United Kingdom | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.2 0 0.2 0.1 0.51 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.00 5.1 5.1 5.1 4.61 6.3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.30 0.8 1.1 1 0.27 2.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.50 0 0 0 0.5 1.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -3294.00 -3626 -3597 -3598 -3597 -3598 GBP Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 89.20 84.5 85 87 90.11 89 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Currency 1.33 1.34 1.32 1.3 1.28 1.15 [+]
Stock Market 6577.80 6090 6020 5960 6641 4970 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 0.86 1.31 1.32 1.33 0.83 1.54 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.2 0 0.2 0.1 0.51 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.00 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 1.2 percent [+]
GDP 2849.35 2750 2750 2900 2900 3250 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 464212.00 470207 472786 475336 477867 514038 GBP Million [+]
Gross National Product 459327.00 465730 468663 471569 474448 514229 GBP Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 77059.00 78084 78388 78683 78974 82959 GBP Million [+]
GDP per capita 40967.70 41395 41608 41746 41884 44334 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 37613.54 37900 37989 37965 37940 38564 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 2943.00 1.57 -17.84 -0.54 -0.3 3047 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Construction 24299.00 24233 24232 24222 24221 27301 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 38443.00 38397 38412 38427 38432 40710 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Mining 7583.00 7659 7618 7632 7635 8992 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 18776.00 18662 18628 18608 18587 20390 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Services 323700.00 328542 330520 332434 334245 369875 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Transport 17622.00 17775 17806 17867 17932 19628 GBP Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.00 5.1 5.1 5.1 4.61 6.3 percent [+]
Employed Persons 30410.00 30528 30576 30616 30652 31208 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 746.10 767 781 793 804 565 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 8498.00 8542 8562 8562 8539 8962 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 23096.00 23204 23253 23293 23327 23920 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 74.20 74.39 74.47 74.54 74.6 74.91 percent [+]
Claimant Count Change -0.40 -3 -2 -2 7.83 6 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 78.20 78.2 78.21 78.2 78.2 82 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.50 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.12 1 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 13.20 12.79 12.65 12.54 12.44 9.66 percent [+]
Productivity 102.50 103 103 103 103 105 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 101.60 102 103 103 103 108 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 749.00 748 750 748 748 746 Thousand [+]
Wages 503.00 506 508 509 512 541 GBP/Week [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 580.00 582 585 587 589 636 GBP/Week [+]
Wage Growth 2.30 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.7 3.08 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 7.20 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 9 GBP/Hour [+]
Population 64.88 65.73 66.01 66.21 66.4 69.71 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 62.30 62.3 62.3 62.3 62.3 62.3 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1300.00 1270 1261 1254 1250 1400 GBP/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 2170.00 2147 2139 2132 2127 2279 GBP/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 1270.00 1290 1290 1290 1290 1290 GBP/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 860.00 866 866 866 866 866 GBP/Month [+]
Average Weekly Hours 32.10 32.14 32.14 32.14 32.13 32.13 Hours [+]
Employment Change 0.10 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.33 1.1 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Inflation Rate 0.30 0.8 1.1 1 0.27 2.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.03 0.5 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.40 102 104 105 100 121 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 100.42 102 103 104 101 116 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 101.10 103 105 105 103 122 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.20 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.18 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 102.16 106 107 108 102 122 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change -0.70 0.3 0.2 0.4 -0.58 1.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 90.40 90 91 93 90.85 102 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 90.90 91 92 92 91.26 103 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -2.80 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -2.86 1.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices 106.40 107 108 109 107 119 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 99.90 100 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.50 0 0 0 0.5 1.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.56 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.55 4.57 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 77015.00 78596 79797 81024 82276 102706 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1516908.00 1580988 1617020 1654372 1693076 2399069 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1563672.00 1587019 1602946 1618970 1635096 1873220 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2441014.00 2465227 2476991 2488923 2501019 2729518 GBP Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 139957.48 143506 146029 148409 150743 181345 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 3404959.00 3407656 3410784 3410784 3334159 3778008 GBP Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 405132.00 411963 413746 413746 404815 457643 GBP Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2192746.00 2226056 2168355 2168355 2266836 2207522 GBP Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 1.25 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Balance of Trade -3294.00 -3626 -3597 -3598 -3597 -3598 GBP Million [+]
Exports 44945.00 44977 44970 44970 44970 44970 GBP Million [+]
Imports 48239.00 48192 48189 48189 48189 48189 GBP Million [+]
Current Account -32593.00 -33170 -33902 -34250 -34885 -44778 GBP Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -5.20 -4.7 -4.7 -4.5 -5.28 -1.5 percent [+]
External Debt -65938.00 -121726 -105883 -142040 -160229 -183129 GBP Million [+]
Terms of Trade 99.40 103 104 104 99.37 113 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 34134.00 16584 32495 31807 20719 24984 GBP Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 38349.00 15330 18083 16013 9557 13093 GBP Million [+]
Gold Reserves 310.29 310 310 310 310 310 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 978.00 907 908 907 907 907 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 5.61 5.61 5.61 5.61 5.61 5.61 [+]
Weapons Sales 1214.00 1421 1338 1255 1222 1261 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 89.20 84.5 85 87 90.11 89 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.40 -3.3 -3.3 -3.9 -4.37 -0.8 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 3417.00 -7789 -6716 -6716 5510 -2036 GBP Million [+]
Government Spending 91501.00 92118 92400 92707 92998 96535 GBP Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 43.20 42.94 42.7 42.7 42.7 44.27 percent [+]
Government Debt -9141.00 -3901 -4028 -4311 -4550 -4953 GBP Million [+]
Military Expenditure 59729.60 59662 60172 60682 60959 63316 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 3130.00 3111 3018 3018 3241 2215 persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Business Confidence -5.00 -12 -10 -2 -5.32 1 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 52.10 49.2 49.4 50 50 53.1 [+]
Services PMI 53.50 48 49 50 53.22 54.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 1.60 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.46 0.6 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 2.00 -0.2 0.3 0.5 0.07 0.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 0.80 0.5 0.6 0.9 9.51 1.6 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 79.00 79.05 79.1 79.27 79.45 79.91 percent [+]
New Orders 12413.00 12449 12438 12459 12434 12447 GBP Million [+]
Factory Orders -2.00 -8 -6 1 0.96 -2 Net Balance [+]
Changes in Inventories 1222.00 952 1160 704 589 255 GBP Million [+]
Bankruptcies 3694.00 3608 3683 3664 3659 2845 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 101993.00 103119 104770 104770 104509 113346 GBP Million [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -12.50 -5.36 5.21 7.5 -12.26 2.14 [+]
Car Production 149334.00 137695 139145 138365 137420 137254 Units [+]
Car Registrations 203585.00 225110 203950 220431 218918 218657 Cars [+]
Small Business Sentiment 5.00 1 4 4 2.96 2 [+]
Steel Production 697.00 713 712 712 712 712 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 0.30 0.58 1.25 1.4 3.08 0.89 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.42 5.57 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 10.00 10 10 10 11.4 6 [+]
Corruption Index 81.00 81 81 81 81.61 85 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 10.00 10 10 10 8.42 6 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 6.00 6 6 6 7.57 2 [+]
Electricity Production 26615.00 28051 29250 27258 26715 27627 Gigawatt-hour [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -1.00 -2 -1 -1 -1.05 2 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.90 0.26 0.41 0.2 0.37 0.65 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 6.00 4.79 4.55 4.3 4.08 2.95 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 303287.00 306376 307816 308950 310033 316740 GBP Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 293322.00 306848 310483 313610 317568 371960 GBP Million [+]
Personal Savings 3.80 3.98 3.91 3.94 3.92 3.92 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 87.30 87.93 88.06 88.17 88.27 89.21 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 128.41 125 125 125 130 119 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 1503.00 1574 1576 1576 1495 1634 GBP Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.61 1.6 1.57 1.3 1.56 1.92 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Housing Starts 35390.00 33642 30582 33715 32612 31830 [+]
Construction Output -3.70 -2.49 -2.06 -1.7 -1.68 -1.82 percent [+]
Housing Index 690.90 698 702 705 708 723 Index Points [+]
Mortgage Approvals 67.00 66.74 66.76 66.73 66.76 66.75 Thousand [+]
Home Ownership Rate 64.80 65 64.72 64.72 64.71 65 percent [+]
Construction Orders 1.40 1.3 1.01 2.89 1.1 1.19 percent [+]
Construction Pmi 51.20 54.6 50.78 55.3 50.77 52.41 [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 17 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 21 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 25.80 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.80 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy. 7/1/2016