Mexico | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.40 4.15 4.21 4.32 4.4 5.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.36 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 5.75 5.75 6.25 6.25 6.5 7 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 200.00 -1300 -1100 -2000 -2000 -4000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 43.20 47 47 47 47 51 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 21.40 21.13 21.34 21.55 21.76 24.86 [+]
Stock Market 46331.60 44400 43900 43500 43000 36200 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 7.64 7.78 7.86 7.94 7.67 9.16 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.00 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.3 percent [+]
GDP 1143.79 987 987 987 987 1250 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 14476283.00 14370000 15000000 15150000 15200000 16900000 MXN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3098922.00 3135888 3159769 3184693 3203199 3270000 MXN Million [+]
GDP per capita 9510.60 9720 9720 9720 9720 9900 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 16501.94 17300 17300 17300 17300 12300 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 378578.58 330000 430000 350000 508000 535000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Construction 1059896.00 992500 1006500 1090000 1120000 1160000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2425039.00 2402379 2430223 2425544 2400000 2610000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Mining 892833.00 884315 877050 873449 941000 978000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 496127.87 495000 519000 500000 535000 564000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Services 8904985.60 9290000 9290000 9077017 9540000 10200000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Transport 859638.00 899000 899000 873176 919000 988000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 358813.00 334895 329889 361806 359794 363599 MXN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.40 4.15 4.21 4.32 4.4 5.5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 52043100.00 51500000 51750000 51800000 51900000 52500000 [+]
Unemployed Persons 2183703.00 2350000 2300000 2300000 2370000 23600000 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.40 59.88 59.87 59.86 59.87 59.87 percent [+]
Labour Costs 70.50 78 77 81 101 105 Index Points [+]
Productivity 108.60 108 108 108 112 117 Index Points [+]
Wages 317.39 321 323 326 330 360 MXN/Day [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 2.00 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.7 2.4 USD/Hour [+]
Minimum Wages 80.04 80.04 80.04 80.04 80.04 90.17 MXN/Day [+]
Population 121.01 124 124 124 122 128 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Living Wage Family 11100.00 11197 11160 11174 11169 11170 MXN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 4890.00 5037 5003 5011 5009 5010 MXN/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 4760.00 4870 4875 4878 5200 5800 MXN/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 15100.00 15600 15600 15700 15700 17400 MXN/Month [+]
Employment Rate 96.63 96.16 96.25 96.05 96.1 96 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 3.36 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.46 0.75 0.77 0.75 0.6 0.37 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 122.52 122 123 124 124 129 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 119.39 120 121 122 123 126 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 3.44 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.5 4 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 136.05 139 141 136 144 160 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 114.55 115 116 117 118 129 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 98.10 98 99 98 99 107 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 219.68 220 221 223 223 225 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 4.52 5 5 4.9 4.8 4.5 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 98.09 98 99 100 102 107 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 5.75 5.75 6.25 6.25 6.5 7 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 5.84 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 1420268.60 1350000 1400000 1430000 1450000 1590000 MXN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3653397482.00 3467028776 3478090512 3928666485 3580426279 3810154560 MXN Thousand [+]
Money Supply M2 12298873677.00 12607698872 12834181708 13060817781 13287116305 15972566685 MXN Thousand [+]
Money Supply M3 14585856741.00 14929490410 15168770277 15407375102 15645089845 18432576807 MXN Thousand [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 175910.00 175242 174478 173886 173000 193000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5530272.00 5666423 5785840 5904779 6023140 7386261 MXN Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2056670965.00 1972110325 2023923861 2074806022 2124766749 2658217115 MXN Thousand [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.59 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 2.29 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3881189549.00 3904634039 3982275525 4057536079 4132226030 5002423506 MXN Thousand [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade 200.00 -1300 -1100 -2000 -2000 -4000 USD Million [+]
Exports 34465.40 31700 30500 29500 29400 28000 USD Million [+]
Imports 34265.01 33000 31600 31400 316000 32000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -7571.09 -8100 -8020 -8100 -8500 -9500 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.80 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3.3 percent [+]
External Debt 3509.44 3350 3370 3400 3400 4020 MXN Billion [+]
Terms of Trade 44.65 44.5 46.41 46.4 46.41 46.4 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 4314297.70 6500000 6300000 6000000 5250000 6290000 USD Thousand [+]
Remittances 2362.91 2290 2329 2352 2337 2334 USD Million [+]
Tourism Revenues 1585816.75 2050000 2050000 1498273 2090000 2300000 USD Thousand [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1713.58 2500 2500 1562 2870 3360 Thousand [+]
Gold Reserves 120.88 121 121 121 122 121 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 2148.00 2173 2172 2172 2172 2172 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 3.72 3.99 3.99 3.69 3.99 4.1 [+]
Capital Flows 1048.82 6765 6313 5962 5830 6082 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 43.20 47 47 47 47 51 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.50 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.9 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -56453.20 -27908 -40020 -35288 -35600 -18300 MXN Million [+]
Government Spending 1557456.00 1630000 1630000 1569004 164000 1740000 MXN Million [+]
Government Revenues 339957.00 367136 372867 374791 374422 374226 MXN Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 418519.70 407352 418673 419323 658041 796904 MXN Million [+]
Military Expenditure 8976.00 9281 9401 9521 9621 11149 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 51.80 51.8 51.6 52 51.8 53.5 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 50.20 49 48 49 50 51.8 [+]
Industrial Production 1.30 1 0.8 0.2 0.3 1.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.00 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 4.26 1.12 2.01 2.84 2.35 2.26 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 81.10 81.28 81.14 80.96 81.03 81.05 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 55960.00 66956 61299 67564 63294 64621 MXN Million [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 102695.00 90962 91592 91749 80000 77000 [+]
Car Production 242.50 266 303 275 227 229 Thousand Units [+]
Car Registrations 102695.00 80000 84000 79000 80000 85000 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 1.20 2 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.1 percent [+]
Mining Production -9.11 -7.52 -7.5 -7.49 -1.8 1 percent [+]
Steel Production 1635.00 1647 1643 1644 1644 1644 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.43 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 51.00 57 51 51 51 50 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 47.00 38 38 38 38 34 [+]
Corruption Index 35.00 36 36 36 36 38 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 95.00 93 93 93 93 88 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 85.70 84 83 82 81 99 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 1.60 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.68 0.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 9.30 5 4.5 4 5 3 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 9854584.00 9576906 9627581 9904539 10184859 10940962 MXN Million [+]
Personal Savings 19.90 20.02 19.68 19.34 19 20.65 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 1151523.40 1260082 1304776 1356967 1401883 1879431 MXN Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 3825501170.00 3805107114 3903835414 4000420511 4094932325 5082565983 MXN Thousand [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 16.30 16.67 16.76 16.87 16.92 17.26 percent of GDP [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.77 0.8 0.79 0.79 0.77 0.7 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Construction Output 3.55 1.2 1 1.8 2 2.6 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 76.40 76.4 76.4 76.4 76.4 78 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 22 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 16.00 16 16 16 16 16 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Mexico including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Mexico economy. 1/23/2017