Kazakhstan | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.26 0.1 0.1 2 0.4 0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.00 5 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 8.50 7.8 7.3 6.9 6.7 4.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 12.00 11 10 8 8 6.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 1297.60 666 660 660 660 660 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 23.30 22.5 22.5 29.4 22.5 18 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 328.31 339 342 346 349 399 [+]
Stock Market 1453.47 1320 1310 1290 1280 1080 points [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.26 0.1 0.1 2 0.4 0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.40 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.7 3.8 percent [+]
GDP 184.39 197 188 165 169 220 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 31231.35 10370 21609 34690 51340 72162 KZT Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 6394.00 10999 12199 12755 12852 12069 KZT Billion [+]
GDP per capita 10616.70 10562 10565 10568 10502 10735 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 23522.29 24442 24426 24888 24963 26548 USD [+]
Gross National Product 40877969.20 42191916 42088718 41985520 41882322 36726128 KZT Million [+]
Gdp From Agriculture 1456043.00 2118453 210813 523535 1571070 2903375 KZT Million [+]
Gdp From Construction 1832675.70 2704748 350143 1070699 1913313 3698867 KZT Million [+]
Gdp From Manufacturing 3427077.30 5041215 1352081 2555535 3769785 6483923 KZT Billion [+]
Gdp From Mining 4154492.30 5687624 1343607 2823801 4316517 6795161 KZT Billion [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 624884.00 471923 488490 486695 486890 486871 KZT Million [+]
Gdp From Services 17754971.60 12702071 13327378 13249995 13259571 13258517 KZT Million [+]
Gdp From Transport 2434594.80 1656387 -414816 -92811 166739 304 KZT Million [+]
Gdp From Utilities 622783.70 480253 498717 496325 496635 496599 KZT Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.00 5 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 percent [+]
Unemployed Persons 447.60 445 446 446 445 445 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.20 1.97 2 1.98 1.88 1.41 percent [+]
Wages 151770.00 141435 141372 141386 141387 141385 KZT/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 24459.00 24500 24500 24500 24500 30000 KZT/Monthly [+]
Population 17.40 17.41 17.47 17.52 17.58 17.8 Million [+]
Retirement Age Men 63.00 63.01 63 62.99 62.98 62.97 [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58.01 58 57.99 57.98 57.97 [+]
Wages High Skilled 107500.00 107500 107500 107500 107500 107500 KZT/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 152762.00 141077 139714 138593 137505 124964 KZT/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 57800.00 57800 57800 57800 57800 57800 KZT/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 3.90 4.12 3.92 3.7 3.84 3.52 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 137500.00 133750 133750 133750 133750 133750 KZT/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 84900.00 83000 83000 83000 83000 83000 KZT/Month [+]
Employed Persons 8586.60 8442 8481 8568 8490 8481 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 8.50 7.8 7.3 6.9 6.7 4.7 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 666.60 682 690 694 711 831 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 8.82 8.5 8 7.9 7.2 5.3 percent [+]
Producer Prices 858.31 871 854 845 845 848 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 15.50 8.49 5.82 6.34 8.16 9.82 percent [+]
Food Inflation 9.70 6.9 6.2 5.8 5.3 3.8 percent [+]
Import Prices 100.80 100 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.90 0.6 0.3 0.1 1 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 99.10 106 100 94.67 89 65.27 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 99.40 101 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 107.60 107 106 106 105 103 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 12.00 11 10 8 8 6.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 1567794.00 1572087 1571728 1571663 1571665 1571668 KZT Million [+]
Money Supply M1 4354953.00 4448706 4377950 4366400 4385609 4386892 KZT Million [+]
Money Supply M2 11825762.00 12231092 12352025 12403822 12425983 12442283 KZT Million [+]
Money Supply M3 19725899.00 20160819 20310523 20485559 20534108 20661312 KZT Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 25102592243.00 26982600531 27865657929 28749010480 29641823984 42317815447 KZT Thousand [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 29757.00 29538 29598 29634 29630 29623 USD Million [+]
Interbank Rate 13.00 12.97 12.97 12.96 12.96 12.96 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 5431155.00 5294151 5307759 5351104 5381638 5389540 KZT Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade 1297.60 666 660 660 660 660 USD Million [+]
Exports 3660.30 2986 2963 2966 2964 2964 USD Million [+]
Imports 2362.70 2239 2246 2245 2245 2245 USD Million [+]
Current Account -1579.70 -30.18 -391 -33.07 -7.61 -3.6 USD Million [+]
External Debt 165364.00 169391 171904 174618 176936 192426 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.20 -3.2 -3.2 -0.69 -2.8 0.8 percent [+]
Capital Flows -1755.20 -885 -619 -398 -241 229 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 248.17 263 271 279 286 366 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 1746.00 1728 1728 1728 1728 1728 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 0.93 1.27 1.4 1.52 1.65 1.61 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 5000.18 4370 4385 4422 4414 4410 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 23.30 22.5 22.5 29.4 22.5 18 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.20 -1.47 -1.41 -1.36 -1.2 -1.56 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -493299.98 -395227 -381573 -396327 -397271 -395144 KZT Million [+]
Government Spending 3854780.30 2907495 2888692 2891161 2890837 2890875 KZT Million [+]
Government Revenues 8424492.29 5321997 5593415 5602264 5600585 5602984 KZT Million [+]
Government Debt 12898625.00 13022664 13249291 13092016 13289314 13272046 USD Thousand [+]
Military Expenditure 2214.00 2310 2293 2275 2306 2553 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 2.00 5.38 5.91 5.66 5.46 5.68 [+]
Industrial Production 1.80 0.5 0.5 -2.97 1.3 5.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 5.30 1.43 -0.33 0.2 0.08 0.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 2.30 1 1 3.25 2.2 4.5 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 1880267.00 1332343 1324785 1323844 1323727 1323710 KZT Million [+]
Mining Production 1.60 1.5 0.33 -0.16 -0.33 -0.4 percent [+]
Steel Production 366.00 351 351 351 351 351 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.80 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.41 4.45 4.45 4.45 4.45 4.35 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 53.00 52 52 52 46 52 [+]
Car Registrations 3850869.00 3858520 3858747 3858757 3858754 3858753 Cars [+]
Cement Production 490.00 395 546 677 620 581 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Copper Production 35416.00 34426 34334 34355 34350 34351 Tonnes [+]
Ease of Doing Business 35.00 48.83 49.37 49.91 50.45 48.61 [+]
Corruption Index 28.00 29.69 29.83 29.96 30.1 34.67 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 123.00 130 130 131 132 144 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 17.00 16.33 16.32 16.32 16.31 16.3 [+]
Retail Sales Mom 36.00 0.77 1.99 1.51 1.53 1.52 percent [+]
Retail Sales Yoy 6.40 2.96 2.96 1.2 1.26 1.25 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 16085767.20 11629333 11515432 11532244 11529763 11530082 KZT Million [+]
Consumer Credit 4066758.00 4089154 4101754 4111396 4118608 4139658 KZT Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Housing Index 96.40 95.83 95 95.04 94.91 94.94 Index Points [+]
Construction Output 15.30 9.01 8.99 8.98 8.92 8.58 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 31.00 31 31 31 31 31 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 31.00 31 31 31 31 31 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Kazakhstan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Kazakhstan economy. 1/24/2017