India | Economic Forecasts | 2013-2015 Outlook

Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Markets Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Government Bond 10Y 8.85 Apr-14 8.8 May-14 9.52 9.78 9.66 9.66 9.16 7.41 5.89 [+]
Currency 61.09 Apr-14 60.02 May-14 59.97 59.66 59.6 59.61 59.65 58.12 48.85 [+]
Stock Market 22876.54 Apr-14 22275 May-14 22020 21582 18000 19800 19000 28329 32093 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
GDP Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
GDP Constant Prices 15952.93 Nov-13 15721 Jun-14 15721 15814 16615 16946 17765 20122 24092 [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 4971.20 Nov-13 4947 Jun-14 4947 4957 5033 5057 5023 5014 5014 [+]
Gross National Product 99965.15 Jun-13 110183 Jun-14 110529 113147 115754 118354 142086 250416 744581 [+]
GDP per capita 1106.80 Dec-12 1146 Jun-14 1135 1139 1143 1147 1229 1436 2065 [+]
GDP per capita PPP 3340.60 Dec-12 3460 Jun-14 3426 3439 3450 3462 3708 4333 6233 [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.70 Dec-13 4.94 Jun-14 4.94 4.86 4 4.8 5 3.21 3.22 [+]
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 Dec-13 1.07 Jun-14 1.07 1.21 1.22 0.95 1.22 2.97 2.72 [+]
GDP 1841.70 Dec-12 1874 Jun-14 1813 1810 1807 1805 1910 2135 2997 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Labour Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Population 1233.00 Dec-13 1241 Jun-14 1241 1245 1249 1252 1264 1328 1417 [+]
Employed Persons 28999.00 Dec-11 29465 Jun-14 29525 29561 29595 29626 33477 42752 84600 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 Jan-14 60 Jun-14 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 Jan-14 60 Jun-14 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Unemployed Persons 39963.00 Dec-09 39117 Jun-14 39117 39029 66186 38839 75450 35412 23996 [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.80 Dec-11 0.1 Jun-14 3.04 2.28 1.82 1.52 1.14 4.91 6.76 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Prices Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Inflation Rate 8.31 Mar-14 8.65 Jun-14 8.65 8.28 8.64 7.73 8.37 4.76 3.96 [+]
Consumer Price Index (CPI) 238.00 Feb-14 245 Jun-14 247 252 254 256 300 426 886 [+]
Export Prices 284.00 Jun-13 318 Jun-14 298 300 302 304 304 294 295 [+]
GDP Deflator 171.30 Dec-13 177 Jun-14 177 180 183 186 195 247 332 [+]
Import Prices 459.00 Jun-13 583 Jun-14 486 487 487 485 470 468 467 [+]
Producer Prices 179.80 Mar-14 183 Jun-14 184 187 188 189 216 265 526 [+]
Producer Prices Change 5.70 Mar-14 5.62 Jun-14 5.62 5.62 5.71 5.69 5.91 4.01 4.17 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Money Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3266.00 Apr-14 3383 Jun-14 3383 3464 3394 3345 3291 3320 3316 [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 16817.80 Apr-14 16798 Jun-14 17562 18139 18505 18751 18965 18468 18456 [+]
Interbank Rate 8.94 Mar-14 8 Jun-14 9.24 9.47 8 8.71 8 8.62 7.95 [+]
Loan Growth 14.70 Mar-14 14.52 Jun-14 14.52 14.67 14.46 14.39 14.59 14.55 14.55 [+]
Money Supply M1 21103.47 Apr-14 20888 Jun-14 20666 20910 21324 21908 25419 35480 70911 [+]
Money Supply M2 21157.87 Apr-14 20869 Jun-14 20730 20960 21402 22035 25818 42309 112377 [+]
Money Supply M3 97078.77 Apr-14 97743 Jun-14 97511 100264 103085 106229 129005 243315 784347 [+]
Interest Rate 8.00 Mar-14 7.75 Jun-14 7.99 8.22 8.2 8.18 8.36 7.77 7.05 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Trade Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Current Account -4.20 Dec-13 7.82 Jun-14 7.82 6.71 -26.5 4.98 -25.89 2.86 2.88 [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.60 Dec-12 -5.75 Jun-14 -4.92 -4.94 -4.96 -4.97 -5 -1.98 -0.95 [+]
Crude Oil Production 784.00 Dec-13 769 Nov-13 769 766 769 771 770 770 770 [+]
External Debt 390048.00 Dec-13 411503 Jun-14 410652 420102 429041 437477 460099 542669 577601 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -83.00 Feb-14 1660 Jun-14 1850 1830 1844 1882 1793 1821 1822 [+]
Remittances 10010.16 Nov-13 10898 Jun-14 10898 11138 11317 11431 11623 11472 11473 [+]
Terms of Trade 62.00 Jun-13 45.68 Jun-14 65.17 66.35 67.43 68.33 69.83 68.83 68.83 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 669000.00 Mar-14 584668 Jun-14 584668 600668 838545 750240 844835 840339 840341 [+]
Balance of Trade -10507.30 Mar-14 -10139 Jun-14 -10072 -9378 -2827 -10263 -248 -17773 52784 [+]
Exports 29578.43 Mar-14 29255 Jun-14 29255 29386 29738 30154 31686 53516 161267 [+]
Imports 40085.80 Mar-14 39327 Jun-14 39327 38764 32565 40418 31933 71289 108483 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Government Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Government Debt To GDP 67.57 Dec-12 66.8 Jun-14 67.04 66.97 66.92 66.87 66.74 66.44 66.4 [+]
Government Budget Value -5992.99 Feb-14 -3559 Jun-14 -5155 -5727 -6087 -6559 -5454 -5630 -5633 [+]
Government Spending 1907.13 Nov-13 1752 Jun-14 1752 1725 1875 1922 2135 2715 5356 [+]
Credit Rating 47.12 [+]
Government Budget -4.90 Mar-13 -5.25 Jun-14 -5.33 -5.38 -5.42 -5.45 -5.46 -2.92 -2.91 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Business Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Car Registrations 234751.00 Mar-14 189306 Jun-14 198436 205374 193078 220163 218179 276959 546364 [+]
Changes in Inventories 266.92 Nov-13 348 Jun-14 348 343 368 400 416 396 395 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.30 Mar-14 49.49 Jun-14 49.49 48.26 49.22 50.42 48.44 46.58 46.46 [+]
Manufacturing Production -3.70 Feb-14 -2.33 Jun-14 -2.33 -3.68 -3.74 -2.74 0 3.81 3.76 [+]
Services PMI 47.50 Mar-14 51.47 Jun-14 51.47 46.41 44.09 41.46 42.91 20.92 -17.9 [+]
Industrial Production -1.90 Feb-14 1.63 Jun-14 1.63 -1.8 -2.73 -2.88 0.23 3.83 3.56 [+]
Business Confidence 54.90 Dec-13 52.32 Jun-14 52.32 51.6 52.06 53.33 52.8 96.58 169 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Consumer Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Bank Lending Rate 10.25 Apr-14 10.07 Jun-14 9.87 9.83 9.95 10.07 10.05 10.08 10.05 [+]
Consumer Spending 9814.63 Nov-13 9377 Jun-14 9377 9620 9965 9908 11726 16377 33347 [+]
Disposable Personal Income 80663730.00 Jun-12 99999402 Jun-14 97853944 99927378 101984461 104025399 124009759 209275997 576397711 [+]
Personal Savings 22124.14 Jun-13 23994 Jun-14 23630 23987 24336 24677 25660 16652 10269 [+]
Consumer Confidence 115.00 Dec-13 105 Jun-14 105 111 112 109 112 201 351 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Taxes Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Corporate Tax Rate 34.00 Jan-14 34 Jun-14 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 [+]
Social Security Rate 24.00 Jan-14 24 Jun-14 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.00 Jan-14 12 Jun-14 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.00 Jan-14 12 Jun-14 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.99 Jan-14 34 Jun-14 36 36 37 38 40 47 50 [+]
Sales Tax Rate 12.36 Jan-14 12 Jun-14 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 [+]

Trading Economics forecasts are driven by our own analysts’ expectations and technically projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. First, we model the past behaviour of a time series by using vast amounts of historical data. Then, we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account, our own analyst’s assessments and future expectations. While we work hard to make our predictions accurate, please note that past performance of our forecast model is not necessarily indicative of future results. Moreover, please take into account that because countries publish their data releases in different dates and sometimes with significant delays we may have to project past data which has already some time but was not yet released by official sources. If you have any question please email us at contact@tradingeconomics.com



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This page includes economic forecasts for India. 4/24/2014