Sri Lanka | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.10 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.7 6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.50 4.3 4.4 4.7 4.3 4.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 5.60 6.3 3.7 5.4 4.5 5.85 percent [+]
Interest Rate 7.00 6.5 6.5 6 6 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -957.00 -620 -620 -930 -824 -650 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 76.00 78 78 78 78 69 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 150.93 153 154 156 157 180 [+]
Stock Market 6139.51 6100 6040 5980 5920 4980 points [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.10 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.7 6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.10 4.9 5.2 5.3 4.6 5.2 percent [+]
GDP 82.32 83.92 84.7 85.48 86.26 94.61 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 2270171.00 2205427 2205262 2205253 2205253 2205253 LKR Million [+]
Gross National Product 10408629.00 10100000 10400000 10600000 10900000 15400000 LKR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2929107.00 2870280 2920614 2970948 3021282 3436356 LKR Million [+]
GDP per capita 3637.54 3694 3737 3781 3825 4429 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 11047.67 11219 11353 11487 11621 13469 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 161844.00 162783 159092 160039 171414 167857 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 157734.00 165114 156464 164786 172177 184847 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 372665.00 371440 297152 370254 298319 304585 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Mining 57222.00 53264 52158 57707 54901 56565 LKR Million [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 197655.00 213643 180894 198287 197618 208060 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Services 1311777.00 1249956 1343996 1364057 1364656 1501626 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 259755.00 221159 203418 229524 232410 266917 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 23918.00 24434 24781 25240 25563 29418 LKR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.50 4.3 4.4 4.7 4.3 4.6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 7999821.00 8288884 8155573 8217657 8352041 8639565 [+]
Unemployed Persons 376180.00 361330 360655 359377 358649 356720 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 53.80 53.82 53.69 53.72 53.71 53.73 percent [+]
Wages 8839.35 8646 9016 9386 9756 11566 LKR/Month [+]
Population 21.20 21.15 21.21 21.27 21.34 21.76 Million [+]
Employment Rate 95.50 95.5 95.6 95.6 95.64 95.67 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 97900.00 89750 89750 89750 89750 89750 LKR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 30900.00 28400 28400 28400 28400 28400 LKR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 51400.00 50173 50172 50172 50172 50172 LKR/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 25000.00 25000 25000 25000 25000 25000 LKR/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 21.60 20 19.99 19.99 19.99 19.99 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 5.60 6.3 3.7 5.4 4.5 5.85 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 116.10 117 118 119 120 132 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 121.30 122 123 124 126 141 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 7.00 6.89 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 129.70 137 137 137 137 139 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 116.20 114 114 114 114 114 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 124.29 127 130 127 126 128 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 110.16 115 115 115 115 115 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 95.10 95.12 95.15 95.15 95.15 95.15 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 4.50 5.21 6.09 6.23 6.1 6.03 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.20 0.31 0.6 0.47 0.52 0.51 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 8.40 5.78 6.38 6.27 6.31 6.3 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 7.00 6.5 6.5 6 6 6 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 10.92 10.83 10.8 10.79 10.8 10.8 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 521642.00 552384 565895 579406 592878 750555 LKR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 776600.00 788480 805170 824115 843721 1070532 LKR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 4823600.00 4959607 5095227 5230460 5365309 6953854 LKR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 890601.40 892214 891374 891345 891327 891326 LKR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 6395680.60 6777960 6994919 7209623 7423074 9915211 LKR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.00 6.36 6.39 6.41 6.43 7.51 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 7.50 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1455448.20 1464173 1467602 1466181 1466427 1466331 LKR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -957.00 -620 -620 -930 -824 -650 USD Million [+]
Exports 859.00 845 844 846 846 846 USD Million [+]
Imports 1816.00 1836 1809 1802 1804 1805 USD Million [+]
Current Account -241.00 -382 -568 -470 -551 -527 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.40 -2 -2 -2.89 -2.3 -3.5 percent [+]
External Debt 47302.10 48316 48466 49008 49490 55545 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 112.82 105 105 105 105 105 Index Points [+]
Tourist Arrivals 219360.00 7.3 12 7 183662 182813 [+]
Gold Reserves 22.27 22.23 22.23 22.27 22.27 22.27 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 103.00 103 103 114 220 170 USD Million [+]
Remittances 567.38 648 648 581 689 748 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 3.49 4.16 3.98 3.81 3.64 6.01 [+]
Tourism Revenues 277.15 269 281 275 278 277 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 76.00 78 78 78 78 69 percent [+]
Government Budget -7.40 -7.8 -7.8 -7.66 -7.8 -6.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -829502.00 -727995 -804762 -881528 -958294 -1320621 LKR Million [+]
Government Spending 985815.00 917592 949989 982385 1014782 1029687 LKR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 2290394.00 2439697 2618054 2687487 2756919 3692898 LKR Million [+]
Government Debt 9401969.00 10011819 10312177 10609531 10903912 14215054 LKR Million [+]
Government Revenues 1460892.00 1509184 1590198 1621688 1653178 2090496 LKR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 1860.90 1929 1888 1847 1844 1833 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Industrial Production -5.70 4.5 5.7 1.36 -1.5 -2.98 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 81.00 78.06 75.03 72.01 68.99 79.96 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 432440.00 559228 564516 569804 575092 550154 LKR Million [+]
Car Registrations 3346.00 3463 3420 3424 3431 3427 Cars [+]
Business Confidence 102.00 91.57 81.56 86.15 87.93 48.52 [+]
Corruption Index 36.00 37 37 37 37 36 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 95.00 86.19 83.49 80.79 78.1 72.42 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.19 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 71.00 75.04 75.04 69.59 67.78 68.59 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 110.00 103 103 104 104 99.54 [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 56.20 57.26 56.85 56.68 56.61 56.56 [+]
Services Pmi 57.50 58.47 58.26 58.32 58.31 58.33 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Spending 7666365.00 7295628 7441622 7587616 7733610 8315164 LKR Million [+]
Personal Savings 22.60 23.71 22.69 21.66 20.63 22.12 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 4100989.00 4243213 4375252 4504523 4632405 6112892 LKR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 11.52 8.3 8.3 11.51 8.5 9.5 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Housing Index 3411.00 3517 3562 3793 3604 3646 [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 11.00 15 15 11 15 15 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00 8 8 8 8 8 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Sri Lanka including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Sri Lanka economy. 2/21/2017