Hungary | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Hungary including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Hungary economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.50 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.3 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.70 2 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.90 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 2 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 281000.00 232802 240405 239402 239527 239534 HUF Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 74.10 73.09 73.17 73.24 72.92 69.98 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 287.33 293 296 304 302 348 [+]
Stock Market 32956.30 31600 31200 30300 30600 25500 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.34 3.42 3.46 3.49 3.53 4.07 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.60 2 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.4 percent [+]
GDP 121.72 129 124 134 124 145 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 6649999.00 6649999 6363783 6649998 6363784 6649997 HUF Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1184803.00 1209312 1244448 1220011 1221386 1223069 HUF Million [+]
GDP per capita 14519.10 14616 14770 14924 15016 15867 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 24831.35 24997 25261 25524 25681 27137 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 225718.00 220021 221171 221557 222772 221879 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Construction 192346.00 191953 196976 192025 194542 193909 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 1246650.00 1249412 1243936 1248149 1245365 1246927 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 989854.00 989801 989764 988988 989751 989337 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Services 3581608.00 3617359 3634795 3651916 3667920 3798733 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Transport 280520.00 281390 281193 281326 281331 281332 HUF Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.50 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.3 5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 4367928.00 4390706 4391312 4385493 4386747 4387307 [+]
Unemployed Persons 206759.00 206638 209037 208287 208704 208641 [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.20 1.85 1.81 1.77 1.75 1.71 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.20 10.48 10.2 9.98 9.83 9.46 percent [+]
Labour Costs 113.40 120 115 118 127 129 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 55526.00 61533 63727 61685 65392 68885 [+]
Wages 274799.00 275529 274919 275116 275052 275068 HUF/Month [+]
Wage Growth 10.70 4.2 8.38 3.7 8.38 2.8 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 411.52 354 410 364 422 400 EUR/Month [+]
Population 9.83 9.81 9.8 9.79 9.79 9.71 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 62.50 62.31 62.31 62.31 62.69 63.36 [+]
Retirement Age Men 62.50 62.49 62.53 62.56 62.6 63.23 [+]
Employment Change 0.50 0.52 0.52 0.49 0.49 0.48 percent [+]
Employment Rate 58.82 59.75 60.3 60.54 60.73 63.93 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 4157.10 4206 4228 4239 4250 4311 Thousand [+]
Productivity 113.00 105 105 105 105 105 Index Points [+]
Part Time Employment 201.70 198 196 194 193 189 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.13 61.41 61.39 61.35 61.36 61.36 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 230141.50 232992 234156 233612 233866 233785 HUF/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 180032.10 177288 176479 175905 175498 174526 HUF/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 271000.00 284459 284589 284551 284562 284559 HUF/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 116300.00 114317 114062 113863 113708 113197 HUF/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.70 2 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00 0.5 0.14 0.7 0.11 0.5 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 100.00 99.99 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 1229.30 1232 1233 1234 1235 1236 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 412.70 414 416 418 419 437 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.80 1.6 1.76 1.9 1.76 2.8 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 144.44 142 143 145 142 149 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 104.20 101 102 102 102 103 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 4.20 3.4 4.2 3.6 3 2.1 percent [+]
Export Prices 101.20 101 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 102.80 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 108.50 109 110 110 110 110 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.00 2.16 2.16 2.16 2.16 2.16 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.90 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 2 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.16 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 5584.10 5565 5562 5560 5561 5560 HUF Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 15998.70 17195 17958 18721 19478 27492 HUF Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 19685.50 19991 20067 20100 20114 20126 HUF Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 20444.70 20734 20932 21129 21326 23428 HUF Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 24398.30 24424 24341 24335 24323 24326 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 35971.60 36046 36106 36165 36222 36733 HUF Billion [+]
Loans to Private Sector 5951.30 5952 5952 5951 5951 5951 HUF Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 1.00 0.77 0.72 0.71 0.7 0.69 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 10119.90 10106 10103 10104 10104 10104 HUF Billion [+]
Private Debt to GDP 144.91 137 136 134 134 124 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 281000.00 232802 240405 239402 239527 239534 HUF Million [+]
Exports 2507000.00 2439480 2455869 2461801 2454948 2457482 HUF Million [+]
Imports 2226000.00 2206798 2219435 2219108 2217599 2218264 HUF Million [+]
Current Account 688.00 1304 1405 999 1216 1171 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 5.00 5.2 4.02 4.93 4.74 4.31 percent [+]
External Debt 108008.64 104738 102547 101007 99611 87687 EUR Million [+]
Terms of Trade 98.44 98.2 98.21 98.21 98.21 98.2 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 184.20 2082 563 959 576 1223 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 1499.40 873 658 601 636 622 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 227.00 239 240 240 240 240 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 14.00 14.18 14.18 14.18 14.18 14.18 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 0.23 0.64 0.33 0.01 0.02 0.25 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 74.10 73.09 73.17 73.24 72.92 69.98 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.70 -1.7 -1.71 -1.7 -1.94 -0.9 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -378.50 -155 -90.13 -236 -75.03 -200 HUF Billion [+]
Government Spending 719280.00 695364 661573 709942 671781 695081 HUF Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 47.50 48.74 48.49 48.23 48.25 46.94 percent [+]
Government Revenues 714314.00 1101694 1037126 1045110 1047908 1046562 HUF Million [+]
Government Debt 25957.90 25952 25982 25971 25976 25975 HUF Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 1027101.00 1180658 1129744 1142289 1139909 1140294 HUF Million [+]
Asylum Applications 580.00 1235 1264 1340 1278 1299 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 1224.60 1191 1203 1216 1217 1218 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 6.40 6.6 6.85 6.9 6.91 6.92 [+]
Industrial Production 2.70 1.2 4.05 3.2 4.11 2.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 3.40 0.29 0.28 0.33 0.33 0.33 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.60 -1.56 -1.6 -1.63 -1.65 -1.66 percent [+]
New Orders 100.60 102 102 102 102 102 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 256586.00 5403 238136 235218 103863 190917 HUF Million [+]
Car Registrations 9924.00 8783 8913 8693 8727 8693 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.20 4.19 4.19 4.19 4.19 4.19 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 69.00 67 67 67 70 69 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 41.00 42 42 42 43 44 [+]
Electricity Production 3202.00 2642 2595 2795 2782 2732 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 48.00 49 49 49 50 54 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 57.00 54 54 55 55 52 [+]
Mining Production -24.10 -16.95 -17.16 -17.11 -17.11 -17.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 56.00 54.8 53.79 53.21 52.86 52.35 [+]
Steel Production 158.00 147 149 148 148 148 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -16.40 -18.38 -15.67 -16.2 -16.35 -16.23 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.30 0.4 0.27 0.6 0.27 0.6 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.20 4.4 2.28 2.5 2.34 1.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 3945777.00 3900649 3807977 4032274 3844548 4138711 HUF Million [+]
Personal Savings 9.62 9.98 9.67 9.35 9.39 9.44 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 5785.30 5807 5811 5810 5810 5810 HUF Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 384.65 391 392 392 392 392 HUF Billion [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.20 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.13 1.12 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 20.60 19.05 18.76 18.43 18.09 15.23 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 39.39 40.14 38.69 37.25 36.9 35.03 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Construction Output 15.20 4.76 6.07 6.17 6.05 6.05 percent [+]
Housing Index 119.73 123 125 126 128 135 Index points [+]
Building Permits 861.00 901 893 890 891 891 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 86.30 87.05 86.85 86.64 86.6 89.61 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 9.00 18.99 18.99 18.99 7.07 7.91 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15.46 16.39 17.32 16.91 16.35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 27.00 27 27 27 27 27 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 47.00 48.55 49.3 50.04 50.48 52.41 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 28.50 28.47 28.48 28.48 28.48 28.46 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 18.50 18.55 18.08 17.61 17.77 18.11 percent [+]