Italy | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 11.90 11.6 11.2 10.9 10.5 9 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.60 1.9 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -573.67 5800 4600 3285 6500 2900 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 132.70 129 129 134 129 122 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 1.08 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.01 0.84 [+]
Stock Market 20081.56 19200 19000 18800 18400 15500 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.23 2.15 2.17 2.19 2.22 2.56 percent [+]
6 Month Bill Yield -0.29 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.19 -0.38 percent [+]
7 Year Note Yield 1.95 1.19 1.21 1.22 1.08 1.4 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.00 1.1 1.2 1.1 1 1.6 percent [+]
GDP 1821.50 1890 1910 1808 1950 2240 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 393512.08 392100 392700 393898 394000 404000 EUR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 69182.55 69300 69600 69900 70200 71400 EUR Million [+]
GDP per capita 33849.39 34200 34300 33331 34700 36000 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 33731.32 33800 33900 33508 34200 35500 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 6997.90 7103 7117 7125 7220 7340 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 15961.20 16200 16200 15929 16400 17700 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 68123.50 67500 67700 67900 68200 69200 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Services 264307.90 264000 264000 264472 265000 272000 EUR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 11.90 11.6 11.2 10.9 10.5 9 percent [+]
Employed Persons 22855.95 22910 22950 22882 23100 24100 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 3096.71 2850 2790 3111 2720 2610 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 35459.63 36800 37400 35740 38900 43000 Hundreds Person [+]
Full Time Employment 138644.18 138000 141000 141008 143000 147000 Hundreds Person [+]
Employment Rate 57.50 57.4 57.5 57.64 57.9 59 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.47 64.4 64.6 65.06 65 66.3 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 6.30 6 5.8 6.05 5.4 4.3 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 37.90 37.6 37.2 37.83 36.5 34.9 percent [+]
Labour Costs 105.44 110 110 110 112 117 Index Points [+]
Productivity 105.44 113 114 105 115 121 Index Points [+]
Wages 2167.84 2340 2340 2340 2370 2420 EUR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 111.90 115 116 113 120 128 Index Points [+]
Wage Growth 0.50 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.5 percent [+]
Population 60.67 61.78 61.86 61.1 62.02 62.5 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.58 65.58 65.58 65.58 65.58 67 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.58 66.58 66.58 66.58 66.58 67 [+]
Employment Change -0.10 0.3 0.4 0.25 0.8 2.1 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 1185.10 2170 2170 2190 2190 2380 EUR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 940.30 1020 1020 1050 1050 1220 EUR/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1250.00 1400 1400 1189 1400 1480 EUR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 2370.00 2400 2400 2415 2420 2560 EUR/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 1.60 1.9 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40 -0.3 0.2 0.12 0.4 0.7 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 99.60 2 104 101 106 121 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.00 105 106 102 109 124 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 100.60 104 106 101 110 126 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.60 0.8 0.9 0.66 1.2 2.3 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 106.92 108 108 108 109 116 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 103.00 104 105 107 109 121 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.50 1 1.2 1.5 1.6 2.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 121.90 119 119 123 120 128 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 108.20 103 103 110 105 115 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 3.80 0.8 1 5.87 1.3 2.5 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 100.80 102 103 101 106 118 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.33 -0.25 -0.14 -0.08 0.1 1.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 1022705.00 1220000 1290000 1029076 1520000 2160000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1417917.00 1650000 1740000 1424692 2020000 2410000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 1436540.00 1680000 1770000 1463477 2050000 2450000 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 3889890.56 4260000 4340000 3860747 4560000 5140000 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 136192.90 135596 135853 135881 135884 135885 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 776174.00 821000 829000 766618 848000 901000 EUR Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 817977.60 802000 832000 870931 876000 992000 EUR Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 176.47 174 174 173 173 168 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -573.67 5800 4600 3285 6500 2900 EUR Million [+]
Exports 31690.63 37300 36500 35700 34800 35400 EUR Million [+]
Imports 32264.30 31500 31900 32800 28300 32500 EUR Million [+]
Current Account -1913.40 3650 1870 1560 2590 -1510 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 2.20 1.7 1.7 2.05 1.7 -0.9 percent [+]
External Debt 2141267.00 903000 906000 908000 910000 940000 EUR Million [+]
Terms of Trade 112.70 112 112 113 113 119 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -4036.10 -1170 2850 2450 6050 5210 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 160.68 158 160 167 162 162 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 2451.84 2452 2452 2452 2452 2452 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 90.00 100 100 92.58 100 103 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 2014.30 1790 2250 780 -1250 -470 EUR Million [+]
Terrorism Index 2.36 3.36 3.36 2.91 3.36 3.36 [+]
Tourism Revenues 1879.00 1805 3009 2976 2077 2407 EUR Million [+]
Weapons Sales 570.00 675 592 510 545 463 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 132.70 129 129 134 129 122 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.40 -2 -2 -2 -2 -0.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 5.49 -1.4 -11.6 -5.46 -2.3 -1 EUR Billion [+]
Government Spending 78635.41 78700 78800 78800 79000 81900 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 50.50 49 49 50.75 49 46 percent [+]
Government Revenues 38.67 32.4 50.6 36.8 106 112 EUR Billion [+]
Government Debt 2250352.10 2293000 2308000 2274954 2339000 2514000 EUR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 33.18 33.8 62.2 37.9 108 113 EUR Billion [+]
Asylum Applications 11035.00 7240 9540 10020 7400 6820 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 28460.00 28880 28125 27370 27101 25665 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 106.30 106 104 105 104 103 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 55.00 50.4 50.7 52.68 51.9 52.4 [+]
Services PMI 54.10 52.6 54.4 54.01 55.4 53.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production -0.50 0.9 1 1.56 1.4 0.8 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -2.29 0.5 -0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -2.40 1.5 1.4 -0.84 2.2 1.6 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 76.50 76.3 76.5 76.08 77.4 78.6 percent [+]
Factory Orders 2.80 -0.4 2.8 -2.2 -0.5 0.4 percent [+]
New Orders 109.10 110 111 102 101 101 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories -286.24 -200 -166 -163 -210 -188 EUR Million [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index 0.50 9.8 12.2 14.5 19.8 18.13 [+]
Car Registrations 174848.00 192000 167000 134000 115000 121000 Cars [+]
Bankruptcies 3356.00 3500 3700 2850 3900 3600 Companies [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.50 4.49 4.49 4.46 4.49 4.61 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 44.00 42 42 42 42 39 [+]
Composite Pmi 54.80 55.03 52.3 52.5 52.7 52.5 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 50.00 44 44 52.27 44 41 [+]
Electricity Production 27979.00 22920 23817 24150 22920 23000 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 47.00 45 45 48 45 48 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 60.00 60 60 72.04 60 57 [+]
Mining Production -5.90 -3.7 -1.2 -1.82 -0.2 1.1 percent [+]
Steel Production 1825.00 2030 2040 2110 1510 1560 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 106.60 107 114 111 110 107 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 1.40 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY -0.10 1.5 1.4 -0.05 1.7 1.2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 237255.65 236000 237000 237000 237000 245000 EUR Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 286208.00 286000 288000 282037 293000 302000 EUR Million [+]
Personal Savings 9.30 8.4 8.2 8 7.8 7.2 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 2.26 2.26 2.31 2.24 2.44 3.25 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 86589.58 95500 99400 88233 108900 166000 EUR Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.68 1.49 1.52 1.68 1.67 1.88 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 41.70 40.12 40.12 41.27 40.12 34.25 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 61.93 61.72 61.49 61.27 59.76 53.12 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Construction Output -2.30 -0.1 0.4 -2.8 0.9 1.9 percent [+]
Housing Index 85.51 94.6 97.5 99.4 102 114 Index Points [+]
Construction Pmi 49.90 48.5 49.5 50.2 50.5 52 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 72.90 73.2 73.2 72.94 73.2 73.2 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 31.40 31.4 31.4 31.4 31.4 31.4 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 48.80 48.9 48.9 48.8 48.9 48.9 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 22.00 22 22 22 22 22 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 41.57 42.6 42.6 41.57 42.6 42.6 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 32.08 32.1 32.1 32.08 32.1 32.1 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 9.49 10.5 10.5 9.49 10.5 10.5 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Italy including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Italy economy. 3/23/2017