Turkey | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.8 1.4 1.1 0.99 1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 10.20 10.7 10.5 9.4 10.1 10.9 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 8.05 8.6 8.2 7.9 7.66 4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 7.50 7.25 7.25 7 7.46 4.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -4686.70 -6040 -5500 -4200 -5300 -2910 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 32.90 31.7 31.5 31.2 38.63 28.5 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Currency 3.00 3 3.03 3.06 3.06 3.53 [+]
Stock Market 76663.00 76400 75600 74800 77350 62400 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 9.44 9.81 9.91 10 9.35 11.54 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.8 1.4 1.1 0.99 1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.10 3.7 3.8 3.5 3.86 4 percent [+]
GDP 718.22 730 734 739 695 776 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 33061048.10 37400000 36600000 32600000 35500000 51200000 TRY THO [+]
Gross National Product 31671243.40 34200000 30800000 31400000 37400000 39800000 TRY THO [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 8271132.40 8350000 7120000 8030000 7920000 9110000 TRY THO [+]
GDP per capita 11524.51 11650 11700 11750 11918 12660 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 18958.62 20200 20700 21400 19582 24100 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 2337513.00 2986000 1482000 1277000 6654000 3478000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Construction 2040371.70 1970000 1890000 2050000 2080000 2340000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 8535937.00 8660000 8250000 8470000 7660000 9060000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Mining 213551.90 221000 169000 215000 259000 246000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Public Administration 918756.75 1040000 980000 970000 1050000 1180000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Transport 4095462.00 4340000 3980000 4150000 4270000 4930000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Utilities 587421.00 754000 499000 567000 617000 873000 TRY THO [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 10.20 10.7 10.5 9.4 10.1 10.9 percent [+]
Employed Persons 27651.00 26600 26900 27300 27300 30600 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 3127.00 3190 3010 2880 3040 3120 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 51.90 52.8 53.6 54.1 51.88 58.2 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.00 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.06 2.5 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 17.40 19 18.4 17.5 19.29 16.6 percent [+]
Labour Costs 203.61 201 212 217 225 254 Index Points [+]
Wages 1512.00 2000 2050 2090 2130 3210 TRY/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 240.15 252 261 270 275 336 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 1647.00 1650 1750 1750 1647 1930 TRY/Month [+]
Population 78.74 79.66 79.89 80.12 80.35 83.34 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58 58 58 58 58 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Part Time Employment 2801.10 2580 2950 2880 2510 3640 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 46.20 47.2 47.4 47.6 45.94 54 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 22916.00 23800 24100 25100 24700 26900 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Inflation Rate 8.05 8.6 8.2 7.9 7.66 4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.29 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.68 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 281.76 293 297 301 300 353 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 108.99 113 115 116 119 141 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 8.50 9.8 9.4 8.7 7.8 3.6 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 1590.79 1562 1672 1712 1686 1852 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 258.01 270 275 282 260 336 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.03 5.5 5.1 4.8 2.59 2.9 percent [+]
Export Prices 92.81 89.6 91.4 95.6 97.4 110 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 82.63 89.6 92.1 86.7 86.5 104 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 6.19 9.2 7.8 7.4 6.8 3.6 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 257.38 261 264 267 270 308 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 107.96 115 119 123 115 158 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Interest Rate 7.50 7.25 7.25 7 7.46 4.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 8.91 8.9 8.8 8.6 8.47 6.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 343714040.00 364000000 382000000 401000000 428242440 816000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Money Supply M2 1288343871.30 1439000000 1526000000 1599000000 1519183532 2637000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Money Supply M3 1332380973.50 1452000000 1562000000 1622000000 1546621327 2673000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 141810.20 142532 142542 142543 142543 142543 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 2418317868.00 2699000000 2783000000 2896000000 2923734634 5109000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Loans to Private Sector 811387411.00 864000000 891000000 918000000 948937842 1278000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 14.92 16.24 16.14 16.04 15.25 9 percent [+]
Lending Rate 8.25 8 7.5 7.5 8.51 5.25 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 175.79 164 165 176 186 191 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 527608564.00 534000000 556000000 571000000 531826855 875000000 TRY Thousand [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Balance of Trade -4686.70 -6040 -5500 -4200 -5300 -2910 USD Million [+]
Exports 11867.06 9460 11500 10600 10500 18000 USD Million [+]
Imports 16553.82 15500 17000 14800 16408 20900 USD Million [+]
Current Account -2602.00 -3840 -3550 -3240 -2527 -358 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.50 -3.9 -3.7 -3.7 -5.83 -2.8 percent [+]
External Debt 421434.00 408000 412000 416000 439879 469000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 112.32 107 108 109 110 117 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 512.00 4540 -2700 -1500 2508 4740 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 16800.00 17000 16900 16700 16000 16500 USD Million [+]
Remittances 38.00 47.21 46.74 46.24 46.34 46.38 USD Million [+]
Tourism Revenues 1790.00 1150 1260 2900 2095 1770 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 3183003.00 1280000 1630000 4080000 3198781 1220000 [+]
Gold Reserves 474.39 461 452 448 442 404 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 5.74 5.74 5.74 5.74 5.49 5.74 [+]
Weapons Sales 291.00 306 315 315 315 414 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 49.00 50 50 50 48.79 50 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 32.90 31.7 31.5 31.2 38.63 28.5 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.20 -1.6 -1.3 -1.3 -4.27 -0.4 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 6239698.00 -18100000 -1000000 -2500000 278913 -1680000 TRY THO [+]
Government Spending 4081536.20 4790000 3620000 3740000 3790000 5870000 TRY THO [+]
Government Revenues 49490413.00 39800000 39200000 38900000 41884526 42900000 TRY THO [+]
Government Debt 710948.00 722000 736000 742000 752131 825000 TRY Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 43250715.00 57900000 40200000 36400000 41439802 59700000 TRY THO [+]
Military Expenditure 17668.90 17866 17819 17772 17775 17664 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 4431.00 15500 17894 14225 7372 6450 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Business Confidence 106.50 105 104 103 104 104 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 47.00 50.6 51.9 51.7 47.43 51 [+]
Industrial Production -4.90 4.2 3.8 3.4 -1.16 2.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -7.00 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.42 0.5 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -6.50 3.4 3.2 2.8 3.1 1 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 76.60 76.4 74.6 75.9 76.68 78 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -6132.90 -1002000 -18000 -95000 76000 -739000 TRY THO [+]
Bankruptcies 689.00 2022 778 985 945 1710 Companies [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 71556.00 160000 84800 94500 68200 169000 [+]
Car Production 52296.00 77500 80100 84600 71500 87000 Units [+]
Car Registrations 90749.00 129000 103000 117500 88700 135000 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 3.29 3.8 4.2 3.4 -21.6 4.4 percent [+]
Steel Production 2853.31 2700 2750 2820 2832 2730 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -0.80 2.8 2.5 2.2 0.04 2 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.39 4.37 4.39 4.39 4.38 4.47 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 55.00 51 51 50 50 47 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 55.00 55 54 54 61.12 51 [+]
Electricity Production 23986.00 23700 21900 22600 21900 24700 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 42.00 42 42 43 43 46 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 66.00 66 65 65 61.66 62 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 74.30 62.25 66.47 69.85 72.92 85.12 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -3.10 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.26 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY -2.70 2.9 3.2 3 -2.03 1.9 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 22104317.10 23600000 23200000 23300000 24000000 27800000 TRY THO [+]
Consumer Credit 399311206.00 409000000 417000000 429000000 426228750 603000000 TRY THO [+]
Private Sector Credit 1334783818.00 1378000000 1405000000 1435000000 1535700297 1783000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Economic Optimism Index 87.80 74.2 71.4 75.6 88.94 101 Index points [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 20.70 22 22.4 23.4 20.1 36 percent of GDP [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.52 1.45 1.42 1.44 1.5 1.84 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Construction Output 6.20 6.8 6.2 5.7 4.99 2.5 percent [+]
Housing Index 217.40 222 228 234 244 340 Index points [+]
New Home Sales 53784.00 79500 53600 51400 49442 89400 units [+]
Building Permits 78835.00 104544 89700 83400 67600 106000 [+]
Existing Home Sales 60967.00 68800 65000 59000 49800 78500 units [+]
Housing Starts 9417.00 11500 9650 9720 7160 14600 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 67.30 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.3 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 37.50 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.50 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Turkey including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Turkey economy. 10/1/2016