Poland | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.60 0.9 0.8 1 0.9 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 8.50 8.1 7.6 8 8.5 7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.00 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -537.00 100 400 170 200 550 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 54.40 51.4 51.4 51.4 49.4 45.1 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 3.92 4.01 4.05 4.17 4.13 4.76 [+]
Stock Market 59285.57 57700 57200 55400 56000 46700 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.29 3.41 3.45 3.48 3.52 4.06 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.60 0.9 0.8 1 0.9 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.50 3.3 3.1 3.2 3 2.4 percent [+]
GDP 477.07 508 508 508 528 564 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 523561.80 546000 557000 566000 572000 625000 PLN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 131598.60 79200 86400 146000 90111 154000 PLN Million [+]
GDP per capita 14650.12 15500 15600 15700 15800 17200 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 24951.81 25900 26000 26100 26200 28300 USD [+]
Gdp From Agriculture 11220.40 10836 9984 11216 10814 10971 PLN Million [+]
Gdp From Construction 37823.20 30440 30239 30270 30265 30266 PLN Million [+]
Gdp From Manufacturing 101408.60 85488 85219 85182 85177 85176 PLN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 8.50 8.1 7.6 8 8.5 7 percent [+]
Employed Persons 16325.00 16400 16500 16600 16700 17600 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 1325.67 1300 1290 1290 1280 1120 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.00 2 2 1.8 1.8 1.5 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 14.50 14 13.8 13.6 13.4 12 percent [+]
Productivity 130.90 109 106 134 108 146 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 106.50 104 108 99.5 106 106 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 94.10 95.6 98.4 55.6 97.99 65.8 Thousand [+]
Wages 4065.52 4170 4200 4240 4260 4520 PLN/Month [+]
Wage Growth 5.20 4.8 4.6 4.4 4 2.5 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 4052.34 4210 4240 4270 4280 4540 PLN/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 453.48 453 453 453 470 500 EUR/Month [+]
Population 38.42 38.32 38.32 38.31 38.3 38.14 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.58 60.58 60.58 60 60.41 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.58 65.58 65.58 65 65.41 65 [+]
Employment Change 4.50 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.4 3.2 percent [+]
Employment Rate 64.90 65 65.1 65.1 65.2 68 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 14959.80 15400 15600 15700 15800 17100 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 1054.20 1180 1200 1220 1230 1490 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 56.30 56.4 56.5 56.6 56.7 59 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 2796.60 4590 4620 4620 3045 4790 PLN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 2466.80 2660 2710 2710 2477 2940 PLN/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 2040.00 2225 2270 2270 2275 2520 PLN/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 4340.00 4450 4500 4500 4286 4860 PLN/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.00 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 170.90 172 174 176 178 196 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 100.56 102 104 106 108 124 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.56 0.7 0.9 1 1.2 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 107.10 108 109 110 111 126 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 108.90 112 114 116 118 134 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 4.70 5.6 6.2 5.2 4.3 2.2 percent [+]
Export Prices 103.20 101 102 102 102 103 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 102.60 101 102 102 102 103 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.80 3 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.7 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 101.30 102 104 106 108 126 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63 2.43 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 222988.80 228000 233964 241000 241380 292000 PLN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 809621.04 846000 869432 907000 915924 1400000 PLN Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1244740.90 1420000 1300414 1590000 1345669 2260000 PLN Million [+]
Money Supply M3 1252582.60 1430000 1297080 1600000 1338324 2270000 PLN Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 111985.00 109700 111610 110000 111599 125000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 1797467.20 1910000 1850623 2020000 1890133 2620000 PLN Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.75 0.5 1.5 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 3.50 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 485151.00 507000 518824 522000 539448 654000 PLN Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 122.51 122 122 122 122 119 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -537.00 100 400 170 200 550 EUR Million [+]
Exports 15044.00 15300 15500 14220 15500 15440 EUR Million [+]
Imports 15581.00 15200 15100 14050 15300 14890 EUR Million [+]
Current Account -860.00 -695 -778 -178 -220 223 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -0.20 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -0.4 1 percent [+]
External Debt 335941.00 364000 368800 372000 374000 397000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 100.60 101 101 103 103 101 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -33.00 1120 -420 -870 540 -270 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 167091.00 176300 179400 183000 185200 194300 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 1190.00 1232 1253 1245 1258 1253 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 102.96 103 103 103 103 103 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 22.00 19 20.57 19 20.57 19 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 [+]
Weapons Sales 14.00 31.15 22.66 14.16 18.47 44.72 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 54.40 51.4 51.4 51.4 49.4 45.1 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.40 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 -1.6 -0.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 855.10 -20100 -15400 -49400 -4900 -51600 PLN Million [+]
Government Spending 105148.30 84100 83800 107000 92572 119000 PLN Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 41.50 42.5 42.76 42.8 42.86 43.9 percent [+]
Government Revenues 60941.60 154400 242600 295000 82300 327000 PLN Million [+]
Government Debt 945147.22 932000 965651 947500 983845 1052400 PLN Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 60086.40 174500 258000 344400 87200 378600 PLN Million [+]
Asylum Applications 320.00 450 520 390 350 340 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 12603.20 11850 12526 13202 13425 15905 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 6.40 4.8 5.6 7.7 8.6 8 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 53.50 54.7 54.1 52.2 53.2 53 [+]
Industrial Production 11.10 4.1 8.62 4.4 4 2.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.60 0.8 -0.4 0.7 -0.6 0.4 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 12.70 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 2 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 78.70 80.4 79.35 81 78.88 84 percent [+]
New Orders 104.10 102 104 103 105 105 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 9513.00 3840 10375 3150 10044 2050 PLN Million [+]
Car Production 50.90 59.8 41.6 37.6 51.66 40.5 Thousand Units [+]
Car Registrations 49429.00 38700 30100 41400 40434 53900 Cars [+]
Cement Production 682.00 1640 1590 1050 1158 1360 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.56 4.56 4.56 4.56 4.59 4.68 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 36.00 36 36 36 35 33 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 24.00 24 24 24 23 21 [+]
Electricity Production 16381.00 12700 13700 15000 14516 15400 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corporate Profits 154837.80 90700 125100 162000 45200 179000 PLN Million [+]
Corruption Index 62.00 63 63 63 64 66 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 29.00 29 29 29 28 26 [+]
Mining Production 0.40 -6.4 -5.8 -3.2 -1.1 1.3 percent [+]
Steel Production 770.00 642 790 574 742 584 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -0.80 -6 -4.2 -2.3 -0.28 0.2 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.20 -0.4 0.5 -0.6 0.8 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 9.70 5.2 4.7 4.5 4.2 1.9 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 260397.50 274000 279000 264000 272249 284000 PLN Million [+]
Personal Savings 3.49 2.5 6.5 14.1 -6.6 15.7 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 664373.10 679000 673754 692000 683147 758000 PLN Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.09 1.09 1.08 1.1 1.08 1.18 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 36.50 35.8 35.6 35.4 35.2 34.1 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 60.61 57.3 57.2 57 56.8 56 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Construction Output -5.10 -2.8 -1.2 -0.2 0.2 1.5 percent [+]
Housing Index 100.60 100 101 101 99.5 103 Index Points [+]
Building Permits 25414.00 47200 53401 91100 47456 97200 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 83.70 83.8 83.8 83.8 83.9 84.1 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 19.00 19 19 19 19 19 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 32.00 32 32 32 32 32 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 23.00 23 23 23 23 23 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 36.12 36.12 36.12 36.12 36.12 36.12 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.41 22.41 22.41 22.41 22.41 22.41 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 13.71 13.71 13.71 13.71 13.71 13.71 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Poland including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Poland economy. 4/24/2017