Hungary | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.30 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.1 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.30 1.9 2 2.2 2.1 2.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.90 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 2 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 173000.00 252176 239592 243862 242894 243012 HUF Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 75.30 74.13 73.87 73.61 73.36 67.57 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 291.02 295 298 301 307 351 [+]
Stock Market 33343.05 32800 32400 32100 31400 26500 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.51 3.55 3.58 3.62 3.65 4.21 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.60 2.1 1.8 2 2.4 2.4 percent [+]
GDP 121.72 128 129 123 134 145 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 6398029.00 6103911 6150944 6167448 6197420 6506351 HUF Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1231833.00 1201231 1208534 1215433 1221978 1284716 HUF Million [+]
GDP per capita 14516.68 14347 14518 14689 14860 16921 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 24717.89 24427 24719 25010 25302 28810 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 229656.00 210676 209666 209604 209399 200134 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Construction 190473.00 167434 162397 169748 162660 165756 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 1195996.00 1226923 1233415 1228803 1232367 1231003 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 983899.00 983191 983697 983896 983182 983560 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Services 3548228.00 3573414 3588654 3602877 3616324 3731152 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Transport 279980.00 281326 281507 282811 284077 298986 HUF Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.30 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.1 5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 4400634.00 4377121 4383986 4388274 4385560 4385727 [+]
Unemployed Persons 197565.00 191289 187598 186219 185566 185061 [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.20 1.94 1.85 1.81 1.77 1.71 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.90 11.63 11.41 11.25 11.15 10.91 percent [+]
Labour Costs 107.70 118 118 118 118 118 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 57876.00 61485 62449 64601 63110 71415 [+]
Wages 288801.00 267426 274441 272111 272885 272692 HUF/Month [+]
Wage Growth 5.70 4.6 4.2 6.37 3.7 2.8 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 411.52 354 354 377 364 400 EUR/Month [+]
Population 9.83 9.82 9.81 9.8 9.79 9.71 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 62.50 62.31 62.31 62.31 62.31 63.36 [+]
Retirement Age Men 62.50 62.46 62.49 62.53 62.56 63.23 [+]
Employment Change 0.30 0.42 0.58 0.59 0.57 0.55 percent [+]
Employment Rate 58.82 58.97 59.75 60.3 60.54 63.93 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 4135.70 4156 4189 4208 4213 4273 Thousand [+]
Productivity 103.50 99.14 99.15 99.15 99.15 99.15 Index Points [+]
Part Time Employment 206.60 197 197 195 193 188 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.34 61.04 61.13 61.17 61.15 61.15 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 230141.50 235486 232992 234156 233612 233785 HUF/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 180032.10 178427 177288 176479 175905 174526 HUF/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 271000.00 284901 284459 284589 284551 284559 HUF/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 116300.00 114645 114317 114062 113863 113197 HUF/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 2.30 1.9 2 2.2 2.1 2.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40 0.4 0.5 0.13 0.7 0.5 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 100.40 99.94 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 1224.80 1231 1241 1247 1253 1272 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 411.30 412 414 415 417 435 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.60 1.5 1.6 1.59 1.9 2.8 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 140.99 140 143 144 145 150 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 100.46 101 101 102 102 103 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.20 0.8 1 1.3 1.6 2.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 98.60 98.49 98.5 98.5 98.5 98.5 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 98.80 98.93 98.8 98.88 98.83 98.85 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.10 1.13 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.14 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 107.60 108 108 108 108 108 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.90 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 2 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.23 0.23 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.26 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 5624.50 5446 5479 5470 5472 5471 HUF Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 16010.00 16663 17452 18269 19084 28444 HUF Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 20050.40 20660 21113 21342 21460 21582 HUF Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 20896.60 21434 21790 21950 22024 22086 HUF Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 24712.80 24845 24881 24876 24869 24869 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 36023.10 36105 36185 36260 36332 37027 HUF Billion [+]
Loans to Private Sector 5914.30 5909 5915 5915 5914 5914 HUF Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 1.00 2 2 2 2 2 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 10125.40 10142 10131 10130 10130 10130 HUF Billion [+]
Private Debt to GDP 144.91 139 137 136 134 124 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade 173000.00 252176 239592 243862 242894 243012 HUF Million [+]
Exports 2268000.00 2515746 2423070 2446976 2446774 2444609 HUF Million [+]
Imports 2095000.00 2240521 2186017 2202898 2199655 2199733 HUF Million [+]
Current Account 1289.36 1475 1663 1702 1814 2484 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 5.00 5.2 5.2 4.02 4.93 4.31 percent [+]
External Debt 109217.96 112115 111430 110784 110174 105027 EUR Million [+]
Terms of Trade 99.80 100 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 2761.10 910 2869 2422 3944 3343 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -587.30 -1377 -2450 -3282 -1559 -961 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 204.40 230 233 235 235 235 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 13.00 13.24 13.24 13.24 13.24 13.24 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 0.23 0.95 0.64 0.33 0.01 0.25 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 75.30 74.13 73.87 73.61 73.36 67.57 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.90 -1.7 -1.7 -1.34 -1.7 -0.9 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 123.40 -155 -155 -57.21 -236 -200 HUF Billion [+]
Government Spending 659246.00 689962 710460 698606 749933 740642 HUF Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 50.70 49.69 49.82 49.96 50.09 50.99 percent [+]
Government Revenues 915928.00 1044864 1111747 1092663 1093707 1094705 HUF Million [+]
Government Debt 25806.29 25830 25807 25835 25823 25827 HUF Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 849984.00 977858 1187488 1159155 1165528 1164925 HUF Million [+]
Asylum Applications 675.00 1872 1418 1575 1589 1562 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 1224.60 1191 1203 1216 1217 1218 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 4.40 2.84 2.89 2.9 2.9 2.9 [+]
Industrial Production -0.50 1.2 1.2 -1.02 3.2 2.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.90 0.07 0.22 0.25 0.26 0.26 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.60 6.93 8.32 9.26 10.09 12.27 percent [+]
New Orders 97.90 102 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 309228.00 -26416 13650 123584 -34952 -3625 HUF Million [+]
Car Registrations 6418.00 8323 8133 8016 7942 7928 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.20 4.26 4.26 4.26 4.26 4.35 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 69.00 54 54 54 61 57 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 41.00 43.61 43.71 43.8 43.89 45.52 [+]
Electricity Production 2679.00 2577 2572 2588 2585 2582 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 51.00 53.58 53.63 53.67 53.71 56.35 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 57.00 50.45 51.09 51.74 52.39 62.35 [+]
Mining Production -24.10 -1.86 -4.47 -3.68 -3.64 -3.75 percent [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 59.50 56.58 54.98 53.88 53.24 52.29 [+]
Steel Production 132.00 129 129 129 129 129 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -11.70 -15.65 -16.39 -15.87 -16.09 -16.04 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.00 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.20 4.4 4.4 3.64 2.5 1.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 3685906.00 3727834 3889640 3815577 3988835 4075641 HUF Million [+]
Personal Savings 9.62 10.3 9.98 9.67 9.35 9.44 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 5696.20 5693 5682 5686 5685 5685 HUF Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 0.90 0.81 0.82 0.81 0.81 0.81 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 385.71 388 388 388 388 388 HUF Billion [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.27 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 20.70 18.4 17.82 17.26 16.68 11.68 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 39.39 41.59 40.14 38.69 37.25 35.03 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Construction Output -14.90 -15.19 -15.11 -15.1 -15.11 -15.11 percent [+]
Housing Index 119.61 120 120 122 122 127 Index points [+]
Building Permits 998.00 932 943 946 945 945 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 86.30 87.22 86.64 86.07 85.49 83.56 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 19.00 19 19 19 19 19 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 27.00 27 27 27 27 27 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 47.00 47 47 47 47 47 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 28.50 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 18.50 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Hungary including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Hungary economy. 3/1/2017