The Bank of Japan’s sentiment index for large manufacturers edged up to 17 in Q1 2026, beating market estimates of 16 and marking the highest level since Q4 2021. The uptick suggested Middle East conflict risks have yet to dent business morale. Confidence strengthened across firms producing pulp (44 vs 40 in Q4), electrical machinery (22 vs 21), processed metals (16 vs 10), general-purpose machinery (34 vs 27), production machinery (26 vs 16), motor vehicles (13 vs 9), and business-oriented machinery (15 vs 9). Meanwhile, sentiment held steady in iron & steel (-15), food & drinks (9), and shipbuilding (35). On the other hand, weaker readings came from textiles (-5 vs -4), lumber & wood (0 vs 7), petroleum (18 vs 36), and chemicals (14 vs 19). Simultaneously, large firms plan to lift capital expenditure by just 3.3% in Q1, sharply down from 12.6% previously and the softest rise since Q1 2023, reflecting high borrowing costs and intensifying geopolitical uncertainty. source: Bank of Japan

Business Confidence in Japan increased to 17 points in the first quarter of 2026 from 16 points in the fourth quarter of 2025. Business Confidence in Japan averaged 2.26 points from 1983 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 53 points in the second quarter of 1989 and a record low of -58 points in the first quarter of 2009. This page provides - Japan Business Confidence - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. Japan Business Confidence - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on April of 2026.

Business Confidence in Japan increased to 17 points in the first quarter of 2026 from 16 points in the fourth quarter of 2025. Business Confidence in Japan is expected to be 13.00 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the Japan Business Confidence is projected to trend around 16.00 points in 2027 and 18.00 points in 2028, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2025-12-14 11:50 PM
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
Q4 15 14 15 15
2026-03-31 11:50 PM
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
Q1 17 16 16 14
2026-06-30 11:50 PM
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
Q2 17 13

Components Last Previous Unit Reference
Tankan Large All Industry Capex 3.30 12.60 percent Mar 2026
Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook 14.00 15.00 points Mar 2026

Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 17.00 16.00 points Mar 2026
Tankan Small Manufacturers Index 7.00 6.00 points Mar 2026
Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook 29.00 28.00 points Mar 2026


Japan Business Confidence
In Japan, the quarterly Tankan Index of Sentiment at Large Manufacturers covers about 1,100 companies with capital over 1 billion Yen. The survey is done by mail or e-mail and asks participants to evaluate current trends and conditions in the business place and their respective industries as well as their expected business activities for the next quarter and year. The indicator is calculated by subtracting the percentage share of enterprises responding on the negative side from the share giving positive assessments. The index varies on a scale of -100 to 100 such that a value above zero indicates business optimism, a value below zero pessimism and 0 indicates neutrality.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
17.00 16.00 53.00 -58.00 1983 - 2026 points Quarterly

News Stream
Japan Q1 Business Mood Inches Higher
The Bank of Japan’s sentiment index for large manufacturers edged up to 17 in Q1 2026, beating market estimates of 16 and marking the highest level since Q4 2021. The uptick suggested Middle East conflict risks have yet to dent business morale. Confidence strengthened across firms producing pulp (44 vs 40 in Q4), electrical machinery (22 vs 21), processed metals (16 vs 10), general-purpose machinery (34 vs 27), production machinery (26 vs 16), motor vehicles (13 vs 9), and business-oriented machinery (15 vs 9). Meanwhile, sentiment held steady in iron & steel (-15), food & drinks (9), and shipbuilding (35). On the other hand, weaker readings came from textiles (-5 vs -4), lumber & wood (0 vs 7), petroleum (18 vs 36), and chemicals (14 vs 19). Simultaneously, large firms plan to lift capital expenditure by just 3.3% in Q1, sharply down from 12.6% previously and the softest rise since Q1 2023, reflecting high borrowing costs and intensifying geopolitical uncertainty.
2026-04-01
Japan Q4 Business Mood Hits 4-Year High
The Bank of Japan’s sentiment index for large manufacturers edged up to 15 in Q4 2025 from 14 in Q3, improving for a third quarter and marking the highest print since Q4 2021, amid the yen’s sustained weakness and firm global demand, notably from the AI sector. The latest reading matched market estimates, with confidence remaining upbeat among firms producing lumber & wood (0 vs -8 in Q3), pulp (34 vs 26), petroleum (33 vs 0), iron & steel (-11 vs -14), food & drinks (9 vs 6), chemicals (22 vs 15), electrical machinery (17 vs 16), shipbuilding (41 vs 36), and processed metals (8 vs 0). At the same time, sentiment stayed stable for textiles (at 4), general-purpose machinery (at 27), and production machinery (at 17), but fell for motor vehicles (9 vs 10), and business-oriented machinery (13 vs 22). Large firms planned to lift capital expenditure by 12.6% in Q4, after a 12.5% rise in Q3, topping forecasts of 12%. This was the strongest rise in investment intentions in eight quarters.
2025-12-15
Japan Q3 Business Sentiment Hits 3-Quarter High
The Bank of Japan’s index for large manufacturers edged up to 14 in Q3 2025 from 13 in Q2, improving for the second straight quarter and marking the highest reading since Q4 2024, as a trade deal between Tokyo and Washington soothed concerns about U.S. tariffs. However, the latest result was below the market consensus of 15. Confidence was upbeat among firms producing textiles (4 vs 0 in Q2), chemicals (15 vs 14), ceramics, stone & clay (30 vs 17), general-purpose machinery (27 vs 23), production machinery (17 vs 15), electrical machinery (16 vs 11), shipbuilding & heavy machinery (36 vs 27), processed metals (0 vs -3), and motor vehicles (10 vs 8). At the same time, sentiment remained stable for business-oriented machinery (at 22) but fell for lumber & wood (-8 vs 0), petroleum and coal (0 vs 9), and iron & steel (-14 vs -3). Meanwhile, large firms planned to increase capital expenditure by 12.5% in Q3, after a 11.5% growth in Q1 and pointing to the strongest rise in seven quarters.
2025-10-01