Markets Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Currency 1.36 1.37 1.38 1.39 1.39
Stock Market (points) 10233.07 10132 9886 9717 9551
Government Bond 10Y (%) 4.92 4.88 4.78 4.72 4.65

Overview Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.10 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.00 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.6
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.90 5.2 5.1 5.1 5
Inflation Rate (%) 3.30 3.6 3.8 3.4 3.2
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.70 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2
Interest Rate (%) 3.75 3.75 4 4.25 4.25
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -720.00 -3600 -3500 -3100 -2700
Current Account (GBP Million) -18392.00 -17000 -15000 -16000 -16000
Services PMI (points) 52.70 51.9 51 51.3 52.5
Manufacturing PMI (points) 53.70 51.3 50.5 50.7 51.5
Business Confidence (points) -65.00 -23 -20 -18 -18
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.70 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4
Consumer Confidence (points) -25.00 -29 -32 -30 -27
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -2.40 -2.4
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 94.30 94.9
Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.30 -3.6

GDP Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.10 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.00 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.6
GDP Constant Prices (GBP Million) 706067.00 716399 716266 715952 717364
Gross National Product (GBP Million) 766587.00 761728 775393 777319 778852
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GBP Million) 138849.00 139231 140711 140793 141071
GDP from Utilities (GBP Million) 12132.00 11909 11905 12302 12326
Monthly GDP YoY (%) 1.00 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5
Monthly GDP MoM (%) 0.50 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
GDP from Construction (GBP Million) 37222.00 38372 38532 37743 37818
GDP from Public Administration (GBP Million) 33328.00 33494 33647 33795 33861
GDP from Mining (GBP Million) 6812.00 6976 6861 6907 6921
GDP from Transport (GBP Million) 23267.00 23004 23353 23593 23639
GDP from Agriculture (GBP Million) 4575.00 4647 4644 4639 4648
GDP from Services (GBP Million) 514223.00 521136 521802 521422 522451
GDP from Manufacturing (GBP Million) 56361.00 57498 56733 57150 57263
GDP (USD Billion) 3643.83 3669
GDP per Capita (USD) 47265.00 47596
GDP per Capita PPP (USD) 52517.98 52886
Full Year GDP Growth (%) 1.40 0.7

Labour Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.90 5.2 5.1 5.1 5
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 1667.40 1710 1700 1740 1740
Employed Persons (Thousand) 34328.00 34550 34400 34450 34450
Claimant Count Change (Thousand) 26.80 -5 20 3 -2
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 79.00 78.8 78.9 78.7 78.7
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 14.30 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.4
Labour Costs (points) 112.70 114 116 116 116
Productivity (points) 99.00 99.5 99.5 100 100
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 711.00 680 700 710 710
Wages (GBP/Week) 745.00 749 756 755 764
Wages in Manufacturing (GBP/Week) 814.00 811 813 815 815
Wage Growth (%) 3.80 3.3 3 2.7 2.5
Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (%) 3.60 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.5
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) -11.00 20 30 35 40
Employment Change (Thousand) 25.00 15 25 30 35
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 31.70 31.9 32 32.2 32.2
Minimum Wages (GBP/Hour) 12.71 12.71
Population (Million) 69.49 69.6

Prices Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Inflation Rate (%) 3.30 3.6 3.8 3.4 3.2
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.70 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 141.00 144 145 145 146
Core Inflation Rate (%) 3.10 3.5 3.3 3 2.5
Core Consumer Prices (points) 137.20 140 141 141 141
GDP Deflator (points) 108.90 111 112 113 112
Producer Prices Change (%) 2.60 3.7 4.4 4.1 3.9
Food Inflation (%) 3.70 4.4 4.9 5 4.7
PPI Input YoY (%) 5.40 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.5
PPI Input (%) 4.40 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2
Core Producer Prices YoY (%) 2.00 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.1
Core Producer Prices MoM (%) 0.20 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1
Core Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.40 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%) 0.90 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Producer Prices (points) 145.00 148 151 150 151
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 150.50 153 152 153 155
CPI Transportation (points) 140.70 141 141 142 142
Core Producer Prices (points) 141.80 145 146 145 145

Money Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Interest Rate (%) 3.75 3.75 4 4.25 4.25
Money Supply M2 (GBP Million) 3199976.00 3150000 3160000 3130000 3130000
Loans to Private Sector (GBP Million) 2874192.00 2826603 2870736 2914431 2920179
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 3.50 3.5 3.75 4 4
Lending Rate (%) 4.00 4 4.25 4.5 4.5
Private Debt to GDP (%) 75.70 71

Trade Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -720.00 -3600 -3500 -3100 -2700
Current Account (GBP Million) -18392.00 -17000 -15000 -16000 -16000
Exports (GBP Million) 80202.00 78200 79500 81200 83500
Imports (GBP Million) 80922.00 81800 83000 84300 86200
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 654.00 520 570 640 680
Goods Trade Balance Non-EU (GBP Million) -7097.00 -9300 -8800 -8500 -8200
Goods Trade Balance (GBP Million) -18791.00 -19800 -18500 -18200 -17500
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -2.40 -2.4

Government Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Government Budget Value (GBP Million) -12600.00 -13500 -19500 -14900 -14700
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 94.30 94.9
Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.30 -3.6
Government Spending to GDP (% of GDP) 44.00 44.9

Business Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Services PMI (points) 52.70 51.9 51 51.3 52.5
Manufacturing PMI (points) 53.70 51.3 50.5 50.7 51.5
Business Confidence (points) -65.00 -23 -20 -18 -18
Industrial Production Mom (%) 0.50 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2
Industrial Production (%) -0.40 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.2
Manufacturing Production (%) -0.50 0 0.3 0.5 1
Factory Orders (Net Balance) -38.00 -26 -22 -20 -17
Bankruptcies (Companies) 2022.00 2080 2100 2050 2050
Corporate Profits (GBP Million) 165030.00 145000 146000 148000 148000
Car Registrations (Units) 149247.00 196673 316646 149174 390143
Car Production (Units) 69755.00 69006 51243 53268 70453
New Passenger Car Registrations YoY (%) 24.00 2.8 1.2 2 2.5
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (%) 3.10 1.8 1.4 2 1.7
Leading Economic Index (%) 0.50 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Private Investment (%) -2.50 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7
Composite PMI (points) 52.60 52.1 51.2 51.5 52.3

Consumer Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.70 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4
Consumer Confidence (points) -25.00 -29 -32 -30 -27
Retail Sales YoY (%) 1.70 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5
Consumer Spending (GBP Million) 416308.00 422392 422291 422136 422969
Disposable Personal Income (GBP Million) 442628.00 448557 443331 448825 449710
Personal Savings (%) 9.90 9.8 9.9 9.5 9.4
Net Lending to Individuals MoM (GBP Million) 8000.00 5500 4800 4400 5800
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 2.13 2.51 2.15 1.79 1.79
Cbi Distributive Trades (Net Balance) -68.00 -20 -12 -5 2
Consumer Credit (GBP Million) 1895.00 1522 1525 1695 1925

Housing Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Housing Starts (units) 37300.00 30050 30684 38419 38792
Construction Output (%) -1.00 0.5 1.2 3 4
Housing Index (points) 516.10 520 524 525 530
Mortgage Approvals (Thousand) 63.53 64.4 67 64.8 72
RICS House Price Balance (%) -23.00 -12 -5 -2 2
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (%) 3.00 2.2 2.5 2.7 3
House Price Index YoY (%) 0.40 1.5 2 2.2 2.5
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (%) 0.40 0.2 0.1 -0.4 0.5
Construction Orders (%) 28.60 1.8 2.5 2 2
Construction PMI (points) 39.70 45 42 44 46
Mortgage Rate (%) 6.60 6.6 6.85 7.1 7.1
Home Loans (GBP Million) 6152.00 5100 4900 4700 5400
Nationwide Housing Prices (points) 554.80 554 556 555 570