United Kingdom | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 -0.2 0 0.2 0.1 0.51 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.90 5.1 5 5.1 5.2 6.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.50 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.4 2.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.50 0.25 0.25 0.05 0.05 1 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -2263.00 -2419 -2355 -2398 -2404 -2404 GBP Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 89.20 84.5 85 87 87 89 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Currency 1.31 1.34 1.32 1.3 1.3 1.15 [+]
Stock Market 6724.00 6090 6020 5960 5960 4970 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 0.82 1.31 1.32 1.33 1.61 1.54 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 -0.2 0 0.2 0.1 0.51 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.00 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 1.2 percent [+]
GDP 2848.76 2750 2750 2900 2900 3250 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 464212.00 470000 473000 475000 478000 514000 GBP Million [+]
Gross National Product 459327.00 466000 469000 472000 474000 514000 GBP Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 77059.00 78100 78400 78700 79000 83000 GBP Million [+]
GDP per capita 40933.46 41366 41488 41632 41776 43674 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 38657.79 38555 38532 38486 38440 39900 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 2943.00 2970 2960 2980 2980 3050 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Construction 24299.00 24200 24200 24200 24200 27300 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 38443.00 38400 38400 38400 38400 40700 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Mining 7583.00 7659 7618 7632 7635 8990 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 18776.00 18662 18628 18608 18587 20400 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Services 323700.00 329000 331000 332000 334000 370000 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Transport 17622.00 17800 17800 17900 17900 19600 GBP Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.90 5.1 5 5.1 5.2 6.7 percent [+]
Employed Persons 30498.00 30694 30791 30875 30948 31200 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 759.10 785 809 831 849 565 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 8517.00 8540 8560 8560 8560 8960 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 23188.00 23324 23392 23451 23501 23900 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 74.40 74.75 74.93 75.08 75.21 75.93 percent [+]
Claimant Count Change 0.40 -3 -2 -2 -2 6 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 78.40 78.51 78.55 78.57 78.59 82 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.40 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 13.30 13.09 13 12.92 12.86 9.66 percent [+]
Productivity 101.50 101 101 101 101 105 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 101.20 101 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 747.00 745 745 743 742 740 Thousand [+]
Wages 502.00 506 508 508 508 541 GBP/Week [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 586.00 585 587 587 587 636 GBP/Week [+]
Wage Growth 2.30 2 2.2 2.1 2.3 3.4 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 7.20 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 9 GBP/Hour [+]
Population 64.88 65.73 66.01 66.21 66.4 69.71 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 62.30 62.3 62.3 62.3 62.3 62.3 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1190.00 1180 1177 1176 1176 1400 GBP/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 2140.00 2130 2124 2119 2116 2280 GBP/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 1320.00 1360 1360 1360 1360 1360 GBP/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 884.00 901 900 900 900 900 GBP/Month [+]
Average Weekly Hours 32.10 32.13 32.13 32.13 32.12 32.12 Hours [+]
Employment Change 0.10 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.1 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Inflation Rate 0.50 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.4 2.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.60 102 104 105 105 121 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 100.62 102 103 104 104 116 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 101.30 103 105 105 105 122 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.40 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 102.16 106 107 108 108 122 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change -0.40 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 1.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 92.40 90 91 93 93 102 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 91.20 91 92 92 92 103 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -2.90 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 1.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices 106.70 107 108 109 109 119 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 100.90 101 102 102 102 102 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.50 0.25 0.25 0.05 0.05 1 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.52 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 4.57 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 77247.00 78547 79721 80917 82136 101715 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1525176.00 1572791 1607784 1643904 1681176 2340262 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1570935.00 1590502 1606741 1623092 1639556 1883761 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2447421.00 2460382 2472236 2484259 2496446 2730000 GBP Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 143466.67 146535 149255 151873 154449 188214 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 3418261.00 3410000 3410000 3410000 3410000 3780000 GBP Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 405132.00 412000 414000 414000 414000 458000 GBP Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2192746.00 2226056 2170000 2170000 2170000 2210000 GBP Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 1.25 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 220.15 222 221 221 221 221 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Balance of Trade -2263.00 -2419 -2355 -2398 -2404 -2404 GBP Million [+]
Exports 43090.00 43194 43175 43173 43174 43174 GBP Million [+]
Imports 45353.00 45374 45369 45368 45368 45368 GBP Million [+]
Current Account -32593.00 -33170 -33902 -34250 -34885 -44778 GBP Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -5.20 -4.7 -4.7 -4.5 -4.5 -1.5 percent [+]
External Debt -127794.00 -166265 -157562 -202966 -203772 -212109 GBP Million [+]
Terms of Trade 101.30 103 104 104 104 113 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 34134.00 16584 32495 31807 20719 24984 GBP Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 38349.00 15330 18083 16013 9557 13093 GBP Million [+]
Gold Reserves 310.29 310 310 310 310 310 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 978.00 907 908 907 907 907 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 5.61 4.99 4.99 4.97 4.96 4.91 [+]
Weapons Sales 1214.00 1421 1338 1255 1222 1261 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 89.20 84.5 85 87 87 89 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.40 -4.1 -4.1 -3.8 -3.8 -0.8 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 14855.00 -7790 -6720 -6720 -6720 -2040 GBP Million [+]
Government Spending 91501.00 92118 92400 92707 92998 96535 GBP Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 43.20 42.94 42.7 42.7 42.7 44.27 percent [+]
Government Debt -7310.00 -5482 -6045 -5501 -5635 -5580 GBP Million [+]
Military Expenditure 59729.60 59662 60172 60682 60959 63316 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 3505.00 3110 3020 3020 3020 2210 persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Business Confidence -5.00 -11 -10 -2 -2 1 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 49.10 49.2 49.4 50 50 53.1 [+]
Services PMI 47.40 48 49 50 50 54.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 1.40 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.50 -0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.70 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.6 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 79.00 79.05 79.1 79.27 79.45 79.91 percent [+]
New Orders 12413.00 12449 12438 12459 12434 12447 GBP Million [+]
Factory Orders -4.00 -8 -6 1 1 -2 Net Balance [+]
Changes in Inventories 1222.00 952 1160 704 589 255 GBP Million [+]
Bankruptcies 3694.00 3608 3683 3664 3659 2840 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 101993.00 103000 105000 105000 105000 113346 GBP Million [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -77.20 -5.36 5.21 7.5 7.5 2.14 [+]
Car Production 150802.00 143256 140739 139869 139253 138930 Units [+]
Car Registrations 255766.00 224123 204357 220984 221768 221532 Cars [+]
Small Business Sentiment 5.00 1 4 4 4 2 [+]
Steel Production 648.00 699 693 694 694 694 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -4.20 0.58 1.25 1.4 1.4 0.89 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.57 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 10.00 10 10 10 10 6 [+]
Composite Pmi 47.70 49.36 49.36 49.36 49.36 49.36 [+]
Corruption Index 81.00 81 81 81 81 85 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 10.00 10 10 10 10 6 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 6.00 6 6 6 6 2 [+]
Electricity Production 27666.00 28047 28955 27711 27253 27862 Gigawatt-hour [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -1.00 -2 -1 -1 -1 2 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.90 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.65 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.30 3.8 4.1 3.5 3.3 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 303287.00 306376 307816 308950 310033 316740 GBP Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 314110.00 319339 326294 330107 339278 424475 GBP Million [+]
Personal Savings 5.90 5.59 5.45 5.59 5.53 5.56 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 87.30 88.23 88.46 88.67 88.87 90.74 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 128.41 125 125 125 125 119 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 1503.00 1570 1580 1580 1580 1630 GBP Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.55 1.6 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.92 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Housing Starts 35390.00 33642 30582 33715 32612 31830 [+]
Construction Output -1.80 -2.3 -1.3 -1 -0.7 1.4 percent [+]
Housing Index 701.70 680 650 620 600 694 Index Points [+]
Mortgage Approvals 67.00 66.74 66.76 66.73 66.76 66.75 Thousand [+]
Home Ownership Rate 64.80 65 64.72 64.72 64.71 65 percent [+]
Construction Orders -1.20 2.48 1.95 3.35 1.75 1.91 percent [+]
Construction Pmi 46.00 54.6 44.55 55.3 55.3 52.41 [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 15 15 17 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 21 21 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 25.80 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.80 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy. 7/26/2016