Turkey | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.3 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 10.10 10.5 9.5 10.2 11.2 11.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 6.58 7.3 8.7 8.5 8.4 6.1 percent [+]
Interest Rate 7.50 7.5 7.5 7.25 7.25 5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -5054.00 -4207 -6015 -5530 -5265 -2912 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 32.90 32.3 32 31.7 31.6 28.5 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Currency 2.88 2.93 2.96 2.99 3.02 3.48 [+]
Stock Market 76817.00 77400 76600 75800 75000 62500 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 9.09 9.68 9.77 9.87 9.96 11.5 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.3 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.80 5.1 4.4 3.7 3.8 4 percent [+]
GDP 798.43 812 814 829 831 838 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 31679387.70 36617515 37498869 38046986 38046986 57174506 TRY THO [+]
Gross National Product 30372669.80 31718689 36878382 33229049 32229049 39772488 TRY THO [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 7041932.60 7742355 7814631 7931833 7931833 8414341 TRY THO [+]
GDP per capita 8871.91 8977 8984 8996 8998 9866 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 18884.02 19136 19159 19188 19198 19554 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 1447094.00 2251396 3799053 1506282 1422256 308891 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Construction 1826963.50 1946071 1945516 1952020 1952020 2124620 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 8178383.00 8471956 8178885 8471455 8179384 8122713 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Mining 164214.50 178678 247527 201330 201330 215513 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Public Administration 955860.46 942068 1008336 1028100 983114 1064758 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Transport 3879119.00 4272336 3985353 4349501 4365598 4128062 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Utilities 478320.00 567419 478388 567351 478455 693466 TRY THO [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 10.10 10.5 9.5 10.2 11.2 11.5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 26993.00 27045 27119 27257 27391 31584 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 3023.00 3172 3021 3004 2924 2754 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 51.80 52.3 53.4 54.1 55 58.2 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.30 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 1.8 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 17.00 17.5 18.2 19 18.2 16.6 percent [+]
Labour Costs 201.56 184 188 193 193 254 Index Points [+]
Wages 1512.00 1966 1999 2032 2058 3214 TRY/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 231.41 241 252 261 270 325 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 1647.00 1647 1647 1647 1750 1925 TRY/Month [+]
Population 78.74 79.12 79.37 79.62 79.84 82.85 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58 58 58 58 58 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Part Time Employment 2501.70 2354 2368 2376 2381 3637 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 46.80 46.5 46.6 46.8 45 56 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 23441.20 24455 24482 24536 24536 26983 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Inflation Rate 6.58 7.3 8.7 8.5 8.4 6.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.58 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 278.02 283 288 293 293 355 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 108.51 107 109 112 121 149 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 8.80 9.7 9.8 9.4 12.33 4.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 1576.15 1507 1536 1608 1672 1966 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 256.21 260 264 270 274 336 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.25 3.7 4.2 5.5 5.1 2.9 percent [+]
Export Prices 92.67 99.64 92.64 95.45 95.45 110 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 80.87 82.1 79.6 81.2 81.2 104 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.47 4.2 5.3 6.4 12.9 4.2 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 254.90 256 259 262 265 308 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 235.82 237 241 244 248 299 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Interest Rate 7.50 7.5 7.5 7.25 7.25 5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 9.50 9.5 9.5 12.6 9.2 8 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 325190593.20 332133245 347185057 362926341 379387860 738710711 TRY Thousand [+]
Money Supply M2 1256901313.80 1310498628 1379788700 1439079715 1439079715 2637170137 TRY Thousand [+]
Money Supply M3 1300991300.90 1339638350 1416243044 1451749749 1451749749 2432729878 TRY Thousand [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 137282.10 133533 139445 139475 139477 139476 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 2334809815.00 2471188077 2578362472 2688897615 2803409386 5216200912 TRY Thousand [+]
Loans to Private Sector 767092296.00 785568507 788266893 815628453 835309854 1095473195 TRY Thousand [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 16.77 16.44 16.32 16.04 15.98 9 percent [+]
Lending Rate 9.00 8.25 7.75 7.5 9.55 5.25 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 498246165.00 497902161 518687815 534062354 501403013 874748363 TRY Thousand [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Balance of Trade -5054.00 -4207 -6015 -5530 -5265 -2912 USD Million [+]
Exports 12140.01 10258 9456 11457 12137 17985 USD Million [+]
Imports 17194.33 14465 15471 16987 16875 20897 USD Million [+]
Current Account -2956.00 -2336 -2902 -3836 -3836 -358 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.50 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.7 -2.8 percent [+]
External Debt 398038.00 404478 406335 407668 406444 448866 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 114.59 112 111 110 110 113 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 4317.00 4160 -2247 6544 2698 4744 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 16800.00 13772 13919 19435 19188 18731 USD Million [+]
Remittances 38.00 45.34 51.55 49.78 48.94 49.34 USD Million [+]
Tourism Revenues 1466.00 2874 3299 1145 1258 1774 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 2485411.00 4115101 1279157 1629434 3068176 1799185 [+]
Gold Reserves 479.34 473 471 460 450 400 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 5.74 5.74 5.74 5.74 5.74 5.74 [+]
Weapons Sales 291.00 299 306 315 323 414 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 49.00 50 50 50 50 50 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 32.90 32.3 32 31.7 31.6 28.5 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.20 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.3 -0.4 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 3178485.00 -9496584 -18545447 -3839537 -323364 -656799 TRY THO [+]
Government Spending 3572297.00 3489431 3633811 4470206 3770206 5873685 TRY THO [+]
Government Revenues 47733499.00 41380336 40060453 40310253 40550214 40547891 TRY THO [+]
Government Debt 700450.00 682167 685370 701804 705694 770394 TRY Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 44555014.00 41667999 40979776 40983479 41046779 41056467 TRY THO [+]
Military Expenditure 17668.90 17866 17819 17772 17775 17664 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 8862.00 10213 12248 15471 18645 6453 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Business Confidence 106.80 109 108 107 108 100 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 49.40 50.89 51.11 51.6 51.74 51 [+]
Industrial Production 0.70 3.2 3.7 4.2 3.8 2.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -1.10 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.5 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.40 2.7 3.5 3.39 3.45 1 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 76.10 76.3 76.7 76.4 75.7 78 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -32743.00 179948 906176 -1002536 18458 -739870 TRY THO [+]
Bankruptcies 581.00 996 754 1987 778 1711 Companies [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 93904.00 88174 66854 159877 84775 168699 [+]
Car Production 76569.00 75915 69459 77451 80147 86995 Units [+]
Car Registrations 106986.00 92607 86364 128630 102635 135478 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 3.40 3.6 3.5 3.8 4.2 4.4 percent [+]
Steel Production 3041.00 2455 2698 2748 2866 2728 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -4.50 -1.2 2.3 2.8 2.5 2 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.37 4.37 4.37 4.37 4.39 4.47 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 51.00 51 51 51 50 47 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 55.00 55 55 55 54 51 [+]
Electricity Production 21013.00 20347 21957 23671 21855 24654 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 42.00 42 42 42 43 46 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 66.00 66 66 66 65 62 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 69.43 71.14 75.01 76.01 78.66 85.12 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.10 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.40 3.7 2.5 2.9 3.2 1.8 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 22404618.90 22957064 23174674 23347203 22747203 27756252 TRY THO [+]
Consumer Credit 391584972.00 393053961 396462341 401970548 405970548 603126941 TRY THO [+]
Private Sector Credit 1277555723.00 1325946923 1357135404 1375365111 1397429257 1783475186 TRY Thousand [+]
Economic Optimism Index 83.33 82.11 82.62 84.65 81.5 100 Index points [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 21.00 21.6 21.7 22 22 36 percent of GDP [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.55 1.51 1.47 1.45 1.27 1.84 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Construction Output 5.20 5.7 6.4 6.8 6.5 2.5 percent [+]
Housing Index 206.18 209 216 222 226 314 Index points [+]
New Home Sales 56043.00 52505 45641 79456 53647 89415 units [+]
Building Permits 87714.00 88798 65478 101544 89745 105777 [+]
Existing Home Sales 58757.00 59987 49258 68758 64978 78546 units [+]
Housing Starts 9643.00 9546 7045 11457 9654 14555 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 67.30 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.3 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 37.50 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.50 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Turkey including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Turkey economy. 7/1/2016