Kazakhstan | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.26 0.1 2 0.4 1.53 0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.90 5 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 7.70 7.6 7.4 6.8 6.6 4.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 11.00 10 8 8 8 6.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 1577.20 950 1000 1500 900 1000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 23.30 22.5 22.5 22.5 21 18 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 313.24 317 320 329 326 376 [+]
Stock Market 1526.50 1540 1520 1480 1490 1240 points [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.26 0.1 2 0.4 1.53 0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.00 2.8 2.5 1.9 2.2 3.8 percent [+]
GDP 184.39 190 190 190 195 220 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 45732.11 23000 35000 49000 15000 72000 KZT Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 6394.00 12199 12755 12852 12687 12069 KZT Billion [+]
GDP per capita 10616.70 10565 10667 10643 10677 10890 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 23522.29 24426 23633 23581 23655 24128 USD [+]
Gdp From Agriculture 2073584.30 500000 1600000 2200000 240000 2900000 KZT Million [+]
Gdp From Construction 2751622.40 1070699 1913313 2899490 2304901 3698867 KZT Million [+]
Gdp From Manufacturing 4862188.60 2555535 3769785 5444512 2970231 6483923 KZT Billion [+]
Gdp From Mining 5906875.70 2823801 4316517 5954943 4895488 6795161 KZT Billion [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 878345.70 470000 660000 895000 275000 1000000 KZT Million [+]
Gdp From Services 26482617.00 13500000 20000000 28000000 6800000 59000000 KZT Million [+]
Gdp From Transport 3626090.60 1800000 2600000 3800000 1050000 4500000 KZT Million [+]
Gdp From Utilities 878203.70 460000 650000 890000 280000 934000 KZT Million [+]
Gross National Product 40877969.20 42088718 41985520 41882322 41990036 36726128 KZT Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.90 5 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.3 percent [+]
Unemployed Persons 432.50 437 442 440 438 439 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.40 2.13 2.2 2.25 2.15 2.05 percent [+]
Wages 136777.00 142000 148000 158000 150000 184000 KZT/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 24459.00 24500 24500 24500 25785 30000 KZT/Monthly [+]
Population 17.92 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.8 19.7 Million [+]
Retirement Age Men 63.00 62.98 62.98 62.98 62.98 63.02 [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 57.98 58 58 58 59.5 [+]
Wages High Skilled 107500.00 107500 107500 107500 107500 107500 KZT/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 174549.00 158000 169000 184000 159000 210000 KZT/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 57800.00 57800 57800 57800 57800 57800 KZT/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 4.20 4.01 3.79 4.01 4.12 3.77 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 123483.10 124435 124473 124482 124484 124484 KZT/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 100116.70 99880 99682 99798 99798 99755 KZT/Month [+]
Employed Persons 8522.30 8600 8700 8600 8700 8900 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 7.70 7.6 7.4 6.8 6.6 4.7 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 681.80 690 697 711 733 831 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.23 6.8 6.5 7.1 6.8 5.3 percent [+]
Producer Prices 911.36 915 918 920 924 980 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 26.70 21.2 14.81 11.03 10.09 12.83 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 99.10 112 112 112 120 143 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 100.90 100 100 100 101 101 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50 0.3 0.1 1 0.65 0.5 percent [+]
Food Inflation 9.60 8.1 6.8 6.1 5.7 5.1 percent [+]
Export Prices 113.30 105 99.5 101 102 96 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 109.40 110 111 112 114 140 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 11.00 10 8 8 8 6.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 1640297.00 1607073 1607750 1607784 1607784 1607767 KZT Million [+]
Money Supply M1 4454442.00 4369560 4376426 4377018 4377018 4375752 KZT Million [+]
Money Supply M2 11951876.00 12380890 12565754 12751825 12751825 14707465 KZT Million [+]
Money Supply M3 18685666.00 17674402 17509524 17423184 17423184 17324500 KZT Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 29492.00 29574 29632 31153 32650 36154 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 24867517985.00 25300000000 25500000000 25900000000 26200000000 31000000000 KZT Thousand [+]
Interbank Rate 12.00 11 9 9 9 7.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 6152813.00 6180000 5960000 5640000 6520000 6080000 KZT Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 1577.20 950 1000 1500 900 1000 USD Million [+]
Exports 3629.00 3300 3500 4300 3300 5100 USD Million [+]
Imports 2051.80 2350 2500 2800 2600 4100 USD Million [+]
Current Account -2589.90 -1100 -1200 -1300 -700 1200 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.20 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -1.8 -0.5 percent [+]
External Debt 163758.00 164876 167245 168100 168488 174688 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows -2179.90 -1036 -670 -500 -313 202 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 258.05 274 282 290 298 377 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 1746.00 1728 1728 1800 1700 1700 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 0.93 1.4 1.52 1.65 1.71 1.61 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 6029.75 5200 5100 3800 4700 4300 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 23.30 22.5 22.5 22.5 21 18 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.20 -2 -2 -2 -1.8 -1.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -216209.00 -580000 -560000 -700000 -230000 -680000 KZT Million [+]
Government Spending 3854780.30 2900000 4110000 5100000 1800000 5900000 KZT Million [+]
Government Revenues 2306566.30 4500000 6900000 12000000 2700000 21000000 KZT Million [+]
Government Debt 12771711.00 13204003 131244 13555238 13491864 14505871 USD Thousand [+]
Military Expenditure 2214.00 2700 2700 2700 3000 3500 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 6.00 8 7 5 7 9 [+]
Industrial Production 8.30 6.8 6.3 5.8 4.7 5.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 2.70 1.14 0.25 0.46 0.43 0.44 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 6.80 5.8 5.4 3.5 4.1 4.5 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 1880267.00 1050000 1920000 2090000 425000 2260000 KZT Million [+]
Mining Production 10.00 7.8 9.5 6.4 5.1 3.8 percent [+]
Steel Production 360.00 400 410 450 380 570 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Leading Economic Index 4.80 4.2 3.5 2.9 3.8 1.8 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.41 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.48 5.1 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 53.00 48 48 48 50 47 [+]
Car Registrations 3838870.00 3850000 3860000 3860000 3860000 3890000 Cars [+]
Cement Production 582.40 1090 1000 530 620 620 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Copper Production 36130.00 33700 37800 35600 32500 37200 Tonnes [+]
Ease of Doing Business 35.00 45 43 40 41 52 [+]
Corruption Index 29.00 30 30 30 31 33 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 131.00 130 130 130 129 127 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 78.00 80 82 83 79 90 [+]
Retail Sales Mom 12.70 -2.74 1.84 1.17 1.41 1.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales Yoy 7.30 2.96 6.04 6.15 6.1 6.11 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 16085767.20 11107340 17372628 27119070 5559000 38780705 KZT Million [+]
Consumer Credit 4010213.00 4035919 4041897 4053884 4070417 4262094 KZT Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.5 0.51 0.61 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 97.60 98.5 99.2 99.8 102 110 Index Points [+]
Construction Output 7.10 9.2 8.6 4.8 6.9 10.1 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 31.00 31 31 31 31 31 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 31.00 31 31 31 31 31 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Kazakhstan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Kazakhstan economy. 4/25/2017