Canada | Economic Forecasts | 2013-2015 Outlook

Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Markets Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Currency 1.10 Apr-14 1.1 May-14 1.11 1.12 1.14 1.14 1.11 1.15 1.21 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.45 Apr-14 2.45 May-14 2.88 2.81 2.6 2.76 3.5 3.79 3.69 [+]
Stock Market 14257.69 Apr-14 14065 May-14 14552 15071 15461 15602 15612 13435 14202 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
GDP Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
GDP Constant Prices 1712001.00 Nov-13 1719882 Mar-14 1719882 1732921 1741345 1744135 1985921 2541469 5293354 [+]
Gdp Growth Annualized 2.89 Nov-13 2.43 Mar-14 2.43 2.78 2.93 2.62 2.83 2.99 2.75 [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 396446.00 Nov-13 396739 Mar-14 396739 395265 395198 395582 396658 396672 396621 [+]
Gross National Product 1870288.00 Nov-13 1886199 Mar-14 1886199 1905476 1881117 1881117 1949888 2763103 5771595 [+]
GDP per capita 35992.10 Dec-12 36150 Dec-13 36187 36214 36239 36261 66660 221142 5887538 [+]
GDP per capita PPP 35936.26 Dec-12 36209 Dec-13 36120 36144 36166 36185 66496 220384 5866065 [+]
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 Dec-13 0.94 Mar-14 0.94 0.68 0.3 0.3 0.5 2.81 2.81 [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.66 Dec-13 2.95 Mar-14 2.95 3.01 2 2 1.95 2.83 2.98 [+]
GDP 1821.40 Dec-12 1920 Dec-13 1860 1865 1869 1872 3454 11494 306004 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Labour Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Population 35.35 Dec-13 35.39 Dec-14 35.78 35.92 36.07 35.37 36.78 39.55 44.75 [+]
Employment Change 42.90 Mar-14 16.89 Apr-14 0.3 17.46 19.42 8.71 8.38 8.44 8.44 [+]
Employed Persons 17833.20 Mar-14 17863 Apr-14 17810 17862 17902 17917 20434 26293 54888 [+]
Full Time Employment 12.80 Mar-14 13.14 Apr-14 8.5 14.81 17.4 6.15 5.1 5.27 5.27 [+]
Labour Costs 113.35 Nov-13 113 Mar-14 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.50 Mar-14 65.58 Apr-14 65.47 67.45 66.1 65.48 65.52 65.54 65.53 [+]
Productivity 104.37 Nov-13 105 Mar-14 105 105 106 106 119 151 317 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 Jan-13 65 Dec-13 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 Jan-13 65 Dec-13 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Unemployed Persons 1325.40 Mar-14 1322 Apr-14 1340 1329 1325 1322 1327 1331 1330 [+]
Wages 22.99 Jan-14 23.14 Feb-14 23.31 23.3 23.46 23.59 23.85 24.11 24.12 [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 22.49 Jan-14 22.73 Feb-14 22.59 22.36 22.19 22.33 22.51 22.57 22.57 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 13.60 Mar-14 13.63 Apr-14 13.6 13.64 13.48 13.52 13.59 7.6 9.1 [+]
Unemployment Rate 6.90 Mar-14 7 Apr-14 7 6.9 6.9 6.9 7 7 7 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Prices Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Inflation Rate 1.50 Mar-14 1.24 Apr-14 1.39 1.43 1.4 1.39 1.28 2.52 3.52 [+]
Consumer Price Index (CPI) 124.80 Mar-14 125 Apr-14 125 125 125 126 131 141 177 [+]
Core Consumer Prices 122.20 Mar-14 122 Apr-14 122 123 123 123 129 144 183 [+]
Export Prices 116.10 Feb-14 116 Mar-14 113 114 114 113 111 114 111 [+]
GDP Deflator 111.20 Nov-13 111 Mar-14 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 [+]
Import Prices 117.80 Feb-14 118 Mar-14 117 118 118 118 112 115 117 [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.60 Mar-14 0.16 Apr-14 0.29 0.29 -0.02 0.49 0.25 1.7 2.95 [+]
Producer Prices 111.60 Feb-14 112 Mar-14 111 111 111 111 125 162 338 [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.80 Feb-14 1.51 Mar-14 1.51 2.44 2.68 2.37 0.56 3.82 3.57 [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.30 Mar-14 1.28 Apr-14 1.29 1.29 1.26 1.28 1.25 2.45 3.45 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Money Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Central Bank Balance Sheet 88028.00 Mar-14 91134 Apr-14 91689 91680 92546 94426 92162 92242 92253 [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 76450.00 Mar-14 76823 Apr-14 74686 76155 78255 78560 79929 79435 79434 [+]
Foreign Stock Investment 6080.00 Feb-14 4848 Mar-14 4848 1683 3864 1224 1191 1189 1189 [+]
Interbank Rate 1.00 Mar-14 1 Apr-14 1.01 1.02 1.25 1.25 1.5 1.51 2.24 [+]
Loans to Private Sector 218828.00 Feb-14 219301 Mar-14 223945 227368 230308 231935 229984 226192 225948 [+]
Money Supply M0 71139.00 Feb-14 71367 Mar-14 70872 71861 72747 73608 118160 287392 3672676 [+]
Money Supply M1 735990.00 Feb-14 743583 Mar-14 733775 744940 757912 770444 1284686 4069169 76278984 [+]
Money Supply M2 1249498.00 Feb-14 1253633 Mar-14 1258947 1280292 1302776 1323670 2202199 6803118 118887593 [+]
Money Supply M3 1788525.00 Feb-14 1805661 Mar-14 1803277 1846311 1892520 1935648 3267504 8928800 114180698 [+]
Interest Rate 1.00 Apr-14 1 May-14 1 1 1 1 1.25 3 3 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Trade Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Current Account -16009.00 Nov-13 -15310 Mar-14 -15310 -15549 -15822 -15699 -15552 -15394 -15398 [+]
Capital Flows -2.00 Nov-13 2.93 Mar-14 2.93 6.9 33.86 11.51 20 16.11 29.47 [+]
Crude Oil Production 3690.00 Oct-13 [+]
External Debt 602.44 Jun-13 604 Dec-13 616 620 624 627 641 685 714 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 132.00 Nov-13 -226 Mar-14 -1610 -1208 -966 -805 -604 -483 -403 [+]
Terms Of Trade 98.60 Feb-14 98.83 Mar-14 97.31 96.73 96.91 96.93 97.81 97.36 97.36 [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.20 Dec-13 -3.17 Jun-14 -3.09 -3.01 -2.95 -3.16 -2.8 -0.23 -0.05 [+]
Balance of Trade 289.70 Feb-14 -248 Mar-14 -174 -371 -306 -552 -1113 -1588 -941 [+]
Exports 42346.90 Feb-14 42037 Mar-14 41535 41775 42050 41731 45988 59694 127023 [+]
Imports 42057.20 Feb-14 41737 Mar-14 41710 42146 42356 42283 47101 61282 127964 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Government Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Government Budget Value 2159.00 Jan-14 1214 Feb-14 -2833 694 510 1333 1039 1121 1121 [+]
Government Spending 350496.00 Nov-13 350690 Mar-14 350690 350904 351269 351676 399170 516198 1067218 [+]
Government Debt To GDP 84.60 Dec-12 84.23 Dec-13 84.25 84.2 84.16 84.13 84.03 83.91 83.9 [+]
Government Budget -1.00 Jun-13 -0.95 Dec-13 -0.75 -0.7 -0.66 -0.64 -0.57 -0.54 -0.54 [+]
Credit Rating 98.06 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Business Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Industrial Production 3.29 Dec-13 2.86 Jan-14 3.98 4.77 5.55 6.27 8.42 4.19 4.22 [+]
Bankruptcies 247.00 Jan-14 259 Feb-14 362 298 269 286 294 153 75.62 [+]
Capacity Utilization 82.00 Nov-13 81.76 Mar-14 81.76 82.13 82.13 81.98 81.44 81.77 81.72 [+]
Car Registrations 97624.00 Jan-14 111501 Feb-14 158924 169761 143413 127087 145758 187766 391990 [+]
Changes in Inventories 18025.00 Nov-13 17243 Mar-14 17243 18769 18877 16131 14905 15813 15726 [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 53.30 Mar-14 53.11 Apr-14 53.27 56.02 57.07 56.06 52.24 55.32 55.32 [+]
New Orders 53924825.00 Jan-14 53476792 Feb-14 52057925 52450852 52650997 52421338 51230953 51648746 51674660 [+]
Business Confidence 55.20 Mar-14 57.77 Apr-14 58.71 58.86 58.53 49.32 47.94 86.75 138 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Consumer Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Bank Lending Rate 3.00 Apr-14 3 May-14 3.02 3.08 3.25 3.25 3.5 2.99 2.98 [+]
Consumer Spending 954859.00 Nov-13 959508 Mar-14 959508 968163 973024 976440 1115257 1380761 3005673 [+]
Disposable Personal Income 1090364.00 Nov-13 1098694 Mar-14 1098694 1106910 1118236 1123263 1287948 1649403 3444709 [+]
Personal Savings 54700.00 Nov-13 55143 Mar-14 55143 56563 54247 54476 53856 28007 13868 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.70 Jan-14 3.37 Feb-14 4.24 4.7 5.18 5.45 6.29 4.04 4.31 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 1.30 Jan-14 0.34 Feb-14 0.28 0.23 0.01 -0.03 0.25 3.8 3.5 [+]
Consumer Confidence 84.40 Dec-13 77.68 Mar-14 77.68 85.75 86 84.55 82.37 162 244 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Taxes Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Corporate Tax Rate 26.00 Jan-14 26 Jun-14 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 29.00 Jan-14 29 Jun-14 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 [+]
Sales Tax Rate 5.00 Jan-14 5 Jun-14 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 [+]
Social Security Rate 12.53 Jan-13 12 Dec-13 14 11 10 10 9 8 7 [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.58 Jan-13 8 Dec-13 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.83 Jan-13 7 Dec-13 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Housing Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Building Permits 6148228.00 Feb-14 6860231 Mar-14 7036054 6835187 6835187 6722411 6700569 6715665 6716590 [+]
Housing Index 110.90 Feb-14 111 Mar-14 111 111 112 112 112 111 112 [+]
Housing Starts 156.82 Mar-14 185 Apr-14 197 187 189 175 177 176 177 [+]

Trading Economics forecasts are driven by our own analysts’ expectations and technically projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. First, we model the past behaviour of a time series by using vast amounts of historical data. Then, we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account, our own analyst’s assessments and future expectations. While we work hard to make our predictions accurate, please note that past performance of our forecast model is not necessarily indicative of future results. Moreover, please take into account that because countries publish their data releases in different dates and sometimes with significant delays we may have to project past data which has already some time but was not yet released by official sources. If you have any question please email us at contact@tradingeconomics.com



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This page includes economic forecasts for Canada. 4/19/2014





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