Indonesia | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate -1.77 0.4 3.7 3.5 -1.5 -0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.61 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.83 4.1 4.2 4.7 4.2 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 1318.90 868 -184 1255 16.6 300 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 27.00 29 29 29 29 35 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 13290.00 13489 13622 13756 14023 16026 [+]
Stock Market 5567.13 5330 5280 5230 5120 4310 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 7.11 7.62 7.69 7.77 7.84 9.05 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate -1.77 0.4 3.7 3.5 -1.5 -0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.94 5 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 percent [+]
GDP 861.93 917 917 917 917 938 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 2385577.10 2380003 2473553 2552587 2505452 2916976 IDR Billion [+]
Gross National Product 701250.16 785000 787000 771000 783000 835117 IDR Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 804145.64 766000 791000 816000 859000 968000 IDR Billion [+]
GDP per capita 3834.06 3842 3875 3908 3940 4311 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 10385.30 10483 10584 10685 10787 12455 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 45636.50 80500 81500 81000 47300 48200 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 245436.80 245000 248000 250010 261000 303000 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 508180.60 514000 530000 529000 528534 589595 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 196384.70 200213 201699 198907 200557 204750 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Services 40746.10 42273 43085 43983 44692 55313 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 30895.90 30500 33800 34450 34700 54300 IDR Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.61 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 120647697.00 122524014 122238619 121953223 121667827 128453451 [+]
Unemployed Persons 7024172.00 7334431 7294815 7205007 7255199 7509728 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 68.06 67.5 67.5 67.8 67.8 68.2 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 2353.10 2506 2614 2850 2788 3368 IDR THO/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 4.5 IDR Million/Month [+]
Population 258.70 259 260 261 262 271 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58 58 58 58 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 58.00 58 58 58 58 60 [+]
Living Wage Family 3181234.00 3116451 3004287 2898616 2800423 1604161 [+]
Wages Low Skilled 2700000.00 3200000 3400000 3600000 3600000 4500000 IDR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 4000000.00 4500000 4500000 4500000 4500000 5700000 IDR/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 3.83 4.1 4.2 4.7 4.2 3.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.23 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.5 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 123.51 128 129 130 133 149 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 120.34 121 122 123 124 140 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 3.41 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.8 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 133.92 134 136 138 140 151 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 155.95 156 158 160 163 189 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 142.00 144 144 143 141 155 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 131.09 132 133 134 135 147 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 4.39 5.9 6.5 6.3 5.8 4 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 123.74 132 133 135 136 143 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 9.30 7.3 5.2 4.9 5.1 3.6 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 6.87 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.2 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 470333.00 509000 513000 517000 522000 560000 IDR Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 1191581.90 1258944 1289366 1319695 1359797 1649900 IDR Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 4936431.60 5030000 5060000 5180000 5200000 6690000 IDR Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 119863.00 116400 118000 115000 115000 129000 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 3855600.00 3937383 3965348 4224388 4000605 4076206 IDR Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 8.30 6 6 5 5 7 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 6.50 6.5 6.5 6.5 5.5 6 percent [+]
Lending Rate 5.50 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 6.25 percent [+]
Loan Growth 8.30 8.1 7.5 7.3 7.1 5.9 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade 1318.90 868 -184 1255 16.6 300 USD Million [+]
Exports 12574.50 12819 12530 12947 13359 16500 USD Million [+]
Imports 11255.60 11951 12714 11692 13343 16200 USD Million [+]
Current Account -1812.00 -1500 -1300 -900 -1600 -3100 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -1.80 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -2.2 percent [+]
External Debt 316968.36 327190 324811 340000 320053 397249 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 108.31 109 108 107 104 106 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 101300.00 100905 103575 105682 106162 127611 IDR Billion [+]
Remittances 2096.00 2500 2400 2320 2200 2600 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 900793.00 918840 938490 1050000 1113980 1485815 [+]
Gold Reserves 78.07 78.07 78.07 78.07 78.07 78.07 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 847.00 770 780 770 780 830 BBL/D/1K [+]
Weapons Sales 4.00 6 5 7 5 7 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 4.43 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 4 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 27.00 29 29 29 29 35 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.53 -3.1 -3.1 -3.1 -3.1 -2.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -305229.70 -334582 -334582 -334582 -334582 -297086 IDR Billion [+]
Government Spending 261108.59 135687 189422 191867 268681 291858 IDR Billion [+]
Government Revenues 1555119.80 2085590 2085590 2085590 2085590 2735670 IDR Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 1860349.50 2420172 2420172 2420172 2420172 3032756 IDR Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 8070.70 9285 9210 9500 9783 15162 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 106.70 107 110 109 107 108 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 49.30 50.1 50.9 49.5 51 51.5 [+]
Industrial Production 4.50 -0.8 1.3 4.9 6.5 6.6 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.10 -2 -3 2.1 3 1.8 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 76.28 76.4 77.2 77 77.5 77.8 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -30471.34 49806 53296 54952 -17600 -29600 IDR Billion [+]
Car Registrations 86252.00 107510 100100 93837 96320 126000 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.52 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.9 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 41.00 35 35 35 35 30 [+]
Copper Production 195896.00 220000 210000 240840 230000 330000 Tonnes [+]
Corruption Index 37.00 39 39 39 39 45 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 90.00 82 82 82 82 77 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 91.00 87 87 87 87 79 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 117.10 116 117 115 114 116 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -4.90 4 2 3.11 5.5 2.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 6.30 10.1 6.7 10.8 11 12 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1307300.00 1297090 1310905 1358502 1350803 1624301 IDR Billion [+]
Consumer Credit 1971698.00 1999756 2023839 2034215 2056692 2135764 IDR Billion [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 16.70 16.9 17 17.1 17.3 17.7 percent of GDP [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.48 0.5 0.51 0.52 0.54 0.6 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Housing Index 195.17 195 197 198 199 222 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 15.74 15.74 15.74 15.8 15.74 15.74 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 11.74 11.74 11.74 11.74 11.74 11.74 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00 4 4 4 4 4 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Indonesia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Indonesia economy. 3/26/2017