Hong Kong | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.6 1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.30 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.9 percent [+]
Inflation Rate -0.10 0.4 1.3 1.6 2.1 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.5 4.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -12345.00 -35156 -33386 -32651 -32511 -32606 HKD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 32.00 37 37 37 37 31 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 7.77 7.84 7.92 7.99 8.15 9.31 [+]
Stock Market 24358.27 23500 23300 23100 22600 19000 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.70 1.81 1.83 1.84 1.86 2.15 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.6 1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.10 3.4 2.7 2.5 2.3 3.2 percent [+]
GDP 309.23 310 310 310 310 366 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 633461.00 639610 638120 638481 638393 638410 HKD Million [+]
Gross National Product 665263.00 618318 622628 652620 674989 690904 HKD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 141435.00 126033 132687 131946 140684 136924 HKD Million [+]
GDP per capita 36173.30 36100 36100 36100 36100 37120 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 53463.00 53250 53250 53250 53250 55560 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 330.00 298 366 333 331 336 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 28203.00 26708 26334 26503 28278 28976 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 6956.00 6353 6807 7130 6920 6872 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 100838.00 97853 104503 103561 102823 107489 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Services 576119.00 580955 579552 579959 579841 579867 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Transport 36979.00 36519 34084 38889 36693 36332 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 7807.00 7893 9130 9871 7770 7672 HKD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.30 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.9 percent [+]
Employed Persons 3824.40 3819 3820 3822 3823 3832 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 119.40 121 120 120 120 120 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.20 61.26 61.16 61.18 61.18 61.18 percent [+]
Labour Costs 134.60 138 138 138 138 138 Index Points [+]
Productivity 155.20 157 157 157 157 167 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 67141.00 67530 66129 67283 65860 65494 [+]
Wages 15447.00 15589 15660 15758 15828 16317 HKD/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 206.60 209 210 212 213 220 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 34.50 32.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 40 HKD/Hour [+]
Population 7.30 7.27 7.29 7.31 7.33 7.47 Million [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 5.50 5.5 5.48 5.51 5.5 5.5 percent [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate -0.10 0.4 1.3 1.6 2.1 3.8 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 103.70 104 104 105 105 109 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 106.90 106 107 108 108 113 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 106.50 106 106 107 107 107 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 99.50 99.61 99.75 99.86 99.96 100 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 98.40 98.48 98.39 98.37 98.35 98.32 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 116.50 119 116 116 116 116 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.40 1.17 0.06 -0.36 -0.81 -2.09 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00 0.21 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 4.00 3.87 2.31 0.68 0.45 1.65 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.5 4.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.94 0.95 0.84 0.85 0.86 0.86 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 417173.00 411128 420329 427546 435270 525645 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 2194430.00 2259449 2301807 2347681 2394091 2937141 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 12701856.00 12827522 13047370 13258717 13468833 15939054 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 12744653.00 12871413 13092305 13304605 13515637 15995324 HKD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 390500.00 392064 397496 402825 408073 465222 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 20478505.00 20800600 21035951 21290450 21546588 24336802 HKD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 8176135.00 8261212 8440478 8595640 8734198 9612237 HKD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -12345.00 -35156 -33386 -32651 -32511 -32606 HKD Million [+]
Exports 296299.00 298961 304208 307918 307460 307202 HKD Million [+]
Imports 308643.00 335022 338954 339762 339488 339477 HKD Million [+]
Current Account 34834.00 29000 29000 39165 30300 26300 HKD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 4.50 4.29 4.19 4.1 4 4.73 percent [+]
Terms of Trade 101.10 101 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -66102.00 -11723 -10764 -55868 -55200 -40114 HKD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 5475176.00 5143739 5190692 5179687 5177484 5180448 [+]
Gold Reserves 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 Tonnes [+]
External Debt 10313247.00 10405406 10430416 10447547 10462238 10484155 HKD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 12844.17 12246 12544 12843 13141 15549 HKD Billion [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 32.00 37 37 37 37 31 percent [+]
Government Budget 1.30 2.5 1.78 1.06 0.33 0.75 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 108170.00 15706 -34940 -18274 88780 56947 HKD Million [+]
Government Spending 57388.00 61202 56674 58639 58934 62933 HKD Million [+]
Government Revenues 196647.00 122693 58938 75236 187455 168036 HKD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 88477.00 91107 87703 90196 88570 89132 HKD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence -1.00 -12 -12 0.69 2.22 2.85 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 49.60 50.1 49.3 50.2 50.2 51.8 [+]
Industrial Production -0.80 -0.2 0.8 0.4 1.1 3.4 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 4796.00 2041 2291 2628 3570 2854 HKD Million [+]
Bankruptcies 8570.00 9591 8982 8833 8774 8736 Companies [+]
Car Registrations 2530.00 2907 2885 2889 2892 2893 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.48 5.46 5.46 5.46 5.46 5.48 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 9.00 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.73 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 4.00 3.93 3.84 3.75 3.67 3.5 [+]
Corruption Index 77.00 75 76 77 77 77 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 15.00 18 18 18 18 14 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 93.00 89.75 90.16 91.48 91.13 90.9 [+]
Retail Sales YoY -1.40 1.8 2.6 3 4.8 4.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 421411.00 402749 421373 402786 421336 421113 HKD Million [+]
Personal Savings 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 66.70 66.91 66.88 66.92 66.97 67.11 percent of GDP [+]
Retail Sales Mom 2.30 -1.26 2.58 0.06 0.71 0.7 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Housing Index 142.16 143 144 145 145 145 Index points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 50.40 50.45 50.28 50.11 49.94 48.48 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 16.50 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Hong Kong including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Hong Kong economy. 3/26/2017