Serbia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Serbia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Serbia economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 13.00 12.4 12 11.7 11.5 10.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 4.00 3 2.8 2.9 3 2.6 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.00 3.75 3.75 3.5 3.5 2.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -469.70 -409 -409 -410 -411 -411 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 73.40 74.45 64.75 55.05 51.85 22.69 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Stock Market 739.88 725 718 696 703 586 points [+]
Currency 109.64 117 118 121 120 139 [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.00 2 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.9 percent [+]
GDP 37.16 44.45 39.97 49.12 38.5 75.25 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 844891.90 806011 829785 844936 781284 834148 RSD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 200196.20 187881 200251 199287 171934 196387 RSD Million [+]
GDP per capita 5663.40 5647 5668 5689 5699 5762 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 13277.75 13148 13356 13563 13577 13501 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 74981.00 59833 79561 74124 54164 72025 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 40354.40 36539 38536 39234 27295 38134 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 168406.30 166408 163060 167563 163771 166572 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 109675.70 109628 106450 109582 106496 109330 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Services 136439.70 127038 134326 138158 124992 136971 RSD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 13.00 12.4 12 11.7 11.5 10.5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 2731400.00 2708167 2708077 2708082 2708082 2708082 [+]
Unemployed Persons 696.58 696 696 696 696 696 Thousand [+]
Wages 47814.00 47130 46571 47037 47000 46984 RSD/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 249.69 249 250 249 245 244 EUR/Month [+]
Population 7.08 7.06 7.05 7.04 7.03 6.96 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 61.60 61.57 61.57 61.57 61.87 61.79 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 64.9 64.9 64.9 65.09 65.14 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 52.30 51.49 52.34 51.81 50.76 50.85 percent [+]
Labour Costs 104.10 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Employment Rate 45.50 48.31 48.54 47.36 47.73 50.63 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 31.20 26.8 25.62 28.24 26.69 26.05 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 4.00 3 2.8 2.9 3 2.6 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 191.50 193 195 197 199 206 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.80 0.39 0.37 0.33 0.32 0.32 percent [+]
Food Inflation 4.60 5.96 7.07 7.54 7.73 7.9 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 173.00 174 174 174 174 174 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 4.00 3.75 3.75 3.5 3.5 2.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 146340.00 145905 146087 146105 146099 146098 RSD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 9409.40 9340 9273 9271 9275 9277 EUR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 2.50 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 3.54 3.53 3.54 3.54 3.55 3.55 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 578695.00 594341 608704 622935 637055 785315 RSD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 772705.00 779599 790154 801016 811901 931650 RSD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2182729.00 2211889 2245670 2279965 2314294 2689730 RSD Million [+]
Lending Rate 5.50 5.58 5.91 6.27 6.56 6.89 percent [+]
Loans To Private Sector 1005550.00 1008581 1011601 1014368 1016956 1037386 SRB Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -469.70 -409 -409 -410 -411 -411 USD Million [+]
Exports 1524.30 1346 1367 1367 1369 1369 USD Million [+]
Imports 1994.00 1725 1719 1736 1737 1736 USD Million [+]
Current Account -383.20 -299 -268 -257 -253 -248 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.70 -7.13 -6.54 -5.95 -6.29 -7.32 percent [+]
External Debt 26592.10 26857 26891 26987 27095 27814 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows -249.00 -263 -202 -214 -176 -159 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 18.71 18.87 18.57 18.61 18.89 18.6 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 167.66 177 176 177 177 177 EUR Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 0.09 0.5 0.39 0.27 0.27 0.27 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 98429.00 127116 115109 91287 99273 103830 [+]
Weapons Sales 19.00 19.55 16.23 12.9 13.03 18.27 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 73.40 74.45 64.75 55.05 51.85 22.69 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.90 -3.58 -2.86 -2.15 -2.02 -1.38 percent of GDP [+]
Government Debt 3043132.30 3028807 3021480 3018462 3016499 3013484 RSD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 877.20 921 918 914 914 915 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 194887.10 194799 177535 194711 177622 194204 RSD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Industrial Production 0.90 1.78 2.14 2.22 2.23 2.22 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 9.30 5.15 3.5 2.6 2.12 1.59 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 47.00 50 51 51 54 82 [+]
Corruption Index 42.00 43 44 44 44 48 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 72.00 72 72 72 72 72 [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.97 3.86 3.86 3.86 3.89 3.9 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 90.00 95 95 95 90 88 [+]
Steel Production 140.90 117 109 106 106 105 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Retail Sales YoY 5.70 4.81 4.98 4.95 4.95 4.95 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 864877.00 883173 896229 905217 911328 923922 SRB Million [+]
Retail Sales Mom 17.60 -1.47 -0.52 0.43 0.13 0.15 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.30 1.33 1.34 1.33 1.33 1.33 USD/Liter [+]
Consumer Spending 789310.30 763529 794444 808118 781522 838993 RSD Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Home Ownership Rate 81.10 81.36 81.36 81.36 81.36 81.36 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00 14.99 14.99 14.99 15 15 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 37.80 38.01 37.98 37.94 37.83 36.78 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 17.90 17.79 17.82 17.84 17.87 18.24 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 19.90 19.74 19.48 19.22 19.21 19.02 percent [+]