Brazil | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.80 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 1.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 11.80 12 11.8 11.8 11.7 7.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 7.87 7.5 7.3 7.3 7.2 3.2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 13.75 13.75 13.5 13.5 13.25 10 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 4757.00 5700 5500 5500 5500 3000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 66.23 68 70 70 70 75 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Currency 3.46 3.45 3.49 3.52 3.56 4.1 [+]
Stock Market 60287.90 59500 58900 58300 57700 48100 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 12.35 12.04 12.16 12.28 12.4 14.3 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.80 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 1.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate -2.90 -2.1 -1.9 -1.7 -0.2 2.1 percent [+]
GDP 1774.72 1750 1700 1700 1700 2230 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 290134.77 284200 277000 280000 287000 299000 BRL Million [+]
Gross National Product 1506742.22 1480000 1450000 1490000 1500000 1600000 BRL Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 260490.16 265000 270000 272000 270000 306000 BRL Million [+]
GDP per capita 11159.25 10550 10050 10050 10050 11730 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 14454.94 14400 14500 14500 14500 18800 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 19178.46 13146 18087 15077 14148 18500 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Construction 16625.91 17303 16754 16684 17104 18200 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 28543.73 28459 26564 28249 30047 33500 [+]
GDP From Mining 2374.28 2470 2470 2470 2428 2860 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 39642.80 38715 38487 39343 39396 40400 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Services 172179.63 172987 166161 167672 169053 209000 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Transport 7884.02 7767 7126 7488 7460 9140 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 6267.06 6276 6239 6273 6254 6240 BRL Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 11.80 12 11.8 11.8 11.7 7.2 percent [+]
Employed Persons 89.88 90 90 90 90 92 Million [+]
Unemployed Persons 12.04 12 12 12 12 9 Million [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.20 61.7 61.7 61.8 61.8 62.8 percent [+]
Labour Costs 139.55 136 137 137 137 119 Index Points [+]
Wages 2025.00 2005 2012 1985 2037 2500 BRL/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 880.00 880 988 988 988 1280 BRL/Month [+]
Population 204.45 206 206 206 207 212 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Wages High Skilled 4100.00 3850 3850 3850 3850 4500 BRL/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 2038.00 2045 2028 1995 2054 2560 BRL/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1200.00 1130 1130 1130 1130 1250 BRL/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 2950.00 2986 2976 2979 2978 2978 BRL/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1730.00 1738 1735 1736 1736 1736 BRL/Month [+]
Non Farm Payrolls -74.75 -50 -40 -40 -10 20 Thousand [+]
Productivity 139.55 128 130 132 135 162 Index Points [+]
Employment Change -3.60 -4 -2 1 1.5 1 percent [+]
Employment Rate 54.00 54.2 54.2 54.2 54.3 56 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Inflation Rate 7.87 7.5 7.3 7.3 7.2 3.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.26 0.23 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 4752.86 4800 4890 4950 5010 6400 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 6.85 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.1 5.1 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 7.97 6.89 6.96 7.03 7.1 7.09 percent [+]
Producer Prices 703.94 720 750 800 820 1050 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 119.87 119 120 120 119 145 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 110.80 118 120 124 126 145 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 12.41 13 12.9 12.7 12.5 6 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 8.43 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.4 4.8 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 4457.76 4590 4610 4800 4850 5900 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Interest Rate 13.75 13.75 13.5 13.5 13.25 10 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 247845.55 251405 255627 259743 263786 316818 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M1 306850.56 309133 311816 314489 317157 352438 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2294049.97 2313942 2356091 2401881 2450059 3198278 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M3 5148735.91 5236904 5392267 5552193 5716825 8356381 BRL Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 367528.00 366738 365656 364861 364563 549000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5822292.85 5500000 5000000 5500000 5700000 8500000 BRL Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 814898.00 899000 899000 899000 781658 707878 BRL Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 12.62 10 10 9.7 9 8 percent [+]
Loan Growth -0.50 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 1.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 2905575626.00 2942279130 2989045982 3029808477 3068284073 3384106840 BRL Thousand [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Balance of Trade 4757.00 5700 5500 5500 5500 3000 USD Million [+]
Exports 16220.00 17800 18000 18500 19000 25000 USD Million [+]
Imports 11463.00 12100 12500 13000 13500 22000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -3339.00 -2600 -2900 -1900 -1000 -500 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.32 -3 -3.1 -3.1 -31 -2.6 percent [+]
External Debt 335067.25 350000 355000 352000 350000 434000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 108.21 101 102 104 94 100 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -3182.10 -2615 -2943 -3101 -3176 1030 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 8400.00 5461 5836 5744 5749 7000 USD Million [+]
Remittances 169.20 181 188 188 188 187 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 67.20 67.2 67.2 67.2 67.2 67.2 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 2264.00 2312 2312 2312 2312 2312 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 1.74 2.21 2.21 2.21 0.71 1.52 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 5813.00 5828 5828 5828 5828 5807 Thousand [+]
Weapons Sales 41.00 24.87 34.72 44.56 44.67 45.29 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 66.23 68 70 70 70 75 percent [+]
Government Budget -10.30 -11 -11.5 -11.5 -11.5 -7 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 3384.00 -120000 -69000 -36000 -77000 -110000 BRL Million [+]
Government Spending 91186.15 99307 98651 98322 98349 98349 BRL Million [+]
Government Revenues 148699.00 97515 94582 104081 103782 111303 BRL Million [+]
Military Expenditure 31953.60 32146 31957 31768 31734 31900 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 4329703.13 4467408 4609188 4747162 4882010 6380021 BRL Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Business Confidence 51.70 54.1 55.1 55.7 56 51 [+]
Services PMI 44.40 46 47.5 48 49 52.7 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 46.20 46.4 47 49 50.1 52.8 [+]
Composite Pmi 45.30 46.5 48 49 50 53.6 Index [+]
Industrial Production -7.30 -5.9 -3 1 1.5 2.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -1.10 -0.5 -0.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -4.12 -4.2 -2 0.2 0.6 1.8 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 76.90 76.6 77.2 77.3 77.5 79 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -513.56 -1140 -1100 1110 3600 21000 BRL Million [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 132231.00 160000 160000 160000 136362 176000 [+]
Car Production 174150.00 175000 182000 185000 184000 190000 Units [+]
Car Registrations 159.00 167 169 169 169 169 Thousand [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.15 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 percent [+]
Small Business Sentiment 48.70 30.8 30.8 30.8 47.36 43 [+]
Mining Production -9.12 -3.9 -2 -1 -0.5 1.5 percent [+]
Steel Production 2720.00 2679 2684 2669 2669 2671 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.06 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.05 4.18 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 81.00 75 75 75 75 71 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 123.00 116 116 116 118 112 [+]
Corruption Index 38.00 38 38 38 41.19 45 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 76.00 76 76 76 70.72 72 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 103.20 103 104 103 102 103 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -1.00 -1.5 -0.1 0.2 0.3 1 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY -5.90 -2.5 -1.5 -0.2 0.2 2.1 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1009563.63 950000 945000 950000 960000 1200000 BRL Million [+]
Consumer Credit 1538959.00 1559165 1589253 1619075 1648626 2009255 BRL Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 2843632.00 3000000 3000000 3000000 2784718 3690000 BRL Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 73.67 68.64 68.64 68.64 75.2 55.43 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.08 1.13 1.12 1.1 1 0.9 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Home Ownership Rate 73.49 73.49 73.49 73.49 73.49 73.49 percent [+]
Housing Index 129.84 130 131 131 131 134 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 34.00 34 34 34 34 34 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 27.50 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 19.00 19 19 19 19 19 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 39.80 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 28.80 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Brazil including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Brazil economy. 12/5/2016