Vietnam | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Vietnam including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Vietnam economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 6.68 6.6 6.2 6.4 6.3 6.2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 2.11 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 4.30 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.4 3.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 6.50 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 5.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 186.00 -750 -120 -2150 730 -2400 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 58.30 57 57 57 58 62 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 22625.00 23000 23200 23900 23700 27300 [+]
Stock Market 741.91 715 708 686 693 578 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 5.73 5.89 5.95 6 6.06 7 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 6.68 6.6 6.2 6.4 6.3 6.2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.10 5.6 6.3 6.6 6.1 6.3 percent [+]
GDP 193.60 217 217 217 205 260 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 593170.00 1380000 2198000 3240000 637800 3880000 VND Billion [+]
Gross National Product 3977610.00 4106062 4191058 4276054 4711858 5106130 VND Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1033780.00 1489888 1489888 1489888 1489888 2284610 VND Billion [+]
GDP per capita 1684.87 1699 1722 1746 1754 1880 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 5668.00 5434 5512 5589 5509 4720 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 67473.00 211000 330000 471000 66200 477000 VND Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 29717.00 71100 122000 198200 35800 226000 VND Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 107473.00 228000 357000 511000 115400 547000 VND Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 38660.00 98000 148000 237000 47600 454000 VND Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 17539.00 39200 59100 85400 19300 95600 VND Billion [+]
GDP From Services 244194.00 501000 812000 1300000 260000 1820000 VND Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 18576.00 38300 61400 88300 62100 91500 VND Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 3873.00 8600 13100 18300 4400 20300 VND Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.11 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 53.40 54.86 55.2 55.36 53.29 58.63 Million [+]
Unemployed Persons 1.15 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 Million [+]
Minimum Wages 3750.00 3750 3750 3750 4050 4700 VND Thousand/Month [+]
Population 92.70 93.17 93.42 93.67 93.91 96.53 Million [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 76.80 77.12 77.15 77.17 77.17 77.17 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 5790475.00 5810000 5810000 5812000 5821000 5847000 VND/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 4011373.00 4025000 4028000 4028000 4033000 4059000 VND/Month [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 62 [+]
Retirement Age Women 55.00 55 55 55 55 58 [+]
Wages 5080.00 5165 5270 5400 5600 6600 VND Thousand/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 12031200.00 12700000 13000000 13100000 13100000 15500000 VND/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 5052.00 5120 5250 5260 5700 6500 VND Thousand/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 7.28 7.3 8 7.7 7.1 7.8 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 4.30 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.4 3.4 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 105.86 107 108 110 111 123 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.50 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.4 1.8 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 145.80 158 158 158 165 176 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 96.20 103 103 105 108 114 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 94.20 103 103 101 104 108 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 86.87 89.1 91.5 93 95 105 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -0.54 1.3 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.11 0.2 percent [+]
Producer Prices 101.96 106 107 109 111 119 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 6.50 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 5.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 4.50 4.1 4 4.5 4.5 5.2 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 726559.00 776476 799912 823349 963839 1134901 VND Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 1456114.00 7410000 7410000 7410000 8010000 10000000 VND Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 6019609.00 6730000 6572042 7400000 8290000 11100000 VND Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 28615.88 41436 41436 41436 44501 48901 USD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 4.70 4.5 4.5 4.5 2.41 5.2 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 186.00 -750 -120 -2150 730 -2400 USD Million [+]
Exports 17500.00 16200 16500 17300 18500 22300 USD Million [+]
Imports 17300.00 16950 16620 19450 17770 24700 USD Million [+]
Current Account 155.00 2045 3100 2350 2100 2730 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 1.30 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 2.6 1 percent [+]
External Debt 21699.00 28000 28000 28000 28000 38000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 102.16 102 102 102 101 106 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 4017.70 5064 4100 5200 3400 8500 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows 3525.00 1745 1500 -254 -580 700 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 293.00 340 294 294 311 360 BBL/D/1K [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1071.70 900 920 1080 1150 1570 Thousand [+]
Terrorism Index 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.03 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 58.30 57 57 57 58 62 percent [+]
Government Budget -5.40 -5.9 -5.9 -5.9 -6.1 -5.3 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -190940.00 -310000 -310000 -310000 -193082 -230000 VND Billion [+]
Government Spending 265545.00 275436 278940 282445 303971 312671 VND Billion [+]
Government Revenues 996870.00 1170000 1170000 1170000 1300000 1570000 VND Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 1187810.00 1480000 1480000 1480000 1590000 1800000 VND Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 4580.50 4519 4623 4440 4977 5513 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Manufacturing PMI 54.10 52.1 53.4 52.4 51.8 53 [+]
Industrial Production 7.40 9.1 8.3 8.6 7.5 6.9 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 8.90 21 15.7 10.5 9.7 7.7 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 126667.00 145200 145300 136020 154053 170133 VND Billion [+]
Car Registrations 21343.00 30520 31201 31500 37400 55461 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.31 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.7 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 60.00 65 65 65 71 70 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 82.00 78 78 73 81 60 [+]
Electricity Production 15900.00 17686 17230 17700 18200 25500 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 33.00 32 33 32 33 37 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 113.00 111 112 111 111 109 [+]
Mining Production -7.50 -6.7 1.1 1.5 0.9 3.3 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Retail Sales Yoy 11.10 6.3 4.7 8.4 7.8 7.9 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 2849540.00 2967080 3030868 3094655 3562272 4001281 VND Billion [+]
Consumer Confidence 112.00 105 103 109 111 110 [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.77 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.73 0.66 USD/Liter [+]
Retail Sales Mom 1.00 2.5 -2.9 1.7 0.5 6.9 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 26.00 26 24.39 23.45 26 24.75 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 18.00 18 17.36 18 18 18 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00 8 7.55 7.2 8 8 percent [+]