Serbia | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.5 0.75 0.8 0.6 0.7 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 13.00 16 13.4 12.5 15 13 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.20 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 2.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.00 4 3.75 3.75 3.5 2.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -319.10 -381 -377 -380 -380 -380 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 73.40 84.15 74.45 64.75 55.05 22.69 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Stock Market 739.44 712 704 697 683 575 points [+]
Currency 113.77 118 119 120 123 140 [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.5 0.75 0.8 0.6 0.7 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.50 2.2 2 2.3 2.3 2.9 percent [+]
GDP 37.16 42.92 44.45 39.51 49.12 75.25 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 844891.90 773355 806011 829785 844936 834148 RSD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 200196.20 169657 187881 200251 199287 196387 RSD Million [+]
GDP per capita 5661.11 5637 5659 5680 5702 5850 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 12867.12 12919 12993 13066 13140 14422 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 74981.00 52264 59833 79561 74124 72025 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 40354.40 27179 36539 38536 39234 38134 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 168406.30 163909 166408 163060 167563 166572 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 109675.70 106403 109628 106450 109582 109330 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Services 136439.70 119623 127038 134326 138158 136971 RSD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 13.00 16 13.4 12.5 15 13 percent [+]
Employed Persons 2731400.00 2706675 2708167 2708077 2708082 2708082 [+]
Unemployed Persons 693.86 692 691 691 691 691 Thousand [+]
Wages 46990.00 46080 46716 46048 46577 46459 RSD/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 249.69 242 242 242 242 234 EUR/Month [+]
Population 7.08 7.07 7.06 7.05 7.04 6.96 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 61.60 61.57 61.57 61.57 61.57 61.79 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 64.9 64.9 64.9 64.9 65.14 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 31.20 30.46 26.8 25.62 28.24 26.05 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 52.30 50.92 51.49 52.34 51.81 50.85 percent [+]
Labour Costs 108.04 103 104 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Employment Rate 45.50 45.55 48.31 48.54 47.36 50.63 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 3.20 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 2.4 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 189.60 190 192 193 195 200 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.70 0.21 0.37 0.31 0.28 0.28 percent [+]
Food Inflation 2.20 2.24 2.83 3.01 3.12 3.2 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 172.00 173 174 174 173 173 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 4.00 4 3.75 3.75 3.5 2.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 145195.00 146816 146187 146352 146373 146367 RSD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 9759.40 9821 9747 9733 9730 9729 EUR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 2.50 2.49 2.49 2.49 2.49 2.49 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 3.56 3.5 3.55 3.57 3.57 3.58 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 574522.00 586234 600520 615722 630807 802456 RSD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 758208.00 768257 776299 787153 798194 930838 RSD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2160084.00 2183936 2213100 2246934 2281301 2691826 RSD Million [+]
Lending Rate 5.50 5.62 5.97 6.54 7.08 7.86 percent [+]
Loans To Private Sector 999667.00 998946 999186 1000577 1002049 1014764 SRB Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -319.10 -381 -377 -380 -380 -380 USD Million [+]
Exports 995.90 1122 1090 1106 1108 1107 USD Million [+]
Imports 1315.00 1553 1481 1503 1509 1506 USD Million [+]
Current Account -273.00 -216 -201 -200 -205 -238 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.70 -7.72 -7.13 -6.54 -5.95 -7.32 percent [+]
External Debt 25727.00 25669 25634 25604 25577 25360 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows -268.00 -189 -215 -161 -181 -140 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 18.71 18.97 18.87 18.57 18.61 18.6 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 0.09 0.61 0.5 0.39 0.27 0.27 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 86936.00 82756 77540 118282 122294 102278 [+]
Weapons Sales 19.00 19.55 16.23 12.9 13.03 18.27 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 119.26 107 107 107 107 107 EUR Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 73.40 84.15 74.45 64.75 55.05 22.69 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.90 -4.51 -3.95 -3.39 -2.83 -2.72 percent of GDP [+]
Government Debt 3037506.55 3045698 3032977 3029401 3028336 3025491 RSD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 877.20 921 918 914 914 915 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 194887.10 177447 194799 177535 194711 194204 RSD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Industrial Production 2.80 2.51 2.32 2.29 2.29 2.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 8.20 5.42 3.57 2.6 2.09 1.53 percent [+]
Steel Production 79.90 85.29 85.48 86.34 86.65 86.81 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Ease of Doing Business 47.00 57.81 56.65 55.5 54.35 64.5 [+]
Corruption Index 42.00 43 43 44 44 48 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 72.00 76.97 75.98 74.99 74.01 77.69 [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.97 3.86 3.86 3.86 3.86 3.9 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 90.00 92.33 92.33 92.33 92.33 93.68 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Retail Sales YoY 4.10 4.29 4.4 4.38 4.38 4.38 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 850601.00 854243 862675 868888 871997 878446 SRB Million [+]
Retail Sales Mom -24.40 6.72 0.15 -0.16 0.46 0.33 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.23 1.23 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.22 USD/Liter [+]
Consumer Spending 789310.30 756576 763529 794444 808118 838993 RSD Million [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 37.80 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 17.90 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 19.90 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Serbia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Serbia economy. 3/28/2017