Lebanon | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.40 7 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.13 0.5 0.2 0.7 1 2.3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 10.00 10 8 8 8 8 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -1193.95 -1900 -1500 -1500 -1328 -1700 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 139.00 140 141 141 141 142 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Currency 1505.40 1521 1536 1551 1566 1807 [+]
Stock Market 1226.12 1210 1190 1180 1170 975 points [+]
GDP Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.00 0.5 1.2 1.5 1.7 4.6 percent [+]
GDP 47.10 48.26 48.49 48.72 48.95 51.01 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 50991022.87 51957230 52283892 52610555 52937218 58844361 LBP Million [+]
GDP per capita 7062.22 6599 6477 6355 6233 7115 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 13117.25 12907 12800 12800 12800 14063 USD [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.40 7 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 percent [+]
Population 4.65 4.71 4.72 4.74 4.75 4.94 Million [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Inflation Rate 1.13 0.5 0.2 0.7 1 2.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 97.94 97.36 96.91 97.06 97.09 97.07 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.91 0.26 0.58 0.36 0.48 0.44 percent [+]
Food Inflation -1.61 -1.6 -1.57 -1.59 -1.59 -1.59 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 87.04 87.6 86.76 87.05 86.98 86.99 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Interest Rate 10.00 10 8 8 8 8 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 4229.70 4321 4417 4516 4617 6151 LBP Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 9811.50 9626 9869 10118 10373 14339 LBP Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 81397.50 82913 83886 84504 84828 79209 LBP Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 193180.00 196374 196673 196591 196410 193718 LBP Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.00 6.07 6.08 6.08 6.08 5.98 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Balance of Trade -1193.95 -1900 -1500 -1500 -1328 -1700 USD Million [+]
Exports 254.33 264 267 267 267 267 USD Million [+]
Imports 1448.28 1679 1577 1601 1596 1597 USD Million [+]
Current Account 1787.80 -478 -450 -450 -449 -449 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -25.00 -22 -20 -20 -16.72 -17 percent [+]
External Debt 29088.00 29549 29878 30197 30507 33856 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows 2974.20 1403 1475 1454 1442 1439 USD Million [+]
Remittances 873.30 827 815 810 812 800 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 286.83 287 287 287 287 287 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 6.07 5.98 5.97 5.96 5.95 5.89 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1355.00 1410 1540 1540 1540 1970 Thousand [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 171.19 200 202 201 202 202 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 139.00 140 141 141 141 142 percent [+]
Government Budget 5.35 -2.48 -3.2 -3.91 -4.63 7.07 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -254084.00 -353467 -378948 -369728 -372672 -371943 LBP Million [+]
Government Spending 6178281.31 6390544 6385101 6379657 6374213 6191315 LBP Million [+]
Government Revenues 1057360.00 1169913 1186650 1196598 1198132 1198836 LBP Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 1311444.00 1498934 1544457 1544556 1549876 1549638 LBP Million [+]
Military Expenditure 2236.10 2301 2328 2354 2346 2319 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 96618.00 98484 99964 101430 102887 121187 LBP Billion [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Manufacturing Pmi 46.90 48 48.7 48.7 45.6 51 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 126.00 120 122 123 123 119 [+]
Electricity Production 1190.00 1121 1133 1128 1130 1130 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Coincident Index 284.60 304 304 304 286 309 Index Points [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.84 3.83 3.83 3.83 3.83 3.83 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 101.00 99.72 99.72 99.72 99.72 95.07 [+]
Corruption Index 28.00 28.6 28.63 28.66 28.69 28.67 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 123.00 122 120 119 118 111 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Consumer Spending 43293298.42 42866045 42906104 42946163 42986222 43055189 LBP Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.71 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 23.50 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 21.50 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 2.00 2 2 2 2 2 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Lebanon including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Lebanon economy. 12/8/2016