Poland | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.70 0.7 0.9 0.8 1 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 8.60 8.6 8.1 7.6 8 7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.80 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 2.3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.75 2 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -151.00 340 100 400 170 550 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 51.30 52 51.9 49.8 51.4 45.1 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 4.06 4.11 4.15 4.19 4.27 4.88 [+]
Stock Market 59646.29 59000 58500 57900 56700 47700 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.70 3.74 3.77 3.81 3.85 4.44 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.70 0.7 0.9 0.8 1 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.70 2.6 3.3 3.1 3.2 2.4 percent [+]
GDP 477.07 490 495 494 508 564 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 451081.50 428000 446000 457000 522000 555000 PLN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 78177.40 59200 79200 86400 146000 154000 PLN Million [+]
GDP per capita 14650.12 14900 15000 14789 15200 16000 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 24951.81 25300 25400 25096 25900 28300 USD [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 8.60 8.6 8.1 7.6 8 7 percent [+]
Employed Persons 16325.00 15900 15800 15850 16600 17600 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 1398.20 1450 1390 1516 1290 1120 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.00 2.4 2.4 1.46 2.5 2.1 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 17.50 16.3 16.1 16 15.8 14.6 percent [+]
Labour Costs 106.50 107 104 108 99.5 106 Index Points [+]
Productivity 108.10 108 109 106 130 136 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 85.10 86.7 95.6 98.4 55.6 65.8 Thousand [+]
Wages 4065.52 4250 4170 3990 4240 4520 PLN/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 4082.38 4280 4210 4050 4270 4540 PLN/Month [+]
Wage Growth 4.30 3.2 3.2 3.41 2.9 1.6 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 453.48 450 450 439 450 500 EUR/Month [+]
Population 38.44 38.34 38.32 38.42 38.31 38.14 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.58 60.58 60.58 60.58 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.58 65.58 65.58 65.58 65 65 [+]
Employment Change 4.50 3.2 3 7.1 2.5 1.4 percent [+]
Employment Rate 64.90 64.4 64.4 65.85 65 69 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 14968.80 15200 15400 14967 15700 17100 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 56.30 56.2 56.1 56.6 57 60 percent [+]
Part Time Employment 991.80 1160 1180 1002 1220 1490 Thousand [+]
Living Wage Family 2796.60 4590 4590 4620 4620 4790 PLN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 2466.80 2660 2660 2710 2710 2940 PLN/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 2040.00 2225 2225 2270 2270 2520 PLN/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 4340.00 4450 4450 4500 4500 4860 PLN/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 1.80 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 2.3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 170.60 173 174 174 177 188 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 100.00 104 106 99.88 109 124 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate -0.08 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.8 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 98.16 104 105 99.98 111 126 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 108.90 109 110 111 112 126 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 4.10 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.4 percent [+]
Export Prices 100.20 100 101 102 102 103 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 105.10 100 101 102 102 103 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 3.30 0.9 1.2 3.96 1.5 2.7 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 100.50 104 106 100 110 126 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.75 2 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.63 1.7 1.75 1.63 1.86 2.43 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 228152.00 224000 228000 236102 241000 292000 PLN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 797286.50 817000 846000 872302 907000 1400000 PLN Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1238924.19 1340000 1420000 1312742 1590000 2260000 PLN Million [+]
Money Supply M3 1248636.30 1350000 1430000 1322074 1600000 2270000 PLN Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 113695.00 109700 109700 114356 110000 125000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 1789853.20 1870000 1910000 1855295 2020000 2620000 PLN Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.75 1.5 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 3.50 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 503011.00 496000 507000 540976 522000 654000 PLN Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 122.51 122 122 122 122 119 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -151.00 340 100 400 170 550 EUR Million [+]
Exports 14615.00 15800 15300 15500 14220 15440 EUR Million [+]
Imports 14766.00 15460 15200 15100 14050 14890 EUR Million [+]
Current Account -533.00 59 -195 -278 -178 223 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -0.20 -1.1 -1.1 -0.59 -1.1 1 percent [+]
External Debt 352418.00 360000 364000 345600 372000 397000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 95.30 101 101 101 103 101 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 1351.00 -540 1120 -420 -870 -270 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 167091.00 175300 176300 179400 183000 194300 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 1107.00 1136 1125 1141 1128 1136 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 102.94 103 103 103 103 103 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 22.00 19 19 20.57 19 19 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 0.00 0 0 0.01 0 0 [+]
Weapons Sales 14.00 31.15 22.66 14.16 18.47 44.72 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 51.30 52 51.9 49.8 51.4 45.1 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.60 -1.9 -1.9 -3.28 -1.9 -0.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 6749.40 -11800 -20100 -11997 -58400 -51600 PLN Million [+]
Government Spending 83030.90 79800 84100 83800 107000 119000 PLN Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 41.50 42.4 42.5 42.76 42.8 43.9 percent [+]
Government Revenues 36957.10 82400 159400 225600 306000 347000 PLN Million [+]
Government Debt 923339.92 921300 932000 938336 947500 1052400 PLN Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 30207.70 94200 179500 258000 364400 398600 PLN Million [+]
Asylum Applications 390.00 951 1142 683 2660 474 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 12603.20 11850 12526 13202 13425 15905 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 4.50 4 9 3.82 13 8 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 54.20 51.1 50.7 52.63 52.2 53 [+]
Industrial Production 9.00 4.7 4.1 6.74 3.6 2.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 1.70 0.9 0.8 0.45 0.7 0.4 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 10.20 4.2 3.8 8.58 3.2 2 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 78.70 80.2 80.4 79.04 81 84 percent [+]
New Orders 111.90 102 102 104 103 105 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 8631.80 4060 3840 3934 3150 2050 PLN Million [+]
Car Production 47.70 57.5 59.8 41.6 37.6 40.5 Thousand Units [+]
Car Registrations 38076.00 39500 38700 30100 41400 53900 Cars [+]
Cement Production 387.00 1320 1640 1590 1050 1360 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.56 4.51 4.51 4.47 4.51 4.57 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 36.00 40 40 40 40 37 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 24.00 24 24 27.9 24 21 [+]
Electricity Production 15624.00 14100 12700 13700 15000 15400 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corporate Profits 84505.30 44700 38700 125100 156000 176000 PLN Million [+]
Corruption Index 62.00 63 63 63 63 66 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 29.00 29 29 35.35 29 26 [+]
Steel Production 835.00 856 642 790 574 584 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -0.50 -1.2 -0.4 -1.53 0.5 1.3 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -1.90 -1.5 -5 -1.41 -2.3 0.2 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -1.70 -0.6 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.8 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 11.40 1.1 3.2 2.7 2.5 1.9 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 274118.70 282000 274000 279000 264000 284000 PLN Million [+]
Personal Savings 4.76 -8.5 2.5 6.5 14.1 15.7 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 663928.60 672000 679000 679445 692000 758000 PLN Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.11 0.97 1.02 1.09 1.1 1.7 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 36.80 35.9 35.8 36.7 35.4 34.1 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 60.61 57.2 57.3 61.61 57 56 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Construction Output -8.00 -4.2 -2.8 -17.43 -0.2 1.5 percent [+]
Housing Index 101.90 102 100 101 101 103 Index Points [+]
Building Permits 6754.00 21100 47200 55190 91100 97200 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 83.70 83.5 83.5 84.02 83.5 83.5 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 19.00 19 19 19 19 19 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 32.00 32 32 32 32 32 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 23.00 23 23 23 23 23 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 36.12 42.8 42.8 36.12 42.8 42.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.41 20.1 20.1 22.41 20.1 20.1 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 13.71 22.7 22.7 13.71 22.7 22.7 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Poland including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Poland economy. 3/1/2017