Turkey | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate -2.70 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.3 1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 12.70 11.9 10.4 11.4 10.5 10.9 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 10.13 8.6 8.8 8.5 8 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 8.00 8.25 8.25 8.25 8 5.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -4308.50 -5500 -4200 -4881 -7290 -2910 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 32.90 31.5 31.2 35.32 30.5 28.5 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 3.65 3.71 3.74 3.78 3.85 4.4 [+]
Stock Market 89269.72 88400 87500 86600 84800 71400 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 10.66 10.71 10.81 10.92 11.02 12.72 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate -2.70 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.3 1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate -1.80 1.8 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.8 percent [+]
GDP 717.88 734 739 736 748 776 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 400339902.80 32600000 35500000 39700000 38900000 51200000 TRY THO [+]
Gross National Product 31671243.40 30800000 31400000 37400000 34800000 39800000 TRY THO [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 115083045.60 7120000 8030000 7920000 8590000 9110000 TRY THO [+]
GDP per capita 11522.71 11700 11750 11667 12050 12660 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 18956.27 20700 21400 19496 22000 24100 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 50307940.00 1482000 1277000 6654000 3124000 3478000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Construction 30028117.30 1890000 2050000 2080000 2070000 2340000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 58677025.40 8250000 8470000 7660000 8730000 9060000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Mining 213551.90 169000 215000 259000 227000 246000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Public Administration 918756.75 980000 970000 1050000 1080000 1180000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Transport 4095462.00 3980000 4150000 4270000 4420000 4930000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Utilities 587421.00 499000 567000 617000 785000 873000 TRY THO [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 12.70 11.9 10.4 11.4 10.5 10.9 percent [+]
Employed Persons 26669.00 26900 27300 27300 27500 30600 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 3175.00 3010 2880 3040 3080 3120 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 52.40 53.6 54.1 52.44 56 58.2 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.20 2.3 2.3 2.15 2.3 2.5 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 19.90 18.4 17.5 20.14 18.6 16.6 percent [+]
Labour Costs 210.46 212 217 225 205 254 Index Points [+]
Wages 1512.00 2090 2130 2130 2250 3210 TRY/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 250.04 270 275 270 285 336 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 1777.50 1778 1778 1778 1778 1930 TRY/Month [+]
Population 79.81 78.89 79.14 79.4 79.66 83.34 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58 58 58 58 58 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Living Wage Family 2407.40 2340 2321 2315 2314 2313 TRY/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1656.70 1605 1582 1571 1565 1561 TRY/Month [+]
Part Time Employment 2200.80 2950 2880 2510 2740 3640 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 46.20 47.4 47.6 46.23 48 54 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 24536.30 24100 25100 24700 24300 26900 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 10.13 8.6 8.8 8.5 8 3.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.81 0.6 0.5 0.85 0.5 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 302.17 297 301 314 320 383 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 113.41 115 116 119 121 141 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 8.90 9.4 8.7 10.19 7.4 3.6 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 1590.79 1672 1712 1686 1698 1852 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 288.59 292 301 312 319 366 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 15.36 10.2 9.6 8.9 7.5 3.4 percent [+]
Export Prices 91.44 91.4 95.6 97.4 102 110 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 84.85 92.1 86.7 86.5 86.3 104 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 8.72 7.8 7.4 6.8 6.2 3.6 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 293.26 264 267 270 273 308 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 110.28 119 123 116 130 158 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 8.00 8.25 8.25 8.25 8 5.75 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 12.09 8.8 8.6 12.33 8.2 6.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 377205411.20 382000000 401000000 409771536 453000000 816000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Money Supply M2 1401609383.00 1526000000 1599000000 1493225852 1766000000 2637000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Money Supply M3 1445678015.00 1562000000 1622000000 1538104393 1794000000 2673000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 132023.60 130880 131399 131508 131526 131530 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 2789143407.00 2783000000 2896000000 3173491546 3120000000 5109000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Loans to Private Sector 941811437.00 891000000 918000000 1089016692 978000000 1278000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 14.92 16.14 16.04 15.8 15.23 9 percent [+]
Lending Rate 9.25 8 7.5 7 7 5.25 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 192.12 198 199 199 200 202 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 540000769.00 556000000 571000000 541652132 590000000 875000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Foreign Stock Investment 40851.00 40641 40656 40656 40656 40656 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -4308.50 -5500 -4200 -4881 -7290 -2910 USD Million [+]
Exports 11277.65 11500 10600 10500 10400 18000 USD Million [+]
Imports 15586.15 17000 14800 16368 17700 20900 USD Million [+]
Current Account -2762.00 -3550 -3240 -2843 -2130 -358 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.50 -3.7 -4.4 -4.4 -4.4 -2.8 percent [+]
External Debt 416732.00 412000 416000 420176 424000 469000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 107.77 108 109 110 111 117 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 3449.00 -2700 -1500 2004 -6120 4740 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 16800.00 16900 16700 16000 15000 16500 USD Million [+]
Remittances 45.00 47.92 49.53 49.5 49.14 49.21 USD Million [+]
Tourism Revenues 1142.10 1260 2900 1426 1120 1770 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1170333.00 1630000 4080000 2624458 1240000 1220000 [+]
Gold Reserves 377.05 345 319 278 253 47.81 Tonnes [+]
Weapons Sales 291.00 315 315 315 325 414 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 6.74 5.74 5.74 6.21 5.74 5.74 [+]
Crude Oil Production 49.00 50 50 48.87 50 50 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 32.90 31.5 31.2 35.32 30.5 28.5 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.20 -1.3 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -0.4 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -14557823.00 -1000000 -2500000 194610 -17700000 -1680000 TRY THO [+]
Government Spending 58803816.70 3620000 3740000 3790000 3940000 5870000 TRY THO [+]
Government Revenues 44539197.00 39200000 38900000 42594755 40500000 42900000 TRY THO [+]
Government Debt 783079.00 736000 742000 826646 766000 825000 TRY Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 59097020.00 40200000 36400000 46753258 58200000 59700000 TRY THO [+]
Military Expenditure 17668.90 17866 17819 17772 17775 17664 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 8236.00 17894 14225 7863 12300 6450 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 108.10 105 95.4 97.2 100 104 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 49.70 51.9 51.7 49.52 53.4 51 [+]
Industrial Production 2.60 3.8 3.4 1.82 3.1 2.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 1.30 0.8 0.6 0.42 0.9 0.5 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 2.80 3.2 2.8 1.75 2.5 1 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 74.90 75.3 75.9 75.12 76.4 78 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -6132.90 -18000 -95000 76000 -921000 -739000 TRY THO [+]
Bankruptcies 815.00 778 985 1119 1900 1710 Companies [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 46965.00 84800 94500 68200 162000 169000 [+]
Car Production 97129.00 80100 84600 71500 79900 87000 Units [+]
Car Registrations 128648.00 103000 117500 88700 130000 135000 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 4.40 4.2 3.4 22.2 5.5 4.4 percent [+]
Mining Production -13.70 2.5 2.2 -7.41 2.1 2 percent [+]
Steel Production 2738.55 2750 2820 2824 2710 2730 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.38 4.39 4.47 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 55.00 50 50 50 50 47 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 69.00 54 54 64.58 54 51 [+]
Electricity Production 25080.00 21900 22600 21900 23800 24700 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 41.00 43 43 43 43 46 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 75.00 65 65 64.84 65 62 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 67.80 64.6 69.85 67.04 74.55 85.12 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.60 0.5 0.4 0.19 0.8 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY -2.00 3.2 3 -1.75 2.7 1.9 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 233373970.10 23200000 23300000 24000000 23900000 27800000 TRY THO [+]
Consumer Credit 429092409.00 417000000 429000000 457825916 454000000 603000000 TRY THO [+]
Private Sector Credit 1501062231.00 1405000000 1435000000 1723428552 1485000000 1783000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Economic Optimism Index 91.50 71.4 75.6 94.05 85 101 Index points [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.44 1.42 1.44 1.37 1.51 1.84 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 17.70 22.4 23.4 13.7 25 36 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Construction Output -0.30 6.2 5.7 -13.91 3.5 2.5 percent [+]
Housing Index 225.90 228 234 242 249 340 Index points [+]
Housing Starts 13079.00 9650 9720 7160 11600 14600 [+]
New Home Sales 63467.00 53600 51400 52979 82500 89400 units [+]
Building Permits 122143.00 89700 83400 67600 102000 106000 [+]
Existing Home Sales 69188.00 65000 59000 49800 70300 78500 units [+]
Home Ownership Rate 60.70 60.59 60.59 60.59 60.59 60.56 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 37.50 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.50 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Turkey including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Turkey economy. 3/30/2017