Sri Lanka | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.10 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.7 6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.50 4.5 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 6.80 7.1 7.5 6.9 6.7 7.16 percent [+]
Interest Rate 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -910.00 -620 -620 -912 -824 -650 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 76.00 78 78 78 78 69 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 151.50 153 154 156 159 181 [+]
Stock Market 5996.28 6060 6000 5940 5820 4900 points [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.10 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.7 6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.30 4.2 5.8 4.5 4.1 5.2 percent [+]
GDP 82.32 83.92 84.7 85.48 86.26 94.61 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 2526738.00 2375537 2358932 2357108 2356908 2356883 LKR Million [+]
Gross National Product 11506217.00 11597805 11904400 12210995 12517590 15392655 LKR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2929107.00 2870280 2920614 2970948 3021282 3436356 LKR Million [+]
GDP per capita 3637.54 3694 3737 3781 3825 4429 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 11047.67 11219 11353 11487 11621 13469 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 162824.00 156768 153900 156019 157801 153306 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 200970.00 175832 161665 174753 199615 221089 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 329307.00 349654 333682 346220 336378 340469 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Mining 62337.00 58575 57456 63298 64746 66165 LKR Million [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 197655.00 213643 180894 198287 197618 208060 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Services 1337672.00 1254407 1348008 1369362 1388499 1537034 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 259755.00 221159 203418 229524 232410 266917 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 23918.00 24434 24781 25240 25563 29418 LKR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.50 4.5 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 7999821.00 8288884 8155573 8217657 8352041 8639565 [+]
Unemployed Persons 376180.00 361330 360655 359377 358649 356720 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 53.80 53.82 53.69 53.72 53.71 53.73 percent [+]
Wages 8839.35 8646 9016 9386 9756 11566 LKR/Month [+]
Population 21.20 21.15 21.21 21.27 21.34 21.76 Million [+]
Employment Rate 95.50 95.5 95.6 95.6 95.64 95.67 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 55614.20 53395 55131 53773 54836 54394 LKR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 30889.70 29974 30061 30053 30053 30053 LKR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 51400.00 50173 50172 50172 50172 50172 LKR/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 25000.00 25000 25000 25000 25000 25000 LKR/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 21.60 20 19.99 19.99 19.99 19.99 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 6.80 7.1 7.5 6.9 6.7 7.16 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 116.70 117 118 119 120 134 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 121.60 122 123 124 126 141 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 7.10 7.05 6.95 6.96 6.96 6.96 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 131.40 132 133 133 134 131 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 116.20 114 114 114 114 114 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 98.60 120 126 119 114 119 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 114.84 116 116 116 116 116 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 95.90 95.94 95.99 95.99 95.99 95.99 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 7.70 8.76 7.83 6.19 5.75 6.04 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50 0.34 0.59 0.48 0.52 0.51 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 8.40 5.78 6.38 6.27 6.31 6.3 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 6 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 11.18 10.87 11.12 11.14 11.14 11.14 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 524215.00 552459 565982 579503 592986 750788 LKR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 776600.00 788480 805170 824115 843721 1070532 LKR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 4823600.00 4959607 5095227 5230460 5365309 6953854 LKR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 835049.20 821734 821158 821075 821070 821070 LKR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 6395680.60 6777960 6994919 7209623 7423074 9915211 LKR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.00 6.36 6.39 6.41 6.43 7.51 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 7.50 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1455448.20 1464173 1467602 1466181 1466427 1466331 LKR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -910.00 -620 -620 -912 -824 -650 USD Million [+]
Exports 888.80 859 864 863 863 863 USD Million [+]
Imports 1798.40 1816 1786 1781 1784 1785 USD Million [+]
Current Account -241.00 -382 -568 -470 -551 -527 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.40 -2 -2 -2.89 -2.3 -3.5 percent [+]
External Debt 47302.10 48316 48466 49008 49490 55545 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 85.86 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Tourist Arrivals 197517.00 7.3 12 7 184506 183720 [+]
Gold Reserves 22.27 22.23 22.23 22.27 22.27 22.27 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 103.00 103 103 114 220 170 USD Million [+]
Remittances 567.38 648 648 581 689 748 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 3.49 4.16 3.98 3.81 3.64 6.01 [+]
Tourism Revenues 277.15 269 281 275 278 277 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 76.00 78 78 78 78 69 percent [+]
Government Budget -7.40 -5.2 -5.2 -5.2 -5.2 -3.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -829502.00 -727995 -804762 -881528 -958294 -1320621 LKR Million [+]
Government Spending 985815.00 917592 949989 982385 1014782 1029687 LKR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 2290394.00 2439697 2618054 2687487 2756919 3692898 LKR Million [+]
Government Debt 9401969.00 10011819 10312177 10609531 10903912 14215054 LKR Million [+]
Government Revenues 1460892.00 1509184 1590198 1621688 1653178 2090496 LKR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 1860.90 1929 1888 1847 1844 1833 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Industrial Production 8.20 4.5 5.7 5.55 5.46 5.35 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 81.00 78.06 75.03 72.01 68.99 79.96 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 432440.00 559228 564516 569804 575092 550154 LKR Million [+]
Car Registrations 3512.00 3931 3866 3898 3906 3900 Cars [+]
Business Confidence 102.00 91.57 81.56 86.15 87.93 48.52 [+]
Corruption Index 36.00 37 37 37 37 36 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 95.00 86.19 83.49 80.79 78.1 72.42 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.19 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 71.00 75.04 75.04 69.59 67.78 68.59 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 110.00 103 103 104 104 99.54 [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 57.10 57.12 56.71 56.54 56.47 56.42 [+]
Services Pmi 57.30 57.88 57.5 57.5 57.51 57.51 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Spending 7666365.00 7295628 7441622 7587616 7733610 8315164 LKR Million [+]
Personal Savings 22.60 23.71 22.69 21.66 20.63 22.12 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 4181579.00 4300538 4429529 4561613 4694351 6244038 LKR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 11.49 8.3 8.3 11.48 8.5 9.5 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Housing Index 3411.00 3517 3562 3793 3604 3646 [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 11.00 15 15 11 15 15 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00 8 8 8 8 8 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Sri Lanka including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Sri Lanka economy. 3/26/2017