Ukraine | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.9 0.4 0.8 -1.02 1.1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 9.30 10 10.2 9.7 9.36 8.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 12.40 12.8 14.1 13.5 10.2 4.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 14.00 13.5 12 11 10 5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -295.00 -326 -311 -305 -302 -222 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 79.00 74.58 72.18 69.77 67.36 79.04 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Currency 25.65 26.23 26.49 26.75 27.01 31.16 [+]
Stock Market 266.52 264 261 259 256 213 points [+]
GDP Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.9 0.4 0.8 -1.02 1.1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.80 0.8 1.5 1.2 1.5 2.2 percent [+]
GDP 90.62 97.98 98.7 99.42 91.13 119 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 228252.00 234219 237733 240586 243954 263544 UAH Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 33849.00 48836 27192 35880 37972 56692 UAH Million [+]
GDP per capita 2824.44 2613 2563 2512 2461 2960 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 7449.77 7262 7256 7350 6644 7853 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 10840.00 29299 7337 10894 52216 32833 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Construction 5639.00 7075 3488 6062 5886 8731 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 27110.00 29635 24785 27923 26891 34128 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Mining 11949.00 12245 11309 11830 12043 12143 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 12791.00 14678 13615 13264 13698 16907 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Services 34618.00 29974 31048 36453 33711 35675 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Transport 20312.00 21561 18551 20921 21552 24737 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 1305.00 1308 1258 1311 1270 1297 UAH Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.30 10 10.2 9.7 9.36 8.2 percent [+]
Unemployed Persons 316.20 400 440 350 310 370 Thousand [+]
Wages 5358.00 5333 5526 5824 5923 8323 UAH/Month [+]
Wage Growth 23.37 22.88 20 18 16 6 percent [+]
Population 42.76 39.89 39.7 39.51 39.32 42.37 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 56.00 56 56 56 56 56 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Wages High Skilled 4310.00 4760 4985 5210 5435 8362 UAH/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 2640.00 2726 2880 2941 3106 4017 UAH/Month [+]
Employed Persons 15737.80 15714 15658 15790 15804 17084 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 64.70 64.38 64.07 64.69 64.93 64.59 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.40 62.1 62.5 62.7 62.5 63.5 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 9950.00 10726 11200 11800 11900 16000 UAH/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 6480.00 6843 6525 6803 6559 6655 UAH/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Inflation Rate 12.40 12.8 14.1 13.5 10.2 4.7 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 102.80 102 101 100 101 101 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 106.50 107 107 107 106 104 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 6.50 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.5 3.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices 262.40 276 289 301 313 436 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 29.20 30.43 31 28.06 25.48 25.25 percent [+]
Food Inflation 4.90 5.2 9.2 8.7 8.3 3.9 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 101.00 101 100 101 101 100 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 100.10 101 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 97.20 96.31 96.25 96.28 96.29 96.29 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 2.80 1.9 1 0.2 0.7 0.6 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Interest Rate 14.00 13.5 12 11 10 5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 16.41 16.23 15.82 15.09 14.65 14.19 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 293320.00 299856 297316 305281 302418 303897 UAH Million [+]
Money Supply M1 494015.00 505267 521078 537154 553515 799950 UAH Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1054491.00 1077691 1102028 1126884 1152274 1537401 UAH Million [+]
Money Supply M3 1054488.00 1060116 1071395 1082032 1092022 1146199 UAH Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 15270.00 15218 15059 15046 15049 15050 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 1634694.00 1646557 1671448 1660363 1687515 2127762 UAH Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 734667.63 744589 756865 769420 781915 942748 UAH Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 13.01 14.08 13.98 13.88 13.78 14.24 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1071020.00 1064746 1059513 1059028 1058810 1058770 UAH Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Balance of Trade -295.00 -326 -311 -305 -302 -222 USD Million [+]
Exports 3155.50 3580 3030 2900 3200 3900 USD Million [+]
Imports 3450.90 3400 3200 3100 3500 4200 USD Million [+]
Current Account -234.00 717 451 372 363 383 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -0.20 -0.34 -0.44 -0.55 -0.65 -2.58 percent [+]
External Debt 114966.00 109009 107319 105533 103675 92269 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows -575.00 -962 -764 -810 -924 -886 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 25.82 26.01 26.62 27.07 27.46 27.97 Tonnes [+]
Terms Of Trade 103.00 102 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Terrorism Index 7.13 9.12 8.94 8.76 8.58 7.19 [+]
Weapons Sales 323.00 457 486 515 593 549 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 33.00 33.11 33.11 33.11 33.11 33.11 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 759.00 973 937 916 930 927 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 79.00 74.58 72.18 69.77 67.36 79.04 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.60 -3.4 -3.43 -3.45 -3.48 -3.51 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -31692.20 -18183 -12588 -11046 -10753 -10729 UAH Million [+]
Government Spending 52282.00 64081 48409 51498 44748 64075 UAH Million [+]
Government Revenues 525251.75 305887 298892 345791 330478 329008 UAH Million [+]
Government Debt 556073015.19 561266748 565725560 569088562 571675534 580076371 UAH Thousand [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 556943.60 297073 298887 349229 328679 329097 UAH Million [+]
Military Expenditure 4438.30 4546 4558 4570 4630 4351 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Industrial Production 0.80 -2.1 -1.1 -0.5 0.2 2.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 5.70 1.5 4.5 -2.4 3.6 0.8 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 4.60 5.02 1.81 0.99 -0.53 -3.11 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -1825.00 3319 3438 3421 3424 3423 UAH Million [+]
Mining Production -5.40 -6.31 -7.15 -7.21 -7.3 -7.34 percent [+]
Steel Production 1931.00 1961 1897 1889 1907 1904 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Corruption Index 27.00 23.38 23.12 22.86 22.6 19.87 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 130.00 134 133 132 132 120 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 80.00 87.89 87.53 87.36 87.18 98.54 [+]
Electricity Production 14377.20 14880 14067 12862 13454 13671 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.00 4.02 4.02 4.02 4.02 4.02 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 85.00 76.64 76.64 76.64 77.86 77.13 [+]
Business Confidence 109.20 107 108 107 106 106 [+]
Cement Production 913.00 900 885 875 868 854 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 51.60 52.13 52.1 52.05 52.07 52.06 [+]
Retail Sales Mom 3.30 12.1 -2.7 1.5 1.5 4.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales Yoy 0.90 5 7.8 6.2 0.09 3.2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 154806.00 197655 159333 157902 183524 218805 UAH Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 13.06 13.25 13.4 13.71 14.03 17.14 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 100122.14 98871 98067 97271 96678 94777 UAH Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.91 0.9 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 22.00 22 22 22 22 22 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.00 22 22 22 22 22 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Ukraine including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Ukraine economy. 12/8/2016