Portugal | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 10.50 10.9 10.4 10.2 10.2 9 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.90 0.8 1 1.1 1.2 1.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -790.68 -897 -1192 -882 -1040 -893 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 129.00 129 125 125 124 121 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 1.06 1.02 1.01 1 1.04 0.83 [+]
Stock Market 4585.99 4570 4520 4480 4430 3730 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.91 3.85 3.88 3.92 4.14 4.52 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.60 1 1.2 1.7 1.3 2 percent [+]
GDP 198.92 202 202 204 206 242 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 43546.40 43444 43486 43686 43718 44959 EUR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 6691.20 6503 6439 6339 6247 5234 EUR Million [+]
GDP per capita 21960.47 21951 22645 22761 22877 23337 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 26688.96 26797 27139 27277 27415 26971 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 910.00 911 939 941 944 947 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 1454.60 1420 1612 1611 1604 1274 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 5329.50 5334 5112 5114 5116 5357 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Services 8231.10 8309 8105 8122 8141 8471 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 2985.50 2954 2995 3014 3025 3148 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 1167.30 1189 1098 1101 1103 1184 EUR Million [+]
Gross National Product 47114.91 45892 46183 46328 46719 49530 EUR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 10.50 10.9 10.4 10.2 10.2 9 percent [+]
Employed Persons 4570.50 4467 4568 4585 4525 4642 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 538.80 535 528 522 516 490 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 555.50 558 564 558 586 608 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 4106.00 3998 4055 4089 4025 4185 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 52.60 51 52 51.9 51.9 52.4 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 58.80 58.1 58.2 58.1 58 57.7 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 6.20 6.1 6 5.9 5.5 5.2 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 28.40 24.83 24.8 24.3 23.9 21.69 percent [+]
Labour Costs 94.00 92.5 98.2 91.8 99.8 100 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 9445.00 16450 16320 17052 10511 10712 [+]
Wages 1130.37 1141 1145 1148 1151 1185 EUR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 118.32 121 98.5 104 93.6 125 Index Points [+]
Wage Growth 2.30 2 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.7 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 649.83 650 650 650 650 700 EUR/Month [+]
Population 10.37 10.35 10.31 10.31 10.3 10.12 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Living Wage Family 1020.00 1020 1028 1028 1028 1205 EUR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 565.00 565 571 571 571 602 EUR/Month [+]
Productivity 112.30 99.5 104 110 102 103 Index points [+]
Wages Low Skilled 663.00 679 682 686 689 694 EUR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 1310.00 1390 1420 1450 1480 1680 EUR/Month [+]
Employment Change 1.30 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.1 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 0.90 0.8 1 1.1 1.2 1.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00 0.4 0.4 0.04 0.3 0.4 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 100.74 100 103 105 107 100 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.49 102 103 105 107 104 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 102.04 102 104 106 108 105 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.52 0.29 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.18 percent [+]
Producer Prices 99.00 97.84 104 106 108 97.87 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.70 -0.4 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 95.72 93.91 97 98 99 93.84 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.62 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.8 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 1.30 0.83 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.46 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.32 -0.38 -0.42 -0.37 -0.33 0.56 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 25781.00 26500 26900 27300 27800 31500 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 103223.00 112200 117100 122500 128200 244400 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 190035.00 193900 197100 200500 204100 273300 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 23841.80 23910 24220 24520 24820 28220 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 376997.00 362800 355600 349400 345100 425200 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 78101.00 75758 74591 73469 74389 11238 EUR Million [+]
Loan Growth -2.00 -1.2 -1 -0.6 -0.2 1.1 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 275.29 273 274 270 268 249 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 98931.00 106300 111200 115650 119700 171250 EUR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -790.68 -897 -1192 -882 -1040 -893 EUR Million [+]
Exports 4663.00 4058 4387 3985 3541 3675 EUR Million [+]
Imports 5453.68 5250 5269 5025 4745 4805 EUR Million [+]
Current Account -152.32 401 -205 72 -151 -98 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 0.70 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.6 percent [+]
External Debt 396247.94 399952 402531 405480 406375 511307 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows 125.52 854 -256 -45 256 287 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 279.85 562 422 598 -152 -82 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 238.08 265 308 267 392 402 EUR Million [+]
Tourism Revenues 812.89 802 1065 1374 836 1005 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 382.51 383 383 383 383 383 Tonnes [+]
Tourist Arrivals 2090060.00 2618063 4015115 4051335 1436271 1513781 [+]
Terrorism Index 0.06 0.15 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.28 [+]
Weapons Sales 7.00 11 8 8 8 9 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 129.00 129 125 125 124 121 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.40 -2.9 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -0.9 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -6658.00 -1661 -4254 -4179 -5206 -5357 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending 8362.50 8371 8376 8379 8383 8485 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 48.30 48 48 48 48 47.5 percent [+]
Government Revenues 35562.00 9938 20895 32195 43187 44203 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt 239827.00 244826 244800 247500 249000 269545 EUR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 42221.00 11599 25149 36374 48393 49560 EUR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 4379.60 4306 4314 4314 4314 4334 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 80.00 55 60 65 55 35 persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 1.20 1 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.1 [+]
Industrial Production 1.60 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.9 2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.80 -0.2 2.5 -0.1 -0.7 0.5 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -3.00 -0.4 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.5 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 80.25 77.8 80.5 80.7 79.1 81 percent [+]
New Orders 112.60 118 108 118 108 108 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 26.76 82.45 120 106 116 113 EUR Million [+]
Car Registrations 16525.00 27850 23980 14520 13880 15420 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.60 0.6 0.8 0.9 1 1.8 percent [+]
Mining Production 0.40 -0.8 -0.2 0.1 0.2 1 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.48 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.85 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 46.00 46 45 45 45 42 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 25.00 26.08 24 24 24 26.44 [+]
Electricity Production 4721.00 5100 4682 4020 4560 4720 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 63.00 65 65 65 65 68 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 28.00 32.05 27 27 27 37.31 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -8.20 -11.4 -11.4 -11.2 -9.2 -8.2 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -1.30 -2.5 1.7 -1.2 -0.2 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.30 2.2 1.9 2 1.7 1.9 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 28101.40 28250 28390 28420 28540 29630 EUR Million [+]
Personal Savings 4.00 4.2 4.54 4.6 4.8 5.8 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 117590.00 116600 116000 115400 114800 116900 EUR Million [+]
Personal Spending 1.90 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.5 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.35 3.29 3.24 3.22 3.15 3.8 percent [+]
Disposable Personal Income 37916.10 37997 38097 38251 38391 40124 EUR Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.56 1.69 1.72 1.75 1.74 2 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 75.70 72.33 72.3 71.4 70.6 62.04 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 112.59 110 109 108 108 100 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Construction Output -1.80 -1.2 -0.2 0.2 0.5 1.5 percent [+]
Housing Index 100.89 102 104 105 107 117 Index points [+]
Building Permits 1357.00 1395 1364 1378 1176 1285 [+]
Construction Orders 16.10 -5 2.65 2.5 4.6 1.6 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 74.80 74.4 74.4 74.4 74.4 73.8 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 21.00 21 21 21 21 21 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 56.50 56.5 56.5 56.5 56.5 56.5 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 23.00 23 23 23 23 23 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Portugal including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Portugal economy. 1/20/2017