India | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for India including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the India economy.

Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.60 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.3 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.90 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.81 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.9 4.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 4.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -10437.20 -7700 -8000 -7800 -9500 -10100 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 69.00 67 67 67 70.96 70 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 64.28 65.72 66.37 68.32 67.67 78.08 [+]
Stock Market 30110.62 29500 29200 28300 28600 23800 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 6.95 6.73 6.79 6.86 6.93 7.99 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.60 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.3 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 7.00 6.5 7 7.1 6.9 5.7 percent [+]
GDP 2088.80 2190 2190 2190 2300 3100 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 30278.93 33900 35000 36200 34350 48500 INR Billion [+]
Gross National Product 56738.60 57966 58590 59214 59878 71443 INR Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 8797.63 8400 8850 8938 8976 11000 INR Billion [+]
GDP per capita 1751.70 2000 2000 2000 2500 3500 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 5730.14 6100 6100 6100 6500 7000 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 5418.51 3309 3989 4219 3671 4130 IND Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 2184.66 2136 2163 2143 2156 2530 IND Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 4756.18 5132 5074 5169 5290 4620 IND Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 896.84 920 950 960 822 925 IND Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 3789.44 3776 3752 3769 3757 3762 IND Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 594.35 610 614 620 628 713 IND Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.90 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 29650.00 29785 30013 30240 30312 32200 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 48.26 49.11 49.55 49.99 50.31 54.44 Million [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 52.50 51.9 51.51 52.45 51.46 55.32 percent [+]
Population 1299.00 1263 1266 1268 1268 1324 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Living Wage Family 19735.10 20900 21400 22000 22500 27000 INR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 12109.80 12600 12500 13000 13100 18000 INR/Month [+]
Wages 272.19 280 284 289 292 356 INR/Day [+]
Wages High Skilled 50300.00 52500 53100 54500 57000 87500 INR/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 347.30 378 382 400 402 425 INR/Day [+]
Wages Low Skilled 11900.00 14000 14600 15000 10620 18000 INR/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.90 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 13.5 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.81 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.9 4.8 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 130.80 32 134 138 140 158 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 125.40 120 123 127 120 140 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 185.30 192 196 200 205 250 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 5.70 0 7.1 7 7.1 5.9 percent [+]
Export Prices 300.00 309 309 310 310 359 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 518.00 532 532 531 500 510 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.93 2.7 2.7 3 3.1 3.3 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 117.60 120 123 128 132 151 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.15 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.32 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 4.75 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 4.00 4 4 4 4 4 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 6.27 6.56 6.3 6.3 6.25 5.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 22590.30 20160 19841 19878 19627 19589 INR Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 24161.72 20071 21287 19894 20139 19532 INR Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 124308.20 125953 128020 130064 132094 154036 INR Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 18800.61 19260 19748 19412 19544 19517 INR Billions [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 369890.00 372554 374397 375382 375908 376511 USD Million [+]
Loan Growth 5.10 6.9 6.8 7.9 4.79 7 percent [+]
Reverse Repo Rate 6.00 5.77 5.88 6 6.04 6.01 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -10437.20 -7700 -8000 -7800 -9500 -10100 USD Million [+]
Exports 29232.05 22300 22500 23000 21700 28900 USD Million [+]
Imports 39669.20 30000 30500 30800 31200 39000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -7900.00 -1000 -1500 -2200 -3546 -1460 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -1.25 -1.25 -1.25 -1.25 -1.12 -0.7 percent [+]
External Debt 456100.00 444000 443000 434000 428000 382000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 57.90 63.83 66.3 68.77 69.57 76 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -19.06 11.58 24.75 28.32 16.8 13.26 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 874.00 2841 2823 2806 2806 2807 USD Million [+]
Remittances 9888.18 9878 9843 9835 9833 9830 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 956000.00 695549 751844 802715 777488 762000 [+]
Gold Reserves 557.77 558 558 558 558 558 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 735.00 732 732 732 732 732 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 7.48 7.52 7.48 7.45 7.45 7.7 [+]
Weapons Sales 33.00 36.1 36.09 36.09 31.89 19.68 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 69.00 67 67 67 70.96 70 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.50 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5 -4.07 -1.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -6056.14 -4249 -4495 -4545 -4506 -1220 INR Billion [+]
Government Spending 3165.95 3443 3585 3120 3534 3520 INR Billion [+]
Government Revenues 11474.06 4020 5824 6643 5893 6029 INR Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 17530.20 8378 10522 11173 10450 10618 INR Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 51115.90 51932 51617 51302 51305 53020 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 57.20 55 54.5 56 56.8 59 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 52.50 52 52.8 53.3 52.8 51.2 [+]
Services PMI 51.50 52 53 54 52.9 51.9 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production -1.20 1.1 2.3 2.4 1.2 1.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 3.90 2.41 0.3 1.41 1.46 0.87 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -2.00 1.3 1 -0.42 0.9 2.6 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 730.70 731 717 716 703 702 INR Billion [+]
Car Production 269371.00 243183 252537 248813 250380 249905 Units [+]
Car Registrations 262735.00 245973 250022 249210 249311 249314 Cars [+]
Cement Production 21454.00 23753 23254 22886 22935 22999 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.61 5.51 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 39.00 55 55 55 45 51 [+]
Composite Pmi 52.30 51.5 52.4 52.9 54 51.6 [+]
Corruption Index 40.00 38 38 38 40 42 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 79.00 76 79 76 79 72 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 130.00 1290 129 129 133 126 [+]
Steel Production 8113.00 8227 8215 8233 8233 8230 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 3.30 3.5 4.1 2.3 1.9 2.1 percent [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 66.00 63.4 64 64.29 64.3 64.7 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 136.00 127 133 132 130 133 [+]
Consumer Spending 17783.53 17900 18100 19700 19950 21000 INR Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 154965120.00 159221876 163960285 168698694 172029365 231000000 INR Million [+]
Personal Savings 26099.21 26928 27213 27498 27930 31398 INR Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 9.65 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 7.5 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.02 1.02 1.03 0.97 0.96 0.86 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 10.50 10.84 10.92 11 11.07 11.4 percent of GDP [+]
Mni Consumer Sentiment 112.70 112 112 112 112 112 [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 238.00 247 249 251 216 264 Index Points [+]
Construction Output 1.00 4.2 4.5 4.4 3.9 3 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 34.61 34.61 34.63 34 34 33 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.54 35.54 35.54 35.54 35.54 35.54 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 18 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 24.00 24 24 24 24 24 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]