United Kingdom | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

UK GDP growth is expected to ease in 2017 mainly due to slower consumer spending as rising inflation squeezes household budget. Still, the unemployment rate is expected to remain close to its equilibrium rate of around 4.5 percent in the near term although wage growth is likely to remain low, resulting in falling real wages. Inflation is forecast to peak just below 3 percent in the fourth quarter of the year. In addition, business investment and exports are likely to be supported by depreciation of the sterling and the expected pickup in global growth. The Bank of England is likely to start raising rates in mid-2018. As for the UK public finances, government net borrowing is expected to fall this year to 2.6 percent of GDP amid steady economic growth and strong tax receipts. This page has economic forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.60 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.70 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -4900.00 -5200 -1100 -2100 -3800 -1000 GBP Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 89.30 87 87 87 88 85 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 1.29 1.28 1.23 1.21 1.2 1 [+]
Stock Market 7527.44 7250 7180 6960 7030 5860 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.04 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.16 1.34 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.00 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.9 percent [+]
GDP 2861.10 3050 3050 3050 3110 3250 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 471388.00 476090 478650 480960 482820 511230 GBP Million [+]
Gross National Product 492534.00 496520 499580 504360 511570 520390 GBP Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 78054.00 78890 78910 79110 79210 81940 GBP Million [+]
GDP per capita 41182.60 41670 41760 42060 42100 43870 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 38509.21 39200 39400 39740 39820 41100 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 3111.00 3240 3230 3250 3130 3350 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Construction 26634.00 25840 25900 26120 26495 27300 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 41817.00 42050 42500 42830 42039 44700 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Mining 7404.00 7580 7590 7610 7448 7990 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 18903.00 20450 20870 21170 18790 23400 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Services 337881.00 339600 340200 341900 343209 374500 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Transport 18280.00 18200 18290 18370 18487 19900 GBP Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.60 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.1 percent [+]
Employed Persons 30747.00 30890 30940 31200 31250 31800 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 792.80 787 792 794 796 815 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 8457.00 8590 8600 8620 8670 8960 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 23490.00 23500 23550 23590 23610 23990 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 74.80 74.7 74.6 74.5 75.46 74.1 percent [+]
Claimant Count Change 19.40 2 5 2 6 6 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 78.50 78.5 78.7 79 79.2 82 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.20 1.5 1.5 1.6 0.91 2.4 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.90 13.7 13.8 14 14.1 14.6 percent [+]
Labour Costs 102.60 104 104 105 105 110 Index Points [+]
Productivity 102.30 103 104 104 105 110 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 777.00 778 780 783 784 792 Thousand [+]
Wages 512.00 511 512 514 516 541 GBP/Week [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 591.00 592 593 595 597 636 GBP/Week [+]
Wage Growth 2.40 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 3 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 7.50 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 9 GBP/Hour [+]
Population 65.38 65.85 65.92 66.03 66.12 67.36 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 63.50 63.5 63.5 63.5 63.8 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 66 [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1190.00 1250 1300 1300 1310 1550 GBP/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 2140.00 2260 2290 2290 2310 2490 GBP/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 1152.50 1200 1240 1240 1290 1520 GBP/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1043.60 1080 1120 1120 1170 1470 GBP/Month [+]
Average Weekly Hours 32.20 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.21 32.3 Hours [+]
Employment Change 0.10 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.32 0.4 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.70 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.16 0.5 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 102.90 106 108 110 112 134 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 102.95 106 108 110 112 132 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 103.40 105 107 109 111 133 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.40 1.9 2 2.2 2.1 2.4 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 104.90 107 109 111 113 132 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.60 4 3.6 3.2 3 2.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 101.00 97 96 94 95 95 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 100.30 99 101 102 103 108 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.50 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.7 2 percent [+]
Producer Prices 110.30 113 115 116 118 137 Index Points [+]
Inflation Expectations 2.90 2.9 3 2.9 2.8 2.6 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 101.40 102 102 103 103 107 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 105.30 106 108 109 111 123 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.75 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.30 0.52 0.65 0.78 0.82 2.56 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 81842.00 85200 88900 91700 93200 119400 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1641919.00 1739800 1776000 1830200 1865000 2510800 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1643309.00 1746000 1781000 1843900 1885000 2529100 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2703241.00 2698500 2729200 2764500 2807000 3110000 GBP Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 152448.49 147000 154000 159000 162000 193000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 3754432.00 3680000 3730000 3780000 3820000 4110000 GBP Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 405132.00 418000 420000 423000 425000 458000 GBP Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2257725.00 2300000 2320000 2340000 2360000 2620000 GBP Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 1.25 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 229.50 226 225 224 224 218 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -4900.00 -5200 -1100 -2100 -3800 -1000 GBP Million [+]
Exports 49022.00 43100 43000 42700 43300 43700 GBP Million [+]
Imports 53922.00 48300 44100 44800 47100 44700 GBP Million [+]
Current Account -12088.00 -17770 -19320 -27230 -21210 -22840 GBP Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.40 -4 -4 -4 -3.7 -1.5 percent [+]
External Debt 6085392.00 6254900 6297400 6345500 6372200 6811100 GBP Million [+]
Terms of Trade 100.70 97.5 96.4 97.5 101 100 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 51392.00 11700 17800 42100 12100 36900 GBP Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 110946.00 -9000 -500 14900 44100 15900 GBP Million [+]
Gold Reserves 310.29 310 310 310 310 310 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 969.00 950 950 950 950 880 BBL/D/1K [+]
Weapons Sales 1214.00 1421 1338 1255 1222 1261 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 5.08 5.08 5.08 5.08 5.08 5.08 [+]
Tourism Revenues 1510.00 2150 2460 2080 1400 2490 GBP Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 2920.00 3410 3290 2760 2680 2990 Thousand [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 89.30 87 87 87 88 85 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.00 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.9 -0.9 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 1705.00 14560 16850 9230 19700 9980 GBP Million [+]
Government Spending 91294.00 92540 92750 93050 93300 95590 GBP Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 42.10 43.4 43.4 43.4 43.6 44.3 percent [+]
Government Debt -9648.00 -7050 -8960 -6540 -3250 -5460 GBP Million [+]
Military Expenditure 59729.60 59662 60172 60682 60959 63316 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 2815.00 3040 3840 2910 3070 2210 persons [+]
Government Revenues 57936.00 54560 53200 55510 57020 61870 GBP Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 1.00 10 6 4 7 2 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 57.30 53.8 51.1 51.5 52.2 53.1 [+]
Services PMI 55.80 52.8 51.4 51.9 52.1 54.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 1.40 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.8 2.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.50 0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 2.30 1.8 2 1.9 2.1 2.3 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 82.50 81.9 82 82.1 82.2 81.7 percent [+]
New Orders 12704.00 14420 14650 14880 14970 15980 GBP Million [+]
Factory Orders 9.00 5 2 -2 -4 -2 Net Balance [+]
Changes in Inventories 12.00 261 593 218 299 222 GBP Million [+]
Bankruptcies 3967.00 3620 3520 3400 3610 4000 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 105484.00 105000 106000 107000 108000 113000 GBP Million [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -51.00 -26 -18 -6 2 11.6 [+]
Car Production 170691.00 160000 161000 121000 161500 132000 Units [+]
Car Registrations 152076.00 259000 468000 187000 224102 196000 Cars [+]
Small Business Sentiment 16.00 2 4 6 5 2 [+]
Steel Production 649.00 630 610 680 670 850 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Private Investment 0.60 1.29 0.95 0.84 0.56 0.74 percent [+]
Mining Production 0.60 2.9 1.8 2.8 2.6 2 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.51 5.59 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 7.00 7 7 7 6 5 [+]
Composite Pmi 56.20 54.1 53.8 53.6 53.9 52.8 [+]
Corruption Index 81.00 82 82 82 83 85 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 10.00 9 9 9 8 6 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 7.00 6 6 6 6 5 [+]
Electricity Production 29277.00 24700 25900 29900 26800 30200 Gigawatt-hour [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -7.00 -2 -5 -8 -7 2 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 2.30 0.2 0.1 0.4 -0.3 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.00 3.3 3 2.6 2.8 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 309169.00 312000 313000 314000 315000 323000 GBP Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 309295.00 316200 321400 327200 332500 394400 GBP Million [+]
Personal Savings 3.30 4.5 5.2 6.8 7 7.9 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 2.25 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 87.60 86.5 86.2 85.9 85.7 78 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 126.42 124 123 123 123 115 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 1624.00 1370 1510 1680 1770 2430 GBP Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.53 1.46 1.44 1.43 1.45 1.41 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Starts 35580.00 42450 40520 36210 41050 44750 [+]
Construction Output 2.40 2.1 2.3 2 1.7 1.8 percent [+]
Housing Index 710.90 722 732 742 751 890 Index Points [+]
Mortgage Approvals 66.84 70.2 71.5 72.5 73.6 97.6 Thousand [+]
Mortgage Applications 40750.00 42300 43500 44900 45300 52600 Units [+]
Home Ownership Rate 63.50 63 63 63 63.1 61.5 percent [+]
Construction Orders 0.00 1.5 2.4 1 1.6 1 percent [+]
Construction Pmi 53.10 52 51.8 51.5 51.6 52.4 [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 19.00 19 19 19 19 17 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 25.80 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.80 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]