Thailand | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Thailand including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Thailand economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.5 0.9 1 0.6 0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 1.30 1.1 1.12 1.15 1.17 1.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.76 1 2 2.37 2.26 2.6 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.75 1.75 2.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 1616.92 1220 2791 414 3445 135 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 44.40 52 52 52 47 46 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 34.59 34.63 34.98 36 35.66 41.15 [+]
Stock Market 993.98 986 977 947 957 797 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.75 2.75 2.77 2.8 2.83 3.26 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.5 0.9 1 0.6 0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.00 3.2 3.1 3.5 3 3 percent [+]
GDP 395.17 420 420 420 436 448 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 2461131.00 2515874 2527317 2547271 2577239 2783469 THB Million [+]
Gross National Product 4839.07 5600 5600 5600 5800 6300 THB Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 619914.00 619631 606996 631959 658510 750325 THB Million [+]
GDP per capita 5775.10 5794 5832 5870 5891 6160 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 15346.65 15337 15369 15402 15455 15797 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 122622.00 122000 123627 123000 123500 127000 THB Million [+]
GDP From Construction 77237.00 78000 74642 85900 82000 100200 THB Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 690286.00 695000 709445 702000 710000 722000 THB Million [+]
GDP From Mining 59105.00 62000 64821 61700 61800 65500 THB Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 128707.00 130000 127012 139000 138000 151000 THB Million [+]
GDP From Transport 250685.00 255000 260640 261000 252000 332000 THB Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 80898.00 87900 80916 91700 90100 111000 THB Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 1.30 1.1 1.12 1.15 1.17 1.5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 37460.52 38100 37577 38700 38200 39500 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 495.67 432 345 350 418 458 Thousand [+]
Job Vacancies 37491.00 30500 34266 34148 33100 42022 [+]
Wages 13963.14 14047 14134 14200 14100 14800 THB/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 12721.57 12698 12729 12928 12800 13775 THB/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 305.00 305 305 305 340 420 THB/Day [+]
Population 67.96 68.3 68.75 69.2 69.2 75.64 Million [+]
Labour Costs 102.66 105 104 103 104 104 Index Points [+]
Productivity 113.30 109 105 109 116 111 Index Points [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 5.20 4.8 4.5 3.8 5.3 4.8 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 0.76 1 2 2.37 2.26 2.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.46 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.33 109 109 110 110 120 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 101.11 108 96.8 108 109 111 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.62 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.58 1.5 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 146.13 148 154 149 146 163 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 103.00 106 107 108 109 124 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 107.78 116 118 121 123 138 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 97.47 99.5 98.9 101 102 114 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.68 2 0.71 2.2 2.5 2.85 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 100.41 97.5 98.3 99.2 100 108 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.75 1.75 2.25 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 1330188.00 138000 1400000 1410000 1420000 1550000 THB Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1872.40 1848 1903 1973 1980 2300 THB Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 18397.73 19100 18932 19600 19800 22700 THB Billion [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 17836495.00 18020675 18156009 18291227 18425450 19834876 THB Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 180869.19 185000 183290 185000 187000 200000 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 3906358.00 3946933 3975447 3999512 4019823 4112932 THB Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 1.40 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.76 2 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.59 1.58 1.57 1.72 1.68 2.25 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 6972536.00 7150000 7160000 7042829 7043125 7850000 THB Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 1616.92 1220 2791 414 3445 135 USD Million [+]
Exports 20887.60 18695 20044 17988 21089 20045 USD Million [+]
Imports 19270.00 17474 17253 17575 17643 18910 USD Million [+]
Current Account 2575.69 4000 3200 4400 4900 5000 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 8.10 5.8 5.8 5.8 4.6 3.89 percent [+]
External Debt 131362.47 129233 135538 137000 143000 139000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 110.58 110 110 110 110 110 Index Points [+]
Tourist Arrivals 3007830.00 2676586 2937235 3241268 3829464 3635200 [+]
Gold Reserves 152.41 152 152 152 152 152 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 6.71 7.25 6.77 7.25 7.1 6.8 [+]
Remittances 10672.00 10522 11336 13281 12100 22000 THB Billion [+]
Crude Oil Production 247.00 255 220 210 210 250 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 52080.09 24000 20000 -3580 18300 24000 THB Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 44.40 52 52 52 47 46 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.50 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.8 -3 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -93003.00 -77032 -59052 -35411 -26147 -27902 THB Million [+]
Government Spending 394969.00 381501 358283 399518 406750 425240 THB Million [+]
Government Revenues 176550.00 189743 188826 188000 187743 251000 THB Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 169651.00 206781 199493 199000 195112 206000 THB Million [+]
Military Expenditure 6100.90 6559 6559 6559 6836 7991 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 52.60 49.9 51.4 50.5 51 52 [+]
Industrial Production -0.53 1.1 1.4 3.2 0.04 1.38 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 12.13 -0.1 1.8 0.7 1.4 0.6 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 60.26 66.8 66.3 67 66.2 68.9 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 43510.00 -70200 -20000 19300 10780 29400 THB Million [+]
Car Registrations 40608.00 33767 31000 26777 33102 38500 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 156.87 161 162 163 164 173 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 50.20 48.9 49.6 50.6 51.1 51.1 [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 84801.00 64728 66187 92069 73155 119710 [+]
Cement Production 3899.66 3686 3615 3629 3642 3646 Thousands of Ton [+]
Car Production 152261.00 168000 159000 140250 193000 180000 [+]
Coincident Index 129.39 130 132 132 134 145 Index Points [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.64 4.64 4.64 4.64 4.8 5 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 34.00 34 34 34 32 27 [+]
Corruption Index 35.00 40 36 41 42 43 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 101.00 82 80 80 78 77 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 46.00 43 43 43 70 35 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 76.80 74.6 75.8 77 79 78 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.50 1.6 4.1 3.8 3.4 5.1 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1265331.00 1290000 1290000 1300000 1290000 1420000 THB Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 7550115.40 7770074 7831168 7892262 7925507 8647157 THB Million [+]
Personal Savings 8.70 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.62 8.7 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 7.10 7.1 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.5 percent [+]
Personal Spending 0.10 -0.3 -0.2 1.1 0.26 1.3 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 3892719.00 3985545 4020690 4055286 4079863 3999071 THB Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.01 1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.4 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 71.20 73.7 74 71.94 71.81 76.8 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 128.60 133 134 135 136 140 Index points [+]
Housing Starts 4626.00 6500 13400 12600 12100 14900 [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20.02 20.03 20.04 20.04 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 7.00 7 7 7 7 7 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]