The dollar index traded near 98 on Wednesday, hovering at six-week lows as hopes for a diplomatic solution to the Middle East conflict dampened safe-haven demand for the currency. The move has nearly wiped out all the gains made since the Iran war began. The US and Iran are reportedly preparing for a second round of peace talks before the current two-week ceasefire expires, even as rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to exacerbate global energy risks. Oil prices pulled back sharply, easing concerns over inflation and potential central bank rate hikes. The Federal Reserve is now widely expected to keep rates unchanged for the remainder of the year, with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee suggesting that rate cuts could be delayed until 2027 depending on how persistently high oil prices remain. Meanwhile, markets will focus on upcoming data including import and export price indexes, alongside the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and the NAHB Housing Market Index.

The Reuters Tankan index for Japanese manufacturers fell to 7.0 in April 2026, down sharply from 18.0 in the previous month, marking the biggest monthly drop since January 2023 and the first decline in three months. The latest reading pointed to a clear deterioration in business sentiment, as surging oil prices and supply-chain disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict drove up input costs and weighed on operations. Lingering uncertainty over global trade conditions, alongside currency volatility, including a weaker yen, further clouded the outlook. As a result, firms have turned more cautious, scaling back expectations for production and capital spending in the months ahead.

Gold traded above $4,800 an ounce on Wednesday after rising about 2% in the previous session, supported by hopes that the US and Iran can strike a deal to end the conflict, easing fears of an energy-led inflation shock. Washington and Tehran are reportedly working to schedule a second round of peace talks in the coming days after last weekend’s negotiations collapsed. The US is continuing its naval blockade of Iranian oil exports in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran is considering a temporary suspension of shipments through the route to help advance a potential agreement. Meanwhile, crude oil retreated below $90 per barrel and the dollar index slipped to a six-week low, lending further support to gold. Markets have also dialed back hawkish expectations for monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve adopting a wait-and-see stance as it evaluates inflation risks.

WTI crude futures dropped toward $90 per barrel on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session as investors anticipated a second round of peace negotiations between the US and Iran before the two-week ceasefire lapses. President Donald Trump reportedly indicated talks could restart “within the next two days” in Pakistan after last weekend’s discussions broke down. The US continues to enforce a naval blockade on Iranian oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran is weighing a temporary halt in shipments via the corridor to support progress toward a deal. Meanwhile, the IEA expects global oil demand to decline this year for the first time since the 2020 pandemic, as elevated prices curb consumption. Separately, the API reported that US crude inventories increased by 6.1 million barrels last week, marking the eighth straight build.

South Korea’s import prices rose sharply by 18.4% year-on-year in March 2026, accelerating from a 1.6% increase in February (previously estimated at 1.2%). This marks the fastest growth since October 2022. On a monthly basis, import prices surged 16.1%, the strongest gain since January 1998, reflecting broad-based cost pressures as the Iran war pushes up oil prices and weakens the won. Price increases were led by a jump in raw materials (40.0% vs. -3.5% in February), including crude and other mining products. Oil-linked products such as naphtha and jet fuel also rose sharply. Intermediate goods also increased (13.2% vs. 4.8%), as did consumer goods (3.3% vs. 2.5%), while capital goods were unchanged (1.5% vs. 1.5%).

United States crude oil inventories jumped by 6.10 million barrels in the week ended April 10th 2026, accelerating from a 3.72 million barrel increase in the previous week and marking a second consecutive build in stockpiles, pointing to renewed inventory accumulation amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and volatile global supply expectations.