Consumer inflation expectations in Australia fell to 3.9% in August 2025 from 4.7% in July, easing for the second straight month and marking the lowest level since March. The decline underscored a further slowdown in inflation from its 2022 peak alongside signs of a softer labor market. Earlier in the month, the Reserve Bank of Australia unanimously cut its cash rate by 25 bps to 3.6%, the lowest since April 2023, after cumulative reductions of 75 bps since January. In Q1, annual inflation held at 2.4%—a four-year low and unchanged for the third straight quarter—while the trimmed-mean CPI, the RBA’s preferred core gauge, eased to 2.9%, its lowest since late 2021 but still slightly above the 2–3% midpoint target. Meanwhile, June’s monthly CPI rose 1.9% year-on-year, the weakest pace since March 2021. source: Melbourne Institute

Inflation Expectations in Australia decreased to 3.90 percent in August from 4.70 percent in July of 2025. Inflation Expectations in Australia averaged 4.36 percent from 1995 until 2025, reaching an all time high of 8.60 percent in July of 2008 and a record low of 2.80 percent in September of 2013. This page provides - Australia Inflation Expectations- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. Australia Inflation Expectations - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on September of 2025.

Inflation Expectations in Australia decreased to 3.90 percent in August from 4.70 percent in July of 2025. Inflation Expectations in Australia is expected to be 3.90 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the Australia Inflation Expectations is projected to trend around 2.00 percent in 2026, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2025-07-17 01:00 AM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Jul 4.7% 5% 4.7%
2025-08-21 01:30 AM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Aug 3.9% 4.7% 4.4%
2025-09-11 01:00 AM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Sep 3.9% 3.9%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Commodity Prices YoY -4.30 -9.70 percent Aug 2025
CPI 141.70 140.70 points Jun 2025
Core Consumer Prices 140.89 140.05 points Jun 2025
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY 2.70 2.90 percent Jun 2025
CPI Housing Utilities 153.30 151.50 points Jun 2025
CPI Transportation 129.00 129.90 points Jun 2025
Export Prices 154.30 161.60 points Jun 2025
Export Prices -4.50 2.10 percent Jun 2025
Food Inflation 3.00 3.20 percent Jun 2025
GDP Chain Price Index 105.20 105.70 points Jun 2025
GDP Deflator 106.00 106.00 points Jun 2025
Import Prices 134.80 135.90 points Jun 2025
Import Prices -0.80 3.30 percent Jun 2025
Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.90 4.70 percent Aug 2025
Inflation Rate YoY 2.10 2.40 percent Jun 2025
Inflation Rate QoQ 0.70 0.90 percent Jun 2025
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM -0.30 0.90 percent Aug 2025
Monthly CPI Indicator 2.80 1.90 percent Jul 2025
PPI 0.70 0.90 percent Jun 2025
Producer Prices 135.20 134.20 points Jun 2025
PPI YoY 3.40 3.70 percent Jun 2025
Rent Inflation 4.50 5.50 percent Jun 2025
Services Inflation 3.30 3.70 percent Jun 2025
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI 0.60 0.70 percent Jun 2025
RBA Weighted Median CPI 0.60 0.70 percent Jun 2025
RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY 2.70 2.90 percent Jun 2025

Australia Inflation Expectations
In Australia, Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations survey measures consumers’ median expectations for price growth over the coming 12 months.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
3.90 4.70 8.60 2.80 1995 - 2025 percent Monthly
NSA

News Stream
Australia Inflation Expectations Lowest in 5 Months
Consumer inflation expectations in Australia fell to 3.9% in August 2025 from 4.7% in July, easing for the second straight month and marking the lowest level since March. The decline underscored a further slowdown in inflation from its 2022 peak alongside signs of a softer labor market. Earlier in the month, the Reserve Bank of Australia unanimously cut its cash rate by 25 bps to 3.6%, the lowest since April 2023, after cumulative reductions of 75 bps since January. In Q1, annual inflation held at 2.4%—a four-year low and unchanged for the third straight quarter—while the trimmed-mean CPI, the RBA’s preferred core gauge, eased to 2.9%, its lowest since late 2021 but still slightly above the 2–3% midpoint target. Meanwhile, June’s monthly CPI rose 1.9% year-on-year, the weakest pace since March 2021.
2025-08-21
Australia Inflation Expectations Retreat from 2-Year High
Consumer inflation expectations in Australia eased to 4.7% in July 2025 from June’s two-year peak of 5.0%, suggesting a more balanced outlook for inflation risks amid continued labor market strength. Still, it's unclear whether this shift signals a lasting trend. In Q1 2025, annual inflation held steady at 2.4%—a four-year low—unchanged for the third consecutive quarter. Meanwhile, the trimmed-mean CPI, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s preferred core measure, stood at 2.9%, the lowest since late 2021 but still above the RBA’s 2–3% midpoint target. In May, monthly CPI rose 2.1% year-on-year, the softest pace since October 2024. The RBA has signaled it will wait for more data before deciding whether inflation is firmly on track to sustainably return to its 2.5% target.
2025-07-17
Australia Inflation Expectations Highest in 2 Years
Consumer inflation expectations in Australia jumped to 5.0% in June 2025 from 4.1% the previous month, marking the highest level since July 2023. The latest reading suggests that while underlying inflation has returned to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) 2–3% target range, headline inflation is expected to climb toward the upper end of that band as energy subsidies are phased out. Meanwhile, labor and product markets remain tight, keeping pressure on prices. The central bank recently flagged uncertainty around global trade policy, warning that many scenarios could dampen economic activity and inflation, with some potentially having a large impact. Australia's annual inflation held steady at 2.4% in Q1 2025, marking a four-year low and maintaining that level for three straight quarters. However, the trimmed-mean CPI — a key core inflation measure — was at 2.9%, its lowest since late 2021 but still above the RBA’s target midpoint.
2025-06-12