Australia’s consumer inflation expectations rose to 5.0% in February 2026 from 4.6% in the previous month, marking the highest level since last June. The jump followed the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to lift the cash rate by 25bps to 3.85% at its first policy meeting of the year, the first rate hike since November 2023. Policymakers pointed to renewed cost pressures that intensified in late 2025, driven by elevated service expenses and a tight labor market. The central bank signaled inflation will remain above its 2–3% target band for an extended period, with both headline and core readings exceeding target and policymakers indicating it will take further action to curb inflation. Projections suggest inflation in Australia may not return within the band until mid-2027. source: Melbourne Institute

Inflation Expectations in Australia increased to 5 percent in February from 4.60 percent in January of 2026. Inflation Expectations in Australia averaged 4.37 percent from 1995 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 8.60 percent in July of 2008 and a record low of 2.80 percent in September of 2013. This page provides - Australia Inflation Expectations- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. Australia Inflation Expectations - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on February of 2026.

Inflation Expectations in Australia increased to 5 percent in February from 4.60 percent in January of 2026. Inflation Expectations in Australia is expected to be 4.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the Australia Inflation Expectations is projected to trend around 2.00 percent in 2027, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-01-15 12:30 AM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Jan 4.6% 4.7% 4.5%
2026-02-12 12:00 AM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Feb 5% 4.6% 4.4%
2026-03-12 12:00 AM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Mar 5% 4.2%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Commodity Prices YoY 2.60 -3.20 percent Jan 2026
CPI 100.97 99.70 points Dec 2025
Core Consumer Prices 105.48 105.24 points Dec 2025
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY 3.30 3.20 percent Dec 2025
CPI Housing Utilities 100.42 100.28 points Dec 2025
CPI Transportation 100.62 100.58 points Dec 2025
Export Prices 157.80 152.90 points Dec 2025
Export Prices 3.20 -0.90 percent Dec 2025
Food Inflation 3.40 3.30 percent Dec 2025
GDP Chain Price Index 103.40 102.60 points Sep 2025
GDP Deflator 104.30 102.90 points Sep 2025
Import Prices 135.40 134.20 points Dec 2025
Import Prices 0.90 -0.40 percent Dec 2025
Consumer Inflation Expectations 5.00 4.60 percent Feb 2026
Inflation Rate YoY 3.80 3.40 percent Dec 2025
Inflation Rate MoM 1.00 0.00 percent Dec 2025
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM 0.20 1.00 percent Jan 2026
PPI 0.80 1.00 percent Dec 2025
Producer Prices 137.70 136.60 points Dec 2025
PPI YoY 3.50 3.50 percent Dec 2025
Rent Inflation 3.90 4.00 percent Dec 2025
Services Inflation 4.10 3.60 percent Dec 2025
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ 0.90 1.00 percent Dec 2025
RBA Weighted Median CPI 0.20 0.30 percent Dec 2025
RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY 3.60 3.50 percent Dec 2025


Australia Inflation Expectations
In Australia, Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations survey measures consumers’ median expectations for price growth over the coming 12 months.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
5.00 4.60 8.60 2.80 1995 - 2026 percent Monthly
NSA

News Stream
Australia Inflation Expectations Climb to 8-Month High
Australia’s consumer inflation expectations rose to 5.0% in February 2026 from 4.6% in the previous month, marking the highest level since last June. The jump followed the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to lift the cash rate by 25bps to 3.85% at its first policy meeting of the year, the first rate hike since November 2023. Policymakers pointed to renewed cost pressures that intensified in late 2025, driven by elevated service expenses and a tight labor market. The central bank signaled inflation will remain above its 2–3% target band for an extended period, with both headline and core readings exceeding target and policymakers indicating it will take further action to curb inflation. Projections suggest inflation in Australia may not return within the band until mid-2027.
2026-02-12
Australia Inflation Expectations Stay Elevated
Australia’s consumer inflation expectations stood at 4.6% in January 2026, little changed from 4.7% in the previous month, signaling households still foresee heightened price pressures. The latest reading followed the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.6% for a third straight meeting in December. During the gathering, policymakers noted inflation has eased sharply from its 2022 peak, though recent data show renewed momentum. Headline CPI slowed to 3.4% yoy in November, the lowest since August, but remained above the RBA’s 2–3% target. Trimmed mean CPI also moderated to 3.2% from October’s eight-month high of 3.3%. Governor Michele Bullock recently highlighted that September-quarter inflation was slightly stronger than expected, with temporary factors at play but signs of persistence across components. The board judged risks to inflation have tilted modestly upward, while downside risks, particularly from overseas, have eased.
2026-01-15
Australia Inflation Expectations Rise from 3-Month Low
Australia’s consumer inflation expectations increased to 4.7% in December 2025 from November’s three-month low of 4.5%, reflecting broader and persistent price pressures. The rise followed the Reserve Bank’s decision earlier this month to hold its cash rate steady at 3.6% for a fourth straight meeting. Governor Michele Bullock recently noted that Q3 inflation was slightly stronger than anticipated, with some temporary drivers but also signs of persistence in certain categories. She highlighted the timing of electricity rebates, which temporarily suppress headline inflation but push it higher once they expire. Meanwhile, annual inflation accelerated to 3.8% in October from 3.6%, the highest in ten months and still above the RBA’s 2–3% target range. Bullock viewed that if inflation proves persistent and fails to return toward the intended corridor, it could raise concerns over financial conditions and prompt the board to consider holding rates steady or eventually lifting them.
2025-12-18