Pakistan | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.24 4.8 4.9 4.17 5.1 2.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.90 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 5.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.66 4.8 4.7 4.5 5.2 3.3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.5 5.5 4 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -309673.00 -281965 -271761 -276808 -275153 -275421 PKR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 64.80 64.28 64 63.8 63.8 60.9 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 104.65 107 108 109 110 126 [+]
Stock Market 49588.30 46500 46000 45500 45100 37900 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 7.59 8.19 8.27 8.35 8 9.64 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.24 4.8 4.9 4.17 5.1 2.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.24 4.8 4.9 5 5.1 2.8 percent [+]
GDP 271.05 305 315 325 328 386 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 11229656.00 12300000 12300000 12300000 12300000 13800000 PKR Million [+]
Gross National Product 12465443.00 13100000 13700000 13700000 13700000 15400000 PKR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1503731.00 1488502 1571310 1900000 1736925 2500000 PKR Million [+]
GDP per capita 1142.70 1228 1228 1228 1228 1388 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 4706.18 5159 5279 5279 5279 5778 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 2222337.00 2227403 2240848 2254292 2267737 2494195 PKR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 259271.00 285688 287105 287104 287104 312486 PKR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 1412453.00 1415188 1423253 1431318 1439383 1528482 PKR Million [+]
GDP From Mining 311095.00 308606 304413 301012 301015 312961 PKR Million [+]
GDP From Services 6261314.00 6295761 6354294 6412827 6471360 7157902 PKR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 1421737.00 1431602 1446842 1462081 1477320 1726362 PKR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.90 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 5.7 percent [+]
Employed Persons 57420.00 58233 58318 59727 58487 63022 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 3620.00 3800 3800 3880 3880 3590 Thousand [+]
Population 193.56 190 191 192 193 206 Million [+]
Living Wage Family 49600.00 52000 53000 54000 55000 64000 PKR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 17600.00 18500 18700 19000 19200 24000 PKR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 43600.00 44100 44500 45000 47000 54000 PKR/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 3.66 4.8 4.7 4.5 5.2 3.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 210.94 210 210 210 210 236 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 5.40 5.3 5.2 5 5.6 3.7 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 243.85 252 252 254 254 268 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 214.84 216 217 218 208 221 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 697.00 722 722 708 726 740 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 1222.40 1230 1230 1179 1410 1500 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.18 0.3 0.3 0 0.1 0.2 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 172.81 172 172 172 171 171 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.43 2.1 2.1 2.63 2.63 1.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 4.15 0.7 0.7 4.02 3.48 3.09 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.5 5.5 4 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 5.98 5.85 5.7 5.5 5.3 3.1 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 4212586.17 4150255 4371023 4580000 4790000 6340000 PKR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 10907480.00 11225311 11573198 11922903 12270734 16277179 PKR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 13300397.00 13604185 13977389 14800000 14744038 20000000 PKR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 16631803.00 16800000 17200000 17400000 17600000 21900000 PKR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.00 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 4 percent [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 23199.60 25806 26423 28900 31429 46429 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -309673.00 -281965 -271761 -276808 -275153 -275421 PKR Million [+]
Exports 186384.00 174501 168101 169000 168099 185029 PKR Million [+]
Imports 496057.00 463440 459319 461522 460107 460577 PKR Million [+]
Current Account -2292.00 -570 -741 -593 -300 119 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -1.20 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 0.3 percent [+]
External Debt 74126.00 75743 76574 77101 77899 82003 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 57.00 56.68 56.91 56.89 52 49 Index Points [+]
Remittances 4760.00 5204 5302 5700 4880 5138 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 64.50 64.5 64.5 64.5 64.5 64.5 Tonnes [+]
Capital Flows -2137.00 -1661 -290 -1418 -1248 -1298 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 87.00 87.13 87.13 87 87 79 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 2761.10 2787 2926 2926 2926 3200 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 8.61 9.1 9.1 8.67 8.7 8.38 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 64.80 64.28 64 63.8 63.8 60.9 percent [+]
Government Budget -5.30 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -1.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -1349300.00 -1402764 -1396851 -1390937 -1385024 -1370124 PKR Million [+]
Government Spending 3242656.00 3150618 3286445 3422272 3558099 4888207 PKR Million [+]
Government Revenues 5293.12 4255237 4396761 4538285 4679809 5771005 PKR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 9247.70 9690 10165 10164 10165 14539 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 5796302.00 5740696 5968654 6082633 6196612 7409761 [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Industrial Production 7.98 1.8 5.5 5.1 5.3 2.8 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 8.02 1.9 6.2 4.7 5.9 2.1 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 179674.00 183077 184680 186283 187885 224826 PKR Million [+]
Industrial Production Mom 5.99 0.54 0.42 0.4 0.39 0.36 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.49 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.8 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 122.00 125 125 125 125 122 [+]
Cement Production 3469.00 3500 3570 3600 3880 4990 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Ease of Doing Business 144.00 137 137 139 137 134 [+]
Electricity Production 11698.00 6880 7211 8420 6446 8362 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 32.00 31 31 31 31 34 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 116.00 117 116 116 116 113 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 174.85 168 171 173 175 180 [+]
Consumer Spending 8584834.00 9300000 9300000 9300000 9300000 10295146 PKR Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.67 0.65 0.65 0.67 0.68 0.98 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Personal Income Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Corporate Tax Rate 32.00 33 33 33 32 32 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Pakistan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Pakistan economy. 2/20/2017