Nigeria | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 8.99 1.8 -11.8 1.2 7.9 2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 13.30 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.3 12.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 18.30 19.5 19.9 18.8 18.2 8.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 14.00 14 14 15 14 10.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -27238.30 40000 -10000 -23000 -20000 -17600 NGN Millions [+]
Government Debt to GDP 11.50 13 13.5 13.5 13.5 12.8 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Currency 315.00 307 310 313 316 365 [+]
Stock Market 25817.69 25300 25100 24800 24600 20500 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 15.89 15.52 15.68 15.83 15.98 18.44 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 8.99 1.8 -11.8 1.2 7.9 2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate -2.24 -1.9 -0.6 -0.2 0.1 3.98 percent [+]
GDP 481.07 410 377 377 377 690 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 17794905.98 18900000 16500000 17200000 17800000 2300000 NGN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2874594.00 2650000 2630000 2620000 2700000 3020000 NGN Million [+]
GDP per capita 2548.20 2548 2545 2545 2545 2790 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 5638.89 5637 5635 5635 5635 5800 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 5035069.07 4580000 3350000 3940000 5270000 591000 NGN Million [+]
GDP From Construction 543808.12 660066 635903 688092 563560 599017 NGN Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 1614894.65 1600000 1487118 1546599 1520000 1820000 NGN Million [+]
GDP From Mining 1624018.01 1440000 1250000 1220000 1260000 1360000 NGN Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 371731.33 413173 363321 397105 373644 392016 NGN Millions [+]
GDP From Services 6085747.17 7100000 608000 6110000 650000 7670000 NGN Millions [+]
GDP From Transport 210972.66 222000 162000 175000 192000 225000 NGN Millions [+]
GDP From Utilities 82806.37 56000 61000 58000 62000 114000 NGN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 13.30 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.3 12.4 percent [+]
Population 182.20 186 187 188 190 203 Million [+]
Employed Persons 69042.30 68304 68221 67680 67184 74705 Thousand [+]
Employment Change 79465.00 52000 40000 63000 74000 200000 Jobs [+]
Employment Rate 86.40 86.2 86.1 85.9 85.7 87.6 percent [+]
Unemployed Persons 10644.00 12115 12535 13035 13485 12465 Thousand [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 24.00 22.9 22.6 23.1 22.5 18.9 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Inflation Rate 18.30 19.5 19.9 18.8 18.2 8.4 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 209.70 219 226 239 252 360 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 205.90 217 224 237 249 357 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 18.10 22.8 20.2 19.5 19.7 8.2 percent [+]
Food Inflation 17.10 19.2 18.8 17.6 17.9 7.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.83 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.5 0.7 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 151.12 160 147 152 140 164 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 203.40 213 219 226 233 306 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Interest Rate 14.00 14 14 15 14 10.5 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 22.50 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 20 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 1794287.84 1908850 1904709 1840887 1751100 1811767 NGN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 9949385.47 9644939 10005912 10351657 10688137 15356062 NGN Million [+]
Money Supply M2 22133478.32 22906875 23603377 24088200 24844878 37243913 NGN Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 24695.00 25500 23200 21800 21000 21000 USD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 9.10 10.15 10.15 10.15 10.15 9.13 percent [+]
Lending Rate 17.09 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.8 16 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.00 18.48 18.48 18.48 18.48 0.4 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Balance of Trade -27238.30 40000 -10000 -23000 -20000 -17600 NGN Millions [+]
Exports 747759.80 320000 300000 285000 310000 451000 NGN Millions [+]
Imports 774998.20 280000 300000 308000 330000 627000 NGN Millions [+]
Current Account -404.65 -551 -173 1620 1489 3041 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.80 -2.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 4.4 percent [+]
Terms of Trade 77.72 68 77 82 95 107 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 673.95 654 528 698 755 1160 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows 7092.36 -2628 -3302 -7929 -4562 2945 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 21.37 21.37 21.37 21.37 21.37 21.37 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 1476.00 1580 1520 1500 1480 1620 BBL/D/1K [+]
External Debt 11261.89 11900 11800 12100 12200 14825 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 9.31 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.4 8.9 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 11.50 13 13.5 13.5 13.5 12.8 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.60 -4.2 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -2.3 percent of GDP [+]
Government Revenues 677.90 859 676 620 1336 1235 NGN Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 2298.40 2092 2050 2050 2050 2486 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 834480.00 1019787 1052011 1081817 1055934 1163507 NGN Million [+]
Government Budget Value -656.29 -772 -504 -891 -50.62 -487 NGN Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 1334.08 1631 1180 1264 1387 1722 NGN Billion [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Business Confidence -24.10 -19 -16 -11 -9 3.18 [+]
Industrial Production 0.10 -5.5 -3 -2 1.5 3.5 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -3.30 -0.1 0.9 1.1 1.8 3.7 percent [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 41.60 53.2 53.8 55.7 55.5 60 [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 46.00 44.4 45 45.2 46 51.3 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 169.00 170 169 169 169 155 [+]
Corruption Index 26.00 28 29 29 29 28 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 136.00 137 138 138 138 133 [+]
Changes In Inventories 127424.00 121200 135000 129000 145000 161800 NGN Million [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.39 3.46 3.46 3.46 3.46 3.5 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 124.00 124 123 123 123 126 [+]
Composite Pmi 47.70 46.4 47.8 47.5 48.8 53 [+]
Capacity Utilization 50.70 52 51 51 52 59 percent [+]
Services Pmi 42.80 43.9 45.5 47 48 52.75 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -28.20 -25 -20 -22 -13 3.23 [+]
Consumer Spending 12137990.85 9000000 8650000 9100000 11000000 12900000 NGN Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 17054468.00 17561602 16483073 16122255 17970299 21904999 NGN Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 22592627.58 22894232 22381872 21724982 21583278 31091401 NGN Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.46 0.52 0.58 0.55 0.58 0.7 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 24.00 24 24 24 24 24 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 5.00 5 5 5 5 8 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Nigeria including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Nigeria economy. 12/10/2016