United Kingdom | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.51 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.80 5 5.1 5.2 4.44 6.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.90 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 1.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -1971.00 -2300 -1600 -5200 -1100 -1000 GBP Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 89.20 87.5 87 87 90.16 79 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Currency 1.26 1.23 1.22 1.2 1.19 0.99 [+]
Stock Market 6946.25 6730 6660 6590 6520 5440 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.44 1.42 1.44 1.45 1.47 1.69 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.51 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.30 2 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.8 percent [+]
GDP 2848.76 2800 3050 3050 2705 3250 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 469056.00 471270 473670 476090 478650 511230 GBP Million [+]
Gross National Product 473198.00 467670 470600 473520 485131 514390 GBP Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 78986.00 77860 78130 78390 77833 81940 GBP Million [+]
GDP per capita 40933.46 41480 41630 41770 41920 43870 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 38657.79 38680 38690 38700 38554 40100 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 3164.00 3210 3250 3240 3214 3350 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Construction 25574.00 25610 25760 25840 25168 27300 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 40945.00 41940 41990 42050 40825 44700 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Mining 8061.00 7560 7570 7580 8226 7990 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 18961.00 19800 20190 20450 18804 23400 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Services 333794.00 333600 335000 336600 341806 374500 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Transport 17837.00 18060 18120 18200 18276 19900 GBP Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.80 5 5.1 5.2 4.44 6.7 percent [+]
Employed Persons 30564.00 30750 30830 30890 30689 31800 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 803.30 777 782 787 945 815 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 8557.00 8560 8580 8590 8600 8960 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 23242.00 23390 23450 23500 23550 23900 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 74.50 74.6 74.67 74.72 74.77 75.02 percent [+]
Claimant Count Change 9.90 -2 -4 2 5 6 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 78.30 78.28 78.24 78.23 78.22 82 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.30 1.3 1.4 1.4 0.81 2 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 13.00 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.6 percent [+]
Productivity 102.40 102 102 102 102 106 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 101.70 102 103 104 104 110 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 757.00 767 775 778 780 792 Thousand [+]
Wages 505.00 506 508 511 512 541 GBP/Week [+]
Wage Growth 2.30 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 3.4 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 589.00 589 591 593 595 636 GBP/Week [+]
Minimum Wages 7.20 7.2 7.2 7.5 7.5 8.7 GBP/Hour [+]
Population 64.88 65.57 65.72 65.85 65.92 67.36 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 62.30 62.3 62.3 62.3 62.3 62.3 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1190.00 1200 1250 1250 1300 1550 GBP/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 2140.00 2180 2260 2260 2290 2490 GBP/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 1320.00 1360 1400 1400 1440 1720 GBP/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 884.00 900 940 940 980 1370 GBP/Month [+]
Average Weekly Hours 32.10 32.1 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.3 Hours [+]
Employment Change 0.50 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.39 1.1 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Inflation Rate 0.90 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.20 104 106 108 110 125 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 101.20 104 106 108 109 122 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 101.90 105 107 109 111 126 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.20 1.6 1.8 1.9 2 2.5 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 103.84 106 107 108 105 122 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.10 1.3 1.5 1.7 2 2.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 96.10 95.8 94.2 92.6 91.4 95 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 94.90 96 98 99 101 108 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -2.40 -0.8 0.2 0.7 1 1.7 percent [+]
Producer Prices 108.30 109 109 111 112 127 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 101.10 106 107 109 101 123 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 1.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.38 0.32 0.38 0.52 0.65 2.56 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 80041.00 83400 85700 87200 84780 119400 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1611597.00 1655300 1696800 1739800 1784168 2510800 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1618041.00 1668900 1707400 1746000 1689930 2529100 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2603794.00 2623500 2650900 2698500 2729200 3110000 GBP Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 145908.99 151452 154349 151934 154271 193256 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 3534438.00 3590000 3640000 3680000 3730000 4110000 GBP Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 405132.00 411000 415000 418000 404815 458000 GBP Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2243678.00 2260000 2280000 2300000 2310999 2620000 GBP Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 1.25 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 229.50 227 226 226 225 218 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Balance of Trade -1971.00 -2300 -1600 -5200 -1100 -1000 GBP Million [+]
Exports 46412.00 42400 44300 43100 43000 43700 GBP Million [+]
Imports 48383.00 44700 45900 48300 44100 44700 GBP Million [+]
Current Account -28684.00 -30810 -29540 -17770 -19320 -22840 GBP Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -5.20 -4.7 -4.5 -4.5 -5.25 -1.5 percent [+]
External Debt 6055168.00 6164500 6226500 6254900 6297400 6811100 GBP Million [+]
Terms of Trade 101.30 100 98.9 97.5 96.4 100 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 14279.00 45400 36800 11700 17800 36900 GBP Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 12203.00 14000 36000 -9000 -500 15900 GBP Million [+]
Gold Reserves 310.29 310 310 310 310 310 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 978.00 965 959 954 978 880 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 5.08 5.61 5.61 5.61 4.97 5.61 [+]
Tourism Revenues 2110.00 1950 1470 2150 2460 2490 GBP Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 3120.00 2650 2780 3410 3290 2990 Thousand [+]
Weapons Sales 1214.00 1421 1338 1255 1222 1261 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 89.20 87.5 87 87 90.16 79 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.40 -4.1 -4.5 -4.5 -4.5 -1.2 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -3413.00 8970 16620 14560 16850 9980 GBP Million [+]
Government Spending 92029.00 92070 92330 92540 93125 95590 GBP Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 43.20 43.4 42.7 42.7 42.7 44.3 percent [+]
Government Debt -4301.00 -6870 -6250 -7050 -8960 -5460 GBP Million [+]
Military Expenditure 59729.60 59662 60172 60682 60959 63316 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 3100.00 3120 3020 3040 3840 2210 persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Business Confidence -8.00 -21 -7 -15 -11 1 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 53.40 52.6 52.2 51.8 51.5 53.1 [+]
Services PMI 55.20 54.2 55.2 54.8 53.4 54.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production -1.10 1.7 1.9 1.6 -1.02 1.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -1.30 0.3 0.5 0.1 -0.1 0.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -0.40 1.7 2 1.8 8.91 2.2 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 80.70 80.99 80.76 80.63 80.51 80.19 percent [+]
New Orders 13341.00 13850 14160 14420 13202 15980 GBP Million [+]
Factory Orders -3.00 -6 -2 -4 -5 -2 Net Balance [+]
Changes in Inventories 3113.00 1487 880 1168 1249 288 GBP Million [+]
Bankruptcies 3633.00 3630 3640 3620 3520 2800 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 102743.00 100000 102000 105000 106000 113000 GBP Million [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -47.40 -16 7.5 -11 -4 11.6 [+]
Car Production 151795.00 118000 162000 160000 161000 132000 Units [+]
Car Registrations 184101.00 185000 522000 259000 468000 196000 Cars [+]
Small Business Sentiment 11.00 -15 5 2 4 2 [+]
Steel Production 707.00 620 690 630 610 850 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -8.70 3.2 2.8 2.9 1.8 2 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.49 5.49 5.46 5.51 5.51 5.57 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 7.00 7 9 6 6 6 [+]
Composite Pmi 54.80 53.8 53.4 54.1 53.65 51.8 [+]
Corruption Index 81.00 81 82 82 81.89 85 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 10.00 10 9 9 8.51 6 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 7.00 7 5 8 8 5 [+]
Electricity Production 24410.00 29800 26700 24700 25900 30200 Gigawatt-hour [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -8.00 -6 -3 -2 -5 2 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 1.90 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 7.40 4.1 3.5 3.3 3 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 307503.00 309000 311000 312000 313804 323000 GBP Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 312504.00 326200 330100 339200 320390 424400 GBP Million [+]
Personal Savings 5.10 6 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.9 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 1.25 1.15 1.08 1.12 1.23 1.57 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 87.40 87.25 87.09 86.52 88.34 78 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 125.20 125 124 124 126 115 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 1618.00 1480 1590 1670 1560 2430 GBP Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.41 1.46 1.47 1.46 1.44 1.41 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Housing Starts 40970.00 34780 37320 42450 40520 44750 [+]
Construction Output 0.70 -0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.4 percent [+]
Housing Index 705.60 6.2 700 720 740 920 Index Points [+]
Mortgage Approvals 67.52 64.8 68.3 70.2 71.5 97.6 Thousand [+]
Home Ownership Rate 63.50 63.5 63 63 62.52 61.5 percent [+]
Construction Orders 5.50 1.2 4.5 1.5 2.4 1 percent [+]
Construction Pmi 52.80 53.8 55.3 54.8 54.6 52.4 [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 19.5 19.5 19.5 17 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 21 21 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 25.80 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.80 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy. 12/9/2016