Lebanon | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.40 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 4.93 4.8 4.5 4.1 3.7 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 10.00 10 10 8 8 8 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -1372.78 -1500 -1500 -1305 -1800 -1700 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 139.00 141 141 141 141 142 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 1512.00 1519 1534 1549 1579 1805 [+]
Stock Market 1226.30 1210 1200 1190 1160 978 points [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.00 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.9 4.6 percent [+]
GDP 47.10 47.03 47.44 47.85 48.26 51.01 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 51664436.99 50952684 51159449 51366214 51572980 50972085 LBP Million [+]
GDP per capita 7045.50 7076 6917 6758 6599 7115 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 13089.01 12800 12800 12800 12800 14063 USD [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.40 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 percent [+]
Population 4.65 4.59 4.63 4.67 4.71 4.94 Million [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 4.93 4.8 4.5 4.1 3.7 2.5 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 99.00 99.07 99.09 99.13 99.12 99.12 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.55 0.58 0.25 0.45 0.38 0.41 percent [+]
Food Inflation 1.44 1.55 1.3 1.33 1.35 1.35 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 89.50 89.5 88.84 88.96 88.96 88.95 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 10.00 10 10 8 8 8 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 4220.10 4385 4477 4556 4639 5577 LBP Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 9820.70 10121 10290 10488 10687 13023 LBP Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 82160.40 81976 82350 82454 82556 82878 LBP Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 200310.00 202286 206432 210189 213859 252538 LBP Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.00 6.05 6.06 6.07 6.07 5.98 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -1372.78 -1500 -1500 -1305 -1800 -1700 USD Million [+]
Exports 231.65 249 248 248 248 248 USD Million [+]
Imports 1604.43 1524 1513 1529 1525 1524 USD Million [+]
Current Account 166.70 169 341 323 332 330 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -25.00 -20 -20 -18.64 -20 -17 percent [+]
External Debt 28189.70 28294 28450 28601 28749 30228 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows 209.90 1555 1464 1457 1461 1464 USD Million [+]
Remittances 870.80 830 821 822 819 810 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 286.83 287 287 287 287 287 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 6.07 6.14 6.09 6.03 5.98 5.89 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1355.00 1540 1540 1540 1560 1970 Thousand [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 320.56 203 205 204 205 205 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 139.00 141 141 141 141 142 percent [+]
Government Budget 5.35 2.91 1.11 -0.68 -2.48 7.07 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -773875.00 -413894 -521293 -477124 -495273 -491585 LBP Million [+]
Government Spending 6533697.60 6672239 6540639 6409039 6277440 6278255 LBP Million [+]
Government Revenues 1100546.00 1148557 1137135 1131098 1124721 1121995 LBP Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 1874421.00 1651242 1720736 1693182 1708254 1708124 LBP Million [+]
Military Expenditure 2236.10 2301 2328 2354 2346 2319 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 98480.00 99683 101065 102467 103863 120048 LBP Billion [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Manufacturing Pmi 47.70 48.7 48.7 47.18 49.2 51 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 126.00 121 122 123 123 119 [+]
Electricity Production 1190.00 1168 1148 1156 1151 1153 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Coincident Index 297.20 304 304 294 305 309 Index Points [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.84 3.83 3.83 3.83 3.83 3.83 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 101.00 99.72 99.72 99.72 99.72 95.07 [+]
Corruption Index 28.00 27 28 28 28 28 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 136.00 126 125 123 122 111 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Spending 44444718.94 41941368 42757107 43572847 44388587 43756568 LBP Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.79 0.79 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 23.50 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 21.50 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 2.00 2 2 2 2 2 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Lebanon including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Lebanon economy. 3/29/2017