Canada | Economic Forecasts | 2013-2015 Outlook

Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Markets Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Currency 1.10 Apr-14 1.11 May-14 1.11 1.11 1.12 1.12 1.11 1.15 1.21 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.45 Apr-14 2.47 May-14 2.88 2.8 2.6 2.76 3.5 3.79 3.68 [+]
Stock Market 14500.39 Apr-14 12829 May-14 12828 12817 12826 12829 12839 13435 14202 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
GDP Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
GDP Constant Prices 1712001.00 Nov-13 1732921 Jun-14 1732921 1741345 1746011 1746761 1762404 1782535 1881971 [+]
Gdp Growth Annualized 2.89 Nov-13 2.43 Mar-14 2.43 2.78 2.93 2.62 2.83 2.99 2.75 [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 396446.00 Nov-13 396739 Mar-14 396739 395265 395198 395582 396658 396672 396621 [+]
Gross National Product 1870288.00 Nov-13 1886199 Mar-14 1886199 1905476 1881117 1881117 1949888 3299289 9679543 [+]
GDP per capita 35992.10 Dec-12 36396 Jun-14 36156 36169 36179 36187 37673 40768 51131 [+]
GDP per capita PPP 35936.26 Dec-12 36407 Jun-14 36100 36112 36123 36131 37615 40705 51051 [+]
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 Dec-13 0.94 Mar-14 0.94 0.68 0.3 0.3 0.5 2.81 2.81 [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.66 Dec-13 2.95 Mar-14 2.95 3.01 2 2 1.95 2.83 2.98 [+]
GDP 1821.40 Dec-12 1960 Jun-14 1861 1864 1867 1869 1951 2118 2657 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Labour Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Population 35.35 Dec-13 35.39 Dec-14 35.78 35.92 36.07 35.37 36.78 39.55 44.75 [+]
Employment Change 42.90 Mar-14 16.89 Apr-14 0.3 17.46 19.42 8.71 8.38 8.44 8.44 [+]
Employed Persons 17833.20 Mar-14 17863 Apr-14 17810 17862 17902 17917 21691 31395 92052 [+]
Full Time Employment 12.80 Mar-14 13.14 Apr-14 8.5 14.81 17.4 6.15 5.1 5.27 5.27 [+]
Labour Costs 113.35 Nov-13 113 Mar-14 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.50 Mar-14 65.58 Apr-14 65.47 67.45 66.1 65.48 65.52 65.54 65.53 [+]
Productivity 104.37 Nov-13 105 Mar-14 105 105 106 106 126 180 532 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 Jan-13 65 Dec-13 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 Jan-13 65 Dec-13 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Unemployed Persons 1325.40 Mar-14 1322 Apr-14 1340 1329 1325 1322 1327 1331 1330 [+]
Wages 22.99 Jan-14 23.14 Feb-14 23.31 23.3 23.46 23.59 23.85 24.11 24.12 [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 22.49 Jan-14 22.73 Feb-14 22.59 22.36 22.19 22.33 22.51 22.57 22.57 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 13.60 Mar-14 13.63 Apr-14 13.6 13.64 13.48 13.52 13.59 7.6 9.1 [+]
Unemployment Rate 6.90 Mar-14 7 Apr-14 7 6.9 6.9 6.9 7 7 7 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Prices Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Inflation Rate 1.50 Mar-14 1.24 Apr-14 1.39 1.43 1.4 1.39 1.28 4.02 3.52 [+]
Consumer Price Index (CPI) 124.80 Mar-14 125 Apr-14 125 125 125 126 139 168 297 [+]
Core Consumer Prices 122.20 Mar-14 122 Apr-14 122 123 123 123 137 172 307 [+]
Export Prices 116.10 Feb-14 116 Mar-14 113 114 114 113 111 114 111 [+]
GDP Deflator 111.20 Nov-13 111 Mar-14 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 [+]
Import Prices 117.80 Feb-14 118 Mar-14 117 118 118 118 112 115 117 [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.60 Mar-14 0.16 Apr-14 0.29 0.29 -0.02 0.49 0.25 3.5 3.5 [+]
Producer Prices 111.60 Feb-14 112 Mar-14 111 111 111 111 133 193 566 [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.80 Feb-14 1.51 Mar-14 1.51 2.44 2.68 2.37 0.56 3.82 3.57 [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.30 Mar-14 1.28 Apr-14 1.29 1.29 1.26 1.28 1.25 3.95 4 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Money Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Central Bank Balance Sheet 88028.00 Mar-14 91134 Apr-14 91689 91680 92546 94426 92162 92242 92253 [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 76450.00 Mar-14 76823 Apr-14 74686 76155 78255 78560 79929 79435 79434 [+]
Foreign Stock Investment 6080.00 Feb-14 4848 Mar-14 4848 1683 3864 1224 1191 1189 1189 [+]
Interbank Rate 1.00 Mar-14 1 Apr-14 1.01 1.02 1.25 1.25 1.5 1.51 2.24 [+]
Loans to Private Sector 218828.00 Feb-14 219301 Mar-14 223945 227368 230308 231935 229984 226192 225948 [+]
Money Supply M0 71139.00 Feb-14 71367 Mar-14 70872 71861 72747 73608 125430 343161 6159446 [+]
Money Supply M1 735990.00 Feb-14 743583 Mar-14 733775 744940 757912 770444 1363720 4858800 127927493 [+]
Money Supply M2 1249498.00 Feb-14 1253633 Mar-14 1258947 1280292 1302776 1323670 2337679 8123279 199386396 [+]
Money Supply M3 1788525.00 Feb-14 1805661 Mar-14 1803277 1846311 1892520 1935648 3468522 10661454 191492462 [+]
Interest Rate 1.00 Apr-14 1 May-14 1 1 1 1 1.25 3 3 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Trade Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Current Account -16009.00 Nov-13 -15310 Mar-14 -15310 -15549 -15822 -15699 -15552 -15394 -15398 [+]
Capital Flows -2.00 Nov-13 2.93 Mar-14 2.93 6.9 33.86 11.51 20 21.6 52.22 [+]
Crude Oil Production 3690.00 Oct-13 [+]
External Debt 602.44 Jun-13 604 Dec-13 616 620 624 627 641 685 714 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 132.00 Nov-13 -226 Mar-14 -1610 -1208 -966 -805 -604 -483 -403 [+]
Gold Reserves 2.99 Dec-13 [+]
Terms Of Trade 98.60 Feb-14 98.83 Mar-14 97.31 96.73 96.91 96.93 97.81 97.36 97.36 [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.20 Dec-13 -3.17 Jun-14 -3.09 -3.01 -2.95 -3.16 -2.8 -0.17 -0.05 [+]
Balance of Trade 289.70 Feb-14 -248 Mar-14 -174 -371 -306 -552 -1182 -1896 -1579 [+]
Exports 42346.90 Feb-14 42037 Mar-14 41535 41775 42050 41731 48817 71278 213031 [+]
Imports 42057.20 Feb-14 41737 Mar-14 41710 42146 42356 42283 49999 73174 214609 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Government Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Government Budget Value 2159.00 Jan-14 1214 Feb-14 -2833 694 510 1333 1039 1121 1121 [+]
Government Spending 350496.00 Nov-13 350690 Mar-14 350690 350904 351269 351676 423727 616368 1789831 [+]
Government Debt To GDP 84.60 Dec-12 84.23 Dec-13 84.25 84.2 84.16 84.13 84.03 83.91 83.9 [+]
Government Budget -1.00 Jun-13 -0.95 Dec-13 -0.75 -0.7 -0.66 -0.64 -0.57 -0.54 -0.54 [+]
Credit Rating 98.06 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Business Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Industrial Production 3.29 Dec-13 2.86 Jan-14 3.98 4.77 5.55 6.27 8.42 4.19 4.22 [+]
Bankruptcies 247.00 Jan-14 259 Feb-14 362 298 269 286 294 112 40.19 [+]
Capacity Utilization 82.00 Nov-13 81.76 Mar-14 81.76 82.13 82.13 81.98 81.44 81.77 81.72 [+]
Car Registrations 97624.00 Jan-14 111501 Feb-14 158924 169761 143413 127087 154725 224203 657407 [+]
Changes in Inventories 18025.00 Nov-13 17243 Mar-14 17243 18769 18877 16131 14905 15813 15726 [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 53.30 Mar-14 53.11 Apr-14 53.27 56.02 57.07 56.06 52.24 55.32 55.32 [+]
New Orders 53924825.00 Jan-14 53476792 Feb-14 52057925 52450852 52650997 52421338 51230953 51648746 51674660 [+]
Business Confidence 55.20 Mar-14 57.77 Apr-14 58.71 58.86 58.53 49.32 47.94 116 245 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Consumer Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Bank Lending Rate 3.00 Apr-14 3 May-14 3.02 3.08 3.25 3.25 3.5 2.99 2.98 [+]
Consumer Spending 954859.00 Nov-13 959508 Mar-14 959508 968163 973024 976440 1183868 1648701 5040814 [+]
Disposable Personal Income 1090364.00 Nov-13 1098694 Mar-14 1098694 1106910 1118236 1123263 1367183 1969474 5777122 [+]
Personal Savings 54700.00 Nov-13 55143 Mar-14 55143 56563 54247 54476 53856 20588 7370 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.70 Jan-14 3.37 Feb-14 4.24 4.7 5.18 5.45 6.29 4.04 4.31 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 1.30 Jan-14 0.34 Feb-14 0.28 0.23 0.01 -0.03 0.25 3.8 3.5 [+]
Consumer Confidence 84.40 Dec-13 77.68 Mar-14 77.68 85.75 86 84.55 82.37 216 432 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Taxes Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Corporate Tax Rate 26.00 Jan-14 26 Jun-14 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 29.00 Jan-14 29 Jun-14 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 [+]
Sales Tax Rate 5.00 Jan-14 5 Jun-14 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 [+]
Social Security Rate 12.53 Jan-13 12 Dec-13 14 11 10 10 9 8 7 [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.58 Jan-13 8 Dec-13 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.83 Jan-13 7 Dec-13 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Housing Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Building Permits 6148228.00 Feb-14 6860231 Mar-14 7036054 6835187 6835187 6722411 6700569 6715665 6716590 [+]
Housing Index 110.90 Feb-14 111 Mar-14 111 111 112 112 112 111 112 [+]
Housing Starts 156.82 Mar-14 185 Apr-14 197 187 189 175 177 176 177 [+]

Trading Economics forecasts are driven by our own analysts’ expectations and technically projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. First, we model the past behaviour of a time series by using vast amounts of historical data. Then, we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account, our own analyst’s assessments and future expectations. While we work hard to make our predictions accurate, please note that past performance of our forecast model is not necessarily indicative of future results. Moreover, please take into account that because countries publish their data releases in different dates and sometimes with significant delays we may have to project past data which has already some time but was not yet released by official sources. If you have any question please email us at contact@tradingeconomics.com



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Bank of Canada Leaves Rates at 1%  
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Canadian Unemployment Rate Falls for the First Time in 2014  
In March of 2014, Canadian jobless rate fell to 6.9 from 7.0 percent in the previous month and 7.2 percent a year earlier. Employment increased by 42,900, driven by gains among youths, compared with a loss of 7,000 jobs in February.
Canadian Trade Balance Turns to a CAD 290 Million Surplus  
Trade balance in Canada recorded a surplus of CAD 290 million in February of 2014, following a CAD 337 million deficit in January, as exports grew 3.6 percent and imports were up 2.1 percent. Motor vehicles and parts, and energy products improved exports, while imports increased for energy products.
Canada Inflation Rate Slows in February  
Canadian annual inflation rate decelerated for the first time in 4 months to 1.1 percent, after hitting a 19-month high 1.5 percent in January. The slowdown is mainly due to a 1.3 percent fall in gasoline prices, following a 4.6 percent increase in January.
Canada Trade Deficit Narrows Sharply in January  
Canadian trade deficit decreased to CAD 172 million in the first month of 2014 from CAD 922 million in December of 2013 as imports declined 1.6 percent while exports edged up 0.2 percent.
Canada Unemployment Rate Steady at 7%  
In February of 2014, Canada's jobless rate remained unchanged at 7 percent. There has been little overall employment growth in Canada since August 2013.
Canada Leaves Monetary Policy Unchanged  
At its March 5th, 2014 meeting, Canada's central bank decided to leave the overnight rate unchanged at 1 percent, as widely expected, citing balanced risks to inflation, housing market and household debt.
Canadian Economy Resilient in Q4  
In the last three months of 2013, Canada’s GDP advanced 0.7 percent on a quarter-on-quarter basis, the same rate recorded in the preceding quarter. The annualized growth rate was recorded at 2.9 percent, better than 2.7 percent in the third quarter.
Canada's Current Account Deficit Widened in Q4  
Canada's current account deficit increased by CAD 1.2 billion to CAD 16.0 billion in the fourth quarter of 2013. It is the highest deficit in the last five quarters, as exports fell due to lower crude oil prices and imports rose.
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This page includes economic forecasts for Canada. 4/23/2014





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