Monday January 16 2017
Turkish Jobless Rate Up to Over 6-Year High of 11.8%
Statistics of Turkey l Chusnul Ch Manan| chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

The unemployment rate in Turkey increased to 11.8 percent in October of 2016 from 10.50 percent a year earlier. It was the highest jobless rate since March 2010 as non-farm unemployment also rose to 13.7 percent (1.3 percentage point increase) and the jobless rate among those aged 15 to 24 went up by 1.4 percentage point to 19.9 percent.

The number of unemployed persons went up by 500 thousand to 3.647 thousand and employment increased by 411 thousand to 27267 thousand. The non-agricultural sector increased 579 thousand jobs while the farm sector lost 168 thousand: employment decreased in agriculture (by 0.9 percentage point) and in industry (by 0.6 percentage point) while rose in services (by 1.6 percentage point), and construction unchanged.

According to the distribution of employment by sector; 20.5 percent was employed in agriculture, 19.5 percent was in industry, 7.6 percent was in construction and 53.6percent was in services.

In addition, the number of people in the labour force rose by 911 thousand to 30914 thousand and those detached from the labour force decreased by 55 thousand to 28.076 thousand (employed). The participation rate rose 0.8 percentage points from a year earlier to 52.4 percent.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment went up by 117 thousand persons and reached 3 million 611 thousand while employment decreased by 23 thousand and reached 27 million 312 thousand persons in October compared with the previous month




Tuesday January 10 2017
Turkish Central Bank Lowers Forex Required Reserves
Central Bank of Turkey | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

Turkey’s central bank cut its forex required reserves by 50bps for all maturity brackets on Tuesday, adding $1.5 billion liquidity to the financial system, in an attempt to support the country's currency. It also reduced banks' borrowing limits to TRY 22 billion with effect from Wednesday. The move comes as the lira lost more than 5 percent of its value against the US dollar so far this year. The central bank, which raised rates for the first time since 2014 in November, is expected to hike borrowing costs when it meets on January 24th.

Statement by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey:

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) closely monitors the excessive volatility in the markets and will take necessary measures against unhealthy price formations that are inconsistent with economic fundamentals.

Banks’ borrowing limits at the Interbank Money Market established within the CBRT have been lowered to TL 22 billion to be effective as of 11 January 2017.

Moreover, foreign exchange reserve requirement ratios have been reduced by 50 basis points for all maturity brackets. With this revision, an additional liquidity of approximately USD 1.5 billion will be provided to the financial system.

Developments in markets are monitored closely and if deemed necessary, additional steps may be taken in order to maintain price stability and financial stability.




Tuesday January 03 2017
Turkish Inflation Rate at-5 Month High of 8.53% in December
Statistics of Turkey l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Consumer prices in Turkey increased 8.53 percent year-on-year in December of 2016, following a 7 percent rise in the previous month while market expected a 7.6 percent gain. It was the highest inflation since July, as cost of food and non-alcoholic beverages, housing, utilities and transportation increased at a faster pace.

Year-on-year, prices rose at a faster pace for food and non-alcoholic beverages (5.65 percent from +3.55 percent in the prior month), housing & utilities (+6.42 percent from +5.87 percent), health (+9.73 percent from +9.50 percent), transportation (+12.36 percent from +9.57 percent), hotels, cafe & restaurants (+8.62 percent from 8.50 percent) and miscellaneous goods & services (+11.08 percent from +10.92 percent). Cost went up less than in the prior month for clothing (+3.98 percent from +4.59 percent).
 
On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 1.64 percent, compared to a 0.52 percent rise in a month earlier and above market expectations of 0.93 percent rise.
 




Friday December 30 2016
Turkish Trade Deficit at-9 Month Low in November
Turkstat l Chusnul Ch Manan| chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Turkey's trade deficit slightly decreased to $4.1 billion in November of 2016, compared to a $4.3 billion gap a year earlier. It was the lowest deficit since February as exports increased a 9.7 percent, mainly driven by manufacturing, mining and quarrying, and fisheries sales. While imports rose a 6 percent, led by manufacturing.

Year-on-year, exports increased to $12.8 billion, mainly bosted by a 9.3 percent rise in sales of manufactured products which accounted for 92.1 percent of total sales. Among manufacturing, medium-low-technology products accounted for 28.1 percent and increased 24.5 percent; high-technology products accounted for 3.7 percent and fell 12 percent; while medium-high-technology products represented 33.9 percent and rose 9.4 percent. In addition shipments of agriculture, hunting and forestry went up 7.8 percent, fisheries (+24.8 percent), and mining and quarrying (+31 percent). Germany was the main export partner (+9.7 percent share), followed by the United Kingdom (6.8 percent), Italy (6.8 percent) and Iraq (6.2 percent).
 
Imports rose to USD 16.9 billion, mainly due to a 8.1 percent increase in purchases of manufacturing and a 47.5 percent increase in others. In contrast, imports decreased for agriculture, hunting and forestry (-7 percent) and minning and quarrying (-11.6 percent). China was the main import partner (12.4 percent share), followed by Germany (10.8 percent), Russia (7.6 percent) and Italy (5.2percent).
 
On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports went down 0.9 percent from the previous month while imports fell 4.6 percent.
 




Tuesday December 20 2016
Turkey Leaves Rates On Hold In December
Central Bank of Turkey | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

The Central Bank of Turkey held its benchmark one-week repo rate at 8 percent on December 20th, following a 50bps increase in November. Policymakers said the recovery in the economic activity is expected to continue at a moderate pace while a weaker lira, which already lost 17 percent of its value against the dollar this year, and higher oil prices pose upside risks on the inflation outlook.

The central bank also kept its overnight lending rate at 8.5 percent and its overnight borrowing rate at 7.25 percent. 

Inflation was last recorded at 7 percent in November, well above central bank's 5 percent target, while Turkey's gross domestic product contracted for the first time in seven years in the third quarter of 2016.

Statement by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey:

Recently released data indicate that the economic activity has decelerated in the third quarter, before posting a partial recovery for the final quarter. Demand from the European Union economies continues to contribute positively to exports. With the supportive measures and incentives provided recently, the recovery in the economic activity is expected to continue at a moderate pace. The Committee assesses that the implementation of the structural reforms would contribute to the potential growth significantly.

Exchange rate movements due to recently heightened global uncertainty and the increase in oil prices pose upside risks on the inflation outlook. Yet, the aggregate demand developments restrain these effects. Developments will be closely monitored in order to make a sound assessment regarding the net impact of these factors.

Future monetary policy decisions will be conditional on the inflation outlook. Inflation expectations, pricing behavior and other factors affecting inflation will be closely monitored and the cautious monetary policy stance will be maintained.




Thursday December 15 2016
Turkish Jobless Rate Up to 11.3% in September
Statistics of Turkey l Chusnul Ch Manan| chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

The unemployment rate in Turkey increased to 11.3 percent in September of 2016 from 10.30 percent a year earlier but unchanged from the prior month. Non-farm unemployment also rose to 13.7 percent (1.3 percentage point increase) and the jobless rate among those aged 15 to 24 went up by 1.4 percentage point to 19.9 percent.

The number of unemployed persons went up by 420 thousand to 3.523 thousand and employment increased by 408 thousand to 27564 thousand. The non-agricultural sector increased 576 thousand jobs while the farm sector lost 168 thousand: employment decreased in agriculture (by 1 percentage point) and in industry (by 0.3 percentage point) while rose in services (by 0.5 percentage point), and construction increased by 0.2 percentage point.

According to the distribution of employment by sector; 20.5 percent was employed in agriculture, 19.1 percent was in industry, 7.7 percent was in construction and 52.7 percent was in services.
In addition, the number of people in the labour force rose by 828 thousand to 31087 thousand and those detached from the labour force increased by 31 thousand to 27826 thousand (employed). The participation rate rose 0.7 percentage points from a year earlier to 52.8 percent.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment went up by 5 thousand persons and reached 3 million 474 thousand while employment increased by 265 thousand and reached 27 million 338 thousand persons in September compared with the previous month


Monday December 12 2016
Turkish GDP Shrinks More Than Expected In Q3
Turkstat |Yekaterina Guchshina | yekaterina@tradingeconomics.com

The Turkish economy shrank 1.8 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2016, compared to an upwardly revised 4.5 percent expansion in the previous period and well below market expectations of a 0.5 percent fall. It is the first contraction since the third quarter of 2009, driven by fall in household spending, investments and exports.

Household consumption contracted 3.2 percent (+3.1 percent in Q2); investment fell 0.6 percent (+4.7 percent) while government spending jumped 23.8 percent (+13.7 percent in Q2). Net exports contributed negatively, as exports dropped 7 percent (after being flat in Q2) while imports rose 4.3 percent (9.1 percent in Q2). 

On the production side, both services (-8.4 percent compared to -0.8 percent in Q2) and industry (-1.4 percent compared to +4.9 percent in Q2) contracted and construction rose at a slower 1.4 percent (+15.7 percent in Q2).




Monday December 05 2016
Turkish Inflation Rate at 6-Month Low of 7.0% in November
Turkstat l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Consumer prices in Turkey rose 7.0 percent year-on-year in November of 2016, following a 7.16 percent rise in October. It was the lowest reading since May, as cost of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased at a slower pace. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.52 percent and below market expectations of 0.8 percent gain.

Year-on-year, prices rose at a slower pace for food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.55 percent compared to +5.20 percent in October); clothing and footwear (+4.59 percent from +60.7 percent); health (+9.16 percent from +9.35 percent) and education (+9.50 percent compared to +9.58 percent). Price increased at a faster pace for: housing and utilities (+5.87 percent from +5.50 percent); miscellaneous goods and services (+10.92 percent compared to +9.34 percent), transportation (+9.57 percent from+8.19 percent); hotels, cafes and restaurants (+8.50 percent compared to +8.34 percent).
 
On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.52 percent, and below market expectations of a 0.8 percent increase, mainly driven by a 3.89 percent gain in cost of clothing and footwear and 0.49 percent rise in transportation.


Wednesday November 30 2016
Turkish Trade Deficit Widens in October
Turkish Statistical Institute l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Turkey's trade deficit increased to $4.16 billion in October of 2016, compared to a $3.67 billion gap a year earlier, as exports decreased 3 percent to $12.841 billion and imports went up 0.5 percent.

Year-on-year, exports decreased to $12.841 billion, mainly driven by manufacturing (-2.97 percent) and agriculture and forestry (-10.22 percent). Among manufacturing, medium-low-technology products accounted for 27.7 percent and decreased 2.33 percent; high-technology products accounted for 3.7 percent and fell 12.5 percent; and low-technology product accounted for 35.5 percent drop by 5.61 percent. While medium-high-technology products represented 33.1 percent rose 0.66 percent.
 
Meanwhile, shipments of agriculture, hunting and forestry fell 10.22 percent, while increased for fisheries (+14.29 percent) and mining and quarrying (+14.60 percent). Germany was the main export partner (10.19 percent share), followed by the United Kingdom (8.17 percent)), Italy (6.61 percent) and Iraq (6.03 percent).
 
Imports increased 0.5 percent percent to USD 17.004 billion, mainly due to a 4.09 percent rise in purchases of manufacturing. China was the main import partner (13.02 percent share), followed by Germany (10.33 percent), Russia (7.08 percent), and Italy (5 percent).
 
On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports increased by 2.5 percent from the previous month while imports decreased by 1.7 percent.
 
 


Thursday November 24 2016
Turkey Hikes Rates For 1st Time Since 2014
Central Bank of Turkey | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

The Central Bank of Turkey raised its benchmark one-week repo rate by a higher-than-expected 50bps to 8 percent on November 24th and its overnight lending rate by 25 bps to 8.5 percent, while it held its borrowing rate at 7.25 percent. It was the first policy tightening since January 2014, after the lira fell to a record low amid a slowdown in economic activity. The lira has already lost around 14 percent of its value against the dollar this year on stronger dollar and concerns over the aftermath of July's failed coup. Inflation was last recorded at 7.2 percent in October, well above central bank's 5 percent target.

Recently released data indicate a deceleration in the economic activity for the third quarter. Meanwhile, demand from the European Union economies continues to contribute positively to exports. With the supportive measures and incentives provided recently, economic activity is expected to recover starting from the final quarter. The Committee assesses that the implementation of the structural reforms would contribute to the potential growth significantly.

The slowdown in aggregate demand contributes to the fall in inflation. Yet, exchange rate movements due to recently heightened global uncertainty and volatility pose upside risks on the inflation outlook. The Committee decided to implement monetary tightening to contain adverse impact of these developments on expectations and the pricing behavior. 

Future monetary policy decisions will be conditional on the inflation outlook. Inflation expectations, pricing behavior and other factors affecting inflation will be closely monitored and the cautious monetary policy stance will be maintained. 

It should be emphasized that any new data or information may lead the Committee to revise its stance.