Ukraine | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.90 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 9.20 10.2 9.7 9.5 9.8 8.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 12.60 14.1 13.5 10.2 7.8 4.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 14.00 13 12 12 10 5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -561.70 -333 -322 -313 -399 -222 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 79.00 80.77 78.71 76.65 74.58 79.04 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 26.91 27.68 27.95 28.23 28.5 32.57 [+]
Stock Market 272.82 260 257 255 252 212 points [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.90 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.70 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.7 2.2 percent [+]
GDP 90.62 98.7 99.42 95.06 103 119 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 279756.00 237733 240586 243954 248101 263544 UAH Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 41490.00 27192 35880 37972 50643 56692 UAH Million [+]
GDP per capita 2825.85 2885 2795 2704 2611 2960 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 7456.93 7256 7350 7216 7478 7853 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 53863.00 7337 10894 52216 29680 32833 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Construction 5930.00 3488 6062 5886 7485 8731 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 25121.00 24785 27923 26891 30168 34128 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Mining 12268.00 11309 11830 12043 12123 12143 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 12317.00 13615 13264 13698 15162 16907 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Services 31216.00 31048 36453 33711 31473 35675 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Transport 20481.00 18551 20921 21552 22359 24737 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 1189.00 1258 1311 1270 1307 1297 UAH Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.20 10.2 9.7 9.5 9.8 8.2 percent [+]
Unemployed Persons 429.00 440 350 310 370 370 Thousand [+]
Wages 6475.00 5526 5824 5923 6223 8323 UAH/Month [+]
Wage Growth 23.80 20 18 16 15 6 percent [+]
Population 42.59 43.83 42.51 41.2 39.89 42.37 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58.1 58.1 58.1 58.1 57.85 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Wages High Skilled 4310.00 4985 5210 5435 5661 8362 UAH/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 2640.00 2880 2941 3106 3276 4017 UAH/Month [+]
Employed Persons 15675.70 15658 15790 15804 15840 17084 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 64.40 64.07 64.69 64.93 64.51 64.59 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.30 62.5 62.7 62.5 62.4 63.5 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 7771.40 11200 11800 11900 12000 16000 UAH/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 6480.00 6697 7133 6910 7024 6985 UAH/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 12.60 14.1 13.5 10.2 7.8 4.7 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.10 101 100 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 106.20 107 107 106 106 104 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 6.20 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.3 3.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices 275.90 285 296 308 317 415 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 35.80 39.2 31.3 28.1 25.5 10.2 percent [+]
Food Inflation 3.00 9.2 8.7 8.3 7.7 3.9 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 103.00 100 101 101 100 100 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 104.70 101 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 103.70 96.25 96.28 96.29 96.29 96.29 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.10 1 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.6 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 14.00 13 12 12 10 5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 16.58 16.26 15.49 14.94 14.63 14.33 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 294997.00 303547 303872 300986 303454 303421 UAH Million [+]
Money Supply M1 529928.00 543595 551410 552170 554786 555322 UAH Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1102391.00 1100240 1117495 1134528 1151171 1337371 UAH Million [+]
Money Supply M3 1066125.00 1087095 1098988 1113466 1127857 1285912 UAH Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 15445.00 15437 15420 15419 15419 15419 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 1625531.00 1671448 1660363 1687515 1728884 2127762 UAH Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 745380.91 756622 769442 782037 794609 944292 UAH Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 13.01 11.09 12.09 13.09 14.08 14.24 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1058688.00 1057436 1057027 1056807 1056755 1056762 UAH Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -561.70 -333 -322 -313 -399 -222 USD Million [+]
Exports 3621.20 3030 2900 3200 3620 3900 USD Million [+]
Imports 3856.70 3200 3100 3500 3700 4200 USD Million [+]
Current Account -292.00 -250 -259 -258 -258 -258 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -0.20 -1.69 -1.24 -0.79 -0.34 -2.58 percent [+]
External Debt 116015.00 107319 105533 103675 102010 92269 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows -575.00 -764 -810 -924 -908 -886 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 25.82 26.62 27.07 27.46 27.72 27.97 Tonnes [+]
Terms Of Trade 101.00 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Terrorism Index 7.13 7.46 8.01 8.56 9.12 7.19 [+]
Weapons Sales 323.00 457 486 515 593 549 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 33.00 33.11 33.11 33.11 33.11 33.11 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 759.00 937 916 930 932 927 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 79.00 80.77 78.71 76.65 74.58 79.04 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.60 -3.73 -3.62 -3.51 -3.4 -3.51 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 54682.59 19145 5595 5015 6276 6457 UAH Million [+]
Government Spending 47494.00 48409 51498 44748 63312 64075 UAH Million [+]
Government Revenues 782748.54 421892 376407 448900 444324 434806 UAH Million [+]
Government Debt 670645530.54 685938189 715863656 744837560 773513778 1094019693 UAH Thousand [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 835589.80 424623 376594 452567 446420 437468 UAH Million [+]
Military Expenditure 4438.30 4546 4558 4570 4630 4351 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Industrial Production 4.50 -1.1 -0.5 0.2 0.5 2.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 1.90 4.5 -2.4 3.6 0.7 0.8 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 4.60 0.95 0.24 -0.49 -1.6 -3.31 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 42412.00 3438 3421 3424 3423 3423 UAH Million [+]
Mining Production 0.60 3.66 3.75 4.1 4.25 4.29 percent [+]
Steel Production 2015.00 1897 1889 1907 1908 1904 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Corruption Index 27.00 24.29 23.98 23.68 23.37 19.78 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 131.00 137 136 135 134 120 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 80.00 87.71 87.53 87.36 87.18 98.54 [+]
Electricity Production 16654.10 14067 12862 13454 14129 13671 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.00 4.02 4.02 4.02 4.02 4.02 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 85.00 76.64 76.64 76.64 77.86 77.13 [+]
Business Confidence 108.70 108 107 106 106 106 [+]
Cement Production 466.00 885 875 868 864 854 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 53.70 52.46 52.32 52.46 52.44 52.44 [+]
Retail Sales Mom -16.40 -2.7 1.5 -0.49 9.8 4.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales Yoy 3.10 7.8 6.2 3.42 4.5 3.2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 177480.00 159333 157902 183524 203584 218805 UAH Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 14.01 14.03 13.54 13.25 12.96 9.61 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 101528.38 101222 101314 101285 101285 101272 UAH Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.91 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 22.00 22 22 22 22 22 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.00 22 22 22 22 22 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Ukraine including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Ukraine economy. 2/22/2017