Sri Lanka | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Sri Lanka including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Sri Lanka economy.

Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 5.30 5.2 5.3 5.7 4.73 6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.20 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.3 4.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 7.30 7.5 6.9 6.7 6.2 7.66 percent [+]
Interest Rate 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -773.00 -620 -868 -824 -866 -650 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 76.00 78 78 78 76.32 69 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 152.00 153 155 159 158 182 [+]
Stock Market 6505.95 6020 5960 5780 5840 4860 points [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 5.30 5.2 5.3 5.7 4.73 6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.30 5.8 4.5 4.1 5.3 5.2 percent [+]
GDP 82.32 84.7 85.48 86.26 86.98 94.61 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 2526738.00 2358932 2357108 2356908 2356886 2356883 LKR Million [+]
Gross National Product 11506217.00 11904400 12210995 12517590 12765882 15392655 LKR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3263242.60 3502079 3611420 3720760 3798944 4297090 LKR Million [+]
GDP per capita 3637.54 3708 3741 3773 3806 4292 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 11047.67 11260 11358 11455 11555 13010 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 162824.00 153900 156019 157801 153376 153306 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 200970.00 161665 174753 199615 188140 221089 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 329307.00 333682 346220 336378 344104 340469 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Mining 62337.00 57456 63298 64746 62204 66165 LKR Million [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 229336.00 199175 196091 228748 192703 222277 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Services 1337672.00 1348008 1369362 1388499 1325056 1537034 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 282674.00 217003 261310 273198 234254 257151 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 23258.00 24183 24683 24847 25222 28043 LKR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.20 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.3 4.6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 8006700.00 7944537 7967828 7978541 7974882 7970616 [+]
Unemployed Persons 348141.00 348924 346798 344583 343785 340960 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 54.00 53.86 53.85 53.88 53.91 53.89 percent [+]
Wages 8839.35 9016 9386 9756 10026 11566 LKR/Month [+]
Population 21.20 21.21 21.27 21.34 21.37 21.76 Million [+]
Employment Rate 95.50 95.6 95.6 95.64 95.63 95.67 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 55614.20 55131 53773 54836 54004 54394 LKR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 30889.70 30061 30053 30053 30053 30053 LKR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 51400.00 50172 50172 50172 50172 50172 LKR/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 25000.00 25000 25000 25000 25000 25000 LKR/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 21.00 21.44 22 21.66 22.22 21.76 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 7.30 7.5 6.9 6.7 6.2 7.66 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 116.50 117 119 120 121 132 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 121.80 123 124 126 127 141 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 7.30 7.19 7.19 7.19 7.19 7.19 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 131.40 133 133 134 134 131 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 117.80 117 116 116 116 116 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 98.60 126 119 114 120 119 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 114.84 116 116 116 116 116 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 95.90 95.95 95.95 95.95 95.95 95.95 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 9.20 8.31 6.38 5.84 6.01 6.17 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.20 0.74 0.4 0.52 0.48 0.49 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 13.60 11.88 11.11 11.77 11.6 11.57 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7 6 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 11.27 11.41 11.46 11.47 11.47 11.47 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 524215.00 565982 579503 592986 606415 750788 LKR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 742900.00 779355 791538 804541 817446 931637 LKR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 4866000.00 5367726 5577782 5807454 6033728 8460857 LKR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 901651.00 894542 894508 894527 894527 894527 LKR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 6395680.60 6994919 7209623 7423074 7635548 9915211 LKR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.00 6.39 6.41 6.43 6.65 7.51 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 7.50 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1455448.20 1467602 1466181 1466427 1466313 1466331 LKR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -773.00 -620 -868 -824 -866 -650 USD Million [+]
Exports 897.00 879 880 880 880 880 USD Million [+]
Imports 1670.00 1751 1738 1741 1743 1743 USD Million [+]
Current Account -1172.00 -896 -475 -709 -519 -597 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.40 -2 -2.89 -2.3 -3.19 -3.5 percent [+]
External Debt 46585.70 47669 48211 48752 49293 55231 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 85.86 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Tourist Arrivals 188076.00 12 7 188527 188097 188201 [+]
Gold Reserves 22.27 22.23 22.27 22.27 22.28 22.27 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 636.00 241 241 241 241 241 USD Million [+]
Remittances 567.38 648 581 689 583 748 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 3.49 3.98 3.81 3.64 3.8 6.01 [+]
Tourism Revenues 277.15 281 275 278 277 277 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 76.00 78 78 78 76.32 69 percent [+]
Government Budget -7.40 -5.2 -5.2 -5.2 -4.6 -3.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -829502.00 -804762 -881528 -958294 -983283 -1320621 LKR Million [+]
Government Spending 1015106.70 1023096 1027210 1031324 1032363 1030216 LKR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 2290394.00 2261340 2439697 2618054 2687487 3692898 LKR Million [+]
Government Debt 9401969.00 10312177 10609531 10903912 11195348 14215054 LKR Million [+]
Government Revenues 1460892.00 1428170 1509184 1590198 1621688 2090496 LKR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 1860.90 1929 1888 1847 1844 1833 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Industrial Production 3.60 5.7 5.04 5.21 5.31 5.44 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 81.00 75.03 72.01 68.99 72 79.96 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 373245.00 624273 749934 875595 778360 488213 LKR Million [+]
Car Registrations 3512.00 3866 3898 3906 3900 3900 Cars [+]
Business Confidence 102.00 81.56 86.15 87.93 80.56 48.52 [+]
Corruption Index 36.00 37 37 37 37 36 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 95.00 95 102 108 106 113 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.19 4.26 4.26 4.26 4.11 4.14 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 71.00 69 69 69 69 68 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 110.00 94 89 84 83 103 [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 66.50 63.86 62.12 61.6 61.56 61.6 [+]
Services Pmi 60.80 59.5 59.12 59.12 59.21 59.21 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Spending 8003788.60 8301916 8379723 8457531 8550907 9487255 LKR Million [+]
Personal Savings 22.60 22.69 21.66 20.63 20.78 22.12 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 4203543.00 4438142 4572022 4706185 4840009 6270336 LKR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 11.70 8.3 11.67 8.5 11.67 9.5 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 3411.00 3562 3793 3604 3586 3646 [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00 22.21 20.47 18.72 18.56 20.57 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 21 19.19 17.38 17.85 22.63 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 11.00 15 11 15 11 15 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 20.00 22.8 24.1 25.41 24.52 22.85 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.00 14.8 16.1 17.41 16.52 14.85 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00 8 8 8 8 8 percent [+]