Poland | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 1 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 8.20 9.1 9.4 8.8 8.4 7.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.00 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 2.1 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.49 2 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -200.00 460 340 100 400 550 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 51.30 51.9 52 51.9 49.7 45.1 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Currency 4.21 4.21 4.25 4.3 4.34 5 [+]
Stock Market 48474.03 46800 46400 45900 45400 37800 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.82 3.64 3.67 3.71 3.74 4.32 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 1 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.50 2.7 3.2 3.3 3.1 2.2 percent [+]
GDP 474.78 485 490 495 492 564 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 443452.50 512000 428000 446000 457000 555000 PLN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 74517.20 141000 59200 79200 86400 154000 PLN Million [+]
GDP per capita 14580.93 14800 14900 15000 15167 16000 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 24835.90 25200 25300 25400 25786 28300 USD [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 8.20 9.1 9.4 8.8 8.4 7.2 percent [+]
Employed Persons 16266.00 16450 15900 15800 15850 17600 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 1309.00 1410 1450 1390 1330 1120 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.20 2.4 2.4 2.4 1.61 2.1 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 15.80 16.2 16.3 16.1 16 14.6 percent [+]
Labour Costs 104.30 97.4 107 104 108 106 Index Points [+]
Productivity 108.70 129 108 109 106 136 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 89.50 52.8 86.7 95.6 98.4 65.8 Thousand [+]
Wages 4055.04 4110 4250 4170 3990 4520 PLN/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 4039.86 4150 4280 4210 4050 4540 PLN/Month [+]
Wage Growth 3.60 3.6 3.2 3.2 4.14 1.6 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 417.02 440 450 450 417 500 EUR/Month [+]
Population 38.44 38.35 38.34 38.32 38.39 38.14 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.60 60.6 60.6 60.6 60.6 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.60 65.6 65.6 65.6 65.6 65 [+]
Employment Change 3.10 3.6 3.2 3 2.86 1.4 percent [+]
Employment Rate 64.30 64.4 64.4 64.4 65.85 69 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 14906.30 15100 15200 15400 15256 17100 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 56.10 56.4 56.2 56.1 56.6 60 percent [+]
Part Time Employment 995.40 1120 1160 1180 1018 1490 Thousand [+]
Living Wage Family 4510.00 4540 4590 4590 4620 4790 PLN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 2580.00 2600 2660 2660 2710 2940 PLN/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 2040.00 2150 2225 2225 2270 2520 PLN/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 4340.00 4390 4450 4450 4500 4860 PLN/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Inflation Rate 0.00 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 2.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 168.50 172 173 174 169 188 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 99.79 102 104 106 99.65 124 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate -0.38 0.2 0.4 0.5 -0.76 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 98.16 103 104 105 99.98 126 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 106.00 107 108 109 106 126 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 0.60 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.76 1.9 percent [+]
Export Prices 97.10 99.8 100 101 102 103 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 96.00 98.4 100 101 102 103 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.40 1 0.9 1.2 0.32 2.7 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 99.60 102 104 106 99.29 126 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.49 2 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.63 1.65 1.7 1.75 1.64 2.43 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 223175.90 221000 224000 228000 234497 292000 PLN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 759085.09 789000 817000 846000 851580 1400000 PLN Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1208958.25 1260000 1340000 1420000 1286761 2260000 PLN Million [+]
Money Supply M3 1218478.00 1270000 1350000 1430000 1305661 2270000 PLN Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 113029.80 109600 109700 109700 114156 125000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 1736805.40 1830000 1870000 1910000 1892709 2620000 PLN Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 3.50 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 458227.00 485000 496000 507000 487143 654000 PLN Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 122.51 122 122 122 124 119 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Balance of Trade -200.00 460 340 100 400 550 EUR Million [+]
Exports 15312.00 14100 15800 15300 15500 15440 EUR Million [+]
Imports 15512.00 13640 15460 15200 15100 14890 EUR Million [+]
Current Account -999.00 -276 59 -195 -278 223 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -0.20 -0.5 -1.1 -1.1 -0.06 1 percent [+]
External Debt 343810.00 356000 360000 364000 345600 397000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 101.10 100 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -1181.00 -1050 -540 1120 -420 -270 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 167091.00 174700 175300 176300 179400 194300 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 1107.00 1120 1136 1125 1141 1136 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 102.94 103 103 103 103 103 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 22.00 19 19 19 20.57 19 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 0.00 0 0 0 0.04 0 [+]
Weapons Sales 14.00 31.15 22.66 14.16 18.47 44.72 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 51.30 51.9 52 51.9 49.7 45.1 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.60 -2.5 -1.9 -1.9 -3.43 -0.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -24648.60 -54100 -11800 -20100 -17621 -51600 PLN Million [+]
Government Spending 83064.30 104000 79800 84100 83800 119000 PLN Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 41.50 42.2 42.4 42.5 43.12 43.9 percent [+]
Government Revenues 268621.50 298400 82400 159400 225600 347000 PLN Million [+]
Government Debt 902709.47 912600 921300 932000 938336 1052400 PLN Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 293270.10 352500 94200 179500 258000 398600 PLN Million [+]
Asylum Applications 765.00 1241 951 1142 714 474 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 12603.20 11850 12526 13202 13425 15905 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Business Confidence -1.80 6 4 9 -1.27 8 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.90 50.9 51.1 50.7 51.63 53 [+]
Industrial Production -1.30 5.5 4.7 4.1 2.14 2.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.20 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.45 0.4 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -0.50 4.4 4.2 3.8 4.3 2 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 79.10 79.9 80.2 80.4 79.04 84 percent [+]
New Orders 125.80 105 102 102 104 105 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 4278.70 4145 4060 3840 3934 2050 PLN Million [+]
Car Production 41.50 35.1 57.5 59.8 41.6 40.5 Thousand Units [+]
Car Registrations 32245.00 38900 39500 38700 30100 53900 Cars [+]
Cement Production 1438.00 980 1320 1640 1590 1360 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.56 4.49 4.51 4.51 4.47 4.57 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 36.00 41 40 40 40 37 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 24.00 25 24 24 27.73 21 [+]
Electricity Production 13134.00 14800 14100 12700 13700 15400 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corporate Profits 84505.30 151200 44700 38700 125100 176000 PLN Million [+]
Corruption Index 62.00 62 63 63 63 66 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 30.00 30 29 29 33.78 26 [+]
Steel Production 780.00 571 856 642 790 584 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -7.50 -3.4 -1.2 -0.4 -1.43 1.3 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -2.40 -0.3 -1.5 -5 -2.57 0.2 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.70 0.7 -0.6 0.4 0.5 0.8 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.70 3.7 1.1 3.2 2.7 1.9 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 264849.00 259000 282000 274000 279000 284000 PLN Million [+]
Personal Savings 4.76 13.4 -8.5 2.5 6.5 15.7 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 658349.50 665000 672000 679000 681908 758000 PLN Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.09 0.91 0.97 1.02 1.09 1.7 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 36.30 35.7 35.9 35.8 36.7 34.1 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 60.61 57.4 57.2 57.3 63.91 56 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Construction Output -16.10 -8.5 -4.2 -2.8 -15.79 1.5 percent [+]
Housing Index 103.20 99.7 102 100 101 103 Index Points [+]
Building Permits 82494.00 89700 21100 47200 50222 97200 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 83.70 83.5 83.5 83.5 84.22 83.5 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 19.00 19 19 19 19 19 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 32.00 32 32 32 32 32 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 23.00 23 23 23 23 23 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 42.57 42.8 42.8 42.8 42.57 42.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 19.86 20.1 20.1 20.1 19.86 20.1 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 22.71 22.7 22.7 22.7 22.71 22.7 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Poland including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Poland economy. 12/4/2016