South Africa | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.30 0.3 0.5 0.9 1 2.1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 26.60 26.4 26 26.2 25.7 21 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 5.90 6.1 6.7 6.6 6.5 4.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 7.00 7 7.25 7.25 7.25 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 5223.30 9076 2154 2229 12302 300 ZAR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 50.10 50.9 50.9 51.7 51.7 52 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Currency 13.61 13.75 13.88 14.02 14.15 16.33 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 8.62 8.56 8.65 8.73 8.82 10.18 percent [+]
Stock Market 51774.00 52300 51800 51200 50700 42300 points [+]
GDP Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.30 0.3 0.5 0.9 1 2.1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.60 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.8 2.6 percent [+]
GDP 312.80 300 300 360 360 420 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 3089550.00 3060000 3060000 3060000 3060000 3258086 ZAR Million [+]
Gross National Product 2988890.00 2986596 2996211 3006875 3018493 3246613 ZAR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 614389.00 609820 607113 603702 599497 531709 ZAR Million [+]
GDP per capita 7575.24 6090 6090 6090 6090 7771 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 12389.96 12500 12500 12500 12500 12571 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 66682.05 65514 65279 64895 64217 61200 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 109380.34 109572 109616 109666 109775 110196 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 386355.28 390285 393160 393848 394581 413305 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Mining 225875.02 226147 226299 229125 225670 240000 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 469052.00 470167 471292 472280 473259 481359 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Services 618824.75 622710 626495 630061 633570 679650 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 261028.96 258132 258223 258609 259390 281981 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 65207.89 65438 65432 65429 65551 68800 ZAR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 26.60 26.4 26 26.2 25.7 21 percent [+]
Employed Persons 9273000.00 9324942 9333138 9364708 9392660 9020000 [+]
Unemployed Persons 5634.00 5800 5658 5975 5870 5140 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 57.90 59 59.2 59.2 59.2 58.5 percent [+]
Labour Costs 155.50 159 161 164 166 199 Index Points [+]
Wages 17422.00 18000 18420 18508 18815 22068 ZAR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 15492.00 15600 15558 16438 16625 19408 ZAR/Month [+]
Population 54.96 55.75 56.01 56.25 56.49 59.53 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Living Wage Family 26400.00 26100 26100 26100 26100 26100 ZAR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 6880.00 6613 6855 6635 6835 6764 ZAR/Month [+]
Employment Rate 42.48 42.47 42.73 42.31 42.17 45.12 percent [+]
Wages Low Skilled 3650.00 3551 3472 3409 3359 3168 ZAR/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 53.70 53.6 52.71 54.28 52.17 51.51 percent [+]
Wages High Skilled 20100.00 20566 20437 20473 20463 20465 ZAR/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Inflation Rate 5.90 6.1 6.7 6.6 6.5 4.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10 0 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 123.00 123 125 126 128 148 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 122.60 123 124 126 127 146 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 5.70 5.5 5.9 5.9 5.8 3.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices 127.50 128 131 133 135 162 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 7.40 7.6 7.9 7.1 7.4 4.3 percent [+]
Export Prices 145.60 148 152 152 153 154 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 143.10 144 145 146 146 146 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 11.30 11.5 12 11.5 11 7.1 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 114.00 116 117 119 115 121 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Interest Rate 7.00 7 7.25 7.25 7.25 6 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 7.36 7.45 7.52 7.52 7.52 6 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 218637.00 223577 227264 230993 234765 292677 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1451769.00 1467553 1499149 1531464 1564505 2110652 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2453694.00 2469066 2515787 2559191 2601379 3242803 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 3029735.00 3090139 3145439 3201210 3257507 4124026 ZAR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 4843921.00 4939086 5035278 5132918 5232067 6809189 ZAR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 45708.00 45989 45552 45526 45522 45521 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 3170994.00 3197254 3235509 3272897 3309287 3727256 ZAR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.20 5.8 5.8 5.8 6.6 5.4 percent [+]
Lending Rate 10.50 10.5 10.75 10.75 10.75 9.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 739405.00 742000 771465 759364 738944 977000 ZAR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Balance of Trade 5223.30 9076 2154 2229 12302 300 ZAR Million [+]
Exports 95726.80 100940 91895 94763 99769 92742 ZAR Million [+]
Imports 90503.52 91864 89741 92534 87467 92442 ZAR Million [+]
Current Account -134396.00 -189383 -162787 -196551 -186105 -105157 ZAR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.40 -3.9 -3.9 -4.1 -4.1 -2.9 percent [+]
External Debt 129159.00 132000 135000 140000 145000 166000 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1319955.00 1263577 1276592 1276697 1275472 1275366 [+]
Gold Reserves 125.22 126 127 127 128 131 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 3.00 3 3 3 3 3 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 2089.00 2248 2289 2316 2334 2366 ZAR Billion [+]
Terrorism Index 4.23 3.35 3.22 2.92 2.62 2.25 [+]
Weapons Sales 39.00 70.48 79.99 89.51 67.06 38.57 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 50.10 50.9 50.9 51.7 51.7 52 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.20 -4.3 -4.3 -4.2 -4.2 -4.1 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -56933.00 -4928 20100 -18100 28300 32600 ZAR Million [+]
Government Spending 634731.00 647000 647400 649000 650000 697000 ZAR Million [+]
Government Revenues 63580.00 101331 145847 120466 127219 1512702 ZAR Million [+]
Government Debt 44313.00 47400 48800 49800 47800 55800 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 120512.00 97300 104338 124672 103173 121440 ZAR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 3881.20 3895 3900 3904 3916 4013 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Business Confidence 42.00 30 46 43.7 43.27 45 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 46.30 49.3 51.9 50.8 51 51.8 [+]
Industrial Production 0.40 3.45 2.9 3.2 2.6 1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -1.50 0.5 -0.2 0.4 0.9 0.5 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 82.00 81.9 82.4 82 81.7 81.5 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -22705.00 -5404 -4561 -2651 -383 5842 ZAR Million [+]
Bankruptcies 185.00 182 130 177 159 161 Companies [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 48146.00 47542 46017 45837 45902 45884 [+]
Car Registrations 30356.00 31042 29941 29303 28312 29306 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index -1.10 0.1 0 0.1 0.5 -0.3 percent [+]
Corruption Index 44.00 44 44 45 45 48 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 61.00 61 61 61 61 57 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.42 4.42 4.53 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 49.00 49 49 48 48 45 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 73.00 75 75 72 72 69 [+]
Electricity Production 22336.00 21880 20795 20784 21290 21102 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Steel Production 445.50 487 527 541 545 546 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -5.40 -2.7 -2 -0.5 -0.2 1.2 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -11.00 -10 -8 -4 2 1.6 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.40 -0.18 0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.7 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 0.80 1.8 2 1.6 1.4 2.2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1857815.00 1860425 1867587 1875724 1884590 2045979 ZAR Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 2538686.00 2510000 2530000 2530000 2530000 3140000 ZAR Million [+]
Personal Savings -0.80 -0.8 -0.6 -1 -1.5 0.2 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 6.15 6.88 7.02 6.9 6.98 3.11 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 10.50 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 8.5 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 36.60 37.5 37.9 37.9 37.9 36 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 78.00 78.8 79 78.5 78.5 77 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.84 0.72 0.69 0.69 0.69 1.26 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Housing Index 525.19 510 512 512 512 530 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00 28 28 28 28 28 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 41.00 41 41 41 41 41 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 14.00 14 14 14 14 14 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 3.00 3 3 3 3 3 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 2.00 2 2 2 2 2 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for South Africa including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Africa economy. 9/29/2016