Monday December 05 2016
Turkish Inflation Rate at 6-Month Low of 7.0% in November
Turkstat l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Consumer prices in Turkey rose 7.0 percent year-on-year in November of 2016, following a 7.16 percent rise in October. It was the lowest reading since May, as cost of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased at a slower pace. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.52 percent and below market expectations of 0.8 percent gain.

Year-on-year, prices rose at a slower pace for food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.55 percent compared to +5.20 percent in October); clothing and footwear (+4.59 percent from +60.7 percent); health (+9.16 percent from +9.35 percent) and education (+9.50 percent compared to +9.58 percent). Price increased at a faster pace for: housing and utilities (+5.87 percent from +5.50 percent); miscellaneous goods and services (+10.92 percent compared to +9.34 percent), transportation (+9.57 percent from+8.19 percent); hotels, cafes and restaurants (+8.50 percent compared to +8.34 percent).
 
On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.52 percent, and below market expectations of a 0.8 percent increase, mainly driven by a 3.89 percent gain in cost of clothing and footwear and 0.49 percent rise in transportation.




Wednesday November 30 2016
Turkish Trade Deficit Widens in October
Turkish Statistical Institute l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Turkey's trade deficit increased to $4.16 billion in October of 2016, compared to a $3.67 billion gap a year earlier, as exports decreased 3 percent to $12.841 billion and imports went up 0.5 percent.

Year-on-year, exports decreased to $12.841 billion, mainly driven by manufacturing (-2.97 percent) and agriculture and forestry (-10.22 percent). Among manufacturing, medium-low-technology products accounted for 27.7 percent and decreased 2.33 percent; high-technology products accounted for 3.7 percent and fell 12.5 percent; and low-technology product accounted for 35.5 percent drop by 5.61 percent. While medium-high-technology products represented 33.1 percent rose 0.66 percent.
 
Meanwhile, shipments of agriculture, hunting and forestry fell 10.22 percent, while increased for fisheries (+14.29 percent) and mining and quarrying (+14.60 percent). Germany was the main export partner (10.19 percent share), followed by the United Kingdom (8.17 percent)), Italy (6.61 percent) and Iraq (6.03 percent).
 
Imports increased 0.5 percent percent to USD 17.004 billion, mainly due to a 4.09 percent rise in purchases of manufacturing. China was the main import partner (13.02 percent share), followed by Germany (10.33 percent), Russia (7.08 percent), and Italy (5 percent).
 
On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports increased by 2.5 percent from the previous month while imports decreased by 1.7 percent.
 
 




Thursday November 24 2016
Turkey Hikes Rates For 1st Time Since 2014
Central Bank of Turkey | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

The Central Bank of Turkey raised its benchmark one-week repo rate by a higher-than-expected 50bps to 8 percent on November 24th and its overnight lending rate by 25 bps to 8.5 percent, while it held its borrowing rate at 7.25 percent. It was the first policy tightening since January 2014, after the lira fell to a record low amid a slowdown in economic activity. The lira has already lost around 14 percent of its value against the dollar this year on stronger dollar and concerns over the aftermath of July's failed coup. Inflation was last recorded at 7.2 percent in October, well above central bank's 5 percent target.

Recently released data indicate a deceleration in the economic activity for the third quarter. Meanwhile, demand from the European Union economies continues to contribute positively to exports. With the supportive measures and incentives provided recently, economic activity is expected to recover starting from the final quarter. The Committee assesses that the implementation of the structural reforms would contribute to the potential growth significantly.

The slowdown in aggregate demand contributes to the fall in inflation. Yet, exchange rate movements due to recently heightened global uncertainty and volatility pose upside risks on the inflation outlook. The Committee decided to implement monetary tightening to contain adverse impact of these developments on expectations and the pricing behavior. 

Future monetary policy decisions will be conditional on the inflation outlook. Inflation expectations, pricing behavior and other factors affecting inflation will be closely monitored and the cautious monetary policy stance will be maintained. 

It should be emphasized that any new data or information may lead the Committee to revise its stance.




Tuesday November 15 2016
Turkish Jobless Rate Rises to 19 Month-High in August
Statistic of Turkish l Chusnul Ch Manan| chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

The unemployment rate in Turkey increased to 11.3 percent in August of 2016 from 10.10 percent a year earlier. It was the highest figure since January 2015. Non-farm unemployment also rose to 13.7 percent from 12.4 percent and the jobless rate among those aged 15 to 24 went up by 1.6 percentage point to 19.9 percent.

The number of unemployed persons went up by 435 thousand to 3493 thousand and employment increased by 323 thousand to 27473 thousand. The non-agricultural sector increased 579 thousand jobs while the farm sector lost 257 thousand: employment decreased in agriculture (by 1.2 percentage point) and in industry (by 0.3 percentage point) while rose in services (by 1.8 percentage point), and constuction decreased by 0.1 percentage point.

According to the distribution of employment by sector; 21 percent was employed in agriculture, 19 percent was in industry, 7.4 percent was in construction and 52.6 percent was in services.
 
In addition, the number of people in the labour force rose by 759 thousand to 30967 thousand and those detached from the labour force increased by 323 thousand to 27473 thousand. The participation rate rose 0.5 percentage points from a year earlier to 52.6 percent.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment went up by 66 thousand persons and reached 3 million 475  thousand while employment increased by 34 thousand and reached 27 million 81 thousand in August compared with the previous month
 




Thursday November 03 2016
Turkey Inflation Rate at 5-Month Low of 7.16% in October
Turkstat | Yekaterina Guchshina | yekaterina@tradingeconomics.com

Consumer prices in Turkey increased 7.16 percent year-on-year in October of 2016, following 7.28 percent growth in the previous month and below market expectations of 7.4 percent growth. It was the lowest inflation rate since May, as cost of housing and utilities at a slower pace. On a monthly basis, consumer prices jumped 1.44 percent, driven by 10.4 percent growth in clothing and footwear prices.

Year-on-year, prices rose at a slower pace for housing and utilities (+5.5 percent from +6.64 percent in September); clothing and footwear (+60.7 percent from +7.03 percent); health (+9.39 from +9.65 percent); miscellaneous goods and services (+9.34 percent compared to +10.03 percent) and education (+9.58 percent compared to +10.37 percent). In contrast, inflation accelerated for food and non-alcoholic beverages (+5.2 percent compared to +4.16 percent); transportation (+8.19 percent compared to +7.54 percent); and hotels, cafes and restaurants (+8.34 percent compared to +8.31 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices surged 1.44 percent, while below market expectations of a 1.62 percent growth, mainly driven by a 10.43 percent increase in cost of clothing and footwear and 2 percent rise in transportation.


Monday October 31 2016
Turkey Trade Gap Widens 14% YoY in September
Turkstat | Yekaterina Guchshina | yekaterina@tradingeconomics.com

Turkey's trade deficit increased to $4.36 billion in September of 2016, compared to a $3.8 billion gap a year earlier. Exports fell 5.6 percent, dragged down by manufacturing and agricultural sales. Imports declined at a slower 0.7 percent, led by mining and quarrying and fisheries purchases.

Year-on-year, exports decreased to $10.935 billion, mainly dragged down by a 5.9 percent slump in sales of manufactured products which accounted for 94 percent of total sales. Among manufacturing, medium-low-technology products accounted for 26 percent and decreased 15 percent; high-technology products accounted for 3.4 percent and fell 26 percent; while medium-high-technology products represented 34.6 percent rose 0.4 percent. In addition, shipments of agriculture, hunting and forestry went down 8 percent while increased for fisheries (+22.1 percent) and mining and quarrying (+13.4 percent). Germany was the main export partner (10.4 percent share), followed by the United Kingdom (7.2 percent)), Italy (6 percent) and Iraq (5.3 percent).

Imports edged down to USD 15.29 billion, mainly due to a 35.5 percent drop in purchases of manufacturing and a 41.9 percent fall in fisheries. In contrast, imports rose for agriculture, hunting and forestry (+32.2 percent) and manufacturing (+3.5 percent). China was the main import partner (14.5 percent share), followed by Germany (10.9 percent), Russia (6.8 percent) and Italy (4.6 percent). 

On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports went down 3 percent from the previous month while imports increased 3.1 percent. 


Thursday October 20 2016
Turkey Holds Repo Rate at 7.5%, Lending Rate at 8.25%
Central Bank of Turkey | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

The Central Bank of Turkey held its benchmark one-week repo rate at 7.5 percent on October 20th, as widely expected, and its overnight lending rate was unexpectedly left unchanged at 8.25 percent following seven consecutive cuts. Policymakers agreed that a cautious monetary policy stance had to be maintained as a weaker lira and other cost factors restrained the improvement in inflation outlook. The bank also said that the direction and the timing of the next step in the monetary policy would be data dependent. Inflation was last recorded at 7.3 percent in September, well above central bank's 5 percent target.

Recently released data and indicators regarding the third quarter display a deceleration in the economic activity. Reduced tightness in monetary conditions and the recent macroprudential measures support the overall financial conditions. The lagged effects of the terms of trade developments and the moderate course of consumer loans limit the widening in the current account balance driven by the decline in tourism revenues. Demand from the European Union economies continues to contribute positively to exports. With the supportive measures and incentives provided recently, domestic demand is expected to recover starting from the final quarter. The Committee assesses that the implementation of the structural reforms would contribute to the potential growth significantly.

The slowdown in aggregate demand contributes to the gradual fall in core inflation. Yet, the recent developments in exchange rates and other cost factors restrain the improvement in inflation outlook and thus necessitate the maintenance of a cautious monetary policy stance.

In light of these assessments, the Committee decided to keep the interest rates at current levels. The Committee stated that the direction and the timing of the next step in the monetary policy simplification process will be data dependent.

Future monetary policy decisions will be conditional on the inflation outlook. Taking into account inflation expectations, pricing behavior and the course of other factors affecting inflation, the cautious monetary policy stance will be maintained.


Monday October 17 2016
Turkey Jobless Rate Surges to 10.7% in July
Turkstat | Yekaterina Guchshina | yekaterina@tradingeconomics.com

The unemployment rate in Turkey increased to 10.7 percent in July of 2016 from 9.8 percent a year earlier. Non-farm unemployment also rose to 13 percent from 12 percent and the jobless rate among those aged 15 to 24 went up by 1.5 percent to 19.8 percent.

The number of unemployed persons went up by 354 thousand to 3324 thousand and employment increased by 390 thousand to 27651 thousand. The non-agricultural sector lost 291 thousand jobs while the farm sector added 586 thousand: employment decreased in agriculture (by 1.3 percentage point) and in industry (by 0.5 percentage point) while rose in services (by 1.8 percentage point). According to the distribution of employment by sector; 20.7 percent was employed in agriculture, 19 percent was in industry, 7.4 percent was in construction and 52.9 percent was in services.
In addition, the number of people in the labour force rose by 650 thousand to 30961 thousand and those detached from the labour force increased by 215 thousand to 27795 thousand. The participation rate went up to 52.7 percent from 52.4 percent a year earlier. 
On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment went up by 73 thousand persons and reached 3 million 401 thousand while employment increased by 22 thousand and reached 27 million 78 thousand in July compared with the previous month.


Monday October 03 2016
Turkey Inflation Rate at 4-Month Low of 7.3% in September
Turkstat | Yekaterina Guchshina | yekaterina@tradingeconomics.com

Consumer prices in Turkey rose 7.3 percent year-on-year in September of 2016, following 8.1 percent increase in August and below market expectations of 7.8 percent. It was the lowest inflation rate since May, as cost of food rose at a slower pace. On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.18 percent.

Year-on-year, prices rose at a slower pace for food and non-alcoholic beverages (+4.16 percent compared to +6.19 percent in August); housing and utilities (+6.64 percent compared to +6.82 percent); clothing and footwear (+7.03 percent compared to +7.84 percent); miscellaneous goods and services (+10.03 percent compared to +11.84 percent); health (+9.65 percent compared to +10.6 percent); hotels, cafes and restaurants (+8.31 percent compared to +8.63 percent); and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (+22.61 percent compared to +23.3 percent). In contrast, inflation accelerated for  transportation (+7.54 percent compared to +6.74 percent); and education (+10.37 percent compared to 9.18 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.18 percent, compared to market expectations of a 0.66 percent growth, mainly driven by a 2.7 percent increase in cost of transportation. In contrast, prices of clothing and footwear recorded 3.49 percent drop.


Friday September 30 2016
Turkey Trade Deficit Narrows 5.3% YoY in August
Turkstat | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

Turkey recorded a USD 4.69 billion trade deficit in August of 2016, 5.3 percent lower than a USD 4.95 billion gap a year earlier. Exports jumped 7.7 percent year-on-year, following an 11.6 percent fall in July, boosted by manufacturing sales. Imports increased at a slower 3.7 percent, after slumping 19.6 percent in the previous month.

Year-on-year, exports increased to USD 11.87 billion, mainly boosted by a 7.7 percent gain in sales of manufactured products which accounted for 94.4 percent of total sales. Among manufacturing, high-technology products accounted for 3.4 percent while medium-high-technology products represented 30.9 percent. In addition, shipments of fisheries (+34.8 percent) and agriculture, hunting and forestry (+12.8 percent) products went up while those of mining and quarrying were down 5.8 percent. Germany was the main export partner (10.5 percent share), followed by the United Kingdom (7.7 percent)), Iraq (6 percent) and the US (5.1 percent).

Imports rose to USD 16.55 billion, mainly due to a 6.7 percent increase in purchases of manufacturing and a 19.4 percent gain in agriculture. In contrast, imports fell for fisheries (-81.9 percent) and mining and quarrying (-22.3 percent). China was the main import partner (15.3 percent share), followed by Germany (10.5 percent), Russia (8.3 percent) and Italy (5 percent). 

On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports went up 10.5 percent from the previous month while imports decreased 0.6 percent.