Serbia | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.00 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 13.80 16 13.4 12.5 15 13 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.60 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.00 3.5 3.5 3 3.25 2.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -320.40 -342 -339 -339 -339 -339 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 73.40 84.15 74.45 64.75 55.05 22.69 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Stock Market 701.44 700 693 686 679 572 points [+]
Currency 115.70 120 121 122 123 141 [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.00 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.60 2.2 2 2.3 2.3 2.9 percent [+]
GDP 37.16 42.92 44.45 39.51 49.12 75.25 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 822671.60 770080 816145 852612 865728 930981 RSD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 200862.80 175796 198242 202939 203213 231018 RSD Million [+]
GDP per capita 5661.11 5637 5659 5680 5702 5850 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 12867.12 12919 12993 13066 13140 14422 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 81603.20 31121 43184 41869 40599 28085 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 39876.90 31036 39227 42735 46163 45127 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 162123.40 161252 164528 159062 164387 163785 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 102946.00 96756 100305 96806 100256 99989 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Services 131505.70 114285 122527 125211 128390 126160 RSD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 13.80 16 13.4 12.5 15 13 percent [+]
Employed Persons 2814000.00 2785874 2937929 2968871 2929725 3169770 [+]
Unemployed Persons 686.72 691 691 690 690 690 Thousand [+]
Wages 45767.00 45943 45783 45860 45831 45839 RSD/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 233.37 233 233 233 233 233 EUR/Month [+]
Population 7.11 7.1 7.09 7.08 7.07 6.95 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 54.10 54.87 55 55.2 55.83 57.67 percent [+]
Labour Costs 103.07 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Employment Rate 45.90 47.13 46.38 46.57 49.26 54.14 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 36.10 38.5 42.96 38.09 35.96 37.76 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 1.60 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.4 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 185.60 187 187 188 188 189 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10 0.17 0.2 0.19 0.2 0.2 percent [+]
Food Inflation 0.70 0.86 1 0.98 1.01 1.02 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 167.40 166 166 166 166 166 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 4.00 3.5 3.5 3 3.25 2.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 143603.00 143205 142358 143069 143111 142913 RSD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 10204.00 9739 9741 9740 9740 9740 EUR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 2.50 2.49 2.49 2.49 2.49 2.49 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 570682.00 595742 616486 637954 660171 995698 RSD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 743177.00 718426 715102 711862 708789 673296 RSD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2115636.00 2091982 2089314 2086659 2084018 2053354 RSD Million [+]
Interbank Rate 3.46 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.49 3.49 percent [+]
Lending Rate 5.50 5.62 5.97 6.54 7.08 7.86 percent [+]
Loans To Private Sector 1008066.00 1014277 1018436 1022357 1026050 1056791 SRB Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -320.40 -342 -339 -339 -339 -339 USD Million [+]
Exports 1288.00 1278 1285 1288 1287 1287 USD Million [+]
Imports 1608.50 1616 1615 1613 1614 1614 USD Million [+]
Current Account -42.00 -174 -170 -166 -162 -121 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.80 -7.75 -7.17 -6.6 -6.02 -7.35 percent [+]
External Debt 25819.50 25818 25792 25773 25756 25615 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows -38.00 -72.23 -93.64 -58.12 -73.39 -51.23 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 18.51 18.05 18.33 18.5 18.26 18.38 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 119.26 107 107 107 107 107 EUR Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 BBL/D/1K [+]
Weapons Sales 19.00 19.55 16.23 12.9 13.03 18.27 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 0.09 0.61 0.5 0.39 0.27 0.27 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 133429.00 82756 77540 118282 122294 102278 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 73.40 84.15 74.45 64.75 55.05 22.69 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.90 -4.51 -3.95 -3.39 -2.83 -2.72 percent of GDP [+]
Government Debt 3044040.01 2989552 2988948 2988487 2988182 2987865 RSD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 877.20 921 918 914 914 915 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 168109.50 153333 171256 153422 171168 170653 RSD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Industrial Production 1.30 1.68 2.1 2.25 2.28 2.28 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.90 1.75 1.92 1.53 1.46 1.4 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 47.00 57.81 56.65 55.5 54.35 64.5 [+]
Corruption Index 40.00 39.61 39.39 39.16 38.94 35.77 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 71.00 76.97 75.98 74.99 74.01 77.69 [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.97 3.86 3.86 3.86 3.86 3.9 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 90.00 92.33 92.33 92.33 92.33 93.68 [+]
Steel Production 117.40 89.14 87.36 86.83 86.67 86.6 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Retail Sales YoY 7.40 6.99 6.93 6.94 6.94 6.94 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 836912.00 854301 861988 867666 871024 878543 SRB Million [+]
Retail Sales Mom -4.70 -0.08 0.44 0.37 0.34 0.35 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.17 1.18 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 USD/Liter [+]
Consumer Spending 769121.70 745444 752756 768600 778531 761256 RSD Million [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 37.80 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 17.90 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 19.90 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Serbia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Serbia economy. 1/21/2017