Hungary | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.30 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.1 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.90 3.2 2 2.2 2.1 2.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.90 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 2 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 203000.00 243958 227322 233326 231903 232166 HUF Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 75.30 74.13 73.87 73.61 73.36 67.57 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 284.13 295 298 301 307 351 [+]
Stock Market 31876.22 32800 32400 32100 31400 26500 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.45 3.55 3.58 3.62 3.65 4.21 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.60 2.1 1.8 2 2.4 2.4 percent [+]
GDP 121.72 128 129 123 134 145 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 6649999.00 6363783 6649999 6363783 6649998 6649997 HUF Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1184803.00 1257186 1209312 1244448 1220011 1223069 HUF Million [+]
GDP per capita 14516.68 14347 14518 14689 14860 16921 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 24717.89 24427 24719 25010 25302 28810 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 225718.00 221184 220021 221171 221557 221879 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Construction 192346.00 201055 191953 196976 192025 193909 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 1246650.00 1240285 1249412 1243936 1248149 1246927 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 989854.00 988538 989801 989764 988988 989337 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Services 3581608.00 3599221 3617359 3634795 3651916 3798733 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Transport 280520.00 280835 281390 281193 281326 281332 HUF Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.30 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.1 5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 4400634.00 4377121 4383986 4388274 4385560 4385727 [+]
Unemployed Persons 197565.00 191289 187598 186219 185566 185061 [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.20 1.94 1.85 1.81 1.77 1.71 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.50 11.14 10.75 10.56 10.41 10.12 percent [+]
Labour Costs 113.40 123 120 115 118 129 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 55526.00 60638 61533 63727 61685 68885 [+]
Wages 273822.00 266065 273289 270878 271684 271482 HUF/Month [+]
Wage Growth 10.00 4.6 4.2 7.37 3.7 2.8 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 411.52 354 354 377 364 400 EUR/Month [+]
Population 9.83 9.82 9.81 9.8 9.79 9.71 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 62.50 62.31 62.31 62.31 62.31 63.36 [+]
Retirement Age Men 62.50 62.46 62.49 62.53 62.56 63.23 [+]
Employment Change 0.30 0.42 0.58 0.59 0.57 0.55 percent [+]
Employment Rate 58.82 58.97 59.75 60.3 60.54 63.93 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 4135.70 4156 4189 4208 4213 4273 Thousand [+]
Productivity 113.00 105 105 105 105 105 Index Points [+]
Part Time Employment 206.60 197 197 195 193 188 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.34 61.04 61.13 61.17 61.15 61.15 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 230141.50 235486 232992 234156 233612 233785 HUF/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 180032.10 178427 177288 176479 175905 174526 HUF/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 271000.00 284901 284459 284589 284551 284559 HUF/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 116300.00 114645 114317 114062 113863 113197 HUF/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 2.90 3.2 2 2.2 2.1 2.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40 0.4 0.5 0.13 0.7 0.5 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 100.30 100 99.98 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 1230.20 1235 1243 1249 1253 1258 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 412.70 413 415 417 419 441 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.80 1.5 1.6 1.77 1.9 2.8 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 144.44 140 142 143 145 149 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 100.46 101 101 102 102 103 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.20 0.8 1 1.3 1.6 2.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 99.00 99.04 99 99 99 99 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 100.80 102 102 102 102 102 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 109.80 111 110 111 111 111 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.70 1.88 1.99 2 2 2 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.90 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 2 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.21 0.23 0.25 0.26 0.25 0.25 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 5342.10 5271 5366 5342 5346 5345 HUF Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 15946.80 16506 17232 18001 18771 27630 HUF Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 19692.50 20091 20327 20444 20505 20559 HUF Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 20515.00 20691 20899 21107 21314 23725 HUF Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 25164.80 25034 25102 25091 25086 25086 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 35971.60 36001 36046 36106 36165 36733 HUF Billion [+]
Loans to Private Sector 5951.30 5947 5952 5952 5951 5951 HUF Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 1.00 2 2 2 2 2 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 10119.90 10114 10106 10103 10104 10104 HUF Billion [+]
Private Debt to GDP 144.91 139 137 136 134 124 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade 203000.00 243958 227322 233326 231903 232166 HUF Million [+]
Exports 2391000.00 2507723 2416198 2440366 2439784 2437762 HUF Million [+]
Imports 2188000.00 2246507 2193124 2207792 2205605 2205420 HUF Million [+]
Current Account 688.00 1183 1304 1405 999 1171 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 5.00 5.2 5.2 4.02 4.93 4.31 percent [+]
External Debt 108008.64 106279 104738 102547 101007 87687 EUR Million [+]
Terms of Trade 98.21 98.24 98.34 98.35 98.34 98.34 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 184.20 -207 2082 563 959 1223 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 1499.40 783 873 658 601 622 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 227.00 237 239 240 240 240 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 13.00 13.24 13.24 13.24 13.24 13.24 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 0.23 0.95 0.64 0.33 0.01 0.25 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 75.30 74.13 73.87 73.61 73.36 67.57 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.90 -1.7 -1.7 -1.34 -1.7 -0.9 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 57.00 -155 -155 -58.24 -236 -200 HUF Billion [+]
Government Spending 719280.00 669477 695364 661573 709942 695081 HUF Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 50.70 49.69 49.82 49.96 50.09 50.99 percent [+]
Government Revenues 907206.00 1014443 1111552 1076477 1079741 1080271 HUF Million [+]
Government Debt 25823.46 25899 25894 25918 25908 25912 HUF Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 828948.00 947308 1184395 1119171 1135853 1132952 HUF Million [+]
Asylum Applications 675.00 1872 1418 1575 1589 1562 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 1224.60 1191 1203 1216 1217 1218 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 4.50 4.66 4.85 4.9 4.9 4.91 [+]
Industrial Production 6.50 1.2 1.2 5.55 3.2 2.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.10 0.17 0.29 0.27 0.27 0.27 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.60 6.93 8.32 9.26 10.09 12.27 percent [+]
New Orders 103.60 102 102 102 102 102 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 256586.00 90650 5403 238136 235218 190917 HUF Million [+]
Car Registrations 8000.00 9014 8461 8437 8328 8327 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.20 4.26 4.26 4.26 4.26 4.35 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 69.00 54 54 54 61 57 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 41.00 43.61 43.71 43.8 43.89 45.52 [+]
Electricity Production 3202.00 3100 2642 2595 2795 2732 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 48.00 48 49 49 49 54 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 57.00 50.45 51.09 51.74 52.39 62.35 [+]
Mining Production -24.10 -1.86 -4.47 -3.68 -3.64 -3.75 percent [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 59.50 56.58 54.98 53.88 53.24 52.29 [+]
Steel Production 142.00 139 136 137 137 137 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -12.40 -13.35 -14.99 -13.99 -14.35 -14.29 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.40 0.4 0.4 0.32 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.70 4.4 4.4 3.77 2.5 1.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 3945777.00 3750993 3900649 3807977 4032274 4138711 HUF Million [+]
Personal Savings 9.62 10.3 9.98 9.67 9.35 9.44 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 5787.80 5805 5802 5805 5805 5805 HUF Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 0.90 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 348.10 342 342 342 342 342 HUF Billion [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.26 1.26 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.24 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 20.60 19.51 19.05 18.76 18.43 15.23 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 39.39 41.59 40.14 38.69 37.25 35.03 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Construction Output 18.50 1.73 -0.77 -0.32 -0.37 -0.49 percent [+]
Housing Index 119.61 120 120 122 122 127 Index points [+]
Building Permits 653.00 778 872 867 859 861 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 86.30 87.22 86.64 86.07 85.49 83.56 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 19.00 19 19 19 19 19 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 27.00 27 27 27 27 27 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 47.00 47 47 47 47 47 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 28.50 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 18.50 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Hungary including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Hungary economy. 3/28/2017