Hong Kong | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.98 1.06 0.99 0.99 0.95 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.30 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.50 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.39 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 4.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -45706.00 -40722 -38868 -38452 -38370 -38368 HKD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 32.00 32.53 32.4 32.26 32.12 32.7 percent [+]
Markets Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Currency 7.79 7.83 7.98 8.06 8.14 6.2 [+]
Stock Market 18319.95 18600 18100 17500 17100 23800 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.46 1.6 1.65 1.73 1.81 2.36 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.98 1.06 0.99 0.99 0.95 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.30 2.28 2.6 2.5 3.3 3.05 percent [+]
GDP 290.90 291 296 302 307 356 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 571655.00 558184 549833 595022 618489 699159 HKD Million [+]
Gross National Product 592470.00 577784 582400 610918 627846 706981 HKD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 120545.00 127265 138911 131088 149030 165924 HKD Million [+]
GDP per capita 34222.29 34560 34597 34635 34673 38256 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 52551.60 52594 52897 53201 53504 60587 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 289.00 289 315 290 314 312 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 21805.00 23921 23259 22920 24145 24570 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 7734.00 6804 7308 7653 7438 7345 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 95257.00 92597 97711 97466 96664 103185 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Services 518049.00 522106 522697 522511 522570 522555 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Transport 32739.00 32649 30158 32793 33007 32705 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 10343.00 7967 9477 10283 8107 8053 HKD Million [+]
Labour Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.30 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3 percent [+]
Employed Persons 3803.90 3811 3813 3817 3820 3839 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 121.60 113 111 111 110 110 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.10 61.19 61.16 61.17 61.17 61.17 percent [+]
Labour Costs 130.70 152 134 132 139 142 Index Points [+]
Productivity 153.00 152 152 153 154 151 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 74666.00 75238 75324 74126 73833 73967 [+]
Wages 14877.00 15069 15172 15236 15304 15767 HKD/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 199.10 204 207 210 213 283 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 32.50 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 37 HKD/Hour [+]
Population 7.23 7.26 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.32 Million [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 5.60 4.93 5.25 5.18 5.18 5.18 percent [+]
Prices Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Inflation Rate 2.50 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.39 3.8 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 126.40 127 128 129 130 144 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 107.70 109 110 111 111 118 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 103.40 101 101 101 100 98.75 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 101.60 101 101 101 101 100 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 100.60 99.87 99.53 99.27 99.08 98.38 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 4.30 4.15 4.24 4.26 4.3 4.38 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.24 0.37 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change -4.40 -4.68 -3.62 -3.14 -3.04 -3.39 Index points [+]
Money Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Interest Rate 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 4.75 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.67 0.62 0.56 0.55 0.56 0.56 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 349340.00 352750 360310 368033 375922 527867 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1971164.00 2082842 2135052 2192148 2252860 3550614 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 11618459.00 11763593 11997448 12240059 12490714 17445505 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 11655037.00 11676766 11662525 11648107 11633758 11413511 HKD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 357000.00 359550 363555 367501 371303 416030 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 19180421.00 19209717 19179260 19148244 19117409 18649035 HKD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 7534504.00 7526732 7530206 7533978 7537350 7560873 HKD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 percent [+]
Trade Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Balance of Trade -45706.00 -40722 -38868 -38452 -38370 -38368 HKD Million [+]
Exports 309179.00 305763 307261 307818 307627 307579 HKD Million [+]
Imports 354885.00 348883 347881 347917 347941 347941 HKD Million [+]
Current Account 48444.00 29400 24730 27948 26449 30444 HKD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 1.90 1.36 1.3 1.25 1.2 1.42 percent [+]
Terms of Trade 101.00 101 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -19769.00 -30812 -27683 -26564 -30324 -30850 HKD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 2092228.00 1959251 2064654 1953570 2066203 2064388 [+]
Gold Reserves 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 11602.90 11247 11527 11807 12087 14507 HKD Billion [+]
External Debt 10267199.00 10353687 10330371 10334512 10322414 10305598 HKD Million [+]
Government Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Government Debt to GDP 32.00 32.53 32.4 32.26 32.12 32.7 percent [+]
Government Budget 2.80 1.21 1.76 2.31 2.86 0.92 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -43621.00 36588 -18524 -34797 49753 25966 HKD Million [+]
Government Spending 52620.00 58495 54186 56097 58223 69407 HKD Million [+]
Government Revenues 48026.00 126152 62384 56139 140673 124483 HKD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 91647.00 88129 83335 88027 83757 85570 HKD Million [+]
Credit Rating 94.46 [+]
Business Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Business Confidence -11.00 -9.22 -10.32 -9.37 -5.85 -6.83 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 46.10 46.35 46.28 46.31 46.31 46.31 [+]
Industrial Production -1.90 -1.6 -1.63 -1.81 -1.81 -1.81 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -5460.00 -2591 -5778 -5327 -3998 -4368 HKD Million [+]
Bankruptcies 6198.00 9734 9378 8949 9049 8955 Companies [+]
Car Registrations 4635.00 4060 4003 3988 3982 3978 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.46 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.49 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 7.00 7.08 7.08 7.08 7.08 6.97 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 5.00 4 4 4 4 3.5 [+]
Corruption Index 75.00 75.36 76.05 76.74 77.43 78.43 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 18.00 17.43 17.58 17.73 17.88 13.96 [+]
Consumer Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Consumer Confidence 99.00 101 101 99.92 100 100 [+]
Retail Sales YoY -6.10 -5.56 -5.44 -5.41 -5.4 -5.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 370368.00 392000 418691 396275 431781 565025 HKD Million [+]
Personal Savings 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 66.60 67.47 67.7 67.85 68 68.83 percent of GDP [+]
Retail Sales Mom 15.80 0.7 0.76 0.5 0.6 0.74 percent [+]
Housing Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Housing Index 136.51 133 132 132 131 131 Index points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 51.00 51 51 51 51 51 percent [+]
Taxes Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 16.50 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Hong Kong including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Hong Kong economy. 2/14/2016