Iceland | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.70 0.9 0.8 1 0.7 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.60 3.2 3.6 3 2.8 4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.90 1.9 2 2.1 2.5 3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 5.00 5 5 5 5 3.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -6700.00 -9430 -9430 -7749 -7480 -4110 ISK Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 68.50 74.73 71.56 68.39 65.22 70.88 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 107.05 116 117 118 119 136 [+]
Stock Market 1259.57 1210 1190 1180 1170 985 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 4.99 5.1 5.15 5.2 5.06 6 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.70 0.9 0.8 1 0.7 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 10.20 7.6 6.2 4.1 4.1 2.7 percent [+]
GDP 16.60 16.72 16.74 16.51 16.95 21.65 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 340852.00 330230 332325 333261 335493 357521 ISK Million [+]
Gross National Product 1232150.00 1179911 1202767 1225624 1248481 1238987 ISK Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 67396.00 63349 65899 66736 67537 72008 ISK Million [+]
GDP per capita 45411.04 44854 45415 45976 46537 48307 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 42449.19 41946 42485 43023 43562 45466 USD [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.60 3.2 3.6 3 2.8 4 percent [+]
Employed Persons 192300.00 193081 193620 194110 194537 197026 [+]
Unemployed Persons 7300.00 6626 6874 6701 6748 6746 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 82.70 83.35 83.37 83.39 83.4 83.4 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 8.90 7.28 7.52 7.46 7.46 7.46 percent [+]
Job Vacancies 234.00 262 312 313 305 304 [+]
Wages 553000.00 544121 555043 565964 576885 588699 ISK/Month [+]
Wage Growth 7.50 6.39 5.74 5.2 4.74 2.11 percent [+]
Population 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.32 0.33 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 67.00 67 67 67 67 67 [+]
Retirement Age Men 67.00 67 67 67 67 67 [+]
Employment Rate 79.70 81.8 81.6 81.5 81.5 80.4 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 143.70 129 143 144 131 133 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 39.80 47.99 41.04 40.88 47.34 46.21 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 1.90 1.9 2 2.1 2.5 3 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 98.50 98.01 97.65 97.31 96.99 94.09 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 439.60 440 442 444 446 462 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 247.00 247 248 249 250 258 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.73 1.59 1.57 1.53 1.55 1.54 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 171.98 171 174 177 181 207 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 189.60 191 193 195 197 210 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 216.01 209 211 214 216 222 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 236.74 237 235 232 229 218 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 154.12 154 154 154 154 154 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -0.50 -0.5 -0.55 -0.56 -0.56 -0.56 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.70 0.3 0.2 0.14 0.3 0.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change -6.10 -2.9 -1.7 -0.5 0.2 1.5 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 5.00 5 5 5 5 3.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 5.25 5.26 5.25 5.26 5.26 5.26 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 52799.21 52953 52740 52788 52829 52822 ISK Million [+]
Money Supply M1 456.23 138153 221551 97774 199232 157828 ISK Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 974.26 279768 479853 204103 423466 335319 ISK Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 1654.00 476691 803177 355256 710332 567674 ISK Billion [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 3286382.00 2856542 2722351 2617964 2535030 2073970 ISK Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 855061.37 856951 860417 860305 860111 859772 ISK Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 4.85 4.47 4.42 4.38 4.33 5.76 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 937774.08 950617 950652 950670 950670 950670 ISK Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 323.51 307 306 304 303 299 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -6700.00 -9430 -9430 -7749 -7480 -4110 ISK Million [+]
Exports 37600.00 42778 41658 41658 41757 41754 ISK Million [+]
Imports 44200.00 49285 50219 50365 50380 50381 ISK Million [+]
Current Account 100.40 11.03 32.39 21.2 22.52 21.29 ISK Billion [+]
Current Account to GDP 4.20 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4 percent [+]
External Debt 3002528.00 -1318039 -3198301 -3195474 -3208344 -4237704 ISK Million [+]
Capital Flows 129102.00 79.75 67.61 35.27 89.41 59.26 ISK Billion [+]
Gold Reserves 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -87880.00 -13986 -20653 30214 -7070 -2223 ISK Million [+]
Terrorism Index 0.25 0.52 0.68 0.85 1.02 0.81 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 124780.00 128147 133512 147361 141979 141501 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 68.50 74.73 71.56 68.39 65.22 70.88 percent [+]
Government Budget -0.50 -0.54 -0.73 -0.91 -1.1 -2.09 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -17538.00 2640 3824 3560 3661 3631 ISK Million [+]
Government Spending 67968.00 67312 70314 67740 70792 70588 ISK Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 42.70 45.3 44.94 44.58 44.22 44.23 percent [+]
Government Revenues 35419.00 54781 62155 57498 60527 59332 ISK Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 52957.00 55379 55380 55380 55380 55380 ISK Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Changes in Inventories 2396.00 10477 -6362 2876 -4389 -2222 ISK Million [+]
Car Registrations 1757.00 1953 1879 1825 1843 1845 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.96 4.89 4.89 4.89 4.89 4.94 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 27.00 27.74 27.74 27.74 27.74 22.45 [+]
Bankruptcies 100.00 86.34 104 84.76 80.57 80.68 companies [+]
Corruption Index 79.00 79.88 80.08 80.29 80.49 83.06 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 14.00 14.14 14.6 15.06 15.52 23.49 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 20.00 17.6 17.88 18.16 18.44 16.79 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 121.60 125 125 125 125 125 [+]
Consumer Spending 156889.00 164372 179937 164621 182692 191505 ISK Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 2949.10 2982 3019 3055 3091 3579 ISK Thousand [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.70 1.67 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Housing Index 363.90 372 382 392 400 437 Index Points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 77.80 78.35 78.03 77.72 77.4 77.03 percent [+]
Housing Starts 1612.00 1216 1357 1498 1505 1429 units [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 46.30 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 24.00 24 24 24 24 24 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 11.35 11.35 11.35 11.35 11.35 11.35 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00 4 4 4 4 4 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Iceland including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Iceland economy. 2/28/2017