Ireland | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Ireland including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Ireland economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.50 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.3 0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 6.40 6.1 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.90 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.1 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 5051200.00 6000000 5900000 5800000 5700000 5400000 EUR Thousand [+]
Government Debt to GDP 75.40 71.9 71.9 71.9 68.6 63 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 1.12 1.06 1.05 1.04 1.03 0.86 [+]
Stock Market 6971.78 6580 6510 6310 6380 5320 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 0.86 1 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.19 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.50 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.3 0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 7.20 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.4 2.8 percent [+]
GDP 283.70 285 285 285 295 306 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 66639.00 70800 72900 74300 76900 95600 EUR Million [+]
Gross National Product 55027.00 52100 58162 52500 59996 55400 EUR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 29005.00 12800 22378 13400 23061 16300 EUR Million [+]
GDP per capita 65249.70 72100 72400 72600 72800 75500 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 61378.36 68900 71100 71300 71500 74800 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 1263.00 1360 1251 1400 1253 1510 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 1653.00 1530 1736 1570 1764 1750 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 23496.00 21840 21950 22240 23844 23920 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 1987.00 2120 2004 2640 2016 3820 EUR Million [+]
Gdp From Services 20231.00 20900 20769 21270 20985 24580 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 13966.00 13600 14698 13800 15017 15800 EUR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.40 6.1 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4 percent [+]
Employed Persons 2044.70 2050 2080 2090 2095 2300 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 147.40 145 143 141 138 141 Thousand [+]
Unemployment Change -3785.00 5640 -17850 2980 -4720 1040 Persons [+]
Part Time Employment 444.90 450 452 454 456 498 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 1595.00 1610 1630 1650 1670 1880 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.20 60.5 60.7 60.9 61 64 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 3.60 4.2 4.2 4 4 3.4 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.00 13.2 13 12.7 12.5 10.5 percent [+]
Labour Costs 81.10 85 87 89 92 110 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 1563.25 1563 1563 1563 1572 1600 EUR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 839.32 829 822 849 872 872 EUR/Week [+]
Population 4.72 4.75 4.77 4.79 4.81 4.94 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Employment Change 0.60 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 percent [+]
Employment Rate 65.60 65.7 65.9 66 66.2 68 percent [+]
Productivity 141.90 142 143 144 145 155 Index Points [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 38318.00 42000 39267 39900 39445 38900 Persons [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 0.90 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 100.40 102 104 106 108 126 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.10 102 104 106 108 125 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 101.20 101 102 104 106 121 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.70 0.5 1 1.2 1.4 1.9 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 106.81 111 103 116 102 129 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 106.60 111 113 115 117 132 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 103.10 105 104 107 105 114 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 96.60 103 102 103 103 111 Index Points [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 100.50 101 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 105.50 103 104 105 105 118 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -2.70 -1.6 -0.8 -0.2 0.5 2.3 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.80 3.4 4.2 3.6 3 2.4 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.33 -0.32 -0.16 -0.05 0.08 1 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 147949.00 152000 151301 159000 154760 201000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 193106.00 206000 194511 213000 195640 290000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 217228.00 238000 216689 247000 216670 342000 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3355.20 3460 3333 3660 3335 4880 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 41814.00 64000 40349 71500 39297 102200 EUR Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 86648.00 89500 88341 95000 88385 115700 EUR Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 421.94 419 418 417 416 397 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 5051200.00 6000000 5900000 5800000 5700000 5400000 EUR Thousand [+]
Exports 10149700.00 11200000 11400000 11600000 11800000 12500000 EUR Thousand [+]
Imports 5098500.00 5200000 5500000 5800000 6100000 7100000 EUR Thousand [+]
Current Account -11132.00 6100 8950 7560 4650 3560 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 4.90 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.1 2.6 percent [+]
External Debt 2073366.00 2160000 2220000 2350000 2390000 2740000 EUR Million [+]
Terms of Trade 106.70 103 102 104 106 111 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 15348.00 -7560 -4747 -4500 -1599 -2100 EUR Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1796.20 4290 4620 2560 1980 3600 Thousand [+]
Gold Reserves 6.00 6 6 6 6 6 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 25316.00 25951 18115 16665 19218 20357 EUR Million [+]
Terrorism Index 3.43 3.43 3.43 3.43 3.43 3.43 [+]
Weapons Sales 13.00 14.73 15.44 17.65 19.53 20.52 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 75.40 71.9 71.9 71.9 68.6 63 percent [+]
Government Budget -0.60 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.8 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -1175.00 -100 -100 -600 -1100 500 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending 7172.00 7270 7320 7350 7399 7980 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 28.00 32.2 32.2 32.2 30 28.2 percent [+]
Government Revenues 12531.00 13700 13400 17800 12900 19200 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt 200569.00 204000 206000 208000 210000 226000 EUR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 13434.00 13800 13300 18400 14000 18700 EUR Million [+]
Asylum Applications 165.00 160 230 250 170 190 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 1188.10 1177 1178 1180 1179 1174 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 16.00 20 27 32 36 59 [+]
Services PMI 61.10 58.1 57.6 56.6 57 53.8 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 55.00 53.4 54.77 53.8 54 52.9 [+]
Industrial Production 3.10 -2.2 2.5 4.2 4.8 2.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 1.70 -2 1.8 -0.8 1 0.8 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 2.90 -1.4 4.4 5.6 6.2 2.1 percent [+]
New Orders 93.40 97.83 97.83 97.83 97.83 97.83 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 444.00 652 378 786 457 439 EUR Million [+]
Car Registrations 13427.00 4560 10304 1000 10768 1180 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.18 5.18 5.18 5.18 5.22 5.29 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 23.00 23 23 23 22 19 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 18.00 17 17 17 16 14 [+]
Electricity Production 2559.00 2050 2414 2400 2452 2600 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 73.00 74 74 74 75 77 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 19.00 18 18 18 17 15 [+]
Mining Production 10.90 5.6 5.2 4.8 4.49 2.6 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 102.00 102 103 104 105 103 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.70 -0.6 0.5 -0.2 0.8 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.20 2.4 2.2 2.8 2.5 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 23786.00 24700 24086 25300 24251 28900 EUR Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 195169.00 207000 208804 211000 224049 244000 EUR Million [+]
Personal Savings 7.34 14.9 12.4 1.5 9.2 -2.9 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 177585.00 187000 196000 209000 166064 277000 EUR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 1.00 1 1 1 1 1.75 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 12185.00 13200 13400 13800 12317 19700 EUR Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.49 1.45 1.47 1.48 1.47 1.57 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 55.50 55.1 54.8 54.6 54.2 44.2 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 153.01 145 145 144 144 132 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 89.80 92 94 96 98 115 Index Points [+]
Building Permits 1341.00 1265 1525 1460 1198 2120 [+]
Construction Output 16.80 5.1 6 4.8 4.6 3.4 percent [+]
Construction Pmi 61.30 58.6 57.9 57.7 56.6 52.9 [+]
Existing Home Sales 2790.00 2750 3260 3340 2570 3890 dwelling purchases [+]
Home Ownership Rate 70.00 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.7 71.2 percent [+]
New Home Sales 236.00 240 225 270 215 360 dwelling purchases [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 12.50 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 48.00 48 48 48 48 48 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 23.00 23 23 23 23 23 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 14.75 14.75 14.75 14.75 14.75 14.75 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 10.75 10.75 10.75 10.75 10.75 10.75 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00 4 4 4 4 4 percent [+]