In the first quarter of 2013, the economy expanded 6.02 percent yoy, its slowest pace since the third quarter of 2010, and down from 6.11 percent recorded in the last three months of 2012. Slowing private consumption and disappointing capital investment, together with a contraction in the mining sector were the main contributors to the faltering expansion. In fact, private consumption, one of the main drivers of the economy in recent years, rose only by 5.17 percent yoy in the March quarter, down from a 5.38 percent increase in the previous quarter. Also, in April, the inflation rate was reported at 5.6 percent, well above the central bank target range, mainly due to a rise in food prices. To make things even worst, despite the rupiah depreciation, depressed global demand and lower prices of commodities still weight on exports, which in February dropped for the third month in a row. More importantly, so far the government was unable to increase the price of gasoline. Indeed, subsidized fuel prices are making hole in a budget, creating an upward pressure in the budget deficit and eating resources from other needed reforms, such as improving infrastructure. On the positive side, in February the unemployment rate decreased to 5.92 percent, the lowest level in four years. Moreover, in the first three months of 2013, foreign direct investment rose by 27.2 percent yoy.

In the first quarter of 2013, the GDP expanded 6.02 percent yoy, and 1.41 percent qoq, below both market and central bank expectations. In March, exports declined 13 percent yoy, fourth consecutive month of contraction. |
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In March, Indonesia posted the first trade surplus in 6 months, mainly due to a drop in imports. In fact, imports, which have been steady rising in the last two years, dropped 0.44 percent yoy in the first quarter of 2013.
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In the first quarter of 2013, consumer spending grew only 5.17 percent yoy. Retail sales, which have been on a downward trend since August of 2012, slowed in March to 10.2 percent yoy.
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In the last 12 months, Indonesian rupiah has depreciated 5.4 percent against the U.S. dollar supported by surging current account deficit. |