Bulgaria | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Bulgaria including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Bulgaria economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 8.00 8.1 7.4 9.4 8 8.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.60 2.2 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0.25 0.25 1 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -647.20 -359 -430 -378 -427 -409 BGN Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 27.10 27.32 27.53 27.74 27.95 29.93 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 1.74 1.85 1.87 1.92 1.9 2.2 [+]
Stock Market 658.50 628 622 603 609 508 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.95 1.77 1.79 1.8 1.82 2.1 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.40 3 3.1 3 3.2 2.5 percent [+]
GDP 50.20 56.84 52.05 58.14 52.05 70.51 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 23310.50 21129 23386 23701 18685 23881 BGN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 5108.64 4615 4431 4937 3054 4740 BGN Million [+]
GDP per capita 7612.02 7624 7727 7831 7869 8310 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 17000.14 16975 17207 17438 17524 18526 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 738.30 767 1533 745 484 766 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Construction 672.35 875 1058 679 647 699 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 4626.94 4940 5050 4662 4572 4727 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 3498.03 2709 2742 3498 2816 3417 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Services 5524.45 4647 4640 4641 4641 4641 BGN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 8.00 8.1 7.4 9.4 8 8.4 percent [+]
Employed Persons 3036.70 3094 3102 3059 3078 3126 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 261.77 250 248 249 249 249 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 3.90 3.77 3.42 3.29 3.24 2.23 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 17.50 17.22 17.1 17.43 17.27 17.49 percent [+]
Labour Costs 113.96 124 111 113 133 114 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 18466.00 19994 18953 19241 21022 19888 [+]
Wages 1036.00 1032 1027 1026 1026 1026 BGN/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 235.20 210 236 230 244 230 EUR/Month [+]
Population 7.15 7.12 7.11 7.1 7.1 6.91 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 61.00 60.44 60.44 60.44 59.92 59.59 [+]
Retirement Age Men 64.00 63.67 63.67 63.67 63.5 63.62 [+]
Part Time Employment 59.00 57.32 54.88 56.79 57.1 55.88 Thousand [+]
Productivity 133.60 118 118 118 118 118 Index Points [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 53.70 54.2 53.83 53.08 53.75 53.47 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 1001.50 1018 1019 1019 1019 1019 BGN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 766.60 783 791 787 789 788 BGN/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 1140.00 1114 1112 1111 1111 1110 BGN/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 870.00 900 915 931 945 1101 BGN/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 631.00 606 606 606 606 606 BGN/Month [+]
Full Time Employment 2882.90 2869 2901 2852 2805 2814 Thousand [+]
Employment Change 0.50 -0.09 0.34 -0.03 0.1 0.1 percent [+]
Employment Rate 50.00 51.06 51.13 50.49 51 52.04 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.60 2.2 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.70 0.25 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.21 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 99.74 101 102 103 104 105 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 6634.11 6656 6670 6682 6692 6726 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 98.04 97.95 97.63 97.12 96.81 93.73 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate -0.80 0.04 -0.04 -0.16 0.13 0.03 percent [+]
Producer Prices 109.40 110 112 114 116 129 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 98.70 99.49 99.1 99.6 99.64 99.57 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 96.30 96.78 96.4 96.68 96.66 96.65 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 4.10 6.7 6.5 4.9 3.6 2.5 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 14395.30 14505 14613 14708 14801 15799 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 7509.14 7536 7541 7540 7540 7540 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 5.10 9.69 15.91 19.88 22.04 24.15 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0.25 0.25 1 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 12485.80 12539 12546 12554 12551 12553 BGN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 41068.50 42027 42973 43905 44823 54077 BGN Million [+]
Money Supply M2 79371.20 80651 81697 82716 83709 92857 BGN Million [+]
Money Supply M3 79457.10 80735 81783 82802 83795 92932 BGN Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 46223.36 46664 47085 47603 48131 53919 BGN Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.20 0.91 0.8 0.69 0.74 1.14 percent [+]
Loans To Private Sector 30758242.00 30806618 30859602 30905730 30945443 31143521 BGN Thousand [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 8319.75 8312 8315 8312 8314 8312 BGN Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -647.20 -359 -430 -378 -427 -409 BGN Million [+]
Exports 4371.80 4262 4253 4239 4250 4243 BGN Million [+]
Imports 5019.00 4508 4677 4629 4647 4643 BGN Million [+]
Current Account -253.60 29.37 77.9 46.47 54.73 55.11 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 3.90 2 0.01 0.41 -0.08 -4 percent [+]
External Debt 34231.50 34087 34001 33972 33949 33927 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows 190.30 272 262 261 261 261 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 70.30 72.93 70.67 70.25 71.05 70.98 EUR Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 474536.00 0 0 674179 676447 681544 [+]
Gold Reserves 40.30 40.34 40.35 40.37 40.39 40.54 Tonnes [+]
Weapons Sales 4.00 21.84 18.63 15.41 16.27 23.7 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 1.63 1.25 0.87 0.48 0.32 0.51 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -206.20 -55.33 -51.69 -52.47 -52.49 -52.51 EUR Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 27.10 27.32 27.53 27.74 27.95 29.93 percent [+]
Government Budget 0.00 -2 -0.17 -2.1 -0.28 -0.8 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 155.15 870942 1362779 1311491 1221651 1227852 BGN THO [+]
Government Spending to GDP 35.50 35.74 35.2 34.66 35.23 39.06 percent [+]
Government Debt 13448.60 13694 13908 14111 14306 15970 EUR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 797.10 815 767 720 699 414 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 2301.37 1949 1882 1906 1897 1900 BGN Million [+]
Asylum Applications 355.00 1499 1456 1107 1183 1241 persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 27.20 27.52 27.83 27.83 27.87 27.87 [+]
Industrial Production 5.90 1.8 4.96 1.7 4.97 1.6 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.80 0.4 0.12 0.5 0.24 0.4 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 9.90 6.73 8.25 7.65 7.72 7.77 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 75.60 73.6 75.67 75.77 75.62 75.55 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 368.97 336 307 333 327 327 BGN Million [+]
Steel Production 59.00 54.66 53.66 53.82 54 53.95 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 3.70 1.84 1.09 0.54 0.14 -0.39 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.44 4.36 4.36 4.36 4.32 4.28 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 50.00 47 47 47 52 51 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 39.00 39 40 40 45 59 [+]
Electricity Production 4165.00 3863 3852 3867 3863 3863 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 41.00 41 43 44 43 42 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 75.00 72 73 74 75 75 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -27.00 -26.33 -27.71 -26.79 -27.39 -27.28 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.80 0.5 0.44 0.6 0.44 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 5.90 4.2 5.88 3.4 5.91 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 18785.87 18986 19171 19342 19501 20623 Million BGL [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.14 1.15 1.16 1.15 1.15 1.15 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Income 36.85 37.33 36.54 35.75 35.51 32.69 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 18630.50 18624 17107 18618 17114 18580 BGN Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Construction Output 5.60 -5.6 -2.2 -0.2 1.96 1.5 percent [+]
Housing Index 104.46 107 108 108 108 108 Index Points [+]
Housing Starts 720.00 833 814 734 601 758 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 82.30 82.55 82 81.44 81.3 80.15 percent [+]
Building Permits 1122.00 1249 1211 1156 1123 1196 Units [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 10.00 10.19 10.19 10.19 10.14 10.39 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 10.00 8.9 8.96 9.02 8.84 7.23 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 31.00 30.97 31.11 31.26 31.21 31.12 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 18.10 18.06 18.15 18.23 18.22 18.19 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.90 12.9 12.89 12.89 12.89 12.89 percent [+]