Nigeria | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.09 -11.8 1.2 7.9 2 2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 13.90 13.9 14.1 14.3 13.8 12.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 17.78 17.5 16.3 16.1 15.7 11.2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 14.00 14 14 14 14 10.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 227044.30 -10000 -23000 -20000 -41000 -17600 NGN Millions [+]
Government Debt to GDP 11.50 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 12.8 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 314.00 318 321 324 331 378 [+]
Stock Market 25267.68 24900 24700 24400 23900 20100 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 16.28 16.44 16.61 16.77 16.93 19.54 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.09 -11.8 1.2 7.9 2 2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate -1.30 -0.4 -0.1 0.8 0.5 3.5 percent [+]
GDP 481.07 377 377 377 377 690 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 18519381.66 16500000 17200000 17800000 18900000 2300000 NGN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2874594.00 2630000 2620000 2700000 2750000 3020000 NGN Million [+]
GDP per capita 2548.20 2545 2545 2545 2545 2790 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 5638.89 5635 5635 5635 5635 5800 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 4662010.12 3350000 3940000 5270000 4580000 591000 NGN Million [+]
GDP From Construction 623349.23 635903 688092 563560 605537 581356 NGN Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 1645401.74 1487118 1613956 1520000 1570000 1820000 NGN Million [+]
GDP From Mining 2041492.97 1250000 1220000 1260000 1270000 1360000 NGN Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 430861.50 373631 407994 382937 418526 406268 NGN Millions [+]
GDP From Services 6035650.62 608000 6110000 650000 7200000 7670000 NGN Millions [+]
GDP From Transport 217313.24 162000 175000 192000 223000 225000 NGN Millions [+]
GDP From Utilities 85432.68 61000 58000 62000 65000 114000 NGN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 13.90 13.9 14.1 14.3 13.8 12.4 percent [+]
Population 182.20 184 185 186 186 203 Million [+]
Unemployed Persons 11198.00 12535 13035 13485 13065 12465 Thousand [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 25.00 22.6 23.1 22.5 21.8 18.9 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 132264.00 132372 132372 132372 132372 132372 NGN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 43415.20 43415 43415 43415 43415 43415 NGN/Month [+]
Employed Persons 69470.90 68221 67680 67184 68902 74705 Thousand [+]
Employment Change 187226.00 40000 63000 74000 60000 200000 Jobs [+]
Employment Rate 86.10 86.1 85.9 85.7 86.2 87.6 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 17.78 17.5 16.3 16.1 15.7 11.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 218.90 226 239 252 260 360 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 212.34 224 237 249 258 357 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 16.00 20.2 19.5 19.7 18.9 8.2 percent [+]
Food Inflation 18.50 18.8 17.6 17.9 16.4 7.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.01 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.4 0.7 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 160.13 147 152 140 146 164 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 210.60 219 226 233 239 306 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 14.00 14 14 14 14 10.5 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 22.50 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 20 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 1978886.94 2040583 1840887 1751100 2016168 1811767 NGN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 10212647.26 10547826 10749545 10944628 11129181 13249655 NGN Million [+]
Money Supply M2 22365647.60 22712291 23325706 23788643 24242264 29481303 NGN Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 27880.00 23200 21800 21000 20000 21000 USD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 9.10 10.15 10.15 10.15 10.15 9.13 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.00 18.48 18.48 18.48 18.48 0 percent [+]
Lending Rate 16.91 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.8 16 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade 227044.30 -10000 -23000 -20000 -41000 -17600 NGN Millions [+]
Exports 985816.90 300000 285000 310000 350000 451000 NGN Millions [+]
Imports 758772.70 300000 308000 330000 391000 627000 NGN Millions [+]
Current Account -404.65 -173 1620 1489 2020 3041 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.80 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 4.4 percent [+]
Terms of Trade 81.05 77 82 95 100 107 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 673.95 528 698 755 852 1160 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows 5330.35 -3302 -7929 -4562 -2627 2945 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 21.37 21.37 21.37 21.37 21.37 21.37 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 1604.00 1520 1500 1480 1510 1620 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 9.31 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 8.9 [+]
External Debt 11406.28 11800 12100 12200 12068 13657 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 11.50 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 12.8 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.60 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -2.3 percent of GDP [+]
Government Revenues 1185.52 676 620 1336 945 1235 NGN Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 2298.40 2050 2050 2050 2050 2486 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 834480.00 1052011 1081817 1055934 968798 1163507 NGN Million [+]
Government Budget Value -159.19 -504 -891 -50.62 -784 -487 NGN Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 1344.71 1180 1264 1387 1729 1722 NGN Billion [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence -29.00 -16 -11 -9 -8 3.18 [+]
Industrial Production 0.10 -3 -2 1.5 2.2 3.5 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -3.30 0.9 1.1 1.8 1.7 3.7 percent [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 58.90 53.8 55.7 55.5 56.8 60 [+]
Services Pmi 44.50 45.5 47 48 48.8 52.75 [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 44.60 45 45.2 46 49.3 51.3 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 169.00 169 169 169 169 155 [+]
Corruption Index 28.00 29 29 29 29 28 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 136.00 138 138 138 138 133 [+]
Changes In Inventories 127424.00 135000 129000 145000 137000 161800 NGN Million [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.39 3.46 3.46 3.46 3.46 3.5 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 124.00 123 123 123 123 126 [+]
Composite Pmi 52.20 47.8 47.5 48.8 49.7 53 [+]
Capacity Utilization 50.70 51 51 52 53 59 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -29.80 -20 -22 -13 -10 3.23 [+]
Consumer Spending 12137990.85 8650000 9100000 11000000 11750000 12900000 NGN Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 17054468.00 16483073 16122255 17970299 18747218 21904999 NGN Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 22362414.43 22381872 21724982 21583278 22983034 31091401 NGN Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.48 0.58 0.55 0.58 0.6 0.7 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 24.00 24 24 24 24 24 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 5.00 5 5 5 6 8 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Nigeria including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Nigeria economy. 3/30/2017