Mexico | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Mexico including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Mexico economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.19 4.21 4.32 4.4 4.2 5.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 5.82 6.5 7.1 7.4 6.5 4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 6.75 7 7.5 7.75 8 7 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 616.79 1500 100 -1200 -1000 -4000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 43.20 47 47 47 49 51 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 18.50 18.92 19.1 19.67 19.48 22.48 [+]
Stock Market 49410.92 48100 47600 46100 46600 38800 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 7.33 7.09 7.16 7.23 7.3 8.42 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.80 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.3 percent [+]
GDP 1143.79 987 987 987 1150 1250 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 14689634.00 15150000 15200000 15270000 14812713 16900000 MXN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3132090.00 3143463 3144531 3144110 3143252 3270000 MXN Million [+]
GDP per capita 9510.60 9720 9720 9720 9780 9900 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 16490.35 17300 17300 17300 117600 12300 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 430672.39 430000 350000 508000 434797 535000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Construction 1004357.00 1006500 1090000 1120000 1007954 1160000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2447004.00 2476389 2473533 2400000 2475208 2610000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Mining 845222.00 836880 826045 941000 806702 978000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 500518.67 519000 500000 535000 500745 564000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Services 9024909.32 9290000 9117554 9540000 9187130 10200000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Transport 866362.00 899000 874845 919000 876851 988000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 317433.00 315291 356907 348570 318109 346873 MXN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.19 4.21 4.32 4.4 4.2 5.5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 51859895.00 51750000 51800000 51900000 52868684 52500000 [+]
Unemployed Persons 1821825.00 2300000 2300000 2370000 1750436 23600000 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.35 59.77 59.89 59.87 59.85 59.85 percent [+]
Labour Costs 73.20 77 81 101 73.63 105 Index Points [+]
Productivity 110.20 109 109 112 109 117 Index Points [+]
Wages 329.73 333 331 332 330 377 MXN/Day [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 2.20 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.4 USD/Hour [+]
Minimum Wages 80.04 80.04 80.04 80.04 86.02 96.17 MXN/Day [+]
Population 122.27 124 124 124 125 128 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Living Wage Family 7912.50 8454 8461 8462 8462 8462 MXN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 4955.00 5061 5078 5087 5091 5095 MXN/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 4760.00 4875 4878 5200 4879 5800 MXN/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 15100.00 15600 15700 15700 15800 17400 MXN/Month [+]
Employment Rate 96.81 96.62 96.05 96.1 96.63 96 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 5.82 6.5 7.1 7.4 6.5 4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.12 -0.2 0.75 0.6 0.5 0.33 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 126.24 129 132 134 138 139 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 122.24 123 125 127 130 133 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 4.72 4.9 5 5.1 4.6 4 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 142.40 145 136 150 153 174 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 116.77 117 117 117 128 117 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 102.68 99 98 99 103 107 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 223.54 221 223 223 226 225 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 6.00 5 4.9 4.8 5.11 4.5 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 100.14 101 102 104 106 107 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 6.75 7 7.5 7.75 8 7 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 6.87 6.8 7.3 7.6 7.7 6.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 1378916.10 1400000 1430000 1450000 1382569 1590000 MXN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3784653603.00 3478090512 3760688885 3580426279 3760349092 3810154560 MXN Thousand [+]
Money Supply M2 12547749562.00 12755767294 12972638293 13189387065 13405692809 15759472118 MXN Thousand [+]
Money Supply M3 14989753159.00 15227555001 15473103588 15718417655 15962887786 18599768008 MXN Thousand [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 178704.00 178864 178874 173000 178808 193000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5482218.32 5635215 5734835 5834490 5933539 6978050 MXN Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2086129725.00 2149380309 2208815745 2266803594 2323828602 2885727378 MXN Thousand [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.59 1.02 1.02 1.02 2.03 2.29 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3811821962.00 3860634524 3909568700 3974380819 4039442956 4730213307 MXN Thousand [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 616.79 1500 100 -1200 -1000 -4000 USD Million [+]
Exports 31484.54 32000 30500 29700 29500 28000 USD Million [+]
Imports 30867.76 30500 30400 30900 30500 32000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -6859.20 -3900 -3100 -5500 -8600 -9500 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.70 -3 -3 -3 -3.1 -3.3 percent [+]
External Debt 412033.60 3370 3400 3400 96991 4020 MXN Billion [+]
Terms of Trade 45.93 46.22 46.13 46.15 46.14 46.15 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 7945.60 6300000 6000000 5250000 7347 6290000 USD Million [+]
Remittances 6639.60 7200 7165 7140 6922 7352 USD Million [+]
Tourism Revenues 2068125.71 2050000 1687380 2090000 1709434 2300000 USD Thousand [+]
Tourist Arrivals 2110.92 2500 1766 2870 1766 3360 Thousand [+]
Gold Reserves 120.46 121 120 122 120 120 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 2208.00 2100 2070 2050 2080 2100 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 3.72 3.99 3.69 3.99 4 4.1 [+]
Capital Flows 15409.60 8518 5962 5830 7504 6082 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 43.20 47 47 47 49 51 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.50 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.7 -3.9 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 340612.40 -132533 79672 -35600 7034 -18300 MXN Million [+]
Government Spending 1623290.00 1630000 1580626 164000 1584330 1740000 MXN Million [+]
Government Revenues 354028.80 385948 420042 420992 410142 413120 MXN Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 356533.90 527749 435015 658041 451561 796904 MXN Million [+]
Military Expenditure 8976.00 9281 9401 9521 9621 11149 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 46.70 46 48 49 50 53.5 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 50.70 51.9 51 50.8 51.4 51.8 [+]
Industrial Production 3.35 0.1 -0.2 0.5 1.1 1.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.00 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 8.53 6.75 6.61 6.62 6.63 6.64 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 82.30 81.81 81.41 81.44 81.65 81.56 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 23968.00 39762 43614 54197 47914 43628 MXN Million [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 89396.00 91616 90798 80000 90672 77000 [+]
Car Production 278.17 315 300 290 310 229 Thousand Units [+]
Car Registrations 89396.00 84000 79000 80000 93000 85000 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 4.41 1.9 1.8 2.1 3.65 2.1 percent [+]
Private Investment -3.10 -3.65 -3.9 -3.97 -3.99 -3.99 percent [+]
Mining Production -9.24 -9.95 -10.14 -1.8 -10.14 1 percent [+]
Steel Production 1830.00 1704 1704 1716 1716 1714 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.39 4.43 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 51.00 51 51 51 50 50 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 47.00 48 48 48 48 34 [+]
Corruption Index 30.00 36 36 36 37 38 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 123.00 93 93 93 90 88 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 84.29 73 72 71 70 99 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -1.30 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.31 0.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 6.10 4.5 4 5 2.9 3 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 10232252.02 9757647 9971143 10337068 9858918 10341747 MXN Million [+]
Personal Savings 20.60 20.66 21.25 21.84 21.77 21.1 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 1188926.50 1270671 1315016 1347814 1387824 1701412 MXN Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 3840060461.00 3982432493 4075997584 4167985176 4257903218 5122461052 MXN Thousand [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 16.50 16.79 16.9 16.96 17.02 17.27 percent of GDP [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.86 0.91 0.92 0.89 0.85 0.7 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Construction Output 3.79 1 1.8 2 1.9 2.6 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 76.40 76.4 76.4 76.4 76.09 78 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 26 22 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 38.01 38.04 35 40.56 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 16.00 16 16 16 16 16 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.26 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.58 7.58 7.57 7.58 7.58 7.59 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.65 1.65 1.64 1.64 1.65 1.64 percent [+]