Turkey | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.3 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 11.10 10.7 10.5 10.3 11 7.3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 7.46 9.3 8.7 8.5 8.2 4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 7.50 7.5 7.25 7 7.5 6.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -4950.00 -4921 -5148 -5368 -5468 -9379 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 32.90 32.3 32 31.7 31.5 28.5 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Currency 2.80 2.89 2.91 2.94 2.97 1.7 [+]
Stock Market 85434.00 84500 81900 79400 77600 108000 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 9.05 9.9 10.2 10.68 11.17 14.57 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.3 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.70 3.1 2.9 3 3.2 4.2 percent [+]
GDP 798.43 812 814 829 831 850 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 34077275.90 36617515 37498869 38046986 38541237 57174506 TRY THO [+]
Gross National Product 33641401.30 31718689 36878382 33229049 34698549 39772488 TRY THO [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 8206102.50 7742355 7814631 7931833 7964631 8414341 TRY THO [+]
GDP per capita 8871.91 8977 8984 8996 9002 9866 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 18884.02 19336 19437 19592 19652 19554 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 2834226.00 2251396 2637805 2637807 2637807 2637807 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Construction 1936707.70 1993891 1984627 1952020 1952020 2124620 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 8237850.10 8237130 7915193 8236414 7915908 8122713 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Mining 209735.10 178678 247260 201330 201330 215513 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Public Administration 1002092.73 921261 1007355 1015881 946169 1064758 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Transport 4170811.00 4253679 3985353 4274045 4149785 4128062 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Utilities 713732.00 713691 632348 713651 632388 693466 TRY THO [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 11.10 10.7 10.5 10.3 11 7.3 percent [+]
Employed Persons 26275.00 27045 27119 27391 27391 31584 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 3290.00 3172 3021 2924 2924 2354 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 51.60 52.3 53.4 54.1 55 64 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.10 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.8 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 19.20 19.1 18.9 18.7 18.5 15.3 percent [+]
Labour Costs 177.38 184 188 193 196 254 Index Points [+]
Wages 1512.00 1966 1999 2032 2135 3214 TRY/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 217.60 219 221 224 227 287 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 1647.00 1647 1647 1647 1647 1925 TRY/Month [+]
Population 78.74 79.12 79.37 79.62 79.84 82.85 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58 58 58 58 58 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Part Time Employment 2501.70 2354 2368 2376 2382 3637 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 46.40 46.5 46.6 46.8 45 56 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 23441.20 24455 24482 24536 24589 26983 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Inflation Rate 7.46 9.3 8.7 8.5 8.2 4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.04 0.34 0.63 0.58 0.71 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 274.27 283 288 293 293 354 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 104.85 107 109 112 121 149 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 9.50 9.7 9.8 9.4 12.33 4.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 1487.87 1507 1536 1576 1616 1832 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 251.17 257 266 274 280 336 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.80 3.9 4.2 3.8 3.5 2.7 percent [+]
Export Prices 91.60 99.64 92.64 95.45 95.45 110 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 79.82 82.1 79.6 81.2 81.2 104 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 4.58 4.2 5.3 6.4 6.6 4.2 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 250.57 252 253 254 256 287 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 233.25 237 241 245 248 301 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Interest Rate 7.50 7.5 7.25 7 7.5 6.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 10.36 10.5 10.5 10.5 12.6 8 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 315689481.40 331971055 347157529 363039425 379648493 742735935 TRY Thousand [+]
Money Supply M2 1231381379.10 1310498628 1379788700 1439079715 1513784515 2637170137 TRY Thousand [+]
Money Supply M3 1276721483.60 1339638350 1416243044 1481749749 1563244223 2482958227 TRY Thousand [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 131926.90 133533 131678 131663 131660 131659 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 2297592362.00 2349639375 2385611508 2398550140 2420473398 2539523055 TRY Thousand [+]
Loans to Private Sector 771155378.00 785568507 815266893 866157729 884701201 1302561095 TRY Thousand [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 16.77 16.44 16.32 16.04 15.96 9 percent [+]
Lending Rate 10.00 10 9.75 9.5 11.75 8 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 474020660.00 509021616 527687816 544062354 564563214 874748363 TRY Thousand [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Balance of Trade -4950.00 -4921 -5148 -5368 -5468 -9379 USD Million [+]
Exports 12406.08 11741 10259 9457 9457 11450 USD Million [+]
Imports 15571.17 15340 15322 15346 15356 15360 USD Million [+]
Current Account -1785.00 -2336 -2902 -3836 -2954 -358 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.50 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -2.8 percent [+]
External Debt 398038.00 412478 415335 416668 418132 468866 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 114.76 111 109 109 108 113 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -1093.00 2110 1863 1830 1850 1846 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 12749.00 13772 13919 14287 14406 13300 USD Million [+]
Remittances 45.00 55.87 56.64 55.56 55.45 55.59 USD Million [+]
Tourism Revenues 1389.00 2352 3300 1243 1243 1874 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1652511.00 4208353 4039093 1724263 1956643 2158941 [+]
Gold Reserves 515.52 518 521 523 525 538 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 5.74 5.74 5.74 5.74 5.74 5.74 [+]
Crude Oil Production 49.00 50 50 50 50 50 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 32.90 32.3 32 31.7 31.5 28.5 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.20 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -0.4 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -4564500.00 -2626487 -2308543 -3839537 -3839537 -656799 TRY THO [+]
Government Spending 4661132.80 3489431 3633811 4470206 3820206 5873685 TRY THO [+]
Government Revenues 38751806.00 36955173 37236996 37621124 37694845 37651595 TRY THO [+]
Government Debt 683465.00 693167 703370 709804 714694 800394 TRY Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 43316306.00 40006970 39890224 40046939 40086111 40076021 TRY THO [+]
Asylum Applications 8862.00 10213 12248 15471 15471 6453 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Business Confidence 110.10 105 104 106 103 100 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 49.20 50.89 51.11 51.6 51.6 51 [+]
Industrial Production 5.80 2.88 3.27 2.8 3.1 2.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 1.10 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.5 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 6.20 2.7 3.5 3.41 3.53 1 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 75.30 74.51 76.42 75.89 75.85 79 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -1120974.60 -38025 946170 -1033004 -354439 -802304 TRY THO [+]
Bankruptcies 780.00 997 969 1544 1115 757 Companies [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 82948.00 98174 75341 74879 75303 75313 [+]
Car Production 77051.00 70017 70577 70542 70543 70543 Units [+]
Car Registrations 68178.00 85947 102867 89905 103262 91631 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 239.69 246 254 257 257 308 Index Points [+]
Mining Production 7.70 3.5 2.2 4.1 5.3 1.85 percent [+]
Steel Production 2729.00 2643 2617 2624 2624 2624 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.37 4.37 4.37 4.37 4.37 4.47 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 51.00 51 51 51 51 46 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 55.00 55 55 55 55 51 [+]
Electricity Production 20672.00 22464 21390 21890 21707 21745 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 42.00 42 42 42 42 45.36 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 66.00 66 66 66 66 62 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 68.50 74 77 79 76.01 70 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 3.60 0.63 0.75 0.98 0.98 0.56 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 7.90 2.81 3.42 2.74 2.74 1.11 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 22766889.80 22957064 23174674 23347203 22747203 27756252 TRY THO [+]
Consumer Credit 384270092.00 393053962 396462342 401970548 405970548 603126941 TRY THO [+]
Private Sector Credit 1272811917.00 1325946923 1357135404 1375365111 1397429257 1783475186 TRY Thousand [+]
Economic Optimism Index 78.27 83 87 92 104 100 Index points [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 21.30 21.6 21.7 22 22.1 36 percent of GDP [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.54 1.51 1.47 1.45 1.48 1.84 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Construction Output 1.50 2.78 1.64 1.59 1.55 1.56 percent [+]
Housing Index 202.32 206 210 214 216 254 Index points [+]
New Home Sales 52374.00 50419 50622 50918 50916 50900 units [+]
Building Permits 105925.00 76623 78685 83682 83682 94684 [+]
Existing Home Sales 64831.00 57132 54687 54533 54632 54169 units [+]
Housing Starts 12822.00 8637 9872 10556 10875 14556 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 67.30 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.3 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 37.50 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.50 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Turkey including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Turkey economy. 4/29/2016