South Africa | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for South Africa including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Africa economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.30 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.1 2.1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 26.50 25.7 25 24.5 28.07 21 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 5.30 6 5.9 5.9 6 5.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 7.00 7 7 7 7 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 11435.19 1116 -10265 -6639 2108 -1700 ZAR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 50.10 51.7 51.7 51.7 50.12 52 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 12.89 13.72 13.85 14.26 14.12 16.3 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 8.50 8.94 9.03 9.12 9.2 10.62 percent [+]
Stock Market 54308.67 51900 51300 49800 50300 41900 points [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.30 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.1 2.1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.70 0.8 1 1.2 1.1 2.6 percent [+]
GDP 314.57 360 360 360 290 420 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 3084846.60 3060000 3101563 3110706 3120387 3226531 ZAR Million [+]
Gross National Product 3061822.00 3082632 3095931 3115962 3118893 3165973 ZAR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 612273.80 613272 614877 614018 615034 614827 ZAR Million [+]
GDP per capita 7585.80 6090 7593 7583 7583 7576 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 12393.26 12500 12392 12378 12376 12351 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 65470.02 65330 65192 65083 65211 61200 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 109316.14 109499 109564 109621 109702 110066 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 381498.22 381063 383003 385105 386765 401268 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Mining 223211.87 224268 225611 227238 224858 240000 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 475929.38 478367 479618 480551 481589 488712 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Services 620855.80 626332 629225 632116 634978 664690 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 264114.25 267117 268483 269621 270710 277527 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 64119.86 64465 64666 64738 64720 68800 ZAR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 26.50 25.7 25 24.5 28.07 21 percent [+]
Employed Persons 9690000.00 9716971 9709918 9740344 9728932 9020000 [+]
Unemployed Persons 5780.80 6006 5899 5800 6324 5140 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.20 59.9 59.8 60 60.2 61 percent [+]
Labour Costs 139.90 149 149 151 152 165 Index Points [+]
Wages 18502.00 18949 19170 19442 19657 22313 ZAR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 16830.00 16922 16890 17681 17531 19993 ZAR/Month [+]
Population 55.91 55.49 55.75 56.01 56.01 59.53 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Living Wage Family 10800.00 11259 11343 11314 11324 11321 ZAR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 7222.50 7067 7027 7001 6985 6954 ZAR/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 3650.00 3359 3318 3286 3261 3168 ZAR/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 50.90 52.17 51.5 51.81 51.67 51.51 percent [+]
Wages High Skilled 20100.00 20463 20465 20465 20465 20465 ZAR/Month [+]
Employment Rate 43.54 42.85 43.06 43.27 43.09 45.12 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 5.30 6 5.9 5.9 6 5.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.46 0.4 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 102.40 103 104 106 107 110 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 102.30 103 104 105 106 109 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 4.80 5.8 5.7 5.3 3.92 3.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices 101.30 135 137 139 101 144 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 5.20 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.1 4.8 percent [+]
Export Prices 146.00 145 145 145 145 145 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 138.10 135 135 135 135 135 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 6.70 8.4 8.2 8 7.9 7.1 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 100.90 102 103 104 105 118 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 101.80 114 114 113 103 119 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 7.00 7 7 7 7 6 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 7.34 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.3 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 230473.56 230602 234398 237670 240852 275702 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1603388.00 1645471 1680601 1715136 1750057 2126877 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2584117.00 2624740 2660564 2696070 2731334 3098745 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 3194490.00 3233398 3276404 3319030 3361278 3803402 ZAR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 4938998.00 5003029 5066644 5129801 5192504 5853175 ZAR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 46690.00 48610 48999 49144 46780 50645 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 3304992.00 3347922 3390243 3431595 3471974 3857864 ZAR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.20 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.03 5.4 percent [+]
Lending Rate 10.50 10.75 10.5 11 10.5 9.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 694256.00 738944 746720 783000 722021 977000 ZAR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 11435.19 1116 -10265 -6639 2108 -1700 ZAR Million [+]
Exports 101234.19 93582 85456 90804 93457 99742 ZAR Million [+]
Imports 89798.99 92466 95721 97443 89051 101442 ZAR Million [+]
Current Account -76438.00 -186105 -206871 -67818 -99249 -79349 ZAR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.30 -4.1 -4.1 -4.1 -2.83 -2.9 percent [+]
External Debt 142833.00 145000 150000 153000 142765 166000 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1180301.00 1323197 1278553 1340509 1360217 1518528 [+]
Gold Reserves 125.25 127 127 128 129 131 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 3.53 2.91 2.67 2.42 2.18 1.99 [+]
Weapons Sales 39.00 67.06 79.99 60.74 67.06 38.57 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 2.00 2 2 2 2 2 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 1873.00 1867 1866 1881 1878 1879 ZAR Billion [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 50.10 51.7 51.7 51.7 50.12 52 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.90 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -3.72 -4.1 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -3851.00 28300 -3870 26500 -8246 32600 ZAR Million [+]
Government Spending 634777.00 650000 657000 671000 646824 697000 ZAR Million [+]
Government Revenues 134799.00 127219 105214 147236 125984 1512702 ZAR Million [+]
Government Debt 55247.00 47800 48100 49500 57185 55800 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 138650.00 109846 95432 113502 109543 121440 ZAR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 3881.20 3895 3900 3904 3916 4013 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 40.00 39 42 45 39.84 45 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 44.70 53.7 54 54.5 54.7 55.9 [+]
Industrial Production 0.30 2.6 2 1.9 -0.66 1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.60 0.9 0.7 -0.2 0.11 0.5 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 81.50 81.7 82.6 81.9 81.29 81.5 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -16402.00 -1543 -1878 683 1636 5523 ZAR Million [+]
Bankruptcies 188.00 155 156 156 156 156 Companies [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 34956.00 43606 41255 42681 42463 42423 [+]
Car Registrations 22542.00 28312 30548 27831 27729 27701 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.90 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.13 1 percent [+]
Mining Production 15.50 -0.5 0.4 0.5 0.04 1.2 percent [+]
Steel Production 538.50 536 535 535 535 535 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.47 4.42 4.42 4.42 4.49 4.53 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 47.00 48 48 48 45 45 [+]
Composite Pmi 50.30 50.7 50.65 50.64 50.65 50.64 [+]
Corruption Index 45.00 45 45 45 45 48 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 64.00 61 68 60 69 57 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 74.00 72 72 72 73 69 [+]
Electricity Production 21295.00 21290 20949 20697 20842 20893 Gigawatt-hour [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -10.00 -8 3 2.2 -9.98 1.6 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.30 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.02 0.7 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 0.80 1.4 1.8 2.2 -0.17 2.2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1875986.00 1893631 1901049 1907487 1913126 1940290 ZAR Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 2626536.00 2530000 2686922 2660000 2723769 3140000 ZAR Million [+]
Personal Savings -0.50 -1.5 -1.6 -1.8 -1.49 0.2 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 4.95 5.13 4.96 7.51 4.99 3.11 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 10.50 10.5 10 10 10.5 8.5 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.00 0.69 0.99 0.95 0.99 1.26 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 34.70 37.9 32.94 37.5 32.33 36 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 74.40 78.5 78.5 78.5 70.61 77 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 544.47 505 511 517 653 530 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00 28 29.84 30.51 30.08 29.16 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 41 43.4 43.4 51.98 66.95 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 14.00 14 14 14 14 14 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 2.00 2.5 2.25 2 2 2 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 1.00 1.5 1.25 1 1 1 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 percent [+]