Pakistan | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.24 4.8 4.9 4.17 5.1 2.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.90 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 5.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 4.22 4.2 4.2 3.4 4.7 3.3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.5 5.5 4 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -293929.00 -280934 -293919 -258100 -307214 -365207 PKR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 64.80 64.28 64 63.8 63.8 60.9 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 104.50 106 107 108 110 126 [+]
Stock Market 49016.79 48000 47600 47100 46100 38800 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 8.25 7.67 7.74 7.82 7.89 9.11 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.24 4.8 4.9 4.17 5.1 2.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.71 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 3.7 percent [+]
GDP 271.05 305 315 325 328 386 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 11777594.00 12300000 12300000 12300000 12300000 13800000 PKR Million [+]
Gross National Product 12465443.00 13700000 13700000 13700000 12959163 14442716 PKR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1647268.00 1738400 1738400 1738400 1738400 2160000 PKR Million [+]
GDP per capita 1142.70 1228 1228 1228 1228 1388 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 4706.18 5159 5279 5279 5279 5778 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 2206357.00 2217402 2217402 2217402 2217402 2391000 PKR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 287569.00 315700 315700 315700 315700 394000 PKR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 1513752.00 1600000 1600000 1600000 1600000 1840000 PKR Million [+]
GDP From Mining 331853.00 350000 350000 350000 350000 368000 PKR Million [+]
GDP From Services 6584437.00 6987960 6987960 6987960 6987960 8166570 PKR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 1479021.00 1500000 1500000 1500000 1500000 2000000 PKR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.90 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 5.7 percent [+]
Employed Persons 57420.00 58233 58318 59727 58487 63022 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 3620.00 3800 3800 3880 3880 4070 Thousand [+]
Population 193.56 196 196 196 196 206 Million [+]
Wages High Skilled 43600.00 44100 44500 45000 47000 54000 PKR/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 30447.80 31000 31000 32000 32000 38000 PKR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 16967.10 18700 18000 18200 18400 24000 PKR/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 4.22 4.2 4.2 3.4 4.7 3.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 211.54 211 211 212 212 236 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 5.30 5.3 5.2 5 5.6 3.7 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 243.85 252 252 254 254 268 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 215.86 217 220 223 225 253 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 697.00 705 708 711 715 740 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 1222.40 1230 1230 1179 1410 1500 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 5.27 0.7 0.7 5.17 4.38 3.66 percent [+]
Food Inflation 3.10 2.1 2.1 2.85 2.87 1.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.28 0.3 0.3 0 0.1 0.2 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 174.75 176 178 180 183 206 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.5 5.5 4 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 5.90 5.85 5.7 5.5 5.3 3.1 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 4260951.46 4150255 4371023 4580000 4790000 6340000 PKR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 10823120.00 11104811 11406583 11723055 12040134 15694872 PKR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 13065524.00 13445310 13745192 14800000 14422714 20000000 PKR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 16420072.00 16800000 17200000 17400000 17600000 21900000 PKR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.00 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 4 percent [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 22241.80 25806 26423 28900 31429 46429 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -293929.00 -280934 -293919 -258100 -307214 -365207 PKR Million [+]
Exports 171511.00 185933 183033 169358 186326 201109 PKR Million [+]
Imports 465440.00 466866 476952 427458 493540 566315 PKR Million [+]
Current Account -2292.00 -570 -1110 -1800 -2100 -980 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -1.20 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -0.8 percent [+]
External Debt 74126.00 75743 76574 77101 77899 82003 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 57.00 60 62 63 65 86 Index Points [+]
Remittances 4760.00 5204 5302 5700 4880 5138 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 64.50 64.5 64.5 64.5 64.5 64.5 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 8.61 9.1 9.1 8.67 8.7 8.38 [+]
Capital Flows -2137.00 -200 -2100 -1600 -1850 -980 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 87.00 87.13 87.13 87 87 79 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 2761.10 2787 2926 2926 2926 3200 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 64.80 64.28 64 63.8 63.8 60.9 percent [+]
Government Budget -5.30 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -1.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -1349300.00 -1402764 -1396851 -1390937 -1385024 -1370124 PKR Million [+]
Government Spending 1405639.00 1624000 1624000 1624000 1624000 1898000 PKR Million [+]
Government Revenues 5293.12 4255237 4396761 4538285 4679809 5771005 PKR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 5796302.00 5740696 5968654 6082633 6196612 7409761 [+]
Military Expenditure 9247.70 10165 10164 10165 10165 14539 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Industrial Production 1.29 1.8 5.5 5.1 5.3 2.8 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.10 1.9 6.2 4.7 5.9 2.1 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 188442.00 196000 196000 196000 196000 221000 PKR Million [+]
Industrial Production Mom -2.07 4 0.3 -2.8 -2.1 -0.8 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.49 3.49 3.49 3.49 3.49 3.8 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 122.00 122 122 122 122 110 [+]
Cement Production 2947.00 3500 3570 3600 3880 4990 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Ease of Doing Business 144.00 137 137 139 137 134 [+]
Electricity Production 11698.00 8280 12500 10800 8445 12300 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 32.00 31 31 31 31 34 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 116.00 116 116 116 116 113 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 174.85 168 171 173 175 180 [+]
Consumer Spending 9167259.00 9300000 9300000 9300000 9300000 10295146 PKR Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.67 0.68 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.98 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 32.00 32 32 32 32 32 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Pakistan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Pakistan economy. 3/23/2017