Iceland | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Iceland including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Iceland economy.

Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.60 0.8 1 0.7 0.6 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.10 3.6 3 2.8 3.2 4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.60 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 5.00 5 5 5 5 3.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -16200.00 -9430 -10886 -7480 -10907 -4110 ISK Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 68.50 71.56 68.39 65.22 64.8 70.88 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 109.16 114 115 119 118 136 [+]
Stock Market 1338.62 1280 1270 1230 1240 1030 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 4.82 5 5.05 5.1 5.15 5.94 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.60 0.8 1 0.7 0.6 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 11.30 6.2 4.1 3.8 3.7 2.7 percent [+]
GDP 16.60 16.74 16.51 16.95 16.33 21.65 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 351840.00 362256 368809 372821 376777 401043 ISK Million [+]
Gross National Product 1352143.00 1330781 1367961 1405140 1413070 1454420 ISK Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 67873.00 70344 71456 72423 73131 76514 ISK Million [+]
GDP per capita 45411.04 45194 45754 46314 46349 46619 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 42449.19 42280 42806 43332 43385 43849 USD [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.10 3.6 3 2.8 3.2 4 percent [+]
Employed Persons 192300.00 193620 194110 194537 194912 197026 [+]
Unemployed Persons 7300.00 6874 6701 6748 6751 6746 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 82.70 83.37 83.39 83.4 83.4 83.4 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 8.90 7.52 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 percent [+]
Job Vacancies 279.00 306 309 306 305 305 [+]
Wages 553000.00 555043 565964 576885 581848 588699 ISK/Month [+]
Wage Growth 7.50 7.59 7.57 7.57 7.57 7.57 percent [+]
Population 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.32 0.32 0.33 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 67.00 67 67 67 67 67 [+]
Retirement Age Men 67.00 67 67 67 67 67 [+]
Employment Rate 79.70 81.6 81.5 81.5 80.47 80.4 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 134.70 145 146 137 137 139 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 45.60 40.57 40.18 45.34 45.92 44.37 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.60 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 3 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 98.50 97.99 97.52 97.08 96.67 93.67 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 439.90 442 443 445 446 460 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 247.60 249 250 251 251 259 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.60 1.58 1.54 1.56 1.55 1.55 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 179.66 184 183 183 184 194 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 188.30 193 195 197 199 217 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 194.44 203 198 192 190 176 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 208.16 207 198 189 186 159 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 151.49 150 150 150 150 150 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -1.60 -2.13 -2.21 -2.22 -2.22 -2.22 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.2 0.12 0.3 0.14 0.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change -5.50 -1.7 -0.5 0.2 0.5 2 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 5.00 5 5 5 5 3.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 5.22 5.23 5.24 5.24 5.24 5.24 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 52767.88 52791 52845 52886 52883 52879 ISK Million [+]
Money Supply M1 446.52 207917 123659 200643 146380 167311 ISK Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 953.59 449108 261187 426435 313153 356081 ISK Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 1650.00 757432 440181 714955 528798 598805 ISK Billion [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 3301570.00 3287072 3286686 3286567 3286558 3286559 ISK Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 823982.15 825114 824181 822956 822258 821937 ISK Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 4.85 4.42 4.38 4.33 4.54 5.76 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 937774.08 948361 948367 948366 948366 948366 ISK Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 323.51 306 304 303 303 299 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -16200.00 -9430 -10886 -7480 -10907 -4110 ISK Million [+]
Exports 39500.00 40327 38679 38959 38792 38858 ISK Million [+]
Imports 55700.00 51403 51071 51066 51068 51068 ISK Million [+]
Current Account 44.72 31.9 61.09 53.38 52.69 50.15 ISK Billion [+]
Current Account to GDP 4.20 4.6 4.6 4.6 1.83 4 percent [+]
External Debt 2823222.00 2740996 2818984 2709151 2779539 2703970 ISK Million [+]
Capital Flows 112.57 68.78 120 95.01 87.76 105 ISK Billion [+]
Gold Reserves 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -78286.00 -53149 -26222 -69011 -30980 -52483 ISK Million [+]
Remittances 825.00 269 267 308 285 286 ISK Million [+]
Terrorism Index 0.25 0.68 0.85 1.02 0.86 0.81 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 124780.00 146694 141052 140888 142368 141865 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 68.50 71.56 68.39 65.22 64.8 70.88 percent [+]
Government Budget -0.50 -0.73 -0.91 -1.1 -1.29 -2.09 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -94815.00 -7808 -6955 -7293 -7156 -7186 ISK Million [+]
Government Spending 72166.00 71671 69294 72717 69610 73439 ISK Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 41.20 43.18 42.72 42.26 42.29 42.71 percent [+]
Government Revenues 101348.00 72713 55891 67807 59197 62815 ISK Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 196163.00 71849 70898 71046 71029 71030 ISK Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Changes in Inventories -5158.00 -6511 3072 -4378 7474 -2276 ISK Million [+]
Car Registrations 2711.00 2272 1991 2075 2108 2093 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.96 4.89 4.89 4.89 5.04 5.22 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 27.00 30 30 30 26 25 [+]
Bankruptcies 100.00 76.45 76.48 76.48 76.48 76.48 companies [+]
Corruption Index 78.00 79 79 79 79 79 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 14.00 14 14 14 14 15 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 20.00 20 20 21 20 18 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 129.20 128 128 128 128 128 [+]
Consumer Spending 183054.00 184862 166192 180104 164527 173466 ISK Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 2949.10 2971 3027 3083 3098 3318 ISK Thousand [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.66 1.59 1.56 1.55 1.55 1.55 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 376.50 391 404 415 425 476 Index Points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 77.80 78.03 77.72 77.4 77.35 77.03 percent [+]
Housing Starts 1612.00 1216 1357 1498 1505 1429 units [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 19.99 19.99 19.99 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 46.30 45.62 45.64 45.67 45.5 44.28 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 24.00 24 24 24 24 24 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 11.35 12.54 13.03 13.53 13.75 15.09 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.35 7.2 7.16 7.13 7.08 6.71 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00 4 4 4 4 4 percent [+]