Germany Inflation Slips Below ECB Target

Germany’s annual inflation rate rose to 2.1% in January 2026, up from December’s 15-month low of 1.8% and slightly above market expectations of 2.0%, according to a preliminary estimate. The harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP), the measure closely watched by the ECB, also increased to 2.1%, leaving both readings near the central bank’s 2% target. Goods inflation accelerated to 1.0% from 0.4%, largely reflecting a sharp rise in food prices (2.1% vs 0.8%). This came despite a deeper decline in energy costs (-1.7% vs -1.3%). Meanwhile, services inflation eased to 3.2% from 3.5%, offering some relief on underlying price pressures. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, ticked up to 2.5% from 2.4%, after hitting its lowest level in more than four years in December.

Germany’s annual inflation rate fell to 1.8% in December 2025, matching flash estimates and down from 2.3% in November. The reading fell below the European Central Bank’s 2% target midpoint for the first time since September 2024, marking the lowest inflation rate in 15 months. Goods inflation eased sharply, slowing to 0.4% from 1.1% in November, due to softer increases in food prices (0.8% vs 1.2%) and a deeper decline in energy prices (-1.3% vs -0.1%), led by lower prices for heating oil (-3.6%) and electricity (-1.8%). In contrast, services inflation remained elevated and unchanged at 3.5%, driven by sharp increases in passenger transport (11.4%) and social services (7.7%). Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell to 2.4%, its lowest level since June 2021. Meanwhile, the EU-harmonized CPI eased to 2.0% in December, its lowest level since July. For the full year 2025, national inflation averaged 2.2%, while harmonized inflation averaged 2.3%.

Germany’s annual inflation rate fell to 1.8% in December 2025, down from 2.3% in November and below market expectations of 2.0%, according to preliminary data. The reading dropped below the European Central Bank’s 2% target midpoint for the first time since September 2024, marking the second-lowest inflation rate since early 2021. Goods inflation slowed sharply, easing to 0.4% from 1.1% in November, reflecting softer food price growth (0.8% vs. 1.2%) and a deeper decline in energy prices (-1.3% vs. -0.1%). In contrast, services inflation remained stubbornly elevated and unchanged at 3.5%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell to 2.4%, its lowest level since June 2021. Meanwhile, the EU-harmonized CPI eased to 2.0% in December, its lowest level since July and below forecasts of 2.2%. For the full year 2025, national inflation averaged 2.2%, while harmonized inflation averaged 2.3%.