Brazil | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.80 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.3 1.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 11.90 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.1 7.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 6.29 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.4 3.6 percent [+]
Interest Rate 13.00 12.5 12.25 12 11.75 10 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 4415.00 5500 5500 5500 6200 3000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 66.23 70 70 70 70 75 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 3.21 3.35 3.38 3.41 3.44 3.94 [+]
Stock Market 64529.85 58500 57900 57300 56700 47800 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 11.01 11.68 11.79 11.91 11.21 13.74 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.80 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.3 1.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate -2.90 -1.9 -1.7 -0.2 0.5 1.9 percent [+]
GDP 1774.72 1580 1580 1580 1580 2010 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 290134.77 277000 280000 287000 285600 299000 BRL Million [+]
Gross National Product 1548975.66 1450000 1490000 1500000 1500000 1600000 BRL Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 260490.16 260000 262000 260000 266000 306000 BRL Million [+]
GDP per capita 11159.25 10050 10050 10050 10050 11730 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 14454.94 14500 14500 14500 14500 18800 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 16436.16 17386 15960 13351 12498 18500 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Construction 16801.28 16473 16404 16581 16579 18200 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 30071.50 26369 28114 29706 27873 33500 [+]
GDP From Mining 2552.90 2470 2470 2522 2425 2860 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 39836.72 39268 39754 39843 39588 40400 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Services 175640.73 169568 170890 172685 173739 209000 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Transport 8037.42 7358 7689 7723 7716 9140 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 6213.34 6207 6252 6215 6235 6240 BRL Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 11.90 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.1 7.6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 90.21 90 90 90 91 92 Million [+]
Unemployed Persons 12.13 12 12 12 12 9 Million [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.30 61.7 61.8 61.8 61.8 62.8 percent [+]
Labour Costs 136.18 142 135 130 120 139 Index Points [+]
Wages 2032.00 2012 1985 2037 2050 2500 BRL/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 880.00 988 988 988 988 1280 BRL/Month [+]
Population 204.45 206 206 206 208 212 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Wages High Skilled 4100.00 3850 3850 3850 3850 4500 BRL/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 2014.00 2028 1995 2054 2060 2560 BRL/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1200.00 1130 1130 1130 1130 1250 BRL/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 2950.00 2986 2976 2979 2978 2978 BRL/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1730.00 1738 1735 1736 1736 1736 BRL/Month [+]
Non Farm Payrolls -116.70 -40 -40 -10 -9 20 Thousand [+]
Productivity 136.18 130 132 135 138 162 Index Points [+]
Employment Change -3.60 -2 1 1.5 1.8 1 percent [+]
Employment Rate 54.10 54.2 54.2 54.3 54.4 56 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 6.29 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.4 3.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 4775.70 4890 4950 5010 5150 6400 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 6.16 6.7 6.3 6.1 6.1 5.1 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 7.97 6.42 6.58 6.74 6.89 7.09 percent [+]
Producer Prices 711.61 750 800 820 850 1050 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 120.41 120 120 119 117 145 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 111.08 120 124 126 129 145 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 8.62 12.9 12.7 12.5 12 6 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 7.73 12.8 12.7 12.4 11.9 4.8 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 4519.86 4610 4800 4850 5000 5900 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 13.00 12.5 12.25 12 11.75 10 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 270287.15 262406 259140 258629 258445 258350 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M1 346330.14 311034 311000 311092 311089 311089 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2301913.27 2324219 2341101 2346769 2356884 2372407 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M3 5147954.17 5283452 5388250 5494343 5600535 6850446 BRL Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 365016.00 361874 360400 359673 359240 549000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5827193.45 5000000 5500000 5700000 6000000 8500000 BRL Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 814239.00 899000 899000 789500 782895 727081 BRL Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 12.62 10 9.7 9 8.5 8 percent [+]
Loan Growth 0.30 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.7 1.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 2945102386.00 3011773013 3060951635 3107904731 3152284306 3531612397 BRL Thousand [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade 4415.00 5500 5500 5500 6200 3000 USD Million [+]
Exports 15941.00 18000 18500 19000 19900 25000 USD Million [+]
Imports 11525.00 12500 13000 13500 13700 22000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -877.90 -2900 -1900 -1000 1100 -500 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.32 -3.1 -3.1 -31 -3.1 -2.6 percent [+]
External Debt 335067.25 355000 352000 350000 388000 434000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 108.42 102 104 94 91 100 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -627.70 -2284 -2627 -2751 -2819 1030 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 8752.00 6418 6527 6507 6509 7000 USD Million [+]
Remittances 211.90 201 205 204 203 203 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 67.20 67.2 67.2 67.2 67.2 67.2 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 2264.00 2312 2312 2312 2312 2312 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 1.74 2.21 2.21 1.19 1.01 1.52 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 5813.00 5814 5819 5824 5828 5807 Thousand [+]
Weapons Sales 41.00 24.87 34.72 44.56 44.67 45.29 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 66.23 70 70 70 70 75 percent [+]
Government Budget -10.30 -11.5 -11.5 -11.5 -11.5 -7 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -80428.00 -69000 -36000 -77000 -110000 -110000 BRL Million [+]
Government Spending 112892.39 101150 101792 101831 101842 101845 BRL Million [+]
Government Revenues 102245.00 90373 95807 96924 99672 105782 BRL Million [+]
Military Expenditure 31953.60 32146 31957 31768 31734 31900 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 4418424.09 4604175 4743710 4879265 5011535 6370509 BRL Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 48.00 51 51.1 52 53 51 [+]
Services PMI 45.10 47.5 48 49 50 52.7 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 45.20 47 49 50.1 50.3 52.8 [+]
Composite Pmi 45.20 48 49 50 50.3 53.6 Index [+]
Industrial Production -1.10 -3 1 1.5 0.1 2.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.20 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -1.97 -2 0.2 0.6 1 1.8 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 76.60 77.2 77.3 77.5 78 79 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -513.56 -1100 1110 3600 1500 21000 BRL Million [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 169999.00 160000 160000 141636 141534 176000 [+]
Car Production 200887.00 182000 185000 184000 186000 190000 Units [+]
Car Registrations 204.00 186 183 183 183 183 Thousand [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.20 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 percent [+]
Small Business Sentiment 44.40 30.8 30.8 47.36 37 43 [+]
Mining Production 4.52 -2 -1 -0.5 -1.1 1.5 percent [+]
Steel Production 2426.00 2531 2499 2503 2508 2506 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.06 4.08 4.08 4.05 4.05 4.18 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 81.00 75 75 75 75 71 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 123.00 116 116 118 115 112 [+]
Corruption Index 38.00 38 38 41.56 40 45 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 76.00 76 76 70.2 75 72 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 100.30 102 102 102 104 103 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 2.00 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 1 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY -3.50 -1.5 -0.2 0.2 0.5 2.1 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1009563.63 945000 950000 960000 1010000 1200000 BRL Million [+]
Consumer Credit 1550116.00 1590435 1620347 1649988 1679361 2011782 BRL Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 2852641.00 3000000 3000000 2828840 3120000 3690000 BRL Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 73.60 68.64 68.64 74.64 74.71 55.43 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.15 1.17 1.15 1.1 1 0.9 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Home Ownership Rate 73.49 73.49 73.49 73.49 73.49 73.49 percent [+]
Housing Index 129.84 130 131 131 131 134 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 34.00 34 34 34 34 34 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 27.50 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 19.00 19 19 19 19 19 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 39.80 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 28.80 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Brazil including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Brazil economy. 1/18/2017