United Kingdom | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.51 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.10 5.1 5.1 5 5.1 6.3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.30 0.4 0.6 0.5 1 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -3830.00 -4061 -4102 -4091 -4090 -4090 GBP Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 89.20 86 84.5 85 87 89 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Currency 1.47 1.41 1.4 1.38 1.37 2.02 [+]
Stock Market 6265.90 6280 6090 5890 5760 8010 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.42 1.43 1.47 1.54 1.61 2.1 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.51 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.00 2 2 1.8 2.5 1.9 percent [+]
GDP 2988.89 3113 3115 3117 3119 3299 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 453065.00 456322 458845 461350 463839 501981 GBP Million [+]
Gross National Product 456188.00 472135 475289 478422 481546 528184 GBP Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 76948.00 78213 77562 77871 78172 82523 GBP Million [+]
GDP per capita 40967.70 41377 41860 42342 42457 42265 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 37613.54 38170 38610 39049 39134 38564 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 2943.00 2964 2975 2961 2984 3047 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Construction 24299.00 24265 24233 24232 24222 27301 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 38443.00 38448 38397 38412 38427 40710 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Mining 7583.00 7655 7659 7618 7632 8992 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 18776.00 18720 18662 18628 18608 20390 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Services 323700.00 326168 328542 330520 332434 369875 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Transport 17622.00 17607 17579 17568 17559 19628 GBP Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.10 5.1 5.1 5 5.1 6.3 percent [+]
Employed Persons 30395.00 30510 30580 30641 30693 31208 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 737.80 746 745 748 751 565 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 8462.00 8482 8542 8562 8562 8962 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 23116.00 23261 23369 23453 23525 23920 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 74.20 74.41 74.54 74.66 74.76 75.3 percent [+]
Claimant Count Change -2.40 -7 -3 -2 -2 6 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 78.30 78.39 78.43 78.46 78.47 82 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.50 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 13.20 13.1 12.57 12.38 12.24 9.66 percent [+]
Productivity 102.50 103 103 103 103 105 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 101.60 102 102 103 103 108 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 745.00 732 750 752 750 749 Thousand [+]
Wages 499.00 499 502 504 506 538 GBP/Week [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 579.00 579 580 580 580 636 GBP/Week [+]
Wage Growth 2.10 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.1 3.04 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 6.70 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 9 GBP/Hour [+]
Population 64.88 65.13 65.28 65.42 65.56 69.71 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 62.30 62.3 62.3 62.3 62.3 62.3 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1300.00 1282 1270 1261 1254 1400 GBP/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 2170.00 2157 2147 2139 2132 2279 GBP/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 1270.00 1290 1290 1290 1290 1290 GBP/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 860.00 866 866 866 866 866 GBP/Month [+]
Average Weekly Hours 32.20 32.14 32.16 32.16 32.15 32.15 Hours [+]
Employment Change -1.00 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.1 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Inflation Rate 0.30 0.4 0.6 0.5 1 2.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.20 101 102 104 105 121 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 100.23 101 102 103 104 116 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 100.90 102 103 105 105 122 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.20 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 104.36 105 106 107 108 122 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change -0.70 -0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 1.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 90.00 89 90 91 93 102 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 89.90 90 91 92 92 103 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -2.50 -1.3 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 1.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices 106.30 107 107 108 109 119 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 99.00 98.27 98.43 98.44 98.43 98.43 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.59 0.8 0.78 0.99 0.99 4.57 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 76649.00 76473 77624 78798 79996 101025 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1512749.00 1542045 1576819 1612736 1649819 2364866 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1555444.00 1618145 1633750 1649443 1665227 1914957 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2442228.00 2446725 2458707 2470866 2483197 2729518 GBP Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 144976.46 145964 149457 152400 155249 194931 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 3393458.00 3394818 3407656 3410784 3410784 3778008 GBP Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 405132.00 409465 411963 413746 413746 457643 GBP Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2166062.00 2166628 2174914 2168355 2168355 2207522 GBP Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0.25 0.25 1.25 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Balance of Trade -3830.00 -4061 -4102 -4091 -4090 -4090 GBP Million [+]
Exports 42606.00 42816 42992 43181 43369 46195 GBP Million [+]
Imports 46436.00 46454 46453 46453 46453 46453 GBP Million [+]
Current Account -32662.00 -22133 -22619 -22802 -22984 -26742 GBP Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -5.20 -4.7 -4.7 -4.7 -4.4 -1.5 percent [+]
External Debt -65938.00 -140328 -121726 -105883 -142040 -183129 GBP Million [+]
Terms of Trade 100.10 102 103 104 104 113 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 21997.00 21309 23534 22281 22856 22360 GBP Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 467.00 967 12506 7223 10390 10860 GBP Million [+]
Gold Reserves 310.29 310 310 310 310 310 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 978.00 758 868 901 901 901 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 5.61 4.98 4.99 4.99 4.97 4.91 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 89.20 86 84.5 85 87 89 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.40 -3.3 -3.3 -3.3 -2.9 -0.8 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 16598.00 -12567 -7789 -6716 -6716 -2036 GBP Million [+]
Government Spending 91392.00 91719 92066 92393 92717 96996 GBP Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 43.20 43.19 42.94 42.7 42.7 44.27 percent [+]
Government Debt -6582.00 -3187 -3774 -4153 -4294 -5356 GBP Million [+]
Asylum Applications 3260.00 3327 3111 3018 3018 2215 persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Business Confidence -5.00 -9 -3 2 2 1 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 49.20 51 51.5 50.9 52 53.1 [+]
Services PMI 52.30 53.7 53.8 55.4 55.5 54.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production -0.20 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.30 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -1.90 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.6 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 79.00 80.07 79.05 79.1 79.27 79.91 percent [+]
New Orders 12546.00 12532 12714 12544 12609 12579 GBP Million [+]
Factory Orders -8.00 -11 -8 -6 1 -2 Net Balance [+]
Changes in Inventories 3497.00 361 940 1445 1873 335 GBP Million [+]
Bankruptcies 3694.00 3655 3608 3683 3664 2845 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 100023.00 102833 103119 104770 104770 103524 GBP Million [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -12.00 -10.63 -5.36 5.21 7.5 2.14 [+]
Car Production 159074.00 139787 134352 134579 135923 134747 Units [+]
Car Registrations 189505.00 199328 226012 203318 218236 217505 Cars [+]
Small Business Sentiment 5.00 -3 1 4 4 2 [+]
Steel Production 700.00 731 722 725 724 724 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 4.70 1.88 0.58 1.25 1.4 0.89 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.57 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 10.00 10 10 10 10 6 [+]
Corruption Index 81.00 81 81 81 81 85 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 10.00 10 10 10 10 6 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 6.00 6 6 6 6 2 [+]
Electricity Production 29952.00 26296 27499 29084 28255 28029 Gigawatt-hour [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -1.00 -3 2 4 6 2 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 1.30 0.21 0.26 0.41 0.2 0.65 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.30 3.53 3.5 3.39 3.29 2.78 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 294784.00 296172 297614 298897 300013 308540 GBP Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 293322.00 299761 304452 307881 309101 340863 GBP Million [+]
Personal Savings 3.80 3.93 3.98 3.91 3.94 3.92 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 86.40 85.89 85.72 85.55 85.38 83.48 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 128.41 125 125 125 125 119 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 1883.00 1571 1574 1576 1576 1634 GBP Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.58 1.35 1.33 1.3 1.3 1.92 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Housing Starts 31000.00 39875 38625 36914 37545 37224 [+]
Construction Output -4.50 -0.55 -1.81 -1.63 -1.46 -1.38 percent [+]
Housing Index 687.17 694 702 707 712 736 Index Points [+]
Mortgage Approvals 71.40 70.42 70.59 70.44 70.56 70.5 Thousand [+]
Home Ownership Rate 64.80 65 65 65.46 65.77 65 percent [+]
Construction Orders 1.40 1.16 1.3 1.01 2.89 1.19 percent [+]
Construction Pmi 52.00 55.68 54.6 51.22 55.3 52.41 [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 17 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45 45 45 45 46.21 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20.02 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 25.80 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.80 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 14.36 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.00 12 11.97 11.97 11.96 12.66 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy. 5/27/2016