Ukraine | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Ukraine including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Ukraine economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.90 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 10.00 9.7 9.5 9.8 10 8.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 15.10 13.5 10.2 7.8 7.4 4.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 13.00 12 12 10 9 5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -336.20 -274 -267 -399 -263 -222 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 79.00 78.71 76.65 74.58 72.18 79.04 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 26.54 27.26 27.53 28.34 28.07 32.39 [+]
Stock Market 276.22 270 267 259 262 218 points [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.90 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.80 4.6 3.2 3 2.4 2.2 percent [+]
GDP 90.62 99.42 95.33 103 87.8 119 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 268918.00 240586 243954 248101 231893 263544 UAH Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 58084.00 35880 37972 50643 40808 56692 UAH Million [+]
GDP per capita 2825.85 2852 2754 2611 2629 2960 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 7456.93 7350 7330 7478 6999 7853 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 35806.00 10894 52216 29680 24207 32833 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Construction 7240.00 6062 5886 7485 4161 8731 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 28864.00 27923 26891 30168 25465 34128 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Mining 12481.00 11830 12043 12123 12161 12143 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 13999.00 13264 13698 15162 13650 16907 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Services 31534.00 36453 33711 31473 29609 35675 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Transport 21099.00 20921 21552 22359 19128 24737 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 923.00 914 907 907 903 905 UAH Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 10.00 9.7 9.5 9.8 10 8.2 percent [+]
Unemployed Persons 406.80 350 310 370 355 370 Thousand [+]
Wages 6752.00 5824 5923 6223 6597 8323 UAH/Month [+]
Wage Growth 37.24 18 16 15 45.47 6 percent [+]
Population 42.59 42.51 41.2 39.89 39.89 42.37 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58.1 58.1 58.1 57.82 57.85 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Wages High Skilled 4310.00 5210 5435 5661 5886 8362 UAH/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 2640.00 2941 3106 3276 2351 4017 UAH/Month [+]
Employed Persons 15477.40 15549 15491 15840 15423 17084 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 63.60 64.19 64.1 63.66 63.7 63.82 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.70 62.7 62.5 62.4 61.71 63.5 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 7771.40 11800 11900 12000 7778 16000 UAH/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 7547.70 7133 6910 7024 6965 6985 UAH/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 15.10 13.5 10.2 7.8 7.4 4.7 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.80 100 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 106.30 107 106 106 105 104 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 6.30 6.7 6.5 6.3 5.36 3.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices 294.30 296 308 317 328 415 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 35.80 31.3 28.1 25.5 23.2 10.2 percent [+]
Import Prices 116.80 123 128 131 133 141 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 7.20 8.7 8.3 7.7 9.46 3.9 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 102.10 101 101 100 101 100 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 127.10 155 170 181 188 206 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.80 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.38 0.6 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 13.00 12 12 10 9 5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 15.75 15.22 14.71 14.46 14.33 14.22 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 290922.00 285600 280558 281916 279248 281282 UAH Million [+]
Money Supply M1 510290.00 515951 523957 532153 540317 626666 UAH Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1074547.00 1087013 1100920 1114234 1127304 1259598 UAH Million [+]
Money Supply M3 1074109.00 1086035 1099363 1112258 1124896 1251946 UAH Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 15120.00 14947 14942 14949 14950 14950 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 1741749.00 1660363 1687515 1728884 1730568 2127762 UAH Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 718731.01 732577 739888 747228 754572 831273 UAH Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 11.50 12.74 12.05 11.37 11.35 11.8 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1106938.00 1106588 1105294 1104909 1104791 1104759 UAH Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -336.20 -274 -267 -399 -263 -222 USD Million [+]
Exports 3242.40 2900 3200 3620 3217 3900 USD Million [+]
Imports 3578.90 3100 3500 3700 3481 4200 USD Million [+]
Current Account -399.00 -323 -329 -330 -330 -330 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.60 -2.7 -3.51 -4.32 -4.65 -3.98 percent [+]
External Debt 113483.00 111333 110942 109867 109158 105164 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows -2258.00 -1602 -1975 -1898 -1737 -1862 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 25.50 26.48 26.92 27.22 27.44 27.62 Tonnes [+]
Terms Of Trade 108.80 105 106 106 106 106 Index Points [+]
Terrorism Index 7.13 8.01 8.56 9.12 8.94 7.19 [+]
Weapons Sales 323.00 457 486 515 593 549 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 30.00 29.97 29.97 29.97 29.97 29.97 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 759.00 916 930 932 927 927 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 79.00 78.71 76.65 74.58 72.18 79.04 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.60 -6.45 -6.43 -6.41 -5.95 -5.48 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -1370.89 -5588 -6973 -5854 -6042 -5981 UAH Million [+]
Government Spending 66389.00 51498 44748 63312 55771 64075 UAH Million [+]
Government Revenues 142314.46 397460 388321 327502 350497 351251 UAH Million [+]
Government Debt 699600259.29 730585284 761146502 791389363 821315920 1130555052 UAH Thousand [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 124236.00 405077 389776 324824 352786 352031 UAH Million [+]
Military Expenditure 4438.30 4546 4558 4570 4630 4351 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Industrial Production -2.70 -0.5 0.2 0.5 -1.07 2.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 8.90 -2.4 3.6 0.7 -0.02 0.8 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -3.20 2.29 2.13 2.11 2.11 2.11 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 13112.00 2472 40053 14700 9751 16286 UAH Million [+]
Mining Production -11.50 -11.25 -11.9 -12.09 -12.13 -12.15 percent [+]
Steel Production 2105.00 2083 2038 2056 2064 2059 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Corruption Index 29.00 27 27 27 27 28 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 131.00 131 132 132 132 126 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 80.00 84 84 84 85 93 [+]
Electricity Production 13269.40 11539 13918 14830 13350 13652 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.00 3.99 3.99 3.99 4.01 4.02 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 85.00 84 84 84 79 81 [+]
Business Confidence 113.30 113 111 111 110 108 [+]
Cement Production 739.00 768 787 800 809 827 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 55.50 54.93 54.97 54.99 54.99 54.99 [+]
Retail Sales Mom 15.60 1.5 -4.71 9.8 1.53 4.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales Yoy 8.70 6.2 7.29 4.5 7.72 3.2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 189815.00 157902 183524 203584 169527 218805 UAH Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 13.87 13.35 13.03 12.75 12.47 9.38 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 103375.73 103935 104547 104972 105302 106296 UAH Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 18.00 17.99 17.99 17.99 17.99 17.99 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 18.00 18.52 18.37 18.22 18.1 17.35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 22.00 37.65 29.82 22 22 21.96 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.00 35.85 28.92 22 22 22 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 0.00 1.8 0.9 0 0 0 percent [+]