Hong Kong | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.60 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.7 1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.40 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 4.30 2.5 3 2.9 2.7 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.75 1 1 1.25 1.25 4.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -32096.00 -36555 -35761 -35500 -35424 -35404 HKD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 32.00 32.12 32.21 32.29 32.38 32.7 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Currency 7.75 7.91 7.98 8.06 7.75 9.3 [+]
Stock Market 23297.00 22500 22300 22100 23500 18400 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 0.99 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.09 1.14 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.60 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.7 1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.70 2.4 2.7 2 2.4 3.2 percent [+]
GDP 309.93 306 310 310 310 366 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 559887.00 625483 580411 573592 618606 695549 HKD Million [+]
Gross National Product 602539.00 634916 603449 605483 637618 700118 HKD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 127413.00 139139 120093 135107 123981 145046 HKD Million [+]
GDP per capita 36117.10 36090 36100 36100 36100 37120 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 53379.74 53300 53250 53250 53250 55560 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 400.00 304 272 289 285 248 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 25315.00 25337 25117 25442 25357 26053 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 6836.00 6974 6377 6817 7112 6913 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 102175.00 101097 98011 104660 103797 108310 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Services 503254.00 506941 507493 507317 507373 507359 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Transport 31831.00 35473 34784 34879 34965 36529 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 9406.00 8232 8116 9466 10181 8264 HKD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.40 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 4 percent [+]
Employed Persons 3816.80 3817 3821 3823 3825 3836 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 141.20 143 144 144 144 144 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.30 61.23 61.24 61.24 61.24 61.24 percent [+]
Labour Costs 154.60 141 157 139 137 146 Index Points [+]
Productivity 155.20 157 158 159 160 167 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 68199.00 65802 65860 64960 64906 63717 [+]
Wages 15055.00 15329 15366 15423 15464 15761 HKD/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 203.60 205 206 208 209 230 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 32.50 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 37 HKD/Hour [+]
Population 7.30 7.33 7.34 7.35 7.36 7.47 Million [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 7.10 6.6 6.68 6.69 6.68 6.68 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Inflation Rate 4.30 2.5 3 2.9 2.7 3.8 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 102.80 103 104 104 105 109 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 104.80 106 106 106 107 110 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 106.60 107 107 107 108 108 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 98.10 97.47 97.12 96.82 96.55 94.96 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 98.70 99.45 99.74 99.93 100 100 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 102.70 102 102 102 102 102 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.70 2.13 1.86 1.67 1.54 1.21 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.16 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.16 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change -2.80 -1.27 -1.41 -2.03 -2.26 -1.85 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.75 1 1 1.25 1.25 4.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.59 0.57 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 369462.00 379667 387857 396222 404766 533948 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 2150641.00 2235630 2297913 2364310 2434100 3590450 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 12127442.00 12293604 12495337 12711150 12938707 16579777 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 12170313.00 12186813 12173492 12160170 12146903 11979405 HKD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 362700.00 366893 369980 372941 375782 403759 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 19550476.00 19530242 19506696 19483262 19459938 19166527 HKD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 7733894.00 7826934 7887556 7942379 7991750 8323449 HKD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Balance of Trade -32096.00 -36555 -35761 -35500 -35424 -35404 HKD Million [+]
Exports 309670.00 295478 295121 296257 296293 296163 HKD Million [+]
Imports 341766.00 331326 331220 331460 331473 331465 HKD Million [+]
Current Account 14937.00 29000 29000 29000 22617 26300 HKD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 3.10 4.13 4 3.88 3.75 4.3 percent [+]
Terms of Trade 99.40 99.32 99.51 99.66 99.76 99.99 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 8918.00 -25348 -8484 1176 -16891 -12552 HKD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 2274115.00 2216516 2103394 2194493 2100713 2196098 [+]
Gold Reserves 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 Tonnes [+]
External Debt 9928749.00 9892092 9896893 9902273 9907634 9917654 HKD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 12844.17 13141 13283 13425 13567 15549 HKD Billion [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 32.00 32.12 32.21 32.29 32.38 32.7 percent [+]
Government Budget 1.30 0.33 0.53 0.73 0.93 0.75 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -27315.00 59920 20574 -25993 -22797 32138 HKD Million [+]
Government Spending 54684.00 57143 61102 56531 58500 62419 HKD Million [+]
Government Revenues 59827.00 148192 116244 59872 64874 128760 HKD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 87142.00 88185 93313 88594 92596 90496 HKD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Business Confidence -6.00 -12 -12 -12 -8.39 -6.62 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 49.00 49 48.7 49.4 47.56 51.8 [+]
Industrial Production -0.50 0.5 -0.2 0.8 0.4 3.4 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 253.00 -1054 -1191 -471 -1622 -1181 HKD Million [+]
Bankruptcies 7457.00 7531 7514 7314 7223 7202 Companies [+]
Car Registrations 2716.00 2823 2832 2834 2835 2836 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.48 5.46 5.46 5.46 5.46 5.48 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 9.00 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.73 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 5.00 4 3.91 3.83 3.75 3.5 [+]
Corruption Index 75.00 73.68 73.66 73.64 73.62 75.91 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 18.00 18 18 18 18 14 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 87.00 89.11 87.48 87.67 87.73 87.8 [+]
Retail Sales YoY -12.70 -2.1 1.8 2.6 3 4.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 401872.00 416225 405394 427241 413584 493736 HKD Million [+]
Personal Savings 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 66.60 66.25 66.14 66.05 65.97 65.72 percent of GDP [+]
Retail Sales Mom 3.30 0.72 0.78 0.72 0.65 0.68 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Housing Index 128.57 131 131 131 131 131 Index points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 50.40 49.94 49.84 49.74 49.63 48.48 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 16.50 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Hong Kong including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Hong Kong economy. 10/1/2016