Pakistan | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.24 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.19 2.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.90 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.1 5.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.81 4.5 4.8 4.7 4.5 3.3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.5 4 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -237429.00 -229218 -237839 -237626 -236901 -237114 PKR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 64.80 64.2 64 64 63.8 60.9 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Currency 104.73 106 107 108 109 126 [+]
Stock Market 45153.63 42000 41600 41100 40700 33900 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 8.03 8.11 8.19 8.27 8.35 9.64 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.24 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.19 2.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.24 4.7 4.8 4.9 5 2.8 percent [+]
GDP 269.97 302 305 315 325 386 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 11229656.00 11750000 12300000 12300000 12300000 13800000 PKR Million [+]
Gross National Product 12465443.00 13100000 13700000 13700000 13700000 15400000 PKR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1503731.00 1736925 1797460 1857996 1900000 2500000 PKR Million [+]
GDP per capita 1152.14 1194 1228 1228 1228 1388 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 4744.85 4938 5159 5279 5279 5778 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 2222337.00 2267737 2281414 2295091 2308768 2494195 PKR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 259271.00 270272 285688 287105 287104 312486 PKR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 1412453.00 1439383 1447497 1455611 1463725 1528482 PKR Million [+]
GDP From Mining 311095.00 296026 296236 296447 301012 312961 PKR Million [+]
GDP From Services 6261314.00 6471360 6514758 6558155 6601553 7157902 PKR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 1421737.00 1477320 1491771 1506221 1520672 1726362 PKR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.90 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.1 5.7 percent [+]
Employed Persons 57420.00 58487 58797 59107 59727 63022 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 3620.00 3660 3800 3800 3880 3590 Thousand [+]
Population 189.87 193 194 195 195 206 Million [+]
Living Wage Family 49600.00 52000 53000 54000 55000 64000 PKR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 17600.00 18500 18700 19000 19200 24000 PKR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 43600.00 44000 44100 44500 45000 54000 PKR/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Inflation Rate 3.81 4.5 4.8 4.7 4.5 3.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 212.01 212 213 215 218 236 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 5.30 4.9 5.3 5.2 5 3.7 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 243.85 250 252 252 254 268 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 214.07 214 215 216 217 221 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 702.30 721 722 722 721 740 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 1224.40 1220 1230 1230 1178 1500 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.21 -0.5 0.3 0.3 0 0.2 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 170.65 170 169 169 168 165 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.50 2 2.1 2.1 2.92 1.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.56 4.5 0.7 0.7 1.46 1.61 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Interest Rate 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.5 4 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 5.90 5.95 5.85 5.7 5.5 3.1 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 4166451.87 4134407 4150255 4371023 4580000 6340000 PKR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 10447771.00 10769027 11173954 11594038 12029850 19429122 PKR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 12685007.00 13406737 13529630 14087455 14800000 20000000 PKR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 15966506.00 16500000 16800000 17200000 17400000 21900000 PKR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.00 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.5 4 percent [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 23619.40 25034 25806 26423 28900 46429 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Balance of Trade -237429.00 -229218 -237839 -237626 -236901 -237114 PKR Million [+]
Exports 183660.00 175258 174501 168101 169000 185029 PKR Million [+]
Imports 421089.00 414775 418486 417627 417620 417624 PKR Million [+]
Current Account -1368.00 -570 -741 -593 -300 119 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -1.20 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 0.3 percent [+]
External Debt 72978.00 75538 77095 78222 79348 87053 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 57.40 56.29 56.57 56.78 56.8 49 Index Points [+]
Remittances 4698.00 4687 5204 5269 5700 5029 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 64.51 64.51 64.51 64.51 64.5 64.51 Tonnes [+]
Capital Flows -1319.00 -1661 -290 -1418 -1248 -1298 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 87.00 87.13 87.13 87.13 87 79 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 2677.90 2787 2787 2926 2926 3200 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 8.61 9.3 9.1 9.1 8.52 8.38 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 64.80 64.2 64 64 63.8 60.9 percent [+]
Government Budget -5.30 -4.3 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -1.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -1349300.00 -1408678 -1396851 -1390937 -1385024 -1370124 PKR Million [+]
Government Spending 3242656.00 3558099 3635956 3713813 3791671 4888207 PKR Million [+]
Government Revenues 4446979.00 4113713 4396761 4538285 4679809 5771005 PKR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 9247.70 9690 10165 10164 10165 14539 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 5796302.00 5740696 5968654 6082633 6196612 7409761 [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Industrial Production 1.72 4.7 1.8 5.5 5.1 2.8 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.49 4.1 1.9 6.2 4.7 2.1 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 179674.00 187885 190418 192951 195484 224826 PKR Million [+]
Industrial Production Mom -2.74 0.34 0.41 0.41 0.39 0.35 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.49 3.45 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.8 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 122.00 126 125 125 125 122 [+]
Cement Production 2897.00 3600 3500 3570 3600 4990 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Ease of Doing Business 144.00 137 137 137 138 134 [+]
Electricity Production 7487.00 6727 7253 7211 8420 8362 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 30.00 30 31 31 31 34 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 117.00 117 116 116 116 113 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 174.19 172 168 171 173 180 [+]
Consumer Spending 8584834.00 8990000 9300000 9300000 9300000 10295146 PKR Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.63 0.61 0.65 0.65 0.67 0.98 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Personal Income Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Corporate Tax Rate 32.00 33 33 33 33 32 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Pakistan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Pakistan economy. 12/9/2016