Hong Kong | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.40 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.94 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.40 3.41 3.42 3.42 3.42 3.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.70 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.87 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.5 4.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -31027.00 -39396 -36924 -36390 -36315 -36360 HKD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 32.00 32.52 32.09 31.65 31.57 31.62 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Currency 7.77 7.91 7.98 8.06 8.14 4.65 [+]
Stock Market 20812.00 21000 20400 19700 19300 26800 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.33 1.31 1.34 1.41 1.47 1.92 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.40 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.94 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.80 0.7 0.9 1 1.2 3.2 percent [+]
GDP 290.90 297 302 307 308 301 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 564788.00 559417 603620 631739 587802 705009 HKD Million [+]
Gross National Product 632218.00 588349 623734 637324 610437 700832 HKD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 113396.00 134098 124740 139278 128469 149571 HKD Million [+]
GDP per capita 34222.29 34422 34468 34515 34678 36798 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 52551.60 52841 52949 53058 53275 55945 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 354.00 388 328 346 341 284 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 25408.00 24861 24643 25686 25789 26434 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 7013.00 6825 7127 6968 6350 6900 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 98677.00 101746 101577 101024 98508 107857 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Services 560996.00 563564 563861 563776 563801 563795 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Transport 35028.00 32327 35189 34216 34319 36587 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 8219.00 9421 10206 8218 7975 8206 HKD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.40 3.41 3.42 3.42 3.42 3.2 percent [+]
Employed Persons 3806.60 3808 3814 3815 3817 3830 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 134.20 135 137 137 137 137 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.20 61.05 61.15 61.13 61.13 61.13 percent [+]
Labour Costs 137.40 134 133 140 153 143 Index Points [+]
Productivity 153.00 153 154 154 155 180 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 71241.00 73326 72326 74309 70766 72729 [+]
Wages 15126.00 15313 15390 15489 15560 16133 HKD/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 199.10 205 206 208 209 230 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 32.50 33.63 33.56 33.41 33.19 37 HKD/Hour [+]
Population 7.30 7.28 7.3 7.32 7.33 7.4 Million [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 62.5 63.75 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 62.5 63.75 65 65 65 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 5.50 5.38 5.36 5.38 5.37 5.37 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Inflation Rate 2.70 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.87 3.8 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 102.40 103 104 104 105 112 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 104.50 105 106 106 106 111 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 102.40 102 101 101 100 98.91 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 97.70 96.79 95.81 94.98 94.26 90.26 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 97.40 96.22 95.44 94.85 94.41 93 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 100.80 92.59 93.09 95.1 94.82 94.7 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 3.80 4.09 3.87 3.69 3.58 3.24 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.97 0.55 0.21 0.24 0.25 0.24 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change -3.20 -0.72 0.06 0.54 0.77 0.86 Index points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.5 4.75 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.53 0.48 0.49 0.5 0.5 0.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 363543.00 375905 384523 393336 402348 564885 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 2076634.00 2075794 2136471 2200648 2267799 3591406 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 11747635.00 11917777 12120118 12333729 12557338 16778580 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 11783190.00 11788313 11774787 11761212 11747698 11552302 HKD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 360800.00 363363 367155 370870 374446 414271 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 19187722.00 19197140 19168620 19139995 19111537 18704131 HKD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 7522375.00 7516685 7518827 7520539 7521950 7531310 HKD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Balance of Trade -31027.00 -39396 -36924 -36390 -36315 -36360 HKD Million [+]
Exports 285274.00 305076 296600 291245 291948 292415 HKD Million [+]
Imports 316301.00 325523 321765 320750 320713 320728 HKD Million [+]
Current Account 26535.00 -3089 27850 17991 18368 18275 HKD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 3.10 2.07 2.89 3.7 3.69 4.35 percent [+]
Terms of Trade 100.30 100 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -55646.00 -14623 -44152 -29470 -32679 -31857 HKD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 2055743.00 2048188 1950481 2055887 1953722 2054092 [+]
Gold Reserves 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 Tonnes [+]
External Debt 10104981.00 10016915 9987550 9965005 9947696 9891562 HKD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 11602.90 11527 11807 12087 12208 14507 HKD Billion [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 32.00 32.52 32.09 31.65 31.57 31.62 percent [+]
Government Budget 2.80 1.5 1.66 1.83 1.28 1.16 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 72751.00 -17421 -34608 37211 17831 13649 HKD Million [+]
Government Spending 59769.00 54957 56942 57231 61106 62815 HKD Million [+]
Government Revenues 156587.00 61890 57039 149150 126308 131395 HKD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 83836.00 84236 88624 84776 87848 86375 HKD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Business Confidence -4.00 -14 -14 -12 -1.09 0.25 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 45.30 42.8 43.6 44.7 44.2 45.7 [+]
Industrial Production -1.10 -1.68 -1.75 -1.68 -1.6 -1.57 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -657.00 -3727 -5549 -2675 -2042 -3124 HKD Million [+]
Bankruptcies 8316.00 7955 7631 7983 7825 7845 Companies [+]
Car Registrations 2859.00 2917 2968 2981 2984 2985 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.46 5.42 5.42 5.42 5.39 5.28 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 7.00 7 7 7 7 11 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 [+]
Corruption Index 75.00 75 75 76 76 77 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 18.00 18 18 18 18 14 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 99.00 103 101 102 102 102 [+]
Retail Sales YoY -7.60 -12.5 -5.3 -3.1 2.6 4.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 388007.00 417197 403045 426679 415519 510892 HKD Million [+]
Personal Savings 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 67.00 68.16 68.38 68.58 68.78 69.69 percent of GDP [+]
Retail Sales Mom -6.00 2.6 0.85 0.5 0.89 0.71 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Housing Index 125.42 123 122 121 121 121 Index points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 51.00 50.41 50.38 50.35 50.17 46.93 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 16.50 16.52 16.52 16.52 16.52 16.61 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15.07 15.07 15.07 15.09 15 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Hong Kong including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Hong Kong economy. 6/1/2016