Turkey | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Turkey including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Turkey economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.80 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.2 1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 12.60 10.4 11.7 12.4 11.8 13 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 11.87 9.7 8.3 6.5 6.2 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 8.00 8.5 8.5 8.25 8 5.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -4492.00 -5200 -3400 -4500 -4900 -2000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 28.30 31.2 31.2 31.2 32.5 36.6 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 3.56 3.68 3.71 3.82 3.79 4.37 [+]
Stock Market 98313.77 87900 87000 84300 85200 71000 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 10.42 10.76 10.86 10.97 11.08 12.78 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.80 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.2 1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.50 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.8 percent [+]
GDP 717.88 739 739 739 754 816 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 429459491.40 398000000 411000000 438000000 362000000 512000000 TRY THO [+]
Gross National Product 31671243.40 31400000 37400000 34800000 30587036 39800000 TRY THO [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 131057114.70 8030000 7920000 8590000 113606314 9110000 TRY THO [+]
GDP per capita 11522.71 11750 11535 12050 11621 12660 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 19460.48 21400 19645 22000 19828 24100 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 23588634.00 1277000 6654000 3124000 23313312 3478000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Construction 31943917.50 2050000 2080000 2070000 30917367 2340000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 72255653.00 8470000 7660000 8730000 62586462 9060000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Mining 213551.90 215000 259000 227000 171897 246000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Public Administration 40136140.33 970000 1050000 1080000 41461687 1180000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Transport 4095462.00 4150000 4270000 4420000 3973295 4930000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Utilities 587421.00 567000 617000 785000 497630 873000 TRY THO [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 12.60 10.4 11.7 12.4 11.8 13 percent [+]
Employed Persons 26956.00 27300 27300 27500 27700 30600 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 3900.00 3080 3340 3880 3020 3220 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 52.70 52.6 52.8 53 52.9 54.9 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.60 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.8 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 23.30 22.1 23.6 24.5 24.1 25 percent [+]
Labour Costs 210.46 217 225 205 231 254 Index Points [+]
Wages 1512.00 2130 2130 2250 2250 3210 TRY/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 250.04 260 265 270 285 340 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 1777.50 1778 1778 1778 1830 1930 TRY/Month [+]
Population 79.81 79.86 79.9 79.96 80.25 84.34 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58 58 58 58 58 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Living Wage Family 2407.40 2321 2315 2314 2313 2313 TRY/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1656.70 1582 1571 1565 1563 1561 TRY/Month [+]
Part Time Employment 2712.00 2500 2500 2740 2982 3640 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 46.50 46.6 46.8 47 46.9 51 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 23617.60 25300 25300 25500 25700 28600 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 11.87 9.7 8.3 6.5 6.2 3.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.31 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 309.23 301 319 325 331 396 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 117.78 116 122 121 128 141 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 10.00 8.7 8.2 7.4 7 3.6 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 171.90 1712 1686 1698 173 173 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 293.79 301 312 319 324 366 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 16.37 9.6 8.9 7.5 6.6 3.4 percent [+]
Export Prices 90.87 95.6 97.4 102 90.75 110 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 85.89 86.7 86.5 86.3 86.85 104 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 15.63 7.4 6.8 6.2 6 3.6 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 297.37 299 307 316 325 362 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 118.51 117 119 122 125 158 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 8.00 8.5 8.5 8.25 8 5.75 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 12.60 12.3 12.5 12.4 12.2 8.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 419127389.90 401000000 446834867 453000000 485290741 816000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Money Supply M2 1468654893.60 1599000000 1543567514 1766000000 1623208508 2637000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Money Supply M3 1512986746.80 1622000000 1585939294 1794000000 1670387140 2673000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 128609.80 128553 128654 128688 128694 128696 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 2789143407.00 2896000000 3173491546 3120000000 3408059541 5109000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Loans to Private Sector 959618362.00 918000000 1032623395 978000000 1110970713 1278000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 14.60 14 14 14 13 9 percent [+]
Lending Rate 9.25 9.5 9.5 9.25 9 6.75 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 192.12 199 199 200 200 202 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 549827724.00 571000000 547014615 590000000 546231088 875000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Foreign Stock Investment 44560.00 44526 44526 44526 44526 44526 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -4492.00 -5200 -3400 -4500 -4900 -2000 USD Million [+]
Exports 14495.78 13600 11500 13200 13100 20400 USD Million [+]
Imports 18988.16 18800 14900 17700 18000 22400 USD Million [+]
Current Account -3057.00 -4240 -2950 -3230 -3240 -1950 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.80 -4.4 -4.4 -4.4 -3.6 -2.8 percent [+]
External Debt 404182.00 416000 401001 424000 396892 469000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 105.79 109 110 111 107 117 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 4204.00 -1500 2270 -6120 2297 4740 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 12300.00 11800 11800 11800 12100 16500 USD Million [+]
Remittances 36.00 43.37 45.67 44.29 44.05 44.28 USD Million [+]
Tourism Revenues 1234.00 4780 7960 4420 3860 3980 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1587007.00 2320000 2780000 1260000 1550000 1220000 [+]
Gold Reserves 377.05 319 278 253 226 47.81 Tonnes [+]
Weapons Sales 291.00 315 286 318 324 414 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 6.74 6.74 6.74 6.74 6.74 6.74 [+]
Crude Oil Production 48.00 50 48.74 50 48.72 50 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 28.30 31.2 31.2 31.2 32.5 36.6 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.00 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -0.9 -0.4 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -2.96 -8700000 -9300000 -17700000 -5600000 -1680000 TRY THO [+]
Government Spending 62216677.90 3740000 3790000 3940000 55029996 5870000 TRY THO [+]
Government Revenues 37059161.00 42700000 35400000 40500000 39600000 42900000 TRY THO [+]
Government Debt 794500.00 742000 827800 766000 864429 825000 TRY Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 53851706.00 51400000 44700000 58200000 45200000 59700000 TRY THO [+]
Military Expenditure 17668.90 17866 17819 17772 17775 17664 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 8236.00 14225 7863 12300 7977 6450 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 109.20 106 106 107 107 104 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.70 52.8 53.2 53.4 53 51 [+]
Industrial Production 2.80 2.2 2.7 3.1 2.8 2.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 1.30 -0.4 0.7 0.9 -0.6 0.5 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 2.50 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.4 1 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 78.80 75.9 79.05 76.4 78.35 78 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -20995989.40 -95000 76000 -921000 -4504817 -739000 TRY THO [+]
Bankruptcies 720.00 985 1139 1900 1122 1710 Companies [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 75988.00 94500 68200 162000 75481 169000 [+]
Car Production 101839.00 84600 71500 79900 100958 87000 Units [+]
Car Registrations 102899.00 117500 88700 130000 98570 135000 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 4.09 4.6 5 5.5 5.1 4.4 percent [+]
Mining Production -3.80 -6 -4.8 -2.2 0.2 2 percent [+]
Steel Production 3111.40 2820 2960 2710 2969 2730 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.42 4.47 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 55.00 55 55 55 54 52 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 69.00 68 68 68 67 65 [+]
Electricity Production 23696.00 22600 21900 23800 23621 24700 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 41.00 42 42 42 43 45 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 75.00 74 74 74 73 71 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 72.80 69.9 71.2 74.6 76.8 87.9 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 2.10 0.4 -0.6 0.8 -0.3 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY -0.40 -2.6 -1.6 -0.4 0.5 2.3 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 264285010.30 23300000 24000000 23900000 248643437 27800000 TRY THO [+]
Consumer Credit 442053920.00 429000000 466142543 454000000 489925349 603000000 TRY THO [+]
Private Sector Credit 1528803245.00 1435000000 1633866591 1485000000 1741117422 1783000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Economic Optimism Index 99.50 97.6 99.2 101 102 102 Index points [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.48 1.44 1.42 1.43 1.41 1.56 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 17.70 17.5 17.4 17.2 17.3 25 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Construction Output 0.50 5.7 4.6 3.5 3.2 2.5 percent [+]
Housing Index 231.10 234 245 252 264 339 Index points [+]
Housing Starts 13079.00 9720 7460 14200 9050 20600 [+]
New Home Sales 56376.00 51400 50800 82500 52200 89400 units [+]
Building Permits 122143.00 83400 67600 125000 89500 149000 [+]
Existing Home Sales 72547.00 59000 49800 70300 65100 78500 units [+]
Home Ownership Rate 60.70 61 61 61 61.2 61.7 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 37.50 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.50 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]