United Kingdom | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.90 5.1 5 5.1 5.2 6.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.60 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.4 2.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 1 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -4502.00 -1700 -2300 -1600 -5200 -1000 GBP Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 89.20 87.5 87.5 87 87 79 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Currency 1.30 1.3 1.28 1.27 1.26 1.05 [+]
Stock Market 6899.30 6760 6690 6620 6560 5460 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 0.75 0.57 0.52 0.58 0.69 1.42 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.10 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.8 percent [+]
GDP 2848.76 2950 2950 3050 3050 3250 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 466790.00 468880 471270 473670 476090 511230 GBP Million [+]
Gross National Product 473198.00 464750 467670 470600 473520 514390 GBP Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 78108.00 77590 77860 78130 78390 81940 GBP Million [+]
GDP per capita 40933.46 41360 41480 41630 41770 43870 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 38657.79 38670 38680 38690 38700 40100 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 3185.00 3220 3210 3250 3240 3350 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Construction 25939.00 25570 25610 25760 25840 27300 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 41356.00 41650 41940 41990 42050 44700 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Mining 7660.00 7540 7560 7570 7580 7990 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 19006.00 19400 19800 20190 20450 23400 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Services 331121.00 332200 333600 335000 336600 374500 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Transport 17823.00 18000 18060 18120 18200 19900 GBP Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.90 5.1 5 5.1 5.2 6.7 percent [+]
Employed Persons 30577.00 30660 30750 30830 30890 31800 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 771.00 772 777 782 787 815 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 8514.00 8540 8560 8580 8590 8960 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 23253.00 23320 23390 23450 23500 23900 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 74.50 74.63 74.76 74.88 74.97 75.49 percent [+]
Claimant Count Change 2.40 -3 -2 -4 2 6 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 78.50 78.55 78.61 78.65 78.67 82 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.40 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 2 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 13.50 13.7 13.4 13.6 13.7 14.6 percent [+]
Productivity 101.50 102 102 102 102 106 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 101.20 102 102 103 104 110 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 752.00 764 767 775 778 792 Thousand [+]
Wages 505.00 506 508 508 512 541 GBP/Week [+]
Wage Growth 2.30 2 2.2 2.1 2.2 3.4 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 588.00 585 587 587 592 636 GBP/Week [+]
Minimum Wages 7.20 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 9 GBP/Hour [+]
Population 64.88 65.32 65.57 65.72 65.85 67.36 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 62.30 62.3 62.3 62.3 62.3 62.3 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1190.00 1200 1200 1250 1250 1550 GBP/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 2140.00 2180 2180 2260 2260 2490 GBP/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 1320.00 1360 1360 1400 1400 1720 GBP/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 884.00 900 900 940 940 1370 GBP/Month [+]
Average Weekly Hours 32.10 32.1 32.1 32.2 32.2 32.3 Hours [+]
Employment Change 0.50 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.1 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Inflation Rate 0.60 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.4 2.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.90 102 104 105 106 121 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 100.90 102 104 106 108 122 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 101.62 103 105 107 109 124 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.30 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 2.4 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 103.21 105 106 107 108 122 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 0.80 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 2.6 percent [+]
Export Prices 95.80 96 98 99 100 113 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 95.40 95 96 98 97 107 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -2.20 -1.7 -0.4 0.2 0.5 1.8 percent [+]
Producer Prices 107.30 108 109 109 111 121 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 103.48 104 106 107 109 123 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 1 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.38 0.34 0.32 0.38 0.52 3.57 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 78887.00 81100 83400 85700 87200 119400 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1593775.00 1615100 1655300 1696800 1739800 2510800 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1596953.00 1620700 1668900 1707400 1746000 2529100 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2558762.00 2586500 2613500 2650900 2698500 3110000 GBP Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 147319.66 148163 151452 154349 157129 193256 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 3496688.00 3540000 3590000 3640000 3680000 4110000 GBP Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 405132.00 408000 411000 415000 418000 458000 GBP Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2226072.00 2240000 2260000 2280000 2300000 2620000 GBP Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 1.25 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 229.64 228 227 226 226 218 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Balance of Trade -4502.00 -1700 -2300 -1600 -5200 -1000 GBP Million [+]
Exports 43777.00 42600 42400 44300 43100 43700 GBP Million [+]
Imports 48279.00 44300 44700 45900 48300 44700 GBP Million [+]
Current Account -28684.00 -20650 -30810 -29540 -17770 -22840 GBP Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -5.20 -4.7 -4.7 -4.5 -4.5 -1.5 percent [+]
External Debt 6055168.00 6115100 6164500 6226500 6254900 6811100 GBP Million [+]
Terms of Trade 100.40 101 102 101 103 106 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 14279.00 16500 45400 36800 11700 36900 GBP Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 12203.00 -800 14000 36000 -9000 15900 GBP Million [+]
Gold Reserves 310.29 310 310 310 310 310 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 978.00 970 965 959 954 880 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 5.61 5.61 5.61 5.61 5.61 5.61 [+]
Tourism Revenues 2530.00 2340 1950 1470 2150 2490 GBP Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 3800.00 3150 2650 2780 3410 2990 Thousand [+]
Weapons Sales 1214.00 1421 1338 1255 1222 1261 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 89.20 87.5 87.5 87 87 79 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.40 -4.1 -4.1 -3.8 -3.8 -0.8 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 727.00 15450 8970 16620 14560 9980 GBP Million [+]
Government Spending 91664.00 91810 92070 92330 92540 95590 GBP Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 43.20 43.4 43.4 42.7 42.7 44.3 percent [+]
Government Debt -10051.00 -9230 -6870 -6250 -7050 -5460 GBP Million [+]
Military Expenditure 59729.60 59662 60172 60682 60959 63316 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 3055.00 3910 3120 3020 3040 2210 persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Business Confidence -47.00 -29 -11 -7 -5 1 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 53.30 52.8 52.6 52.2 51.8 53.1 [+]
Services PMI 52.90 52.9 54.2 55.2 54.8 54.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 2.10 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.10 -0.2 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 0.80 1.5 1.7 2 1.8 2.2 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 81.10 79.06 80.99 81.04 80.89 80.24 percent [+]
New Orders 13341.00 13540 13850 14160 14420 15980 GBP Million [+]
Factory Orders -5.00 -4 -6 -2 -4 -2 Net Balance [+]
Changes in Inventories 2956.00 1274 1165 662 1131 252 GBP Million [+]
Bankruptcies 3617.00 3560 3630 3640 3620 2800 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 101712.00 103000 100000 102000 105000 113000 GBP Million [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -57.00 -5.4 5.2 7.5 9.6 11.6 [+]
Car Production 109004.00 159000 118000 162000 160000 132000 Units [+]
Car Registrations 81640.00 466000 185000 522000 259000 196000 Cars [+]
Small Business Sentiment -43.00 -43 -15 5 2 2 [+]
Steel Production 582.00 590 620 690 630 850 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 7.20 3.8 3.2 3.6 3.4 2 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.49 5.43 5.43 5.46 5.46 5.57 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 7.00 10 10 9 9 6 [+]
Composite Pmi 53.60 54.2 53.8 53.4 54.1 51.8 [+]
Corruption Index 81.00 81 81 82 82 85 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 10.00 10 10 9 9 6 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 6.00 6 6 5 5 2 [+]
Electricity Production 24626.00 25800 29800 26700 24700 30200 Gigawatt-hour [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -1.00 -2 -1 -3 -2 2 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.20 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 6.20 3.8 4.1 3.5 3.3 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 305664.00 307000 309000 311000 312000 323000 GBP Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 312504.00 319300 326200 330100 339200 424400 GBP Million [+]
Personal Savings 5.10 6.2 6 6.4 6.6 7.9 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 1.25 1.2 1.15 1.08 1.12 1.57 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 87.40 87.31 87.25 87.09 86.52 78 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 125.20 125 125 124 124 115 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 1574.00 1300 1480 1590 1670 2430 GBP Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.44 1.41 1.38 1.47 1.51 1.86 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Housing Starts 39910.00 39370 34780 37320 42450 44750 [+]
Construction Output -1.50 -0.8 -0.2 0.3 0.5 1.4 percent [+]
Housing Index 692.38 680 690 700 720 920 Index Points [+]
Mortgage Approvals 60.06 60.5 64.8 68.3 70.2 97.6 Thousand [+]
Home Ownership Rate 63.50 63.5 63.5 63 63 61.5 percent [+]
Construction Orders -1.20 2.8 1.2 4.5 1.5 1 percent [+]
Construction Pmi 49.20 54.6 53.8 55.3 54.8 52.4 [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 15 15 17 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 21 21 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 25.80 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.80 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy. 9/30/2016