Bulgaria | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 8.20 9.5 8.1 7.4 9.4 8.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.70 1.5 1.8 2 1.9 2.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 1 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -271.70 -253 -295 -254 -276 -270 BGN Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 27.80 28.27 28.59 28.89 29.16 32.03 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 1.80 1.88 1.9 1.92 1.95 2.23 [+]
Stock Market 633.63 607 601 595 582 490 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.90 1.92 1.94 1.96 1.98 2.28 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.40 3.2 3 3.1 3 2.5 percent [+]
GDP 50.20 54.69 56.84 50.89 58.14 70.51 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 23310.50 18028 21129 23386 23701 23881 BGN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 5108.64 2969 4615 4431 4937 4740 BGN Million [+]
GDP per capita 7612.02 7501 7559 7616 7674 8752 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 17060.12 16951 17081 17212 17342 19772 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 738.30 451 767 1533 745 766 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Construction 672.35 641 875 1058 679 699 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 4626.94 4470 4940 5050 4662 4727 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 3498.03 2727 2709 2742 3498 3417 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Services 5524.45 4564 4647 4640 4641 4641 BGN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 8.20 9.5 8.1 7.4 9.4 8.4 percent [+]
Employed Persons 3005.90 2938 2986 3016 2971 2926 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 269.75 278 283 282 281 281 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 4.30 4.35 4.23 4.02 3.98 3.44 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 23.00 24.16 24.83 25.4 25.79 26.42 percent [+]
Labour Costs 113.96 136 124 111 113 114 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 17952.00 21370 19824 18795 18862 19553 [+]
Wages 1012.00 1014 1012 1011 1011 1011 BGN/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 235.20 210 210 232 230 230 EUR/Month [+]
Population 7.15 7.14 7.12 7.11 7.1 6.91 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 61.00 60.44 60.44 60.44 60.44 59.59 [+]
Retirement Age Men 64.00 63.67 63.67 63.67 63.67 63.62 [+]
Productivity 133.60 119 118 118 118 118 Index Points [+]
Part Time Employment 53.60 56.34 55.89 52.94 53.51 52.87 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 52.70 52.2 52.9 52.97 52.24 52.03 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 1001.50 1023 1018 1019 1019 1019 BGN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 766.60 798 783 791 787 788 BGN/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 1140.00 1116 1114 1112 1111 1110 BGN/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 849.00 872 886 900 913 1063 BGN/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 631.00 607 606 606 606 606 BGN/Month [+]
Full Time Employment 2934.50 2819 2865 2896 2844 2801 Thousand [+]
Employment Change -0.70 -0.09 -0.27 0.11 -0.11 -0.05 percent [+]
Employment Rate 49.20 48.29 49.07 49.62 48.92 48.64 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 1.70 1.5 1.8 2 1.9 2.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 99.80 99.59 99.36 99.22 99.12 98.9 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 6622.21 6623 6637 6649 6659 6693 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 98.71 97.95 97.88 97.93 97.57 94.96 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate -1.00 -0.68 -0.82 -0.7 -0.5 -0.57 percent [+]
Producer Prices 108.90 109 110 112 114 125 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 98.70 100 99.49 99.1 99.6 99.57 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 96.30 96.98 96.78 96.4 96.68 96.65 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 4.30 2.9 3.2 3 2.8 2.5 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 7475.55 7486 7489 7489 7489 7489 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 3.70 6.09 13.34 18.47 21.4 24.35 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 1 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.08 -0.07 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 12494.90 12524 12576 12595 12606 12608 BGN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 40509.50 40768 41650 42541 43419 52980 BGN Million [+]
Money Supply M2 79147.30 79737 80958 82111 83209 94165 BGN Million [+]
Money Supply M3 79232.10 79829 81048 82204 83304 94262 BGN Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 46645.12 47279 47792 48393 49006 56275 BGN Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.61 1.88 1.63 1.38 1.13 1.78 percent [+]
Loans To Private Sector 30561061.00 30550387 30539726 30529858 30521321 30477043 BGN Thousand [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 8436.29 8458 8462 8470 8463 8464 BGN Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -271.70 -253 -295 -254 -276 -270 BGN Million [+]
Exports 3724.00 3838 3805 3800 3796 3796 BGN Million [+]
Imports 3995.70 4218 4147 4190 4178 4181 BGN Million [+]
Current Account -9.70 170 142 97.43 123 118 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 3.90 2 2 0.01 0.41 -4 percent [+]
External Debt 34727.60 35028 35284 35389 35458 35524 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows 332.50 301 286 288 288 288 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 66.10 68.73 70.57 69.08 68.28 68.87 EUR Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 435888.00 0 0 0 723058 736873 [+]
Gold Reserves 40.30 40.32 40.34 40.35 40.37 40.54 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 1.63 1.63 1.25 0.87 0.48 0.51 [+]
Weapons Sales 8.00 18.21 16.69 15.18 15.03 13.28 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -25.20 47.39 50.94 50.39 50.46 50.46 EUR Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 27.80 28.27 28.59 28.89 29.16 32.03 percent [+]
Government Budget 1.60 -2 -2 -2.69 -2.1 -0.8 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 884176.00 753589 1504512 1742179 1662017 1626298 BGN THO [+]
Government Spending to GDP 40.20 38.66 38 37.35 36.69 38.66 percent [+]
Government Debt 13549.40 13758 14010 14270 14520 16910 EUR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 797.10 815 767 720 699 414 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 2301.37 1758 1949 1882 1906 1900 BGN Million [+]
Asylum Applications 795.00 950 1599 1540 1372 1448 persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 27.60 24.9 27.88 28.24 28.27 37.32 [+]
Industrial Production -1.20 1.7 1.8 0.86 1.7 1.6 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -3.90 0.3 0.4 0.13 0.5 0.4 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -3.70 -0.4 -0.74 1.07 -0.27 0.17 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 73.50 73.79 73.59 73.6 73.61 73.62 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 368.97 318 336 307 333 327 BGN Million [+]
Steel Production 45.00 45.08 45.1 45.1 45.1 45.1 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -2.80 -0.17 -0.65 -0.55 -0.48 -0.45 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.44 4.33 4.33 4.31 4.3 4.26 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 50.00 54 54 54 57 71 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 39.00 42.64 42.84 43.03 43.23 45.76 [+]
Electricity Production 4769.00 4152 3747 3893 3870 3868 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 41.00 40 41 43 44 42 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 75.00 65.23 62.54 59.84 57.15 24.97 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -25.40 -26.8 -26.31 -27.15 -26.41 -26.88 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.50 0.1 0.5 0.34 0.6 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.00 4.7 4.2 4.03 3.4 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 18678.58 18731 18879 19016 19142 20086 Million BGL [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.11 1.13 1.16 1.15 1.14 1.15 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Income 41.96 38.77 40.66 42.54 44.43 51.09 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 18630.50 17101 18624 17107 18618 18580 BGN Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Construction Output -10.30 -7.8 -5.6 -2.2 -0.2 1.5 percent [+]
Housing Index 102.01 105 106 106 106 106 Index Points [+]
Housing Starts 720.00 592 833 814 734 758 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 82.30 83.11 82.55 82 81.44 80.15 percent [+]
Building Permits 1122.00 1073 1249 1211 1156 1196 Units [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 31.00 31 31 31 31 31 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 18.10 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.90 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Bulgaria including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Bulgaria economy. 3/29/2017