Bulgaria | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 8.00 9.5 8.1 7.4 9.4 8.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.40 1.5 1.8 2 1.9 2.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 1 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -408.10 -263 -306 -262 -286 -279 BGN Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 29.40 29.94 30.46 30.97 31.46 36.61 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 1.84 1.92 1.94 1.96 1.97 2.26 [+]
Stock Market 607.38 574 568 562 556 468 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.82 1.99 2.01 2.03 1.88 2.34 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.40 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.2 percent [+]
GDP 50.20 54.69 56.84 50.89 58.14 70.51 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 22807.00 16662 20345 22241 22708 24359 BGN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 4727.00 2508 4992 5429 5288 5617 BGN Million [+]
GDP per capita 7612.02 7501 7559 7616 7674 8752 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 17060.12 16951 17081 17212 17342 19772 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 1595.36 -19.06 393 372 351 165 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Construction 1192.45 714 904 1065 922 917 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 5140.33 4194 4598 4426 4275 4330 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 2597.84 2461 2450 2407 2841 2652 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Services 4968.44 3804 3804 3804 3804 3804 BGN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 8.00 9.5 8.1 7.4 9.4 8.4 percent [+]
Employed Persons 3005.90 2938 2986 3016 2971 2926 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 261.02 261 262 262 262 262 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 4.30 4.35 4.23 4.02 3.98 3.44 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 22.40 12.91 12.48 12.03 11.84 10.99 percent [+]
Labour Costs 126.97 144 130 119 123 128 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 22259.00 22364 22540 20805 20188 21424 [+]
Wages 1012.00 1014 1012 1011 1011 1011 BGN/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 235.20 210 210 232 230 230 EUR/Month [+]
Population 7.15 7.14 7.12 7.11 7.1 6.91 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 61.00 60.44 60.44 60.44 60.44 59.59 [+]
Retirement Age Men 64.00 63.67 63.67 63.67 63.67 63.62 [+]
Productivity 124.60 110 110 110 110 110 Index Points [+]
Part Time Employment 53.60 56.34 55.89 52.94 53.51 52.87 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 52.70 52.2 52.9 52.97 52.24 52.03 percent [+]
Wages High Skilled 1140.00 1116 1114 1112 1111 1110 BGN/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 849.00 872 886 900 913 1063 BGN/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 631.00 607 606 606 606 606 BGN/Month [+]
Full Time Employment 2934.50 2819 2865 2896 2844 2801 Thousand [+]
Living Wage Family 1001.50 1031 1018 1024 1021 1022 BGN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 766.60 791 794 794 794 794 BGN/Month [+]
Employment Change -0.70 -0.09 -0.27 0.11 -0.11 -0.05 percent [+]
Employment Rate 49.20 48.29 49.07 49.62 48.92 48.64 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 1.40 1.5 1.8 2 1.9 2.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.30 0.32 0.25 0.23 0.22 0.22 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 99.81 101 102 102 103 104 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 6622.54 6651 6669 6684 6697 6741 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 98.95 97.64 97.21 96.99 96.59 92.01 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate -1.40 -0.1 0.15 0.49 0.32 0.4 percent [+]
Producer Prices 108.20 109 110 112 114 125 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 95.80 96.49 96.53 96.59 96.42 96.5 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 93.20 94.3 94.27 94.32 94.28 94.29 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.60 2.9 3.2 3 2.8 2.5 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 7452.65 7485 7487 7487 7487 7487 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 3.80 9.47 16.29 20.38 22.55 24.63 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 1 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.07 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 12761.60 12479 12517 12537 12545 12552 BGN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 40820.70 41304 42301 43284 44252 54840 BGN Million [+]
Money Supply M2 79489.50 80357 81708 83019 84291 97054 BGN Million [+]
Money Supply M3 79581.50 80452 81808 83124 84401 97198 BGN Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 45233.61 45402 45723 46211 46711 52709 BGN Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.61 1.88 1.63 1.38 1.13 1.78 percent [+]
Loans To Private Sector 30576509.00 31248739 31411977 31551797 31671702 32279533 BGN Thousand [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 8203.81 8191 8166 8186 8166 8166 BGN Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -408.10 -263 -306 -262 -286 -279 BGN Million [+]
Exports 3975.00 4035 4026 4038 4025 4028 BGN Million [+]
Imports 4383.10 4412 4365 4374 4373 4374 BGN Million [+]
Current Account -494.10 93.07 122 43.13 72.75 69.69 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 3.90 2 2 0.01 0.41 -4 percent [+]
External Debt 34164.80 34127 34105 34084 34076 34065 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows -149.80 222 203 207 206 206 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 209.00 210 210 209 209 209 EUR Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 531081.00 0 0 0 870321 880356 [+]
Gold Reserves 40.29 40.32 40.34 40.36 40.38 40.55 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 1.63 1.63 1.25 0.87 0.48 0.51 [+]
Weapons Sales 8.00 18.21 16.69 15.18 15.03 13.28 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -25.20 47.39 50.94 50.39 50.46 50.46 EUR Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 29.40 29.94 30.46 30.97 31.46 36.61 percent [+]
Government Budget 1.60 -2 -2 -2.69 -2.1 -0.8 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 1472549.00 3006155 2988647 3030990 3036567 3030620 BGN THO [+]
Government Spending to GDP 40.20 38.66 38 37.35 36.69 38.66 percent [+]
Government Debt 13761.90 14005 14319 14622 14915 17792 EUR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 797.10 815 767 720 699 414 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 1743.69 1636 1635 1636 1636 1636 BGN Million [+]
Asylum Applications 795.00 950 1599 1540 1372 1448 persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 20.20 20.82 18.72 18.26 18.69 18.67 [+]
Industrial Production 6.90 1.7 1.8 5.82 1.7 1.6 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 2.10 0.3 0.4 0.23 0.5 0.4 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 9.60 8.84 7.15 8.57 7.91 8.06 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 73.50 73.79 73.59 73.6 73.61 73.62 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 177.23 336 329 321 329 328 BGN Million [+]
Steel Production 40.00 40.75 40.87 40.89 40.88 40.88 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 2.50 2.02 1.15 0.47 0.05 -0.39 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.44 4.33 4.33 4.31 4.3 4.26 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 50.00 54 54 54 57 71 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 39.00 42.64 42.84 43.03 43.23 45.76 [+]
Electricity Production 4551.00 3979 3775 3876 3853 3855 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 41.00 41 40 39 38 35 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 75.00 65.23 62.54 59.84 57.15 24.97 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -25.40 -26.8 -26.31 -27.15 -26.41 -26.88 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.10 0.1 0.5 0.33 0.6 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.50 4.7 4.2 3.62 3.4 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 18512.50 18921 19136 19334 19517 20880 Million BGL [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.09 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.07 1.06 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Income 41.96 38.77 40.66 42.54 44.43 51.09 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 15696.52 13559 15027 14144 16312 14409 BGN Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Construction Output -9.70 -7.8 -5.6 -2.2 -0.2 1.5 percent [+]
Housing Index 102.01 105 106 106 106 106 Index Points [+]
Housing Starts 830.00 632 845 843 674 703 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 82.30 83.11 82.55 82 81.44 80.15 percent [+]
Building Permits 1183.00 1056 1233 1196 1123 1155 Units [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 31.00 31 31 31 31 31 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 18.10 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.90 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Bulgaria including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Bulgaria economy. 2/24/2017