Serbia | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.00 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.76 0.7 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 13.80 17.5 18.7 17.1 12.53 15.9 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.50 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.6 2.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.00 4 3.5 3.5 3 2.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -380.50 -350 -356 -355 -355 -355 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 73.40 55.05 51.85 48.65 45.45 22.69 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Stock Market 714.78 657 650 643 637 531 points [+]
Currency 114.63 116 117 118 119 138 [+]
GDP Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.00 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.76 0.7 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.60 2.1 2.2 2 2.3 2.9 percent [+]
GDP 36.51 41.4 42.92 44.45 36.97 75.25 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 790448.60 848825 770080 816145 852612 930981 RSD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 186520.90 209753 175796 198242 202939 231018 RSD Million [+]
GDP per capita 5659.33 5702 5716 5729 5742 5850 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 12863.08 13140 13217 13294 13372 14422 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 58775.40 55273 31205 43268 41952 28135 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 38306.50 46159 31036 39227 42735 45127 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 165368.40 164623 161252 164528 159062 163785 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 100407.20 100355 96756 100305 96806 99989 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Services 121071.40 128970 114285 122527 125211 126160 RSD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 13.80 17.5 18.7 17.1 12.53 15.9 percent [+]
Employed Persons 2761500.00 2783352 2785874 2937929 2968871 3169770 [+]
Unemployed Persons 684.82 687 691 691 690 690 Thousand [+]
Wages 45281.00 45609 45943 45783 45860 45839 RSD/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 233.37 233 233 233 233 233 EUR/Month [+]
Population 7.11 7.07 7.06 7.06 7.05 6.95 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 54.10 54.87 55 55.2 55.83 57.67 percent [+]
Labour Costs 104.75 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Employment Rate 45.90 47.13 46.38 46.57 49.26 54.14 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 36.10 38.5 42.96 38.09 35.96 37.76 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Inflation Rate 1.50 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.6 2.4 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 186.10 187 188 188 189 191 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.70 0.31 0.27 0.24 0.23 0.23 percent [+]
Food Inflation 0.80 2.82 3.48 3.91 4.07 4.25 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 165.40 165 166 166 166 166 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Interest Rate 4.00 4 3.5 3.5 3 2.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 141289.00 143649 143205 142358 143069 142913 RSD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 9706.70 9711 9739 9741 9740 9740 EUR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 2.50 2.49 2.49 2.49 2.49 2.49 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 551420.00 574674 593617 613181 633385 964953 RSD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 725116.00 724608 718426 715102 711862 673296 RSD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2095078.00 2094640 2091982 2089314 2086659 2053354 RSD Million [+]
Interbank Rate 3.45 3.47 3.39 3.37 3.36 3.36 percent [+]
Lending Rate 5.50 5.62 5.97 6.54 7.08 7.86 percent [+]
Loans To Private Sector 1005100.00 1010111 1014277 1018436 1022357 1056791 SRB Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Balance of Trade -380.50 -350 -356 -355 -355 -355 USD Million [+]
Exports 1273.00 1275 1262 1266 1269 1268 USD Million [+]
Imports 1651.30 1611 1630 1631 1629 1629 USD Million [+]
Current Account -145.40 -190 -190 -186 -181 -125 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.80 -6.02 -6.36 -6.69 -7.03 -7.35 percent [+]
External Debt 25819.50 25846 25818 25792 25773 25615 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows -87.00 -104 -49.39 -63.46 -32.62 -23.99 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 18.51 18.18 18.05 18.33 18.5 18.38 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 109.90 108 107 107 107 107 EUR Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 BBL/D/1K [+]
Weapons Sales 19.00 19.55 16.23 12.9 13.03 18.27 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 0.09 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 133429.00 82756 77540 118282 122294 102278 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 73.40 55.05 51.85 48.65 45.45 22.69 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.90 -2.83 -2.81 -2.8 -2.79 -2.72 percent of GDP [+]
Government Debt 2990198.51 2988985 2989552 2988948 2988487 2987865 RSD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 877.20 921 918 914 914 915 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 171436.80 171346 153333 171256 153422 170653 RSD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Industrial Production 3.20 1.54 7.47 13.22 8.04 6.62 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.90 2.24 1.75 1.92 1.53 1.4 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 47.00 58.96 56.65 55.5 54.35 64.5 [+]
Corruption Index 40.00 38.94 38.7 38.45 38.21 35.77 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 71.00 74.01 74.26 74.51 74.77 77.69 [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.97 3.86 3.86 3.86 3.86 3.9 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 90.00 92.33 92.33 92.33 92.33 93.68 [+]
Steel Production 103.40 94.76 89.14 87.36 86.83 86.6 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Retail Sales YoY 5.20 5.47 5.64 5.61 5.61 5.61 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 831365.00 842156 854301 861988 867666 878543 SRB Million [+]
Retail Sales Mom -3.90 0.63 0.51 0.28 0.35 0.34 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.15 1.12 1.1 1.11 1.11 1.11 USD/Liter [+]
Consumer Spending 731356.00 776670 743230 748752 768194 755860 RSD Million [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 37.80 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 17.90 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 19.90 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Serbia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Serbia economy. 12/7/2016