Turkey | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.8 1.4 1.1 0.99 1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 11.30 10.7 10.5 9.4 10.1 10.9 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 7.00 7.5 8.2 7.2 6.9 4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 8.00 8 7.75 7.5 7.5 4.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -4160.00 -6040 -5500 -4200 -4809 -2910 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 32.90 31.7 31.5 31.2 38.63 28.5 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Currency 3.39 3.4 3.44 3.47 3.5 4.04 [+]
Stock Market 76030.78 74300 73600 72800 72100 60100 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 10.90 10.88 10.99 11.09 11.2 12.92 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.8 1.4 1.1 0.99 1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.10 2.5 2.8 3 2.9 3.8 percent [+]
GDP 718.22 730 734 739 695 776 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 33061048.10 36600000 32600000 35500000 39700000 51200000 TRY THO [+]
Gross National Product 31671243.40 34200000 30800000 31400000 37400000 39800000 TRY THO [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 8271132.40 8350000 7120000 8030000 7920000 9110000 TRY THO [+]
GDP per capita 11524.51 11650 11700 11750 11918 12660 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 18958.62 20200 20700 21400 19582 24100 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 2337513.00 2986000 1482000 1277000 6654000 3478000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Construction 2040371.70 1970000 1890000 2050000 2080000 2340000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 8535937.00 8660000 8250000 8470000 7660000 9060000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Mining 213551.90 221000 169000 215000 259000 246000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Public Administration 918756.75 1040000 980000 970000 1050000 1180000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Transport 4095462.00 4340000 3980000 4150000 4270000 4930000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Utilities 587421.00 754000 499000 567000 617000 873000 TRY THO [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 11.30 10.7 10.5 9.4 10.1 10.9 percent [+]
Employed Persons 27473.00 26600 26900 27300 27300 30600 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 3493.00 3190 3010 2880 3040 3120 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 51.90 52.8 53.6 54.1 51.97 58.2 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.10 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.08 2.5 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 19.80 19 18.4 17.5 18.26 16.6 percent [+]
Labour Costs 203.61 201 212 217 225 254 Index Points [+]
Wages 1512.00 2050 2090 2130 2170 3210 TRY/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 244.82 261 270 275 281 336 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 1647.00 1650 1750 1750 1647 1930 TRY/Month [+]
Population 78.74 79.66 79.89 80.12 80.35 83.34 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58 58 58 58 58 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Part Time Employment 2752.80 2580 2950 2880 2510 3640 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 46.00 47.2 47.4 47.6 46.04 54 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 24350.70 23800 24100 25100 24700 26900 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Inflation Rate 7.00 7.5 8.2 7.2 6.9 4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.52 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.67 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 287.81 293 297 301 302 357 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 109.29 113 115 116 116 141 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 7.10 9.8 9.4 8.7 5.85 3.6 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 1590.79 1562 1672 1712 1686 1852 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 266.16 270 275 282 280 336 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 6.41 5.5 5.1 4.8 8.13 2.9 percent [+]
Export Prices 93.02 89.6 91.4 95.6 97.4 110 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 82.52 89.6 92.1 86.7 86.5 104 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 3.55 9.2 7.8 7.4 6.8 3.6 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 270.94 261 264 267 270 308 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 108.26 115 119 123 115 158 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Interest Rate 8.00 8 7.75 7.5 7.5 4.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 9.94 8.9 8.8 8.6 10.12 6.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 348764717.90 364000000 382000000 401000000 414153446 816000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Money Supply M2 1327235020.50 1439000000 1526000000 1599000000 1505777396 2637000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Money Supply M3 1370950779.30 1452000000 1562000000 1622000000 1541498266 2673000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 138316.60 137144 137087 137104 137108 137108 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 2418317868.00 2699000000 2783000000 2896000000 2904910094 5109000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Loans to Private Sector 821615070.00 864000000 891000000 918000000 922248136 1278000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 14.92 16.24 16.14 16.04 15.25 9 percent [+]
Lending Rate 8.50 8.5 8 7.5 7 5.25 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 192.12 198 199 199 200 202 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 528827224.00 534000000 556000000 571000000 529389713 875000000 TRY Thousand [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Balance of Trade -4160.00 -6040 -5500 -4200 -4809 -2910 USD Million [+]
Exports 10934.86 9460 11500 10600 10500 18000 USD Million [+]
Imports 15296.49 15500 17000 14800 15481 20900 USD Million [+]
Current Account -1684.00 -3840 -3550 -3240 -2220 -358 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.50 -3.9 -3.7 -4.4 -4.4 -2.8 percent [+]
External Debt 421434.00 408000 412000 416000 439364 469000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 112.72 107 108 109 110 117 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 1648.00 4540 -2700 -1500 2204 4740 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 16800.00 17000 16900 16700 16000 16500 USD Million [+]
Remittances 57.00 52.22 49.68 50.4 50.71 50.56 USD Million [+]
Tourism Revenues 2788.00 1150 1260 2900 783 1770 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 2449948.00 1280000 1630000 4080000 2749351 1220000 [+]
Gold Reserves 442.13 427 410 396 381 292 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 6.74 5.74 5.74 5.74 6.38 5.74 [+]
Weapons Sales 291.00 315 315 315 325 414 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 49.00 50 50 50 48.87 50 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 32.90 31.7 31.5 31.2 38.63 28.5 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.20 -1.6 -1.3 -1.8 -1.8 -0.4 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 768095.00 -18100000 -1000000 -2500000 -51826 -1680000 TRY THO [+]
Government Spending 4081536.20 4790000 3620000 3740000 3790000 5870000 TRY THO [+]
Government Revenues 42000585.00 39800000 39200000 38900000 40575308 42900000 TRY THO [+]
Government Debt 725419.00 722000 736000 742000 771716 825000 TRY Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 41232490.00 57900000 40200000 36400000 41510855 59700000 TRY THO [+]
Military Expenditure 17668.90 17866 17819 17772 17775 17664 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 4431.00 15500 17894 14225 7372 6450 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Business Confidence 103.70 101 98.6 95.4 97.2 104 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 48.80 50.6 51.9 51.7 48.56 51 [+]
Industrial Production -3.10 4.2 3.8 3.4 1.1 2.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -3.80 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.44 0.5 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.50 3.4 3.2 2.8 3.14 1 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 76.40 76.4 74.6 75.9 76.25 78 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -6132.90 -1002000 -18000 -95000 76000 -739000 TRY THO [+]
Bankruptcies 1096.00 2022 778 985 811 1710 Companies [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 83000.00 160000 84800 94500 68200 169000 [+]
Car Production 98008.00 77500 80100 84600 71500 87000 Units [+]
Car Registrations 80434.00 129000 103000 117500 88700 135000 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 3.52 3.8 4.2 3.4 8.62 4.4 percent [+]
Steel Production 2974.81 2700 2750 2820 2856 2730 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 4.30 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.58 2 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.39 4.37 4.39 4.39 4.38 4.47 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 55.00 51 50 50 50 47 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 69.00 55 54 54 64.51 51 [+]
Electricity Production 21176.00 23700 21900 22600 21900 24700 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 42.00 42 43 43 43 46 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 66.00 66 65 65 61.66 62 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 68.90 64.5 66.47 69.85 69.37 85.12 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.40 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.49 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.00 2.9 3.2 3 1.47 1.9 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 22104317.10 23600000 23200000 23300000 24000000 27800000 TRY THO [+]
Consumer Credit 409257643.00 409000000 417000000 429000000 444182670 603000000 TRY THO [+]
Private Sector Credit 1372356896.00 1378000000 1405000000 1435000000 1522557936 1783000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Economic Optimism Index 86.55 74.2 71.4 75.6 84.35 101 Index points [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 20.70 22 22.4 23.4 20.1 36 percent of GDP [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.49 1.45 1.42 1.44 1.39 1.84 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Construction Output 6.20 6.8 6.2 5.7 4.99 2.5 percent [+]
Housing Index 219.60 222 228 234 248 340 Index points [+]
New Home Sales 61677.00 79500 53600 51400 51148 89400 units [+]
Building Permits 64637.00 104544 89700 83400 67600 106000 [+]
Existing Home Sales 68597.00 68800 65000 59000 49800 78500 units [+]
Housing Starts 7362.00 11500 9650 9720 7160 14600 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 60.70 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.3 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 37.50 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.50 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Turkey including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Turkey economy. 12/7/2016