South Africa | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate -1.20 0.3 0.5 0.9 1 2.1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 26.60 26.4 26 25.5 25.5 21 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 6.00 6.6 6.9 7 6.5 4.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 7.00 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 12530.50 4438 4237 4308 4449 4775 ZAR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 50.10 50.9 50.9 51.7 51.7 52 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Currency 14.35 13.75 13.88 14.02 14.15 16.33 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 9.06 8.56 8.65 8.73 8.82 10.18 percent [+]
Stock Market 53507.00 52300 51800 51200 50700 42300 points [+]
GDP Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate -1.20 0.3 0.5 0.9 1 2.1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate -0.20 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.8 3 percent [+]
GDP 312.80 300 300 360 360 420 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 3067490.42 3060000 3060000 3060000 3060000 3270000 ZAR Million [+]
Gross National Product 2970942.00 2950000 2960000 2970000 2990000 3220000 ZAR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 628530.30 625000 625000 625000 623000 598000 ZAR Million [+]
GDP per capita 7575.24 6090 6090 6090 6090 7771 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 12389.96 12500 12500 12500 12500 12571 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 66821.00 66400 66300 65800 65400 61200 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 109411.71 110000 110000 110000 110000 111000 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 378896.30 381000 382000 384000 385000 404000 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Mining 219657.70 225125 225219 228153 225060 240000 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 467662.36 470090 471198 472165 473128 481076 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Services 614343.95 621000 624000 627000 631000 673000 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 259164.29 262000 262000 263000 263000 279000 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 65500.05 65500 65400 65400 65600 68800 ZAR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 26.60 26.4 26 25.5 25.5 21 percent [+]
Employed Persons 9273000.00 9324942 9333138 9364708 9392660 9020000 [+]
Unemployed Persons 5634.00 5800 5658 5975 5870 5140 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 57.90 59 59.2 59.2 59.2 58.5 percent [+]
Labour Costs 147.30 154 156 158 160 187 Index Points [+]
Wages 17422.00 18000 18420 18508 18815 22068 ZAR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 15492.00 15600 15558 16438 16625 19408 ZAR/Month [+]
Population 54.96 55.75 56.01 56.25 56.49 59.53 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Living Wage Family 26400.00 26100 26100 26100 26100 26100 ZAR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 6880.00 6613 6855 6635 6835 6764 ZAR/Month [+]
Employment Rate 43.00 42.69 42.94 42.5 42.42 45.12 percent [+]
Wages Low Skilled 3650.00 3551 3472 3409 3359 3168 ZAR/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 53.70 52.8 51.71 54.28 53.17 52.51 percent [+]
Wages High Skilled 20100.00 20566 20437 20473 20463 20465 ZAR/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Inflation Rate 6.00 6.6 6.9 7 6.5 4.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.80 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 123.10 124 126 128 129 151 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 122.40 123 125 126 128 148 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 5.70 5.7 5.9 5.9 5.8 3.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices 126.50 128 131 131 131 162 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 7.40 6.6 6.9 7.1 7.4 4.3 percent [+]
Export Prices 143.00 148 152 152 153 154 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 139.40 141 142 142 142 142 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 11.30 11.5 11.3 11.1 11 7.1 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 116.60 116 117 119 115 121 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Interest Rate 7.00 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 6 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 7.36 7.45 7.52 7.52 7.52 6 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 221141.00 220072 223781 227528 231315 289000 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1436672.00 1479608 1510831 1542894 1575775 2122699 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2414568.00 2500001 2542602 2583813 2624665 3253998 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 3035252.00 3151366 3214638 3278569 3343209 4347446 ZAR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 4844279.00 4980955 5086316 5193341 5302095 7041387 ZAR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 46157.00 46043 45980 45970 45968 45968 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 3160505.00 3196349 3234234 3271298 3307368 3721193 ZAR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.20 5.8 5.8 5.8 6.6 5.4 percent [+]
Lending Rate 10.50 10.75 10.75 10.75 10.75 8.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 726921.00 834000 727203 724969 724476 977000 ZAR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Balance of Trade 12530.50 4438 4237 4308 4449 4775 ZAR Million [+]
Exports 105224.02 102395 102048 102070 102106 102132 ZAR Million [+]
Imports 92693.52 91646 91054 90867 90801 90775 ZAR Million [+]
Current Account -211000.00 -189383 -205887 -196551 -196105 -105157 ZAR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.40 -3.9 -3.9 -4.1 -4.1 -2.9 percent [+]
External Debt 129159.00 142000 145000 145000 145000 166000 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1175811.00 1240672 1246294 1245028 1244288 1244305 [+]
Gold Reserves 125.22 127 127 128 129 131 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 3.00 3 3 3 3 3 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 2089.00 2248 2289 2316 2334 2366 ZAR Billion [+]
Terrorism Index 4.23 3.35 3.22 2.92 2.62 2.25 [+]
Weapons Sales 39.00 70.48 79.99 89.51 67.06 38.57 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 50.10 50.9 50.9 51.7 51.7 52 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.20 -4.3 -4.3 -4.2 -4.2 -4.1 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 26945.00 -2316 -18100 -18100 -18100 -11600 ZAR Million [+]
Government Spending 632428.00 647000 657000 657000 657000 697000 ZAR Million [+]
Government Revenues 122014.00 101260 116682 96895 112615 97572 ZAR Million [+]
Government Debt 44313.00 47400 47800 47800 47800 55800 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 95069.00 97300 103614 103408 102334 102575 ZAR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 3881.20 3895 3900 3904 3916 4013 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Business Confidence 32.00 31 34 30.3 29.69 45 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 52.50 51.3 51.9 50.8 51 51.8 [+]
Industrial Production 4.50 3.45 2.9 3.2 2.6 1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.70 0.11 0.08 0.1 0.11 0.12 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 82.20 79.7 79.5 79.5 79.5 81.1 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 3426.00 2734 3501 3999 4471 5909 ZAR Million [+]
Bankruptcies 122.00 177 125 171 155 155 Companies [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 44883.00 43542 44167 44069 44031 44049 [+]
Car Registrations 29007.00 28071 28508 28444 28436 28441 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.90 0.26 0.15 0.12 0.11 94.3 percent [+]
Corruption Index 44.00 44 44 44 44 48 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 61.00 61 61 61 61 57 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.53 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 49.00 49 49 49 49 45 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 73.00 73 73 73 73 69 [+]
Electricity Production 21436.00 21158 20617 20784 21055 20907 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Steel Production 544.80 570 576 578 578 578 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -2.50 -1.7 -1 -0.5 -0.2 1.2 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -11.00 -10 -8 -4 2 1.6 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -2.00 -0.13 0.18 0.2 0.19 0.18 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.70 2.67 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1854645.00 1885827 1895092 1904808 1914958 2084418 ZAR Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 2492534.00 2510000 2530000 2530000 2530000 3140000 ZAR Million [+]
Personal Savings -0.80 -1.76 -1.85 -1.88 -1.89 0.2 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 7.30 6.73 6.8 6.69 6.76 3.11 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 10.50 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 8.5 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 37.00 37.5 37.9 37.9 37.9 36 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 78.00 78.8 79 79 79 77 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.96 0.72 0.69 0.69 0.69 1.26 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Housing Index 525.79 510 512 512 512 530 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00 28 28 28 28 28 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 41.00 41 41 41 41 41 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 14.00 14 14 14 14 14 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 3.00 3 3 3 3 3 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 2.00 2 2 2 2 2 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for South Africa including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Africa economy. 8/27/2016