Nigeria | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Nigeria including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Nigeria economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.09 1.2 7.9 2 -12.27 2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 13.90 14.1 14.3 13.8 8.25 12.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 17.26 16.3 16.1 15.7 15.1 11.2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 14.00 14 14 14 14 10.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 227044.30 -23000 -20000 -41000 181620 -17600 NGN Millions [+]
Government Debt to GDP 11.50 13.5 13.5 13.5 12.07 12.8 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 304.80 318 321 331 328 378 [+]
Stock Market 25767.26 25300 25000 24300 24500 20400 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 16.16 16.44 16.61 16.77 16.93 19.54 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.09 1.2 7.9 2 -12.27 2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate -1.30 1.3 0.8 0.5 1 3.5 percent [+]
GDP 486.80 377 377 377 538 690 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 18519381.66 17200000 17800000 18900000 18433162 2300000 NGN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2874594.00 2620000 2700000 2750000 2818421 3020000 NGN Million [+]
GDP per capita 2534.80 2545 2545 2545 2577 2790 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 5638.89 5635 5635 5635 5753 5800 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 4662010.12 3940000 5270000 4580000 3697431 591000 NGN Million [+]
GDP From Construction 623349.23 688092 563560 605537 594289 581356 NGN Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 1645401.74 1613956 1520000 1570000 1621826 1820000 NGN Million [+]
GDP From Mining 2041492.97 1220000 1260000 1270000 1974228 1360000 NGN Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 430861.50 407994 382937 418526 377328 406268 NGN Millions [+]
GDP From Services 6977150.10 6110000 650000 7200000 6438386 7670000 NGN Millions [+]
GDP From Transport 217313.24 175000 192000 223000 190302 225000 NGN Millions [+]
GDP From Utilities 111801.06 58000 62000 65000 95646 114000 NGN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 13.90 14.1 14.3 13.8 8.25 12.4 percent [+]
Population 182.20 185 186 186 186 203 Million [+]
Unemployed Persons 11198.00 13035 13485 13065 16534 12465 Thousand [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 25.00 23.1 22.5 21.8 35 18.9 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 132264.00 132372 132372 132372 132372 132372 NGN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 43415.20 43415 43415 43415 43415 43415 NGN/Month [+]
Employed Persons 69470.90 67680 67184 68902 71272 74705 Thousand [+]
Employment Change 187226.00 63000 74000 60000 171362 200000 Jobs [+]
Employment Rate 86.10 85.9 85.7 86.2 82.68 87.6 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 17.26 16.3 16.1 15.7 15.1 11.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 222.70 239 252 260 249 360 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 215.14 237 249 258 237 357 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 15.40 19.5 19.7 18.9 15.76 8.2 percent [+]
Food Inflation 18.44 17.6 17.9 16.4 18.89 7.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.72 1.7 1.5 1.4 0.96 0.7 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 160.13 152 140 146 170 164 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 213.02 226 233 239 235 306 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 14.00 14 14 14 14 10.5 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 22.50 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 20 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 1983633.07 1840887 1751100 1974182 1974195 1811767 NGN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 9955241.71 10249270 10401274 10542934 10684044 12219426 NGN Million [+]
Money Supply M2 22024977.97 22805447 23184570 23593095 23998586 28287526 NGN Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 30800.00 21800 21000 20000 33182 21000 USD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 7.50 10.15 10.15 10.15 8.29 8.41 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.00 18.48 18.48 18.48 0 0 percent [+]
Lending Rate 17.43 16.8 16.8 16.8 17.36 16 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 227044.30 -23000 -20000 -41000 181620 -17600 NGN Millions [+]
Exports 985816.90 285000 310000 350000 964856 451000 NGN Millions [+]
Imports 758772.70 308000 330000 391000 773812 627000 NGN Millions [+]
Current Account -404.65 1620 1489 2020 -970 3041 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.80 0.8 0.8 0.8 -0.83 4.4 percent [+]
Terms of Trade 100.23 82 95 100 98.7 107 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 673.95 698 755 852 726 1160 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows -5821.99 -7929 -4562 -2627 -486 2945 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 21.37 21.37 21.37 21.37 21.37 21.37 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 1269.00 1500 1480 1510 1351 1620 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 9.31 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.53 8.9 [+]
External Debt 11406.28 12100 12200 12068 12224 13657 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 11.50 13.5 13.5 13.5 12.07 12.8 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.60 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -1.69 -2.3 percent of GDP [+]
Government Revenues 1185.52 620 1336 945 756 1235 NGN Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 2298.40 2050 2050 2050 2322 2486 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 834480.00 1081817 1055934 968798 790936 1163507 NGN Million [+]
Government Budget Value -159.19 -891 -50.62 -784 -355 -487 NGN Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 1344.71 1264 1387 1729 1295 1722 NGN Billion [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence -29.00 -11 -9 -8 -31.62 3.18 [+]
Industrial Production 0.10 -2 1.5 2.2 1.55 3.5 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -3.30 1.1 1.8 1.7 -2.89 3.7 percent [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 54.70 55.7 55.5 56.8 57.67 60 [+]
Services Pmi 47.10 47 48 48.8 46.09 52.75 [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 47.70 45.2 46 49.3 47.3 51.3 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 169.00 169 169 169 169 155 [+]
Corruption Index 28.00 29 29 29 27 28 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 136.00 138 138 138 141 133 [+]
Changes In Inventories 127424.00 129000 145000 137000 119544 161800 NGN Million [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.39 3.46 3.46 3.46 3.32 3.5 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 124.00 123 123 123 121 126 [+]
Composite Pmi 53.00 47.5 48.8 49.7 59.96 53 [+]
Capacity Utilization 50.70 51 52 53 46.63 59 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -29.80 -22 -13 -10 -27.61 3.23 [+]
Consumer Spending 12137990.85 9100000 11000000 11750000 10467302 12900000 NGN Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 17054468.00 16122255 17970299 18747218 17105469 21904999 NGN Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 22272994.59 21724982 21583278 22983034 21926132 31091401 NGN Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.46 0.55 0.58 0.6 0.46 0.7 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 24.00 24 24 24 24 24 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 5.00 5 5 6 6 8 percent [+]