Hong Kong | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.4 1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.30 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.20 3 2.9 2.7 3.1 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.00 1 1.25 1.25 1.5 4.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -45477.00 -36371 -36063 -35946 -35905 -35887 HKD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 32.00 37 37 37 37 31 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 7.76 7.92 7.99 8.07 8.15 9.31 [+]
Stock Market 24146.08 21300 21100 20900 20700 17400 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.89 2.15 2.17 2.19 1.63 2.53 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.4 1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.90 2.7 2 2.4 2.5 3.2 percent [+]
GDP 309.23 310 310 310 310 366 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 599702.00 577319 577120 617212 643372 696775 HKD Million [+]
Gross National Product 629332.00 606301 617385 643186 650066 702238 HKD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 130848.00 119986 130872 124205 138106 142929 HKD Million [+]
GDP per capita 36173.30 36100 36100 36100 36100 37120 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 53463.00 53250 53250 53250 53250 55560 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 358.00 361 410 372 367 316 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 24121.00 24914 25100 24685 25074 25309 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 7169.00 6405 6841 7167 7002 6977 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 101585.00 97972 104621 103690 103165 108151 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Services 542617.00 546140 546651 546490 546541 546528 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Transport 35144.00 32268 30676 32591 32769 35162 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 10287.00 8122 9473 10263 8255 8291 HKD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.30 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 4 percent [+]
Employed Persons 3831.10 3837 3834 3841 3843 3862 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 119.20 119 116 116 116 116 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.10 61.34 61.2 61.24 61.23 61.23 percent [+]
Labour Costs 134.60 157 139 137 143 146 Index Points [+]
Productivity 155.20 157 157 157 157 167 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 69341.00 68414 67140 68144 67140 66891 [+]
Wages 15447.00 15589 15660 15758 15828 16317 HKD/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 206.60 209 210 212 213 220 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 34.50 32.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 40 HKD/Hour [+]
Population 7.30 7.27 7.29 7.31 7.33 7.47 Million [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 5.70 6.52 6.42 6.43 6.43 6.43 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 1.20 3 2.9 2.7 3.1 3.8 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 103.80 104 105 105 106 110 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 105.90 106 107 107 107 110 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 107.40 107 107 108 108 108 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 99.60 99.84 100 100 100 101 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 99.10 99.51 99.8 100 100 101 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 102.50 102 102 102 102 102 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 3.10 3.06 3.06 3.1 3.11 3.15 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 0.2 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.90 4.74 3.26 1.66 1.14 2.26 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 1.00 1 1.25 1.25 1.5 4.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.94 0.96 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.87 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 390470.00 386124 391769 397443 403081 469190 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 2213970.00 2324498 2377279 2430362 2483259 3104905 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 12507980.00 12818329 13026914 13235106 13442653 15882448 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 12551184.00 12862848 13072380 13281524 13490008 15939528 HKD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 391500.00 395646 401772 407586 413293 475020 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 20653978.00 20798679 21069502 21336088 21598840 24443897 HKD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 8023390.00 8021418 8106300 8183208 8252406 8696315 HKD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -45477.00 -36371 -36063 -35946 -35905 -35887 HKD Million [+]
Exports 340340.00 309069 309105 311055 311176 310953 HKD Million [+]
Imports 385817.00 350746 350191 350634 350704 350693 HKD Million [+]
Current Account 45561.00 29000 29000 25107 30300 26300 HKD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 3.10 1.5 2.38 3.26 4.13 4.3 percent [+]
Terms of Trade 100.50 101 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -75890.00 -6603 -15701 -45858 -38462 -29649 HKD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 5336027.00 4771630 4732940 4727410 4732221 4732242 [+]
Gold Reserves 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 Tonnes [+]
External Debt 10375352.00 10732424 10830670 10891884 10930107 10985404 HKD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 12844.17 12246 12544 12843 13141 15549 HKD Billion [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 32.00 37 37 37 37 31 percent [+]
Government Budget 1.30 2.5 1.78 1.06 0.33 0.75 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 108170.00 15706 -34940 -18274 88780 56947 HKD Million [+]
Government Spending 56872.00 61113 56566 58520 58639 62469 HKD Million [+]
Government Revenues 196647.00 122693 58938 75236 187455 168036 HKD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 88477.00 91107 87703 90196 88570 89132 HKD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence -1.00 -12 -12 0.69 2.22 2.85 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 49.90 50.1 49.3 50.2 50.2 51.8 [+]
Industrial Production -0.10 0.5 -0.2 0.8 0.4 3.4 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 3315.00 1368 1271 2135 2474 1984 HKD Million [+]
Bankruptcies 10149.00 9463 8861 8701 8636 8599 Companies [+]
Car Registrations 3099.00 3094 3090 3088 3088 3087 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.48 5.46 5.46 5.46 5.46 5.48 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 9.00 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.73 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 4.00 3.93 3.84 3.75 3.67 3.5 [+]
Corruption Index 77.00 75 76 77 77 77 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 15.00 18 18 18 18 14 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 95.00 94.38 93.87 94.88 95.17 94.8 [+]
Retail Sales YoY -2.80 1.8 2.6 3 4.8 4.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 386824.00 402863 421539 409057 434732 495285 HKD Million [+]
Personal Savings 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 66.40 66.23 66.15 66.09 66.06 65.87 percent of GDP [+]
Retail Sales Mom 19.50 0.69 0.54 0.31 0.53 0.68 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Housing Index 140.66 148 149 150 150 150 Index points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 50.40 50.45 50.28 50.11 49.94 48.48 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 16.50 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Hong Kong including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Hong Kong economy. 2/20/2017