Mexico | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.40 4.15 4.21 4.32 4.4 5.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 4.72 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 6.25 6.5 6.75 7 7.5 7 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 28.00 -1300 -1100 -2000 -2000 -4000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 43.20 47 47 47 47 51 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 19.91 21.13 21.34 21.55 21.76 24.86 [+]
Stock Market 47047.67 44400 43900 43500 43000 36200 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 7.27 7.78 7.86 7.94 7.67 9.16 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.40 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.3 percent [+]
GDP 1143.79 987 987 987 987 1250 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 14589507.00 15000000 15150000 15200000 15270000 16900000 MXN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3098922.00 3102788 3103381 3104113 3104362 3270000 MXN Million [+]
GDP per capita 9510.60 9720 9720 9720 9720 9900 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 16490.35 17300 17300 17300 17300 12300 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 539757.46 330000 430000 350000 508000 535000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Construction 1133037.00 992500 1006500 1090000 1120000 1160000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2438973.00 2404853 2433382 2428582 2400000 2610000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Mining 863806.00 864993 853445 845405 941000 978000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 526678.93 495000 519000 500000 535000 564000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Services 9277217.94 9290000 9290000 9141422 9540000 10200000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Transport 882542.00 899000 899000 870664 919000 988000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 349198.00 327929 323161 363089 354380 358404 MXN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.40 4.15 4.21 4.32 4.4 5.5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 52123674.00 51500000 51750000 51800000 51900000 52500000 [+]
Unemployed Persons 1911126.00 2350000 2300000 2300000 2370000 23600000 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.40 59.88 59.87 59.86 59.87 59.87 percent [+]
Labour Costs 89.70 78 77 81 101 105 Index Points [+]
Productivity 105.60 107 107 107 112 117 Index Points [+]
Wages 331.14 321 323 326 330 360 MXN/Day [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 2.50 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.7 2.4 USD/Hour [+]
Minimum Wages 80.04 80.04 80.04 80.04 80.04 90.17 MXN/Day [+]
Population 122.27 124 124 124 122 128 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Living Wage Family 7912.50 8395 8454 8461 8462 8462 MXN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 4955.00 5026 5061 5078 5087 5095 MXN/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 4760.00 4870 4875 4878 5200 5800 MXN/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 15100.00 15600 15600 15700 15700 17400 MXN/Month [+]
Employment Rate 96.63 96.16 96.25 96.05 96.1 96 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 4.72 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.70 0.75 0.77 0.75 0.6 0.55 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 124.60 122 123 124 124 129 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 120.08 120 121 122 123 126 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 3.84 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.5 4 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 138.09 140 142 136 145 162 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 117.15 120 125 129 133 151 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 98.82 98 99 98 99 107 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 220.77 220 221 223 223 225 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 3.24 5 5 4.9 4.8 4.5 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 98.33 98 99 100 102 107 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 6.25 6.5 6.75 7 7.5 7 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 6.13 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 1382791.00 1350000 1400000 1430000 1450000 1590000 MXN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3872816628.00 3467028776 3478090512 3918285525 3580426279 3810154560 MXN Thousand [+]
Money Supply M2 12490135521.00 12725856214 12966762987 13208142455 13449179799 16310344688 MXN Thousand [+]
Money Supply M3 14831989970.00 15073300538 15333078519 15593719056 15853492238 18911321360 MXN Thousand [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 178025.00 177237 176831 176522 173000 193000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5552468.00 5677233 5797452 5917546 6037177 7415888 MXN Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2059451519.00 2127920275 2199369955 2270423939 2340247647 3099380295 MXN Thousand [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.59 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 2.29 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3864161729.00 3906685244 3984819816 4060288591 4135135525 5007400955 MXN Thousand [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade 28.00 -1300 -1100 -2000 -2000 -4000 USD Million [+]
Exports 33232.30 31700 30500 29500 29400 28000 USD Million [+]
Imports 33204.10 33000 31600 31400 316000 32000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -3362.67 -8100 -8020 -8100 -8500 -9500 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.70 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3.3 percent [+]
External Debt 3509.44 3350 3370 3400 3400 4020 MXN Billion [+]
Terms of Trade 44.76 44.5 44.75 44.74 44.74 44.74 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 5726189.20 6500000 6300000 6000000 5250000 6290000 USD Thousand [+]
Remittances 2336.43 2283 2324 2346 2331 2328 USD Million [+]
Tourism Revenues 2124964.35 2050000 2050000 1636627 2090000 2300000 USD Thousand [+]
Tourist Arrivals 2496.24 2500 2500 1696 2870 3360 Thousand [+]
Gold Reserves 120.88 121 121 121 122 121 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 2104.00 2129 2131 2131 2131 2131 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 3.72 3.99 3.99 3.69 3.99 4.1 [+]
Capital Flows 15409.60 6765 8518 5962 5830 6082 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 43.20 47 47 47 47 51 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.50 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.9 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -224842.20 -27908 -40020 -35288 -35600 -18300 MXN Million [+]
Government Spending 1557456.00 1630000 1630000 1569004 164000 1740000 MXN Million [+]
Government Revenues 630849.60 367136 372867 374791 374422 374226 MXN Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 822850.20 407352 418673 419323 658041 796904 MXN Million [+]
Military Expenditure 8976.00 9281 9401 9521 9621 11149 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 42.81 51.8 51.6 52 51.8 53.5 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 50.80 49 48 49 50 51.8 [+]
Industrial Production -0.60 1 0.8 0.2 0.3 1.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.10 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.78 2.5 2.7 2.75 2.77 2.78 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 79.00 80.25 80.31 79.94 79.92 80.03 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 55960.00 66956 61299 67564 63294 64621 MXN Million [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 127604.00 90962 91592 91749 80000 77000 [+]
Car Production 278.54 266 303 275 227 229 Thousand Units [+]
Car Registrations 127604.00 80000 84000 79000 80000 85000 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 2.10 2 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.1 percent [+]
Mining Production -10.45 -8.65 -8.77 -8.73 -1.8 1 percent [+]
Steel Production 1510.00 1572 1567 1580 1579 1578 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.43 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 51.00 57 51 51 51 50 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 47.00 38 38 38 38 34 [+]
Corruption Index 30.00 36 36 36 36 38 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 123.00 93 93 93 93 88 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 68.50 84 83 82 81 99 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -1.37 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.57 0.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 9.00 5 4.5 4 5 3 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 9854584.00 9576906 9627581 9904539 10184859 10940962 MXN Million [+]
Personal Savings 19.90 20.02 19.68 19.34 19 20.65 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 1151523.40 1260082 1304776 1356967 1401883 1879431 MXN Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 3834071348.00 3954937369 4077838098 4198968305 4317984896 5603526340 MXN Thousand [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 16.30 16.67 16.76 16.87 16.92 17.26 percent of GDP [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.77 0.8 0.79 0.79 0.77 0.7 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Construction Output 1.82 1.2 1 1.8 2 2.6 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 76.40 76.4 76.4 76.4 76.4 78 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 22 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 16.00 16 16 16 16 16 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Mexico including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Mexico economy. 2/27/2017