Iceland | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.60 0.9 0.8 1 0.7 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.10 3.2 3.6 3 2.8 4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.60 2.1 2 2.1 2.5 3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 5.00 5 5 5 5 3.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -10900.00 -9430 -9430 -8484 -7480 -4110 ISK Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 68.50 74.73 71.56 68.39 65.22 70.88 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 110.50 107 108 109 112 128 [+]
Stock Market 1311.16 1270 1260 1240 1220 1030 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 4.97 5.02 5.07 5.12 5.17 5.96 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.60 0.9 0.8 1 0.7 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 11.30 7.6 6.2 4.1 4.1 2.7 percent [+]
GDP 16.60 16.72 16.74 16.51 16.95 21.65 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 351840.00 354992 362256 368809 372821 401043 ISK Million [+]
Gross National Product 1352143.00 1293602 1330781 1367961 1405140 1454420 ISK Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 67873.00 69267 70344 71456 72423 76514 ISK Million [+]
GDP per capita 45411.04 44854 45415 45976 46537 48307 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 42449.19 41946 42485 43023 43562 45466 USD [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.10 3.2 3.6 3 2.8 4 percent [+]
Employed Persons 192300.00 193081 193620 194110 194537 197026 [+]
Unemployed Persons 7300.00 6626 6874 6701 6748 6746 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 82.70 83.35 83.37 83.39 83.4 83.4 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 8.90 7.28 7.52 7.46 7.46 7.46 percent [+]
Job Vacancies 350.00 365 393 365 353 357 [+]
Wages 553000.00 544121 555043 565964 576885 588699 ISK/Month [+]
Wage Growth 7.50 6.39 5.74 5.2 4.74 2.11 percent [+]
Population 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.32 0.33 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 67.00 67 67 67 67 67 [+]
Retirement Age Men 67.00 67 67 67 67 67 [+]
Employment Rate 79.70 81.8 81.6 81.5 81.5 80.4 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 134.70 134 145 146 137 139 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 45.60 46.48 40.57 40.18 45.34 44.37 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 1.60 2.1 2 2.1 2.5 3 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 99.10 98.87 98.97 98.68 98.91 98.89 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 439.90 440 442 443 445 460 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 247.60 247 249 250 251 259 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.60 1.59 1.58 1.54 1.56 1.55 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 179.66 184 184 183 183 194 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 191.10 191 193 195 197 210 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 194.44 209 203 198 192 176 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 208.16 215 207 198 189 159 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 151.49 154 150 150 150 150 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -1.60 -0.5 -2.13 -2.21 -2.22 -2.22 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 -0.3 0.2 0.12 0.3 0.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change -5.30 -2.9 -1.7 -0.5 0.2 1.5 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 5.00 5 5 5 5 3.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 5.25 5.26 5.22 5.23 5.23 5.23 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 52767.88 53017 52791 52845 52886 52879 ISK Million [+]
Money Supply M1 446.52 169615 207917 123659 200643 167311 ISK Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 953.59 348039 449108 261187 426435 356081 ISK Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 1650.00 578600 757432 440181 714955 598805 ISK Billion [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 3301570.00 3284094 3287072 3286686 3286567 3286559 ISK Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 810859.34 812245 809362 809417 808650 807726 ISK Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 4.85 4.47 4.42 4.38 4.33 5.76 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 937774.08 950617 950652 950670 950670 950670 ISK Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 323.51 307 306 304 303 299 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -10900.00 -9430 -9430 -8484 -7480 -4110 ISK Million [+]
Exports 31400.00 39300 40267 38587 38873 38770 ISK Million [+]
Imports 42400.00 47298 48153 48307 48335 48340 ISK Million [+]
Current Account 44.72 46.57 31.9 61.09 53.38 50.15 ISK Billion [+]
Current Account to GDP 4.20 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4 percent [+]
External Debt 2823222.00 2909633 2740996 2818984 2709151 2703970 ISK Million [+]
Capital Flows 112.57 138 68.78 120 95.01 105 ISK Billion [+]
Gold Reserves 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -78286.00 -42035 -53149 -26222 -69011 -52483 ISK Million [+]
Remittances 825.00 247 269 267 308 286 ISK Million [+]
Terrorism Index 0.25 0.52 0.68 0.85 1.02 0.81 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 124780.00 128147 133512 147361 141979 141501 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 68.50 74.73 71.56 68.39 65.22 70.88 percent [+]
Government Budget -0.50 -0.54 -0.73 -0.91 -1.1 -2.09 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -94815.00 335 -7808 -6955 -7293 -7186 ISK Million [+]
Government Spending 72166.00 68632 71671 69294 72717 73439 ISK Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 42.70 45.3 44.94 44.58 44.22 44.23 percent [+]
Government Revenues 101348.00 45826 72713 55891 67807 62815 ISK Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 196163.00 63022 71849 70898 71046 71030 ISK Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Changes in Inventories -5158.00 10297 -6511 3072 -4378 -2276 ISK Million [+]
Car Registrations 1757.00 1953 1879 1825 1843 1845 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.96 4.89 4.89 4.89 4.89 4.94 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 27.00 27.74 27.74 27.74 27.74 22.45 [+]
Bankruptcies 100.00 86.34 104 84.76 80.57 80.68 companies [+]
Corruption Index 78.00 79 79 79 79 79 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 14.00 14.14 14.6 15.06 15.52 23.49 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 20.00 17.6 17.88 18.16 18.44 16.79 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 125.80 127 126 126 126 126 [+]
Consumer Spending 183054.00 168887 184862 166192 180104 173466 ISK Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 2949.10 2982 3019 3055 3091 3579 ISK Thousand [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.80 1.84 1.91 1.94 1.95 1.96 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Housing Index 370.30 375 388 400 410 462 Index Points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 77.80 78.35 78.03 77.72 77.4 77.03 percent [+]
Housing Starts 1612.00 1216 1357 1498 1505 1429 units [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 46.30 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 24.00 24 24 24 24 24 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 11.35 11.35 11.35 11.35 11.35 11.35 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00 4 4 4 4 4 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Iceland including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Iceland economy. 3/28/2017