Kenya | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.80 1.2 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 40.00 25 24.7 25 46 24 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 6.68 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.8 5.9 percent [+]
Interest Rate 10.00 10 10 9.5 9.5 8 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -78222.90 -83306 -71165 -74137 -80481 -63421 Million KES [+]
Government Debt to GDP 52.80 53.99 53.64 53.3 52.95 50.75 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Currency 101.75 103 104 105 106 122 [+]
Stock Market 3248.02 3250 3220 3190 3150 2630 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 14.34 13.59 13.73 13.86 14 16.15 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.80 1.2 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.20 5.8 6 5.9 6.1 6.8 percent [+]
GDP 63.40 65.85 66.37 66.89 67.41 72.46 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 1072435.00 1058812 1145160 1171311 1056170 3964092 KES Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 171213.60 176337 177619 178901 180183 212236 KES Million [+]
GDP per capita 1133.46 1166 1172 1179 1186 1271 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 2901.01 2998 3022 3046 3071 3417 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 252707.00 247000 26800 26800 191443 277000 Million KES [+]
GDP From Construction 56847.00 60298 59144 61435 62103 77697 Million KES [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 113460.00 103859 116656 115932 112175 111290 KES Million [+]
GDP From Mining 10400.00 11187 11931 11684 11940 14857 KES Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 51908.00 45552 40236 43359 41525 42204 KES Million [+]
GDP From Services 23186.00 24808 24441 23930 25005 26595 KES Million [+]
GDP From Transport 71534.00 67000 67000 67000 67279 70700 KES Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 28093.00 27385 28400 27864 27754 26573 KES Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 40.00 25 24.7 25 46 24 percent [+]
Population 44.40 45.18 45.37 45.57 45.76 48.3 Million [+]
Living Wage Family 68800.00 77961 77762 77767 77767 77767 KES/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 25900.00 29939 29759 29767 29767 29767 KES/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 61600.00 61000 61700 61600 61600 68000 KES/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 19800.00 19300 19500 19400 19400 26500 KES/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Inflation Rate 6.68 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.8 5.9 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 173.85 175 177 178 179 183 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 11.17 5.9 6.2 6 11.36 7.1 percent [+]
Producer Prices 113.33 116 119 120 122 126 Index points [+]
Producer Prices Change -2.80 1.9 2.8 3.3 3 1.99 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.71 0.58 0.71 0.43 0.52 0.86 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Interest Rate 10.00 10 10 9.5 9.5 8 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 4.47 4.61 4.71 4.73 4.73 4.73 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 1236.72 1182 1238 1295 1355 2429 KES Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 2320.83 2405 2484 2565 2648 4006 KES Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 2761841.00 2859626 2952780 3048965 3148282 4775812 KES Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 10499.00 10384 10388 10388 10388 10388 USD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 9.20 9.58 9.58 9.58 9.58 9.49 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 885202.00 899332 869329 859330 79330 903845 KES Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Balance of Trade -78222.90 -83306 -71165 -74137 -80481 -63421 Million KES [+]
Exports 46204.20 47260 49620 55560 57210 77340 Million KES [+]
Imports 124427.10 130566 120785 129697 137691 140761 million KES [+]
Current Account -403.00 -362 -389 -350 -360 -354 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -11.40 -10.7 -8.4 -8.4 -8.4 -6 percent [+]
External Debt 1803.26 1960 2043 2124 2205 3175 KES Billion [+]
Capital Flows -386800000.00 -526300000 -428100000 -488000000 -397600000 -95400000 USD [+]
Remittances 156049.00 150342 150254 150324 150321 150320 USD Thousand [+]
Gold Reserves 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 Tonnes [+]
Terms Of Trade 73.30 76.57 77.34 78.12 78.89 80.28 Index points [+]
Terrorism Index 6.58 5.69 5.69 5.69 6.24 6.36 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 75630.00 78996 72687 70381 76394 80402 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 89928.00 55044 50514 45984 41453 24980 KES Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 52.80 53.99 53.64 53.3 52.95 50.75 percent [+]
Government Budget -8.10 -9.66 -10.05 -10.44 -10.83 -8.89 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -515348.21 -199104 -237322 -253461 -245518 -244106 KES million [+]
Government Spending 191.45 910 1260 1990 290 1140 KES Billion [+]
Government Revenues 1250.02 613 922 1300 320 900 KES Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 1002.20 924 975 1025 1023 1047 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 2245336.00 1271301 954985 747789 612083 355529 KES Billion [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Manufacturing Pmi 52.00 52.7 53 52.1 54 53.7 [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 63.70 60.7 59.5 61.9 60.7 62 [+]
Car Registrations 18527.00 18913 19578 19221 19760 26351 [+]
Cement Production 552559.00 555843 56715 545690 565686 615645 Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.90 3.83 3.83 3.83 3.83 3.8 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 96.00 94.26 94.26 94.26 94.26 98.11 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 92.00 92 100 104 102 102 [+]
Corruption Index 25.00 24.07 23.9 23.74 23.58 22.63 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 139.00 136 136 135 134 125 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Consumer Spending 2660570.00 2957819 3029320 3100821 3172322 4633755 KES Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 13.88 17.4 17.3 16.9 16.7 18 percent [+]
Personal Savings 11.00 10.5 10.9 10.9 10.9 11.7 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 USD/Liter [+]
Disposable Personal Income 5661.19 5889 5933 5977 6021 7575 KES Billion [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Building Permits 28880.06 29990 30120 29210 25660 33560 KSH Million [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 16.00 16 16 16 16 16 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Kenya including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Kenya economy. 12/5/2016