Hungary | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.50 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.1 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.80 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.7 3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.90 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 2 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 280000.00 265972 262404 263559 263257 263330 HUF Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 75.30 74.13 73.87 73.61 73.36 67.57 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 290.41 303 306 309 312 357 [+]
Stock Market 32828.67 31400 31100 30700 30400 25600 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.56 3.36 3.39 3.42 3.32 3.95 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.20 2.1 1.8 2 2.4 2.4 percent [+]
GDP 121.72 128 129 123 134 145 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 6398029.00 6103911 6150944 6167448 6197420 6506351 HUF Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1231833.00 1201231 1208534 1215433 1221978 1284716 HUF Million [+]
GDP per capita 14516.68 14347 14518 14689 14860 16921 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 24717.89 24427 24719 25010 25302 28810 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 229656.00 210676 209666 209604 209399 200134 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Construction 190473.00 167434 162397 169748 162660 165756 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 1195996.00 1226923 1233415 1228803 1232367 1231003 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 983899.00 983191 983697 983896 983182 983560 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Services 3548228.00 3573414 3588654 3602877 3616324 3731152 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Transport 279980.00 281326 281507 282811 284077 298986 HUF Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.50 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.1 5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 4414354.00 4361802 4367888 4365812 4364710 4365447 [+]
Unemployed Persons 207535.00 206837 204430 204456 203963 203892 [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.50 2.22 2.19 2.17 2.15 2.13 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.00 11.63 11.41 11.25 11.15 10.91 percent [+]
Labour Costs 107.70 118 118 118 118 118 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 57876.00 61485 62449 64601 63110 71415 [+]
Wages 262200.00 259922 260071 260024 260039 260035 HUF/Month [+]
Wage Growth 8.20 4.6 4.2 6.66 3.7 2.8 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 350.09 354 354 350 364 400 EUR/Month [+]
Population 9.82 9.82 9.81 9.8 9.79 9.71 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Employment Change 0.30 0.42 0.58 0.59 0.57 0.55 percent [+]
Employment Rate 58.49 58.62 59.44 59.93 59.91 62.58 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 4089.30 4137 4166 4179 4182 4230 Thousand [+]
Productivity 103.50 99.14 99.15 99.15 99.15 99.15 Index Points [+]
Part Time Employment 212.90 201 201 200 199 195 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.61 61.31 61.3 61.33 61.33 61.33 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 354700.00 349370 351596 350666 351054 350940 HUF/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 176600.00 172049 172352 172332 172333 172333 HUF/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 271000.00 284901 284459 284589 284551 284559 HUF/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 116300.00 114645 114317 114062 113863 113197 HUF/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 1.80 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.7 3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40 0.4 0.5 0.09 0.7 0.5 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 100.40 99.96 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 1219.70 1220 1221 1223 1224 1225 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 411.50 413 415 416 418 438 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.70 1.5 1.6 1.48 1.9 2.8 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 140.99 140 143 144 145 150 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 99.50 97.59 97.59 97.59 97.59 97.59 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change -0.50 0.2 0.5 -0.7 0.8 2 percent [+]
Export Prices 98.50 98.06 98.05 98.05 98.05 98.05 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 97.40 97.56 97.51 97.54 97.53 97.53 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.30 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 103.90 100 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.90 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 2 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.29 0.38 0.42 0.41 0.41 0.41 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 5433.00 5062 5074 5074 5074 5074 HUF Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 14789.70 15465 16017 16566 17113 23359 HUF Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 19088.70 19449 19593 19672 19713 19757 HUF Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 19940.10 20147 20324 20499 20674 22693 HUF Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 24383.80 25042 25111 25088 25096 25093 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 35464.70 35494 35513 35531 35548 35715 HUF Billion [+]
Loans to Private Sector 5981.00 6007 6009 6009 6009 6009 HUF Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 1.00 2 2 2 2 2 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 10251.40 10260 10261 10261 10261 10261 HUF Billion [+]
Private Debt to GDP 144.91 139 137 136 134 124 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade 280000.00 265972 262404 263559 263257 263330 HUF Million [+]
Exports 2646000.00 2449901 2433022 2430989 2434869 2433388 HUF Million [+]
Imports 2366000.00 2185229 2176095 2175880 2177119 2176635 HUF Million [+]
Current Account 1289.36 1475 1663 1702 1814 2484 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 5.00 5.2 5.2 4.02 4.93 4.31 percent [+]
External Debt 109217.96 112115 111430 110784 110174 105027 EUR Million [+]
Terms of Trade 101.13 101 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 2761.10 910 2869 2422 3944 3343 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -587.30 -1377 -2450 -3282 -1559 -961 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 204.40 230 233 235 235 235 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 13.00 13.24 13.24 13.24 13.24 13.24 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 0.23 0.95 0.64 0.33 0.01 0.25 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 75.30 74.13 73.87 73.61 73.36 67.57 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.90 -1.7 -1.7 -1.34 -1.7 -0.9 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -907.60 -155 -155 -37.85 -236 -200 HUF Billion [+]
Government Spending 659246.00 689962 710460 698606 749933 740642 HUF Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 50.70 49.69 49.82 49.96 50.09 50.99 percent [+]
Government Revenues 1276601.00 991321 1028345 1019026 1021696 1021254 HUF Million [+]
Government Debt 25489.95 25301 25300 25302 25301 25301 HUF Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 1255023.00 1014890 1029508 1025788 1026470 1026380 HUF Million [+]
Asylum Applications 675.00 1872 1418 1575 1589 1562 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 1224.60 1191 1203 1216 1217 1218 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 3.70 2.84 2.89 2.9 2.9 2.9 [+]
Industrial Production 0.60 1.2 1.2 -2.25 3.2 2.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.90 0.07 0.22 0.25 0.26 0.26 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.60 6.93 8.32 9.26 10.09 12.27 percent [+]
New Orders 109.20 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 309228.00 -26416 13650 123584 -34952 -3625 HUF Million [+]
Car Registrations 9412.00 8090 8088 8053 8050 8043 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.20 4.26 4.26 4.26 4.26 4.35 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 69.00 54 54 54 61 57 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 41.00 43.61 43.71 43.8 43.89 45.52 [+]
Electricity Production 2496.00 2554 2567 2589 2580 2577 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 51.00 53.58 53.63 53.67 53.71 56.35 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 50.00 50.45 51.09 51.74 52.39 62.35 [+]
Mining Production -24.10 -1.86 -4.47 -3.68 -3.64 -3.75 percent [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 52.25 53 52.69 52.51 52.4 52.27 [+]
Steel Production 118.00 126 125 125 125 125 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -14.10 -15.65 -16.39 -15.87 -16.09 -16.04 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.90 0.4 0.4 0.33 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.70 4.4 4.4 4.15 2.5 1.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 3685906.00 3727834 3889640 3815577 3988835 4075641 HUF Million [+]
Personal Savings 9.62 10.3 9.98 9.67 9.35 9.44 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 5688.20 5652 5641 5644 5643 5643 HUF Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 0.90 0.81 0.82 0.81 0.81 0.81 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 382.52 386 386 386 386 386 HUF Billion [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.24 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 20.70 18.4 17.82 17.26 16.68 11.68 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 39.39 41.59 40.14 38.69 37.25 35.03 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Construction Output -14.40 -14.01 -14.08 -13.25 -14.51 -14.5 percent [+]
Housing Index 119.61 120 120 122 122 127 Index points [+]
Building Permits 1015.00 940 957 960 958 958 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 86.30 87.22 86.64 86.07 85.49 83.56 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 19.00 19 19 19 19 19 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 27.00 27 27 27 27 27 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 47.00 47 47 47 47 47 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 28.50 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 18.50 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Hungary including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Hungary economy. 1/20/2017