Markets Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Currency 1.32 1.34 1.35 1.35 1.35
Stock Market (points) 10450.27 10289 10091 9897 9897
Government Bond 10Y (%) 5.33 5.23 5.16 5.08 5.08

Overview Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.50 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.40 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.90 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.6
Inflation Rate (%) 3.10 3.7 4 3.7 3.4
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.50 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2
Interest Rate (%) 3.75 4 4.25 4.25 4.25
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -3450.00 -1700 -1500 -1800 -1600
Current Account (GBP Million) -19932.00 -26000 -22000 -21000 -24000
Services PMI (points) 51.70 52.3 52.5 53 52.8
Manufacturing PMI (points) 51.90 52 51.7 51.9 51.8
Business Confidence (points) -36.00 -33 -27 -18 -10
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.50 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3
Consumer Confidence (points) -13.00 -18 -18 -17 -16
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -2.40 -2.4
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 94.30 94.9
Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.30 -3.8

GDP Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.50 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.40 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6
GDP Constant Prices (GBP Million) 744453.00 746092 752357 755620 756364
Gross National Product (GBP Million) 783358.00 769432 792120 795108 795892
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GBP Million) 144517.00 142665 145463 146685 146829
GDP from Utilities (GBP Million) 20318.00 21037 21108 20623 20643
Monthly GDP YoY (%) 1.60 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7
Monthly GDP MoM (%) 0.40 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2
GDP from Transport (GBP Million) 24634.00 24959 25047 25004 25028
GDP from Mining (GBP Million) 4558.00 4712 4538 4626 4631
GDP from Agriculture (GBP Million) 4737.00 4940 4776 4808 4813
GDP from Services (GBP Million) 547104.00 547321 552484 555311 555858
GDP from Manufacturing (GBP Million) 57126.00 57253 57777 57983 58040
GDP from Public Administration (GBP Million) 34598.00 34887 34983 35117 35152
GDP from Construction (GBP Million) 37192.00 37254 37478 37750 37787
GDP (USD Billion) 4002.59 4031
GDP per Capita (USD) 48422.07 48761
GDP per Capita PPP (USD) 53993.12 54371
Full Year GDP Growth (%) 1.40 0.7

Labour Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.90 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.6
Employed Persons (Thousand) 34478.00 34620 34700 34780 34840
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 1663.70 1710 1716 1718 1722
Claimant Count Change (Thousand) 27.80 3 -2 2 15
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 79.10 78.7 78.8 78.9 79.1
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 14.40 14.7 14.9 15 15.1
Labour Costs (points) 114.50 116 118 118 117
Productivity (points) 99.30 100 100 100 100
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 702.00 650 670 700 715
Wages (GBP/Week) 756.00 762 779 776 775
Wages in Manufacturing (GBP/Week) 818.00 850 860 870 880
Wage Growth (%) 3.90 3.3 3 2.7 2.5
Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (%) 3.50 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) -26.10 35 40 35 33
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 32.00 32.2 32.1 32 31.9
Employment Change (Thousand) 67.00 30 35 45 30
Minimum Wages (GBP/Hour) 12.71 12.71
Population (Million) 69.49 69.65

Prices Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Inflation Rate (%) 3.10 3.7 4 3.7 3.4
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.50 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 143.60 145 147 148 148
Core Inflation Rate (%) 2.60 3 3.4 3.6 3.5
Core Consumer Prices (points) 139.70 141 142 144 145
GDP Deflator (points) 110.40 113 114 114 114
Producer Prices Change (%) 3.70 4.7 4.5 4 3.6
Food Inflation (%) 1.30 2.5 3.6 2.9 2.6
PPI Input YoY (%) 6.10 6.9 7.4 6.3 5.6
Core Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.30 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2
Core Producer Prices MoM (%) 0.30 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1
PPI Input (%) 0.30 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2
Core Producer Prices YoY (%) 2.70 2.1 2 1.9 2
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%) 0.70 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3
Core Producer Prices (points) 146.30 145 145 148 149
CPI Transportation (points) 148.30 149 149 149 150
Producer Prices (points) 149.70 151 152 154 155
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 153.90 154 157 155 159

Money Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Interest Rate (%) 3.75 4 4.25 4.25 4.25
Money Supply M2 (GBP Million) 3221320.00 3260000 3280000 3295000 3305000
Loans to Private Sector (GBP Million) 2986055.00 2914931 2974543 3030846 3033832
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 3.60 3.85 4.1 4.1 4.1
Lending Rate (%) 3.90 4.15 4.4 4.4 4.4
Private Debt to GDP (%) 69.70 71

Trade Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -3450.00 -1700 -1500 -1800 -1600
Current Account (GBP Million) -19932.00 -26000 -22000 -21000 -24000
Exports (GBP Million) 81916.00 84200 84900 85100 85600
Imports (GBP Million) 85366.00 85900 86400 86900 87200
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 512.00 620 640 650 630
Goods Trade Balance Non-EU (GBP Million) -9663.00 -8500 -8200 -8200 -8000
Goods Trade Balance (GBP Million) -20970.00 -18200 -17500 -17500 -17000
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -2.40 -2.4

Government Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Government Budget Value (GBP Million) -18268.00 -15800 -11400 -10500 -13500
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 94.30 94.9
Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.30 -3.8
Government Spending to GDP (% of GDP) 44.60 44.9

Business Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Services PMI (points) 51.70 52.3 52.5 53 52.8
Manufacturing PMI (points) 51.90 52 51.7 51.9 51.8
Business Confidence (points) -36.00 -33 -27 -18 -10
Industrial Production (%) 0.60 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.4
Industrial Production Mom (%) 0.20 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2
Manufacturing Production (%) 2.60 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.8
Factory Orders (Net Balance) -9.00 -6 10 5 -17
Bankruptcies (Companies) 1946.00 2050 2000 1990 1980
Corporate Profits (GBP Million) 170760.00 173134 174522 175921 177320
Car Production (Units) 39328.00 54116 70941 69155 40036
Car Registrations (Units) 94236.00 155024 409174 222332 98005
New Passenger Car Registrations YoY (%) 13.70 6 7.5 4.3 4
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (%) 0.50 1.4 2 1.7 2
Private Investment (%) 1.80 0.7 0.9 1 0.9
Leading Economic Index (%) 0.40 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5
Composite PMI (points) 51.70 52.5 53 53.2 53

Consumer Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.50 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3
Consumer Confidence (points) -13.00 -18 -18 -17 -16
Retail Sales YoY (%) 2.40 1.9 1.8 1.7 2
Consumer Spending (GBP Million) 436418.00 438010 441892 442964 443401
Disposable Personal Income (GBP Million) 457927.00 462827 460366 464796 465254
Personal Savings (%) 8.80 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.4
Net Lending to Individuals MoM (GBP Million) 6874.00 6600 7500 8000 6700
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 2.30 2.55 2.66 2.78 2.78
Cbi Distributive Trades (Net Balance) -55.00 -40 -5 2 5
Consumer Credit (GBP Million) 2464.00 1660 1959 1951 2503

Housing Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Housing Starts (units) 33960.00 37416 34368 34639 34979
Construction Output (%) -2.50 0.5 1.2 2 3
Housing Index (points) 514.70 522 528 529 535
Mortgage Approvals (Thousand) 54.92 59.1 64 65 66
RICS House Price Balance (%) -28.00 -15 -5 3 5
House Price Index YoY (%) -0.40 1.5 2.2 2.5 4
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (%) -0.20 -0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (%) 0.80 2.2 2 2.5 3
Construction Orders (%) -18.10 -12 10 5 15
Construction PMI (points) 44.30 45.8 46 48 49
Mortgage Rate (%) 6.58 6.83 7.08 7.08 7.08
Nationwide Housing Prices (points) 547.10 553 564 567 564
Home Loans (GBP Million) 4410.00 5100 5500 5800 5300