Indonesia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Indonesia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Indonesia economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.34 3.7 3.5 -1.5 0.3 -0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.33 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.4 6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 4.17 4.2 4.7 4.2 4 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.5 5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 1238.30 900 1408 -140 1700 300 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 27.90 29 29 29 32 35 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 13279.00 13400 13600 14000 13800 16000 [+]
Stock Market 5703.43 5510 5460 5290 5350 4450 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 6.95 7.1 7.17 7.24 7.31 8.44 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.34 3.7 3.5 -1.5 0.3 -0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.01 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.1 percent [+]
GDP 861.93 917 917 917 925 938 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 2377500.00 2473553 2552587 2505452 2460000 2916976 IDR Billion [+]
Gross National Product 701250.16 787000 771000 783000 790200 835117 IDR Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 760546.15 791000 816000 859000 790000 968000 IDR Billion [+]
GDP per capita 3834.06 3867 3900 3933 3954 4254 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 10385.30 10481 10569 10657 10716 11559 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 87974.80 90500 88000 51300 94000 71200 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 245400.00 248000 250010 261000 259000 303000 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 510800.00 530000 529000 525158 530000 582589 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 194854.70 165699 193907 198557 195200 202750 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Services 41647.40 43085 43983 44692 45200 55313 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 31357.60 33800 34450 34700 35500 54300 IDR Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.33 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.4 6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 120647697.00 121667827 121667827 121667827 124012136 128453451 [+]
Unemployed Persons 7024172.00 7255199 7255199 7255199 7380609 7509728 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 68.06 68.5 68.5 68.5 68.8 69.1 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 2353.10 2614 2850 2788 2910 3800 IDR THO/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.9 4.5 IDR Million/Month [+]
Population 258.70 260 261 262 262 271 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58 58 58 58 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 58.00 58 58 58 58 60 [+]
Wages High Skilled 4000000.00 4500000 4500000 4500000 4800000 5700000 IDR/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 2700000.00 3400000 3600000 3600000 4000000 4500000 IDR/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 3181234.00 3200000 3230000 3280000 3320000 3700000 [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 4.17 4.2 4.7 4.2 4 3.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.09 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 128.33 129 130 133 128 149 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 120.62 122 123 124 125 140 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 3.28 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.8 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 135.74 136 138 140 142 151 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 156.83 158 160 163 165 189 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 145.80 144 143 141 147 155 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 133.36 133 134 135 137 147 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.80 6.5 6.3 5.8 5.1 4 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 127.72 133 135 136 136 143 Index Points [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 125.45 126 128 129 130 143 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 8.30 6.2 5.4 5.1 5.6 3.6 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.5 5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 6.86 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.2 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 468847.40 513000 517000 522000 528000 560000 IDR Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 1215762.20 1289366 1319695 1359797 1390000 1649900 IDR Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 5017000.00 5060000 5180000 5200000 5260000 6690000 IDR Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 123249.43 125000 125000 126000 128000 152000 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 3905475.00 3907681 4224388 3909566 4290215 5007960 IDR Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 7.20 6 5 5 5 7 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 6.50 6.5 6.5 5.5 5.5 6 percent [+]
Lending Rate 5.50 5.5 5.5 5.5 5 6 percent [+]
Loan Growth 9.20 7.5 7.3 7.1 6.8 5.9 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 1238.30 900 1408 -140 1700 300 USD Million [+]
Exports 13166.60 13800 13100 13359 14500 16500 USD Million [+]
Imports 11928.30 12900 11692 13500 12800 16200 USD Million [+]
Current Account -2397.00 -2800 -2600 -1600 -2000 -3100 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -1.80 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 -2 -2.2 percent [+]
External Debt 316968.36 320053 320053 320053 333681 377248 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 109.30 108 107 104 108 106 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 97.00 103575 105682 106162 107968 127611 IDR Trillion [+]
Remittances 1930.00 2200 2100 2120 2080 2600 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 909173.00 938490 1050000 1113980 1056666 1485815 [+]
Gold Reserves 78.07 78.07 78.07 78.07 78.07 78.07 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 830.00 780 770 780 770 830 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 4.43 5.2 5.2 5.2 4.9 4 [+]
Weapons Sales 94.00 105 105 105 58 64 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 27.90 29 29 29 32 35 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.46 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 -2.2 -2 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -305229.70 -334582 -334582 -334582 -319636 -297086 IDR Billion [+]
Government Spending 142202.92 189422 191867 268681 140979 291858 IDR Billion [+]
Government Revenues 1555119.80 2085590 2085590 2085590 2294149 2735670 IDR Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 1860349.50 2420172 2420172 2420172 2613785 3032756 IDR Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 8070.70 9783 9783 9783 8134 13162 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 103.42 108 109 107 101 108 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.20 50.4 49.5 51 51.4 51.5 [+]
Industrial Production 5.50 1.3 4.9 6.5 5.5 6.6 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 1.80 -3 2.1 3 2 1.8 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 76.92 77.2 77 77.5 77 77.8 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 43783.62 52889 54952 -17600 47500 -29600 IDR Billion [+]
Car Registrations 89588.00 100100 93837 94320 107400 115000 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.52 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.9 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 41.00 35 35 35 33 30 [+]
Copper Production 264255.00 210000 280840 230000 250000 330000 Tonnes [+]
Corruption Index 37.00 39 39 39 42 45 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 90.00 82 82 82 80 77 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 91.00 87 87 87 85 79 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 123.70 122 121 122 119 123 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 3.50 2 3.11 5.5 3.6 2.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.20 1.7 10.8 11 12.2 12 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1309070.90 1310905 1358502 1350803 1377090 1624301 IDR Billion [+]
Consumer Credit 2008610.00 2039649 2034215 2086634 2102311 2202505 IDR Billion [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.48 0.5 0.52 0.54 0.54 0.6 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 16.70 17 17.1 17.3 17.3 17.7 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 199.20 201 203 206 209 231 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 15.74 15.74 15.74 15.74 15.74 15.74 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 11.74 11.74 11.74 11.74 11.74 11.74 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00 4 4 4 4 4 percent [+]