United Kingdom CBI Distributive Trades

The CBI retail sales balance fell to -43 in February 2026 from -17 in January and well below market expectations of -16. Retail sales volumes have been weakening since mid-2023, and February saw a sharp decline, though the pace of contraction is expected to slow next month. Retailers reported sales for the season as “poor” and anticipate continued underperformance, reflecting persistently weak demand. Sentiment remains near a 17-year low, prompting firms to scale back investment and reduce headcount, with employment falling at the fastest rate since May 2023. Despite this, retail selling prices grew in line with long-term averages, while online retail sales surged at the fastest rate since April 2021. Orders to suppliers and stock levels eased, suggesting cautious inventory management. Overall, the sector faces ongoing pressure from soft demand and rising costs, even as online channels partially offset declines.

The CBI retail sales balance improved to -17 in January 2026 from -44 in December, the strongest reading since April 2025 and well above expectations of -35. The latest survey suggests the severe slowdown seen across UK retailers has moderated, although conditions remain challenging overall. Retailers’ outlook for the month ahead also became less negative, with the expectations balance rising to -30 from -57. Despite the improvement, the CBI cautioned that the rebound is unlikely to last, with sales projected to weaken again next month. The group said low consumer confidence and cautious spending habits continue to restrain demand.

The CBI’s retail sales balance fell to a six-month low of -44 in December 2025 from -32 in November, below market expectations of -30. Retail sales volumes declined at the fastest pace in six months, extending a prolonged downturn that has persisted since mid-2023, with conditions expected to worsen further in January as the balance drops to -57, the weakest outlook since March 2021. Sales were widely judged to be poor for the time of year, underscoring a disappointing Christmas trading period amid fragile consumer confidence. Online sales also slipped back into contraction after two months of growth, while wholesale sales fell at their steepest rate since June 2020. Across the broader distribution sector, including retail, wholesale and motor trades, sales volumes recorded their sharpest decline in more than five years. The survey points to a bleak start to 2026, with firms citing weak demand and high operating costs.