Brazil | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.90 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.3 1.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 12.60 12.7 12.9 12.9 13 7.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 4.76 4.68 4.4 4.3 4.2 3.6 percent [+]
Interest Rate 12.25 12.25 12 11.5 11 10 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 4560.00 4500 3900 4500 4800 3000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 69.49 70 70 70 70 75 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 3.11 3.12 3.14 3.11 3.1 3 [+]
Stock Market 63853.77 66000 65300 64700 63300 53300 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 10.09 10.35 10.46 10.56 10.66 12.3 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.90 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.3 1.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate -2.50 -1.9 -1.7 -0.2 0.5 1.9 percent [+]
GDP 1774.72 1580 1580 1580 1580 2010 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 285112.89 277000 280000 287000 285600 299000 BRL Million [+]
Gross National Product 1589356.15 1600000 1640000 1680000 1750000 2000000 BRL Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 254786.37 260000 262000 263000 266000 306000 BRL Million [+]
GDP per capita 11159.25 10050 10050 10050 10050 11730 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 14454.94 14500 14500 14500 14500 18800 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 12045.26 17464 16742 16838 16826 18500 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Construction 16175.80 15801 15947 16125 15816 18200 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 27844.17 26268 28051 29655 27729 33500 [+]
GDP From Mining 2540.72 2470 2470 2568 2534 2860 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 39273.35 39047 39581 39627 39204 40400 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Services 175996.33 169012 170370 172197 172753 209000 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Transport 7719.30 7357 7576 7812 7589 9140 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 6342.14 6315 6348 6299 6340 6240 BRL Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 12.60 12.7 12.9 12.9 13 7.6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 89.85 90 90 90 91 92 Million [+]
Unemployed Persons 12.92 13 13.15 13.25 13.5 9 Million [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.40 61.7 61.8 61.8 61.8 62.8 percent [+]
Labour Costs 135.22 142 135 130 120 139 Index Points [+]
Wages 2056.00 2060 2020 2037 2050 2500 BRL/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 937.00 988 988 988 988 1280 BRL/Month [+]
Population 206.08 206 206 206 206 212 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Wages High Skilled 4100.00 4200 4200 4250 4250 4600 BRL/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 2016.00 2028 1995 2054 2060 2560 BRL/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1200.00 1230 1230 1250 1250 1350 BRL/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 2187.00 2242 2255 2258 2259 2259 BRL/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1608.90 1656 1670 1675 1676 1677 BRL/Month [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 35.60 -40 -40 -10 -9 20 Thousand [+]
Productivity 135.22 130 132 135 138 162 Index Points [+]
Employment Change -3.60 -2 1 1.5 1.8 1 percent [+]
Employment Rate 53.70 54.2 54.2 54.3 54.4 56 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 4.76 4.68 4.4 4.3 4.2 3.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.33 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 4809.67 4815 4840 4870 4920 5360 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 5.31 5.41 5.3 5.1 5 5.1 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 8.30 7.21 7.53 7.85 8.17 8.19 percent [+]
Producer Prices 713.14 715 720 730 740 1050 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 128.66 132 134 134 133 125 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 109.71 110 111 112 113 145 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 4.97 5 4.9 4.8 4.7 6 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 5.35 6.8 6.7 5.9 5.7 4.8 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 4565.59 4578 4597 4603 4605 5900 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 12.25 12.25 12 11.5 11 10 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 266325.00 268430 264425 263927 263890 263860 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M1 316898.03 321078 318117 317699 317556 317538 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2315940.27 2347358 2347738 2340365 2346250 2348200 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M3 5320374.91 5431272 5573739 5712661 5850375 7472136 BRL Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 368981.00 369714 371590 372663 373187 549000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5827193.45 5900000 6100000 6300000 6500000 8500000 BRL Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 784945.00 899000 899000 737546 721570 590439 BRL Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 12.62 10 9.7 9 8.5 8 percent [+]
Loan Growth -1.00 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.7 1.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3032128436.00 3099465955 3181226903 3260278199 3338939553 4236076995 BRL Thousand [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade 4560.00 4500 3900 4500 4800 3000 USD Million [+]
Exports 15472.00 16000 16900 18000 18500 25000 USD Million [+]
Imports 10912.00 11500 13000 13500 13700 22000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -934.74 -2900 -1900 -1000 1100 -500 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -1.30 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -2.6 percent [+]
External Debt 682160.91 355000 352000 350000 388000 434000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 117.29 102 104 94 91 100 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -498.00 -2373 -2666 -2920 -2982 1030 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 5306.30 8337 7987 8001 8001 7000 USD Million [+]
Remittances 193.40 190 195 194 195 195 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 67.29 67.33 67.32 67.32 67.33 67.34 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 2264.00 2312 2312 2312 2312 2312 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 1.74 2.21 2.21 1.19 1.01 1.52 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 5813.00 5814 5819 5824 5828 5807 Thousand [+]
Weapons Sales 41.00 24.87 34.72 44.56 44.67 45.29 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 69.49 70 70 70 70 75 percent [+]
Government Budget -8.90 -8.5 -8.5 -8.5 -8.5 -7 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 299.39 -69000 -36000 -77000 -110000 -110000 BRL Million [+]
Government Spending 99811.99 111930 110326 109378 109283 109293 BRL Million [+]
Government Revenues 137391.72 112145 116499 116401 115296 114286 BRL Million [+]
Military Expenditure 31953.60 32146 31957 31768 31734 31900 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 4399046.84 4467435 4548490 4629240 4706444 5432120 BRL Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 54.00 53.5 56.4 56.3 55.6 51 [+]
Services PMI 46.40 47.5 48 49 50 52.7 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 46.90 47 49 50.1 50.3 52.8 [+]
Composite Pmi 46.60 48 49 50 50.3 53.6 Index [+]
Industrial Production 1.40 -3 1 1.5 0.1 2.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.10 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -1.20 -2 0.2 0.6 1 1.8 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 77.20 77.2 77.3 77.5 78 79 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -36262.39 -1100 1110 3600 1500 21000 BRL Million [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 112383.00 120000 122000 129121 129155 176000 [+]
Car Production 200385.00 182000 185000 184000 186000 190000 Units [+]
Car Registrations 136.00 160 163 161 161 161 Thousand [+]
Leading Economic Index -0.26 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 percent [+]
Small Business Sentiment 50.40 30.8 30.8 51.62 37 43 [+]
Steel Production 2572.00 2714 2705 2656 2653 2661 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 6.92 -2 -1 -0.5 -1.1 1.5 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.06 4.06 4.06 4.06 4.06 4.18 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 81.00 81 81 81 81 71 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 123.00 116 116 116 115 112 [+]
Corruption Index 40.00 42 38 39 40 45 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 79.00 76 76 76 75 72 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 104.40 105 104 104 104 103 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -2.10 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 1 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY -4.90 -1.5 -0.2 0.2 0.5 2.1 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1042210.39 1050000 1070000 1090000 1110000 1300000 BRL Million [+]
Consumer Credit 1565266.00 1585111 1614663 1643951 1672975 2001432 BRL Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 2841499.00 3000000 3000000 2811757 3120000 3690000 BRL Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 72.67 68.64 68.64 72.62 72.62 55.43 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.20 1.19 1.19 1.18 1.08 1.25 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Home Ownership Rate 73.49 73.49 73.49 73.49 73.49 73.49 percent [+]
Housing Index 130.09 130 130 130 130 130 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 34.00 34 34 34 34 34 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 27.50 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 19.00 19 19 19 19 19 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 39.80 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 28.80 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Brazil including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Brazil economy. 3/26/2017