Bulgaria | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 7.70 9.8 9.5 8.1 7.4 8.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate -0.60 0.2 0.4 0.8 1 1.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 1 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 89.40 -109 -96.47 -119 -96.26 -103 BGN Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 29.30 30.99 31.73 32.45 33.15 41.05 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Currency 1.84 1.85 1.87 1.88 1.9 2.2 [+]
Stock Market 563.82 528 523 518 512 427 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.25 2.21 2.23 2.26 2.28 2.63 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.50 2.9 2.8 2.7 3.54 2.2 percent [+]
GDP 48.95 52.14 54.69 56.84 50.12 70.51 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 20208.81 22301 16572 20386 22297 24332 BGN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 4727.00 6108 2508 4992 5429 5617 BGN Million [+]
GDP per capita 7502.44 7675 7737 7800 7862 8753 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 16956.41 17343 17484 17625 17767 19775 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 783.31 308 -18.91 393 372 165 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Construction 875.65 926 714 904 1065 917 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 4655.46 4250 4194 4598 4426 4330 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 2471.08 2947 2461 2450 2407 2652 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Services 3952.06 3806 3804 3804 3804 3804 BGN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 7.70 9.8 9.5 8.1 7.4 8.4 percent [+]
Employed Persons 3052.70 3004 2936 2985 3014 2922 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 255.47 252 254 255 255 255 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 4.90 4.28 4.35 4.23 4.02 3.44 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 14.90 14.81 14.37 14.38 14.18 13.91 percent [+]
Labour Costs 126.97 119 144 130 119 128 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 22259.00 19006 22364 22540 20805 21424 [+]
Wages 954.00 957 955 954 954 954 BGN/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 214.75 210 210 210 215 230 EUR/Month [+]
Population 7.15 7.1 7.08 7.07 7.06 6.91 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 61.30 61.3 61.3 61.3 61.3 61.3 [+]
Retirement Age Men 64.30 64.3 64.3 64.3 64.3 64.3 [+]
Productivity 108.60 110 110 110 110 110 Index Points [+]
Part Time Employment 61.80 60.91 59.9 60.78 61.26 60.22 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 53.60 52.96 52.44 53.06 53.13 52.42 percent [+]
Wages High Skilled 1140.00 1120 1116 1114 1112 1110 BGN/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 631.00 607 606 606 606 606 BGN/Month [+]
Full Time Employment 2910.30 2954 2879 2926 3002 2979 Thousand [+]
Living Wage Family 1630.00 1710 1703 1704 1704 1704 BGN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 815.00 838 837 837 837 837 BGN/Month [+]
Employment Change 0.50 0.33 0.3 0.22 0.29 0.27 percent [+]
Employment Rate 49.90 49.11 48.18 48.99 49.54 48.42 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Inflation Rate -0.60 0.2 0.4 0.8 1 1.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 98.46 98.88 99.16 99.37 99.51 99.84 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 6503.33 6508 6508 6508 6508 6508 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 98.46 99.41 99.14 98.64 98.67 97.89 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate -1.30 -1.52 -1.76 -1.72 -1.78 -1.85 percent [+]
Producer Prices 106.10 106 107 107 107 107 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 96.80 96.23 96.49 96.53 96.59 96.5 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 94.30 94.27 94.3 94.27 94.32 94.29 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change -0.70 -1 -0.2 0.2 0.5 1.9 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 7250.17 7234 7232 7232 7232 7232 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -0.30 4.94 13.11 18.6 21.67 24.7 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 1 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.07 -0.06 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 12226.60 12443 12697 12952 13209 16794 BGN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 39525.30 40650 42050 43496 44988 69457 BGN Million [+]
Money Supply M2 77742.10 78993 80407 81499 82480 82514 BGN Million [+]
Money Supply M3 77815.80 78791 80047 81328 82633 101885 BGN Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 45422.41 45719 46205 46754 47307 54435 BGN Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.61 1.13 1.22 1.31 1.39 1.78 percent [+]
Loans To Private Sector 30832397.00 30899168 31044667 31163799 31265991 31802137 BGN Thousand [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 8386.94 8376 8385 8365 8384 8365 BGN Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Balance of Trade 89.40 -109 -96.47 -119 -96.26 -103 BGN Million [+]
Exports 4045.80 4041 4051 4051 4055 4053 BGN Million [+]
Imports 3956.40 4040 4020 4032 4025 4027 BGN Million [+]
Current Account 366.70 -72.71 -145 -145 -129 -18.67 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 1.20 2 2 2 -2.27 -5.06 percent [+]
External Debt 34694.80 34378 34207 34061 33933 33190 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows -312.30 382 378 366 371 369 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 209.00 208 210 210 209 209 EUR Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 678576.00 477000 845000 925000 851000 857000 [+]
Gold Reserves 40.29 40.3 40.32 40.34 40.36 40.55 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 1.63 0.48 0.32 0.16 0 0.51 [+]
Weapons Sales 8.00 18.21 16.69 15.18 15.03 13.28 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -3.70 103 96.64 97.99 97.74 97.78 EUR Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 29.30 30.99 31.73 32.45 33.15 41.05 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.10 -2 -2 -2 -1.44 -0.8 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 3362230.00 2706172 2549162 2627262 2656774 2644107 BGN THO [+]
Government Spending to GDP 40.20 36.69 36.37 36.05 35.73 38.66 percent [+]
Government Debt 13370.50 14545 14983 15410 15827 20424 EUR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 797.10 815 767 720 699 414 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 1620.03 1634 1636 1635 1636 1636 BGN Million [+]
Asylum Applications 2065.00 1722 1631 1737 1764 1733 persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Business Confidence 14.30 13.84 15.9 16.42 15.98 15.99 [+]
Industrial Production 3.30 1.9 1.7 1.8 2.22 1.6 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.20 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.22 0.4 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 4.70 3.75 4.56 4.9 4.78 4.7 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 73.90 73.37 73.79 73.89 73.92 73.9 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 381.57 296 336 329 321 328 BGN Million [+]
Steel Production 40.00 41.59 41.64 41.64 41.64 41.64 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -1.90 -0.87 -0.59 -0.58 -0.61 -0.65 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.44 4.33 4.33 4.31 4.3 4.26 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 50.00 54 54 54 57 71 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 39.00 42.45 42.84 43.03 43.23 45.76 [+]
Electricity Production 3534.00 3822 3879 3850 3857 3856 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 41.00 41 40 39 38 35 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 69.00 57.15 56.06 54.98 53.9 24.97 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -27.90 -28.5 -27.8 -28.29 -28.48 -28.32 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.20 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.21 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.00 5.1 4.7 4.2 1.78 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 18491.44 18626 18816 18990 19152 20407 Million BGL [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.12 1.1 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Income 41.96 44.43 44.92 45.41 45.91 51.09 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 14847.34 16754 13559 15027 14144 14409 BGN Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Construction Output -10.00 -2.8 -0.9 -0.1 -10.17 1.5 percent [+]
Housing Index 100.41 104 105 106 106 106 Index Points [+]
Housing Starts 830.00 654 632 845 843 703 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 82.30 81.44 81.3 81.16 81.02 80.15 percent [+]
Building Permits 1183.00 1099 1056 1233 1196 1155 Units [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 31.00 31 31 31 31 31 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 18.10 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.90 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Bulgaria including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Bulgaria economy. 12/3/2016