Portugal | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 10.50 10.7 10.9 10.4 10.2 9.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.90 0.6 0.8 1 1.1 1.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -920.83 -1140 -915 -1192 -882 -909 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 129.00 126 124 125 125 121 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Currency 1.07 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.02 0.85 [+]
Stock Market 4392.12 4370 4320 4280 4240 3530 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.70 3.78 3.81 3.85 3.89 4.49 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.60 1 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.8 percent [+]
GDP 198.93 200 202 202 204 242 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 43546.40 43320 43010 43486 43686 44041 EUR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 6769.50 6534 6372 6298 6196 4983 EUR Million [+]
GDP per capita 21961.39 22528 22645 22645 22761 23337 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 26690.06 27001 27201 27139 27277 28217 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 936.70 935 940 939 941 984 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 1637.60 1626 1613 1612 1611 1588 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 5108.00 5110 5092 5112 5114 5097 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Services 8002.00 8075 8106 8105 8122 8206 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 2881.70 2988 2996 2995 3014 3166 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 1052.10 1086 1099 1098 1101 1096 EUR Million [+]
Gross National Product 46684.15 45629 45892 46183 46328 49530 EUR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 10.50 10.7 10.9 10.4 10.2 9.6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 4577.30 4495 4467 4568 4585 4642 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 553.10 545 535 528 522 490 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 555.50 575 558 564 558 608 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 4106.00 4011 3998 4055 4089 4185 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 52.60 51.8 51 52 51.9 52.4 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 58.80 58.3 58.1 58.2 58.1 57.7 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 6.20 6 6.1 6 5.9 5.2 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 26.50 25.5 24.83 24.8 24.3 21.69 percent [+]
Labour Costs 98.00 99.5 92.5 98.2 91.8 100 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 11158.00 10498 16450 16320 17052 10712 [+]
Wages 1130.37 1136 1141 1145 1148 1185 EUR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 94.24 121 98.5 104 93.6 125 Index Points [+]
Wage Growth 2.30 2.2 2 2.1 2.2 2.7 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 618.33 618 627 627 627 700 EUR/Month [+]
Population 10.37 10.32 10.29 10.31 10.31 10.12 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Living Wage Family 1020.00 1020 1028 1028 1028 1205 EUR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 565.00 565 571 571 571 602 EUR/Month [+]
Productivity 103.40 101 99.5 104 110 103 Index points [+]
Wages Low Skilled 663.00 675 679 682 686 694 EUR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 1310.00 1360 1390 1420 1450 1680 EUR/Month [+]
Employment Change 0.60 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 1.1 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Inflation Rate 0.90 0.6 0.8 1 1.1 1.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.11 0.4 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 101.74 102 102 103 105 102 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.96 102 103 103 105 107 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 102.47 103 102 104 106 105 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.74 0.6 0.78 0.7 0.9 0.8 percent [+]
Producer Prices 98.10 103 98.49 104 106 98.58 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change -0.90 -0.9 -0.4 0.1 0.3 1.6 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 95.11 96 95.2 97 98 100 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.45 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.8 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 1.70 1.5 0.83 1.2 1.2 1.46 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.31 -0.34 -0.38 -0.42 -0.37 0.56 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 25749.00 26100 26500 26900 27300 31500 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 101360.00 107700 112200 117100 122500 244400 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 188425.00 190900 193900 197100 200500 273300 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 22951.36 23630 23910 24220 24520 28220 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 378526.00 369900 362800 355600 349400 425200 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 78478.00 76971 75758 74591 73469 11238 EUR Million [+]
Loan Growth -2.00 -1.6 -1.2 -1 -0.6 1.1 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 275.29 273 274 270 268 249 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 98097.00 101080 106300 111200 115650 171250 EUR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Balance of Trade -920.83 -1140 -915 -1192 -882 -909 EUR Million [+]
Exports 4413.52 3612 4058 4387 3985 3675 EUR Million [+]
Imports 5334.34 4752 5250 5269 5025 4805 EUR Million [+]
Current Account 212.57 -192 401 -205 72 -98 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 0.70 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.6 percent [+]
External Debt 396247.94 398609 399952 402531 405480 511307 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows 215.69 211 854 -256 -45 287 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -168.07 -256 562 422 598 -82 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 268.70 389 265 308 267 402 EUR Million [+]
Tourism Revenues 1763.55 850 802 1065 1374 1005 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 382.51 383 383 383 383 383 Tonnes [+]
Tourist Arrivals 4316056.00 1411920 2618063 4015115 4051335 1513781 [+]
Terrorism Index 0.06 0.27 0.13 0.27 0.27 0.28 [+]
Weapons Sales 7.00 11 8 8 8 9 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 129.00 126 124 125 125 121 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.40 -3 -2.9 -2.8 -2.8 -0.9 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -4967.00 -5640 -1661 -4254 -4179 -5357 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending 8358.60 8365 8371 8376 8379 8485 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 48.30 48.2 48 48 48 47.5 percent [+]
Government Revenues 32310.00 43148 9938 20895 32195 44203 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt 239827.00 241800 244826 244800 247500 269545 EUR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 33845.00 48788 11599 25149 36374 49560 EUR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 4379.60 4306 4314 4314 4314 4334 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 60.00 50 55 65 80 35 persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Business Confidence 1.20 0.8 1 1.1 1.3 1.1 [+]
Industrial Production -0.50 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.7 2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 1.40 -1.2 -0.2 2.5 -0.1 0.5 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -3.00 -1 -0.4 0.2 0.5 1.5 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 80.25 78.5 77.8 80.5 80.7 81 percent [+]
New Orders 112.60 108 118 108 118 108 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 148.56 115 115 112 113 111 EUR Million [+]
Car Registrations 14936.00 13450 27850 23980 14520 15420 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.50 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.8 percent [+]
Mining Production -2.50 -1.4 -0.8 -0.2 0.1 1 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.48 4.48 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.85 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 46.00 46 45 45 45 42 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 25.00 25 26.12 24 24 26.44 [+]
Electricity Production 4441.00 4518 5100 4682 4020 4720 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 63.00 64 65 65 65 68 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 28.00 28 33.03 27 27 37.34 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -10.50 -12.8 -11.4 -11.4 -11.2 -8.2 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 1.60 -0.5 -2.5 1.7 -1.2 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.70 2.5 2.2 1.9 2 1.9 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 27976.40 28130 28250 28390 28420 29630 EUR Million [+]
Personal Savings 3.90 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 5.8 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 117950.00 117200 116600 116000 115400 116900 EUR Million [+]
Personal Spending 1.60 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.5 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.40 3.34 3.29 3.24 3.22 3.8 percent [+]
Disposable Personal Income 37518.10 37862 37997 38097 38251 40124 EUR Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.62 1.65 1.69 1.72 1.75 2 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 76.30 73.2 72.33 72.3 71.4 62.04 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 112.59 110 110 109 108 100 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Construction Output -2.60 -2.1 -1.2 -0.2 0.2 1.5 percent [+]
Housing Index 99.58 102 102 104 105 117 Index points [+]
Building Permits 1357.00 1156 1395 1364 1378 1285 [+]
Construction Orders 16.10 11.1 -5 2.65 2.5 1.6 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 74.80 74.6 74.4 74.4 74.4 73.8 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 21.00 21 21 21 21 21 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 56.50 56.5 56.5 56.5 56.5 56.5 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 23.00 23 23 23 23 23 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Portugal including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Portugal economy. 12/4/2016