Hong Kong | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.69 1.11 1.05 1.02 0.95 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.40 3.48 3.51 3.51 3.51 3.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.00 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.23 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.5 4.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -47028.00 -39471 -36997 -36468 -36393 -36436 HKD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 32.00 32.52 32.09 31.65 31.57 31.62 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Currency 7.76 7.91 7.98 8.06 8.14 4.65 [+]
Stock Market 20450.00 21000 20400 19700 19300 26800 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.34 1.31 1.34 1.41 1.47 1.92 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.69 1.11 1.05 1.02 0.95 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.90 1.9 1.7 1.8 2.2 3.2 percent [+]
GDP 290.90 297 302 307 308 301 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 596732.00 598813 598978 598937 598947 598945 HKD Million [+]
Gross National Product 614885.00 574990 605738 602824 605915 658807 HKD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 132315.00 126955 119555 126215 120343 121419 HKD Million [+]
GDP per capita 34222.29 34422 34468 34515 34678 36798 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 52551.60 52841 52949 53058 53275 55945 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 267.00 290 273 265 248 267 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 24708.00 24259 23989 24960 25102 25623 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 7569.00 7363 7686 7529 6860 7462 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 94783.00 97741 97591 96984 94645 103389 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Services 548013.00 550480 550763 550682 550705 550700 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Transport 32908.00 30082 32375 33189 33129 32901 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 8166.00 9348 10107 8165 7936 8152 HKD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.40 3.48 3.51 3.51 3.51 3.2 percent [+]
Employed Persons 3811.80 3812 3817 3819 3821 3837 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 130.40 138 140 141 141 141 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.40 61.34 61.35 61.35 61.35 61.35 percent [+]
Labour Costs 137.40 134 133 140 153 143 Index Points [+]
Productivity 153.00 153 154 154 155 180 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 71241.00 73326 72326 74309 70766 72729 [+]
Wages 15126.00 15313 15390 15489 15560 16133 HKD/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 199.10 205 206 208 209 230 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 32.50 33.63 33.56 33.41 33.19 37 HKD/Hour [+]
Population 7.30 7.28 7.3 7.32 7.33 7.4 Million [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 62.5 63.75 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 62.5 63.75 65 65 65 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 5.50 5.5 5.46 5.48 5.47 5.47 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Inflation Rate 3.00 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.23 3.8 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 127.60 129 130 131 132 145 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 108.30 109 110 110 111 117 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 102.40 102 101 101 100 98.91 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 98.50 96.92 95.97 95.17 94.48 90.61 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 98.00 96.52 95.81 95.28 94.88 93.59 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 112.70 113 113 113 113 114 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 5.60 5.37 5.3 5.32 5.32 5.32 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.30 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change -3.20 -0.72 0.06 0.54 0.77 0.86 Index points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.5 4.75 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.55 0.49 0.5 0.51 0.51 0.51 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 363543.00 375905 384523 393336 402348 564885 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 2076634.00 2075794 2136471 2200648 2267799 3591406 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 11747635.00 11917777 12120118 12333729 12557338 16778580 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 11783190.00 11788313 11774787 11761212 11747698 11552302 HKD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 361900.00 366384 370722 374894 378905 423508 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 19187722.00 19197140 19168620 19139995 19111537 18704131 HKD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 7522375.00 7516685 7518827 7520539 7521950 7531310 HKD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Balance of Trade -47028.00 -39471 -36997 -36468 -36393 -36436 HKD Million [+]
Exports 275360.00 287747 288800 284184 283650 284337 HKD Million [+]
Imports 322388.00 323577 320347 319325 319264 319281 HKD Million [+]
Current Account 26535.00 -3089 27850 17991 18368 18275 HKD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 3.10 2.07 2.89 3.7 3.69 4.35 percent [+]
Terms of Trade 100.50 100 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -55646.00 -14623 -44152 -29470 -32679 -31857 HKD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 2001552.00 2061556 1972103 2078646 1973695 2075762 [+]
Gold Reserves 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 Tonnes [+]
External Debt 10104981.00 10016915 9987550 9965005 9947696 9891562 HKD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 11602.90 11527 11807 12087 12208 14507 HKD Billion [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 32.00 32.52 32.09 31.65 31.57 31.62 percent [+]
Government Budget 2.80 1.5 1.66 1.83 1.28 1.16 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 72751.00 -17421 -34608 37211 17831 13649 HKD Million [+]
Government Spending 53167.00 52170 54255 54308 57978 57632 HKD Million [+]
Government Revenues 156587.00 61890 57039 149150 126308 131395 HKD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 83836.00 84236 88624 84776 87848 86375 HKD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Business Confidence -4.00 -14 -14 -12 -1.09 0.25 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 45.30 45.77 45.67 45.71 45.7 45.7 [+]
Industrial Production -1.10 -1.68 -1.75 -1.68 -1.6 -1.57 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -628.00 2735 -1256 1098 1954 2400 HKD Million [+]
Bankruptcies 7536.00 9478 8807 9047 8855 8847 Companies [+]
Car Registrations 2794.00 2970 3027 3038 3040 3041 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.46 5.42 5.42 5.42 5.39 5.28 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 7.00 7 7 7 7 11 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 [+]
Corruption Index 75.00 75 75 76 76 77 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 18.00 18 18 18 18 14 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 99.00 103 101 102 102 102 [+]
Retail Sales YoY -8.80 -12.55 -12.93 -13 -13.01 -13.01 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 397887.00 397848 381720 397809 381759 397503 HKD Million [+]
Personal Savings 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 67.00 68.16 68.38 68.58 68.78 69.69 percent of GDP [+]
Retail Sales Mom -6.00 2.6 0.85 0.5 0.89 0.71 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Housing Index 126.59 122 120 120 119 119 Index points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 51.00 50.41 50.38 50.35 50.17 46.93 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 16.50 16.52 16.52 16.52 16.52 16.61 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15.07 15.07 15.07 15.09 15 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Hong Kong including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Hong Kong economy. 5/5/2016