Turkey | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.3 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 9.40 10.2 10.7 10.5 9.4 10.9 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 8.79 8.7 8.4 8.5 8.2 5.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 7.50 7.5 7.25 7.25 7 4.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -6559.00 -4200 -6040 -5500 -4200 -2910 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 32.90 32 31.7 31.5 31.2 28.5 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Currency 2.94 2.97 3 3.03 3.06 3.53 [+]
Stock Market 76399.00 77200 76400 75600 74800 62400 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 9.50 9.72 9.81 9.91 10 11.54 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.3 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.80 4.4 3.7 3.8 3.5 4 percent [+]
GDP 718.22 725 730 734 739 796 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 31679387.70 37400000 36600000 32600000 35500000 51200000 TRY THO [+]
Gross National Product 30372669.80 36900000 34200000 30800000 29700000 39800000 TRY THO [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 7041932.60 7810000 7950000 7120000 7930000 8410000 TRY THO [+]
GDP per capita 11524.51 11600 11650 11700 11750 12660 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 18958.62 19500 20200 20700 21400 24100 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 1447094.00 3800000 1510000 1420000 1280000 309000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Construction 1826963.50 1950000 1950000 1950000 1950000 2120000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 8178383.00 8180000 8470000 8180000 8470000 8120000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Mining 164214.50 247527 201000 201000 201000 216000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Public Administration 955860.46 1008336 1028100 983114 975619 1060000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Transport 3879119.00 3990000 4350000 4370000 4410000 4130000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Utilities 478320.00 478000 567000 478000 567000 693000 TRY THO [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.40 10.2 10.7 10.5 9.4 10.9 percent [+]
Employed Persons 27867.00 27100 26600 26900 27300 30600 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 2895.00 3020 3000 2980 2780 2750 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 52.10 52.6 52.8 53.6 54.1 58.2 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.00 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.8 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 17.40 18.2 19 18.2 18 16.6 percent [+]
Labour Costs 201.56 208 201 212 214 254 Index Points [+]
Wages 1512.00 2000 2030 2030 2030 3210 TRY/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 231.41 252 261 270 275 325 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 1647.00 1650 1650 1750 1750 1930 TRY/Month [+]
Population 78.74 79.4 79.66 79.89 80.12 83.34 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58 58 58 58 58 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Part Time Employment 2801.10 2470 2500 2520 2580 3640 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 46.80 47 47.2 47.4 47.6 54 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 22916.00 24500 24600 24700 24800 27000 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Inflation Rate 8.79 8.7 8.4 8.5 8.2 5.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.16 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 282.58 288 293 297 300 361 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 108.99 110 113 115 116 141 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 8.80 9.2 9.8 9.4 8.7 3.6 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 1576.15 1540 1608 1672 1712 1966 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 257.81 264 270 275 282 336 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.96 4.2 5.5 5.1 4.8 2.9 percent [+]
Export Prices 93.28 92.5 89.6 91.4 95.6 110 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 83.57 84.6 89.6 92.1 86.7 104 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 9.69 6.9 7.5 7.8 7.4 4.2 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 256.90 258 261 264 267 308 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 108.09 109 111 113 115 138 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Interest Rate 7.50 7.5 7.25 7.25 7 4.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 9.16 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 8 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 344818682.10 346000000 364000000 382000000 401000000 816887111 TRY Thousand [+]
Money Supply M2 1287155880.90 1380000000 1439000000 1439000000 1439000000 2637000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Money Supply M3 1331842688.30 1416000000 1452000000 1452000000 1452000000 2433173166 TRY Thousand [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 140819.10 141556 141592 141587 141586 141586 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 2388885019.00 2578000000 2699000000 2783000000 2896000000 5109000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Loans to Private Sector 800370272.00 788000000 854000000 881000000 908000000 1278129058 TRY Thousand [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 16.77 16.32 16.24 16.14 16.04 9 percent [+]
Lending Rate 8.50 8.5 8 7.5 7.5 5.25 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 130.33 126 126 126 125 120 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 516572712.00 519000000 534000000 556000000 571000000 875000000 TRY Thousand [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Balance of Trade -6559.00 -4200 -6040 -5500 -4200 -2910 USD Million [+]
Exports 12916.18 10300 9460 11500 10600 18000 USD Million [+]
Imports 19475.18 14500 15500 17000 14800 20900 USD Million [+]
Current Account -4942.00 -2900 -3840 -3550 -3240 -358 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.50 -3.9 -3.9 -3.7 -3.7 -2.8 percent [+]
External Debt 411502.00 406000 408000 412000 416000 469000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 111.62 110 110 109 109 113 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 6475.00 -2250 4540 -2700 -1500 4740 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 16800.00 17200 17000 16900 16700 14000 USD Million [+]
Remittances 51.00 54.45 51.7 51.37 51.86 51.8 USD Million [+]
Tourism Revenues 1790.00 3300 1150 1260 2900 1770 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 2438293.00 4120000 1280000 1630000 4080000 1220000 [+]
Gold Reserves 479.34 471 460 450 446 400 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 5.74 5.74 5.74 5.74 5.74 5.74 [+]
Weapons Sales 291.00 306 315 315 315 414 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 49.00 50 50 50 50 50 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 32.90 32 31.7 31.5 31.2 28.5 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.20 -1.6 -1.6 -1.3 -1.3 -0.4 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -8006641.00 -14500000 -18100000 -1000000 -2500000 -1680000 TRY THO [+]
Government Spending 3572297.00 3630000 4770000 3620000 3740000 5870000 TRY THO [+]
Government Revenues 42296118.00 32900000 39800000 39200000 38900000 42900000 TRY THO [+]
Government Debt 711790.00 685000 702000 706000 712000 770000 TRY Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 50302759.00 47400000 57900000 40200000 36400000 59700000 TRY THO [+]
Military Expenditure 17668.90 17866 17819 17772 17775 17664 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 4930.00 12200 15500 17894 14225 6450 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Business Confidence 103.60 105 105 104 103 104 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 47.60 50.1 51.6 52.2 51.9 51 [+]
Industrial Production 1.10 3.7 4.2 3.8 3.4 2.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -1.40 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -0.40 3.5 3.18 4.08 3.17 1 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 75.20 75.8 76.4 74.6 75.9 78 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -32743.00 906176 -1002536 18458 95158 -739870 TRY THO [+]
Bankruptcies 602.00 754 2022 778 985 1710 Companies [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 58533.00 66900 160000 84800 86500 169000 [+]
Car Production 82175.00 69500 77500 80100 76645 87000 Units [+]
Car Registrations 115153.00 86400 129000 103000 92550 135000 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 4.36 3.5 3.8 4.2 3.4 4.4 percent [+]
Steel Production 2866.43 2460 2700 2750 2820 2730 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 7.90 2.3 2.8 2.5 2.5 2 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.37 4.37 4.37 4.39 4.39 4.47 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 51.00 51 51 50 50 46 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 55.00 55 55 54 54 51 [+]
Electricity Production 21555.00 22000 23700 21900 20600 24700 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 42.00 42 42 43 43 45.36 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 66.00 66 66 65 65 62 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 74.44 64.01 62.25 66.47 69.85 85.12 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.20 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.70 2.5 2.9 3.2 3 1.9 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 22404618.90 23400000 23600000 23200000 23300000 27800000 TRY THO [+]
Consumer Credit 396174771.00 404000000 409000000 417000000 429000000 603000000 TRY THO [+]
Private Sector Credit 1305772385.00 1357000000 1375000000 1375000000 1375000000 1783000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Economic Optimism Index 95.73 78.6 74.2 71.4 75.6 101 Index points [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 21.00 21.7 22 22 22 36 percent of GDP [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.45 1.47 1.45 1.42 1.44 1.84 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Construction Output 5.20 6.4 6.8 6.2 5.7 2.5 percent [+]
Housing Index 211.90 216 222 228 234 370 Index points [+]
New Home Sales 37829.00 45600 79500 53600 51400 89400 units [+]
Building Permits 87714.00 65500 104544 89700 87652 106000 [+]
Existing Home Sales 43514.00 49300 68800 65000 59000 78500 units [+]
Housing Starts 9643.00 7050 11500 9650 9920 14600 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 67.30 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.3 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 37.50 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.50 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Turkey including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Turkey economy. 8/26/2016