South Africa | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.5 1.3 1 1.5 2.1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 24.50 23.8 23.4 23 23.5 21.3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 6.30 7.5 7.8 8 7.9 4.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 7.00 7 7.25 7.25 7.25 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 2915.79 -2203 -3819 -4322 -4414 -4243 ZAR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 50.10 50.9 51.3 51.7 51.7 48.5 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Currency 14.64 14.6 14.74 14.88 15.03 8.59 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 10.16 10.36 10.67 11.18 11.68 15.24 percent [+]
Stock Market 51912.00 52300 50700 49100 48000 66700 points [+]
GDP Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.5 1.3 1 1.5 2.1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.60 0.5 0.9 1 1.2 3 percent [+]
GDP 350.09 358 361 363 363 410 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 3051488.00 3055742 3057714 3060626 3060626 3331769 ZAR Million [+]
Gross National Product 2919799.00 2944616 2986987 2948781 3001616 3133343 ZAR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 634274.00 636823 640202 639549 641220 645764 ZAR Million [+]
GDP per capita 6086.45 6094 6094 6094 6094 6108 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 12446.37 12503 12503 12503 12503 12499 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 61828.13 61541 61405 61273 61145 61196 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 105620.00 105892 105931 105870 105850 109227 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 378925.20 378277 378076 377387 377114 371452 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Mining 230676.55 231467 232004 232426 232791 240157 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 470656.00 472473 473179 473762 474231 472394 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Services 612940.00 617711 619620 621259 622650 625260 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 256097.45 255703 255432 255112 254748 245920 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 66748.84 66508 66397 66301 66182 68843 ZAR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 24.50 23.8 23.4 23 23.5 21.3 percent [+]
Employed Persons 8992000.00 9039817 9062338 9080459 9093407 9020683 [+]
Unemployed Persons 5193.00 5553 5500 5307 5569 5136 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 58.50 58.8 59 59.2 59.2 58.5 percent [+]
Labour Costs 146.50 153 155 157 159 189 Index Points [+]
Wages 17517.00 17955 17989 18560 18751 22584 ZAR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 15841.00 15499 15558 16438 16625 19408 ZAR/Month [+]
Population 54.00 54.35 54.69 55.03 55.32 60.33 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Employment Rate 44.16 44.38 44.44 44.58 44.59 45.12 percent [+]
Wages Low Skilled 3410.00 3260 3166 3105 3067 3000 ZAR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 19900.00 19471 19197 19021 18908 18708 ZAR/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Inflation Rate 6.30 7.5 7.8 8 7.9 4.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.80 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 120.20 122 123 125 126 148 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 120.60 122 123 125 126 147 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 5.40 6 6.2 5.9 5.9 3.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices 124.40 127 128 131 131 162 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 7.10 8 8.2 8.4 8.4 4.3 percent [+]
Export Prices 128.80 131 131 132 133 147 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 135.60 134 133 133 133 133 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 9.50 9.2 9.5 10.1 10.1 5.1 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 110.30 112 112 112 112 121 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Interest Rate 7.00 7 7.25 7.25 7.25 6 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 7.30 7.38 7.45 7.52 7.52 6 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 219341.00 221454 225717 230045 234441 309614 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1493081.00 1469287 1508824 1549391 1591022 2366773 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2459084.00 2506741 2559421 2607579 2654247 3431267 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 3075329.00 3159359 3250189 3342040 3435018 5029146 ZAR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 4857562.00 5064148 5196621 5331701 5469488 7930600 ZAR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 46770.00 47172 47243 47257 47260 47261 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 3156722.00 3217748 3278220 3337466 3395532 4140652 ZAR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 5.80 6.44 6.54 6.65 6.65 5.73 percent [+]
Lending Rate 10.50 10.5 10.75 10.75 10.5 8.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 760564.00 825781 833575 763528 763328 976568 ZAR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Balance of Trade 2915.79 -2203 -3819 -4322 -4414 -4243 ZAR Million [+]
Exports 96133.70 89611 88768 88836 88893 88926 ZAR Million [+]
Imports 93217.90 92755 92619 92665 92660 92656 ZAR Million [+]
Current Account -208204.00 -189383 -205887 -196551 -196105 -105157 ZAR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.40 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -1.5 percent [+]
External Debt 124070.00 138879 141808 144643 144643 166464 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1285698.00 1385582 1404214 1405414 1404503 1404356 [+]
Gold Reserves 125.22 125 125 125 125 125 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 3.00 3 3 3 3 3 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 1942.00 2526 2613 2579 2392 3295 ZAR Billion [+]
Terrorism Index 4.23 3.48 3.35 3.22 2.92 2.25 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 50.10 50.9 51.3 51.7 51.7 48.5 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.80 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3.1 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -18130.00 -22426 -17994 -18071 -18071 -11641 ZAR Million [+]
Government Spending 619683.00 636572 647201 657160 657160 696720 ZAR Million [+]
Government Revenues 118546.00 134527 114313 130678 110927 116754 ZAR Million [+]
Government Debt 40265.00 46824 47434 47756 47756 55845 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 136676.00 83116 97290 105594 107049 106526 ZAR Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Business Confidence 36.00 35.1 34.7 34.99 35.88 45 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 54.90 49.8 50.3 50.9 50.9 51.8 [+]
Industrial Production 1.90 -0.47 0.2 1.4 1.4 1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 1.30 -0.05 0 0.07 0.1 0.11 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 80.50 79.9 79.7 79.5 79.5 81.1 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -10919.00 -8430 -5263 -3618 -2497 2339 ZAR Million [+]
Bankruptcies 161.00 158 182 131 161 161 Companies [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 40390.00 45220 44036 44740 44642 44620 [+]
Car Registrations 30702.00 32797 32606 32622 32621 32621 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 91.60 90.9 90.77 90.67 90.66 94.3 Index Points [+]
Corruption Index 44.00 44 44 44 44 48 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 61.00 61 61 61 61 57 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.53 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 49.00 49 49 49 49 45 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 73.00 73 73 73 73 69 [+]
Electricity Production 19916.00 20919 20799 20608 20658 20706 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Steel Production 536.00 564 578 581 582 582 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -8.70 2.1 1.4 -0.22 -0.1 2.5 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -9.00 -5 1.5 4 4 1.6 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.50 0.2 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.10 3.94 3.93 3.93 3.93 3.93 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1872535.00 1879646 1885026 1888582 1891840 1926124 ZAR Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 2425723.00 2488210 2509889 2532567 2532567 3144833 ZAR Million [+]
Personal Savings -2.40 -1.71 -1.68 -1.59 -1.38 0.2 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 8.94 9.01 8.82 8.93 8.85 3.11 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 10.50 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 8.5 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 36.90 37.3 37.5 37.9 37.9 36 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 78.00 78.5 78.8 79 79 77 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.89 0.74 0.72 0.69 0.69 1.26 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Housing Index 502.31 508 510 512 512 530 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00 28 28 28 28 28 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 41.00 41 41 41 41 41 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 14.00 14 14 14 14 14 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 3.00 3 3 3 3 3 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 2.00 2 2 2 2 2 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for South Africa including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Africa economy. 5/3/2016