Turkish Business Morale Highest in 5 Months

Turkey’s manufacturing industry confidence index fell to 101 in March 2026, retreating from an eleven-month high of 104.1 in the previous month. The latest reading also marked the lowest level since December, driven by broad-based decline across components, particularly expectations for output over the next three months (117 vs 120.4 in February). Export order expectations also eased to 114.3 from 115.6, while anticipated total orders slipped to 101.2 from 103.9, pointing to moderating demand prospects. Labor market sentiment weakened slightly, with employment expectations edging down to 102.8 from 103.5. At the same time, firms turned more cautious on investment, as expectations for fixed investment expenditure declined to 105.0 from 108.5. Current conditions also softened, with total orders falling to 84.3 from 87.9 and stocks of finished goods decreasing to 98.4 from 100.7. Meanwhile, sentiment on the general business situation dropped notably to 84.8 from 92.5.

Turkey’s manufacturing industry confidence index rose to 104.1 in February 2026, its highest level since March 2025, up from 101.6 in January. Most subcomponents improved, led by the expected volume of output over the next three months, which jumped to 120.4 from 111.4. Employment expectations also rose (103.5 vs 102.6), alongside stronger assessments of order books: current orders increased to 87.9 from 86.1, while expectations for orders over the next three months climbed to 103.9 from 102.1. Export order expectations strengthened as well (115.6 vs 107.8), and stocks of finished goods edged up slightly (100.7 vs 100.5), pointing to stable inventory conditions. Sentiment toward fixed investment expenditure also improved (108.5 vs 107.8). Meanwhile, views on the general business situation eased (92.5 vs 94.1), reflecting cautious optimism amid lingering uncertainties.

Turkey’s manufacturing industry confidence index climbed to 101.6 in January 2026 from 100.8 in the previous month, pointing to a modest improvement in overall sentiment across the sector. This marked the highest reading since April last year, driven by firmer production and demand expectations, with the volume of output over the next three months rising to 111.4 from 110.0 in December, while expectations for employment also strengthened (102.6 vs 101.4). Assessments of order books showed mixed signals, as the total amount of current orders remained weak (86.1 vs 86.3), while expectations improved for orders over the next three months (102.1 vs 100.8) and export orders (107.8 vs 110.0). Firms also reported a higher stock of finished goods (100.5 vs 99.4), suggesting easing inventory pressures. Additionally, sentiment toward fixed investment expenditure firmed notably (107.8 vs 105.6), and views on the general business situation improved (94.1 vs 92.9).