Ukraine | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.90 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 10.00 10.2 9.7 9.5 9.8 8.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 14.20 14.1 13.5 10.2 7.8 4.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 14.00 13 12 12 10 5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -86.70 -219 -225 -226 -399 -222 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 79.00 80.77 78.71 76.65 74.58 79.04 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 27.13 27.44 27.71 27.99 28.53 32.6 [+]
Stock Market 272.06 272 269 266 261 220 points [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.90 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.80 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.7 2.2 percent [+]
GDP 90.62 98.7 99.42 95.06 103 119 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 268918.00 237733 240586 243954 248101 263544 UAH Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 58084.00 27192 35880 37972 50643 56692 UAH Million [+]
GDP per capita 2825.85 2885 2795 2704 2611 2960 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 7456.93 7256 7350 7216 7478 7853 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 35806.00 7337 10894 52216 29680 32833 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Construction 7240.00 3488 6062 5886 7485 8731 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 28864.00 24785 27923 26891 30168 34128 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Mining 12481.00 11309 11830 12043 12123 12143 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 13999.00 13615 13264 13698 15162 16907 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Services 31534.00 31048 36453 33711 31473 35675 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Transport 21099.00 18551 20921 21552 22359 24737 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 923.00 902 914 907 907 905 UAH Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 10.00 10.2 9.7 9.5 9.8 8.2 percent [+]
Unemployed Persons 439.30 440 350 310 370 370 Thousand [+]
Wages 6008.00 5526 5824 5923 6223 8323 UAH/Month [+]
Wage Growth 37.73 20 18 16 15 6 percent [+]
Population 42.59 43.83 42.51 41.2 39.89 42.37 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58.1 58.1 58.1 58.1 57.85 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Wages High Skilled 4310.00 4985 5210 5435 5661 8362 UAH/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 2640.00 2880 2941 3106 3276 4017 UAH/Month [+]
Employed Persons 15477.40 15430 15549 15491 15840 17084 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 63.60 63.58 64.19 64.1 63.66 63.82 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.70 62.5 62.7 62.5 62.4 63.5 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 7771.40 11200 11800 11900 12000 16000 UAH/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 7547.70 6697 7133 6910 7024 6985 UAH/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 14.20 14.1 13.5 10.2 7.8 4.7 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.00 101 100 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 106.60 107 107 106 106 104 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 6.20 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.3 3.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices 284.40 285 296 308 317 415 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 35.80 39.2 31.3 28.1 25.5 10.2 percent [+]
Import Prices 111.90 113 116 118 119 123 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 5.30 9.2 8.7 8.3 7.7 3.9 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 102.40 100 101 101 100 100 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 114.80 120 126 128 129 130 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.00 1 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.6 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 14.00 13 12 12 10 5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 15.97 16.22 15.57 15 14.67 14.34 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 291876.00 294980 290834 286328 287761 287240 UAH Million [+]
Money Supply M1 506391.00 513384 510998 507526 509258 509036 UAH Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1059637.00 1076460 1088263 1102306 1115781 1262950 UAH Million [+]
Money Supply M3 1060049.00 1078655 1089096 1102681 1115966 1260160 UAH Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 15459.70 15453 15440 15439 15439 15439 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 1741749.00 1671448 1660363 1687515 1728884 2127762 UAH Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 725511.21 734301 744251 753842 763044 869831 UAH Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 13.01 11.09 12.09 13.09 14.08 14.24 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1106938.00 1111166 1106588 1105294 1104909 1104759 UAH Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -86.70 -219 -225 -226 -399 -222 USD Million [+]
Exports 3025.70 3030 2900 3200 3620 3900 USD Million [+]
Imports 3112.40 3200 3100 3500 3700 4200 USD Million [+]
Current Account -26.00 -191 -221 -222 -221 -221 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.60 -1.89 -2.7 -3.51 -4.32 -3.98 percent [+]
External Debt 113483.00 112333 111333 110942 109867 105164 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows -2258.00 -1423 -1602 -1975 -1898 -1862 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 25.50 26.09 26.48 26.92 27.22 27.62 Tonnes [+]
Terms Of Trade 102.60 102 102 102 102 102 Index Points [+]
Terrorism Index 7.13 7.46 8.01 8.56 9.12 7.19 [+]
Weapons Sales 323.00 457 486 515 593 549 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 33.00 33.11 33.11 33.11 33.11 33.11 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 759.00 937 916 930 932 927 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 79.00 80.77 78.71 76.65 74.58 79.04 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.60 -3.73 -3.62 -3.51 -3.4 -3.51 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -25017.55 -21299 -4582 -6619 -5441 -5605 UAH Million [+]
Government Spending 66389.00 48409 51498 44748 63312 64075 UAH Million [+]
Government Revenues 72556.78 131505 402806 388003 315335 344814 UAH Million [+]
Government Debt 670640000.00 687649226 717786078 746978934 775876308 1099086878 UAH Thousand [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 46744.90 125695 408986 389537 318636 348894 UAH Million [+]
Military Expenditure 4438.30 4546 4558 4570 4630 4351 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Industrial Production -4.60 -1.1 -0.5 0.2 0.5 2.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -2.20 4.5 -2.4 3.6 0.7 0.8 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -3.20 3.03 2.29 2.13 2.11 2.11 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 13112.00 7656 2472 40053 14700 16286 UAH Million [+]
Mining Production -11.50 -11.04 -11.25 -11.9 -12.09 -12.15 percent [+]
Steel Production 1900.00 1915 1951 1918 1925 1928 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Corruption Index 29.00 27 27 27 27 28 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 131.00 137 136 135 134 120 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 80.00 87.71 87.53 87.36 87.18 98.54 [+]
Electricity Production 16581.70 15122 12537 13431 14883 14033 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.00 4.02 4.02 4.02 4.02 4.02 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 85.00 76.64 76.64 76.64 77.86 77.13 [+]
Business Confidence 108.70 108 107 106 106 106 [+]
Cement Production 342.00 449 567 648 705 829 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 56.20 56.09 55.61 55.57 55.6 55.6 [+]
Retail Sales Mom -3.70 -2.7 1.5 -4.51 9.8 4.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales Yoy -1.70 7.8 6.2 -1.95 4.5 3.2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 189815.00 159333 157902 183524 203584 218805 UAH Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 13.73 14.04 14.31 14.6 14.89 17.52 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 102453.88 102330 102683 102898 103087 103646 UAH Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.91 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 22.00 22 22 22 22 22 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.00 22 22 22 22 22 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Ukraine including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Ukraine economy. 3/27/2017