Peru | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Peru including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Peru economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 7.70 6.6 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.97 3.2 3 2.9 2.8 3.1 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.25 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.25 4 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 741.00 1100 1250 1400 1590 550 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 23.00 22.7 23.15 23.6 23.74 24.17 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 3.25 3.28 3.32 3.41 3.38 3.9 [+]
Stock Market 15654.90 15600 15400 15000 15100 12600 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 5.76 5.83 5.89 5.94 6 6.92 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.00 2 4 3.5 3.9 4.1 percent [+]
GDP 189.11 192 192 192 177 211 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 131813.84 127364 127605 132504 122543 132171 PEN Million [+]
Gross National Product 293760.41 298180 302663 307146 310333 392170 PEN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 32061.53 32053 29478 32044 29487 31991 PEN Million [+]
GDP per capita 5934.55 6220 6220 6220 5914 6700 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 11767.52 12300 12300 12300 11956 15000 USD [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 7.70 6.6 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.1 percent [+]
Employed Persons 4804.39 4789 4794 4795 4795 4795 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 361.29 445 443 445 448 350 Thousand [+]
Wages 1712.83 1736 1755 1772 1787 1944 PEN/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 850.00 858 865 872 880 961 PEN/Month [+]
Population 31.49 31.32 31.4 31.48 31.48 32.83 Million [+]
Living Wage Family 1210.40 1275 1276 1276 1276 1276 PEN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 849.20 835 833 832 832 831 PEN/Month [+]
Employment Rate 63.50 64.15 64.5 63.9 64 65 percent [+]
Wages High Skilled 3870.00 3780 3780 3780 3780 3780 PEN/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1350.00 1350 1350 1350 1350 1350 PEN/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.97 3.2 3 2.9 2.8 3.1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 128.06 127 127 128 128 134 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 128.47 130 131 133 134 149 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 3.33 3.85 3.6 3.15 3.2 4.25 percent [+]
Producer Prices 105.90 107 107 107 106 111 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 113.66 117 118 118 118 118 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 116.90 119 118 118 118 118 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.37 0.37 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.5 percent [+]
Food Inflation 5.63 6.3 6.47 6.51 6.52 6.52 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 111.72 111 111 112 112 112 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 4.25 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.25 4 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 5.20 5.27 4.95 4.95 5.5 4.8 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 41769.00 41743 41801 41923 41893 41875 PEN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 74476.00 75789 76716 77700 78658 88517 PEN Million [+]
Money Supply M2 165282.00 164947 164825 164813 164812 164810 PEN Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 62605.00 62874 63046 63189 63320 64342 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 170330.68 167752 167543 167594 167585 167586 PEN Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 2.29 2.32 2.31 2.3 2.31 2.31 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 741.00 1100 1250 1400 1590 550 USD Million [+]
Exports 3583.00 4400 4450 4470 4490 4580 USD Million [+]
Imports 2842.00 3300 3200 3070 2900 3200 USD Million [+]
Current Account 156.85 -400 -250 -190 200 -650 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.80 -3.1 -3.1 -3.1 -1.6 -1.2 percent [+]
External Debt 74651.00 77764 78306 79506 80099 82124 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 97.23 97.8 98.07 98.2 98.25 98.29 Index Points [+]
Remittances 746.98 747 759 766 733 787 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 4575753.00 4663304 4760022 4856740 4925834 5672348 [+]
Gold Reserves 34.68 34.68 34.68 34.68 34.68 34.68 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 1964.00 1968 2026 2032 2053 2089 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 38.29 37.26 37.24 37.24 37.24 37.24 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 2.98 3.17 3.09 3.01 3.01 3.11 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 23.00 22.7 23.15 23.6 23.74 24.17 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.60 -2.17 -1.69 -2.6 -1.65 -1.76 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -900.97 -1565 -1412 -1709 -1693 -1671 PEN Million [+]
Government Spending 17608.91 16015 16264 17606 16914 19041 PEN Million [+]
Government Revenues 8970.50 8942 8969 8961 8962 8964 PEN Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 7546.60 7880 7847 7882 7875 7875 PEN Million [+]
Military Expenditure 3303.20 3154 3297 3440 3432 3413 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 44.00 42.41 46.13 50.27 52.67 52.44 [+]
Industrial Production 1.00 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 32.08 33.63 33.6 33.62 33.61 33.62 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -1572.42 2392 -110 -1103 1197 -224 PEN Million [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.74 4.1 4.2 4.4 2.12 3.1 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 54.00 55 54 54 53 44 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.23 4.19 4.19 4.19 4.21 4.19 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 67.00 71 71 71 64 63 [+]
Copper Production 178282.57 212690 214900 216000 218000 220000 Tonnes [+]
Corruption Index 35.00 35 35 35 35 36 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 101.00 99 104 108 109 120 [+]
Steel Production 55.00 83.56 86.16 86.98 87.2 87.29 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 87.00 84.14 83.57 86.98 83.24 83.18 [+]
Consumer Spending 79191.46 80595 81734 80565 80185 81310 PEN Million [+]
Consumer Credit 58391.24 60196 61477 62734 63970 76251 PEN Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 302268.70 306367 309099 311768 314365 338764 PEN Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 0.52 0.51 0.49 0.49 0.48 0.38 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.86 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.89 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00 28.58 28.67 28.75 28.94 29.84 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]