The South African economy rose by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, following a downwardly revised 0.3% growth in Q3 and slightly above analysts' forecasts of 0.3%. This marked the fifth straight quarter of expansion, with growth recorded in five of the ten industries. The finance sector led the gains, rising 1.4% and contributing 0.3 percentage points to GDP. Trade increased 0.9% and personal services grew 0.4%. In contrast, manufacturing was the largest drag, falling 0.6%. From the demand side, household consumption (+1.2%), government spending (+0.5%) and fixed investment (1.3%) helped sustain positive momentum. However, inventories (-0.5 points) and net exports (-0.3 points) weighed on GDP, with exports down 0.6% and imports up 0.5%. On an annual basis, the economy grew 0.8% in Q4, down from a 2.1% increase in Q3 and below forecasts of 1.8%. For the full year 2025, GDP rose 1.1%, the strongest growth since 2022, following a revised increase of 0.5% in 2024.

European stocks moved higher on Tuesday, with the STOXX 50 rising 2.4% and the STOXX 600 gaining 1.8%, marking their first advances in three and four sessions, respectively, amid hopes that the conflict with Iran could soon come to an end. US President Trump said the military operation in Iran may conclude soon and is progressing well ahead of the initially projected four- to five-week timeline. Meanwhile, oil prices fell below $100 per barrel after President Trump hinted at several measures aimed at keeping energy prices under control. All sectors traded in positive territory, led by technology and financial stocks. ASML Holding climbed 4.5%, HSBC Holdings advanced 2.9%, Hermes gained 2.3%, Siemens rose 3.3%, and Banco Santander jumped 4.4%. Also, Volkswagen shares added 2.7% after the company said it expects profitability to improve this year. Hugo Boss surged 5.1% after reporting fourth-quarter profit and sales that exceeded market expectations.

France’s trade deficit narrowed sharply to €1.8 billion in January 2026, from a revised €4.3 billion in December and well below the expected €4.6 billion gap. This marked the smallest deficit since July 2009, as exports rose 0.7% month-on-month to €53.4 billion, supported by gains in transport equipment (+0.8%), natural hydrocarbons and electricity (+16.2%), and publishing and communication products (+43.3%). By region, exports increased to the European Union (+3.8%), Europe outside the EU (+0.2%), and the Americas (+0.2%), but declined to Asia (-5.8%), Africa (-5.1%), and the Middle East (-36.9%). Meanwhile, imports fell 3.6% to €55.3 billion, driven by lower purchases of transport equipment (-9.6%), natural hydrocarbons and electricity (-10.6%), and other industrial products (-2.2%). Purchases declined from most regions, including Asia (-6.7%), Europe outside the EU (-6.1%), the Americas (-3.9%), and Africa (-17.0%), while imports from the EU edged down slightly (-0.6%).

Germany’s exports fell 2.3% month-on-month to €130.5 billion in January 2026, reversing a downwardly revised 3.9% increase in December and performing worse than market expectations of a 2% decline. Shipments to EU member states dropped 4.8%, with exports to the Eurozone falling 5.7% and those to non-Eurozone declining 2.7%. In contrast, exports to third countries rose 1%, supported by an 11.7% surge in shipments to the United States, Germany’s largest export market. Exports to the United Kingdom fell 2.6%, while shipments to China plunged 13.2% and those to the Russian Federation declined 5.9%.

European natural gas futures declined more than 13% to below €50/MWh on Tuesday, retreating from a three-year high after President Trump suggested that the Iran war could end soon, easing turmoil in global oil markets. The G-7 finance ministers also indicated they are prepared to release strategic oil reserves if necessary. Still, uncertainty remains, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed, and operations in Qatar, one of the world’s largest exporters of LNG, have been suspended. Analysts cautioned that production halt in Qatar could erase most of the global LNG supply surplus projected in 2026. These disruptions pose significant risks to Europe, which has become increasingly reliant on LNG imports after reducing pipeline gas dependence on Russia. Gas storage levels across the continent are currently below 30%, heightening vulnerability. Early signs of regional supply constraints are also emerging, with Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria region warning of short supply.

China’s exports jumped 21.8% year-on-year to USD 656.58 billion in January–February 2026, accelerating sharply from a 6.6% rise in December and easily surpassing market forecasts of 7.1%. The surge marked the fastest growth in outbound shipments since October 2021, supported by firm global demand and a strong start to the year. Sales increased to Japan (8.9%), Hong Kong (38.7%), South Korea (27.0%), Taiwan (28.7%), Australia (29.4%), the ASEAN countries (29.4%), and the EU (27.8%), but shrank to the U.S. (-11.0%). Sales of refined oil products, including diesel, gasoline, aviation fuel, and marine fuel, rose 12.7% to 8.13 million tons. President Trump’s renewed 2025 tariffs barely slowed China’s industrial momentum, as manufacturers redirected exports to Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America to offset the impact of U.S. tariffs. Meanwhile, analysts noted that China’s resilient exports and lower 2026 GDP growth target could delay the rollout of economic stimulus.