Lebanon | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.40 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 5.12 4.5 4.1 3.7 5.37 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 10.00 10 8 8 8 8 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -1421.92 -1500 -1327 -1800 -1329 -1700 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 139.00 141 141 141 141 142 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 1511.00 1520 1540 1580 1570 1810 [+]
Stock Market 1170.00 1220 1210 1170 1190 989 points [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.00 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.7 4.6 percent [+]
GDP 47.10 47.44 47.85 48.26 48.49 51.01 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 51664436.99 51159449 51366214 51572980 51482031 50972085 LBP Million [+]
GDP per capita 7045.50 7226 7098 6971 7013 7115 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 13089.01 12800 12800 12800 12717 14063 USD [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.40 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 percent [+]
Population 4.65 4.63 4.67 4.71 4.72 4.94 Million [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 5.12 4.5 4.1 3.7 5.37 2.5 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 99.66 99.86 99.91 99.9 99.91 99.91 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.66 0.25 0.47 0.39 0.44 0.43 percent [+]
Food Inflation 2.41 2.25 2.21 2.22 2.23 2.23 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 89.71 89.13 89.18 89.21 89.19 89.19 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 10.00 10 8 8 8 8 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 4208.70 4384 4468 4542 4614 5387 LBP Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 9860.20 10199 10390 10581 10769 12801 LBP Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 82845.10 83979 84644 85101 85465 86593 LBP Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 201755.00 207385 211473 215479 219412 257901 LBP Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.00 6.06 6.07 6.07 6.08 5.98 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -1421.92 -1500 -1327 -1800 -1329 -1700 USD Million [+]
Exports 226.07 242 241 241 241 241 USD Million [+]
Imports 1647.99 1599 1586 1580 1585 1585 USD Million [+]
Current Account 341.80 337 319 327 327 326 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -25.00 -20 -18.64 -20 -17.7 -17 percent [+]
External Debt 28189.70 28450 28601 28749 28892 30228 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows 209.90 1464 1457 1461 1459 1464 USD Million [+]
Remittances 870.80 821 822 819 817 810 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 286.83 287 287 287 287 287 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 6.07 6.09 6.03 5.98 5.97 5.89 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1355.00 1540 1426 1560 1439 1970 Thousand [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 320.56 205 204 205 205 205 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 139.00 141 141 141 141 142 percent [+]
Government Budget 5.35 1.11 -0.68 -2.48 -3.2 7.07 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -773875.00 -521293 -477124 -495273 -489974 -491585 LBP Million [+]
Government Spending 6533697.60 6540639 6409039 6277440 6273450 6278255 LBP Million [+]
Government Revenues 1100546.00 1137135 1131098 1124721 1123033 1121995 LBP Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 1874421.00 1720736 1693182 1708254 1706186 1708124 LBP Million [+]
Military Expenditure 2236.10 2301 2328 2354 2346 2319 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 98480.00 101065 102467 103863 105250 120048 LBP Billion [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Manufacturing Pmi 46.90 48.7 47.03 49.2 47.05 51 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 126.00 123 122 120 120 116 [+]
Electricity Production 1190.00 1148 1156 1151 1153 1153 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Coincident Index 297.20 304 294 305 294 309 Index Points [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.84 3.85 3.85 3.85 4.01 3.81 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 101.00 101 101 101 115 116 [+]
Corruption Index 28.00 28 28 28 28 28 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 136.00 130 133 136 136 136 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Spending 44444718.94 42757107 43572847 44388587 44247375 43756568 LBP Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.76 0.74 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 23.50 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 21.50 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 2.00 2 2 2 2 2 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Lebanon including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Lebanon economy. 4/25/2017