Mexico | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.19 4.21 4.32 4.4 4.2 5.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 5.35 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.7 4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 6.50 7.25 7.5 7.75 8 7 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 684.00 1500 100 -1200 -1000 -4000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 43.20 47 47 47 49 51 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 18.62 18.92 19.1 19.67 19.48 22.48 [+]
Stock Market 48967.83 48100 47600 46100 46600 38800 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 7.22 7.09 7.16 7.23 7.3 8.42 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.40 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.3 percent [+]
GDP 1143.79 987 987 987 1150 1250 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 14589507.00 15150000 15200000 15270000 14675930 16900000 MXN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3132090.00 3143463 3144531 3144110 3143252 3270000 MXN Million [+]
GDP per capita 9510.60 9720 9720 9720 9780 9900 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 16490.35 17300 17300 17300 117600 12300 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 539757.46 430000 350000 508000 424835 535000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Construction 1133037.00 1006500 1090000 1120000 1100481 1160000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2438973.00 2433382 2428582 2400000 2424712 2610000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Mining 863806.00 853445 845405 941000 831957 978000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 526678.93 519000 500000 535000 503859 564000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Services 9277217.94 9290000 9141422 9540000 9228341 10200000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Transport 882542.00 899000 870664 919000 871787 988000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 349198.00 323161 363089 354380 332779 358404 MXN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.19 4.21 4.32 4.4 4.2 5.5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 52123674.00 51750000 51800000 51900000 53110916 52500000 [+]
Unemployed Persons 1911126.00 2300000 2300000 2370000 1850791 23600000 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.35 59.77 59.89 59.87 59.85 59.85 percent [+]
Labour Costs 70.90 77 81 101 73.89 105 Index Points [+]
Productivity 110.90 109 108 112 108 117 Index Points [+]
Wages 331.43 333 331 332 330 377 MXN/Day [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 2.00 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.4 USD/Hour [+]
Minimum Wages 80.04 80.04 80.04 80.04 86.02 96.17 MXN/Day [+]
Population 122.27 124 124 122 122 128 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Living Wage Family 7912.50 8454 8461 8462 8462 8462 MXN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 4955.00 5061 5078 5087 5091 5095 MXN/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 4760.00 4875 4878 5200 4879 5800 MXN/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 15100.00 15600 15700 15700 15800 17400 MXN/Month [+]
Employment Rate 96.81 96.62 96.05 96.1 96.63 96 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 5.35 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.7 4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.61 0.77 0.75 0.6 0.5 0.44 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 126.09 129 132 134 138 139 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 121.69 123 125 127 130 133 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 4.48 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.6 4 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 138.09 142 136 145 147 162 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 117.09 119 120 121 128 122 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 101.05 99 98 99 102 107 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 222.57 221 223 223 225 225 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 4.23 5 4.9 4.8 4.58 4.5 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 99.57 101 102 104 106 107 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 6.50 7.25 7.5 7.75 8 7 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 6.63 6.8 7.3 7.6 7.7 6.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 1370072.10 1400000 1430000 1450000 1368046 1590000 MXN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3802420458.00 3478090512 3822694484 3580426279 3821258798 3810154560 MXN Thousand [+]
Money Supply M2 12449275542.00 12750416512 12966663018 13182770758 13398436500 15745085192 MXN Thousand [+]
Money Supply M3 14866156820.00 15216056693 15459988801 15703547191 15946251622 18563220417 MXN Thousand [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 179746.00 181273 181728 173000 182306 193000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5482218.32 5635215 5734835 5834490 5933539 6978050 MXN Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2056799271.00 2146270044 2204725655 2261906656 2318108284 2871341973 MXN Thousand [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.59 1.02 1.02 1.02 2.03 2.29 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3582636275.00 3720564474 3764347566 3821138765 3876315033 4463344553 MXN Thousand [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 684.00 1500 100 -1200 -1000 -4000 USD Million [+]
Exports 31269.33 32000 30500 29700 29500 28000 USD Million [+]
Imports 30584.89 30500 30400 30900 30500 32000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -3362.67 -3900 -3100 -5500 -8600 -9500 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.70 -3 -3 -3 -3.1 -3.3 percent [+]
External Debt 412033.60 3370 3400 3400 96991 4020 MXN Billion [+]
Terms of Trade 45.40 45.81 45.75 45.76 45.76 45.76 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 5726189.20 6300000 6000000 5250000 5922042 6290000 USD Thousand [+]
Remittances 2051.87 2042 2063 2062 2050 2054 USD Million [+]
Tourism Revenues 1792788.13 2050000 1639410 2090000 1636906 2300000 USD Thousand [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1772.48 2500 1711 2870 1711 3360 Thousand [+]
Gold Reserves 120.46 121 120 122 120 120 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 2067.00 2102 2101 2101 2101 2101 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 3.72 3.99 3.69 3.99 4 4.1 [+]
Capital Flows 15409.60 8518 5962 5830 7504 6082 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 43.20 47 47 47 49 51 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.50 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.7 -3.9 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -1930.00 -82791 -30498 -35600 -40650 -18300 MXN Million [+]
Government Spending 1623290.00 1630000 1580626 164000 1584330 1740000 MXN Million [+]
Government Revenues 354028.80 385948 420042 420992 410142 413120 MXN Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 356533.90 527749 435015 658041 451561 796904 MXN Million [+]
Military Expenditure 8976.00 9281 9401 9521 9621 11149 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 46.22 46 48 49 50 53.5 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.50 51.9 51 50.8 51.4 51.8 [+]
Industrial Production -1.70 0.1 -0.2 0.5 1.1 1.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.10 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.09 2.5 2.44 2.43 2.42 2.42 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 81.00 81.2 80.94 80.86 80.98 80.97 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 23968.00 39762 43614 54197 47914 43628 MXN Million [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 79052.00 91211 90451 80000 90318 77000 [+]
Car Production 363.69 315 300 290 310 229 Thousand Units [+]
Car Registrations 79052.00 84000 79000 80000 93000 85000 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 3.00 1.9 1.8 2.1 3.08 2.1 percent [+]
Private Investment -0.50 -0.26 -0.27 -0.27 -0.28 -0.28 percent [+]
Mining Production -13.65 -10.24 -10.51 -1.8 -10.5 1 percent [+]
Steel Production 1530.00 1536 1545 1546 1544 1545 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.39 4.43 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 51.00 51 51 51 50 50 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 47.00 48 48 48 48 34 [+]
Corruption Index 30.00 36 36 36 37 38 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 123.00 93 93 93 90 88 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 81.50 73 72 71 70 99 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -1.10 0.3 0.2 0.42 0.38 0.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.90 4.5 4 5 2.9 3 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 10232252.02 9757647 9971143 10337068 9858918 10341747 MXN Million [+]
Personal Savings 19.90 19.68 19.34 19 19.32 20.65 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 1188926.50 1270671 1315016 1347814 1387824 1701412 MXN Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 3840060461.00 3982432493 4075997584 4167985176 4257903218 5122461052 MXN Thousand [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 16.50 16.79 16.9 16.96 17.02 17.27 percent of GDP [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.87 0.91 0.92 0.89 0.85 0.7 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Construction Output 3.03 1 1.8 2 1.9 2.6 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 76.40 76.4 76.4 76.4 76.09 78 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 26 22 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 38.01 38.04 35 40.56 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 16.00 16 16 16 16 16 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.26 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.58 7.58 7.57 7.58 7.58 7.59 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.65 1.65 1.64 1.64 1.65 1.64 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Mexico including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Mexico economy. 4/24/2017