Latvia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Latvia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Latvia economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.50 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 9.40 9.9 9.4 9.6 10 8.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.40 2.6 2.8 2.5 3.97 2.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -229.50 -196 -196 -198 -198 -198 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 40.10 38.11 39.66 41.21 41.99 42.84 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 1.12 1.06 1.05 1.04 1.03 0.86 [+]
Stock Market 833.23 763 755 732 740 616 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 0.55 0.56 0.56 0.57 0.57 0.66 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.50 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.90 2.4 2.6 2.8 3 3 percent [+]
GDP 27.00 32.43 26.38 36.65 25.86 48.65 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 5880383.00 5879832 5529187 5879284 5529735 5876026 EUR Thousand [+]
Gross National Product 6789.00 6627 6721 7050 6405 7371 EUR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1484883.00 827972 1080679 1385158 673696 1241069 EUR Thousand [+]
GDP per capita 14327.90 14461 14663 14864 14923 15238 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 23080.00 23111 23385 23659 23686 23930 USD [+]
Gdp From Agriculture 158566.00 239603 248984 159619 153166 162341 EUR Thousand [+]
Gdp From Construction 310614.00 309649 309425 309510 309478 309487 EUR Thousand [+]
Gdp From Manufacturing 678026.00 727152 696791 697915 640314 706410 EUR Thousand [+]
Gdp From Mining 238206.00 180186 160970 235635 237630 228455 EUR Thousand [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 448097.00 356774 314199 334992 324837 328170 EUR Thousand [+]
Gdp From Services 767415.00 765061 764980 764964 764960 764959 EUR Thousand [+]
Gdp From Transport 541525.00 531849 547382 540049 535025 538508 EUR Thousand [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.40 9.9 9.4 9.6 10 8.7 percent [+]
Employed Persons 883.00 886 884 881 879 875 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 71705.00 66733 63472 62438 62111 61962 [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 3.50 3.17 3.08 2.92 2.83 2.38 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 16.10 15.21 15.45 15.23 15.36 15.3 percent [+]
Labour Costs 131.73 134 135 135 134 134 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 14142.00 14758 14807 14923 15009 15234 [+]
Wages 703.00 622 672 670 673 677 EUR/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 380.00 370 381 380 384 410 EUR/Month [+]
Population 1.97 1.96 1.96 1.95 1.95 1.91 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 62.80 62.86 62.86 62.86 62.98 63.25 [+]
Retirement Age Men 62.80 62.41 62.41 62.41 62.61 61.97 [+]
Employment Change 0.60 0 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.05 percent [+]
Employment Rate 61.60 61.75 61.79 61.73 61.71 61.77 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 774.10 776 772 764 762 756 Thousand [+]
Productivity 125.80 117 123 126 108 125 Index Points [+]
Part Time Employment 82.20 77.64 78.88 80.42 78.97 80 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 68.00 68.1 68.1 68.05 68.05 68.05 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.40 2.6 2.8 2.5 3.97 2.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40 0.51 0.53 0.46 0.54 0.47 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 103.19 104 105 105 105 106 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 103.40 104 104 104 104 106 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 103.12 103 103 104 104 107 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.30 2.41 2.72 2.92 3.07 3.41 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.16 percent [+]
Producer Prices 112.20 115 117 119 121 134 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.20 3.6 5.2 4.2 3.4 2.4 percent [+]
Export Prices 116.20 117 117 117 117 117 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 113.20 113 113 113 113 113 Index Points [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 98.80 98.84 98.81 98.8 98.79 98.79 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 100.20 99.76 99.81 99.81 99.81 99.81 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 5.30 5.18 4.96 4.86 4.8 4.75 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 8545.80 8481 8487 8492 8492 8492 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 10275.30 10431 10569 10690 10797 11388 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 12299.50 12429 12541 12640 12729 13234 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3305.81 3300 3325 3314 3318 3317 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 29024.90 28909 28843 28840 28835 28834 EUR Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 14853.90 14834 14825 14832 14832 14832 EUR Million [+]
Loans To Private Sector 5740.00 5774 5806 5832 5855 5956 EUR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -229.50 -196 -196 -198 -198 -198 EUR Million [+]
Exports 960.23 934 924 934 920 928 EUR Million [+]
Imports 1189.73 1114 1115 1113 1120 1118 EUR Million [+]
Current Account 14.90 109 101 97.91 98.78 101 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -1.90 -2.1 -3.13 -3.23 -3.38 -0.7 percent [+]
External Debt 36853.29 36605 36282 36381 36188 36019 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows 277700.00 211644 231278 268336 240164 246741 EUR THO [+]
Gold Reserves 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -51.94 29 21.44 21.21 21.28 21.29 EUR Million [+]
Terrorism Index 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 40.10 38.11 39.66 41.21 41.99 42.84 percent [+]
Government Budget 0.00 -1.2 0.15 -0.9 0.22 0.2 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 63022728.00 -4376482 -3046157 -579961 -247644 -92128 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending 1098621.00 1098414 925101 1098207 925307 1096979 EUR Thousand [+]
Government Spending to GDP 36.30 36.56 36.5 36.43 36.52 36.76 percent [+]
Government Revenues 898101.00 847558 831747 835010 834144 834346 EUR Thousand [+]
Government Debt 10038.30 10337 10601 10730 10829 11440 EUR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 827128.00 842904 833206 836783 835781 835988 EUR Thousand [+]
Asylum Applications 55.00 49.93 51.09 50.35 50.65 50.53 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 340.50 334 345 357 358 352 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 2.70 0.76 0.7 0.97 0.71 0.84 [+]
Industrial Production 10.00 2.2 10.64 1.5 10.45 1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 1.00 2.5 0.99 0.7 0.98 0.6 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 7.40 7.35 6.85 7.22 7.02 7.09 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 74.80 74.25 75.1 75.05 74.92 74.84 percent [+]
Car Registrations 4088.00 4582 4238 4323 4295 4568 Cars [+]
Changes In Inventories 12766.00 219387 28901 71610 228086 131627 EUR Thousand [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.45 4.42 4.42 4.42 4.4 4.43 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 49.00 47 47 47 51 51 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 14.00 16 15 14 14 14 [+]
Electricity Production 960.00 504 423 495 495 486 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 57.00 58 58 59 59 61 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 44.00 43 43 44 44 44 [+]
Mining Production 5.60 6.81 6.78 6.64 6.58 6.55 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -12.20 -13.15 -13.29 -13.23 -13.25 -13.25 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.10 0.1 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.50 0.53 0.21 0 -0.11 -0.23 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 3418893.00 3630835 3726703 3471023 3390057 3529023 EUR Thousand [+]
Personal Savings -2.19 -2.41 -3.36 -4.3 -4.26 -3.51 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 481.70 481 481 481 481 480 EUR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.48 3.57 3.57 3.55 3.54 3.54 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 105.70 105 106 106 106 106 [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.27 1.28 1.29 1.28 1.28 1.28 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Income 40.96 39.06 37.88 36.69 36.13 29.25 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 139.67 140 140 140 140 140 Index Points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 80.90 79.48 79.18 78.89 78.61 75.73 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 23.00 23.42 23.27 23.12 23.13 23.12 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 21.00 20.9 20.9 20.9 21.04 21.04 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 34.09 34.09 34.09 34.09 34.09 34.09 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.59 23.59 23.59 23.59 23.59 23.59 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 10.50 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 percent [+]