Italy | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 11.60 11.4 10.7 11.2 11.1 8.9 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.10 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 3669.89 6500 5800 4600 4649 2900 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 132.70 131 129 129 134 122 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Currency 1.07 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.02 0.85 [+]
Stock Market 17086.85 16300 16200 16000 15800 13200 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.90 2.11 2.13 2.15 2.17 2.51 percent [+]
6 Month Bill Yield -0.19 -0.2 -0.2 -0.21 -0.21 -0.24 percent [+]
7 Year Note Yield 1.51 1.27 1.29 1.3 1.31 1.51 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.00 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.6 percent [+]
GDP 1814.76 1860 1890 1910 1732 2240 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 392144.00 391400 392100 392700 391493 404000 EUR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 65680.33 66680 67052 67383 67674 69600 EUR Million [+]
GDP per capita 33704.69 34100 34200 34300 32884 36000 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 33587.12 33700 33800 33900 33588 35500 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 7277.30 7186 7200 7176 7167 7340 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 16160.70 16153 16200 16200 16144 17700 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 65673.70 67300 67500 67700 67900 69200 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Services 263122.00 263913 264000 264000 264498 272000 EUR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 11.60 11.4 10.7 11.2 11.1 8.9 percent [+]
Employed Persons 22752.92 22840 22910 22950 22767 24100 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 2989.25 2880 2850 2790 3005 2610 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 34549.53 36400 36800 37400 35319 43000 Hundreds Person [+]
Full Time Employment 139145.24 137000 138000 141000 141744 147000 Hundreds Person [+]
Employment Rate 57.46 57.6 57.4 57.5 57.66 59 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.30 64.2 64.4 64.6 64.8 66.3 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 6.80 6.2 6 5.8 6.05 4.3 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 37.10 38.1 37.6 37.2 36.97 34.9 percent [+]
Productivity 110.69 112 113 114 112 121 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 110.69 110 110 110 110 117 Index Points [+]
Wages 2167.84 2340 2340 2340 2370 2420 EUR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 111.80 114 115 116 118 128 Index Points [+]
Wage Growth 0.60 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.6 2.5 percent [+]
Population 60.80 61.72 61.78 61.86 61.29 62.5 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 63.80 63.8 63.93 63.93 63.8 64.98 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.30 66.3 66.35 66.35 66.3 66.78 [+]
Employment Change 0.50 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 2.1 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 2130.00 2150 2170 2170 2190 2380 EUR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 991.00 1000 1020 1020 1050 1220 EUR/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1250.00 1390 1400 1400 1189 1480 EUR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 2370.00 2380 2400 2400 2415 2560 EUR/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Inflation Rate 0.10 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10 0.2 0.4 0.2 0 0.7 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 100.90 102 103 104 100 121 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 99.90 104 105 106 99.92 124 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 100.60 103 104 106 99.78 126 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.40 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.31 2.3 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 106.77 108 108 108 109 116 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 101.70 104 105 106 102 121 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change -0.60 -1.1 -0.2 0.1 0.02 1.8 percent [+]
Export Prices 117.10 118 119 119 120 128 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 102.10 102 103 103 102 115 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.00 0.9 0.8 1 -0.08 2.5 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 98.80 101 102 103 98.58 118 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.31 -0.39 -0.25 -0.14 -0.08 1.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 990787.00 1080000 1220000 1290000 1065762 2160000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1395990.00 1540000 1650000 1740000 1399482 2410000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 1412018.00 1590000 1680000 1770000 1477319 2450000 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 3930265.27 4150000 4260000 4340000 3775007 5140000 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 133881.30 136571 137558 138311 138887 140717 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 783363.00 814000 821000 829000 773441 901000 EUR Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 763099.60 778000 802000 832000 853992 992000 EUR Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 176.47 174 174 173 173 168 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Balance of Trade 3669.89 6500 5800 4600 4649 2900 EUR Million [+]
Exports 35862.59 34600 37300 36500 35700 35400 EUR Million [+]
Imports 32192.70 28100 31500 31900 32800 32500 EUR Million [+]
Current Account 2810.00 4990 3650 1870 1560 -1510 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 2.20 2.4 1.7 1.7 1.46 -0.9 percent [+]
External Debt 858737.00 899000 903000 906000 908000 940000 EUR Million [+]
Terms of Trade 114.70 112 112 112 115 119 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 3573.00 5820 -1170 2850 2450 5210 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 159.26 157 155 158 167 160 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 2451.84 2452 2452 2452 2452 2452 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 90.00 100 100 100 92.58 103 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -600.00 -450 1790 2250 780 -470 EUR Million [+]
Terrorism Index 2.36 3.36 3.36 3.36 2.53 3.36 [+]
Weapons Sales 570.00 675 592 510 545 463 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 132.70 131 129 129 134 122 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.60 -2.5 -2 -2 -2.91 -0.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -8.62 -2.1 -1.4 -11.6 -4.86 -1 EUR Billion [+]
Government Spending 78033.72 78600 78700 78800 78014 81900 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 50.50 49.5 49 49 50.58 46 percent [+]
Government Revenues 34.53 104 32.4 50.6 36.8 112 EUR Billion [+]
Government Debt 2212615.50 2278000 2293000 2308000 2266088 2514000 EUR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 43.16 107 33.8 62.2 37.9 113 EUR Billion [+]
Asylum Applications 12350.00 7520 7240 9540 10020 6820 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 28460.00 28880 28125 27370 27101 25665 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Business Confidence 102.00 104 104 104 105 103 [+]
Services PMI 51.00 51.7 52.6 54.4 51.01 53.1 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 52.20 50.5 50.4 50.7 52.37 52.4 [+]
Industrial Production 1.80 0.7 0.9 1 4.55 0.8 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.85 -0.3 0.5 -0.4 0.6 0.2 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.70 0.7 1.5 1.4 2.93 1.6 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 76.10 76.6 76.3 76.5 76.08 78.6 percent [+]
Factory Orders -6.80 -1.5 -0.4 2.8 -2.2 0.4 percent [+]
New Orders 104.80 101 110 111 102 101 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 484.56 397 934 429 915 488 EUR Million [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -4.00 4.6 9.8 12.2 14.5 18.13 [+]
Car Registrations 146632.00 111000 192000 167000 134000 121000 Cars [+]
Bankruptcies 3800.00 4000 3500 3700 2850 3600 Companies [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.50 4.46 4.49 4.49 4.46 4.61 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 44.00 43 42 42 42 39 [+]
Composite Pmi 51.10 52.6 51.14 52.3 52.5 52.5 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 50.00 45 44 44 52.9 41 [+]
Electricity Production 24516.00 22890 22920 23817 24150 23000 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 44.00 44 45 45 50.82 48 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 61.00 61 60 60 73.79 57 [+]
Mining Production 6.80 -5.2 -3.7 -1.2 -1.78 1.1 percent [+]
Steel Production 2133.00 1500 2030 2040 2110 1560 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 107.90 112 115 114 111 107 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.60 0.4 0.3 0.4 -0.04 0.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY -1.40 1.3 1.5 1.4 -0.12 1.2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 235210.79 236000 236000 237000 239299 245000 EUR Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 285893.00 284000 286000 288000 282037 302000 EUR Million [+]
Personal Savings 9.60 8.5 8.4 8.2 8 7.2 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 2.26 2.24 2.26 2.31 2.05 3.25 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 84512.69 90900 95500 99400 86308 166000 EUR Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.65 1.56 1.49 1.52 1.67 1.88 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 42.10 42.18 40.12 40.12 41.23 34.25 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 61.93 61.04 60.96 60.87 60.79 53.12 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Construction Output -1.10 -0.6 -0.1 0.4 0.31 1.9 percent [+]
Housing Index 84.88 91.6 94.6 97.5 99.4 114 Index Points [+]
Construction Pmi 45.90 46.8 48.5 49.5 50.2 52 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 72.90 73.2 73.2 73.2 72.92 73.2 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 31.40 31.4 31.4 31.4 31.4 31.4 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 48.80 48.9 48.9 48.9 48.8 48.9 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 22.00 22 22 22 22 22 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 41.57 42.6 42.6 42.6 41.57 42.6 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 32.08 32.1 32.1 32.1 32.08 32.1 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 9.49 10.5 10.5 10.5 9.49 10.5 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Italy including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Italy economy. 12/4/2016