Serbia | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 13.00 12.4 12 11.7 11.5 10.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.60 3 2.8 2.9 3 2.6 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.00 3.75 3.75 3.5 3.5 2.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -365.80 -368 -370 -370 -370 -370 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 73.40 74.45 64.75 55.05 51.85 22.69 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Stock Market 732.31 725 718 696 703 586 points [+]
Currency 114.98 117 118 121 120 139 [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.50 2 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.9 percent [+]
GDP 37.16 44.45 39.97 49.12 38.5 75.25 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 844891.90 806011 829785 844936 781284 834148 RSD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 200196.20 187881 200251 199287 171934 196387 RSD Million [+]
GDP per capita 5661.11 5645 5666 5686 5697 5758 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 12867.12 12745 12946 13148 13163 13122 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 74981.00 59833 79561 74124 54164 72025 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 40354.40 36539 38536 39234 27295 38134 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 168406.30 166408 163060 167563 163771 166572 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 109675.70 109628 106450 109582 106496 109330 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Services 136439.70 127038 134326 138158 124992 136971 RSD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 13.00 12.4 12 11.7 11.5 10.5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 2731400.00 2708167 2708077 2708082 2708082 2708082 [+]
Unemployed Persons 693.86 691 691 691 691 691 Thousand [+]
Wages 46990.00 46716 46048 46577 46451 46459 RSD/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 249.69 249 250 249 245 244 EUR/Month [+]
Population 7.08 7.06 7.05 7.04 7.03 6.96 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 61.60 61.57 61.57 61.57 61.87 61.79 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 64.9 64.9 64.9 65.09 65.14 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 31.20 26.8 25.62 28.24 26.69 26.05 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 52.30 51.49 52.34 51.81 50.76 50.85 percent [+]
Labour Costs 108.04 104 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Employment Rate 45.50 48.31 48.54 47.36 47.73 50.63 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.60 3 2.8 2.9 3 2.6 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 190.00 192 193 195 196 200 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 0.37 0.3 0.28 0.28 0.28 percent [+]
Food Inflation 2.80 3.73 4.14 4.34 4.42 4.48 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 172.20 173 172 172 172 172 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 4.00 3.75 3.75 3.5 3.5 2.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 145195.00 146187 146352 146373 146368 146367 RSD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 9730.30 9616 9598 9599 9600 9601 EUR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 2.50 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 3.53 3.53 3.54 3.55 3.55 3.55 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 574522.00 600520 615722 630807 645769 802456 RSD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 758208.00 776299 787153 798194 809248 930838 RSD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2160084.00 2213100 2246934 2281301 2315703 2691826 RSD Million [+]
Lending Rate 5.50 6.41 6.87 7.2 7.41 7.47 percent [+]
Loans To Private Sector 999667.00 999186 1000577 1002049 1003466 1014764 SRB Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -365.80 -368 -370 -370 -370 -370 USD Million [+]
Exports 1213.40 1160 1187 1195 1191 1190 USD Million [+]
Imports 1579.30 1515 1541 1548 1545 1544 USD Million [+]
Current Account -162.90 -204 -205 -210 -216 -243 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.70 -7.13 -6.54 -5.95 -6.29 -7.32 percent [+]
External Debt 25727.00 25634 25604 25577 25552 25360 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows -49.00 -184 -119 -146 -104 -104 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 18.71 18.87 18.57 18.61 18.89 18.6 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 0.09 0.5 0.39 0.27 0.27 0.27 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 86936.00 125344 116525 80576 89170 96643 [+]
Weapons Sales 19.00 19.55 16.23 12.9 13.03 18.27 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 119.26 119 118 118 118 118 EUR Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 73.40 74.45 64.75 55.05 51.85 22.69 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.90 -3.58 -2.86 -2.15 -2.02 -1.38 percent of GDP [+]
Government Debt 3041907.09 3048908 3048020 3048796 3048925 3048591 RSD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 877.20 921 918 914 914 915 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 194887.10 194799 177535 194711 177622 194204 RSD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Industrial Production -1.70 0.73 1.87 2.22 2.29 2.28 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 8.10 3.79 2.69 2.14 1.84 1.52 percent [+]
Steel Production 79.90 85.48 86.34 86.65 86.76 86.81 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Ease of Doing Business 47.00 50 51 51 54 82 [+]
Corruption Index 42.00 43 44 44 44 48 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 72.00 72 72 72 72 72 [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.97 3.86 3.86 3.86 3.89 3.9 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 90.00 95 95 95 90 88 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Retail Sales YoY 1.10 1.37 1.41 1.4 1.4 1.4 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 850601.00 862675 868888 871997 874828 878446 SRB Million [+]
Retail Sales Mom -2.90 -1.57 -0.08 0.38 0.17 0.19 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.24 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 USD/Liter [+]
Consumer Spending 789310.30 763529 794444 808118 781522 838993 RSD Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Home Ownership Rate 81.10 81.36 81.36 81.36 81.36 81.36 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00 14.99 14.99 14.99 15 15 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 37.80 38.01 37.98 37.94 37.83 36.78 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 17.90 17.79 17.82 17.84 17.87 18.24 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 19.90 19.74 19.48 19.22 19.21 19.02 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Serbia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Serbia economy. 4/25/2017