Indonesia | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.20 -1.4 0.2 3.7 3.5 -0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.61 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.58 3.2 3.4 3.7 3.6 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 5.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 1206.80 209 470 1234 1142 548 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 27.00 28 29 29 29 30 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Currency 13520.00 13504 13637 13771 13905 16044 [+]
Stock Market 5245.96 5140 5090 5040 4990 4150 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 8.09 7.95 8.03 8.11 8.18 9.44 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.20 -1.4 0.2 3.7 3.5 -0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.02 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 percent [+]
GDP 861.93 892 917 917 917 938 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 2428722.30 2386145 2380003 2473553 2552587 2916976 IDR Billion [+]
Gross National Product 701250.16 762000 785000 787000 771000 835117 IDR Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 767669.58 816000 766000 791000 816000 968000 IDR Billion [+]
GDP per capita 3834.06 3940 3965 3989 4013 4311 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 10385.30 10787 10892 10997 11103 12455 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 79310.50 39600 80500 81500 80000 42200 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 236374.00 248000 245000 248000 250010 303000 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 511165.20 509000 514000 530000 529000 591462 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 190172.90 181919 185213 182699 181907 198750 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Services 40097.80 41229 42273 43085 43983 55313 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 30453.90 31800 30500 33800 34450 54300 IDR Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.61 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 120647697.00 122809410 122238619 121953223 121667827 128453451 [+]
Unemployed Persons 7024172.00 7024239 7214623 7294815 7205007 7509728 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 68.06 68 67.5 67.5 67.8 68.2 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 2030.84 2582 2648 2714 2850 3685 IDR THO/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 3.10 3.1 3.6 3.6 3.1 4.5 IDR Million/Month [+]
Population 255.46 259 259 260 261 271 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58 58 58 58 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 58.00 58 58 58 58 60 [+]
Wages Low Skilled 2700000.00 3000000 3200000 3400000 3600000 4500000 IDR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 4000000.00 4000000 4500000 4500000 4500000 5700000 IDR/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Inflation Rate 3.58 3.2 3.4 3.7 3.6 3.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.47 0.7 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.5 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 126.18 127 128 129 130 149 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 118.96 120 121 122 123 140 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 3.07 3.3 3.7 4 4.2 4.8 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 132.45 132 133 133 134 144 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 152.64 155 156 158 160 189 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 138.50 140 141 143 145 155 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 128.73 129 129 130 131 139 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 8.50 6.2 5.9 6.5 6.3 4 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 135.10 135 135 135 135 142 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 8.60 8.1 7.3 5.2 4.9 3.6 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Interest Rate 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 5.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 7.01 67 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.2 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 469541.70 495000 509000 530000 517000 560000 IDR Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 1126042.20 1160580 1180413 1201084 1222571 1570500 IDR Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 4737318.10 4850000 4870000 5060000 5180000 6690000 IDR Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 115035.00 113000 111000 112000 113000 129000 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 3796198.00 3848812 3880990 3922873 3854388 4073887 IDR Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 8.30 6 6 6 5 7 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 6.50 6.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 6 percent [+]
Lending Rate 5.50 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 6.25 percent [+]
Loan Growth 6.47 7.5 8.1 7.5 7.3 5.9 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Balance of Trade 1206.80 209 470 1234 1142 548 USD Million [+]
Exports 12679.00 11320 11203 12891 11766 13100 USD Million [+]
Imports 11472.20 11100 10700 11600 10600 13000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -4493.00 -4331 -4078 -3838 -3145 -5630 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.06 -2.5 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -1.5 percent [+]
External Debt 310670.25 328397 332466 336534 340000 385917 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 107.55 108 108 109 110 112 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 99700.00 116500 110500 128300 124400 167064 IDR Billion [+]
Remittances 2192.00 2348 2200 2182 2420 2143 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 913589.00 1020000 919000 938000 1050000 1380000 [+]
Gold Reserves 78.07 78.07 78.07 78.07 78.07 78.07 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 847.00 780 770 780 770 830 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 4.43 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.2 4 [+]
Weapons Sales 4.00 6 6 5 7 7 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 27.00 28 29 29 29 30 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.53 -2.7 -3.1 -3.1 -3.1 -2.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -298494.80 -276246 -334582 -334582 -334582 -297086 IDR Billion [+]
Government Spending 187185.50 280000 145000 189000 210000 309000 IDR Billion [+]
Government Revenues 1508020.40 1647283 2085590 2085590 2085590 2735670 IDR Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 1806515.20 2200156 2420172 2420172 2420172 3032756 IDR Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 8070.70 8726 9285 9210 9500 15162 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Business Confidence 107.89 107 100 102 104 108 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 49.70 50.1 50.8 50.2 50.5 51.5 [+]
Industrial Production 0.50 8.2 5.9 6.1 7.2 6.6 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -2.80 2.5 4.5 3.7 2.1 1.8 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 76.21 77.3 76.8 77.5 77 77.8 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 60856.23 -38679 50630 53112 54157 -29600 IDR Billion [+]
Car Registrations 91990.00 77300 101510 92470 102740 118000 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.52 4.52 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.9 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 41.00 36 35 35 35 30 [+]
Copper Production 194284.00 280000 220000 294000 300840 390000 Tonnes [+]
Corruption Index 36.00 37 39 39 39 48.74 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 88.00 85 82 82 82 77 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 91.00 106 105 105 105 96 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 116.80 112 109 107 108 116 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -3.80 6.8 4 2 3.11 2.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 6.50 8.9 12.4 13.3 13.3 12 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1307683.80 1305995 1297090 1310905 1358502 1464301 IDR Billion [+]
Consumer Credit 1938080.00 1970475 1991006 2018526 2034215 2141807 IDR Billion [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.49 0.5 0.51 0.51 0.52 0.6 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 16.80 16.8 16.9 17 17.1 17.7 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Housing Index 194.37 2.75 198 200 201 237 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 15.74 12.74 12.74 12.74 15.74 12.74 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 11.74 9.74 9.74 9.74 11.74 9.74 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00 3 3 3 4 3 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Indonesia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Indonesia economy. 12/2/2016