Mexico | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.70 4 4.15 4.21 4.32 4.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.31 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 4.2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 5.25 5.25 5.75 6.25 6.25 7 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -900.00 -1900 -1300 -1100 -2000 -4000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 43.20 45 47 47 47 51 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Currency 20.35 20.59 20.8 21 21.21 24.47 [+]
Stock Market 46913.47 44400 44000 43500 43100 35900 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 7.33 7.16 7.23 7.3 7.37 8.51 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.00 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.3 percent [+]
GDP 1144.33 1100 1180 1180 1180 1400 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 14476283.00 14370000 15000000 15150000 15200000 16900000 MXN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3085802.00 3110628 3116920 3146131 3169721 3270000 MXN Million [+]
GDP per capita 9517.28 9690 9720 9720 9720 9900 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 16501.94 16800 17300 17300 17300 12300 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 378578.58 510000 330000 430000 350000 535000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Construction 1059896.00 1110000 992500 1006500 1090000 1160000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2425039.00 2433473 2402379 2430223 2425544 2610000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Mining 892833.00 890756 884315 877050 873449 978000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 496127.87 527000 495000 519000 500000 564000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Services 8904985.60 9290000 9290000 9290000 9077017 10200000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Transport 859638.00 899000 899000 899000 873176 988000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 358813.00 355150 334895 329889 361806 363599 MXN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.70 4 4.15 4.21 4.32 4.6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 52043100.00 51500000 51500000 51750000 51800000 52500000 [+]
Unemployed Persons 2183703.00 2250000 2350000 2300000 2300000 23600000 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.50 59.61 59.83 59.89 59.88 59.87 percent [+]
Labour Costs 75.80 100 78 77 81 105 Index Points [+]
Productivity 104.30 106 107 107 107 117 Index Points [+]
Wages 316.57 318 321 323 326 360 MXN/Day [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 2.10 2.8 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.4 USD/Hour [+]
Minimum Wages 80.04 73.04 80.04 80.04 80.04 90.17 MXN/Day [+]
Population 121.01 122 124 124 124 128 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Living Wage Family 11100.00 11197 11160 11174 11169 11170 MXN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 4890.00 5037 5003 5011 5009 5010 MXN/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 4760.00 4857 4870 4875 4878 5800 MXN/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 15100.00 15300 15600 15600 15700 17400 MXN/Month [+]
Employment Rate 96.33 96.12 96.09 96.14 96.05 96 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Inflation Rate 3.31 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 4.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.78 0.72 0.75 0.77 0.75 0.37 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 121.01 121 122 123 124 129 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 118.59 119 120 121 122 126 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 3.10 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 4 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 136.05 137 139 141 136 160 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 111.52 112 114 114 115 117 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 99.38 99 98 99 98 107 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 219.19 220 220 221 223 225 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 5.07 4.98 5 5 4.9 4.5 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 96.69 97 98 99 100 107 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Interest Rate 5.25 5.25 5.75 6.25 6.25 7 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 5.11 5.4 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 1267091.00 1300000 1350000 1400000 1430000 1590000 MXN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3492760018.00 3466038560 3467028776 3478090512 3458558303 3810154560 MXN Thousand [+]
Money Supply M2 12194536649.00 12415599213 12697674546 12983648801 13274749377 17687678819 MXN Thousand [+]
Money Supply M3 14600797310.00 14749098334 15087218856 15439892637 15805720587 21599600054 MXN Thousand [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 180499.00 181236 181647 181947 182206 193000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5340864.00 5456443 5595863 5737096 5880498 8040886 MXN Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 1849467384.00 1919381881 1972110325 2023923861 2074806022 2658217115 MXN Thousand [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.59 0.85 1.02 1.02 1.02 2.29 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3504998168.00 3565944930 3624976000 3682160179 3738113782 4437452001 MXN Thousand [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Balance of Trade -900.00 -1900 -1300 -1100 -2000 -4000 USD Million [+]
Exports 32593.90 32800 31700 30500 29500 28000 USD Million [+]
Imports 33493.40 34700 33000 31600 31400 32000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -7571.09 -7990 -8100 -8020 -8100 -9500 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.80 -2.7 -3 -3 -3 -3.3 percent [+]
External Debt 3405.12 3330 3350 3370 3400 4020 MXN Billion [+]
Terms of Trade 45.34 45.1 44.5 45 45 45 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 4314297.70 7100000 6500000 7100000 6900000 8290000 USD Thousand [+]
Remittances 2378.17 2400 2382 2372 2378 2380 USD Million [+]
Tourism Revenues 1150212.08 2050000 2050000 2050000 1237384 2300000 USD Thousand [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1193.95 2500 2500 2500 1564 3360 Thousand [+]
Gold Reserves 120.88 121 121 121 121 121 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 2179.00 2190 2191 2191 2191 2191 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 3.72 3.99 3.99 3.99 3.2 4.1 [+]
Capital Flows 6846.13 7230 6765 6313 5962 6082 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 43.20 45 47 47 47 51 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.50 -3.3 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.9 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 28884.30 -61087 -30371 -39662 -35455 -18300 MXN Million [+]
Government Spending 1555077.00 1630000 1630000 1630000 1562638 1740000 MXN Million [+]
Government Revenues 328459.00 402077 381286 373488 377343 378049 MXN Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 514757.00 638664 425881 428890 432807 796904 MXN Million [+]
Military Expenditure 8976.00 9281 9401 9521 9621 11149 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Business Confidence 52.00 52.1 51.8 51.6 52 53.5 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.10 51.7 51.5 51.7 52.1 51.8 [+]
Industrial Production -1.33 1.5 1 0.8 0.2 1.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.10 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 0.45 2.6 1.18 2.07 2.4 2.24 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 80.50 80.31 80.77 80.76 80.58 80.64 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 73338.00 76029 73157 66729 66957 69411 MXN Million [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 88491.00 85288 86092 86132 86096 77000 [+]
Car Production 318.15 319 266 303 275 229 Thousand Units [+]
Car Registrations 88491.00 10100 80000 84000 79000 85000 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 1.60 2.2 2 1.9 1.8 2.1 percent [+]
Mining Production -9.66 -6.69 -6.95 -6.9 -6.9 1 percent [+]
Steel Production 1650.00 1638 1634 1628 1629 1630 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.41 4.29 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.43 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 51.00 57 51 51 51 50 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 47.00 38 38 38 38 34 [+]
Corruption Index 35.00 35 36 36 36 38 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 95.00 95 93 93 93 88 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 84.40 84.5 84 83 82 99 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.20 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 8.10 7 5 4.5 4 3 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 9596439.00 10133283 9627948 9701821 9896966 11102241 MXN Million [+]
Personal Savings 19.90 19 19.32 19.64 19.96 20.65 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 1094618.40 1153690 1195822 1225648 1254389 1563666 MXN Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 3570737514.00 3704491215 3805107114 3903835414 4000420511 5082565983 MXN Thousand [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 16.20 16.74 16.9 17.02 17.15 17.68 percent of GDP [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.68 0.71 0.7 0.69 0.69 0.7 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Construction Output 1.04 0.2 1.2 1 1.8 2.6 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 76.40 76.4 76.4 76.4 76.4 78 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 16.00 16 16 16 16 16 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Mexico including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Mexico economy. 12/9/2016