Indonesia 2024 GDP Growth Below Official Targets

Indonesia's economy expanded 5.02% yoy in Q4 of 2024, surpassing market estimates of 4.98% and quickening from the slowest rise in a year of 4.95% in Q3.

Private consumption grew slightly faster (4.98% vs 4.91% in Q3), despite moderation in both government spending (4.17% vs 4.62%) and fixed investment (5.03% vs 5.16%).

On the trade front, exports slowed (7.63% vs 8.79%) amid soft global demand, while imports remained resilient (10.36% vs 11.92%).

Production-wise, output accelerated for mining (3.95% vs 3.46%), manufacturing (4.89% vs 4.72%), communication (7.45% vs 6.82%), wholesale and retail trade (5.19% vs 4.82%), real estate (2.97% vs 2.32%), and education (2.95% vs 2.56%).

For the full year, the economy grew by 5.03%, missing the official target of 5.2% and marking the lowest reading in three years.

For 2025, the GDP growth target remains at 5.2%.

However, the central bank recently cut its growth forecast for this year to 4.7%-5.5% from 4.8%-5.6%, citing US tariff disruptions.