Hong Kong | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.7 1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.40 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.20 1.9 3 2.9 2.7 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.75 1 1 1.25 1.25 4.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -37223.00 -37542 -36586 -36312 -36228 -36191 HKD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 32.00 35 37 37 37 31 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Currency 7.75 7.84 7.92 7.99 8.07 9.31 [+]
Stock Market 22760.98 22000 21800 21500 21300 17800 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.45 1.4 1.42 1.43 1.45 1.67 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.7 1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.90 2.3 2.7 2 2.4 3.2 percent [+]
GDP 309.93 306 310 310 310 366 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 599702.00 621039 577319 577120 617212 696775 HKD Million [+]
Gross National Product 602539.00 634880 604778 604520 637841 698351 HKD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 130848.00 135838 119986 130872 124205 142929 HKD Million [+]
GDP per capita 36117.10 36090 36100 36100 36100 37120 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 53379.74 53300 53250 53250 53250 55560 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 400.00 305 273 290 287 251 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 25315.00 25337 25117 25442 25357 26053 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 6836.00 6974 6377 6817 7112 6913 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 102175.00 101097 98011 104660 103797 108310 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Services 503254.00 506941 507493 507317 507373 507359 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Transport 31831.00 35108 34321 34328 34334 35127 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 9406.00 8232 8116 9466 10181 8264 HKD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.40 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 4 percent [+]
Employed Persons 3810.90 3811 3815 3816 3817 3825 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 136.10 131 131 130 130 130 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.00 60.94 61.04 61.01 61.01 61.01 percent [+]
Labour Costs 135.90 141 157 139 137 146 Index Points [+]
Productivity 155.20 157 158 159 160 167 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 68199.00 65802 65860 64960 64906 63717 [+]
Wages 15129.00 15256 15288 15329 15363 15594 HKD/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 203.60 205 206 208 209 230 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 32.50 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 37 HKD/Hour [+]
Population 7.30 7.33 7.34 7.35 7.36 7.47 Million [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 6.30 5.5 5.8 5.81 5.77 5.79 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Inflation Rate 1.20 1.9 3 2.9 2.7 3.8 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 103.30 104 104 105 105 110 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 105.90 106 106 107 107 110 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 106.60 107 107 107 108 108 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 98.40 98.22 98.02 97.85 97.69 96.76 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 98.20 98.38 98.44 98.47 98.5 98.57 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 102.50 102 102 102 102 102 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.60 2.44 2.27 2.14 2.06 1.85 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 0.16 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change -2.80 -1.27 -1.41 -2.03 -2.26 -1.85 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.75 1 1 1.25 1.25 4.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.72 0.63 0.67 0.65 0.66 0.66 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 373768.00 380242 388529 396995 405642 536578 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 2234444.00 2240483 2311210 2384627 2460665 3708548 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 12390203.00 12410302 12642161 12887639 13144680 17226592 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 12431638.00 12493617 12480238 12466061 12451933 12273462 HKD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 383100.00 388322 395272 401180 406938 473156 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 20119869.00 20145758 20121070 20096464 20071967 19763240 HKD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 7824071.00 7900191 7982106 8056559 8123448 8567948 HKD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Balance of Trade -37223.00 -37542 -36586 -36312 -36228 -36191 HKD Million [+]
Exports 313726.00 306725 300505 302477 303179 302904 HKD Million [+]
Imports 350949.00 345825 341153 341395 341531 341515 HKD Million [+]
Current Account 14937.00 29000 29000 29000 22350 26300 HKD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 3.10 4.13 4 3.88 3.75 4.3 percent [+]
Terms of Trade 100.20 101 101 101 101 102 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 8918.00 -25348 -8484 1176 -16891 -12552 HKD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 2144636.00 2165171 2061656 2147568 2042599 2148192 [+]
Gold Reserves 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 Tonnes [+]
External Debt 9928749.00 9892092 9896893 9902273 9907634 9917654 HKD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 12844.17 13141 13283 13425 13567 15549 HKD Billion [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 32.00 35 37 37 37 31 percent [+]
Government Budget 1.30 0.33 0.53 0.73 0.93 0.75 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -25624.00 59513 19494 -26055 -18126 31894 HKD Million [+]
Government Spending 56872.00 57154 61113 56566 58520 62469 HKD Million [+]
Government Revenues 63004.00 148957 116003 60426 69955 130023 HKD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 88628.00 86821 90637 86798 89560 88294 HKD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Business Confidence 2.00 -12 -12 -12 0.69 2.85 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 49.50 49.8 50.1 49.3 50.2 51.8 [+]
Industrial Production -0.50 0.5 -0.2 0.8 0.4 3.4 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 3315.00 3078 1368 1271 2135 1984 HKD Million [+]
Bankruptcies 8393.00 8869 8713 8388 8240 8197 Companies [+]
Car Registrations 2893.00 2867 2871 2873 2873 2874 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.48 5.46 5.46 5.46 5.46 5.48 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 9.00 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.73 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 4.00 4.02 3.84 3.75 3.67 3.5 [+]
Corruption Index 75.00 73.68 73.66 73.64 73.62 75.91 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 18.00 18 18 18 18 14 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 87.00 89.11 87.48 87.67 87.73 87.8 [+]
Retail Sales YoY -2.70 -4.2 1.8 2.6 3 4.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 386824.00 415050 402664 421108 408915 497421 HKD Million [+]
Personal Savings 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 66.60 66.25 66.14 66.05 65.97 65.72 percent of GDP [+]
Retail Sales Mom -0.70 1.06 0.99 0.65 0.69 0.67 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Housing Index 135.83 140 142 143 143 143 Index points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 50.40 49.94 49.84 49.74 49.63 48.48 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 16.50 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Hong Kong including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Hong Kong economy. 12/11/2016