Iceland | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.70 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.01 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 2.90 2.8 3.2 3.6 2.96 4.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.10 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.8 2.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 5.25 5.25 5 5 5 3.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -12300.00 -9330 -9430 -9430 -8010 -4110 ISK Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 68.50 65.22 64.8 64.39 63.98 70.88 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Currency 110.34 113 115 116 117 135 [+]
Stock Market 1223.34 1200 1190 1180 1170 971 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 5.14 5.3 5.36 5.41 5.46 6.3 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.70 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.01 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 10.20 8.5 7.6 6.2 4.1 2.7 percent [+]
GDP 16.60 16.68 16.72 16.74 16.33 21.65 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 326042.00 326583 330230 332325 333261 357521 ISK Million [+]
Gross National Product 1232150.00 1248481 1250976 1253471 1255967 1238987 ISK Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 66795.00 65968 63349 65899 66736 72008 ISK Million [+]
GDP per capita 45411.04 46537 46638 46739 46839 48307 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 42449.19 43562 43680 43798 43916 45466 USD [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.90 2.8 3.2 3.6 2.96 4.4 percent [+]
Employed Persons 193800.00 194228 195162 195955 196664 201239 [+]
Unemployed Persons 5800.00 5969 5924 5923 5924 5925 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 83.20 83.36 83.33 83.35 83.35 83.35 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 6.60 6.43 6.45 6.45 6.45 6.45 percent [+]
Job Vacancies 357.00 344 326 342 349 345 [+]
Wages 553000.00 576885 581848 586810 591773 588699 ISK/Month [+]
Wage Growth 8.50 7.89 7.19 6.54 5.95 2.38 percent [+]
Population 0.33 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 67.00 67 67 67 67 67 [+]
Retirement Age Men 67.00 67 67 67 67 67 [+]
Employment Rate 80.80 81.03 81 81 81 81 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 141.80 129 128 142 143 131 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 39.40 45.8 47.45 40.26 38.64 44.25 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Inflation Rate 2.10 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.8 2.7 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 100.30 99.94 99.91 99.85 99.8 99.27 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 438.40 439 440 442 443 460 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 246.90 247 248 249 251 261 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.10 2.15 2.12 2.14 2.13 2.13 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 171.98 181 182 184 186 207 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 191.80 191 191 191 191 191 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 216.01 216 217 218 219 222 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 236.74 229 228 226 225 218 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 155.92 155 155 155 155 155 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.10 0.1 0 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.15 0.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change -5.80 -4.2 -2.9 -1.7 -0.5 1.5 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Interest Rate 5.25 5.25 5 5 5 3.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 5.60 5.62 5.58 5.57 5.57 5.57 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 50100.79 54394 52158 53263 53906 66531 ISK Million [+]
Money Supply M1 458715.03 82590 19809 8758 6453 2001 ISK Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 973698.95 159027 61410 49280 47455 42197 ISK Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 1652253.43 237032 67433 46577 43731 38903 ISK Billion [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 3287748.00 3032190 2856542 2722351 2617964 2073970 ISK Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 798887.38 805941 807405 806682 806404 806112 ISK Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 4.85 4.33 4.54 4.75 4.96 5.76 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 937774.08 951274 950617 950652 950670 950670 ISK Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 323.51 307 306 304 303 299 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Balance of Trade -12300.00 -9330 -9430 -9430 -8010 -4110 ISK Million [+]
Exports 41200.00 45094 45463 44672 44575 44564 ISK Million [+]
Imports 53500.00 52115 53033 53128 53133 53132 ISK Million [+]
Current Account 100.40 11.03 32.39 21.2 22.52 21.29 ISK Billion [+]
Current Account to GDP 4.20 3.4 2.9 2.9 0.49 2.5 percent [+]
External Debt 3069611.00 -1177969 -1318039 -3198301 -3195474 -4237704 ISK Million [+]
Capital Flows 27.86 14.2 79.75 67.61 35.27 59.26 ISK Billion [+]
Gold Reserves 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -87880.00 21738 -13986 -20653 30214 -2223 ISK Million [+]
Terrorism Index 0.25 1.02 0.86 0.71 0.55 0.81 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 158542.00 128147 133512 147361 141979 141501 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 68.50 65.22 64.8 64.39 63.98 70.88 percent [+]
Government Budget -0.50 -1.1 -1.29 -1.49 -1.68 -2.09 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 30992.00 8009 2640 3824 3560 3631 ISK Million [+]
Government Spending 69946.00 70881 67312 70314 67740 70588 ISK Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 42.70 44.22 44.18 44.15 44.11 44.23 percent [+]
Government Revenues 78663.00 66538 54781 62155 57498 59332 ISK Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 47671.00 55394 55379 55380 55380 55380 ISK Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Changes in Inventories -9130.00 -5292 10477 -6362 2876 -2222 ISK Million [+]
Car Registrations 1324.00 1765 2005 1921 1896 1909 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.96 4.89 4.89 4.89 4.89 4.94 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 27.00 27.74 27.74 27.74 27.74 22.45 [+]
Bankruptcies 60.00 74.18 92.89 75.76 71.56 71.61 companies [+]
Corruption Index 79.00 80.49 80.67 80.85 81.04 83.05 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 13.00 15.52 15.99 16.46 16.93 23.49 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 20.00 17.31 17.88 18.16 18.44 16.79 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 144.30 141 140 140 140 140 [+]
Consumer Spending 169896.00 179986 164838 180591 165356 193541 ISK Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 2949.10 3091 3110 3128 3147 3579 ISK Thousand [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.66 1.66 1.67 1.68 1.68 1.68 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Housing Index 353.70 357 372 382 392 437 Index Points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 77.80 77.4 77.35 77.3 77.25 77.03 percent [+]
Housing Starts 1612.00 1216 1357 1498 1505 1429 units [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 46.30 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 24.00 24 24 24 24 24 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 11.35 11.35 11.35 11.35 11.35 11.35 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00 4 4 4 4 4 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Iceland including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Iceland economy. 12/7/2016