Hong Kong | Economic Forecasts | 2013-2015 Outlook

Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Markets Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Government Bond 10Y 2.28 Apr-14 2.25 May-14 2.97 2.89 2.3 3.14 3.3 3.68 3.77 [+]
Currency 7.75 Apr-14 7.76 May-14 7.76 7.76 7.76 7.76 7.76 7.76 7.76 [+]
Stock Market 22531.61 Apr-14 22658 May-14 22472 22152 22179 22180 22192 26002 28417 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
GDP Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 Dec-13 0.25 Mar-14 0.25 0.9 0.94 0.86 0.84 2.84 2.84 [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.00 Dec-13 3.75 Mar-14 3.75 2.87 2.91 2.96 2.99 2.99 2.99 [+]
GDP per capita 32741.76 Dec-12 33414 Jun-14 32868 32881 32891 32901 34948 39360 55288 [+]
GDP per capita PPP 44770.11 Dec-12 45689 Jun-14 44942 44960 44975 44988 47787 53820 75599 [+]
GDP Constant Prices 541592.00 Nov-13 517485 Jun-14 517485 534216 538433 524973 554182 583595 691488 [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 136974.00 Nov-13 133924 Mar-14 133924 137036 139217 138224 135818 135957 135955 [+]
Gross National Product 556889.00 Nov-13 549649 Mar-14 549649 537850 555865 564572 695515 1047254 3438952 [+]
GDP 263.26 Dec-12 279 Jun-14 280 282 284 286 309 364 517 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Labour Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Population 7.22 Dec-13 7.25 Jun-14 7.23 7.24 7.25 7.26 7.3 7.41 7.46 [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.10 Mar-14 3.1 Apr-14 3 2.9 2.9 3 3.2 5.1 6 [+]
Employed Persons 3721.00 Mar-14 3718 Mar-14 3748 3753 3752 3770 4637 6997 22978 [+]
Job Vacancies 72382.00 Dec-13 78162 Mar-14 78162 80421 78408 76563 73728 78111 76093 [+]
Labour Costs 129.30 Aug-13 132 Dec-13 140 136 132 137 137 137 137 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.60 Mar-14 61.1 Mar-14 61.1 61.03 61.06 61.06 61.11 61.1 61.1 [+]
Productivity 145.50 Jun-12 146 Dec-12 147 147 147 147 182 277 912 [+]
Unemployed Persons 119.10 Mar-14 117 Mar-14 120 122 125 112 117 116 116 [+]
Wages 195.20 Nov-13 198 Mar-14 198 202 204 206 214 257 312 [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 180.90 Nov-13 185 Mar-14 185 188 188 189 189 188 188 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Prices Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Inflation Rate 3.90 Mar-14 4.57 Apr-14 4.5 4.41 4 3.98 4.06 4.09 4.1 [+]
Consumer Price Index (CPI) 118.50 Mar-14 120 Mar-14 119 120 120 122 155 241 789 [+]
Export Prices 115.00 Feb-14 114 Feb-14 115 116 116 117 117 117 115 [+]
GDP Deflator 107.30 Nov-13 107 Mar-14 107 108 108 109 111 114 114 [+]
Import Prices 115.10 Feb-14 114 Feb-14 114 115 116 116 116 115 115 [+]
Producer Prices 107.10 Nov-13 104 Mar-14 104 102 101 101 128 194 637 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Money Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Interest Rate 0.50 Mar-14 0.5 Mar-14 0.5 0.5 1 1 1.5 0.5 0.5 [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 316800.00 Mar-14 317643 Apr-14 311052 312953 314677 320326 317922 309941 319047 [+]
Interbank Rate 0.38 Apr-14 0.25 May-14 0.01 0.76 0.75 0.75 1 1.33 2.59 [+]
Loans to Private Sector 6908393.18 Feb-14 6981195 Mar-14 6829826 7144351 7391336 7552014 8020941 7754580 7784991 [+]
Money Supply M0 322837.60 Feb-14 329265 Mar-14 326408 330598 338709 347050 464513 978948 5038885 [+]
Money Supply M1 1658246.64 Feb-14 1613071 Mar-14 1564853 1602251 1646978 1671639 2110428 3151837 10349763 [+]
Money Supply M2 10270051.08 Feb-14 10340379 Mar-14 10235667 10506605 10821762 11080450 14128401 18400826 67810326 [+]
Money Supply M3 10301634.36 Feb-14 10371637 Mar-14 10267314 10539588 10856181 11103341 13987173 20083213 56048174 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Trade Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Current Account 18952.00 Nov-13 24496 Mar-14 24496 12740 12109 28067 26998 24584 24572 [+]
Balance of Trade -53673.00 Feb-14 -52096 Mar-14 -52099 -47803 -44309 -50422 -60740 -92072 -302277 [+]
Exports 212914.00 Feb-14 284220 Mar-14 287769 294713 305849 294757 362397 547850 1798988 [+]
Imports 266587.00 Feb-14 328494 Mar-14 339868 342516 350158 345178 423136 639922 2101265 [+]
Current Account to GDP 2.10 Dec-13 1.45 Jun-14 2.3 2.45 2.57 2.17 2.85 0.18 0.05 [+]
Capital Flows -45288.00 Nov-13 -18005 Mar-14 -18005 -4552 -16213 -19993 -19388 -6656 -2138 [+]
Gold Reserves 2.08 Dec-13 [+]
Terms of Trade 99.90 Feb-14 100 Feb-14 101 101 100 100 100 100 100 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1751984.00 Mar-14 1777297 Mar-14 1777297 1723944 1678805 1905817 1889028 1897312 1897349 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Government Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Government Budget 3.20 Dec-12 3.17 Dec-13 3.18 3.25 3.32 3.37 3.4 2.84 2.84 [+]
Government Debt To GDP 33.10 Dec-12 32.36 Dec-13 32.61 32.56 32.52 32.48 32.4 32.34 32.34 [+]
Government Budget Value 75862.00 Nov-13 24732 Mar-14 24732 -2930 -7411 15689 15309 15326 15326 [+]
Government Spending 45234.00 Nov-13 45843 Mar-14 45843 45141 45168 45887 56444 85150 279614 [+]
Credit Rating 95.39 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Business Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Industrial Production 0.50 Dec-13 -0.24 Mar-14 -0.33 -0.69 -0.69 -0.47 0.24 3.77 4.03 [+]
Bankruptcies 3977.00 Feb-14 5066 Feb-14 4846 4553 4419 4853 4874 1657 532 [+]
Business Confidence 6.00 Mar-14 15.1 Jun-14 4.24 15.1 18.02 13.51 9.71 31.32 6.82 [+]
Car Registrations 3496.00 Mar-14 3524 Mar-14 3628 3478 3830 3503 4156 6331 20792 [+]
Changes in Inventories 3594.00 Nov-13 815 Mar-14 815 2824 803 -210 378 40.32 105 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 49.90 Mar-14 49.5 Apr-14 51.01 50.91 50.84 50.85 50.85 50.88 50.88 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Consumer Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Retail Sales YoY -2.30 Feb-14 3.95 Feb-14 14.34 16.5 6.16 8.31 9.9 4.07 4.16 [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.00 Mar-14 5 Apr-14 4.98 5.08 5.09 5.06 5.04 5.02 5.02 [+]
Consumer Spending 347476.00 Nov-13 336212 Mar-14 336212 331901 334920 337560 415068 625436 2053735 [+]
Personal Savings 0.01 Mar-14 0.09 Apr-14 0.01 0.14 0.1 0.08 0.07 0.05 0.05 [+]
Consumer Confidence 105.00 Dec-13 112 Mar-14 112 116 116 112 105 311 682 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Taxes Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Corporate Tax Rate 16.50 Jan-14 17 Jun-14 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 Jan-14 15 Jun-14 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Housing Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Housing Index 15578.00 Feb-14 18880 Mar-14 18880 18328 15167 14602 14108 14254 14266 [+]

Trading Economics forecasts are driven by our own analysts’ expectations and technically projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. First, we model the past behaviour of a time series by using vast amounts of historical data. Then, we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account, our own analyst’s assessments and future expectations. While we work hard to make our predictions accurate, please note that past performance of our forecast model is not necessarily indicative of future results. Moreover, please take into account that because countries publish their data releases in different dates and sometimes with significant delays we may have to project past data which has already some time but was not yet released by official sources. If you have any question please email us at contact@tradingeconomics.com



RELATED NEWS

Hong Kong Unemployment Rate Unchanged in March  
Hong Kong’ seasonally adjusted jobless rate remained steady at 3.1 percent for the third consecutive period in January to March of 2014, down from 3.5 percent a year earlier.
Hong Kong Inflation Rate Unchanged in March  
Hong Kong annual consumer prices rose 3.9 percent in March of 2014, the same rate recorded in February. In the first quarter of 2014, the inflation rate rose by 4.2 percent over a year earlier. The corresponding increase after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures was 3.8 percent.
Hong Kong Trade Deficit Widens 58% YoY in February  
Hong Kong’s trade deficit increased sharply to HKD 53.7 billion in February of 2014 as exports fell by an annual 1.3 percent. Yet, taking January and February as a whole to neutralize the distortion caused by the difference in timing of the Lunar New Year holidays, export performance in the first two months of 2014 was rather sluggish.
Hong Kong Inflation Rate Slows to 9-Month Low  
In February of 2014, Hong Kong’s inflation rate eased to 3.9 percent, down from 4.6 percent in the previous month. The smaller increase was mainly due to the difference in the timing of the Lunar New Year, which fell in late January and early February this year but in mid-February last year, resulting in smaller increase in prices for package tours and meals bought away from home. Cost of private housing rentals also slowed.
Hong Kong Unemployment Rate Stable at 3.1%  
In the period December of 2013 - February of 2014, Hong Kong jobless rate remained unchanged at a 16-year low 3.1 percent. Total employment declined from its historic high, as business activities returned to a more normal level after its peak in Lunar New Year.
Hong Kong Economy Advances 1.1% QoQ in Q4  
In the fourth quarter of 2013, Hong Kong’s GDP expanded at its fastest pace in the last four quarters at 1.1 percent on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis
Hong Kong GDP Growth Accelerates in Q4  
In the fourth quarter of 2013, Hong Kong's economy expanded at a faster 3 percent over a year earlier, up from a downward revised 2.8 percent in the previous three-month period. In 2014, the economy is expected to grow between 3 to 4 percent, better than a 2.9 percent expansion in 2013.
Hong Kong Trade Deficit Narrows Sharply in January  
In January of 2014, Hong Kong’s trade deficit decreased 63 percent over a month earlier to HKD 19.8 billion, due to a fall in imports. A year earlier the trade deficit reached HKD 27.5 billion, as the Chinese New Year fell in late January and early February in 2014 but in mid-February in 2013.
Hong Kong Inflation Rate Accelerates in January  
In January of 2014, Hong Kong’s annual inflation rate rose 4.6 percent, the highest rate in the last four months, due mainly to the difference in timing of the Lunar New Year, which fell in late January and early February this year, but in mid-February last year.
Hong Kong Unemployment Rate Edges Down in January  
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased from 3.2 percent in October - December 2013 to 3.1 percent in November 2013 - January 2014. It is the lowest jobless rate in almost 16 years, as total employment hit a fresh new high due to the Lunar New Year, while the number of unemployed persons declined for the fifth consecutive month.
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LATEST NEWS

US Durable Goods Orders Surge in March  
New orders for manufactured durable goods in March increased $6.0 billion or 2.6 percent to $234.8 billion. This increase, up two consecutive months, followed a 2.1 percent February increase.
US Jobless Claims Rise in Latest Week  
In the week ending April 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 329,000, an increase of 24,000 from the previous week's revised level. There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.
Central Bank of Turkey Leaves Main Rates on Hold  
The Monetary Policy Committee decided on April 24th, 2014, to leave the one-week repo rate on hold at 10.0 percent for the third straight meeting. The Central Bank said it will maintain the current policy stance until there is a significant improvement in the outlook for inflation.
Swiss Trade Surplus Narrows Further in March  
The trade surplus decreased 10.6 percent in March of 2014 from the previous month to CHF 2.1 billion as imports rose at a higher pace than exports. Compared with a year earlier, the trade balance increased by 17.2 percent, driven by stronger sales of pharmaceuticals and chemicals products, and machinery to Europe and China.
Polish Unemployment Rate Falls in March  
Poland’s jobless rate dropped for the second straight month in March of 2014 to 13.5 percent, down from 13.9 percent in February and below market forecasts. A year earlier, unemployment was recorded at 14.3 percent.
South Korean Economy Expands at a Fastest Pace  
In the first quarter of 2014, South Korea’s GDP accelerated for the fourth straight quarter to an annual 3.9 percent growth rate, driven by exports.
South Korea GDP Growth Beats Expectations in Q1  
South Korean GDP expanded a seasonally adjusted 0.9 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2014, the same rate recorded in the previous quarter and above market expectations.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Increases Interest Rate to 3.0%  
At its April 23rd, 2014 meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifted the benchmark interest rate for the second straight meeting by 25 bps to 3.0 percent, as inflationary pressures were increasing and were expected to continue doing so over the next two years.
US New Home Sales Fall Sharply in March  
Sales of new single-family houses dropped 14.5 percent in March of 2014 to their lowest level in eight months. Sales were recorded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 384,000, below the revised February rate of 449,000.
US Markit Manufacturing PMI Steady in April  
At 55.4 in April, the Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI was down fractionally from 55.5 in March, but still well above the neutral 50.0 value. Sharper rates of output and new business growth boosted the Manufacturing PMI during April, while the main negative influence on the headline index was a rise in the suppliers’ delivery times component.
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This page includes economic forecasts for Hong Kong. 4/24/2014