Indonesia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Indonesia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Indonesia economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -1.77 3.7 3.5 -1.5 0.3 -0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.61 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.61 4.2 4.7 4.2 4 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 1234.00 -184 1255 16.6 122 300 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 27.00 29 29 29 32 35 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 13290.00 13400 13600 14000 13800 16000 [+]
Stock Market 5726.53 5510 5460 5290 5350 4450 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 7.09 7.1 7.17 7.24 7.31 8.44 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -1.77 3.7 3.5 -1.5 0.3 -0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.94 5.1 5.2 5.2 4.9 5.1 percent [+]
GDP 861.93 917 917 917 925 938 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 2385577.10 2473553 2552587 2505452 2460000 2916976 IDR Billion [+]
Gross National Product 701250.16 787000 771000 783000 790200 835117 IDR Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 804145.64 791000 816000 859000 790000 968000 IDR Billion [+]
GDP per capita 3834.06 3867 3900 3933 3954 4254 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 10385.30 10481 10569 10657 10716 11559 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 45636.50 81500 81000 47300 83000 48200 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 245436.80 248000 250010 261000 259000 303000 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 508180.60 530000 529000 528534 523000 589595 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 196384.70 201699 198907 200557 204200 204750 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Services 40746.10 43085 43983 44692 45200 55313 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 30895.90 33800 34450 34700 33500 54300 IDR Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.61 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 120647697.00 122238619 121953223 121667827 124012136 128453451 [+]
Unemployed Persons 7024172.00 7294815 7205007 7255199 7380609 7509728 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 68.06 67.5 67.8 67.8 68.1 68.2 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 2353.10 2614 2850 2788 2910 3368 IDR THO/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.9 4.5 IDR Million/Month [+]
Population 258.70 260 261 262 262 271 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58 58 58 58 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 58.00 58 58 58 58 60 [+]
Living Wage Family 3181234.00 3004287 2898616 2800423 2701641 1604161 [+]
Wages Low Skilled 2700000.00 3400000 3600000 3600000 4000000 4500000 IDR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 4000000.00 4500000 4500000 4500000 4800000 5700000 IDR/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.61 4.2 4.7 4.2 4 3.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.02 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 128.22 129 130 133 128 149 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 120.46 122 123 124 125 140 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 3.30 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.8 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 133.92 136 138 140 142 151 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 156.17 158 160 163 165 189 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 141.90 144 143 141 147 155 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 131.88 133 134 135 137 147 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.99 6.5 6.3 5.8 5.1 4 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 127.37 133 135 136 136 143 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 9.30 5.2 4.9 5.1 5.6 3.6 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 6.85 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.2 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 462442.71 513000 517000 522000 528000 560000 IDR Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 1196066.40 1289366 1319695 1359797 1390000 1649900 IDR Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 4942499.90 5060000 5180000 5200000 5260000 6690000 IDR Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 121806.00 118000 115000 115000 117000 129000 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 3853632.00 3870878 4224388 3847321 4290215 3820856 IDR Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 7.20 6 5 5 5 7 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 6.50 6.5 6.5 5.5 5.5 6 percent [+]
Lending Rate 5.50 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 6.25 percent [+]
Loan Growth 8.60 7.5 7.3 7.1 6.8 5.9 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 1234.00 -184 1255 16.6 122 300 USD Million [+]
Exports 14591.80 12530 12947 13359 13162 16500 USD Million [+]
Imports 13357.80 12714 11692 13343 12441 16200 USD Million [+]
Current Account -1812.00 -1300 -900 -1600 -1200 -3100 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -1.80 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.5 -2.2 percent [+]
External Debt 316968.36 324811 340000 320053 320960 397249 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 107.58 108 107 104 108 106 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 97.00 103575 105682 106162 107968 127611 IDR Trillion [+]
Remittances 2096.00 2400 2320 2200 2380 2600 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 838686.00 938490 1050000 1113980 1056666 1485815 [+]
Gold Reserves 78.07 78.07 78.07 78.07 78.07 78.07 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 830.00 780 770 780 770 830 BBL/D/1K [+]
Weapons Sales 4.00 5 7 5 5 7 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 4.43 5.2 5.2 5.2 4.9 4 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 27.00 29 29 29 32 35 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.53 -3.1 -3.1 -3.1 -2.8 -2.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -305229.70 -334582 -334582 -334582 -319636 -297086 IDR Billion [+]
Government Spending 261108.59 189422 191867 268681 140979 291858 IDR Billion [+]
Government Revenues 1555119.80 2085590 2085590 2085590 2294149 2735670 IDR Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 1860349.50 2420172 2420172 2420172 2613785 3032756 IDR Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 8070.70 9210 9500 9783 9783 15162 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 106.70 110 109 107 105 108 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 50.50 50.9 49.5 51 51.4 51.5 [+]
Industrial Production 4.50 1.3 4.9 6.5 5.5 6.6 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.10 -3 2.1 3 2 1.8 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 76.92 77.2 77 77.5 76.9 77.8 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -30471.34 53296 54952 -17600 47500 -29600 IDR Billion [+]
Car Registrations 101484.00 100100 93837 96320 120400 126000 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.52 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.9 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 41.00 35 35 35 33 30 [+]
Copper Production 264255.00 210000 240840 230000 250000 330000 Tonnes [+]
Corruption Index 37.00 39 39 39 42 45 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 90.00 82 82 82 80 77 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 91.00 87 87 87 85 79 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 121.50 117 115 114 113 116 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -4.90 2 3.11 5.5 3.6 2.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.70 1.7 10.8 11 12.2 12 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1307300.00 1310905 1358502 1350803 1307090 1624301 IDR Billion [+]
Consumer Credit 1985711.00 2010280 2034215 2032785 2037576 2086740 IDR Billion [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 16.70 17 17.1 17.3 17.3 17.7 percent of GDP [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.48 0.51 0.52 0.54 0.54 0.6 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 195.17 197 198 199 201 222 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00 25 25.82 25.82 25 26.72 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 15.74 15.74 15.8 15.74 15.74 15.74 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 11.74 11.74 11.74 11.74 11.74 11.74 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00 4 4.06 4 4 4 percent [+]