Turkey | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.30 1 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.3 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 10.50 10.3 10.5 10.8 11 7.3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 9.58 9.46 9.28 8.72 8.5 4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 7.50 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 6.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -6182.60 -4585 -4921 -5148 -5368 -9379 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 33.00 32.8 32.3 32 31.7 28.5 percent [+]
Markets Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Currency 2.91 3.04 3.1 3.13 3.16 2.41 [+]
Stock Market 74203.54 70800 68600 66500 65000 90300 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 10.37 11.01 11.33 11.87 12.41 16.19 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.30 1 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.3 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.00 2.7 3.1 2.9 3 4.2 percent [+]
GDP 798.43 810 812 814 815 838 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 34933562.10 35827085 36617515 37498869 38046986 57174506 TRY THO [+]
Gross National Product 35260909.60 29626736 31718689 36878382 32229049 39772488 TRY THO [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 7368798.80 7421159 7742355 7814631 7931833 8414341 TRY THO [+]
GDP per capita 8871.91 8952 8977 8984 8996 9866 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 18884.02 19225 19336 19437 19592 21736 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 5288949.00 5440503 2251396 5460543 5464708 5463597 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Construction 1942174.70 1778828 1928261 1930950 1952020 2124620 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 7418822.40 7611256 8091944 7425325 7697539 8122713 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Mining 247443.60 160107 178678 243822 201330 215513 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Public Administration 995268.73 922981 921282 1007540 1016491 1054758 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Transport 4103520.00 3847665 4100387 3985353 4028265 4128062 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Utilities 598620.00 598656 678626 598692 678590 693466 TRY THO [+]
Labour Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Unemployment Rate 10.50 10.3 10.5 10.8 11 7.3 percent [+]
Employed Persons 26856.00 27937 27845 27619 27491 35584 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 3147.00 2944 2972 3021 3188 2854 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 51.50 51 53 54 55 64 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.10 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 1.8 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 19.30 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.3 15.3 percent [+]
Labour Costs 180.78 182 184 188 193 254 Index Points [+]
Wages 1512.00 1948 1966 1983 1999 3214 TRY/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 214.49 218 219 221 224 454 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 1647.00 550 550 550 550 575 TRY/Month [+]
Population 77.70 77.85 78.11 78.36 78.62 83.21 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58 58 58 58 58 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Part Time Employment 2386.40 2206 2154 2048 1946 3637 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 46.10 46.1 45.8 45.3 45 56 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 24040.10 23961 23685 23222 23136 25383 Thousand [+]
Prices Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Inflation Rate 9.58 9.46 9.28 8.72 8.5 4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.82 0.4 0.7 0.63 0.58 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 274.44 278 283 288 293 364 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 204.54 212 217 219 223 276 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 9.70 10.2 10.7 11.6 12.3 4.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 1484.64 1568 1577 1586 1597 1886 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 250.67 252 259 266 274 336 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 5.94 6.26 7.56 8.12 7.71 2.87 percent [+]
Export Prices 91.88 91.04 99.64 92.64 95.45 110 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 85.20 84.44 82.1 79.6 81.2 104 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 11.69 9.9 10.5 11.4 12.9 4.2 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 228.82 233 236 240 244 298 percent [+]
Money Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Interest Rate 7.50 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 6.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 11.66 11.67 11.7 12.1 12.6 5.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 311998649.50 327519859 343466164 360177951 377693650 806443372 TRY Thousand [+]
Money Supply M2 1195802786.10 1253474372 1310498628 1379788700 1439079715 2637170137 TRY Thousand [+]
Money Supply M3 1231810511.80 1283197997 1325883723 1370659697 1451749749 2429598187 TRY Thousand [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 137890.60 138734 133533 135746 135737 135735 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 2297777789.00 2480380657 2597170316 2719099399 2846559945 5918111457 TRY Thousand [+]
Loans to Private Sector 748356070.00 766342171 785568507 815266893 861023699 1284690641 TRY Thousand [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 16.77 16.95 16.97 16.98 16.98 17.43 percent [+]
Lending Rate 10.75 10.75 10.75 10.75 10.75 8 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 473459448.00 509809856 529021616 537687816 468045758 874748363 TRY Thousand [+]
Trade Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Balance of Trade -6182.60 -4585 -4921 -5148 -5368 -9379 USD Million [+]
Exports 11801.61 11962 11741 10259 9457 11966 USD Million [+]
Imports 17984.21 17644 17482 17446 17434 17432 USD Million [+]
Current Account -2105.00 -2156 -2336 -2902 -3836 -358 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.50 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -2.8 percent [+]
External Debt 405985.00 410240 412478 415335 417668 468866 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 107.84 106 106 105 105 113 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 1902.00 2195 2157 2165 2164 2164 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 12530.00 13626 13772 13919 13688 13371 USD Million [+]
Remittances 54.00 60.54 61.24 60.16 60.11 60.26 USD Million [+]
Tourism Revenues 1389.00 467 352 300 243 -8.92 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1464791.00 2122360 4737428 3857740 1405655 1997620 [+]
Gold Reserves 504.48 494 492 489 486 469 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 5.74 5.74 5.74 5.74 5.74 5.74 [+]
Crude Oil Production 50.00 50 50 50 50 50 BBL/D/1K [+]
Government Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Government Debt to GDP 33.00 32.8 32.3 32 31.7 28.5 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.30 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -0.4 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -18151550.00 -6485378 -3041447 -3683939 -4039537 -4056799 TRY THO [+]
Government Spending 3566394.90 3323159 3489431 3633811 3770206 5873685 TRY THO [+]
Government Revenues 39475096.00 37295687 36545719 36705256 36850377 36852510 TRY THO [+]
Government Debt 677615.00 684994 713167 715370 711688 819830 TRY Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 57626646.00 48022439 42128038 41420915 41790438 41920323 TRY THO [+]
Credit Rating 43.28 [+]
Asylum Applications 8862.00 9366 10213 12248 15471 6453 Persons [+]
Business Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Business Confidence 103.30 100 101 102 103 100 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 50.90 51.2 50.89 51.11 51.6 51 [+]
Industrial Production 3.50 3.4 2.9 3.3 2.8 2.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.90 0.9 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.5 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 4.30 3.8 2.7 3.5 3.48 1 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 74.90 74.48 74.51 74.79 74.77 79 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 1054803.30 -160708 -64214 972182 -541524 -423091 TRY THO [+]
Bankruptcies 2039.00 819 997 969 1148 757 Companies [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 32713.00 95174 98174 80358 80108 80571 [+]
Car Production 74688.00 68276 68786 68744 68746 68746 Units [+]
Car Registrations 96956.00 97669 82120 97159 82368 84335 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 238.73 243 246 254 257 308 Index Points [+]
Mining Production -6.60 -5.94 -5.58 -1.65 -0.98 1.85 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.37 4.37 4.37 4.37 4.37 4.47 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 51.00 51 51 51 51 46 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 55.00 55 55 55 55 51 [+]
Corruption Index 42.00 45 45 45 45 47.2 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 66.00 64 64 64 64 60 [+]
Consumer Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Consumer Confidence 71.60 73 74 75 76.01 70 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.70 0.74 0.63 0.8 0.98 0.56 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.40 3.88 2.81 4.12 2.74 1.11 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 22616217.70 22113791 22357064 22574674 22747203 27756252 TRY THO [+]
Consumer Credit 384045199.00 388789177 387053962 396462342 405970548 603126941 TRY THO [+]
Private Sector Credit 1240765069.00 1290871334 1325946923 1357135404 1397429257 1783475186 TRY Thousand [+]
Economic Optimism Index 83.88 99 96 94 92 100 Index points [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 21.00 20.83 21.6 21.7 22 36 percent of GDP [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.43 1.43 1.39 1.31 1.27 1.94 USD/Liter [+]
Housing Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Construction Output 1.50 1.46 2.78 4.44 4.46 4.81 percent [+]
Housing Index 199.56 204 211 223 230 325 Index points [+]
Building Permits 60718.00 72123 76623 78685 83682 72410 [+]
Housing Starts 6953.00 7359 8637 9872 10556 14556 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 67.30 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.3 percent [+]
Taxes Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 37.50 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.50 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Turkey including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Turkey economy. 2/6/2016