Kenya | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Kenya including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Kenya economy.

Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.10 0.8 1.3 1 1.29 1.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 40.00 25 42.78 44.05 44.7 24 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 10.28 9.7 10.2 11 11.5 12.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 10.00 11 11.5 11.5 12 12 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -76470.00 -74137 -80481 -76536 -76362 -63421 Million KES [+]
Government Debt to GDP 52.80 48.49 51.24 53.99 53.64 50.75 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Stock Market 3137.41 3080 3050 2960 2990 2490 points [+]
Currency 103.30 104 105 108 107 123 [+]
Government Bond 10y 13.77 13.98 14.12 14.26 14.39 16.61 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.10 0.8 1.3 1 1.29 1.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.70 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.8 6.8 percent [+]
GDP 63.40 66 65.92 65.85 66.37 72.46 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 1073629.00 1102460 1111809 1121051 1130107 1219586 KES Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 171213.60 164587 165849 167110 166163 145966 KES Million [+]
GDP per capita 1133.46 1135 1144 1154 1156 1173 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 2901.01 2912 2937 2963 2973 3105 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 203748.00 26800 219332 219333 219333 277000 Million KES [+]
GDP From Construction 58905.00 61986 63620 65820 65838 80124 Million KES [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 107350.00 109369 109378 109379 109380 109380 KES Million [+]
GDP From Mining 11160.00 11708 12117 12185 12655 14894 KES Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 35721.00 43448 41107 42544 41662 41999 KES Million [+]
GDP From Services 24111.00 23751 24583 25077 24714 25985 KES Million [+]
GDP From Transport 79454.00 67000 73336 73336 73336 70700 KES Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 27471.00 28603 28980 29358 29735 33885 KES Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 40.00 25 42.78 44.05 44.7 24 percent [+]
Population 44.40 44.48 44.83 45.18 45.18 48.3 Million [+]
Living Wage Family 51240.50 55713 55953 56016 56032 56038 KES/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 29349.00 30254 30404 30478 30516 30553 KES/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 61600.00 61600 61600 62800 60495 68000 KES/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 19800.00 19400 19400 19700 19031 26500 KES/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 10.28 9.7 10.2 11 11.5 12.5 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 182.98 189 195 199 203 217 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 18.56 6 23.37 6.8 24.34 7.1 percent [+]
Producer Prices 115.36 120 122 123 123 126 Index points [+]
Producer Prices Change -0.50 3.3 3 2.7 2.7 1.99 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.67 0.43 0.52 0.67 0.68 0.86 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 10.00 11 11.5 11.5 12 12 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 7.79 8.19 8.33 8.36 8.36 8.36 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 1308.93 1431 1491 1549 1549 2167 KES Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 2342.62 2403 2431 2459 2487 2757 KES Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 2753528.40 2739050 2733875 2729766 2726703 2717172 KES Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 10326.70 10324 10323 10323 10323 10323 USD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 8.70 9.06 8.95 8.84 8.84 8.98 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 944875.00 859330 79330 839354 936872 903845 KES Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -76470.00 -74137 -80481 -76536 -76362 -63421 Million KES [+]
Exports 46681.00 55560 57210 49340 46664 77340 Million KES [+]
Imports 123118.20 129697 137691 125876 123758 140761 million KES [+]
Current Account -3617.90 -350 -3194 -300 -300 -3194 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -5.20 -6.2 -6.2 -6.2 -6.5 -6 percent [+]
External Debt 0.00 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 KES Billion [+]
Capital Flows -6448.10 -488000000 -397600000 -325400000 -2699056592 -95400000 USD [+]
Remittances 160941.00 156528 156376 156459 156429 156426 USD Thousand [+]
Gold Reserves 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 89928.00 44977 50010 55044 50514 24980 KES Million [+]
Terms Of Trade 73.30 77.45 77.01 76.57 77.34 80.28 Index points [+]
Terrorism Index 6.58 5.69 6.24 6 6.08 6.36 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 77869.00 70381 76394 77405 74659 80402 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 52.80 48.49 51.24 53.99 53.64 50.75 percent [+]
Government Budget -8.10 -7.21 -7.2 -7.18 -6.88 -6.14 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -114740.00 -154661 -168409 -171373 -167979 -168595 KES million [+]
Government Spending 746.00 1990 290 845 763 1140 KES Billion [+]
Government Revenues 540.45 1300 320 590 580 900 KES Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 1002.20 924 975 1025 1023 1047 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 523505.00 704941 789041 780593 763196 771467 KES Billion [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Manufacturing Pmi 48.50 52.1 54 53.3 51.17 53.7 [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 59.60 61.9 60.7 61.5 60.26 62 [+]
Car Registrations 27431.00 19221 19760 20687 20957 26351 [+]
Cement Production 558112.00 555959 565686 575754 555847 615645 Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.90 3.83 3.83 3.83 3.83 3.8 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 96.00 94.26 94.26 94.26 94.26 98.11 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 92.00 104 102 99 74 102 [+]
Corruption Index 26.00 25 25 25 25 24 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 145.00 140 144 147 148 152 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Spending 2660570.00 2775467 2866643 2957819 3029320 4633755 KES Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 13.69 16.9 16.7 17.3 13.61 18 percent [+]
Personal Savings 11.00 10.9 10.9 10.9 11.89 11.7 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 USD/Liter [+]
Disposable Personal Income 5661.19 5683 5710 5737 5788 7400 KES Billion [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Building Permits 22018.68 29210 25660 27280 25052 33560 KSH Million [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 16.00 16 16 16 16 16 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]