United Kingdom | Economic Forecasts | 2013-2015 Outlook

Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Markets Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Currency 1.68 Apr-14 1.65 May-14 1.7 1.73 1.74 1.7 1.67 1.68 1.67 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.67 Apr-14 2.61 May-14 3.26 3.28 3 3.22 3.5 3.8 3.99 [+]
Stock Market 6561.70 Apr-14 6556 May-14 6600 6607 6602 6609 6473 6863 7114 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
GDP Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
GDP per capita 37849.57 Dec-12 37708 Dec-13 37685 37660 37638 37617 69591 233955 6585126 [+]
GDP per capita PPP 32722.52 Dec-12 32606 Dec-13 32563 32539 32516 32496 60096 201826 5678718 [+]
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 Dec-13 0.92 Mar-14 0.92 0.98 0.8 0.8 0.9 2.75 2.74 [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.70 Dec-13 1.87 Mar-14 1.87 2.12 1.98 1.98 1.35 2.79 2.59 [+]
GDP Constant Prices 387138.00 Nov-13 389289 Mar-14 389289 392270 393770 394258 448322 593996 1316768 [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 55896.00 Nov-13 56518 Mar-14 56518 57713 57879 57798 53336 56804 55690 [+]
Gross National Product 400795.00 Nov-13 404889 Mar-14 404889 405531 405896 405069 456507 602155 1336035 [+]
GDP 2440.00 Dec-12 2472 Dec-13 2447 2448 2448 2449 4540 15322 431532 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Labour Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Population 63.26 Dec-12 64.05 Dec-13 64.18 64.36 64.54 64.72 65.45 68.94 75.38 [+]
Unemployment Rate 6.90 Feb-14 7.1 Mar-14 7.1 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.1 6.2 6.2 [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.70 Sep-13 2.77 Dec-13 2.77 2.82 2.81 2.77 2.74 4.77 5.74 [+]
Claimant Count Change -30.40 Mar-14 -41.93 Apr-14 -42.3 -42.46 -43.45 -39.64 -31.64 -34.98 -35.15 [+]
Employed Persons 29151.00 Dec-13 29212 Jan-14 29201 29315 29420 29508 46769 114585 1518481 [+]
Job Vacancies 588.00 Jan-14 595 Feb-14 597 616 624 624 577 588 586 [+]
Labour Costs 104.80 Nov-13 105 Mar-14 105 106 106 106 105 104 105 [+]
Productivity 100.50 Nov-13 101 Mar-14 101 101 101 101 116 153 337 [+]
Unemployed Persons 1174.80 Feb-14 1143 Mar-14 1159 1066 989 937 1018 1067 1169 [+]
Wages 479.00 Jan-14 479 Feb-14 477 481 482 484 488 497 500 [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 564.00 Jan-14 565 Feb-14 563 567 570 573 581 592 593 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 19.70 Dec-13 20.05 Jan-14 19.83 19.63 19.43 19.29 19.35 7.52 9.02 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 Jan-13 65 Dec-13 65 65 65 65 65 66 66 [+]
Retirement Age Women 61.50 Jan-13 61.54 Dec-13 62.11 62.2 62.28 62.28 62.8 66 66 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Prices Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Core Inflation Rate 1.60 Mar-14 1.79 Apr-14 1.52 1.39 1.31 1.31 1.58 3.6 3.7 [+]
Inflation Rate 1.60 Mar-14 1.65 Apr-14 1.71 1.41 1.29 1.3 1.88 3.79 3.88 [+]
Consumer Price Index (CPI) 127.70 Mar-14 128 Apr-14 128 129 129 130 141 166 247 [+]
Core Consumer Prices 123.03 Mar-14 123 Apr-14 123 124 124 125 136 163 246 [+]
Export Prices 104.60 Feb-14 103 Mar-14 104 101 100 99.31 103 103 102 [+]
GDP Deflator 106.23 Nov-13 106 Mar-14 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 127.36 Feb-14 127 Mar-14 127 127 127 127 126 114 41.43 [+]
Import Prices 106.00 Feb-14 106 Mar-14 106 103 102 101 104 104 104 [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 Mar-14 0.72 Apr-14 0.15 0.06 0.33 0.29 0.28 2.38 3.58 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Money Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Interest Rate 0.50 Apr-14 0.5 May-14 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.25 2 2 [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 403887.50 Apr-14 394134 May-14 109393 111682 110456 110456 90045 60081 50462 [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 110883.92 Mar-14 111458 Apr-14 106708 109751 111787 112999 107928 110411 111022 [+]
Interbank Rate 0.53 Mar-14 0.5 Apr-14 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.3 2 2 [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2232036.00 Dec-13 2231518 Mar-14 2231518 2220170 2210336 2203116 2184324 2207667 2206540 [+]
Money Supply M0 67303.00 Mar-14 67557 Apr-14 67571 68290 68971 69650 82848 120011 278379 [+]
Money Supply M1 1298817.00 Feb-14 1311000 Mar-14 1303713 1328961 1353842 1377076 1633944 2100939 4650542 [+]
Money Supply M2 1428946.00 Feb-14 1434992 Mar-14 1430432 1448916 1467520 1485926 1777446 2525730 5618930 [+]
Money Supply M3 2423859.00 Feb-14 2438780 Mar-14 2418326 2419416 2423640 2431764 2806015 3690569 8153576 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Trade Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Current Account to GDP -4.40 Dec-13 -4.53 Dec-14 -5.45 -5.62 -5.75 -4.45 -6.12 -0.19 -0.05 [+]
Current Account -22360.00 Nov-13 -23689 Mar-14 -23689 -24866 -25175 -23352 -22646 -22983 -22975 [+]
Balance of Trade -2058.00 Feb-14 -2162 Mar-14 -2129 -2187 -2123 -1856 -1352 -2075 -6768 [+]
Exports 40592.00 Feb-14 40572 Mar-14 41089 40930 40856 41209 48485 63466 138032 [+]
Imports 42650.00 Feb-14 42841 Mar-14 43217 43116 42979 43065 49837 65540 144801 [+]
Crude Oil Production 714.00 Oct-13 842 Nov-13 648 714 861 820 862 863 863 [+]
External Debt -21222.00 Dec-13 86978 Mar-14 86978 105772 90408 70127 37332 53532 52729 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 9170.00 Nov-13 2703 Mar-14 2703 2613 3475 3551 3552 3557 3557 [+]
Terms of Trade 98.70 Feb-14 98.72 Mar-14 98.66 98.36 98.15 97.96 98.19 98.14 98.14 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Government Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Government Debt To GDP 88.70 Dec-12 94.3 Dec-13 93.51 94.33 96.9 96.9 98.6 106 109 [+]
Credit Rating 97.96 Dec-13 [+]
Government Budget Value -204.00 Feb-14 4366 Mar-14 4366 -586 819 4101 3914 4000 4001 [+]
Government Spending 86654.00 Nov-13 87357 Mar-14 87357 88178 88594 88992 104011 150533 391034 [+]
Government Budget -6.10 Dec-12 -5.5 Dec-13 -4.84 -4.71 -4.5 -4.5 -4 -2.81 -2.55 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Business Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Business Confidence 21.00 Feb-14 36.45 Jun-14 26.76 36.45 42.38 33.24 16.71 46.91 89.52 [+]
Industrial Production 2.70 Feb-14 2.92 Mar-14 2.92 4.73 4.83 4.22 0.03 3.84 3.82 [+]
Bankruptcies 3552.00 Dec-13 3884 Mar-14 3884 3898 3937 3952 4087 160 5.77 [+]
Capacity Utilization 46.00 Feb-14 41.25 Jun-14 46.27 41.25 39.56 40.61 50.58 40.58 50.55 [+]
Car Registrations 464824.00 Mar-14 203091 Apr-14 322275 225861 348772 163009 189508 249362 550910 [+]
Changes in Inventories 1881.00 Nov-13 3622 Mar-14 3622 4050 3711 3116 3215 3223 3210 [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.90 Feb-14 0.18 Mar-14 0.18 0.26 0.39 0.49 0.48 3.78 3.78 [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 55.30 Mar-14 59.42 Apr-14 60.11 59.29 59.02 59.56 57.61 59.04 58.9 [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.80 Feb-14 3.43 Mar-14 3.43 5.04 5.29 4.73 0.04 3.88 4.2 [+]
New Orders 12590.00 Nov-13 13083 Mar-14 13083 13167 13176 13117 12891 12979 12980 [+]
Services Pmi 57.60 Mar-14 61.26 Apr-14 59 61.81 62.5 59.8 79.14 127 221 [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index 37.20 Mar-14 36.59 Apr-14 52.92 56.17 52.89 49.03 32.84 38.18 40.4 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Consumer Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Retail Sales MoM 1.70 Feb-14 -0.03 Mar-14 -0.03 0.5 0.65 0.55 0.17 3.77 4.02 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.70 Feb-14 2.22 Mar-14 2.22 5.07 5.29 5.26 3.88 4.01 4.31 [+]
Consumer Confidence -5.00 Mar-14 -4.86 Apr-14 -4.56 1.13 2.77 0.01 -9.8 -0.27 -0.05 [+]
Bank Lending Rate 1.50 Apr-14 1.48 May-14 1.31 1.6 1.72 1.59 1.55 1.5 1.48 [+]
Consumer Spending 249105.00 Nov-13 250950 Mar-14 250950 252583 253611 254174 292475 381318 841913 [+]
Disposable Personal Income 253715.00 Nov-13 256173 Mar-14 256173 257115 259359 259738 300277 395977 874820 [+]
Personal Savings 5.00 Nov-13 4.95 Mar-14 4.95 5.08 4 4 4 2.45 1.15 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Taxes Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Corporate Tax Rate 23.00 Jan-14 23 Jun-14 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 Jan-14 45 Dec-14 42 41 41 45 40 40 40 [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 Jan-14 20 Jun-14 20 19 18 18 16 11 10 [+]
Social Security Rate 25.80 Jan-13 26 Dec-13 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.80 Jan-13 14 Dec-13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.00 Jan-13 12 Dec-13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Housing Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Construction Output 1.60 Feb-14 8.28 Feb-14 10.17 10.84 11.59 9.81 9.04 17.18 31.43 [+]
Housing Index 576.90 Mar-14 581 Apr-14 588 597 604 604 600 585 582 [+]
Housing Starts 27880.00 Nov-13 32789 Mar-14 32789 38792 36471 33054 30422 31782 31944 [+]
Mortgage Approvals 70.30 Feb-14 76.42 Mar-14 76.42 80.29 81.52 83.31 73.44 77.06 76.98 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Labour Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Minimum Wages 1189.90 Dec-13 1205 Jan-14 1200 1195 1186 1181 1210 1197 1201 [+]

Trading Economics forecasts are driven by our own analysts’ expectations and technically projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. First, we model the past behaviour of a time series by using vast amounts of historical data. Then, we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account, our own analyst’s assessments and future expectations. While we work hard to make our predictions accurate, please note that past performance of our forecast model is not necessarily indicative of future results. Moreover, please take into account that because countries publish their data releases in different dates and sometimes with significant delays we may have to project past data which has already some time but was not yet released by official sources. If you have any question please email us at contact@tradingeconomics.com



RELATED NEWS

UK Unemployment Rate Down to 5-Year Low  
In the three months to February of 2014, UK jobless rate fell to 6.9 percent, down from 7.2 percent in the previous period. Pay growth rose 1.7 percent and caught up with inflation for the first time in nearly four years.
UK Inflation Rate Slows Further in March  
UK annual consumer prices fell to its lowest in over four year in March of 2014. The inflation rate decelerated for the sixth consecutive month to 1.6 percent, down from 1.7 percent in February, due to lower fuel, clothing and furniture prices.
BoE Leaves Rate Steady  
At its April 10th, 2014 meeting, Bank of England decided to leave the benchmark interest rate on hold at 0.5 percent and the size of its asset purchase programme unchanged at £375 billion, as widely expected.
UK Trade Deficit Narrows in February  
Britain’s goods and services trade gap decreased to £ 2.06 billion in February of 2014, down from a revised £ 2.2 billion deficit in the previous month, as both exports and imports fell.
UK Economy Advances 1.7% in 2013  
The UK GDP expanded at its fastest pace in three years in 2013. Final estimates showed the economy advanced 1.7 percent, compared with a meager 0.3 percent expansion in 2012. Between Q4 2012 and Q4 2013, the GDP increased by 2.7 percent, unrevised from the previous estimate.
UK GDP Growth Confirmed at 0.7% in Q4  
UK economy advanced 0.7 percent quarter on quarter in the last three months of 2013, in line with previous estimates. Full-year GDP growth in 2013 was revised down to 1.7 percent from 1.8 percent recorded earlier.
UK Inflation Rate Slows to 4-Year Low  
In February of 2014, UK’s annual consumer prices eased to 1.7 percent, the lowest rate since October of 2009, dipping further below the Bank of England's target. The biggest downward contribution was transport cost, mainly fuel prices, which showed its biggest drop since September 2009.
UK Unemployment Rate Steady at 7.2%  
In the three months to January of 2014, UK jobless rate remained unchanged at 7.2 percent, after rising to that level in the three months to December of 2013. Claimant count decreased more than expected and average weekly earnings picked up.
UK Trade Deficit Widens 76% YoY in January  
UK’s trade deficit increased sharply to £ 2.56 billion in January of 2014, compared with a £ 1.45 billion gap a year earlier and a revised £ 0.66 billion deficit in December of 2013. Exports of goods and services fell to a 14-month low hurt by lower sales of aircraft and chemicals.
BoE Leaves Monetary Policy Unchanged  
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee decided on March 6th 2014 to maintain the bank rate on hold at 0.5 percent, as widely expected. The stock of asset purchases was also left unchanged at 375 billion pounds.
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LATEST NEWS

Chile Leaves Monetary Policy Unchanged  
At its April 17th, 2014 meeting, Central Bank of Chile left the benchmark interest rate on hold at 4 percent, following last month's cut, citing low output and demand, but hinted possible future rate cuts, depending on domestic and external conditions.
Russia Unemployment Drops in March  
Russian jobless rate fell for the first time in four months to 5.4 percent, after remaining stable at 5.6 percent in the previous two months.
Canada Inflation Rises Above Forecasts in March  
The annual consumer prices in Canada accelerated to 1.5 percent in March of 2014 following a 1.1 increase in the previous month, as energy prices surged.
US Jobless Claims Rise Slightly  
In the week ending April 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 304,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 300,000 to 302,000. There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.
Brazil Unemployment Rate Down to 5%  
In March of 2014, Brazil’s jobless rate fell by 0.1 percentage point to 5 percent, below market forecasts. A year earlier, unemployment reached 5.7 percent.
Dutch Unemployment Rate Falls for the First Time in 2014  
In March of 2014, Netherlands’ seasonally adjusted jobless rate fell to 8.7 percent from 8.8 percent in the previous month and 8.1 percent a year earlier, as more people left permanently the labor market rather than found jobs.
Singaporean Trade Surplus Narrows Sharply in March  
The trade surplus decreased 51.1 percent in March of 2014 over a year earlier and 47.2 percent from February to SGD 2.3 billion. Imports rose at a faster pace than exports, as sales of pharmaceuticals and electronics fell, while shipments of petrochemicals and re-exports contributed to overall increase.
Mozambique Leaves Lending Rate Steady at 8.25%  
At its April 16th, 2014 meeting, Bank of Mozambique left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.25 percent for the sixth consecutive meeting, saying this was consistent with meeting domestic economic targets for 2014.
Spanish Trade Deficit Narrows to 4-Month Low  
In February of 2014, Spanish trade gap decreased to € 1.62 billion, down from € 2.82 billion in the previous month. Compared with the same month a year earlier, the trade deficit widened 37 percent.
Angolan Inflation Rate Down To 7.32% in March  
The annual consumer prices in Angola decelerated for the second consecutive month to 7.32 percent in March of 2014, from 7.48 percent recorded in February of 2014.
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This page includes economic forecasts for the United Kingdom. 4/20/2014





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