Hong Kong | Economic Forecasts | 2013-2015 Outlook

Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Markets Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Government Bond 10Y 2.21 Apr-14 2.16 May-14 2.96 2.72 2.3 2.36 3.3 3.02 3.74 [+]
Currency 7.75 Apr-14 7.76 May-14 7.76 7.75 7.75 7.76 7.75 7.76 7.76 [+]
Stock Market 22760.24 Apr-14 22307 May-14 21805 20708 20663 20879 22048 26002 28417 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
GDP Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 Dec-13 0.25 Mar-14 0.25 0.9 0.94 0.86 0.84 2.84 2.84 [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.00 Dec-13 3.75 Mar-14 3.75 2.87 2.91 2.96 2.99 2.99 2.99 [+]
GDP per capita 32741.76 Dec-12 33214 Dec-13 32855 32870 32885 32897 59832 194378 4889139 [+]
GDP per capita PPP 44770.11 Dec-12 45433 Dec-13 44930 44950 44970 44986 81817 265757 6684239 [+]
GDP Constant Prices 541592.00 Nov-13 524162 Mar-14 524162 517485 534216 538433 606101 761459 1501837 [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 136974.00 Nov-13 133924 Mar-14 133924 137036 139217 138224 135818 135957 135955 [+]
Gross National Product 556889.00 Nov-13 549649 Mar-14 549649 537850 555865 564572 635937 802633 1583389 [+]
GDP 263.26 Dec-12 279 Dec-13 278 280 283 285 530 1807 46061 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Labour Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Population 7.22 Dec-13 7.25 Jun-14 7.23 7.24 7.25 7.26 7.3 7.41 7.46 [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.10 Feb-14 3.1 Mar-14 3 2.9 2.9 3 3.2 5.1 6.1 [+]
Employed Persons 3731.90 Feb-14 3718 Mar-14 3748 3753 3752 3770 4239 5363 10580 [+]
Job Vacancies 72382.00 Dec-13 78162 Mar-14 78162 80421 78408 76563 73728 78111 76093 [+]
Labour Costs 129.30 Aug-13 132 Dec-13 140 136 132 137 137 137 137 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.70 Feb-14 61.1 Mar-14 61.1 61.03 61.06 61.06 61.11 61.1 61.1 [+]
Productivity 145.50 Jun-12 146 Dec-12 147 147 147 147 167 212 420 [+]
Unemployed Persons 112.50 Feb-14 117 Mar-14 120 122 125 112 117 116 116 [+]
Wages 195.20 Nov-13 198 Mar-14 198 202 204 206 214 257 312 [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 180.90 Nov-13 185 Mar-14 185 188 188 189 189 188 188 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Prices Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Inflation Rate 3.90 Feb-14 4.45 Mar-14 4.5 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.32 4.08 4.38 [+]
Consumer Price Index (CPI) 118.80 Feb-14 120 Mar-14 119 120 120 122 142 184 363 [+]
Export Prices 113.50 Jan-14 114 Feb-14 115 116 116 117 117 117 115 [+]
GDP Deflator 107.30 Nov-13 107 Mar-14 107 108 108 109 111 114 114 [+]
Import Prices 113.60 Jan-14 114 Feb-14 114 115 116 116 116 115 115 [+]
Producer Prices 107.10 Nov-13 104 Mar-14 104 102 101 101 117 149 293 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Money Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Interest Rate 0.50 Mar-14 0.5 Mar-14 0.5 0.5 1 1 1.5 0.5 0.5 [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 316800.00 Mar-14 317643 Apr-14 311052 312953 314677 320326 317922 309941 319047 [+]
Interbank Rate 0.37 Apr-14 0.25 May-14 0.01 0.76 0.75 0.75 1 1.33 2.59 [+]
Loans to Private Sector 6908393.18 Feb-14 6981195 Mar-14 6829826 7144351 7391336 7552014 8020941 7754580 7784991 [+]
Money Supply M0 322837.60 Feb-14 329265 Mar-14 326408 330598 338709 347050 424723 750282 2320043 [+]
Money Supply M1 1658246.64 Feb-14 1613071 Mar-14 1564853 1602251 1646978 1671639 1929648 2415621 4765319 [+]
Money Supply M2 10270051.08 Feb-14 10340379 Mar-14 10235667 10506605 10821762 11080450 12918160 14102701 31221758 [+]
Money Supply M3 10301634.36 Feb-14 10371637 Mar-14 10267314 10539588 10856181 11103341 12789030 15392111 25806136 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Trade Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Current Account 18952.00 Nov-13 24496 Mar-14 24496 12740 12109 28067 26998 24584 24572 [+]
Balance of Trade -53673.00 Feb-14 -52096 Mar-14 -52099 -47803 -44309 -50422 -55537 -70566 -139177 [+]
Exports 212914.00 Feb-14 284220 Mar-14 287769 294713 305849 294757 331354 419881 828304 [+]
Imports 266587.00 Feb-14 328494 Mar-14 339868 342516 350158 345178 386890 490447 967481 [+]
Current Account to GDP 2.10 Dec-13 1.45 Jun-14 2.3 2.45 2.57 2.17 2.85 0.27 0.05 [+]
Capital Flows -45288.00 Nov-13 -18005 Mar-14 -18005 -4552 -16213 -19993 -19388 -10561 -5520 [+]
Terms of Trade 100.00 Jan-14 100 Feb-14 101 101 100 100 100 100 100 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1784015.00 Feb-14 1777297 Mar-14 1777297 1723944 1678805 1905817 1889028 1897312 1897349 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Government Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Government Budget 3.20 Dec-12 3.17 Dec-13 3.18 3.25 3.32 3.37 3.4 2.84 2.84 [+]
Government Debt To GDP 33.10 Dec-12 32.36 Dec-13 32.61 32.56 32.52 32.48 32.4 32.34 32.34 [+]
Government Budget Value 75862.00 Nov-13 24732 Mar-14 24732 -2930 -7411 15689 15309 15326 15326 [+]
Government Spending 45234.00 Nov-13 45843 Mar-14 45843 45141 45168 45887 51609 65260 128742 [+]
Credit Rating 95.39 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Business Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Industrial Production 0.50 Dec-13 -0.24 Mar-14 -0.33 -0.69 -0.69 -0.47 0.24 3.77 4.03 [+]
Bankruptcies 5393.00 Jan-14 5066 Feb-14 4846 4553 4419 4853 4874 2629 1374 [+]
Business Confidence 6.00 Mar-14 15.1 Jun-14 4.24 15.1 18.02 13.51 9.71 20.19 31.36 [+]
Car Registrations 3698.00 Feb-14 3524 Mar-14 3628 3478 3830 3503 3800 4852 9573 [+]
Changes in Inventories 3594.00 Nov-13 815 Mar-14 815 2824 803 -210 378 40.32 105 [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 49.90 Mar-14 49.5 Apr-14 51.01 50.91 50.84 50.85 50.85 50.88 50.88 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Consumer Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Retail Sales YoY -2.30 Feb-14 3.95 Feb-14 14.34 16.5 6.16 8.31 9.9 4.07 4.16 [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.00 Mar-14 5 Apr-14 4.98 5.08 5.09 5.06 5.04 5.02 5.02 [+]
Consumer Spending 347476.00 Nov-13 336212 Mar-14 336212 331901 334920 337560 379513 479345 945597 [+]
Personal Savings 0.01 Mar-14 0.09 Apr-14 0.01 0.14 0.1 0.08 0.07 0.05 0.05 [+]
Consumer Confidence 105.00 Dec-13 112 Mar-14 112 116 116 112 105 200 289 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Taxes Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Corporate Tax Rate 16.50 Jan-14 17 Jun-14 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 Jan-14 15 Jun-14 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Housing Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Housing Index 15578.00 Feb-14 18880 Mar-14 18880 18328 15167 14602 14108 14254 14266 [+]

Trading Economics forecasts are driven by our own analysts’ expectations and technically projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. First, we model the past behaviour of a time series by using vast amounts of historical data. Then, we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account, our own analyst’s assessments and future expectations. While we work hard to make our predictions accurate, please note that past performance of our forecast model is not necessarily indicative of future results. Moreover, please take into account that because countries publish their data releases in different dates and sometimes with significant delays we may have to project past data which has already some time but was not yet released by official sources. If you have any question please email us at contact@tradingeconomics.com



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Hong Kong Trade Deficit Widens 58% YoY in February  
Hong Kong’s trade deficit increased sharply to HKD 53.7 billion in February of 2014 as exports fell by an annual 1.3 percent. Yet, taking January and February as a whole to neutralize the distortion caused by the difference in timing of the Lunar New Year holidays, export performance in the first two months of 2014 was rather sluggish.
Hong Kong Inflation Rate Slows to 9-Month Low  
In February of 2014, Hong Kong’s inflation rate eased to 3.9 percent, down from 4.6 percent in the previous month. The smaller increase was mainly due to the difference in the timing of the Lunar New Year, which fell in late January and early February this year but in mid-February last year, resulting in smaller increase in prices for package tours and meals bought away from home. Cost of private housing rentals also slowed.
Hong Kong Unemployment Rate Stable at 3.1%  
In the period December of 2013 - February of 2014, Hong Kong jobless rate remained unchanged at a 16-year low 3.1 percent. Total employment declined from its historic high, as business activities returned to a more normal level after its peak in Lunar New Year.
Hong Kong Economy Advances 1.1% QoQ in Q4  
In the fourth quarter of 2013, Hong Kong’s GDP expanded at its fastest pace in the last four quarters at 1.1 percent on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis
Hong Kong GDP Growth Accelerates in Q4  
In the fourth quarter of 2013, Hong Kong's economy expanded at a faster 3 percent over a year earlier, up from a downward revised 2.8 percent in the previous three-month period. In 2014, the economy is expected to grow between 3 to 4 percent, better than a 2.9 percent expansion in 2013.
Hong Kong Trade Deficit Narrows Sharply in January  
In January of 2014, Hong Kong’s trade deficit decreased 63 percent over a month earlier to HKD 19.8 billion, due to a fall in imports. A year earlier the trade deficit reached HKD 27.5 billion, as the Chinese New Year fell in late January and early February in 2014 but in mid-February in 2013.
Hong Kong Inflation Rate Accelerates in January  
In January of 2014, Hong Kong’s annual inflation rate rose 4.6 percent, the highest rate in the last four months, due mainly to the difference in timing of the Lunar New Year, which fell in late January and early February this year, but in mid-February last year.
Hong Kong Unemployment Rate Edges Down in January  
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased from 3.2 percent in October - December 2013 to 3.1 percent in November 2013 - January 2014. It is the lowest jobless rate in almost 16 years, as total employment hit a fresh new high due to the Lunar New Year, while the number of unemployed persons declined for the fifth consecutive month.
Hong Kong Trade Deficit Widens in December  
In December of 2013, Hong Kong trade deficit increased to HKD 54.4 billion, as exports were unchanged from a year earlier and imports rose 1.8 percent. For 2013 as a whole, a visible trade deficit of HKD 501.0 billion, equivalent to 12.3 percent of the value of imports of goods was recorded.
Hong Kong Inflation Rate Unchanged in December  
In December of 2013, Hong Kong annual inflation rate remained unchanged at 4.3 percent for the second straight month. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the underlying inflation rate was 3.9 percent, slightly lower than 4 percent in November, mainly due to small price increases of fresh vegetables.
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Chile Leaves Monetary Policy Unchanged  
At its April 17th, 2014 meeting, Central Bank of Chile left the benchmark interest rate on hold at 4 percent, following last month's cut, citing low output and demand, but hinted possible future rate cuts, depending on domestic and external conditions.
Russia Unemployment Drops in March  
Russian jobless rate fell for the first time in four months to 5.4 percent, after remaining stable at 5.6 percent in the previous two months.
Canada Inflation Rises Above Forecasts in March  
The annual consumer prices in Canada accelerated to 1.5 percent in March of 2014 following a 1.1 increase in the previous month, as energy prices surged.
US Jobless Claims Rise Slightly  
In the week ending April 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 304,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 300,000 to 302,000. There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.
Brazil Unemployment Rate Down to 5%  
In March of 2014, Brazil’s jobless rate fell by 0.1 percentage point to 5 percent, below market forecasts. A year earlier, unemployment reached 5.7 percent.
Dutch Unemployment Rate Falls for the First Time in 2014  
In March of 2014, Netherlands’ seasonally adjusted jobless rate fell to 8.7 percent from 8.8 percent in the previous month and 8.1 percent a year earlier, as more people left permanently the labor market rather than found jobs.
Singaporean Trade Surplus Narrows Sharply in March  
The trade surplus decreased 51.1 percent in March of 2014 over a year earlier and 47.2 percent from February to SGD 2.3 billion. Imports rose at a faster pace than exports, as sales of pharmaceuticals and electronics fell, while shipments of petrochemicals and re-exports contributed to overall increase.
Mozambique Leaves Lending Rate Steady at 8.25%  
At its April 16th, 2014 meeting, Bank of Mozambique left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.25 percent for the sixth consecutive meeting, saying this was consistent with meeting domestic economic targets for 2014.
Spanish Trade Deficit Narrows to 4-Month Low  
In February of 2014, Spanish trade gap decreased to € 1.62 billion, down from € 2.82 billion in the previous month. Compared with the same month a year earlier, the trade deficit widened 37 percent.
Angolan Inflation Rate Down To 7.32% in March  
The annual consumer prices in Angola decelerated for the second consecutive month to 7.32 percent in March of 2014, from 7.48 percent recorded in February of 2014.
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This page includes economic forecasts for Hong Kong. 4/18/2014