Brazil | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Brazil including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Brazil economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.90 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 13.70 13.7 14 14.1 13.8 10.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 4.57 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 11.25 10.75 9.75 9 9 8.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 7145.00 3900 4500 4800 5000 3000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 69.49 70 70 70 72 75 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 3.19 3.15 3.18 3.28 3.24 3.74 [+]
Stock Market 65403.25 64300 63700 61700 62400 52000 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 10.30 10.16 10.26 10.36 10.46 12.07 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.90 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate -2.50 -1.7 -0.2 0.5 0.6 1.9 percent [+]
GDP 1803.65 1580 1580 1580 1620 2010 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 285112.89 280000 287000 285600 287900 299000 BRL Million [+]
Gross National Product 1589356.15 1640000 1680000 1750000 1800000 2000000 BRL Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 254786.37 262000 263000 266000 268000 306000 BRL Million [+]
GDP per capita 11211.89 10050 10050 10050 11200 11730 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 14532.98 14500 14500 14500 16000 18800 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 12045.26 16742 16838 16826 16827 18500 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Construction 16175.80 15947 16125 15816 15632 18200 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 27844.17 28051 29655 27729 26335 33500 [+]
GDP From Mining 2540.72 2470 2568 2534 2438 2860 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 39273.35 39581 39627 39204 39084 40400 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Services 175996.33 170370 172197 172753 166409 209000 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Transport 7719.30 7576 7812 7589 7324 9140 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 6342.14 6348 6299 6340 6316 6240 BRL Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 13.70 13.7 14 14.1 13.8 10.6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 88.95 90 90 91 91.2 92 Million [+]
Unemployed Persons 14.18 13.15 13.25 13.5 12.9 9 Million [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.60 61.8 61.8 61.8 61.9 62.8 percent [+]
Labour Costs 140.21 135 130 120 122 139 Index Points [+]
Wages 2110.00 2020 2037 2050 2058 2500 BRL/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 937.00 937 937 937 1090 1280 BRL/Month [+]
Population 206.08 207 207 207 208 212 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Wages High Skilled 4100.00 4200 4250 4250 4290 4600 BRL/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 2038.00 2030 2054 2060 2075 2560 BRL/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1200.00 1230 1250 1250 1280 1350 BRL/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 2187.00 2255 2258 2259 2259 2259 BRL/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1608.90 1670 1675 1676 1677 1677 BRL/Month [+]
Non Farm Payrolls -63.62 -40 -10 -9 -5 20 Thousand [+]
Productivity 140.21 132 135 138 140 162 Index Points [+]
Employment Change -3.60 1 1.5 1.8 -3.49 1 percent [+]
Employment Rate 53.10 54.2 54.3 54.4 54.5 56 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 4.57 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.25 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.44 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 4821.69 4840 4870 4920 4970 5360 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 5.51 5.3 5.1 5 5.2 5.1 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 8.30 7.53 7.85 8.17 8.08 8.19 percent [+]
Producer Prices 707.55 720 730 740 750 1050 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 129.60 131 131 131 131 125 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 112.18 111 112 113 115 145 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 4.04 4.9 4.8 4.7 5 6 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 4.14 6.7 5.9 5.7 5.8 4.8 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 4526.33 4473 4451 4444 4441 5900 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 11.25 10.75 9.75 9 9 8.5 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 243610.35 247016 249799 250094 250158 250201 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M1 307390.00 309092 310198 310054 310062 310077 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2317089.22 2296605 2273875 2269846 2256871 2250104 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M3 5417125.32 5550997 5684571 5817551 5950083 7384653 BRL Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 370111.00 372298 373593 374222 374593 549000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5835949.35 6100000 6300000 6500000 6700000 8500000 BRL Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 775036.00 757656 741652 726608 712462 602906 BRL Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 12.40 9.7 9 8.5 8.5 8 percent [+]
Loan Growth 0.20 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.2 1.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3032128436.00 3181226903 3260278199 3338939553 3416965149 4236076995 BRL Thousand [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 7145.00 3900 4500 4800 5000 3000 USD Million [+]
Exports 20085.00 16900 18000 18500 19100 25000 USD Million [+]
Imports 12940.00 13000 13500 13700 14100 22000 USD Million [+]
Current Account 1396.50 -1900 -1000 1100 1200 -500 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -1.30 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.9 -2.6 percent [+]
External Debt 678952.08 648061 671377 654835 657169 434000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 115.55 104 94 91 114 100 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 1818.10 -61.91 86.29 -524 -108 1030 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 7109.10 7781 7798 7799 7799 7000 USD Million [+]
Remittances 193.40 195 194 195 195 195 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 67.29 67.32 67.32 67.33 67.34 67.34 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 2730.00 2696 2695 2695 2695 2695 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 1.74 2.21 1.19 1.01 0.91 1.52 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 5813.00 5819 5824 5828 5828 5807 Thousand [+]
Weapons Sales 109.00 64.03 65.46 66.9 68.5 87.83 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 69.49 70 70 70 72 75 percent [+]
Government Budget -8.90 -8.5 -8.5 -8.5 -9 -7 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -54348.80 -49212 -47261 -47700 -48180 -110000 BRL Million [+]
Government Spending 98547.60 106856 105134 105281 105292 105288 BRL Million [+]
Government Revenues 98994.00 110165 110735 109501 110663 110661 BRL Million [+]
Military Expenditure 31953.60 32146 31957 31768 31734 31900 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 4527003.45 4624062 4735956 4841632 4944803 5909633 BRL Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 53.10 56.4 56.3 55.6 56 51 [+]
Services PMI 47.70 48 49 50 50.2 52.7 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 49.60 50 50.1 50.3 50.4 52.8 [+]
Composite Pmi 48.70 49 50 50.3 50.5 53.6 Index [+]
Industrial Production -0.80 1 1.5 0.1 0.7 2.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.10 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 1.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -1.60 0.2 0.6 1 1.1 1.8 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 77.30 77.3 77.5 78 78 79 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -36262.39 1110 3600 1500 1900 21000 BRL Million [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 158084.00 122000 140328 140494 140775 176000 [+]
Car Production 234746.00 185000 184000 186000 191000 190000 Units [+]
Car Registrations 189.00 175 171 170 170 170 Thousand [+]
Leading Economic Index 1.31 0.2 0.3 0.4 -0.02 0.2 percent [+]
Small Business Sentiment 49.70 30.8 48.98 37 49.05 43 [+]
Steel Production 2850.00 2810 2749 2751 2762 2760 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 4.70 -1 -0.5 -1.1 3.54 1.5 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.06 4.06 4.06 4.06 4.13 4.18 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 81.00 81 81 81 79 71 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 123.00 116 116 115 115 112 [+]
Corruption Index 40.00 38 39 40 42 45 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 79.00 76 76 75 74 72 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 103.40 104 104 104 104 103 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.20 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 1 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY -3.20 -0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 2.1 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1042210.39 1070000 1090000 1110000 1130000 1300000 BRL Million [+]
Consumer Credit 1576624.00 1605609 1634332 1662794 1690997 1984822 BRL Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 2844865.00 2832677 2823438 3120000 2806949 3690000 BRL Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 72.72 72.63 72.58 72.56 72.55 55.43 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.18 1.18 1.15 1.09 1.08 1.08 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Home Ownership Rate 73.49 73.49 73.49 73.49 73.49 73.49 percent [+]
Housing Index 130.22 130 130 130 130 129 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 34.00 34 34 34 34 34 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 27.50 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 39.80 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 28.80 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]