South Africa | Economic Forecasts | 2013-2015 Outlook

Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Markets Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Government Bond 10Y 8.23 Apr-14 8.18 May-14 8.5 9.19 9.5 7.98 8.98 7.96 7.49 [+]
Stock Market 48213.26 Apr-14 49036 May-14 46425 49533 51418 52667 54286 68746 80200 [+]
Currency 10.56 Apr-14 10.5 May-14 10.91 10.52 10.55 10.59 10.58 9.8 7.85 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
GDP Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
GDP Growth Rate 3.80 Dec-13 1.73 Mar-14 1.73 2.61 2.52 2.38 2.47 2.96 2.95 [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.00 Dec-13 1.9 Mar-14 1.9 1.89 1.89 1.92 1.93 2.92 2.92 [+]
GDP Constant Prices 2013305.00 Nov-13 2017875 Mar-14 2017875 2031576 2039370 2043856 2189019 2487792 3646620 [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 414071.00 Nov-13 415942 Mar-14 415942 419825 422483 424042 421807 418379 417391 [+]
Gross National Product 2047644.00 Nov-13 2058189 Mar-14 2058189 2064364 2062926 2060096 2190828 2532790 3734394 [+]
GDP 384.31 Dec-12 394 Dec-13 370 368 366 405 416 1817 34411 [+]
GDP per capita 6003.46 Dec-12 6095 Dec-13 6075 6085 6094 6101 10586 31288 593115 [+]
GDP per capita PPP 10959.74 Dec-11 10995 Dec-12 11760 11831 11898 11963 21075 65467 1278026 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Labour Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Unemployment Rate 24.10 Dec-13 24.17 Mar-14 24.17 24.13 23.97 23.83 24.4 7.67 8.93 [+]
Employed Persons 8495000.00 Dec-13 8425042 Mar-14 8425042 8410486 8426944 8452837 12500416 26771434 244030461 [+]
Labour Costs 351.90 Aug-13 357 Dec-13 360 364 365 365 347 341 336 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 57.10 Nov-13 57.93 Mar-14 57.93 58.96 59.26 59.33 57.35 55.85 56.04 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 Jan-14 60 Jun-14 60 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 Jan-14 60 Jun-14 60 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Unemployed Persons 4830.00 Nov-13 4959 Mar-14 4959 5127 5161 5153 4973 4996 5039 [+]
Wages 422676000.00 Nov-13 420876995 Mar-14 420876995 427099598 437827829 446446533 462799931 473265493 473177870 [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 54706000.00 Nov-13 53294244 Mar-14 53294244 52169453 54686464 56225160 57426166 56805730 56827443 [+]
Population 52.98 Dec-13 53.59 Dec-13 54.19 54.59 54.98 55.37 56.93 64.37 77.75 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Prices Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Inflation Rate 5.90 Feb-14 5.69 Mar-14 5.69 5.6 5.61 5.58 5.69 4.16 3.99 [+]
Consumer Price Index (CPI) 107.30 Feb-14 108 Mar-14 107 109 110 111 123 143 211 [+]
Export Prices 217.20 Nov-13 222 Mar-14 222 225 225 224 212 209 224 [+]
Import Prices 186.50 Nov-13 191 Mar-14 191 194 195 194 184 188 188 [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.10 Feb-14 0.43 Mar-14 0.43 0.61 0.76 0.47 0.44 4.04 3.74 [+]
Producer Prices 111.30 Feb-14 109 Mar-14 109 114 115 115 120 139 206 [+]
Producer Prices Change 7.74 Feb-14 7.12 Mar-14 7.12 7.79 8.62 5.35 0.08 1.92 11.15 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Money Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Interest Rate 5.50 Mar-14 5.5 Apr-14 5.5 5.77 5.81 6 7 5.32 5.41 [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 537104.00 Feb-14 550946 Mar-14 544444 561770 579297 587503 556919 536473 494685 [+]
Interbank Rate 5.38 Apr-14 5.5 May-14 4.51 5.52 5.81 6 7 6.78 8.74 [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2649069.00 Feb-14 2666182 Mar-14 2642626 2690164 2736646 2777689 2915347 2978834 2962755 [+]
Money Supply M0 181240.00 Mar-14 182345 Apr-14 185682 186683 190994 198697 226052 302338 481651 [+]
Money Supply M1 1123332.00 Feb-14 1144549 Mar-14 1152088 1170020 1194305 1216745 1387449 1998432 3790188 [+]
Money Supply M2 2057528.00 Feb-14 2081409 Mar-14 2093684 2127886 2184485 2236798 2548327 3178254 4733168 [+]
Money Supply M3 2535937.00 Feb-14 2552851 Mar-14 2539689 2564870 2595677 2615850 2879078 3441837 5135600 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Trade Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Current Account -178875.00 Nov-13 -192034 Mar-14 -192034 -192056 -192786 -193328 -203848 -191771 -191943 [+]
Balance of Trade 1719.97 Feb-14 -2089 Feb-14 -4534 -1412 -2605 3324 2394 4142 80350 [+]
Exports 83927.75 Feb-14 81456 Feb-14 87993 92516 93563 92855 144938 437940 8261000 [+]
Imports 82207.78 Feb-14 82862 Feb-14 92527 93928 96168 89531 142544 433798 8180650 [+]
External Debt 137095.00 Dec-13 135619 Mar-14 135619 136478 137514 137503 137280 135896 135783 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1283885.00 Oct-13 1293634 Nov-13 1289220 1240817 1325601 1429273 1437943 1438110 1438110 [+]
Current Account to GDP -5.80 Dec-13 -5.79 Jun-14 -5.69 -5.6 -5.53 -5.76 -5.33 -0.43 -0.05 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Government Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Credit Rating 57.44 [+]
Government Budget Value 12798.00 Feb-14 1443 Mar-14 1443 7583 3061 11843 12131 12053 12053 [+]
Government Spending 426992.00 Nov-13 426999 Mar-14 426999 427654 428131 428788 459503 526895 774219 [+]
Government Budget -4.70 Dec-13 -4.57 Jun-14 -4.62 -4.56 -4.51 -4.67 -4.41 -2.88 -2.88 [+]
Government Debt To GDP 39.90 Dec-12 41.99 Dec-13 40.76 40.86 40.94 41.01 41.19 41.35 41.36 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Business Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Business Confidence 41.00 Mar-14 38.88 Jun-14 39.66 38.88 35.42 32.19 23.53 58.6 70.27 [+]
Bankruptcies 171.00 Feb-14 189 Mar-14 148 117 161 85.86 91.46 63.2 43.29 [+]
Industrial Production 1.40 Feb-14 1.09 Mar-14 1.09 1.41 0.93 1.75 1.78 3.86 3.96 [+]
Capacity Utilization 82.60 Nov-13 82 Mar-14 82 81.99 82.04 82.06 81.72 82.17 81.72 [+]
Car Registrations 36788.00 Mar-14 34144 Apr-14 39115 38261 40122 36502 39978 45406 67488 [+]
Changes in Inventories -22304.00 Nov-13 -10492 Mar-14 -10492 -11259 -12678 -12990 -9410 -10255 -10265 [+]
Industrial Production Mom -1.90 Feb-14 -0.35 Mar-14 -0.35 -0.03 0.08 -0.19 0.23 2.58 4.03 [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 50.30 Mar-14 50.29 Apr-14 49.11 53.4 52.77 52.77 52.51 52.62 52.62 [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 55189.00 Mar-14 44759 Apr-14 56077 49010 50542 41841 37820 23478 11045 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Consumer Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Consumer Confidence -6.00 Mar-14 -5.82 Mar-14 -5.82 -6.88 -7.47 -8.32 -7.47 -0.29 -0.05 [+]
Bank Lending Rate 9.00 Apr-14 8.97 May-14 8.41 9.07 9.26 9.55 10.6 8.99 8.98 [+]
Consumer Spending 1335512.00 Nov-13 1344606 Mar-14 1344606 1350317 1360675 1365037 1466438 1613370 2467387 [+]
Disposable Personal Income 2112178.00 Nov-13 2143402 Mar-14 2143402 2198052 2209784 2266417 2565866 3403306 3445299 [+]
Personal Savings -983.00 Nov-13 -1855 Mar-14 -1855 -58.03 -841 -1516 -1466 -1042 -714 [+]
Private Sector Credit 8.67 Feb-14 6.37 Feb-14 6.71 6.44 6.25 6.52 7.22 6.94 6.91 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.20 Feb-14 0.77 Feb-14 1.18 1.55 1.21 1.29 1.26 3.97 4.02 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.20 Feb-14 4 Feb-14 3.67 4.36 4.47 4.65 4.17 3.99 4.28 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Taxes Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Social Security Rate 3.00 Jan-14 3 Jun-14 3 3 3 3 3 3 [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00 Jan-14 1 Jun-14 1 1 1 1 1 1 [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 2.00 Jan-14 2 Jun-14 2 2 2 2 2 2 [+]
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00 Jan-14 28 Jun-14 22 28 28 28 28 28 28 [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 40.00 Jan-14 40 Dec-14 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 [+]
Sales Tax Rate 14.00 Jan-14 14 Jun-14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 [+]

Trading Economics forecasts are driven by our own analysts’ expectations and technically projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. First, we model the past behaviour of a time series by using vast amounts of historical data. Then, we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account, our own analyst’s assessments and future expectations. While we work hard to make our predictions accurate, please note that past performance of our forecast model is not necessarily indicative of future results. Moreover, please take into account that because countries publish their data releases in different dates and sometimes with significant delays we may have to project past data which has already some time but was not yet released by official sources. If you have any question please email us at contact@tradingeconomics.com



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South Africa Posts Trade Surplus in February  
South African trade balance turned into a ZAR 1.72 billion surplus in February of 2014, after a large ZAR 17 billion gap in January, as exports surged 7.9 percent over the previous month and imports fell sharply by 13.2 percent.
South Africa Leaves Rate on Hold  
At its March 27th, 2014 meeting, South African Reserve Bank left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.5 percent, as growth outlook remains subdued while inflation risks are on the upside. The central bank hinted possible rate hikes in the medium-run.
South Africa Inflation Rate Edges Up in February  
South African annual consumer prices accelerated for the third straight month to 5.9 percent in February of 2014, up from 5.8 percent in the previous month, on higher health, fuel and petrol cost.
South Africa Reports Trade Deficit in January  
South Africa trade gap reached ZAR17.06 billion in January of 2014 as imports surged and exports remained virtually unchanged.
South African GDP Growth Accelerates in Q4  
South African economic growth quickened to a better-than-expected annualized rate of 3.8 percent over the previous quarter, as both mining and manufacturing sectors grew at double-digit rates. In 2013, the economy grew a meager 1.9 percent.
South Africa GDP Growth Beats Expectations in Q4  
In the last quarter of 2013, South African GDP growth accelerated to 2 percent over a year earlier, beating market expectations and up from a revised 1.7 percent expansion in the previous quarter mainly due to a surge in the mining sector.
South Africa Inflation Rate Rises in January  
South African annual inflation rate accelerated to 5.8 percent in January of 2014 from 5.4 percent in December as rand’s depreciation against the dollar pushed food and fuel costs up.
South Africa Unemployment Rate Falls in Q4 2013  
In the last quarter of 2013, South African jobless rate slowed for the second straight quarter to 24.1 percent, from a revised 24.5 percent in the previous period. The expanded definition of unemployment, including people who stopped looking for work, was recorded at 34 percent.
South Africa Reports Trade Surplus in December  
In December of 2013, South African trade balance turned into a surplus for the second straight month and reached ZAR 2.78 billion, breaking a two-year cycle of persistent trade deficit. Since September of 2013, trade figures include trade with regional neighbors Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland.
Reserve Bank of South Africa Raises Rate by 50bps  
At its January 29th meeting, Reserve Bank of South Africa decided to raise the repurchase rate by 50 bps to 5.5 percent. It is the first rate hike in nearly six years, aiming to protect the rand and curb expected inflationary pressures.
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This page includes economic forecasts for South Africa. 4/16/2014