Hungary | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.70 5.1 5 5.2 4.9 6.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.00 0.8 1 1.2 1.5 3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.90 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 310582.87 259884 264397 261205 262270 262068 HUF Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 75.30 73.36 72.85 72.34 71.83 67.57 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Currency 291.80 294 297 300 303 350 [+]
Stock Market 30102.83 29700 29400 29100 28800 24000 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.63 3.7 3.73 3.77 3.81 4.39 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.20 2.2 2.1 1.8 2.3 2.4 percent [+]
GDP 120.69 126 128 129 125 145 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 6212248.00 6126078 6103911 6150944 6167448 6506351 HUF Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1156447.00 1193467 1201231 1208534 1215433 1284716 HUF Million [+]
GDP per capita 14374.61 14860 14995 15129 15264 16921 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 24474.49 25302 25531 25759 25988 28810 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 225081.00 208163 210646 209616 209532 199606 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Construction 170598.00 163106 167434 162397 169748 165756 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 1233952.00 1235679 1226923 1233415 1228803 1231003 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 983039.00 984928 983191 983697 983896 983560 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Services 3525758.00 3558262 3573414 3588654 3602877 3731152 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Transport 274488.00 277486 281301 281473 282769 298836 HUF Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.70 5.1 5 5.2 4.9 6.1 percent [+]
Employed Persons 4390670.00 4359645 4361802 4367888 4365812 4365447 [+]
Unemployed Persons 219286.00 207634 206837 204430 204456 203892 [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.50 2.31 2.22 2.19 2.17 2.13 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.60 11.93 11.63 11.41 11.25 10.91 percent [+]
Labour Costs 118.50 118 118 118 118 118 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 55004.00 56218 61485 62449 64601 71415 [+]
Wages 257857.00 258986 258668 258769 258737 258745 HUF/Month [+]
Wage Growth 6.70 5 4.6 4.2 6.9 2.8 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 350.09 354 354 354 350 400 EUR/Month [+]
Population 9.82 9.83 9.81 9.8 9.79 9.71 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Employment Change 0.50 0.66 0.64 0.69 0.66 0.66 percent [+]
Employment Rate 58.49 58.46 58.62 59.44 59.93 62.58 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 4089.30 4121 4137 4166 4179 4230 Thousand [+]
Productivity 96.70 99.13 99.14 99.15 99.15 99.15 Index Points [+]
Part Time Employment 212.90 205 201 201 200 195 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.50 61.31 61.3 61.33 61.33 61.33 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 354700.00 349370 351596 350666 351054 350940 HUF/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 176600.00 172049 172352 172332 172333 172333 HUF/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 271000.00 283393 284901 284459 284589 284559 HUF/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 116300.00 115066 114645 114317 114062 113197 HUF/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Inflation Rate 1.00 0.8 1 1.2 1.5 3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.60 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.13 0.5 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 100.60 100 99.92 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 1214.60 1220 1228 1232 1235 1239 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 410.10 412 413 415 417 440 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.40 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.38 2.8 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 140.10 144 140 143 144 150 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 97.40 97.64 97.59 97.59 97.59 97.59 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change -1.20 -0.4 0.2 0.5 -0.82 2 percent [+]
Export Prices 98.10 98.06 98.06 98.05 98.05 98.05 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 97.00 97.49 97.56 97.51 97.54 97.53 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.00 -0.21 -0.23 -0.23 -0.23 -0.23 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 101.30 102 102 102 102 102 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.90 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.75 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.47 0.61 0.44 0.47 0.46 0.46 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 4906.40 5138 4988 5036 5111 5810 HUF Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 14076.70 14804 15457 16139 16851 29544 HUF Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 18429.10 18657 18907 19164 19426 23420 HUF Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 19354.00 19257 19290 19349 19429 21056 HUF Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 24999.30 24908 25042 25111 25088 25093 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 35596.10 36030 36178 36301 36402 36609 HUF Billion [+]
Loans to Private Sector 5884.90 5895 5897 5897 5897 5897 HUF Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 2.00 2 2 2 2 2 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 10297.00 10296 10330 10330 10332 10332 HUF Billion [+]
Private Debt to GDP 144.91 139 137 136 134 124 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Balance of Trade 310582.87 259884 264397 261205 262270 262068 HUF Million [+]
Exports 2597088.93 2380290 2482510 2453958 2454249 2456845 HUF Million [+]
Imports 2286506.06 2155165 2210574 2195107 2196691 2197238 HUF Million [+]
Current Account 1767.00 1975 2042 2141 2213 2850 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 5.00 5.2 5.2 5.2 4.36 4.31 percent [+]
External Debt 114419.40 112839 112115 111430 110784 105027 EUR Million [+]
Terms of Trade 101.13 101 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 2102.80 2082 301 2061 322 1929 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -587.30 -5611 -1377 -2450 -3282 -961 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 204.40 221 230 233 235 235 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 13.00 13.24 13.24 13.24 13.24 13.24 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 0.23 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.25 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 75.30 73.36 72.85 72.34 71.83 67.57 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.90 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.2 -0.9 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 59.70 -245 -155 -155 -46.73 -200 HUF Billion [+]
Government Spending 694924.00 753776 689962 710460 698606 740642 HUF Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 50.70 50.09 50.25 50.4 50.56 50.99 percent [+]
Government Revenues 973034.00 930072 996206 983449 984698 985139 HUF Million [+]
Government Debt 25266.44 25276 25301 25300 25302 25301 HUF Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 910075.00 992254 997532 997525 997620 997580 HUF Million [+]
Asylum Applications 1055.00 3085 2481 2329 2585 2478 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 1224.60 1191 1203 1216 1217 1218 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Business Confidence 2.80 2.63 2.84 2.89 2.9 2.9 [+]
Industrial Production -2.10 5.5 1.2 1.2 4.4 2.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 2.00 0.2 0.26 0.28 0.28 0.28 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.80 6.3 8.96 10.21 10.86 11.58 percent [+]
New Orders 99.90 104 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 12960.00 -52813 -26416 13650 123584 -3625 HUF Million [+]
Car Registrations 7953.00 8341 8090 8088 8053 8043 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.20 4.26 4.26 4.26 4.26 4.35 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 69.00 54 54 54 61 57 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 41.00 43.52 43.71 43.8 43.89 45.52 [+]
Electricity Production 2683.00 2617 2554 2567 2589 2577 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 51.00 53.71 53.84 53.96 54.08 56.37 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 50.00 52.38 53.01 53.63 54.25 62.34 [+]
Mining Production -3.10 -6.22 -1.86 -4.47 -3.68 -3.75 percent [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 56.60 55.53 54.16 53.34 52.87 52.25 [+]
Steel Production 131.00 125 126 125 125 125 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -16.50 -15.87 -15.65 -16.39 -15.87 -16.04 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.30 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.29 0.6 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.60 4.7 4.4 4.4 3.68 1.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 3781804.00 3915689 3727834 3889640 3815577 4075641 HUF Million [+]
Personal Savings 9.62 9.35 9.39 9.43 9.47 9.44 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 5789.30 5794 5797 5797 5797 5797 HUF Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 0.90 0.82 0.81 0.82 0.81 0.81 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 373.34 378 378 378 378 378 HUF Billion [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.17 1.15 1.11 1.11 1.12 1.12 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 21.20 19 18.4 17.82 17.26 11.68 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 39.39 37.25 36.9 36.55 36.2 35.03 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Construction Output -13.20 -16.15 -15.35 -15.75 -16.15 -16.08 percent [+]
Housing Index 114.83 118 120 120 122 127 Index points [+]
Building Permits 1241.00 1010 940 957 960 958 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 86.30 85.49 85.34 85.18 85.03 83.56 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 19.00 19 19 19 19 19 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 27.00 27 27 27 27 27 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 47.00 47 47 47 47 47 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 28.50 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 18.50 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Hungary including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Hungary economy. 12/6/2016