, the preliminary estimate showed.

Year-on-year, prices of goods are expected to advance 1.8 percent, compared to 0.5 percent growth in the previous month, as cost of energy rose by 2.5 percent (from -2.7 percent in November) and food prices also increased by 2.5 percent (from +1.2 percent). Prices of services are expected to grow by 1.5 percent, following a 1.1 percent gain the previous month, mainly boosted by a 1.5 percent rise in cost of rents (from +1.1 percent in November).

Compared with November 2016, consumer prices are expected to increase by 0.7 percent, after rising by 0.1 percent in the previous month and better than expectations of a 0.6 percent advance.

The harmonised index of consumer prices is expected to increase by 1.7 percent from the previous year and it is expected to jump 1 percent from the previous month.


Tuesday January 03 2017
Germany Unemployment Rate Steady At 35-Year Low of 4.1%
Destatis | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

German seasonally adjusted harmonised jobless rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent in November of 2016, remaining at the lowest since February of 1981. The number of unemployed fell 0.6 percent and employment rose 0.2 percent.

Compared with the previous month, the number of unemployed persons declined by 0.6 percent to 1.76 million from 1.77 million and employment edged up 0.2 percent to 41.65 million from 41.57 million.

Compared with a year earlier, unemployment fell by 6.4 percent from 1.88 million people while employment rose 3.3 percent from 40.33 million people.

Youth unemployment rate decreased to 6.7 percent from 6.8 percent in October and 7.1 percent a year earlier.  

Separate data from the Labour Office showed the number of jobless persons fell by 17 thousand in December and the unemployment rate was steady at 6 percent.