Latvia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Latvia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Latvia economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 9.30 9.9 9.4 9.6 10 8.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.40 2.6 2.8 2.5 4.95 2.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -151.80 -172 -175 -176 -176 -176 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 40.10 38.11 39.66 41.21 41.99 42.84 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 1.09 1.06 1.05 1.04 1.03 0.86 [+]
Stock Market 814.55 763 755 732 740 616 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 0.55 0.56 0.56 0.57 0.57 0.66 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.60 2.4 2.6 2.8 3 3 percent [+]
GDP 27.00 32.43 26.38 36.65 25.86 48.65 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 5880383.00 5879832 5529187 5879284 5529735 5876026 EUR Thousand [+]
Gross National Product 6789.00 6627 6721 7050 6405 7371 EUR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1484883.00 827972 1080679 1385158 673696 1241069 EUR Thousand [+]
GDP per capita 14327.90 14461 14663 14864 14923 15238 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 23080.00 23111 23385 23659 23686 23930 USD [+]
Gdp From Agriculture 158566.00 239603 248984 159619 153166 162341 EUR Thousand [+]
Gdp From Construction 310614.00 309649 309425 309510 309478 309487 EUR Thousand [+]
Gdp From Manufacturing 678026.00 727152 696791 697915 640314 706410 EUR Thousand [+]
Gdp From Mining 238206.00 180186 160970 235635 237630 228455 EUR Thousand [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 448097.00 356774 314199 334992 324837 328170 EUR Thousand [+]
Gdp From Services 767415.00 765061 764980 764964 764960 764959 EUR Thousand [+]
Gdp From Transport 541525.00 531849 547382 540049 535025 538508 EUR Thousand [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.30 9.9 9.4 9.6 10 8.7 percent [+]
Employed Persons 890.00 890 888 885 884 882 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 76431.00 72778 71443 71005 70864 70797 [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 4.00 3.57 3.58 3.49 3.42 3.19 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 17.80 16.29 16.44 16.31 16.38 16.35 percent [+]
Labour Costs 125.26 125 125 125 125 124 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 14142.00 14758 14807 14923 15009 15234 [+]
Wages 703.00 622 672 670 673 677 EUR/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 380.00 370 381 380 384 410 EUR/Month [+]
Population 1.97 1.96 1.96 1.95 1.95 1.91 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 62.80 62.86 62.86 62.86 62.98 63.25 [+]
Retirement Age Men 62.80 62.41 62.41 62.41 62.61 61.97 [+]
Employment Change 0.60 0 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.05 percent [+]
Employment Rate 61.70 61.97 62 61.96 61.99 62.12 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 774.10 776 772 764 762 756 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 82.20 77.64 78.88 80.42 78.97 80 Thousand [+]
Productivity 125.80 117 123 126 108 125 Index Points [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 68.00 68.19 68.18 68.14 68.15 68.16 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.40 2.6 2.8 2.5 4.95 2.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.90 0.56 0.6 0.54 0.61 0.54 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 102.74 104 104 105 105 105 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 103.00 103 103 104 104 105 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 102.17 102 103 103 103 105 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.70 1.74 1.82 1.86 1.9 1.97 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.16 percent [+]
Producer Prices 112.00 115 117 119 121 134 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.00 3.6 5.2 4.2 3.4 2.4 percent [+]
Export Prices 116.10 117 117 117 118 118 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 113.90 115 116 116 116 116 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 101.30 101 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 5.70 6.09 6.17 6.2 6.23 6.25 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 8020.70 8016 8007 8007 8007 8007 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 10216.00 10379 10499 10606 10700 11215 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 12262.60 12390 12488 12577 12655 13098 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3358.54 3331 3354 3342 3347 3346 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 29427.50 29365 29378 29368 29370 29369 EUR Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 14857.10 14867 14865 14865 14865 14865 EUR Million [+]
Loans To Private Sector 5717.10 5740 5755 5768 5778 5826 EUR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -151.80 -172 -175 -176 -176 -176 EUR Million [+]
Exports 832.80 888 870 887 875 881 EUR Million [+]
Imports 984.60 1020 1022 1026 1027 1026 EUR Million [+]
Current Account 207.00 179 179 184 189 195 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -1.90 -2.1 -3.13 -3.23 -3.38 -0.7 percent [+]
External Debt 36853.29 36605 36282 36381 36188 36019 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows 277700.00 211644 231278 268336 240164 246741 EUR THO [+]
Gold Reserves 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 36.11 45.22 45.77 45.63 45.65 45.65 EUR Million [+]
Terrorism Index 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 40.10 38.11 39.66 41.21 41.99 42.84 percent [+]
Government Budget 0.00 -1.2 0.15 -0.9 0.22 0.2 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -78107136.00 -12589842 -1578762 -360807 -387409 -461221 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending 1098621.00 1098414 925101 1098207 925307 1096979 EUR Thousand [+]
Government Spending to GDP 36.30 36.56 36.5 36.43 36.52 36.76 percent [+]
Government Revenues 765020.00 822812 809911 812650 812080 812179 EUR Thousand [+]
Government Debt 10038.30 10112 10397 10357 10454 10669 EUR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 798028.00 844091 834932 838182 837237 837437 EUR Thousand [+]
Asylum Applications 55.00 49.93 51.09 50.35 50.65 50.53 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 340.50 334 345 357 358 352 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 2.70 0.76 0.7 0.97 0.71 0.84 [+]
Industrial Production 10.60 2.2 9.55 1.5 9.28 1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 3.30 2.5 0.72 0.7 0.71 0.6 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 4.60 4.2 3.91 4.09 3.99 4.02 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 74.80 74.25 75.1 75.05 74.92 74.84 percent [+]
Car Registrations 4088.00 4582 4238 4323 4295 4568 Cars [+]
Changes In Inventories 12766.00 219387 28901 71610 228086 131627 EUR Thousand [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.45 4.42 4.42 4.42 4.4 4.43 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 49.00 47 47 47 51 51 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 14.00 16 15 14 14 14 [+]
Electricity Production 762.00 398 504 498 474 484 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 57.00 58 58 59 59 61 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 44.00 43 43 44 44 44 [+]
Mining Production 11.20 7.4 6.85 6.64 6.56 6.52 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -12.20 -13.15 -13.29 -13.23 -13.25 -13.25 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.10 0.1 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.50 0.53 0.21 0 -0.11 -0.23 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 3418893.00 3630835 3726703 3471023 3390057 3529023 EUR Thousand [+]
Personal Savings -2.19 -2.41 -3.36 -4.3 -4.26 -3.51 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 491.70 494 496 498 500 512 EUR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 4.05 4.15 4.15 4.15 4.15 4.15 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 105.70 105 106 106 106 106 [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.23 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Income 40.96 38.86 38.13 37.41 37.04 31.16 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 139.67 140 140 140 140 140 Index Points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 80.90 79.48 79.18 78.89 78.61 75.73 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 23.00 23.42 23.27 23.12 23.13 23.12 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 21.00 20.9 20.9 20.9 21.04 21.04 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 34.09 34.09 34.09 34.09 34.09 34.09 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.59 23.59 23.59 23.59 23.59 23.59 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 10.50 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 percent [+]