South Africa | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.30 0.5 0.9 1 0.9 2.1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 27.10 26.3 26.2 25.7 25 21 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 6.40 6.4 6.6 6.5 6 4.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 7.00 7 7.25 7.25 7.25 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -4410.97 2155 -1771 1116 -10265 -1700 ZAR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 50.10 50.9 51.7 51.7 51.7 52 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Currency 13.79 14.57 14.72 14.86 15.01 17.32 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 9.05 9.12 9.21 9.3 9.39 10.84 percent [+]
Stock Market 49256.10 50100 49600 49100 48600 40500 points [+]
GDP Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.30 0.5 0.9 1 0.9 2.1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.60 0.5 0.6 0.8 1 2.6 percent [+]
GDP 312.80 300 360 360 360 420 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 3089550.00 3060000 3060000 3060000 3109978 3222618 ZAR Million [+]
Gross National Product 2988890.00 2996211 3006875 3018493 3030980 3246613 ZAR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 614389.00 607113 603702 599497 594252 531709 ZAR Million [+]
GDP per capita 7575.24 6090 6090 6090 7646 7771 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 12389.96 12500 12500 12500 12444 12571 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 66682.05 65279 64895 64217 63818 61200 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 109380.34 109616 109666 109775 109808 110196 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 386355.28 393160 393848 394581 395361 413305 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Mining 225875.02 226299 229125 225670 227033 240000 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 469052.00 471292 472280 473259 474116 481359 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Services 618824.75 626495 630061 633570 637030 679650 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 261028.96 258223 258609 259390 260286 281981 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 65207.89 65432 65429 65551 65559 68800 ZAR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 27.10 26.3 26.2 25.7 25 21 percent [+]
Employed Persons 9218000.00 9210933 9209029 9206208 9206170 9020000 [+]
Unemployed Persons 5873.00 5714 6049 5936 5899 5140 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.10 58.2 58.5 58.9 58.4 58.2 percent [+]
Labour Costs 155.50 161 164 166 168 199 Index Points [+]
Wages 18045.00 18506 18651 19059 19368 22561 ZAR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 15920.00 15600 15558 16438 16890 19408 ZAR/Month [+]
Population 54.96 56.01 56.25 56.49 56.74 59.53 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Living Wage Family 26400.00 26100 26100 26100 26100 26100 ZAR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 6880.00 6613 6855 6635 6835 6764 ZAR/Month [+]
Employment Rate 42.48 42.71 42.31 42.15 42.12 45.12 percent [+]
Wages Low Skilled 3650.00 3472 3409 3359 3318 3168 ZAR/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 53.70 52.71 52.71 52.17 51.5 51.51 percent [+]
Wages High Skilled 20100.00 20437 20473 20463 20465 20465 ZAR/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Inflation Rate 6.40 6.4 6.6 6.5 6 4.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 123.80 125 126 128 129 148 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 123.30 124 125 127 128 145 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 5.70 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 3.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices 128.10 131 133 135 137 162 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 6.60 7.4 7.1 7.4 7.6 4.3 percent [+]
Export Prices 145.60 152 152 153 153 154 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 143.10 145 146 146 146 146 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 11.70 12 11.5 11 10.9 7.1 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 115.20 114 115 114 114 119 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Interest Rate 7.00 7 7.25 7.25 7.25 6 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 7.36 7.52 7.52 7.52 7.34 6 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 224474.00 226293 230267 234295 238377 296976 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1465063.00 1509161 1540026 1571827 1604514 2105592 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2509308.00 2549731 2593765 2636921 2680047 3300029 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 3153449.00 3133710 3194060 3254939 3316420 4195536 ZAR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 4849769.00 4988600 5078665 5170228 5263327 6629850 ZAR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 47848.00 48170 48311 48610 48999 50645 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 3221984.00 3267674 3314728 3361113 3406480 3912506 ZAR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.20 5.8 5.8 6.6 6.6 5.4 percent [+]
Lending Rate 10.50 10.5 10.75 10.75 10.5 9.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 722138.00 771465 759364 738944 746720 977000 ZAR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Balance of Trade -4410.97 2155 -1771 1116 -10265 -1700 ZAR Million [+]
Exports 88188.35 91895 90763 93582 85456 99742 ZAR Million [+]
Imports 92599.32 89740 92534 92466 95721 101442 ZAR Million [+]
Current Account -134396.00 -162787 -142787 -186105 -206871 -105157 ZAR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.40 -3.9 -4.1 -4.1 -4.1 -2.9 percent [+]
External Debt 132434.00 135000 140000 145000 150000 166000 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1273734.00 1484126 1502395 1262776 1278553 1518528 [+]
Gold Reserves 125.25 126 127 127 128 131 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 2.00 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 1961.00 1725 1846 2012 2091 2318 ZAR Billion [+]
Terrorism Index 3.53 2.42 2.18 1.93 1.69 1.99 [+]
Weapons Sales 39.00 79.99 89.51 67.06 67.06 38.57 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 50.10 50.9 51.7 51.7 51.7 52 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.20 -4.3 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -4.1 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -3871.00 20100 -18100 28300 -3870 32600 ZAR Million [+]
Government Spending 634731.00 647400 649000 650000 657000 697000 ZAR Million [+]
Government Revenues 97229.00 145847 120466 127219 105214 1512702 ZAR Million [+]
Government Debt 47948.00 48800 49800 47800 48100 55800 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 101101.00 115685 124672 107703 95432 121440 ZAR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 3881.20 3895 3900 3904 3916 4013 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Business Confidence 38.00 44 40.7 39 42 45 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 48.30 49.9 50.8 51 50.9 51.8 [+]
Industrial Production 0.00 1.2 2.2 2.6 2 1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 1.50 -0.2 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.5 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 82.00 82.4 82 81.7 82.6 81.5 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -22705.00 -4561 -2651 -383 966 5842 ZAR Million [+]
Bankruptcies 172.00 128 174 157 159 159 Companies [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 46413.00 46982 47380 47286 47251 47272 [+]
Car Registrations 32738.00 29941 31789 28312 30548 31683 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 1.10 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.2 1 percent [+]
Corruption Index 44.00 44 45 45 45 48 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 61.00 61 61 61 70.28 57 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.47 4.39 4.42 4.42 4.42 4.53 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 47.00 49 48 48 48 45 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 74.00 75 72 72 72 69 [+]
Electricity Production 20712.00 20206 20826 21146 20800 20815 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Steel Production 534.00 539 547 548 549 549 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 3.40 -2 -0.8 -0.5 0.4 1.2 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -11.00 -13 -11 -8 3 1.6 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.60 0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.5 0.7 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.40 2 1.6 1.4 1.8 2.2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1857815.00 1867587 1875724 1884590 1894024 2045979 ZAR Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 2538686.00 2530000 2530000 2530000 2813302 3140000 ZAR Million [+]
Personal Savings -0.80 -0.6 -1 -1.5 -1.6 0.2 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 6.31 6.5 5.98 6.16 6 3.11 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 10.50 10.5 10.5 10.5 10 8.5 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 36.60 37 37.9 37.9 35.98 36 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 78.00 79 78.5 78.5 78.5 77 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.94 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.92 1.26 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Housing Index 526.89 512 510 505 511 530 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00 28 28 28 28 28 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 41.00 41 41 41 41 41 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 14.00 14 14 14 14 14 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 3.00 3 3 3 3 3 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 2.00 2 2 2 2 2 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for South Africa including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Africa economy. 12/4/2016