United States Nfib Business Optimism Index  Forecast 2016-2020

NFIB Business Optimism Index in the United States is expected to be 106.40 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate NFIB Business Optimism Index in the United States to stand at 94.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Nfib Business Optimism Index is projected to trend around 97.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Nfib Business Optimism Index
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Forecast Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020 Unit
NFIB Business Optimism Index 104 106 101 95 94 97 Index Points
United States Nfib Business Optimism Index Forecasts are projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model calibrated using our analysts expectations. We model the past behaviour of United States Nfib Business Optimism Index using vast amounts of historical data and we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account our analysts assessments and future expectations. The forecast for - United States Nfib Business Optimism Index - was last predicted on Thursday, May 25, 2017.
United States Business Last Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 54.8 53.1 52.4 51.5 52 52
Services PMI 54 53.6 52.4 52.7 52.9 54.8
Non Manufacturing PMI 57.5 57.3 57.5 57.07 57.2 57.04
Manufacturing PMI 52.5 53.7 53.8 53 52.7 53
Composite Pmi 53.9 53.8 53.8 52 52.4 55.1
Industrial Production 2.2 1.5 2 3 2.4 1.1
Industrial Production Mom 1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2
Manufacturing Production 1.7 1.8 2.1 2 2.73 1.9
Capacity Utilization 76.7 75.8 75.9 76 77.67 78
Durable Goods Orders 0.7 0.4 0.3 -1.2 0.32 0.4
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense 0.1 0.36 0.28 0.33 0.32 0.31
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.27 0.1
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0 0.17 0.23 0.26 0.26 0.26
New Orders 478185 483180 485033 485742 486016 486188
Factory Orders 0.5 -0.1 0.4 -0.5 0.28 0.2
Business Inventories 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.8 0.22 0.2
Changes in Inventories 10.3 69.32 37.84 70.07 32.44 72.03
Wholesale Inventories 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.23 0.2
Bankruptcies 23591 23120 22994 22746 22761 22830
Corporate Profits 1611 1630 1632 1634 1635 1635
NFIB Business Optimism Index 104 106 101 95 94 97
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index -1 12 9 8 7 5
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 38.8 16 12 9 8 6.3
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 1 10 6 4 3 3
Ism New York Index 55.8 55.08 55.78 55.75 55.65 55.7
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 16.8 15 14.3 14 15 2
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.49 0.13 0.09 0.05 0.2 0.05
Chicago Pmi 58.3 57.4 55 54 53 58.12
Total Vehicle Sales 16.88 19 15 14 18 18.7
Car Production 3.54 3.92 3.86 3.61 3.89 4.04
Car Registrations 569 588 560 543 547 545
Crude Oil Stocks Change -4.43 1.5 1 -0.5 0.23 0.1
Natural Gas Stocks Change 68 63.89 63.89 63.89 63.89 63.89
Gasoline Stocks Change -787 20.44 22.53 22.53 22.53 22.53
Leading Economic Index 182 183 184 185 186 190
Small Business Sentiment 51.67 54.03 52.71 52.53 53.49 54.76
Steel Production 7003 6320 6400 6470 6824 7150
Mining Production 7.3 7.68 8.48 2 8.82 1
Corruption Index 74 75.5 75.5 75.5 75.5 75.5
Corruption Rank 18 16 16 16 16 16
Competitiveness Index 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.73 5.69
Competitiveness Rank 3 3 3 3 3 3
Ease of Doing Business 8 7 7 7 6 6