South Africa | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate -1.20 0.5 1.3 1 1.5 2.1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 26.70 23.8 23.4 23 23.5 21.3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 6.10 6.6 7.8 8 7.9 4.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 7.00 7 7.25 7.25 7.25 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 430.54 -2044 -2213 -2189 -2204 -2214 ZAR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 50.10 50.9 51.3 51.7 51.7 48.5 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Currency 15.18 15.23 15.38 15.53 15.68 18.1 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 9.13 9.41 9.51 9.6 9.69 11.18 percent [+]
Stock Market 51170.00 53700 53200 52600 52100 43400 points [+]
GDP Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate -1.20 0.5 1.3 1 1.5 2.1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate -0.20 0.5 0.9 1 1.2 3 percent [+]
GDP 350.09 358 361 363 363 410 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 3067490.42 3055742 3057714 3060626 3060626 3278799 ZAR Million [+]
Gross National Product 2970942.00 2939325 2950389 2962226 2974771 3219715 ZAR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 628530.30 626751 625413 625479 624606 597714 ZAR Million [+]
GDP per capita 6086.45 6094 6094 6094 6094 6108 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 12446.37 12503 12503 12503 12503 12499 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 66821.00 66712 66420 66325 65768 61196 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 109411.71 109651 109880 110005 110181 111244 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 378896.30 378914 380660 382179 383934 404184 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Mining 219657.70 224568 225125 225219 228153 240157 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 467662.36 468996 470090 471198 472165 481076 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Services 614343.95 617436 620698 623994 627283 673263 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 259164.29 261237 261550 261944 262558 279204 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 65500.05 65217 65450 65446 65444 68843 ZAR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 26.70 23.8 23.4 23 23.5 21.3 percent [+]
Employed Persons 8992000.00 9039817 9062338 9080459 9093407 9020683 [+]
Unemployed Persons 5714.00 5553 5711 5474 5708 5136 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 58.70 58.8 59 59.2 59.2 58.5 percent [+]
Labour Costs 147.30 152 154 156 158 187 Index Points [+]
Wages 17517.00 17955 17989 18560 18751 22584 ZAR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 15841.00 15499 15558 16438 16625 19408 ZAR/Month [+]
Population 54.96 55.49 55.75 56.01 56.25 59.53 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Living Wage Family 23800.00 23500 23500 23500 23500 23500 ZAR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 6410.00 6205 6205 6205 6205 6205 ZAR/Month [+]
Employment Rate 44.16 44.38 44.44 44.58 44.59 45.12 percent [+]
Wages Low Skilled 3410.00 3260 3166 3105 3067 3000 ZAR/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 54.50 59.15 58.24 58.57 59.58 63.65 percent [+]
Wages High Skilled 19900.00 19471 19197 19021 18908 18708 ZAR/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Inflation Rate 6.10 6.6 7.8 8 7.9 4.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 121.40 122 123 125 126 148 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 121.20 122 123 125 126 147 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 5.50 6 6.2 5.9 5.9 3.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices 125.40 127 128 131 131 162 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 7.00 8 8.2 8.4 8.4 4.3 percent [+]
Export Prices 143.00 146 148 152 152 154 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 139.40 141 141 142 142 142 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 10.50 11.8 12.5 12.3 11.1 7.1 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 113.90 112 112 112 112 121 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Interest Rate 7.00 7 7.25 7.25 7.25 6 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 7.37 7.38 7.45 7.52 7.52 6 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 223409.00 222443 226679 230975 235332 308979 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1451865.00 1527536 1562971 1599367 1636717 2319033 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2438949.00 2512417 2559041 2603174 2646633 3373638 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 3073387.00 3150361 3225926 3302128 3379066 4674741 ZAR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 4788807.00 4960575 5065400 5172095 5280716 7180081 ZAR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 46081.00 45990 45825 45788 45781 45780 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 3133093.00 3167782 3207871 3249135 3289402 3783136 ZAR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 5.80 6.44 6.54 6.65 6.65 5.73 percent [+]
Lending Rate 10.50 10.5 10.75 10.75 10.5 8.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 799866.00 825781 833575 840115 860088 976568 ZAR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Balance of Trade 430.54 -2044 -2213 -2189 -2204 -2214 ZAR Million [+]
Exports 92220.03 90645 91560 91865 91903 91894 ZAR Million [+]
Imports 91789.40 91900 91705 91687 91676 91674 ZAR Million [+]
Current Account -211000.00 -189383 -205887 -196551 -196105 -105157 ZAR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.40 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -1.5 percent [+]
External Debt 124070.00 138879 141808 144643 144643 166464 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1320375.00 1368056 1357172 1357875 1358307 1358342 [+]
Gold Reserves 125.22 126 127 127 128 131 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 3.00 3 3 3 3 3 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 1942.00 2526 2613 2579 2392 3295 ZAR Billion [+]
Terrorism Index 4.23 3.48 3.35 3.22 2.92 2.25 [+]
Weapons Sales 39.00 70.48 79.99 89.51 67.06 38.57 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 50.10 50.9 51.3 51.7 51.7 48.5 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.20 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3.1 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -25097.00 -22426 -22042 -18071 -18071 -11641 ZAR Million [+]
Government Spending 632428.00 636572 647201 657160 657160 696720 ZAR Million [+]
Government Revenues 66550.00 130291 111281 125549 107121 107436 ZAR Million [+]
Government Debt 40265.00 46824 47434 47756 47756 55845 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 91647.00 83116 97290 105313 106804 106297 ZAR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 3881.20 3895 3900 3904 3916 4013 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Business Confidence 32.00 34.2 34.7 30.44 30.3 45 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.90 49.8 50.3 50.9 50.9 51.8 [+]
Industrial Production 2.90 -0.47 0.2 1.4 1.4 1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.80 -0.14 0.07 0.12 0.12 0.11 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 82.20 79.9 79.7 79.5 79.5 81.1 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 3426.00 855 2734 3501 3999 5909 ZAR Million [+]
Bankruptcies 141.00 155 180 128 174 158 Companies [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 42907.00 44512 43403 44138 44004 43994 [+]
Car Registrations 27143.00 28843 28006 28428 28357 28356 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index -0.90 -0.47 -0.47 -0.45 -0.44 94.3 persent [+]
Corruption Index 44.00 44 44 44 44 48 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 61.00 61 61 61 61 57 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.53 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 49.00 49 49 49 49 45 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 73.00 73 73 73 73 69 [+]
Electricity Production 20233.00 20727 20749 20607 20597 20654 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Steel Production 560.00 570 581 584 584 584 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -18.00 2.1 1.4 -0.67 -0.33 2.5 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -9.00 -5 1.5 4 4 1.6 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -1.70 0.1 -0.02 0.07 0.08 0.08 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.50 2.19 2.23 2.22 2.22 2.22 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1854645.00 1877104 1885827 1895092 1904808 2084418 ZAR Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 2492534.00 2488210 2509889 2532567 2532567 3144833 ZAR Million [+]
Personal Savings -0.80 -1.51 -1.76 -1.85 -1.88 0.2 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 7.06 7 6.32 6.44 6.29 3.11 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 10.50 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 8.5 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 37.00 37.3 37.5 37.9 37.9 36 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 78.00 78.5 78.8 79 79 77 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.81 0.74 0.72 0.69 0.69 1.26 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Housing Index 513.00 508 510 512 512 530 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00 28 28 28 28 28 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 41.00 41 41 41 41 41 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 14.00 14 14 14 14 14 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 3.00 3 3 3 3 3 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 2.00 2 2 2 2 2 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for South Africa including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Africa economy. 6/28/2016