United States Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM  Forecast 2016-2020

Retail Sales Ex Autos in the United States is expected to be 0.10 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales Ex Autos in the United States to stand at 0.31 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM is projected to trend around 0.31 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
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Forecast Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020 Unit
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0 0.1 0.2 0.31 0.31 0.31 percent
United States Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM Forecasts are projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model calibrated using our analysts expectations. We model the past behaviour of United States Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM using vast amounts of historical data and we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account our analysts assessments and future expectations. The forecast for - United States Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM - was last predicted on Monday, April 24, 2017.
United States Consumer Last Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 98 95.3 95 94 94 86.7
Retail Sales MoM -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.29 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 5.2 3 3.1 5.43 5.43 5.44
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0 0.1 0.2 0.31 0.31 0.31
Consumer Spending 11670 11851 11938 12020 12095 12741
Disposable Personal Income 14402 14539 14650 14761 14872 16090
Personal Spending 0.1 0.1 0.32 0.4 0.32 0.5
Personal Income 0.4 0.33 0.33 0.6 0.33 0.33
Personal Savings 5.6 5.54 5.54 5.54 5.54 5.54
Consumer Credit 15.2 17.09 17.21 17.24 17.24 17.24
Private Sector Credit 9133 9195 9256 9314 9368 9794
Bank Lending Rate 3.88 4 3.85 4.25 3.87 5.25
Economic Optimism Index 51.7 52.62 51.48 51 50.79 50.64
Redbook Index 2.3 1.85 1.84 1.84 1.84 1.84
Gasoline Prices 0.61 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.57 0.54
Households Debt To Gdp 79.4 79.5 79.5 80 80.26 82.6
Chain Store Sales 3584 4947 4852 4871 4866 4867