Kenya | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.10 0.3 0.8 1.3 1 1.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 40.00 24.7 25 42.78 44.05 24 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 6.99 5.9 5.6 5.8 5.5 5.9 percent [+]
Interest Rate 10.00 10 9.5 9.5 9.5 8 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -76470.00 -71165 -74137 -80481 -76536 -63421 Million KES [+]
Government Debt to GDP 52.80 45.73 48.49 51.24 53.99 50.75 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 103.10 104 105 106 107 123 [+]
Stock Market 3033.33 3070 3040 3010 2970 2500 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 14.00 14.77 14.91 15.06 13.98 17.38 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.10 0.3 0.8 1.3 1 1.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.70 6 5.9 6.1 6 6.8 percent [+]
GDP 63.40 66.08 66 65.92 65.85 72.46 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 1073629.00 1093021 1102460 1111809 1121051 1219586 KES Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 171213.60 176539 176471 176404 176337 212236 KES Million [+]
GDP per capita 1133.46 1133 1144 1155 1166 1271 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 2901.01 2998 3022 3046 3071 3417 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 203748.00 247000 26800 26800 191443 277000 Million KES [+]
GDP From Construction 58905.00 59893 61986 63620 65820 80124 Million KES [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 107350.00 109320 109369 109378 109379 109380 KES Million [+]
GDP From Mining 11160.00 12022 11708 12117 12185 14894 KES Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 35721.00 39634 43448 41107 42544 41999 KES Million [+]
GDP From Services 24111.00 24248 23751 24583 25077 25985 KES Million [+]
GDP From Transport 79454.00 67000 67000 75584 76488 70700 KES Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 27471.00 28226 28603 28980 29358 33885 KES Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 40.00 24.7 25 42.78 44.05 24 percent [+]
Population 44.40 44.13 44.48 44.83 45.18 48.3 Million [+]
Living Wage Family 51240.50 54789 55713 55953 56016 56038 KES/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 29349.00 29953 30254 30404 30478 30553 KES/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 61600.00 61700 61600 61600 62800 68000 KES/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 19800.00 19500 19400 19400 19700 26500 KES/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 6.99 5.9 5.6 5.8 5.5 5.9 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 176.93 178 180 183 185 213 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 12.54 6.2 6 11.43 6.8 7.1 percent [+]
Producer Prices 115.36 119 120 122 123 126 Index points [+]
Producer Prices Change -0.50 2.8 3.3 3 2.7 1.99 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.00 0.71 0.43 0.52 0.67 0.86 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 10.00 10 9.5 9.5 9.5 8 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 7.79 7.82 8.19 8.33 8.36 8.36 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 1308.93 1371 1431 1491 1549 2167 KES Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 2342.62 2373 2403 2431 2459 2757 KES Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 2753528.40 2745764 2739050 2733875 2729766 2717172 KES Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 10441.50 10468 10470 10470 10470 10470 USD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 9.20 8.16 8.63 9.11 9.58 9.49 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 944875.00 869329 859330 79330 839354 903845 KES Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -76470.00 -71165 -74137 -80481 -76536 -63421 Million KES [+]
Exports 46681.00 49620 55560 57210 49340 77340 Million KES [+]
Imports 123151.00 120785 129697 137691 125876 140761 million KES [+]
Current Account -3716.40 -389 -350 -72.52 -300 281 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -11.40 -8.4 -8.4 -8.4 -8.4 -6 percent [+]
External Debt 0.00 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 KES Billion [+]
Capital Flows -6158000000.00 -428100000 -488000000 -397600000 -325400000 -95400000 USD [+]
Remittances 142555.00 150254 150324 150321 150320 150320 USD Thousand [+]
Gold Reserves 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 Tonnes [+]
Terms Of Trade 73.30 77.89 77.45 77.01 76.57 80.28 Index points [+]
Terrorism Index 6.58 5.69 5.69 6.24 6 6.36 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 75630.00 72687 70381 76394 77405 80402 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 89928.00 39943 44977 50010 55044 24980 KES Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 52.80 45.73 48.49 51.24 53.99 50.75 percent [+]
Government Budget -8.10 -8.3 -8.75 -9.21 -9.66 -8.89 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -515348.21 -237322 -253461 -245518 -242164 -244106 KES million [+]
Government Spending 523.51 1260 1990 290 845 1140 KES Billion [+]
Government Revenues 377.70 922 1300 320 599 900 KES Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 1002.20 924 975 1025 1023 1047 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 2245336.00 1271301 954985 747789 612083 355529 KES Billion [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Manufacturing Pmi 52.00 53 52.1 54 53.3 53.7 [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 59.60 59.5 61.9 60.7 61.5 62 [+]
Car Registrations 18527.00 19578 19221 19760 20687 26351 [+]
Cement Production 558112.00 56715 555959 565686 575754 615645 Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.90 3.83 3.83 3.83 3.83 3.8 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 96.00 94.26 94.26 94.26 94.26 98.11 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 92.00 100 104 102 99 102 [+]
Corruption Index 25.00 23.98 24.01 24.04 24.07 22.63 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 145.00 143 141 139 136 125 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Spending 2660570.00 2684291 2775467 2866643 2957819 4633755 KES Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 13.69 17.3 16.9 16.7 17.3 18 percent [+]
Personal Savings 11.00 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 11.7 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.94 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 USD/Liter [+]
Disposable Personal Income 5661.19 5718 5775 5832 5889 7575 KES Billion [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Building Permits 29242.92 30120 29210 25660 27280 33560 KSH Million [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 16.00 16 16 16 16 16 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Kenya including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Kenya economy. 2/27/2017