Uganda | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Uganda including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Uganda economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 0.78 1.6 0.7 0.63 1.7 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.80 4.55 3.72 3.55 3.53 3.36 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 6.80 7 7.2 7.8 7.5 8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 11.00 11 10.5 10 10 10 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -181.00 -185 -185 -185 -185 -185 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 34.40 34.06 33.8 33.53 33.24 31.51 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 3645.00 3640 3680 3780 3750 4320 [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 0.78 1.6 0.7 0.63 1.7 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.40 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.5 5.9 percent [+]
GDP 27.53 28.57 27.97 27.37 27.55 27.53 USD Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 14514.00 14079 14233 14388 14638 15961 UGX Billion [+]
GDP per capita 672.81 677 680 682 685 718 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 1738.46 1742 1748 1755 1759 1828 USD [+]
GDP Constant Prices 14187.30 14530 14711 14893 15076 17095 UGX Billion [+]
GDP From Agriculture 2902.24 3607 3252 2858 3311 3436 UGX Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 991.00 970 951 1000 1006 1132 UGX Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 1067.64 1142 1124 1098 1112 1123 UGX Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 187.45 204 204 204 207 229 UGX Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 505.52 543 517 524 518 534 UGX Billion [+]
GDP From Services 7324.06 7449 7663 7495 7406 7828 UGX Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.80 4.55 3.72 3.55 3.53 3.36 percent [+]
Population 39.03 39.66 39.99 40.31 40.64 45.74 Million [+]
Wages High Skilled 720000.00 720000 720000 720000 720000 720000 UGX/Month [+]
Employment Rate 47.80 47.8 46.03 44.26 45.45 80.91 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 6.80 7 7.2 7.8 7.5 8 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 167.20 170 172 174 175 183 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 11.50 12.61 12.84 12.92 12.94 12.94 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.60 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55 percent [+]
Import Prices 131.06 132 132 132 132 132 Index points [+]
Producer Prices 288.60 290 290 290 290 290 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.00 2.77 2.76 2.77 2.78 2.77 percent [+]
Export Prices 179.47 181 181 181 181 181 Index points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 162.00 164 165 166 167 171 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 4.80 4.36 4.42 4.87 5.44 5.77 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 11.00 11 10.5 10 10 10 percent [+]
Money Supply M2 13146.40 13244 13209 13239 13207 13237 UGX Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 18900.60 18929 18915 18908 18906 18905 UGX Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3172.47 3197 3217 3228 3234 3242 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 12030.10 12283 12468 12648 12825 14523 SHS Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 13.20 12.91 13.35 13.79 13.89 13.69 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -181.00 -185 -185 -185 -185 -185 USD Million [+]
Exports 243.63 252 250 251 251 251 USD Million [+]
Imports 424.60 433 432 432 432 432 USD Million [+]
Current Account -188.90 -297 -294 -299 -283 -295 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -8.70 -7.87 -8.4 -8.93 -8.86 -8.16 percent [+]
Terms of Trade 136.93 132 130 128 127 124 Index Points [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1266.00 1366 1375 1384 1389 1583 Thousand [+]
Terrorism Index 4.33 4.34 4.3 4.26 4.26 4.24 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 34.40 34.06 33.8 33.53 33.24 31.51 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.60 -3.35 -3.29 -3.23 -3.33 -3.41 percent of GDP [+]
Military Expenditure 339.80 426 459 492 503 388 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 5188.41 5446 5435 5423 5364 5544 UGX billion [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 55.20 58 57.2 56 58.6 57.7 [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.48 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.49 0.49 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 115.00 113 114 114 113 122 [+]
Corruption Index 25.00 24 24 24 24 25 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 151.00 147 149 150 152 161 [+]
Changes In Inventories 197.42 200 204 208 209 177 UGX billion [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.69 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.68 3.68 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 113.00 118 118 118 118 119 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Private Sector Credit 12056857.00 11939537 11911292 11895926 11888008 11879902 UGX Million [+]
Consumer Spending 42691.40 43511 43979 44447 44886 49715 UGX billion [+]
Consumer Credit 1988822.75 1999965 2018678 2003604 2019379 2003747 SHS Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 214.80 223 223 224 224 224 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 40.00 40 40 40 40 40 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]