US producer prices rose 0.7% month-over-month in February 2026, above 0.5% in January and much higher than forecasts of 0.3%. It is the biggest increase in producer prices in seven months, with goods prices soaring 1.1% the most since August 2023, led by a 48.9% jump in prices for fresh and dry vegetables. The indexes for diesel fuel, chicken eggs, gasoline, jet fuel, and tobacco products also increased. Conversely, prices for jewelry and jewelry products fell 4%. Decreases were also seen in the cost for home heating oil and for soft drinks. Meanwhile, prices for services rose 0.5%, the least in three months, with prices for traveler accommodation services rising 5.7% and making the largest contribution. The core PPI increased 0.5%, after a 0.8% rise in January but above forecasts of 0.3%. On an annual basis, headline producer inflation jumped to 3.4%, the highest in a year, compared to 2.9% in January and forecasts it would remain at 2.9%. Core producer inflation also jumped to 3.9%.

WTI crude oil futures rebounded to near $98 a barrel following reports of an attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field, which is shared with Qatar. Iranian state TV said US and Israeli airstrikes hit South Pars and nearby petrochemical facilities in Asaluyeh, marking the first known strike on Iran’s upstream energy infrastructure in this conflict. South Pars reached record daily output of 730 million cubic meters in 2025. Overnight, Iranian attacks on Israel and Gulf states continued as Tehran vowed revenge for the killing of security chief Ali Larijani, while Israel said Iranian intelligence minister Esmaeil Khatib was killed. President Trump said the US could end the war with Iran “in the near future.” Also, Iraq plans to resume exports via a pipeline to Turkey’s Ceyhan port, though volumes will cover only a fraction of prewar output. Meanwhile, API data showed US crude inventories rose 6.56 million barrels last week, far exceeding expectations.

US equity indices remained lower on Wednesday after the FOMC held interest rates unchanged, as expected, and maintained their median projections of a rate cut this year. The S&P 500 fell 0.5% and the Dow dropped nearly 1%, while tech supported the Nasdaq 100 to a softer 0.3% drop. A large group of FOMC members projected no rate cuts for this year to reflect a degree of concern that the surge in energy prices would significantly impact consumer inflation, aligning with markets. This was magnified by an aggressively hot PPI released today. Still, signs of a soft balanced concerns in both sides of the Fed mandate to hold uncertainty in their policy outlook. Strikes in Iranian energy infrastructure triggered another increase in key energy prices and lifted yields, pressuring equities across the board. Visa and Mastercard fell 3% each to set the pace for credit services, while B&G and Walmart fell over 2% each for a pessimistic session for defensive stocks.

New orders for manufactured good in the US inched higher by 0.1% from the previous month to $620.1 billion in January of 2026, trimming the revised 0.4% decline in the previous month and in line with the market consensus. The uptick was carried by a 0.3% increase to $298.7 billion in nondurable goods industries. Meanwhile, durable goods orders were loosely unchanged at $321.3 billion in the period as an increase in computers and electronic products (1.3% to $28.3 billion), machinery (0.2% to $40.3 billion), fabricated metal products (0.5% to $42.8 billion), and primary metals (0.7% to 27.9 billion) offset a 0.8% decline in orders of transportation equipment (-0.8% to $113.5 billion) amid a 23.8% plunge in defense aircraft to $5.3 billion. Excluding transportation, orders were 0.4% higher, a third month of increase.

The Bank of Canada left its overnight target rate steady at 2.25% in its March 2026 meeting, aligned with market expectations and its earlier guidance, and noted that the current policy remains appropriate given the Bank's baseline economic outlook. Still, the war in the Middle East has increased volatility in global energy prices and heightened risks to the global economy to drive the Governing Council to warn of uncertainty, potentially warranting an adjustment in monetary policy in either direction. The central bank acknowledged that near term economic growth will be weaker than anticipated in January, with the Canadian GDP having contracted 0.6% in the fourth quarter of last year. Additionally, CPI inflation is expected to rise in the coming months as trade related cost pressures and a sharp increase in global energy prices are offset by eased inflation of 1.8% in February.

US mortgage applications dropped 10.9% in the week ending March 13, 2026, marking the sharpest decline since September 2025, as borrowing costs climbed to their highest level since late last year and dampened refinancing activity. The average rate on 30 year fixed mortgages with conforming loan balances up to $832,750 rose by 11 basis points to 6.30%. Rising Treasury yields, partly driven by elevated oil prices and inflation risks linked to the Middle East conflict, pushed mortgage rates higher across the board, according to MBA economist Joel Kan. Refinancing applications fell sharply by 18.5%, while applications for home purchases edged up 0.9%.