Portugal | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 10.50 10.9 10.4 10.2 10.2 9 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.30 0.8 1 1.1 1.2 1.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -1373.50 -1192 -882 -1040 -1204 -1130 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 129.00 128 125 125 124 121 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 1.06 1.02 1.01 1 1.04 0.83 [+]
Stock Market 4618.94 4570 4520 4480 4430 3730 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.88 4.2 4.4 4.1 4 3.2 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.90 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 2.2 percent [+]
GDP 198.92 200 202 204 206 242 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 43820.80 43600 43700 43800 43900 44900 EUR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 6691.20 6750 6810 6870 6920 7860 EUR Million [+]
GDP per capita 21960.47 22300 22400 22500 22600 23600 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 26688.96 27300 27400 27500 27600 28600 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 910.00 913 915 917 919 945 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 1454.60 1490 1520 1610 1690 1930 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 5329.50 5370 5420 5480 5520 5850 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Services 8231.10 8290 8370 8450 8520 8850 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 2985.50 3020 3150 3220 3290 3540 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 1167.30 1200 1270 1340 1410 1770 EUR Million [+]
Gross National Product 47114.91 47400 47700 48100 48400 50600 EUR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 10.50 10.9 10.4 10.2 10.2 9 percent [+]
Employed Persons 4566.70 4467 4568 4585 4525 4642 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 529.10 515 507 498 491 455 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 553.50 558 564 573 586 608 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 4090.10 3998 4055 4089 4025 4185 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 52.40 52.4 52.6 52.7 52.9 54 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 58.60 58.1 58.2 58.1 58 57.7 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 6.10 6.1 6 5.9 5.8 5.2 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 26.40 25 24.8 24.3 23.9 21.7 percent [+]
Labour Costs 94.00 92.5 98.2 91.8 99.8 100 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 5966.00 16250 16120 10050 10111 10412 [+]
Wages 1130.37 1141 1145 1148 1151 1185 EUR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 123.00 98.5 104 93.6 123 125 Index Points [+]
Wage Growth 3.20 2 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.7 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 649.83 650 650 650 650 700 EUR/Month [+]
Population 10.34 10.35 10.31 10.31 10.3 10.12 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.25 66.25 66.25 66.25 66.25 66.5 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.25 66.25 66.25 66.25 66.25 66.5 [+]
Living Wage Family 764.90 1028 1028 1028 1028 1205 EUR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 626.40 571 571 571 571 602 EUR/Month [+]
Productivity 112.30 99.5 104 112 102 103 Index points [+]
Wages Low Skilled 663.00 679 682 686 689 694 EUR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 1310.00 1390 1420 1450 1480 1680 EUR/Month [+]
Employment Change 1.30 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.1 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 1.30 0.8 1 1.1 1.2 1.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.60 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 100.05 101 103 105 107 120 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.89 101 103 105 107 120 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 100.66 103 104 106 108 121 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.51 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 2 percent [+]
Producer Prices 100.10 101 103 105 107 121 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.00 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.4 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 96.63 97 99 101 103 117 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.33 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.8 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 1.30 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 2.6 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.33 -0.24 -0.12 -0.09 0.05 0.45 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 25922.00 26500 26900 27300 27800 31500 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 103250.00 112200 117100 122500 128200 244400 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 191269.00 193900 197100 200500 204100 273300 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 23312.07 23910 24220 24520 24820 28220 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 370908.00 362800 355600 349400 345100 425200 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 77037.00 75758 74591 73469 74389 11238 EUR Million [+]
Loan Growth -2.00 -1.2 -1 -0.6 -0.2 1.1 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 275.29 273 271 270 268 249 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 101552.00 106300 111200 115650 119700 171250 EUR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -1373.50 -1192 -882 -1040 -1204 -1130 EUR Million [+]
Exports 4062.13 4058 4387 3985 3541 3675 EUR Million [+]
Imports 5435.63 5250 5269 5025 4745 4805 EUR Million [+]
Current Account -211.40 401 -205 72 -151 -98 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 0.70 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 percent [+]
External Debt 396247.94 399952 402531 405480 406375 511307 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows 323.98 854 -256 -45 256 287 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 799.22 562 422 598 -152 -82 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 299.27 265 308 267 392 402 EUR Million [+]
Tourism Revenues 812.89 802 1065 1374 836 1005 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 382.51 383 383 383 383 383 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1596320.00 2618063 4015115 4051335 1436271 1513781 [+]
Weapons Sales 7.00 11 8 8 8 9 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 129.00 128 125 125 124 121 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.40 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -0.9 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -6157.00 -1661 -4254 -4179 -5206 -5357 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending 8362.50 8371 8376 8379 8383 8485 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 48.30 48 48 48 48 47.5 percent [+]
Government Revenues 44206.00 9938 20895 32195 43187 44203 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt 244397.00 245100 246800 247500 249000 271000 EUR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 50363.00 11599 25149 36374 48393 49560 EUR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 4379.60 4306 4314 4314 4314 4334 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 80.00 55 60 65 55 35 persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 1.30 1.2 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.1 [+]
Industrial Production 5.10 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.9 2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 1.30 -0.2 2.5 -0.1 -0.7 0.5 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.80 1.2 1 0.9 0.8 1.5 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 80.03 80.2 80.4 80.5 80.6 81.4 percent [+]
New Orders 112.60 118 108 118 108 108 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 26.76 82.45 120 106 116 113 EUR Million [+]
Car Registrations 15029.00 27850 23980 14520 13880 15420 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 1.20 1 1.2 1.4 1.3 2 percent [+]
Mining Production 5.90 -0.8 -0.2 0.1 0.2 1 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.74 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 46.00 46 46 46 46 43 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 25.00 24 24 24 24 21 [+]
Electricity Production 4900.00 5100 4682 4020 4560 4720 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 63.00 64 64 64 64 67 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 29.00 28 28 28 28 25 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -4.40 -5.2 -9.2 -10.4 -9.8 -8.2 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -2.30 -2.5 1.7 -1.2 -0.2 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.90 2.2 1.9 2 1.7 1.9 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 28101.40 28250 28390 28420 28540 29630 EUR Million [+]
Personal Savings 4.00 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.8 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 117296.00 116600 116000 115400 114800 116900 EUR Million [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 75.70 72.33 72.3 71.4 70.6 62.04 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 112.59 110 109 108 108 100 percent [+]
Personal Spending 2.50 2 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.6 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.20 3.22 3.24 3.29 3.34 3.8 percent [+]
Disposable Personal Income 37916.10 37997 38097 38251 38391 40124 EUR Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.59 1.64 1.66 1.67 1.66 1.81 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Construction Output -1.80 -1.2 -0.2 0.2 0.5 1.5 percent [+]
Housing Index 100.89 102 104 105 107 117 Index points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 74.80 74.4 74.4 74.4 74.4 73.8 percent [+]
Construction Orders 63.00 -5 2.7 2.5 4.6 1.6 percent [+]
Building Permits 1496.00 1395 1364 1378 1176 1285 [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 21.00 21 21 21 21 21 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 56.50 56.5 56.5 56.5 56.5 56.5 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 23.00 23 23 23 23 23 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Portugal including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Portugal economy. 2/28/2017