South Africa | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.9 1 0.9 1.2 2.1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 27.10 26.2 25.7 25 24.5 21 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 6.80 6.6 6.5 6 5.9 4.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 7.00 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.5 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -1091.85 -1771 1116 -10265 -6639 -1700 ZAR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 50.10 51.7 51.7 51.7 51.7 52 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 13.59 14.16 14.3 14.44 14.57 16.66 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 8.73 9.16 9.25 9.34 8.92 10.78 percent [+]
Stock Market 52580.79 48400 47900 47400 46900 39500 points [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.9 1 0.9 1.2 2.1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.70 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 2.6 percent [+]
GDP 314.57 360 360 360 360 420 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 3095467.20 3060000 3060000 3125203 3130184 3206948 ZAR Million [+]
Gross National Product 3009793.00 3023857 3037191 3051248 3065966 3279313 ZAR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 609390.90 602819 598137 593197 587712 528597 ZAR Million [+]
GDP per capita 7593.36 6090 6090 7616 7613 7771 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 12405.67 12500 12500 12417 12412 12571 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 66636.05 65783 65008 64981 64720 61200 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 109394.00 109422 109434 109447 109452 109507 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 383269.43 381484 381280 381221 381311 381547 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Mining 231242.82 233085 229161 229013 229538 240000 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 470912.80 473795 475065 476321 477434 486331 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Services 620671.23 626402 629505 632600 635698 670706 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 261237.15 265380 267103 268572 270176 292495 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 64723.97 64342 64286 64290 64347 68800 ZAR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 27.10 26.2 25.7 25 24.5 21 percent [+]
Employed Persons 9282000.00 9292388 9286818 9292685 9290814 9020000 [+]
Unemployed Persons 5873.00 6049 5936 5899 5800 5140 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.10 58.5 58.9 58.4 58 58.2 percent [+]
Labour Costs 154.20 161 163 166 168 194 Index Points [+]
Wages 18104.00 18541 18881 19072 19282 22002 ZAR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 16376.00 15600 15558 16438 16890 19408 ZAR/Month [+]
Population 54.96 55.24 55.49 55.75 56.01 59.53 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Living Wage Family 26400.00 26100 26100 26100 26100 26100 ZAR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 6880.00 6613 6855 6635 6835 6764 ZAR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 20100.00 20473 20463 20465 20465 20465 ZAR/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 3650.00 3409 3359 3318 3286 3168 ZAR/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 54.20 52.71 55.48 52.17 51.5 51.51 percent [+]
Employment Rate 43.08 43.11 42.88 43.09 43.31 45.12 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 6.80 6.6 6.5 6 5.9 4.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 124.70 126 128 129 130 148 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 123.40 125 126 128 129 144 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 5.90 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.3 3.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices 128.60 133 135 137 139 162 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 6.90 7.1 7.4 7.6 7.5 4.3 percent [+]
Export Prices 146.50 150 150 151 151 151 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 142.20 142 142 142 142 142 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 11.70 11.5 11 10.9 10.4 7.1 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 116.40 115 114 114 113 119 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 7.00 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.5 6 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 7.36 7.52 7.52 7.36 7.5 6 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 240465.00 233698 236925 240595 244306 287855 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1610127.00 1619740 1652998 1691219 1728049 2163392 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2561804.00 2615427 2656912 2698098 2738908 3202088 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 3111224.00 3165113 3207985 3247175 3286597 3727007 ZAR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 4876132.00 4963866 5030049 5095792 5161073 5909418 ZAR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 47356.00 48311 48610 48999 49144 50645 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 3222358.00 3276788 3311862 3346445 3380149 3720219 ZAR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.20 5.8 6.6 6.6 6.6 5.4 percent [+]
Lending Rate 10.50 10.75 10.75 10.5 11 9.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 722205.00 759364 738944 746720 783000 977000 ZAR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -1091.85 -1771 1116 -10265 -6639 -1700 ZAR Million [+]
Exports 99638.03 90763 93582 85456 90804 99742 ZAR Million [+]
Imports 100729.88 92534 92466 95721 97443 101442 ZAR Million [+]
Current Account -175774.00 -162787 -142787 -186105 -206871 -105157 ZAR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.40 -4.1 -4.1 -4.1 -4.1 -2.9 percent [+]
External Debt 141530.00 140000 145000 150000 153000 166000 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1269749.00 1502395 1266030 1278553 1340509 1518528 [+]
Gold Reserves 125.25 127 127 128 129 131 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 3.53 3.16 2.91 2.67 2.42 1.99 [+]
Weapons Sales 39.00 79.99 89.51 67.06 67.06 38.57 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 2.00 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 1958.00 2132 2147 2162 2199 2604 ZAR Billion [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 50.10 51.7 51.7 51.7 51.7 52 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.20 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -4.1 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -17903.00 -18100 28300 -3870 26500 32600 ZAR Million [+]
Government Spending 638176.00 649000 650000 657000 671000 697000 ZAR Million [+]
Government Revenues 77369.00 120466 127219 105214 147236 1512702 ZAR Million [+]
Government Debt 47948.00 49800 47800 48100 49500 55800 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 95272.00 124672 105608 95432 113502 121440 ZAR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 3881.20 3895 3900 3904 3916 4013 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 38.00 40.7 39 42 45 45 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 46.70 50.8 51 50.9 51 51.8 [+]
Industrial Production 1.90 2.2 2.6 2 1.9 1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.30 0.4 0.9 0.7 -0.2 0.5 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 82.20 82 81.7 82.6 81.9 81.5 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 20012.00 5464 6472 5580 5796 5631 ZAR Million [+]
Bankruptcies 160.00 166 166 166 166 166 Companies [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 41639.00 47380 47286 47251 47277 47272 [+]
Car Registrations 28331.00 30008 28312 30548 29974 29974 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.80 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.4 1 percent [+]
Mining Production -4.20 -0.8 -0.5 0.4 0.5 1.2 percent [+]
Steel Production 498.30 536 540 541 542 542 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.47 4.42 4.42 4.42 4.42 4.53 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 47.00 49 48 48 48 45 [+]
Composite Pmi 51.60 50.57 50.79 50.72 50.74 50.73 SA [+]
Ease of Doing Business 74.00 72 72 72 72 69 [+]
Electricity Production 20822.00 20946 21145 20965 20850 20951 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 44.00 45 45 45 45 48 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 61.00 61 61 68.88 60 57 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -10.00 -11 -8 3 2.2 1.6 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 3.50 -0.3 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.80 1.6 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1871475.00 1881594 1891195 1901339 1911956 2061891 ZAR Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 2588841.00 2530000 2530000 2809046 2660000 3140000 ZAR Million [+]
Personal Savings -0.80 -1 -1.5 -1.6 -1.8 0.2 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 4.60 4.29 4.28 4.15 7.51 3.11 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 10.50 10.5 10.5 10 10 8.5 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 35.30 37.9 37.9 32.96 37.5 36 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 78.00 78.5 78.5 78.5 78.5 77 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.94 0.69 0.69 0.94 0.95 1.26 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Housing Index 544.47 510 505 511 517 530 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00 28 28 28 28 28 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 41.00 41 41 41 41 41 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 14.00 14 14 14 14 14 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 2.00 2 2 2 2 2 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for South Africa including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Africa economy. 1/20/2017