Ireland | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.50 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.5 0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 6.60 6.8 6.5 6.2 6 5.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.50 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 5745100.00 3800000 4400000 3500000 3400000 2100000 EUR Thousand [+]
Government Debt to GDP 93.80 93 93 82.86 88.1 77.3 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 1.07 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.01 0.84 [+]
Stock Market 6596.15 6640 6570 6500 6370 5360 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 0.97 0.9 0.91 0.92 0.93 1.07 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.50 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.5 0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 7.20 4 3.9 3.7 3.6 2.8 percent [+]
GDP 283.70 256 260 238 267 284 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 66639.00 62400 62800 69995 63300 79600 EUR Million [+]
Gross National Product 55027.00 51700 52100 58162 52500 55400 EUR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 29005.00 12500 12800 22378 13400 16300 EUR Million [+]
GDP per capita 65292.38 56900 57100 58392 57600 60500 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 61375.50 52700 52900 54336 53300 56800 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 1263.00 1320 1360 1251 1400 1510 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 1653.00 1520 1530 1736 1570 1750 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 23496.00 21660 21840 21950 22240 23920 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 1987.00 2050 2120 2004 2640 3820 EUR Million [+]
Gdp From Services 20231.00 20700 20900 20769 21270 24580 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 13966.00 13400 13600 14698 13800 15800 EUR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.60 6.8 6.5 6.2 6 5.5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 2044.70 2028 2034 2081 2048 2126 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 147.40 172 173 172 169 165 Thousand [+]
Unemployment Change -1799.00 -7684 5640 -7855 -747 -1040 Persons [+]
Part Time Employment 444.90 463 464 434 468 498 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 1595.00 1546 1549 1644 1562 1625 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.20 60.9 60.8 60.15 61 64 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 4.20 4.8 4.8 3.58 4.6 3.7 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 14.50 17.1 16.9 12.46 16.5 14.1 percent [+]
Labour Costs 79.40 96 99 101 103 111 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 1563.25 1550 1550 1550 1550 1550 EUR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 839.32 859 829 815 854 872 EUR/Week [+]
Population 4.72 4.69 4.71 4.64 4.65 4.91 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Employment Change 0.60 0.6 0.8 0.62 0.6 0.4 percent [+]
Employment Rate 65.60 64.4 64.6 66.75 65 68 percent [+]
Productivity 140.90 117 118 134 119 128 Index Points [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 41663.00 43300 42000 41200 39900 38900 Persons [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 0.50 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.60 0.5 0.4 0.26 0.7 0.6 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 99.40 105 106 99.35 108 121 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.10 104 105 100 108 123 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 99.20 108 109 98.23 112 123 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate -0.10 1.5 1.7 -0.42 1.6 1.9 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 106.81 109 111 103 116 129 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 107.30 109 111 113 115 132 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 102.10 106 105 104 107 114 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 99.10 103 103 102 103 111 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 101.00 102 103 104 105 118 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -2.60 0.7 0.9 -2.71 1.2 2.3 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.40 2.9 3.4 4.2 3.6 2.4 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.33 0.05 0.15 -0.31 0.58 2 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 147019.00 148000 152000 151862 159000 201000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 193618.00 202000 206000 196729 213000 290000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 222203.00 234000 238000 224502 247000 342000 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3332.00 3460 3460 3349 3660 4880 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 41931.00 59000 64000 38481 71500 102200 EUR Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 84122.00 86100 89500 84326 95000 115700 EUR Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 421.94 415 420 424 428 446 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade 5745100.00 3800000 4400000 3500000 3400000 2100000 EUR Thousand [+]
Exports 10838400.00 9100000 9600000 9400000 8900000 8700000 EUR Thousand [+]
Imports 5093300.00 5300000 5200000 5900000 5500000 6600000 EUR Thousand [+]
Current Account -11132.00 7261 -6103 3607 2230 2560 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 4.90 3.7 3.7 4.84 3.7 2.6 percent [+]
External Debt 2073366.00 2280000 2320000 2017467 2350000 2740000 EUR Million [+]
Terms of Trade 103.00 100 103 102 104 111 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 15348.00 3260 -7560 -4747 -4500 -2100 EUR Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 2139.30 3320 4290 2230 3720 3800 Thousand [+]
Gold Reserves 6.00 6 6 6 6 6 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 25316.00 32686 25951 18115 16665 20357 EUR Million [+]
Terrorism Index 3.43 3.66 3.66 3.96 3.66 3.66 [+]
Weapons Sales 13.00 14.73 15.44 16.16 17.65 20.52 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 93.80 93 93 82.86 88.1 77.3 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.30 -0.9 -0.9 -2.85 -0.9 0.8 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 1572.00 -1400 -100 -100 -600 500 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending 7172.00 7190 7270 7320 7350 7980 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 35.10 34.7 34.2 36.6 34.2 35.6 percent [+]
Government Revenues 15800.00 12800 13700 13400 17800 19200 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt 202118.00 185000 182000 201348 177000 169000 EUR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 16788.00 14200 13800 13300 18400 18700 EUR Million [+]
Asylum Applications 225.00 250 185 217 217 487 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 1188.10 1177 1178 1180 1179 1174 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 16.00 25 20 27 32 59 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 53.80 53 53.4 53.92 55.6 52.9 [+]
Services PMI 60.60 57.6 58.1 59.44 56.6 53.8 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production -9.40 5.5 5.1 -1.86 4.2 2.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 3.40 1.8 2 1.21 1.7 0.8 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -10.50 6.8 6.2 -2.36 5.1 2.1 percent [+]
New Orders 93.40 97.83 97.83 97.83 97.83 97.83 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 444.00 436 652 378 786 439 EUR Million [+]
Car Registrations 16905.00 19800 4560 10121 1000 1180 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.18 5.15 5.15 5.09 5.09 5.11 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 23.00 23 23 23 23 20 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 18.00 16 16 15.9 16 13 [+]
Electricity Production 2754.00 2540 2050 2397 2400 2600 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 73.00 76 76 73 76 79 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 19.00 17 17 19.55 17 14 [+]
Mining Production 27.10 -5.7 -2.4 4.72 -0.2 2.6 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 100.70 102 102 103 104 103 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.50 1.5 0.8 0.48 1 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.10 5.6 5.4 2.12 4.3 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 23786.00 24300 24700 24086 25300 28900 EUR Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 195169.00 205000 207000 213951 211000 244000 EUR Million [+]
Personal Savings 15.78 14.2 14.9 12.4 1.5 -2.9 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 179698.00 182000 187000 196000 209000 277000 EUR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 1.00 0.7 0.8 0.65 0.9 1.7 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 12135.00 12900 13200 13400 13800 19700 EUR Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.48 1.41 1.45 1.5 1.48 1.57 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 55.50 54.78 54.19 53.92 56.31 44.21 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 153.01 163 153 143 153 137 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Housing Index 89.30 96 98 90.14 101 115 Index Points [+]
Building Permits 1341.00 2000 1010 1507 1160 2120 [+]
Construction Output 16.80 12.2 5.1 6 4.8 3.4 percent [+]
Construction Pmi 57.90 54.2 56.5 59.05 54.2 52.9 [+]
Existing Home Sales 2918.00 2922 2938 2967 2968 2967 dwelling purchases [+]
Home Ownership Rate 68.60 68.6 68.6 68.23 68.6 68.6 percent [+]
New Home Sales 218.00 235 237 237 237 237 dwelling purchases [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 12.50 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 48.00 48 48 48 48 48 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 23.00 23 23 23 23 23 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 14.75 14.8 14.8 14.75 14.8 14.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 10.75 10.8 10.8 10.75 10.8 10.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00 4 4 4 4 4 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Ireland including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Ireland economy. 3/30/2017