The headline inflation rate in Canada fell to 1.8% in February of 2026 from 2.3% in the previous month, slightly under market expectations of 1.9% to reflect the softest rate since July of the previous year. Price growth remained in line with the baseline expectations from the Bank of Canada that inflation would remain near the 2% mark in the near term, although the Bank's outlook and the data preceded the outbreak of war in Iran that triggered a surge in global energy prices, and those of other selected commodities. February's drop reflected base effects from the end of tax breaks in February of 2025, driving food inflation to slow to 5.3% from 7.3% last month. Prices also decelerated for recreation and education (0.5% vs 1% in January), household operations (1.2% vs 2.5%), and shelter (1.5% vs 1.7%), while transportation deflation slowed (-0.8% vs -1.7%). Meanwhile, core rates tracked by the BoC eased more than expected, with the trimmed-mean rate falling to a four-year low of 2.3%.

Industrial production in the United States increased 0.2% month-over-month in February 2026, more than market expectations of 0.1% and after moving up 0.7% in January. Manufacturing output, which makes up about 78% of total industrial production, rose 0.2% after a 0.8% advance in January and also above forecast of 0.1%. Also, mining output increased 0.8%, following a 0.9% increase. On the other hand, the output of utilities fell 0.6%, reflecting no change in the index for electric utilities and a 4.7% drop in the index for natural gas utilities. Capacity utilization remained unchanged at 76.3%, a rate that is 3.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2025) average.

WTI crude oil futures dropped more than 3% to $95.3 per barrel on Monday, halting a three-day rally of 17.4%, as concerns over a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure eased, after a Pakistani oil tanker and two LPG vessels successfully crossed the chokepoint over the weekend. India is negotiating to move six more vessels, while the US has allowed Iranian tankers to transit, helping maintain global supply. Tanker traffic had plunged as Iran targeted commercial ships, but the country continues to export around 1.5 million barrels per day despite a strong US Navy presence. President Trump is urging nations relying on the Strait to help protect shipments, a vital route that previously handled 20% of global oil. The war has caused the largest oil supply disruption in history, with Fujairah hit again by a drone attack halting exports and Iran continuing attacks in the Persian Gulf, forcing flight suspensions in Dubai.

The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index in the US fell to -0.2 in March 2026 from 7.1 in February, well below forecasts of 3.2. The reading showed that manufacturing activity held steady in the New York State in March. New orders increased modestly (6.4 vs 5.8), while shipments declined (-6.9 vs -1). Unfilled orders rose (10.8 vs 9.1), delivery times lengthened (13.7 vs 4), and supply availability was slightly worse (-3.9 vs -1). Also, inventories increased (6.9 vs 7.1), employment rose modestly (5.8 vs 4) and the average workweek edged up (1.9 vs 2.1). The pace of input price increases declined significantly but remained elevated (36.6 vs 49.1), while the pace of selling price increases was little changed (21.4 vs 22.2). Meanwhile, firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve in the months ahead (31 vs 34.7), and capital spending plans strengthened (21.6 vs 18.2).

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note edged down about 4 bps to 4.24% on Monday, easing after a 15 bps surge to more than four-week highs last week, as traders continue to assess the conflict with Iran and its impact on inflation and the fiscal outlook. Oil prices eased after Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US is allowing Iranian oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz, while President Trump is urging other nations to help ensure the waterway remains open. Still, uncertainty persists over when the conflict could end. The US says it is in talks with Iran, although Tehran has denied claims that it is seeking a truce. Meanwhile, the Fed will announce its monetary policy decision later this week. While no change to the federal funds rate is expected, investors will closely watch policymakers’ assessment of the recent spike in energy prices and its impact on inflation and borrowing costs. Markets are currently pricing in only one 25bps rate cut, likely not before December.

China’s industrial production rose 6.3% yoy in the combined January–February period of 2026, accelerating from a 5.2% growth in December and exceeding market expectations of 5.1%. Activity strengthened across major sectors, including mining (6.1% vs 5.4% in December), manufacturing (6.6% vs 5.7%), and utilities—electricity, heat, gas, and water—(4.7% vs 0.8%). Within manufacturing, 35 of 41 major industries posted increases, including computers and communications equipment (14.2%), railway and shipbuilding (13.7%), general equipment (8.9%), special equipment (8.8%), electrical machinery (8.7%), chemicals (7.6%), coal mining and washing (7.2%), agriculture, food processing (6.1%), oil and gas (5.8%), textiles (5.3%), electricity and heat production (5.1%), non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling (3.9%), automotive (3.4%), non-metallic mineral products (2.5%), and ferrous metal smelting and rolling (2.2%). Monthly, industrial output increased 0.83%. In 2025, production grew 5.9%.