China Import Growth at 5-Month Low

China’s imports soared 19.8% yoy to USD 442.96 billion in the first two months of 2026, far above market expectations of 6.3% and after a 5.7% increase in the prior month. It was the strongest pace of purchases since early 2022, boosted by solid domestic demand during the festive season. Imports grew from Japan (26.5%), Hong Kong (322.9%), South Korea (35.8%), Taiwan (19.2%), ASEAN (12.9%), and the EU (11.7%), but fell from the U.S. (-26.7%). Crude oil imports jumped 15.8% to 96.93 million metric tons, as refiners kept throughput high and boosted stockpiles. Imports of copper concentrates and ores rose 4.9% to 4.93 million tons, while coal purchases added 1.5% to 77.22 million metric tons. In contrast, arrivals of unwrought copper fell 16.1% to 700,000 tons. Natural gas imports dropped 1.1% to 20.02 million tons. This year, imports are expected to grow modestly, helped by policy support aimed at boosting consumption, though property weakness and trade tensions may cap growth.

China’s imports rose 5.7% yoy to the highest in nearly four years of USD 243.64 billion in December 2025, picking up from a 1.9% gain in the previous month and easily surpassing market forecasts of 0.9%. It was the seventh straight monthly increase and the fastest pace since September, underscoring resilient year-end demand amid Beijing’s policy support and pre-Lunar New Year restocking. For 2025 as a whole, imports stalled at USD 2.58 trillion, with stronger demand from Japan (5.5%), Hong Kong (72.6%), Taiwan (6.0%), South Korea (3.1%), and India (9.7%) offsetting declines from the U.S. (-14.6%), ASEAN (-1.6%), the EU (-0.4%), and Russia (-3.9%). By product, import values rose for automatic data equipment (18.2%), high-tech goods (9.3%), and integrated circuits (10.1%), but fell for refined oil (-18.2%), natural gas (-13.0%), steel (-10.7%), and coal & lignite (-30.6%). Purchases in 2026 are expected to remain modest, hinging on domestic demand, policy support, and global trade ties.

China’s imports rose 1.9% yoy to USD 218.7 billion in November 2025, accelerating from 1.0% in the prior month and marking the sixth consecutive month of growth. A trade truce with the U.S. reached during the month may have boosted buying activity, but growth still lagged the 2.8% forecast, reflecting weak labor market conditions, soft consumer confidence, and cautious business spending. Over the first ten months of the year, imports fell 0.6% to USD 2.34 trillion, weighed down by weaker demand from the U.S. (-13.2%), the ASEAN countries (-1.2%), the EU (-2.1%), and Russia (-5.9%). During the period, import values of refined oil (-19.3%), natural gas (-14.3%), steel (-10.9%), and coal & lignite (-33.5%) dropped, while automatic data equipment (18.2%), high-tech products (8.8%), and integrated circuits (9.2%) rose. Purchases in 2026 are expected to remain modest, with growth hinging on domestic demand, policy support, and global trade relations.