United Kingdom | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.90 5.1 5 5.1 5.2 6.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.60 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.4 2.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.05 0.05 1 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -5084.00 -4646 -4552 -4566 -4587 -4588 GBP Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 89.20 84.5 85 87 87 89 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Currency 1.31 1.3 1.28 1.27 1.26 1.05 [+]
Stock Market 6838.10 6760 6690 6620 6560 5460 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 0.56 0.57 0.57 0.58 0.58 0.67 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.20 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 1.2 percent [+]
GDP 2848.76 2750 2750 2900 2900 3250 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 466944.00 468881 471275 473680 476094 511238 GBP Million [+]
Gross National Product 459327.00 466000 469000 472000 474000 514000 GBP Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 78159.00 77595 77868 78136 78398 81944 GBP Million [+]
GDP per capita 40933.46 41366 41488 41632 41776 43674 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 38657.79 38555 38532 38486 38440 39900 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 3179.00 3227 3211 3252 3240 3350 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Construction 25417.00 25376 25316 25262 25240 27300 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 41461.00 41657 41950 41999 41950 43700 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Mining 7530.00 7525 7504 7533 7542 8990 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 18979.00 18901 18842 18791 18749 20400 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Services 330909.00 332227 333601 335096 336697 370000 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Transport 17844.00 18004 18064 18093 18207 19600 GBP Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.90 5.1 5 5.1 5.2 6.7 percent [+]
Employed Persons 30543.00 30682 30774 30854 30924 31200 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 763.60 759 750 742 735 565 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 8533.00 8540 8560 8560 8560 8960 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 23217.00 23306 23368 23422 23468 23900 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 74.50 74.8 74.98 75.15 75.29 76.06 percent [+]
Claimant Count Change -8.60 -3 -2 -2 -2 6 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 78.40 78.48 78.52 78.54 78.55 82 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.40 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 13.60 13.65 13.69 13.71 13.73 9.66 percent [+]
Productivity 101.50 101 101 101 101 105 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 101.20 101 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 741.00 729 724 718 715 705 Thousand [+]
Wages 501.00 506 508 508 508 541 GBP/Week [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 585.00 585 587 587 587 636 GBP/Week [+]
Wage Growth 2.40 2 2.2 2.1 2.3 3.4 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 7.20 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 9 GBP/Hour [+]
Population 64.88 65.73 66.01 66.21 66.4 69.71 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 62.30 62.3 62.3 62.3 62.3 62.3 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1190.00 1180 1177 1176 1176 1400 GBP/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 2140.00 2130 2124 2119 2116 2280 GBP/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 1320.00 1360 1360 1360 1360 1360 GBP/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 884.00 901 900 900 900 900 GBP/Month [+]
Average Weekly Hours 32.00 32.07 32.07 32.07 32.06 32.06 Hours [+]
Employment Change 0.10 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.1 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Inflation Rate 0.60 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.4 2.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.60 102 104 105 105 121 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 100.57 102 103 104 104 116 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 101.20 103 105 105 105 122 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.30 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 103.21 106 107 108 108 122 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 0.30 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 1.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 92.60 90 91 93 93 102 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 92.50 91 92 92 92 103 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -2.60 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 1.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices 107.20 107 108 109 109 119 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 102.60 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.05 0.05 1 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.39 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 4.57 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 78369.00 78467 79714 80987 82286 103508 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1576279.00 1576151 1615963 1657163 1699785 2467245 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1582684.00 1593518 1610627 1627887 1645300 1906870 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2519868.00 2467932 2483589 2499476 2515586 2730000 GBP Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 149048.33 149405 152859 155874 158783 196664 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 3467273.00 3410000 3410000 3410000 3410000 3780000 GBP Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 405132.00 412000 414000 414000 414000 458000 GBP Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2192746.00 2226056 2170000 2170000 2170000 2210000 GBP Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 1.25 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 220.15 222 221 221 221 221 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Balance of Trade -5084.00 -4646 -4552 -4566 -4587 -4588 GBP Million [+]
Exports 43844.00 43943 44100 44295 44491 47230 GBP Million [+]
Imports 48928.00 48920 48912 48912 48911 48911 GBP Million [+]
Current Account -32593.00 -33170 -33902 -34250 -34885 -44778 GBP Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -5.20 -4.7 -4.7 -4.5 -4.5 -1.5 percent [+]
External Debt -127794.00 -166265 -157562 -202966 -203772 -212109 GBP Million [+]
Terms of Trade 100.10 103 104 104 104 113 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 34134.00 16584 32495 31807 20719 24984 GBP Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 38349.00 15330 18083 16013 9557 13093 GBP Million [+]
Gold Reserves 310.29 310 310 310 310 310 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 978.00 907 908 907 907 907 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 5.61 4.99 4.99 4.97 4.96 4.91 [+]
Weapons Sales 1214.00 1421 1338 1255 1222 1261 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 89.20 84.5 85 87 87 89 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.40 -4.1 -4.1 -3.8 -3.8 -0.8 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -2098.00 -7790 -6720 -6720 -6720 -2040 GBP Million [+]
Government Spending 91352.00 91820 92080 92340 92546 95598 GBP Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 43.20 42.94 42.7 42.7 42.7 44.27 percent [+]
Government Debt 1472.00 -6896 -5959 -5284 -5131 -4982 GBP Million [+]
Military Expenditure 59729.60 59662 60172 60682 60959 63316 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 3210.00 3110 3020 3020 3020 2210 persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Business Confidence -47.00 -11 -29 -18 -7 1 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 48.20 49.2 49.4 50 50 53.1 [+]
Services PMI 47.40 48 49 50 50 54.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 1.60 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.10 -0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 0.90 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.6 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 81.10 79.06 80.99 81.04 80.89 80.24 percent [+]
New Orders 12413.00 12449 12438 12459 12434 12447 GBP Million [+]
Factory Orders -5.00 -8 -6 1 1 -2 Net Balance [+]
Changes in Inventories 2632.00 1214 1328 712 1057 252 GBP Million [+]
Bankruptcies 3617.00 3570 3637 3609 3608 2840 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 101712.00 103000 105000 105000 105000 113607 GBP Million [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -69.50 -5.36 5.21 7.5 7.5 2.14 [+]
Car Production 126566.00 143673 138397 137086 139006 138080 Units [+]
Car Registrations 178523.00 222308 214425 222173 223568 223258 Cars [+]
Small Business Sentiment -43.00 1 4 4 4 2 [+]
Steel Production 661.00 696 691 692 692 692 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 1.10 0.58 1.25 1.4 1.4 0.89 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.57 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 10.00 10 10 10 10 6 [+]
Composite Pmi 47.50 49.27 49.27 49.27 49.27 49.27 [+]
Corruption Index 81.00 81 81 81 81 85 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 10.00 10 10 10 10 6 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 6.00 6 6 6 6 2 [+]
Electricity Production 25681.00 28051 28950 27713 27261 27865 Gigawatt-hour [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -12.00 -2 -1 -1 -1 2 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 1.40 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.65 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 5.90 3.8 4.1 3.5 3.3 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 305950.00 307778 309643 311303 312676 321965 GBP Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 314110.00 319339 326294 330107 339278 424475 GBP Million [+]
Personal Savings 5.90 5.59 5.45 5.59 5.53 5.56 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 1.25 1.2 1.17 1.18 1.17 1.18 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 87.30 88.23 88.46 88.67 88.87 90.74 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 128.41 125 125 125 125 119 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 1837.00 1570 1580 1580 1580 1630 GBP Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.47 1.6 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.92 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Housing Starts 39910.00 39377 34786 37320 40453 37755 [+]
Construction Output -2.20 -2.3 -1.3 -1 -0.7 1.4 percent [+]
Housing Index 694.80 680 650 620 600 694 Index Points [+]
Mortgage Approvals 64.77 64.52 64.57 64.51 64.56 64.53 Thousand [+]
Home Ownership Rate 64.80 65 64.72 64.72 64.71 65 percent [+]
Construction Orders -1.20 2.48 1.95 3.35 1.75 1.91 percent [+]
Construction Pmi 45.90 54.6 44.88 55.3 55.3 52.41 [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 15 15 17 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 21 21 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 25.80 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.80 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy. 8/28/2016