Kazakhstan | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.26 -0.1 0.1 0.1 2 0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.90 5.1 5 5.2 5.2 5.3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 8.70 8.4 7.8 7.3 6.9 4.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 12.00 12 11 10 8 6.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 1044.90 973 978 978 978 978 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 23.30 25.8 22.5 22.5 37.19 18 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Currency 337.80 344 348 351 355 409 [+]
Stock Market 1336.84 1320 1300 1290 1280 1060 points [+]
GDP Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.26 -0.1 0.1 0.1 2 0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.40 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.5 3.8 percent [+]
GDP 184.36 169 164 159 165 220 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 31231.35 45901 10370 21609 34690 72162 KZT Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3539.00 5609 2431 3773 3453 -1198 KZT Billion [+]
GDP per capita 10546.60 10538 10562 10565 10598 10735 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 24352.85 24300 24442 24426 25219 26548 USD [+]
Gross National Product 40877969.20 41882322 41990036 42097750 42205463 36726128 KZT Million [+]
Gdp From Agriculture 1456043.00 2118453 210813 523535 1571070 2903375 KZT Million [+]
Gdp From Construction 1832675.70 2704748 350143 1070699 1913313 3698867 KZT Million [+]
Gdp From Manufacturing 3427077.30 5041215 1352081 2555535 3769785 6483923 KZT Billion [+]
Gdp From Mining 4154492.30 5687624 1343607 2823801 4316517 6795161 KZT Billion [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 624884.00 471923 488490 486695 486890 486871 KZT Million [+]
Gdp From Services 17754971.60 12702071 13327378 13249995 13259571 13258517 KZT Million [+]
Gdp From Transport 2434594.80 1656387 -414816 -92811 166739 304 KZT Million [+]
Gdp From Utilities 622783.70 480253 498717 496325 496635 496599 KZT Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.90 5.1 5 5.2 5.2 5.3 percent [+]
Unemployed Persons 444.80 441 442 445 444 443 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.20 2.07 1.97 2 1.98 1.41 percent [+]
Wages 141903.00 140704 140759 140777 140750 140745 KZT/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 22859.00 22900 24500 24500 22859 30000 KZT/Monthly [+]
Population 17.40 17.58 17.62 17.65 17.68 17.8 Million [+]
Retirement Age Men 63.00 63 63 63 63 63 [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58 58 58 58 58 [+]
Wages High Skilled 107500.00 107500 107500 107500 107500 107500 KZT/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 152762.00 141077 139714 138593 137505 124964 KZT/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 57800.00 57800 57800 57800 57800 57800 KZT/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 3.90 4.09 4.12 3.92 3.7 3.52 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 137500.00 133750 133750 133750 133750 133750 KZT/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 84900.00 83000 83000 83000 83000 83000 KZT/Month [+]
Employed Persons 8586.60 8496 8442 8481 8568 8481 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Inflation Rate 8.70 8.4 7.8 7.3 6.9 4.7 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 652.60 666 682 690 694 831 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 12.60 9.3 8.5 8 7.9 5.3 percent [+]
Producer Prices 853.08 839 816 807 808 812 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 17.80 15.95 9.26 6.47 6.68 9.94 percent [+]
Food Inflation 10.60 7.8 6.9 6.2 5.8 3.8 percent [+]
Import Prices 101.10 101 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.60 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 99.10 89 87.08 85.16 83.24 65.27 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 99.90 100 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 107.70 107 107 106 106 103 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Interest Rate 12.00 12 11 10 8 6.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 1572842.00 1581816 1603215 1624960 1647053 1967357 KZT Million [+]
Money Supply M1 4283330.00 4385659 4693972 4969588 5217528 7230586 KZT Million [+]
Money Supply M2 11397975.00 11665191 12156414 12649045 13144390 20311888 KZT Million [+]
Money Supply M3 19326965.00 19894798 20611258 21342641 22092320 34328708 KZT Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 25102592243.00 26086150757 26982600531 27865657929 28749010480 42317815447 KZT Thousand [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 30541.00 30574 30334 30334 30348 30345 USD Million [+]
Interbank Rate 13.00 13.17 12.88 12.87 12.87 12.87 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 5431155.00 5416032 5294151 5307759 5351104 5389540 KZT Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Balance of Trade 1044.90 973 978 978 978 978 USD Million [+]
Exports 3256.80 3202 3205 3198 3199 3198 USD Million [+]
Imports 2211.90 2111 2117 2117 2117 2117 USD Million [+]
Current Account -1579.70 -30.18 -391 -33.07 -7.61 -3.6 USD Million [+]
External Debt 160444.00 164940 165864 168097 170090 183195 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.20 -4 -3.2 -3.2 -2.78 0.8 percent [+]
Capital Flows -2631.60 -1219 -787 -546 -326 264 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 248.17 256 263 271 279 366 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 1746.00 1728 1728 1728 1728 1728 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 0.93 1.65 1.71 1.77 1.83 1.61 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 4956.48 4409 4370 4385 4422 4410 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 23.30 25.8 22.5 22.5 37.19 18 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.20 -1.31 -1.4 -1.49 -1.59 -1.56 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -359428.90 -378922 -382434 -376159 -375839 -376680 KZT Million [+]
Government Spending 2645121.20 2654506 2654678 2654656 2654659 2654659 KZT Million [+]
Government Revenues 7575171.61 5181155 5184190 5291192 5279415 5279033 KZT Million [+]
Government Debt 12898625.00 13299858 13022664 13249291 13092016 13272046 USD Thousand [+]
Military Expenditure 2214.00 2310 2293 2275 2306 2553 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Business Confidence 6.00 4.72 5.38 5.91 5.66 5.68 [+]
Industrial Production 1.20 -1.1 0.5 0.5 -2.47 5.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 7.90 -2.73 0.94 -0.17 0.02 0 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -1.90 0.6 1 1 2.85 4.5 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 1026799.00 1103948 1105417 1105634 1105666 1105672 KZT Million [+]
Mining Production 4.20 3.19 1.58 0.38 -0.13 -0.38 percent [+]
Steel Production 350.00 344 342 343 343 343 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.20 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.41 4.45 4.45 4.45 4.45 4.35 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 53.00 52 52 52 46 52 [+]
Car Registrations 3852489.00 3840506 3840747 3841045 3841074 3841068 Cars [+]
Cement Production 749.90 424 332 615 730 582 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Copper Production 35516.00 33684 34290 34162 34189 34184 Tonnes [+]
Ease of Doing Business 35.00 48.29 49.37 49.91 50.45 48.61 [+]
Corruption Index 28.00 30.1 30.35 30.61 30.86 34.67 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 123.00 132 132 133 134 144 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 17.00 16.34 16.33 16.32 16.32 16.3 [+]
Retail Sales Mom 0.80 1.26 0.8 1.38 1.58 1.52 percent [+]
Retail Sales Yoy 5.60 2.96 2.96 2.96 3.6 3.6 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 10136267.10 10527727 10536482 10535267 10535435 10535415 KZT Million [+]
Consumer Credit 4051477.00 4057693 4064215 4068020 4070999 4079655 KZT Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Housing Index 106.30 105 105 104 104 104 Index Points [+]
Construction Output 4.40 12.1 4.47 8.61 11.46 9.95 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 31.00 31 31 31 31 31 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 31.00 31 31 31 31 31 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Kazakhstan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Kazakhstan economy. 12/2/2016