United States Nonfarm Unit Labour Cost  Forecast 2016-2020

Labour Costs in the United States is expected to be 112.10 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Labour Costs in the United States to stand at 113.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Nonfarm Unit Labour Cost is projected to trend around 117.33 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Nonfarm Unit Labour Cost
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Forecast Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020 Unit
Labour Costs 112 112 113 113 113 117 Index Points
United States Nonfarm Unit Labour Cost Forecasts are projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model calibrated using our analysts expectations. We model the past behaviour of United States Nonfarm Unit Labour Cost using vast amounts of historical data and we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account our analysts assessments and future expectations. The forecast for - United States Nonfarm Unit Labour Cost - was last predicted on Thursday, May 25, 2017.
United States Labour Last Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.4 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 6
Non Farm Payrolls 211 145 165 160 190 170
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 194 157 160 159 159 159
Government Payrolls 17 10 12.15 13 12.08 11
Manufacturing Payrolls 6 5 8.81 10 9.57 -2
Initial Jobless Claims 232 236 236 236 236 236
Continuing Jobless Claims 1898 1819 1737 1710 1701 1695
ADP Employment Change 177 190 193 164 194 150
Employed Persons 153156 153552 154021 154437 154808 154000
Unemployed Persons 7056 6906 6677 6503 6369 5943
Average Hourly Earnings 0.3 0.18 0.19 0.21 0.2 0.21
Average Weekly Hours 34.4 34.34 34.34 34.34 34.34 34.34
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.9 62.88 62.88 62.89 62.89 62.89
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.01 0.97 1.18 1.07 1.05 0.14
Youth Unemployment Rate 9.4 9.22 8.98 8.81 8.68 8.24
Labour Costs 112 112 113 113 113 117
Productivity 107 106 108 108 108 110
Job Vacancies 5684 5741 5699 5711 5728 5751
Job Offers 5743 5759 5779 5798 5814 5875
Challenger Job Cuts 36602 38316 38998 37895 38272 63500
Wages 21.96 22.25 22.45 22.72 22.79 26.5
Wage Growth 5.53 5.44 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.45
Wages in Manufacturing 20.76 21.11 21.36 21.61 21.72 25.61
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.5 7.5 7.75
Employment Cost Index 0.8 0.63 0.59 0.66 0.63 0.63
Labor Market Conditions Index 3.5 0.6 0.7 1 2.81 0.5
Population 324 325 325 326 326 332
Retirement Age Women 66 66 66 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 66 66 66 66 66 66
Living Wage Family 1496 1633 1641 1640 1640 1640
Living Wage Individual 1408 1380 1373 1369 1366 1362
Part Time Employment 27233 27344 27367 27365 27365 27365
Full Time Employment 125987 126434 127005 127471 127858 129521
Employment Rate 60.2 60.29 60.4 60.49 60.56 60.77
Wages Low Skilled 1780 1827 1827 1827 1827 1827
Wages High Skilled 4130 3956 3950 3968 4006 3973