Sri Lanka | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.10 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.7 6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.50 4.3 4.4 4.7 4.3 4.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 4.10 6.3 3.7 5.4 4.5 4.25 percent [+]
Interest Rate 7.00 6.5 6.5 6 6 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -922.00 -620 -620 -846 -824 -650 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 76.00 78 78 78 78 69 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 149.85 153 154 156 157 180 [+]
Stock Market 6201.65 6100 6040 5980 5920 4980 points [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.10 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.7 6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.10 4.9 5.2 5.3 4.6 5.2 percent [+]
GDP 82.32 83.92 84.7 85.48 86.26 94.61 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 2270171.00 2205427 2205262 2205253 2205253 2205253 LKR Million [+]
Gross National Product 10408629.00 10100000 10400000 10600000 10900000 15400000 LKR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2929107.00 2870280 2920614 2970948 3021282 3436356 LKR Million [+]
GDP per capita 3637.54 3694 3737 3781 3825 4429 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 11047.67 11219 11353 11487 11621 13469 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 161844.00 162783 159092 160039 171414 167857 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 157734.00 165114 156464 164786 172177 184847 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 372665.00 371440 297152 370254 298319 304585 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Mining 57222.00 53264 52158 57707 54901 56565 LKR Million [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 197655.00 213643 180894 198287 197618 208060 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Services 1311777.00 1249956 1343996 1364057 1364656 1501626 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 259755.00 221159 203418 229524 232410 266917 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 23918.00 24434 24781 25240 25563 29418 LKR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.50 4.3 4.4 4.7 4.3 4.6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 7999821.00 8288884 8155573 8217657 8352041 8639565 [+]
Unemployed Persons 376180.00 361330 360655 359377 358649 356720 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 53.80 53.82 53.69 53.72 53.71 53.73 percent [+]
Wages 8839.35 8646 9016 9386 9756 11566 LKR/Month [+]
Population 20.96 20.99 21.01 21.03 21.06 21.54 Million [+]
Employment Rate 95.40 95.26 94.96 95.16 95 95.05 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 97900.00 89750 89750 89750 89750 89750 LKR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 30900.00 28400 28400 28400 28400 28400 LKR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 51400.00 50173 50172 50172 50172 50172 LKR/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 25000.00 25000 25000 25000 25000 25000 LKR/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 21.60 20 19.99 19.99 19.99 19.99 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 4.10 6.3 3.7 5.4 4.5 4.25 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 192.80 194 195 197 198 214 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 192.00 193 195 197 199 223 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 5.10 4.94 4.91 4.93 4.92 4.92 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 129.70 137 137 137 137 139 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 107.50 107 107 107 107 107 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 123.92 121 126 124 122 123 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 125.55 121 121 121 121 121 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 189.70 190 190 190 190 190 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 3.80 5.34 5.85 5.81 5.71 5.69 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.00 0.43 0.61 0.55 0.57 0.56 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.60 0.85 0.96 0.93 0.94 0.93 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 7.00 6.5 6.5 6 6 6 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 11.00 10.99 10.99 10.99 10.99 10.99 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 521642.00 552384 565895 579406 592878 750555 LKR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 727600.00 769622 794372 819771 845856 1224659 LKR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 4616800.00 4795073 4968721 5149480 5337123 8223111 LKR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 947201.40 963553 963772 963804 963810 963811 LKR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 6189370.00 6633433 6820586 7006911 7192416 9356258 LKR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.00 6.36 6.39 6.41 6.43 7.51 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 7.50 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1657974.50 1678031 1677963 1678002 1677989 1677992 LKR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -922.00 -620 -620 -846 -824 -650 USD Million [+]
Exports 810.00 871 873 874 874 873 USD Million [+]
Imports 1732.00 1777 1762 1752 1752 1754 USD Million [+]
Current Account -241.00 -382 -568 -470 -551 -527 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.40 -2 -2 -2.89 -2.3 -3.5 percent [+]
External Debt 4069700.00 4298355 4387502 4475506 4563020 5584049 LKR Million [+]
Terms of Trade 98.70 101 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Tourist Arrivals 224791.00 7.3 12 7 181276 180471 [+]
Gold Reserves 22.27 22.2 22.2 22.24 22.25 22.25 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 103.00 103 103 114 220 170 USD Million [+]
Remittances 567.38 648 648 581 689 748 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 3.49 4.16 3.98 3.81 3.64 6.01 [+]
Tourism Revenues 277.15 269 281 275 278 277 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 76.00 78 78 78 78 69 percent [+]
Government Budget -7.40 -7.8 -7.8 -7.66 -7.8 -6.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -829502.00 -727995 -804762 -881528 -958294 -1320621 LKR Million [+]
Government Spending 985815.00 917592 949989 982385 1014782 1029687 LKR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 2290394.00 2439697 2618054 2687487 2756919 3692898 LKR Million [+]
Government Debt 9401969.00 10011819 10312177 10609531 10903912 14215054 LKR Million [+]
Government Revenues 1460892.00 1509184 1590198 1621688 1653178 2090496 LKR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 1860.90 1929 1888 1847 1844 1833 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Industrial Production -5.70 4.5 5.7 1.36 -1.5 -2.98 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 81.00 78.06 75.03 72.01 68.99 79.96 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 432440.00 559228 564516 569804 575092 550154 LKR Million [+]
Car Registrations 3346.00 3463 3420 3424 3431 3427 Cars [+]
Business Confidence 102.00 102 102 102 102 102 [+]
Corruption Index 37.00 36.71 36.6 36.49 36.39 35.28 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 83.00 86.19 83.49 80.79 78.1 72.42 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.19 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 71.00 75.04 75.04 69.59 67.78 68.59 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 110.00 103 103 104 104 99.54 [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 58.40 52 57.37 56.92 56.7 56.49 [+]
Services Pmi 59.70 58.07 58.75 59.16 59.27 59.07 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Spending 7666365.00 7295628 7441622 7587616 7733610 8315164 LKR Million [+]
Personal Savings 22.60 23.71 22.69 21.66 20.63 22.12 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 3945031.00 4175797 4294345 4412874 4531001 5903253 LKR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 11.82 8.3 8.3 12.06 8.5 9.5 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Housing Index 3411.00 3517 3562 3793 3604 3646 [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 11.00 15 15 11 15 15 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00 8 8 8 8 8 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Sri Lanka including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Sri Lanka economy. 1/16/2017