Romania | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Romania including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Romania economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.70 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.30 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.61 0.8 1 1.4 1.8 2.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -1055.70 -906 -917 -910 -918 -916 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 37.60 36.89 36.71 36.54 36.3 35.03 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 4.06 4.31 4.36 4.48 4.44 5.12 [+]
Stock Market 8504.31 8040 7960 7720 7800 6500 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.80 4.01 4.05 4.09 4.13 4.76 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.70 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.70 5.2 5 4.8 4.4 3.2 percent [+]
GDP 177.95 184 184 189 182 211 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 37152.50 37709 37934 38150 38354 39976 RON Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 8153.60 8244 8083 8085 8069 8096 RON Million [+]
GDP per capita 9530.66 9546 9648 9750 9785 10077 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 20483.78 20514 20739 20964 21042 21685 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 2292.00 2616 2710 2713 2697 2701 RON Million [+]
GDP From Construction 2481.20 2493 2488 2496 2490 2501 RON Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 8076.40 8088 8097 8114 8127 8186 RON Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 1399.30 1381 1378 1381 1382 1381 RON Million [+]
GDP From Services 9815.60 9842 9845 9775 9820 9805 RON Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.30 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 percent [+]
Employed Persons 4794.20 4789 4780 4781 4784 4783 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 399.00 383 386 386 386 386 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.60 2.74 2.73 2.67 2.67 2.63 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 20.40 20.42 20.42 20.42 20.42 20.42 percent [+]
Labour Costs 87.50 109 91.5 88.21 110 90.53 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 1.31 1.28 1.3 1.28 1.3 1.28 percent [+]
Wages 3256.00 3289 3371 3453 3528 4310 RON/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 2958.00 2817 2792 2804 2810 2809 RON/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 275.39 276 286 250 295 300 EUR/Month [+]
Population 19.76 19.82 19.8 19.78 19.78 19.51 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.30 60.4 60.47 60.53 60.6 61.32 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 64.87 64.42 [+]
Employment Rate 61.60 61.87 63.11 61.62 60.24 61.62 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 7601.90 7602 7711 7609 7480 7614 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 53.20 53.5 54.36 52.93 51.9 52.88 percent [+]
Productivity 156.80 133 133 133 133 133 Index Points [+]
Part Time Employment 542.10 574 577 543 540 552 Thousand [+]
Living Wage Family 2404.80 2391 2384 2387 2386 2386 RON/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1997.20 1861 1857 1856 1856 1856 RON/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 2520.00 2448 2448 2448 2448 2448 RON/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 0.61 0.8 1 1.4 1.8 2.8 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.46 100 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 99.70 99.68 99.67 99.66 99.65 99.54 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate -0.20 -0.26 -0.4 -0.55 -0.69 -2.07 percent [+]
Producer Prices 114.00 117 119 121 123 140 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.90 4.2 5.1 3.9 2.8 2 percent [+]
Food Inflation 2.20 2.61 2.61 2.57 2.57 2.57 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 101.48 100 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30 0.1 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 99.46 99.57 99.63 99.7 99.77 100 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.67 0.68 0.64 0.64 0.65 0.65 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 55728.00 57442 59099 60743 62370 79237 RON Million [+]
Money Supply M1 181048.60 189348 195589 201696 207407 251072 RON Million [+]
Money Supply M2 315022.10 322274 329086 335789 342451 411844 RON Million [+]
Money Supply M3 315143.20 322418 329230 335931 342594 412086 RON Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 39821.20 39890 40008 40008 40007 40005 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 428413.94 431015 434042 437062 439982 465364 RON Million [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 190646.37 190908 190831 190826 190811 190807 RON Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 percent [+]
Lending Rate 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -1055.70 -906 -917 -910 -918 -916 EUR Million [+]
Exports 5711.00 4973 5118 5010 5251 4990 EUR Million [+]
Imports 6766.70 5939 6209 6109 6141 6134 EUR Million [+]
Current Account -767.00 -313 -377 -59.47 -371 -287 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -1.00 -1.7 -1.18 -1.24 -1.34 -1.37 percent [+]
External Debt 93191.80 93547 93906 94238 94543 96627 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 833.00 752 899 794 749 779 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 103.70 104 104 104 104 104 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 75.00 75.05 75.05 75.05 75.05 75.05 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 340.80 328 329 329 329 329 EUR Million [+]
Terrorism Index 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 [+]
Weapons Sales 2.00 20.87 -0.21 -21.3 -12.54 15.89 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 37.60 36.89 36.71 36.54 36.3 35.03 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.00 -2.5 -3.8 -2.3 -4.72 -0.2 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -5250.30 -9143 -9049 -8753 -8796 -8806 RON Million [+]
Government Spending 1651.30 1658 1635 1647 1639 1643 RON Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 34.70 36.32 36.15 35.97 36.11 37.68 percent [+]
Government Revenues 25591.90 65436 58097 49542 54691 54024 RON Million [+]
Government Debt 270865.80 272811 274957 281349 282659 309267 RON Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 30842.20 74400 65795 58204 63049 62256 RON Million [+]
Asylum Applications 90.00 141 142 142 142 142 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 2980.30 3043 3175 3307 3392 4706 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Industrial Production 8.20 8.1 8.09 8.08 8.08 8.08 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 2.60 0.65 0.42 0.39 0.39 0.39 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 10.40 9.02 8.73 8.77 8.81 8.81 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 75.60 78.22 75.87 76.47 77 78.73 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 7419.40 7385 3830 7351 3864 7162 RON Million [+]
Car Registrations 152222.00 141022 144131 131930 144042 141034 Cars [+]
Business Confidence 0.10 0.07 0 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.30 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.19 4.32 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 62.00 55 55 55 65 65 [+]
Ease Of Doing Business 36.00 36.01 35.81 35.6 35.68 35.88 [+]
Electricity Production 5454.00 5097 5544 5575 5380 5434 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 48.00 48 48 48 48 50 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 57.00 55 54 52 51 48 [+]
Mining Production -4.10 -4.48 -4.28 -4.25 -4.27 -4.27 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Retail Sales MoM 1.00 0.7 0.78 0.6 0.84 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 7.70 8.9 6.84 4.1 6.72 2.9 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 34018.40 34528 34734 34891 35025 35876 RON Million [+]
Consumer Credit 35941.06 36250 36767 37126 37411 38381 RON Million [+]
Consumer Confidence -13.40 -13.38 -13.44 -13.45 -13.45 -13.45 [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.16 1.16 1.18 1.17 1.17 1.17 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Construction Output -1.00 -4.58 -4.3 -4.52 -4.53 -4.53 percent [+]
Housing Index 90.09 93.23 93.11 94.32 95.66 100 Index Points [+]
Building Permits 3489.00 4256 3273 2813 3342 3258 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 96.40 96.74 96.89 97.03 97.09 95.71 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 16.00 16 16 16 16 16 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 16.00 16 16 16 16 16 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 19.00 20 19.95 19 18.29 19 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 39.95 39.48 40.22 40.95 40.92 40.83 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.45 23 23.66 24.32 24.29 24.21 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 16.50 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 percent [+]