Turkey | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate -2.70 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.3 1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 12.10 11.9 10.4 11.4 10.5 10.9 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 9.22 8.6 8.8 8.5 8 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 8.00 8.25 8.25 8.25 8 5.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -5598.00 -5500 -4200 -4692 -7290 -2910 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 32.90 31.5 31.2 35.32 30.5 28.5 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 3.61 3.62 3.66 3.69 3.73 4.26 [+]
Stock Market 88258.45 76000 75200 74400 73700 62000 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 10.54 11.4 11.52 11.63 11.3 13.42 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate -2.70 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.3 1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate -1.80 1.8 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.8 percent [+]
GDP 717.88 734 739 736 748 776 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 33061048.10 36600000 32600000 35500000 39700000 51200000 TRY THO [+]
Gross National Product 31671243.40 30800000 31400000 37400000 34800000 39800000 TRY THO [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 8271132.40 7120000 8030000 7920000 8590000 9110000 TRY THO [+]
GDP per capita 11522.71 11700 11750 11667 12050 12660 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 18956.27 20700 21400 19496 22000 24100 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 2337513.00 1482000 1277000 6654000 3124000 3478000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Construction 2040371.70 1890000 2050000 2080000 2070000 2340000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 8535937.00 8250000 8470000 7660000 8730000 9060000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Mining 213551.90 169000 215000 259000 227000 246000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Public Administration 918756.75 980000 970000 1050000 1080000 1180000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Transport 4095462.00 3980000 4150000 4270000 4420000 4930000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Utilities 587421.00 499000 567000 617000 785000 873000 TRY THO [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 12.10 11.9 10.4 11.4 10.5 10.9 percent [+]
Employed Persons 27067.00 26900 27300 27300 27500 30600 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 3175.00 3010 2880 3040 3080 3120 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 52.50 53.6 54.1 52.56 56 58.2 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.20 2.3 2.3 2.15 2.3 2.5 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 19.90 18.4 17.5 20.14 18.6 16.6 percent [+]
Labour Costs 219.04 212 217 225 205 254 Index Points [+]
Wages 1512.00 2050 2090 2130 2170 3210 TRY/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 244.82 261 270 275 281 336 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 1777.50 1778 1778 1778 1778 1930 TRY/Month [+]
Population 79.81 78.89 79.14 79.4 79.66 83.34 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58 58 58 58 58 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Living Wage Family 2407.40 2340 2321 2315 2314 2313 TRY/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1656.70 1605 1582 1571 1565 1561 TRY/Month [+]
Part Time Employment 2200.80 2950 2880 2510 2740 3640 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 46.30 47.4 47.6 46.23 48 54 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 24536.30 24100 25100 24700 24300 26900 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 9.22 8.6 8.8 8.5 8 3.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 2.46 0.6 0.5 0.82 0.5 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 299.74 297 301 314 319 383 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 111.97 115 116 117 121 141 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 8.20 9.4 8.7 8.97 7.4 3.6 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 1590.79 1672 1712 1686 1698 1852 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 284.99 292 301 312 319 366 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 13.69 10.2 9.6 8.9 7.5 3.4 percent [+]
Export Prices 91.43 91.4 95.6 97.4 102 110 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 82.99 92.1 86.7 86.5 86.3 104 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 7.77 7.8 7.4 6.8 6.2 3.6 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 285.22 264 267 270 273 308 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 110.28 119 123 116 130 158 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 8.00 8.25 8.25 8.25 8 5.75 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 11.27 8.8 8.6 12 8.2 6.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 376726650.20 382000000 401000000 416337503 453000000 816000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Money Supply M2 1434420039.00 1526000000 1599000000 1573300858 1766000000 2637000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Money Supply M3 1478625197.00 1562000000 1622000000 1617834230 1794000000 2673000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 129554.90 127419 127419 127484 127499 127501 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 2623047430.00 2783000000 2896000000 2939088596 3120000000 5109000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Loans to Private Sector 890830186.00 891000000 918000000 1000130416 978000000 1278000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 14.92 16.14 16.04 15.8 15.23 9 percent [+]
Lending Rate 9.25 8 7.5 7 7 5.25 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 192.12 198 199 199 200 202 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 577680947.00 556000000 571000000 586356799 590000000 875000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Foreign Stock Investment 39820.00 39872 39872 39872 39872 39872 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -5598.00 -5500 -4200 -4692 -7290 -2910 USD Million [+]
Exports 12807.19 11500 10600 10500 10400 18000 USD Million [+]
Imports 18405.22 17000 14800 16686 17700 20900 USD Million [+]
Current Account -4268.00 -3550 -3240 -3050 -2130 -358 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.50 -3.7 -4.4 -4.4 -4.4 -2.8 percent [+]
External Debt 416732.00 412000 416000 420176 424000 469000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 110.17 108 109 110 111 117 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 2304.00 -2700 -1500 1775 -6120 4740 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 16800.00 16900 16700 16000 15000 16500 USD Million [+]
Remittances 52.00 51.01 51.03 51.04 51.02 51.02 USD Million [+]
Tourism Revenues 1142.10 1260 2900 1426 1120 1770 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1302157.00 1630000 4080000 2747784 1240000 1220000 [+]
Gold Reserves 442.13 410 396 381 370 292 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 6.74 5.74 5.74 6.21 5.74 5.74 [+]
Weapons Sales 291.00 315 315 315 325 414 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 49.00 50 50 48.87 50 50 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 32.90 31.5 31.2 35.32 30.5 28.5 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.20 -1.3 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -0.4 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 13023775.00 -1000000 -2500000 3126353 -17700000 -1680000 TRY THO [+]
Government Spending 4081536.20 3620000 3740000 3790000 3940000 5870000 TRY THO [+]
Government Revenues 57090667.00 39200000 38900000 44839726 40500000 42900000 TRY THO [+]
Government Debt 800206.00 736000 742000 890525 766000 825000 TRY Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 44066892.00 40200000 36400000 44006237 58200000 59700000 TRY THO [+]
Military Expenditure 17668.90 17866 17819 17772 17775 17664 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 8236.00 17894 14225 7863 12300 6450 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 105.30 105 95.4 97.2 100 104 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 48.70 51.9 51.7 48.64 53.4 51 [+]
Industrial Production 1.30 3.8 3.4 1.48 3.1 2.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.20 0.8 0.6 0.42 0.9 0.5 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.30 3.2 2.8 1.3 2.5 1 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 75.40 74.6 75.9 75.58 76.4 78 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -6132.90 -18000 -95000 76000 -921000 -739000 TRY THO [+]
Bankruptcies 2142.00 778 985 1253 1900 1710 Companies [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 35323.00 84800 94500 68200 162000 169000 [+]
Car Production 93683.00 80100 84600 71500 79900 87000 Units [+]
Car Registrations 101375.00 103000 117500 88700 130000 135000 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 3.65 4.2 3.4 -5.25 5.5 4.4 percent [+]
Mining Production -7.50 2.5 2.2 -2.66 2.1 2 percent [+]
Steel Production 2930.19 2750 2820 2880 2710 2730 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.38 4.39 4.47 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 55.00 51 50 50 50 47 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 69.00 54 54 64.58 54 51 [+]
Electricity Production 24654.00 21900 22600 21900 23800 24700 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 42.00 42 43 43 43 46 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 75.00 65 65 64.84 65 62 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 65.70 66.47 69.85 66.34 74.55 85.12 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.80 0.5 0.4 0.34 0.8 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY -2.70 3.2 3 -2.58 2.7 1.9 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 22104317.10 23200000 23300000 24000000 23900000 27800000 TRY THO [+]
Consumer Credit 424551290.00 417000000 429000000 449621995 454000000 603000000 TRY THO [+]
Private Sector Credit 1423464505.00 1405000000 1435000000 1629055508 1485000000 1783000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Economic Optimism Index 85.70 71.4 75.6 82.3 85 101 Index points [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 21.10 22.4 23.4 21.03 25 36 percent of GDP [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.43 1.42 1.44 1.39 1.51 1.84 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Construction Output -0.30 6.2 5.7 -13.91 3.5 2.5 percent [+]
Housing Index 224.10 228 234 234 249 340 Index points [+]
New Home Sales 63467.00 53600 51400 52979 82500 89400 units [+]
Building Permits 122143.00 89700 83400 67600 102000 106000 [+]
Existing Home Sales 69188.00 65000 59000 49800 70300 78500 units [+]
Housing Starts 13079.00 9650 9720 7160 11600 14600 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 60.70 60.59 60.59 60.59 60.59 60.56 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 37.50 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.50 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Turkey including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Turkey economy. 2/26/2017