Serbia | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.00 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 13.80 16 13.4 12.5 15 13 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.40 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 2.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.00 4 3.75 3.75 3.5 2.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -514.40 -342 -339 -339 -339 -339 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 73.40 84.15 74.45 64.75 55.05 22.69 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Stock Market 716.75 700 693 686 679 572 points [+]
Currency 116.98 120 121 122 123 141 [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.00 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.50 2.2 2 2.3 2.3 2.9 percent [+]
GDP 37.16 42.92 44.45 39.51 49.12 75.25 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 822671.60 770080 816145 852612 865728 930981 RSD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 200862.80 175796 198242 202939 203213 231018 RSD Million [+]
GDP per capita 5661.11 5637 5659 5680 5702 5850 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 12867.12 12919 12993 13066 13140 14422 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 81603.20 31121 43184 41869 40599 28085 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 39876.90 31036 39227 42735 46163 45127 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 162123.40 161252 164528 159062 164387 163785 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 102946.00 96756 100305 96806 100256 99989 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Services 131505.70 114285 122527 125211 128390 126160 RSD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 13.80 16 13.4 12.5 15 13 percent [+]
Employed Persons 2814000.00 2785874 2937929 2968871 2929725 3169770 [+]
Unemployed Persons 700.95 708 706 705 705 705 Thousand [+]
Wages 41508.00 46059 47182 46318 46863 46742 RSD/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 249.69 242 242 242 242 234 EUR/Month [+]
Population 7.08 7.07 7.06 7.05 7.04 6.96 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 61.60 61.57 61.57 61.57 61.57 61.79 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 64.9 64.9 64.9 64.9 65.14 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 54.10 54.87 55 55.2 55.83 57.67 percent [+]
Labour Costs 99.09 103 102 102 102 102 Index Points [+]
Employment Rate 45.90 47.13 46.38 46.57 49.26 54.14 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 36.10 38.5 42.96 38.09 35.96 37.76 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 2.40 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 2.4 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 188.30 189 191 192 193 198 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.40 0.18 0.34 0.3 0.27 0.27 percent [+]
Food Inflation 1.20 2.13 2.68 2.84 2.94 3.02 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 170.00 171 172 172 172 172 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 4.00 4 3.75 3.75 3.5 2.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 144641.00 148838 148378 148677 148691 148679 RSD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 9854.30 9899 9841 9830 9828 9828 EUR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 2.50 2.49 2.49 2.49 2.49 2.49 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 578343.00 599983 616961 634415 651724 847733 RSD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 759476.00 781642 790909 802341 813843 951663 RSD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2158335.00 2193822 2223947 2258326 2293242 2710025 RSD Million [+]
Interbank Rate 3.55 3.5 3.51 3.51 3.51 3.51 percent [+]
Lending Rate 5.50 5.62 5.97 6.54 7.08 7.86 percent [+]
Loans To Private Sector 996811.00 996153 995322 996122 997115 1005945 SRB Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -514.40 -342 -339 -339 -339 -339 USD Million [+]
Exports 1237.00 1278 1285 1288 1287 1287 USD Million [+]
Imports 1751.20 1616 1615 1613 1614 1614 USD Million [+]
Current Account -42.00 -174 -170 -166 -162 -121 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.80 -7.75 -7.17 -6.6 -6.02 -7.35 percent [+]
External Debt 25819.50 25818 25792 25773 25756 25615 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows -39.00 -72.23 -93.64 -58.12 -73.39 -51.23 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 18.51 18.05 18.33 18.5 18.26 18.38 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 119.26 107 107 107 107 107 EUR Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 BBL/D/1K [+]
Weapons Sales 19.00 19.55 16.23 12.9 13.03 18.27 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 0.09 0.61 0.5 0.39 0.27 0.27 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 86936.00 82756 77540 118282 122294 102278 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 73.40 84.15 74.45 64.75 55.05 22.69 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.90 -4.51 -3.95 -3.39 -2.83 -2.72 percent of GDP [+]
Government Debt 3089477.59 3146117 3184186 3206518 3219521 3237854 RSD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 877.20 921 918 914 914 915 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 168109.50 153333 171256 153422 171168 170653 RSD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Industrial Production 3.90 1.68 2.1 2.25 2.28 2.28 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 8.80 4.23 2.96 2.23 1.85 1.43 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 47.00 57.81 56.65 55.5 54.35 64.5 [+]
Corruption Index 40.00 39.61 39.39 39.16 38.94 35.77 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 72.00 76.97 75.98 74.99 74.01 77.69 [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.97 3.86 3.86 3.86 3.86 3.9 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 90.00 92.33 92.33 92.33 92.33 93.68 [+]
Steel Production 87.20 87.52 86.77 87.3 87.51 87.61 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Retail Sales YoY 6.80 6.99 6.93 6.94 6.94 6.94 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 845596.00 851553 858004 862959 865187 870057 SRB Million [+]
Retail Sales Mom 3.20 -0.08 0.44 0.37 0.34 0.35 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.24 1.18 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 USD/Liter [+]
Consumer Spending 769121.70 745444 752756 768600 778531 761256 RSD Million [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 37.80 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 17.90 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 19.90 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Serbia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Serbia economy. 2/27/2017