Kazakhstan | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.26 0.1 0.1 2 0.4 0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.90 4.9 5 5.1 5.1 5.3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 7.80 7.8 7.3 6.9 6.7 4.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 11.00 11 10 8 8 6.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 1289.20 1340 1323 1322 1321 1321 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 23.30 22.5 22.5 29.4 22.5 18 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 316.86 317 320 323 329 377 [+]
Stock Market 1565.20 1560 1550 1530 1500 1260 points [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.26 0.1 0.1 2 0.4 0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.00 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 3.8 percent [+]
GDP 184.39 197 188 165 169 220 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 45732.11 26604 27776 27704 27709 27709 KZT Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 6394.00 10999 12199 12755 12852 12069 KZT Billion [+]
GDP per capita 10616.70 10562 10565 10568 10502 10735 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 23522.29 24442 24426 24888 24963 26548 USD [+]
Gdp From Agriculture 1456043.00 210813 523535 1571070 2287929 2903375 KZT Million [+]
Gdp From Construction 1832675.70 350143 1070699 1913313 2899490 3698867 KZT Million [+]
Gdp From Manufacturing 3427077.30 1352081 2555535 3769785 5444512 6483923 KZT Billion [+]
Gdp From Mining 4154492.30 1343607 2823801 4316517 5954943 6795161 KZT Billion [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 624884.00 471923 488490 486695 486890 486871 KZT Million [+]
Gdp From Services 17754971.60 12702071 13327378 13249995 13259571 13258517 KZT Million [+]
Gdp From Transport 2434594.80 1656387 -414816 -92811 166739 304 KZT Million [+]
Gdp From Utilities 622783.70 480253 498717 496325 496635 496599 KZT Million [+]
Gross National Product 40877969.20 42191916 42088718 41985520 41882322 36726128 KZT Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.90 4.9 5 5.1 5.1 5.3 percent [+]
Unemployed Persons 432.10 431 435 441 439 438 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.40 2.18 2.13 2.2 2.25 2.05 percent [+]
Wages 136777.00 144700 142269 142679 142738 142724 KZT/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 24459.00 24500 24500 24500 24500 30000 KZT/Monthly [+]
Population 17.92 17.41 17.47 17.52 17.58 17.8 Million [+]
Retirement Age Men 63.00 62.98 62.98 62.98 62.98 63.02 [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58 57.98 58 58 59.5 [+]
Wages High Skilled 107500.00 107500 107500 107500 107500 107500 KZT/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 174549.00 167405 166375 166573 166571 166537 KZT/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 57800.00 57800 57800 57800 57800 57800 KZT/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 4.20 4.24 4.01 3.79 4.01 3.77 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 123483.10 124263 124435 124473 124482 124484 KZT/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 100116.70 99543 99880 99682 99798 99755 KZT/Month [+]
Employed Persons 8522.30 8472 8504 8589 8531 8535 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 7.80 7.8 7.3 6.9 6.7 4.7 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 678.40 682 690 694 711 831 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 7.66 8.5 8 7.9 7.2 5.3 percent [+]
Producer Prices 916.01 911 894 878 872 876 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 31.20 32.11 29.76 21.22 13.61 12.69 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 99.10 106 100 94.67 89 65.27 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 100.70 100 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.00 0.6 0.3 0.1 1 0.5 percent [+]
Food Inflation 9.40 6.9 6.2 5.8 5.3 3.8 percent [+]
Export Prices 103.50 101 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 108.40 107 106 106 105 103 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 11.00 11 10 8 8 6.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 1619063.00 1650769 1640514 1642066 1642559 1642561 KZT Million [+]
Money Supply M1 4310015.00 4272191 4154370 4191192 4205059 4188084 KZT Million [+]
Money Supply M2 12098181.00 12375350 12508706 12702771 12906134 15248139 KZT Million [+]
Money Supply M3 19075297.00 19141704 18816928 18649621 18562293 18456219 KZT Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 29934.00 29970 30178 30173 30153 30154 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 25561157466.00 25791437420 25784865925 25809874061 25807763717 25812586039 KZT Thousand [+]
Interbank Rate 12.00 12.56 11.77 11.74 11.73 11.73 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 6152813.00 6677809 6740482 6762129 6772268 6779561 KZT Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade 1289.20 1340 1323 1322 1321 1321 USD Million [+]
Exports 3276.40 3670 3651 3621 3620 3617 USD Million [+]
Imports 1987.20 2087 2168 2160 2160 2160 USD Million [+]
Current Account -2589.90 -2452 -2620 -2070 -2608 -2490 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.20 -3.2 -3.2 -0.69 -2.8 0.8 percent [+]
External Debt 165364.00 169391 171904 174618 176936 192426 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows -2179.90 -1235 -1036 -670 -500 202 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 258.05 266 274 282 290 377 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 1746.00 1728 1728 1728 1728 1728 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 0.93 1.27 1.4 1.52 1.65 1.61 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 5000.18 4691 4696 4722 4735 4729 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 23.30 22.5 22.5 29.4 22.5 18 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.20 -1.47 -1.41 -1.36 -1.2 -1.56 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -95858.00 -267220 -374685 -385638 -359814 -364646 KZT Million [+]
Government Spending 3854780.30 2907495 2888692 2891161 2890837 2890875 KZT Million [+]
Government Revenues 554759.30 5536189 5628859 5320349 5312859 5314648 KZT Million [+]
Government Debt 12771711.00 12439177 12670403 12428244 12555238 12505871 USD Thousand [+]
Military Expenditure 2214.00 2310 2293 2275 2306 2553 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 2.00 5.38 5.91 5.66 5.46 5.68 [+]
Industrial Production 4.00 0.5 0.5 3.39 1.3 5.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 5.30 1.43 -0.33 0.2 0.08 0.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 6.10 1 1 4.8 2.2 4.5 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 1880267.00 1332343 1324785 1323844 1323727 1323710 KZT Million [+]
Mining Production 4.50 2.39 1.12 0.37 0.06 -0.09 percent [+]
Steel Production 399.00 377 371 371 371 371 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Leading Economic Index 3.70 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.41 4.45 4.45 4.45 4.45 4.35 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 53.00 52 52 52 46 52 [+]
Car Registrations 3840771.00 3841647 3841673 3841644 3841647 3841648 Cars [+]
Cement Production 313.70 309 610 740 593 583 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Copper Production 33204.00 33897 34003 33997 33996 33996 Tonnes [+]
Ease of Doing Business 35.00 48.83 49.37 49.91 50.45 48.61 [+]
Corruption Index 29.00 27 28 28 29 29 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 131.00 130 130 131 132 144 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 78.00 75.7 76.65 76.26 76.42 76.37 [+]
Retail Sales Mom 1.10 15.49 -2.21 1.71 1.22 1.51 percent [+]
Retail Sales Yoy 5.50 2.96 2.96 4.39 4.34 4.34 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 16085767.20 11629333 11515432 11532244 11529763 11530082 KZT Million [+]
Consumer Credit 4025889.00 3998373 3965704 3941609 3923540 3871603 KZT Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.44 0.46 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Housing Index 94.80 94.56 94.19 94.23 94.15 94.18 Index Points [+]
Construction Output 7.10 11.79 11.17 10.88 10.63 9.96 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 31.00 31 31 31 31 31 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 31.00 31 31 31 31 31 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Kazakhstan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Kazakhstan economy. 3/25/2017