Thursday March 16 2017
Turkey Holds Rates Steady In March
Central Bank of Turkey | Yekaterina Guchshina | yekaterina@tradingeconomics.com

The Central Bank of Turkey held its benchmark one-week repo rate at 8 percent on March 16th, as widely expected. Also, the lending rate was kept unchanged at 9.25 percent while market expected 50 bps hike. Policymakers said that the recently released data indicated a gradual recovery in the economic activity while the significant rise in inflation is expected to continue in the short term due to lagged pass-through and the base effect in food prices.

The central bank kept its overnight borrowing rate at 7.25 percent and increased the rate at its late liquidity window to 11.75 percent from 11 percent.

Statement by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey:

Recently released data indicate a gradual recovery in the economic activity. Demand from the European Union economies continues to contribute positively to exports, while domestic demand displays a weaker course. With the supportive measures and incentives provided recently, the recovery in the economic activity is expected to continue at a moderate pace. The Committee assesses that the implementation of the structural reforms would contribute to the potential growth significantly.

Cost push pressures and the volatility in food prices in recent months have led to a sharp increase in inflation. The significant rise in inflation is expected to continue in the short term due to lagged pass-through and the base effect in food prices. Accordingly, the Committee decided to strengthen the monetary tightening in order to contain the deterioration in the inflation outlook.  

The Central Bank will continue to use all available instruments in pursuit of the price stability objective. Tight stance in monetary policy will be maintained until inflation outlook displays a significant improvement. Inflation expectations, pricing behavior and other factors affecting inflation will be closely monitored and, if needed, further monetary tightening will be delivered.

It should be emphasized that any new data or information may lead the Committee to revise its stance.

The summary of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting will be released within five working days.






Wednesday March 15 2017
Turkish Jobless Rate Rises To 12.7% In December
Turkstat | Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

The unemployment rate in Turkey increased to 12.7 percent in December of 2016, up from 10.8 percent a year earlier. It was the highest jobless rate since March 2010 as non-farm unemployment rose to 14.9 percent (2.2 percentage point increase) and the jobless rate among those aged 15 to 24 went up by 4.8 percentage points to 24 percent.

The number of unemployed persons went up by 668 thousand to 3,872 thousand while employment increased by 221 thousand to 26,669 thousand
 
The non-agricultural sector added 307 thousand jobs while the farm sector lost 88 thousand: employment decreased in agriculture (by 0.6 percentage point), industry (by 0.5 percentage point), and construction (by 0.2 percent) but rose in services (by 1 percentage point).
 
According to the distribution of employment by sector; 18.4 percent was employed in agriculture, 19.7 percent in industry, 6.9 percent  in construction, and 54.9 percent was in services.
 
In addition, the number of people in the labour force rose by 888 thousand to 30,540 thousand and those detached from the labour force decreased by 36 thousand to 28,606 thousand. The participation rate rose 0.7 percentage points from a year earlier to 51.6 percent.
 
On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment went up by 49 thousand persons and reached 3 .717 million while employment increased by 36 thousand and reached 27.301 millionpersons in December compared with the previous month.
 
 




Friday March 03 2017
Turkish Consumer Prices Rise The Most In Nearly 5 Years
Statistics of Turkey l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Consumer prices in Turkey increased by 10.13 percent year-on-year in February of 2017, following a 9.22 percent rise in the previous month and beating market expectations of a 9.6 percent gain. It was the highest inflation since April 2012, as cost of food, transport and housing went up at a faster pace.

Year-on-year, prices rose at a faster pace for: Food and non-alcoholic beverages (8.72 percent from 7.77 percent in January); Transportation (17.96 percent from 15.61 percent); Housing and utilities (7.42 percent from 6.54 percent).

Additional upward pressure came from: hotels, cafes and restaurants (8.66 percent from 8.58 percent); furnishing, household equipment, routine maintenance of the house (4.93 percent from 6.16 percent); and clothing and footwear (6.77 percent from 3.66 percent). 
 
On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.81 percent, compared to a 2.46 percent rise a month earlier and above market expectations of a 0.47 percent rise.





Tuesday February 28 2017
Turkish Trade Deficit Widens in January
Turkish Statistical Institute l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Turkey's trade deficit increased to $4.31 billion in January of 2017, compared to a $3.91 billion gap a year earlier. Exports increased by 18.1 percent to $11.28 billion, mainly driven by mining and quarrying, fisheries sales, manufacturing, and agriculture. Imports rose 15.90 percent to $15.59 billion, led by mining and quarrying and manufacturing.

Year-on-year, exports rose to $11.28 billion, mainly bosted by a 17.8  percent rise in sales of manufactured products which accounted for 93.2 percent of total sales. Among manufacturing, medium-low-technology products accounted for 25.5 percent and increased 35.87 percent; high-technology products accounted for 3.2 percent and fell 2.4 percent; while medium-high-technology products represented 32.8 percent and rose 20.86 percent. In addition shipments of agriculture, hunting and forestry went up 14.1 percent, fisheries (21.9 percent), and mining and quarrying (35.7 percent). Germany was the main export partner (9.9 percent share), followed by the United Kingdom (6 percent), and UAE (5.8 percent).

Imports rose to USD 15.59 billion, mainly due to a 15.90 percent increase in purchases of manufacturing and a 38.9 percent rise in mining and quarrying. In contrast, imports decreased for agriculture, hunting and forestry (-0.5 percent) and fisheries (-42.5 percent). China was the main import partner (16.41 percent share), followed by Germany (10.52 percent), Russia (13.12 percent) and the USA (6.50 percent).

On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports went up 17 percent from the previous month while imports increased 9 percent.
 
 
 




Wednesday February 15 2017
Turkish Jobless Rate Rises To 6-1/2-Year High Of 12.1%
Statistics of Turkey l Chusnul Ch Manan| chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

The unemployment rate in Turkey increased to 12.1 percent in November of 2016 from 11.8 percent a year earlier. It was the highest level jobless rate since March 2010 as non-farm unemployment rose to 14.3 percent (1.9 percentage point increase) and the jobless rate among those aged 15 to 24 went up by 3.5 percentage point to 22.6 percent.

The number of unemployed persons went up by 590 thousand to 3.715 thousand and employment increased by 391 thousand to 27067 thousand. The non-agricultural sector increased 491 thousand jobs while the farm sector lost 101 thousand: employment decreased in agriculture (by 0.6 percentage point), industry (by 0.5 percentage point), and construction (by 0.1 percent). While rose in services (by 1.6 percentage point).
 
According to the distribution of employment by sector; 18.7 percent was employed in agriculture, 19.6 percent was in industry, 7.4 percent was in construction, and 54.2 percent was in services.
 
In addition, the number of people in the labour force rose by 980 thousand to 30781 thousand and those detached from the labour force decreased by 126 thousand to 28.288 thousand (employed). The participation rate rose 0.9 percentage points from a year earlier to 51.2 percent.
 
On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment went up by 55 thousand persons and reached 3 million 655 thousand while employment increased by 70 thousand and reached 27 million 368 thousand persons in November compared with the previous month.
 
 
 


Tuesday January 31 2017
Turkish Trade Deficit Narrows in December
Statistics of Turkey l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Turkey's trade deficit slightly decreased to $5.6 billion in December of 2016, compared to a $6.24 billion gap a year earlier as exports rose more than imports. It was the largest deficit since June. Exports increased by 9 percent to $12.8 billion, mainly driven by mining and quarrying, fisheries sales, and manufacturing. Imports rose 2.3 percent to $18.4 billion, led by manufacturing.

Year-on-year, exports increased to $12.8 billion, mainly bosted by a 9.5 percent rise in sales of manufactured products which accounted for 91.7 percent of total sales. Among manufacturing, medium-low-technology products accounted for 26 percent and increased 20.79 percent; high-technology products accounted for 4 percent and fell 1 percent; while medium-high-technology products represented 35.7 percent and rose 8.6 percent. In addition shipments of agriculture, hunting and forestry went down 4.2 percent, fisheries (+19.9 percent), and mining and quarrying (+14.4 percent). Germany was the main export partner (+9.3 percent share), followed by the United Kingdom (6 percent), UAE (5.9 percent) and Iraq (5.9 percent).

Imports rose to USD 18.4 billion, mainly due to a 4.2 percent increase in purchases of manufacturing and a 16.2 percent increase in others. In contrast, imports decreased for agriculture, hunting and forestry (-12 percent) and minning and quarrying (-8.9 percent), and fisheries (-31.7 percent). China was the main import partner (10.1 percent share), followed by Germany (9.9 percent), Russia (7.3 percent) and Italy (4.9 percent).

On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports went down 0.5 percent from the previous month while imports increased 6.1 percent.


Tuesday January 24 2017
Turkey Holds Repo Rate At 8%, Hikes Lending Rate To 9.25%
Central Bank of Turkey | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

The Central Bank of Turkey held its benchmark one-week repo rate at 8 percent on January 24th, while markets were expecting a 50bps hike, and raised its lending rate by 75bps to 9.25 percent, in an attempt to support the currency and to contain a deterioration in the inflation outlook.

The central bank kept its overnight borrowing rate at 7.25 percent and increased the rate at its late liquidity window to 11 percent from 10 percent.

Statement by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey:

Recently released data indicate a partial recovery in the economic activity. Demand from the European Union economies continues to contribute positively to exports, while domestic demand displays a weaker course. With the supportive measures and incentives provided recently, the recovery in the economic activity is expected to continue at a moderate pace. The Committee assesses that the implementation of the structural reforms would contribute to the potential growth significantly.

Aggregate demand developments support disinflation. Yet, excessive fluctuations in exchange rates since the previous meeting have increased the upside risks regarding the inflation outlook. The significant rise in inflation is expected to continue in the short term due to lagged pass-through effects and the volatility in food prices. Accordingly, the Committee decided to strengthen the monetary tightening in order to contain the deterioration in the inflation outlook.  

The Central Bank will continue to use all available instruments in pursuit of the price stability objective. Future monetary policy decisions will be conditional on the inflation outlook. Inflation expectations, pricing behavior and other factors affecting inflation will be closely monitored and, if needed, further monetary tightening will be delivered. Moreover, necessary liquidity measures will be taken in case of unhealthy pricing behavior in the foreign exchange market that cannot be justified by economic fundamentals.

It should be emphasized that any new data or information may lead the Committee to revise its stance.

The summary of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting will be released within five working days.


Monday January 16 2017
Turkish Jobless Rate Up to Over 6-Year High of 11.8%
Statistics of Turkey l Chusnul Ch Manan| chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

The unemployment rate in Turkey increased to 11.8 percent in October of 2016 from 10.50 percent a year earlier. It was the highest jobless rate since March 2010 as non-farm unemployment also rose to 13.7 percent (1.3 percentage point increase) and the jobless rate among those aged 15 to 24 went up by 1.4 percentage point to 19.9 percent.

The number of unemployed persons went up by 500 thousand to 3.647 thousand and employment increased by 411 thousand to 27267 thousand. The non-agricultural sector increased 579 thousand jobs while the farm sector lost 168 thousand: employment decreased in agriculture (by 0.9 percentage point) and in industry (by 0.6 percentage point) while rose in services (by 1.6 percentage point), and construction unchanged.

According to the distribution of employment by sector; 20.5 percent was employed in agriculture, 19.5 percent was in industry, 7.6 percent was in construction and 53.6percent was in services.

In addition, the number of people in the labour force rose by 911 thousand to 30914 thousand and those detached from the labour force decreased by 55 thousand to 28.076 thousand (employed). The participation rate rose 0.8 percentage points from a year earlier to 52.4 percent.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment went up by 117 thousand persons and reached 3 million 611 thousand while employment decreased by 23 thousand and reached 27 million 312 thousand persons in October compared with the previous month


Tuesday January 10 2017
Turkish Central Bank Lowers Forex Required Reserves
Central Bank of Turkey | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

Turkey’s central bank cut its forex required reserves by 50bps for all maturity brackets on Tuesday, adding $1.5 billion liquidity to the financial system, in an attempt to support the country's currency. It also reduced banks' borrowing limits to TRY 22 billion with effect from Wednesday. The move comes as the lira lost more than 5 percent of its value against the US dollar so far this year. The central bank, which raised rates for the first time since 2014 in November, is expected to hike borrowing costs when it meets on January 24th.

Statement by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey:

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) closely monitors the excessive volatility in the markets and will take necessary measures against unhealthy price formations that are inconsistent with economic fundamentals.

Banks’ borrowing limits at the Interbank Money Market established within the CBRT have been lowered to TL 22 billion to be effective as of 11 January 2017.

Moreover, foreign exchange reserve requirement ratios have been reduced by 50 basis points for all maturity brackets. With this revision, an additional liquidity of approximately USD 1.5 billion will be provided to the financial system.

Developments in markets are monitored closely and if deemed necessary, additional steps may be taken in order to maintain price stability and financial stability.




Tuesday January 03 2017
Turkish Inflation Rate at-5 Month High of 8.53% in December
Statistics of Turkey l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Consumer prices in Turkey increased 8.53 percent year-on-year in December of 2016, following a 7 percent rise in the previous month while market expected a 7.6 percent gain. It was the highest inflation since July, as cost of food and non-alcoholic beverages, housing, utilities and transportation increased at a faster pace.

Year-on-year, prices rose at a faster pace for food and non-alcoholic beverages (5.65 percent from +3.55 percent in the prior month), housing & utilities (+6.42 percent from +5.87 percent), health (+9.73 percent from +9.50 percent), transportation (+12.36 percent from +9.57 percent), hotels, cafe & restaurants (+8.62 percent from 8.50 percent) and miscellaneous goods & services (+11.08 percent from +10.92 percent). Cost went up less than in the prior month for clothing (+3.98 percent from +4.59 percent).
 
On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 1.64 percent, compared to a 0.52 percent rise in a month earlier and above market expectations of 0.93 percent rise.