Bulgaria | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 7.90 9.5 8.1 7.4 9.4 8.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.10 0.4 0.8 1 1.2 1.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 1 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -241.80 -234 -226 -215 -214 -217 BGN Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 29.10 29.89 30.4 30.9 31.38 36.46 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 1.84 1.92 1.94 1.96 1.97 2.26 [+]
Stock Market 606.22 574 568 562 556 468 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.08 1.99 2.01 2.03 1.88 2.34 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.40 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.2 percent [+]
GDP 50.20 54.69 56.84 50.89 58.14 70.51 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 22807.00 16662 20345 22241 22708 24359 BGN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 4727.00 2508 4992 5429 5288 5617 BGN Million [+]
GDP per capita 7612.02 7501 7559 7616 7674 8752 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 17060.12 16951 17081 17212 17342 19772 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 1595.36 -19.06 393 372 351 165 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Construction 1192.45 714 904 1065 922 917 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 5140.33 4194 4598 4426 4275 4330 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 2597.84 2461 2450 2407 2841 2652 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Services 4968.44 3804 3804 3804 3804 3804 BGN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 7.90 9.5 8.1 7.4 9.4 8.4 percent [+]
Employed Persons 3052.70 2936 2985 3014 2968 2922 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 257.98 261 262 262 262 262 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 4.90 4.35 4.23 4.02 3.98 3.44 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 22.00 12.91 12.48 12.03 11.84 10.99 percent [+]
Labour Costs 126.97 144 130 119 123 128 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 22259.00 22364 22540 20805 20188 21424 [+]
Wages 954.00 955 954 954 954 954 BGN/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 214.75 210 210 215 230 230 EUR/Month [+]
Population 7.15 7.14 7.12 7.11 7.1 6.91 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 61.30 61.3 61.3 61.3 61.3 61.3 [+]
Retirement Age Men 64.30 64.3 64.3 64.3 64.3 64.3 [+]
Productivity 124.60 110 110 110 110 110 Index Points [+]
Part Time Employment 61.80 59.9 60.78 61.26 60.39 60.22 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 53.60 52.44 53.06 53.13 52.59 52.42 percent [+]
Wages High Skilled 1140.00 1116 1114 1112 1111 1110 BGN/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 849.00 872 886 900 913 1063 BGN/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 631.00 607 606 606 606 606 BGN/Month [+]
Full Time Employment 2910.30 2879 2926 3002 2965 2979 Thousand [+]
Living Wage Family 1630.00 1710 1703 1704 1704 1704 BGN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 815.00 838 837 837 837 837 BGN/Month [+]
Employment Change -0.70 -0.09 -0.27 0.11 -0.11 -0.05 percent [+]
Employment Rate 49.90 48.18 48.99 49.54 48.77 48.42 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 0.10 0.4 0.8 1 1.2 1.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.60 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 99.10 97.56 97.19 96.93 96.75 96.34 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 6538.33 6498 6497 6496 6496 6493 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 98.95 97.64 97.21 96.99 96.59 92.01 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate -1.40 -0.1 0.15 0.49 0.32 0.4 percent [+]
Producer Prices 106.60 107 107 107 107 107 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 95.80 96.49 96.53 96.59 96.42 96.5 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 93.20 94.3 94.27 94.32 94.28 94.29 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 0.00 -0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.9 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 7370.60 7229 7229 7229 7229 7229 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.30 10.8 17.12 20.78 22.69 24.49 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 1 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.08 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 12339.60 12479 12517 12537 12545 12552 BGN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 39951.60 41304 42301 43284 44252 54840 BGN Million [+]
Money Supply M2 78550.10 80357 81708 83019 84291 97054 BGN Million [+]
Money Supply M3 78640.80 80452 81808 83124 84401 97198 BGN Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 46741.51 47428 48088 48737 49382 57006 BGN Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.61 1.88 1.63 1.38 1.13 1.78 percent [+]
Loans To Private Sector 30994123.00 31248739 31411977 31551797 31671702 32279533 BGN Thousand [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 8238.32 8236 8215 8235 8215 8215 BGN Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -241.80 -234 -226 -215 -214 -217 BGN Million [+]
Exports 4230.30 4107 4104 4111 4106 4108 BGN Million [+]
Imports 4472.10 4416 4375 4382 4381 4382 BGN Million [+]
Current Account 116.00 -10.04 -23.94 -24.46 -22.13 -5.27 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 1.20 2 2 -1.02 -0.9 -5.06 percent [+]
External Debt 34298.60 34127 34105 34084 34076 34065 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows 355.30 314 296 304 301 302 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 209.00 210 210 209 209 209 EUR Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 524125.00 0 0 0 870321 880356 [+]
Gold Reserves 40.29 40.32 40.34 40.36 40.38 40.55 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 1.63 1.63 1.25 0.87 0.48 0.51 [+]
Weapons Sales 8.00 18.21 16.69 15.18 15.03 13.28 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -25.20 47.39 50.94 50.39 50.46 50.46 EUR Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 29.10 29.89 30.4 30.9 31.38 36.46 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.10 -2 -2 -2.69 -2.1 -0.8 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 3465076.00 3006155 2988647 3030990 3036567 3030620 BGN THO [+]
Government Spending to GDP 40.20 38.66 38 37.35 36.69 38.66 percent [+]
Government Debt 13204.10 13571 13817 14053 14279 16395 EUR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 797.10 815 767 720 699 414 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 1743.69 1636 1635 1636 1636 1636 BGN Million [+]
Asylum Applications 1730.00 1894 1910 2029 2057 2039 persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 17.20 18.36 17.57 17.28 17.46 17.46 [+]
Industrial Production 4.30 1.7 1.8 2.53 1.7 1.6 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 1.60 0.3 0.4 0.22 0.5 0.4 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.70 4.16 3 3.2 3.4 3.26 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 73.90 73.79 73.89 73.92 73.91 73.9 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 177.23 336 329 321 329 328 BGN Million [+]
Steel Production 40.00 40.75 40.87 40.89 40.88 40.88 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 8.80 1.61 0.54 -0.06 -0.36 -0.65 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.44 4.33 4.33 4.31 4.3 4.26 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 50.00 54 54 54 57 71 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 39.00 42.64 42.84 43.03 43.23 45.76 [+]
Electricity Production 3853.00 3867 3845 3852 3851 3851 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 41.00 41 40 39 38 35 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 69.00 65.23 62.54 59.84 57.15 24.97 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -27.90 -27.8 -28.29 -28.48 -28.33 -28.32 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.90 0.1 0.5 0.25 0.6 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 6.10 4.7 4.2 2.56 3.4 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 18606.64 18921 19136 19334 19517 20880 Million BGL [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.07 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.07 1.06 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Income 41.96 38.77 40.66 42.54 44.43 51.09 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 15696.52 13559 15027 14144 16312 14409 BGN Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Construction Output -3.50 -0.9 -0.1 0.3 0.5 1.5 percent [+]
Housing Index 102.01 105 106 106 106 106 Index Points [+]
Housing Starts 830.00 632 845 843 674 703 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 82.30 83.11 82.55 82 81.44 80.15 percent [+]
Building Permits 1183.00 1056 1233 1196 1123 1155 Units [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 31.00 31 31 31 31 31 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 18.10 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.90 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Bulgaria including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Bulgaria economy. 1/23/2017