Hong Kong | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.40 -0.1 0.1 0.2 1.05 0.94 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.40 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.60 2.8 2.9 3 2.69 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.75 1.25 1.5 1.5 0.74 4.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -26228.00 -35369 -34546 -34198 -34090 -34056 HKD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 32.00 32.26 32.12 32.21 32.29 32.7 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Currency 7.76 7.93 8 8.08 7.75 9.32 [+]
Stock Market 20794.00 20500 20300 20100 20794 16800 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.00 1.35 1.36 1.37 1.2 1.58 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.40 -0.1 0.1 0.2 1.05 0.94 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.80 0.9 1 1.2 3.02 3.2 percent [+]
GDP 290.90 302 307 310 312 356 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 564788.00 603620 631739 587802 578136 705009 HKD Million [+]
Gross National Product 583639.00 622400 640209 610196 608159 703793 HKD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 113396.00 124740 139278 128469 139023 149571 HKD Million [+]
GDP per capita 34222.29 34635 34673 34863 35054 38256 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 52551.60 52805 52950 53241 53532 58910 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 308.00 318 342 328 323 267 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 24015.00 24166 24861 24247 24122 24470 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 6377.00 7142 6981 6377 6828 6924 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 95283.00 101231 100668 97548 103438 106319 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Services 507326.00 498528 497317 497691 497576 497603 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Transport 34704.00 36567 36425 35921 36125 39327 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 8089.00 10214 8236 8122 9497 8284 HKD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.40 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 3800.90 3809 3808 3810 3811 3819 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 134.60 133 133 133 133 133 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.10 61.14 61.11 61.12 61.12 61.12 percent [+]
Labour Costs 137.40 133 140 153 136 143 Index Points [+]
Productivity 153.70 157 158 159 160 178 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 70301.00 68958 67941 67683 67672 66673 [+]
Wages 15126.00 15390 15489 15560 15634 16133 HKD/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 200.00 205 206 208 209 230 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 32.50 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 37 HKD/Hour [+]
Population 7.30 7.31 7.33 7.34 7.35 7.47 Million [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 5.10 4.64 4.78 4.72 4.74 4.73 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Inflation Rate 2.60 2.8 2.9 3 2.69 3.8 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 102.30 103 104 104 105 111 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 104.50 106 106 106 107 111 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 103.80 104 104 104 104 104 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 97.90 96.34 95.62 94.99 94.44 91.45 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 97.30 96.47 96.07 95.76 95.52 94.77 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 101.10 100 101 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 3.10 2.6 2.25 1.93 1.72 1.14 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10 0.14 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change -3.20 -1.49 -1.89 -1.83 -2.4 -2.27 Index points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.75 1.25 1.5 1.5 0.74 4.75 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.57 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 364078.00 380557 389353 398348 407545 560577 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 2052446.00 2179917 2238158 2299652 2363933 3511178 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 11758279.00 12122367 12327621 12542935 12767278 16624078 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 11792912.00 11773761 11760461 11747221 11734042 11555722 HKD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 360300.00 364876 368283 371559 374706 407741 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 19200753.00 19158809 19130645 19102645 19074807 18701714 HKD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 7543730.00 7546954 7555398 7562722 7569234 7612181 HKD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Balance of Trade -26228.00 -35369 -34546 -34198 -34090 -34056 HKD Million [+]
Exports 291500.00 297740 292180 293173 293830 293636 HKD Million [+]
Imports 317728.00 322689 321631 321627 321648 321647 HKD Million [+]
Current Account 17553.00 30748 28991 28992 28071 26275 HKD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 3.10 3.26 4.13 4 3.88 4.3 percent [+]
Terms of Trade 100.70 101 101 101 102 103 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 10251.00 -29047 -32323 -13143 -20310 -28785 HKD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1969983.00 1965323 2066776 1965672 2066420 2065489 [+]
Gold Reserves 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 Tonnes [+]
External Debt 9806748.00 9468531 9364026 9303280 9268240 9270007 HKD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 12844.17 12843 13141 13283 13425 15549 HKD Billion [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 32.00 32.26 32.12 32.21 32.29 32.7 percent [+]
Government Budget 1.30 1.06 0.33 0.53 0.73 0.75 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 19949.00 -32100 58598 20496 -19840 30150 HKD Million [+]
Government Spending 59769.00 56942 57231 61106 56867 62815 HKD Million [+]
Government Revenues 116700.00 57575 148163 116292 60315 128681 HKD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 96751.00 93248 87841 93086 88206 90182 HKD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Business Confidence -4.00 -14 -12 -1.09 -0.5 0.25 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 47.20 43.6 44.7 46.7 46.53 51.8 [+]
Industrial Production -0.40 -2.8 -1.9 -0.8 0.64 3.4 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -657.00 -5549 -2675 -2042 -2754 -3124 HKD Million [+]
Bankruptcies 8832.00 8321 8689 8769 8554 8550 Companies [+]
Car Registrations 2604.00 2855 2883 2890 2892 2893 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.46 5.45 5.45 5.46 5.46 5.49 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 7.00 7.08 7.08 7 6.97 6.97 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 5.00 4 4 3.91 3.83 3.5 [+]
Corruption Index 75.00 73.83 73.7 73.68 73.66 75.92 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 18.00 18 18 18 18 14 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 88.00 87.17 88.39 86.82 86.91 87.06 [+]
Retail Sales YoY -9.00 -5.3 -3.1 2.6 -8.57 4.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 388007.00 402752 427995 417543 439769 521060 HKD Million [+]
Personal Savings 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 67.10 67.65 67.73 67.84 67.92 68.32 percent of GDP [+]
Retail Sales Mom 0.90 -0.25 1.12 0.46 0.71 0.7 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Housing Index 125.55 124 124 124 124 124 Index points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 51.00 50.6 50.62 50.53 50.45 49.17 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 16.50 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Hong Kong including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Hong Kong economy. 7/1/2016