Mexico | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.40 4.15 4.21 4.32 4.4 5.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 4.86 5 5.3 5.5 5.6 4.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 6.25 6.75 7.25 7.5 7.75 7 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 684.00 -1300 -1100 -2000 -2000 -4000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 43.20 47 47 47 47 51 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 19.01 20.18 20.38 20.58 20.98 23.98 [+]
Stock Market 49339.24 46700 46200 45700 44800 37700 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 7.16 7.49 7.57 7.64 7.72 8.9 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.40 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.3 percent [+]
GDP 1143.79 987 987 987 987 1250 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 14589507.00 15000000 15150000 15200000 15270000 16900000 MXN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3132090.00 3140848 3143463 3144531 3144110 3270000 MXN Million [+]
GDP per capita 9510.60 9720 9720 9720 9720 9900 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 16490.35 17300 17300 17300 17300 12300 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 539757.46 330000 430000 350000 508000 535000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Construction 1133037.00 992500 1006500 1090000 1120000 1160000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2438973.00 2404853 2433382 2428582 2400000 2610000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Mining 863806.00 864993 853445 845405 941000 978000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 526678.93 495000 519000 500000 535000 564000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Services 9277217.94 9290000 9290000 9141422 9540000 10200000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Transport 882542.00 899000 899000 870664 919000 988000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 349198.00 327929 323161 363089 354380 358404 MXN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.40 4.15 4.21 4.32 4.4 5.5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 52123674.00 51500000 51750000 51800000 51900000 52500000 [+]
Unemployed Persons 1911126.00 2350000 2300000 2300000 2370000 23600000 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.36 59.45 59.81 59.89 59.87 59.86 percent [+]
Labour Costs 66.60 78 77 81 101 105 Index Points [+]
Productivity 106.90 107 107 107 112 117 Index Points [+]
Wages 331.14 321 323 326 330 360 MXN/Day [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 1.90 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.7 2.4 USD/Hour [+]
Minimum Wages 80.04 80.04 80.04 80.04 80.04 90.17 MXN/Day [+]
Population 122.27 124 124 124 122 128 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Living Wage Family 7912.50 8395 8454 8461 8462 8462 MXN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 4955.00 5026 5061 5078 5087 5095 MXN/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 4760.00 4870 4875 4878 5200 5800 MXN/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 15100.00 15600 15600 15700 15700 17400 MXN/Month [+]
Employment Rate 96.63 96.54 96.49 96.05 96.1 96 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 4.86 5 5.3 5.5 5.6 4.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.58 0.41 0.77 0.75 0.6 0.39 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 125.32 122 123 124 124 129 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 121.00 120 121 122 123 126 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 4.25 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.5 4 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 138.09 140 142 136 145 162 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 117.56 118 122 124 126 133 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 98.05 98 99 98 99 107 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 221.75 220 221 223 223 225 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.40 5 5 4.9 4.8 4.5 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 99.07 98 99 100 102 107 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 6.25 6.75 7.25 7.5 7.75 7 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 6.44 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 1367860.80 1350000 1400000 1430000 1450000 1590000 MXN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3814370272.00 3467028776 3478090512 3838627571 3580426279 3810154560 MXN Thousand [+]
Money Supply M2 12464756065.00 12633597139 12852717108 13079690495 13307141084 16007337468 MXN Thousand [+]
Money Supply M3 14834688834.00 15006818453 15247874977 15495896346 15743862629 18658702920 MXN Thousand [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 176688.00 176745 176158 175748 173000 193000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5530077.00 5649533 5760339 5874396 5988895 7312069 MXN Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2056375501.00 2109358213 2174440472 2239891714 2303965276 2996247029 MXN Thousand [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.59 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 2.29 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3754676764.00 3802072895 3893379297 3961254281 4029736208 4828118170 MXN Thousand [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade 684.00 -1300 -1100 -2000 -2000 -4000 USD Million [+]
Exports 31269.33 31700 30500 29500 29400 28000 USD Million [+]
Imports 30584.89 33000 31600 31400 316000 32000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -3362.67 -8100 -8020 -8100 -8500 -9500 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.70 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3.3 percent [+]
External Debt 3509.44 3350 3370 3400 3400 4020 MXN Billion [+]
Terms of Trade 44.22 44.5 44.33 44.31 44.31 44.31 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 5726189.20 6500000 6300000 6000000 5250000 6290000 USD Thousand [+]
Remittances 2055.22 2094 2120 2169 2171 2154 USD Million [+]
Tourism Revenues 1920463.40 2050000 2050000 1616286 2090000 2300000 USD Thousand [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1831.51 2500 2500 1668 2870 3360 Thousand [+]
Gold Reserves 120.46 121 121 120 122 120 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 2104.00 2129 2131 2131 2131 2131 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 3.72 3.99 3.99 3.69 3.99 4.1 [+]
Capital Flows 15409.60 6765 8518 5962 5830 6082 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 43.20 47 47 47 47 51 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.50 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.9 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -29619.90 -26036 -82972 -30488 -35600 -18300 MXN Million [+]
Government Spending 1623290.00 1630000 1630000 1580626 164000 1740000 MXN Million [+]
Government Revenues 630849.60 386206 398411 426722 425722 419360 MXN Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 822850.20 407352 418673 419323 658041 796904 MXN Million [+]
Military Expenditure 8976.00 9281 9401 9521 9621 11149 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 43.24 51.8 51.6 52 51.8 53.5 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 50.60 49 48 49 50 51.8 [+]
Industrial Production -0.10 1 0.8 0.2 0.3 1.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.10 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 4.30 3.82 4.25 4.38 4.42 4.44 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 81.10 80.67 80.8 80.3 80.25 80.41 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 23968.00 39560 39762 43614 54197 43628 MXN Million [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 81700.00 93486 93853 93449 80000 77000 [+]
Car Production 301.48 266 303 275 227 229 Thousand Units [+]
Car Registrations 81700.00 80000 84000 79000 80000 85000 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 3.00 2 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.1 percent [+]
Private Investment 0.90 1.46 1.64 1.68 1.69 1.69 percent [+]
Mining Production -9.80 -8.93 -9.09 -9.06 -1.8 1 percent [+]
Steel Production 1530.00 1542 1536 1545 1546 1545 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.43 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 51.00 51 51 51 51 50 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 47.00 38 38 38 38 34 [+]
Corruption Index 30.00 36 36 36 36 38 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 123.00 93 93 93 93 88 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 75.70 84 83 82 81 99 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -1.10 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.42 0.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.90 5 4.5 4 5 3 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 10232252.02 9718023 9757647 9971143 10337068 10341747 MXN Million [+]
Personal Savings 19.90 20.02 19.68 19.34 19 20.65 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 1188926.50 1235556 1270671 1315016 1347814 1701412 MXN Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 3833024197.00 3912989955 4021654814 4127735915 4231458413 5332006590 MXN Thousand [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 16.50 16.69 16.79 16.9 16.96 17.27 percent of GDP [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.77 0.8 0.79 0.79 0.77 0.7 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Construction Output -0.99 1.2 1 1.8 2 2.6 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 76.40 76.4 76.4 76.4 76.4 78 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 28 22 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 16.00 16 16 16 16 16 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Mexico including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Mexico economy. 3/29/2017