United Kingdom | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.80 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 6.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.60 1.4 1.5 1.7 2 2.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.5 1.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -4167.00 -1600 -5200 -1100 -2100 -1000 GBP Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 89.20 87 87 90.06 87 79 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 1.24 1.2 1.18 1.17 1.28 0.98 [+]
Stock Market 7198.44 6960 6890 6820 6750 5680 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.43 1.33 1.34 1.35 0.86 1.56 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.20 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.8 percent [+]
GDP 2858.00 3050 3050 3050 3050 3250 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 468771.00 473670 476090 478650 480960 511230 GBP Million [+]
Gross National Product 482897.00 470600 473520 492582 479360 514390 GBP Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 78402.00 78130 78390 77374 78910 81940 GBP Million [+]
GDP per capita 41187.68 41630 41770 41366 42060 43870 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 38865.59 38690 38700 38592 38740 40100 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 3154.00 3250 3240 3201 3250 3350 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Construction 26025.00 25760 25840 25712 26120 27300 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 40921.00 41990 42050 40861 42830 44700 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Mining 7991.00 7570 7580 8142 7610 7990 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 18945.00 20190 20450 18774 21170 23400 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Services 334410.00 335000 336600 343246 339900 374500 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Transport 17784.00 18120 18200 18186 18370 19900 GBP Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.80 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 6.2 percent [+]
Employed Persons 30585.00 30830 30890 30601 31200 31800 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 797.80 782 787 856 794 815 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 8551.00 8580 8590 8600 8620 8960 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 23251.00 23450 23500 23550 23590 23900 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 74.50 74.35 74.33 74.32 74.3 74.24 percent [+]
Claimant Count Change -10.10 -4 2 5 2 6 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 78.30 78.27 78.25 78.24 79 82 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.30 1.4 1.4 0.81 1.6 2 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.60 13.6 13.7 13.8 14 14.6 percent [+]
Productivity 102.40 102 102 102 103 106 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 102.80 103 104 104 105 110 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 748.00 775 778 780 783 792 Thousand [+]
Wages 509.00 508 511 512 515 541 GBP/Week [+]
Wage Growth 2.80 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 3.4 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 587.00 589 591 593 595 636 GBP/Week [+]
Minimum Wages 7.20 7.2 7.2 7.5 7.5 9 GBP/Hour [+]
Population 64.88 65.72 65.85 65.92 66.03 67.36 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 62.30 62.3 62.3 62.3 62.3 62.3 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1190.00 1250 1250 1300 1300 1550 GBP/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 2140.00 2260 2260 2290 2290 2490 GBP/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 1320.00 1360 1400 1400 1440 1720 GBP/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 884.00 900 940 940 980 1370 GBP/Month [+]
Average Weekly Hours 31.90 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.3 Hours [+]
Employment Change 0.20 0.6 0.6 0.39 0.7 1.1 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 1.60 1.4 1.5 1.7 2 2.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.90 106 108 110 114 125 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 101.90 106 108 109 112 122 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 102.60 107 109 111 114 126 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.60 1.8 1.9 2 2.6 2.5 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 103.84 107 108 105 110 122 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.70 1.5 1.7 2 2.5 2.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 98.00 94.2 92.6 91.4 92 95 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 96.90 98 99 101 102 108 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -1.10 0.2 0.7 1 1.6 1.7 percent [+]
Producer Prices 108.50 109 111 112 116 127 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 103.70 107 109 101 112 123 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.5 1.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.36 0.38 0.52 0.65 0.78 2.56 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 80449.00 85700 87200 84705 91700 119400 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1613935.00 1696800 1739800 1727989 1830200 2510800 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1625798.00 1707400 1746000 1688756 1843900 2529100 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2636269.00 2650900 2698500 2729200 2764500 3110000 GBP Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 136586.00 154349 138167 138137 162566 193256 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 3544473.00 3640000 3680000 3730000 3780000 4110000 GBP Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 405132.00 415000 418000 404815 423000 458000 GBP Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2243678.00 2280000 2300000 2310999 2340000 2620000 GBP Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 1.25 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 229.50 227 226 226 225 218 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -4167.00 -1600 -5200 -1100 -2100 -1000 GBP Million [+]
Exports 47344.00 44300 43100 43000 42700 43700 GBP Million [+]
Imports 51511.00 45900 48300 44100 44800 44700 GBP Million [+]
Current Account -25494.00 -29540 -17770 -19320 -28230 -22840 GBP Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -5.20 -4.5 -4.5 -5.11 -4 -1.5 percent [+]
External Debt 6176450.00 6226500 6254900 6297400 6345500 6811100 GBP Million [+]
Terms of Trade 101.10 98.9 97.5 96.4 97.5 100 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 22430.00 36800 11700 17800 42100 36900 GBP Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 25292.00 36000 -9000 -500 14900 15900 GBP Million [+]
Gold Reserves 310.29 310 310 310 310 310 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 978.00 959 954 978 950 880 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 5.08 5.61 5.61 5 5.61 5.61 [+]
Tourism Revenues 1860.00 1470 2150 2460 2080 2490 GBP Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 3280.00 2780 3410 3290 2760 2990 Thousand [+]
Weapons Sales 1214.00 1421 1338 1255 1222 1261 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 89.20 87 87 90.06 87 79 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.40 -3.8 -4.5 -4.5 -4.5 -0.8 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 13525.00 16620 14560 16850 9230 9980 GBP Million [+]
Government Spending 91253.00 92330 92540 92181 93050 95590 GBP Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 43.20 43.44 43.19 42.94 42.7 44.3 percent [+]
Government Debt -12210.00 -6250 -7050 -8960 -6540 -5460 GBP Million [+]
Military Expenditure 59729.60 59662 60172 60682 60959 63316 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 2900.00 3020 3040 3840 2910 2210 persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence -8.00 -7 -15 -11 -12 1 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 56.10 52.2 51.8 51.5 51.1 53.1 [+]
Services PMI 56.20 55.2 54.8 53.4 52.9 54.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 2.00 1.9 1.6 -1.02 1.4 1.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 2.10 0.5 0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.20 2 1.8 9.02 1.9 2.2 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 80.70 80.76 80.63 80.51 80.41 80.19 percent [+]
New Orders 13056.00 14160 14420 13264 14880 15980 GBP Million [+]
Factory Orders 0.00 -2 -4 -5 -6 -2 Net Balance [+]
Changes in Inventories 1636.00 631 514 686 515 237 GBP Million [+]
Bankruptcies 3633.00 3640 3620 3520 3400 2800 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 102743.00 102000 105000 106000 107000 113000 GBP Million [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -42.40 7.5 -11 -4 -8 11.6 [+]
Car Production 169247.00 162000 160000 161000 121000 132000 Units [+]
Car Registrations 178022.00 522000 259000 468000 187000 196000 Cars [+]
Small Business Sentiment 11.00 5 2 4 6 2 [+]
Steel Production 598.00 690 630 610 680 850 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 1.30 2.8 2.9 1.8 2.8 2 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.49 5.46 5.51 5.51 5.51 5.57 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 7.00 7 9 6 6 6 [+]
Composite Pmi 56.70 53.4 54.1 53.89 53.8 51.8 [+]
Corruption Index 81.00 82 82 80.61 82 85 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 10.00 9 9 9.78 9 6 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 7.00 5 8 8 8 5 [+]
Electricity Production 28636.00 26700 24700 25900 29900 30200 Gigawatt-hour [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -7.00 -3 -2 -5 -8 2 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -1.90 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.30 3.5 3.3 3 2.6 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 307146.00 311000 312000 313436 313000 323000 GBP Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 310245.00 330100 339200 315405 350200 424400 GBP Million [+]
Personal Savings 5.60 6.4 6.6 6.8 7 7.9 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 1.25 1.08 1.12 1.23 1.22 1.57 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 87.60 87.09 86.52 88.63 85.95 78 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 125.20 124 124 125 123 115 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 1926.00 1590 1670 1719 1880 2430 GBP Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.44 1.47 1.46 1.44 1.43 1.41 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Housing Starts 40970.00 37320 42450 40520 36210 44750 [+]
Construction Output 1.50 0.3 0.5 0.7 1 1.4 percent [+]
Housing Index 720.10 700 720 740 760 920 Index Points [+]
Mortgage Approvals 67.51 68.3 70.2 71.5 72.5 97.6 Thousand [+]
Home Ownership Rate 63.50 63 63 63.17 63 61.5 percent [+]
Construction Orders 5.50 4.5 1.5 2.4 1 1 percent [+]
Construction Pmi 54.20 55.3 54.8 54.6 54.4 52.4 [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 19.5 19.5 17 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 25.80 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.80 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy. 1/22/2017