Hong Kong | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.60 -0.5 -0.7 -0.1 0.2 1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.40 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.30 2.8 2.9 3 3.4 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.75 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 4.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -33307.00 -39152 -36784 -36032 -35810 -35742 HKD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 32.00 32.26 32.12 32.21 32.29 32.7 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Currency 7.75 7.83 7.91 7.98 8.06 9.3 [+]
Stock Market 22827.00 22800 22500 22300 22100 18400 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.14 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.60 -0.5 -0.7 -0.1 0.2 1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.70 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.7 3.2 percent [+]
GDP 309.93 306 306 310 310 366 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 559887.00 597948 625483 580411 573592 695549 HKD Million [+]
Gross National Product 583639.00 622000 640000 610000 608000 704000 HKD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 127413.00 122275 139139 120093 135107 145046 HKD Million [+]
GDP per capita 36117.10 36090 36090 36100 36100 3701 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 53379.74 53300 53300 53250 53250 55560 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 308.00 318 342 328 323 267 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 24274.00 24257 25012 24527 24332 24808 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 6382.00 7146 6984 6385 6836 6930 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 95283.00 101231 100668 97548 103438 106319 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Services 507326.00 499000 497000 498000 498000 498000 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Transport 34704.00 36600 36400 35900 36100 39300 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 8089.00 10200 8240 8120 9500 8280 HKD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.40 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 3811.40 3815 3815 3818 3819 3831 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 138.80 142 142 143 143 143 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.30 61.33 61.28 61.3 61.29 61.29 percent [+]
Labour Costs 154.60 134 141 157 139 146 Index Points [+]
Productivity 155.20 157 157 158 159 167 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 70301.00 68958 67941 67683 67672 66673 [+]
Wages 15055.00 15241 15329 15366 15423 15761 HKD/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 200.00 205 206 208 209 230 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 32.50 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 37 HKD/Hour [+]
Population 7.30 7.31 7.33 7.34 7.35 7.47 Million [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 6.60 7.33 6.93 6.96 6.99 6.98 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Inflation Rate 2.30 2.8 2.9 3 3.4 3.8 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 102.70 103 103 104 104 109 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 104.80 106 106 106 106 110 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 103.80 104 104 104 104 104 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 98.20 97.74 97.33 96.96 96.64 94.67 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 97.00 96.52 96.15 95.86 95.65 94.98 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 101.30 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.80 2.28 1.77 1.44 1.19 0.58 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.39 0.15 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.17 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change -2.80 -0.88 -1.27 -1.41 -2.03 -1.85 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.75 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 4.75 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.56 0.56 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 365655.00 373367 381690 390196 398886 542614 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 2089932.00 2116703 2170902 2228966 2290196 3397109 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 11791317.80 11915437 12111194 12323825 12550150 16565967 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 11828214.00 11838207 11825623 11812975 11800380 11629716 HKD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 362900.00 365312 368831 372187 375411 409352 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 19823414.00 19947412 19919759 19891606 19863595 19486195 HKD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 7699505.00 7752804 7815356 7872963 7924897 8285955 HKD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Balance of Trade -33307.00 -39152 -36784 -36032 -35810 -35742 HKD Million [+]
Exports 304465.00 297986 292474 292708 293338 293212 HKD Million [+]
Imports 337773.00 332660 328500 328561 328683 328671 HKD Million [+]
Current Account 16160.00 30206 29000 29000 29000 26300 HKD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 3.10 3.26 4.13 4 3.88 4.3 percent [+]
Terms of Trade 101.20 101 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 10251.00 -29047 -32323 -13143 -20310 -28785 HKD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 2174107.00 2018244 2158924 2060848 2148177 2148867 [+]
Gold Reserves 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 Tonnes [+]
External Debt 9806748.00 9470000 9360000 9300000 9270000 9270000 HKD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 12844.17 12843 13141 13283 13425 15549 HKD Billion [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 32.00 32.26 32.12 32.21 32.29 32.7 percent [+]
Government Budget 1.30 1.06 0.33 0.53 0.73 0.75 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -27315.00 -31514 59920 20574 -25993 32138 HKD Million [+]
Government Spending 54684.00 56862 57143 61102 56531 62419 HKD Million [+]
Government Revenues 59827.00 57505 148192 116244 59872 128760 HKD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 87142.00 93421 88185 93313 88594 90496 HKD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Business Confidence -6.00 -14 -12 -12 -12 -6.62 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 47.20 48.5 49 48.7 49.4 51.8 [+]
Industrial Production -0.40 -2.8 -1.9 -0.8 -0.8 3.4 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 253.00 -2913 -1054 -1191 -471 -1181 HKD Million [+]
Bankruptcies 7012.00 6978 7494 7476 7204 7166 Companies [+]
Car Registrations 2716.00 2796 2823 2832 2834 2836 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.46 5.45 5.45 5.46 5.46 5.49 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 7.00 7.08 7.08 7 6.97 6.97 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 5.00 4 4 3.91 3.83 3.5 [+]
Corruption Index 75.00 73.83 73.7 73.68 73.66 75.92 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 18.00 18 18 18 18 14 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 87.00 87.97 89.11 87.48 87.67 87.8 [+]
Retail Sales YoY -9.60 -5.3 -3.1 2.6 2.6 4.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 401872.00 393393 416225 405394 427241 493736 HKD Million [+]
Personal Savings 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 67.10 67.65 67.73 67.84 67.92 68.32 percent of GDP [+]
Retail Sales Mom -5.10 0.37 1.09 0.75 0.76 0.69 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Housing Index 127.22 129 129 130 130 130 Index points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 51.00 50.6 50.62 50.53 50.45 49.17 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 16.50 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Hong Kong including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Hong Kong economy. 8/25/2016