Peru | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Peru including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Peru economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 6.80 6.6 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.69 3.2 3 2.9 2.8 3.1 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.00 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.25 4 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 75.70 1100 1250 1400 1590 550 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 23.00 22.7 23.15 23.6 23.74 24.17 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 3.27 3.28 3.32 3.41 3.38 3.9 [+]
Stock Market 16014.94 15600 15400 15000 15100 12600 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 5.59 5.83 5.89 5.94 6 6.92 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.10 2 4 3.5 3.9 4.1 percent [+]
GDP 189.11 192 192 192 177 211 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 120143.06 126400 126829 131799 121226 130990 PEN Million [+]
Gross National Product 293760.41 298180 302663 307146 310333 392170 PEN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 24815.67 27790 24825 27781 24834 27728 PEN Million [+]
GDP per capita 5934.55 6220 6220 6220 5914 6700 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 11767.52 12300 12300 12300 11956 15000 USD [+]
Gdp From Agriculture 5725.00 6188 6214 6209 6210 6210 PEN Million [+]
Gdp From Construction 7971.00 7548 7548 7548 7548 7548 PEN Million [+]
Gdp From Manufacturing 17340.00 17308 16853 17311 16856 17297 PEN Million [+]
Gdp From Mining 17720.00 18349 18390 18646 18519 19593 PEN Million [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 7089.00 6666 6652 6649 6649 6648 PEN Million [+]
Gdp From Services 14394.00 14369 14344 14351 14351 14350 PEN Million [+]
Gdp From Transport 6699.00 6739 6799 6786 6852 6862 PEN Million [+]
Gdp From Utilities 2351.00 2391 2387 2444 2488 2622 PEN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.80 6.6 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.1 percent [+]
Employed Persons 4831.50 4806 4818 4816 4815 4815 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 353.60 445 443 445 448 350 Thousand [+]
Wages 1712.83 1736 1755 1772 1787 1944 PEN/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 850.00 858 865 872 880 961 PEN/Month [+]
Population 31.49 31.32 31.4 31.48 31.48 32.83 Million [+]
Living Wage Family 1210.40 1275 1276 1276 1276 1276 PEN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 849.20 835 833 832 832 831 PEN/Month [+]
Employment Rate 63.50 64.15 64.5 63.9 64 65 percent [+]
Wages High Skilled 3870.00 3780 3780 3780 3780 3780 PEN/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1350.00 1350 1350 1350 1350 1350 PEN/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.69 3.2 3 2.9 2.8 3.1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 127.74 127 127 128 128 134 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 128.69 129 131 132 133 145 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 3.31 3.85 3.6 3.15 3.2 4.25 percent [+]
Producer Prices 105.63 105 105 106 106 108 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 114.57 116 117 117 117 117 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 116.05 115 115 114 115 115 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.26 0.37 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.5 percent [+]
Food Inflation 4.55 4.55 4.55 4.56 4.56 4.56 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 123.20 124 125 126 127 138 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 112.12 112 112 112 112 112 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 4.00 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.25 4 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 5.06 5.27 4.95 4.95 5.5 4.8 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 41850.00 41948 42065 42100 42036 42047 PEN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 73560.00 74323 74800 75611 76346 83874 PEN Million [+]
Money Supply M2 165885.00 166128 166268 166298 166312 166315 PEN Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 63106.00 63389 63720 63949 64146 65668 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 171325.76 169829 170077 170021 170024 170024 PEN Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 2.29 2.32 2.31 2.3 2.31 2.31 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 75.70 1100 1250 1400 1590 550 USD Million [+]
Exports 3260.00 4400 4450 4470 4490 4580 USD Million [+]
Imports 3184.30 3300 3200 3070 2900 3200 USD Million [+]
Current Account -960.82 -400 -250 -190 200 -650 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.80 -3.1 -3.1 -3.1 -1.6 -1.2 percent [+]
External Debt 75045.00 75807 76012 77049 77266 78522 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 98.72 99.4 99.97 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Remittances 705.92 744 757 763 729 782 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 4575753.00 4663304 4760022 4856740 4925834 5672348 [+]
Gold Reserves 34.68 34.68 34.68 34.68 34.68 34.68 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 2051.00 1741 1754 1763 1803 1780 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 38.29 37.26 37.24 37.24 37.24 37.24 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 2.98 3.17 3.09 3.01 3.01 3.11 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 23.00 22.7 23.15 23.6 23.74 24.17 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.60 -2.17 -1.69 -2.6 -1.65 -1.76 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 253.53 -1447 -1251 -1598 -1644 -1600 PEN Million [+]
Government Spending 12030.23 14412 14667 15872 12579 14410 PEN Million [+]
Government Revenues 10404.80 8979 9249 9253 9220 9223 PEN Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 7009.20 7835 7652 7805 7762 7770 PEN Million [+]
Military Expenditure 3303.20 3154 3297 3440 3432 3413 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 44.00 42.41 46.13 50.27 52.67 52.44 [+]
Industrial Production 1.00 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 32.08 33.63 33.6 33.62 33.61 33.62 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 926.48 2331 -150 -1127 861 -290 PEN Million [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.71 4.1 4.2 4.4 -0.08 3.1 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 54.00 55 54 54 53 44 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.23 4.19 4.19 4.19 4.21 4.19 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 67.00 71 71 71 64 63 [+]
Copper Production 178282.57 212690 214900 216000 218000 220000 Tonnes [+]
Corruption Index 35.00 35 35 35 35 36 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 101.00 99 104 108 109 120 [+]
Steel Production 105.00 94.43 94.33 93.96 93.88 93.85 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 101.00 96.65 98.04 86.98 98.56 98.53 [+]
Consumer Spending 79210.83 81066 82156 80943 80820 81937 PEN Million [+]
Consumer Credit 58635.87 59302 60218 61120 62002 70552 PEN Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 304720.00 306999 309885 312790 315615 342346 PEN Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 0.53 0.54 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.5 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00 28.58 28.67 28.75 28.94 29.84 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]