Norway | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Norway including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Norway economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.30 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.40 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 22719.43 19775 18959 18853 18858 18865 NOK Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 31.70 35.17 35.97 36.78 37.75 42.72 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 8.54 8.68 8.76 9.02 8.93 10.31 [+]
Stock Market 765.29 755 748 725 732 610 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.63 1.67 1.68 1.7 1.72 1.98 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.80 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.7 percent [+]
GDP 386.58 399 380 407 345 478 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 809776.00 811709 813782 815697 817463 835112 NOK Million [+]
Gross National Product 823091.00 792330 777019 824948 790555 819358 NOK Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 180313.00 179306 179600 180073 180092 180436 NOK Million [+]
GDP per capita 89590.80 89795 89886 89978 90051 90789 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 64272.16 64500 64607 64714 64739 65692 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 4939.00 4920 4920 4923 4916 4919 NOK Million [+]
GDP From Construction 45532.00 45892 46068 46228 46337 46745 NOK Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 49080.00 49059 49229 49060 49219 49127 NOK Million [+]
GDP From Mining 1161.00 1205 1165 1177 1168 1170 NOK Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 44155.00 44523 44679 44830 44982 46394 NOK Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 4539.00 4529 4527 4526 4527 4527 NOK Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.30 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.7 percent [+]
Employed Persons 2647.00 2640 2640 2638 2637 2629 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 97161.00 103000 96016 100000 95086 90000 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 69.80 71 70.45 71.2 69.57 72.1 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.10 1.22 1.22 1.24 1.26 1.39 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 9.90 10.1 10.06 10.07 10.07 10.07 percent [+]
Productivity 123.60 124 124 125 126 128 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 115.30 120 125 117 121 120 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 49000.00 56364 52230 50184 55697 52159 [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 152.00 159 158 156 159 168 Index Points [+]
Wage Growth 6.00 7.98 9.17 6.04 6.25 6.63 percent [+]
Population 5.21 5.24 5.25 5.26 5.26 5.43 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 67.00 67 67 67 67 67 [+]
Retirement Age Men 67.00 67 67 67 67 67 [+]
Employment Change 0.10 0.18 0.19 0.21 0.23 0.29 percent [+]
Employment Rate 73.90 74.03 74.06 74.05 74.05 74.05 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 1882.30 1878 1913 1891 1878 1898 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 649.70 662 642 647 653 648 Thousand [+]
Wages 43400.00 43972 44205 44438 44668 47476 NOK/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.40 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.4 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 105.40 105 105 105 105 105 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 105.00 106 106 107 107 113 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 104.00 104 104 104 104 104 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.70 1.38 1.21 1.08 1 0.85 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 98.02 99.04 99.27 99.43 99.52 99.65 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 229.40 236 238 240 242 257 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 16.10 20.6 18.4 16.2 14.1 3.2 percent [+]
Export Prices 139.00 140 141 142 142 142 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 131.20 131 131 132 132 132 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 3.00 2.39 2.63 2.65 2.67 2.68 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 103.80 104 105 105 106 112 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30 0.5 0.21 0.7 0.2 0.4 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.94 0.97 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 84217.00 85536 85085 85232 85222 85248 NOK Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1857474.00 1858200 1858164 1858160 1858159 1858159 NOK Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2046871.00 2065990 2081651 2097592 2113455 2281568 NOK Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 525825.00 524455 524891 524939 524950 524953 NOK Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 1626001.00 1634575 1640489 1645773 1650495 1678670 NOK Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate -0.50 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 7913297.00 8165761 8260612 8352472 8440878 9222649 NOK Millions [+]
Private Debt to GDP 278.69 279 279 278 278 273 percent [+]
Lending Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 percent [+]
Loan Growth 5.10 5.09 5.11 5.13 5.14 5.2 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 22719.43 19775 18959 18853 18858 18865 NOK Million [+]
Exports 79706.77 78075 77068 77205 77351 77321 NOK Million [+]
Imports 56987.34 52690 53260 52357 52585 52560 NOK Million [+]
Current Account 59304.00 40135 39499 47672 44978 44081 NOK Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 9.00 7.5 9.79 7.5 9.14 9.2 percent [+]
External Debt 5247666.00 5257949 5253893 5261016 5260976 5260988 NOK Million [+]
Terms of Trade 105.95 106 106 106 106 106 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 35688.00 112010 31688 72186 64802 79185 NOK Million [+]
Gold Reserves 36.70 36.76 36.76 36.76 36.76 36.76 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 1706.00 1702 1702 1702 1702 1702 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -189382.00 81910 12903 -46744 -26930 2391 NOK Million [+]
Terrorism Index 2.08 1.84 1.73 1.62 1.56 1.32 [+]
Weapons Sales 155.00 123 131 139 141 135 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 31.70 35.17 35.97 36.78 37.75 42.72 percent [+]
Government Budget 5.70 8.16 7.89 7.61 7.76 7.95 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -60215.00 -38531 -30734 -57621 -30499 -53694 NOK Million [+]
Government Spending 181956.00 183490 184279 185068 185862 194562 NOK Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 51.10 49.72 50.26 50.8 50.56 49.68 percent [+]
Government Revenues 254055.00 301221 266609 257343 276739 267102 NOK Million [+]
Government Debt 515617.00 510567 576178 506899 568248 485755 NOK Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 314270.00 341068 308226 329405 334718 371060 NOK Million [+]
Asylum Applications 395.00 1009 1051 1033 1030 1031 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 7376.80 7376 7405 7434 7442 7723 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 1.10 2.5 3.6 4.02 4.23 2.62 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 54.70 53.52 53.61 53.65 53.65 53.65 [+]
Industrial Production 1.20 1.5 -0.26 2 -0.41 2.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.50 2.1 0.01 -0.1 0.01 0.8 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -1.40 0.8 -1.52 1.8 -1.5 2.7 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 77.00 77.8 78.22 78.33 78.39 78.4 percent [+]
New Orders 106.70 108 96.26 106 96.45 106 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 38054.00 38240 38473 38100 38032 38003 NOK Million [+]
Bankruptcies 463.00 397 406 404 404 404 Companies and persons [+]
Car Registrations 12964.00 14152 14091 14097 14096 14096 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.44 5.46 5.46 5.46 5.45 5.46 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 11.00 10 10 10 13 12 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 6.00 7 6 6 6 6 [+]
Electricity Production 15311.00 11177 11453 13631 13286 12735 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 85.00 86 86 86 86 86 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 6.00 5 5 5 5 6 [+]
Steel Production 50.97 49.76 49.8 49.86 49.85 49.85 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 20.40 10.21 8.06 7.34 7.05 6.86 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 5.20 1.2 -1 -2.6 -2.1 0 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.10 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.08 0.9 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.50 5.1 1.38 0.5 1.38 1.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 335409.00 338323 339971 341535 343122 360265 NOK Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 347777.00 353722 354588 359508 360668 395054 NOK Million [+]
Personal Savings 7.70 8.8 7.26 9.2 7.07 8.4 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 3091093.00 3147147 3189874 3232477 3274951 3733494 NOK Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.74 1.82 1.78 1.79 1.8 1.79 USD/Liter [+]
Household Spending 0.90 1.2 0.18 2 0.18 2.1 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 101.10 106 107 108 108 112 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 189.35 192 192 193 193 206 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 199.30 199 199 199 199 199 Index Points [+]
Building Permits 2608.00 2909 2964 2911 2909 2916 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 82.80 83.83 83.7 83.57 83.64 83.93 percent [+]
New Home Sales 35833.00 35995 36158 36243 36293 36362 [+]
Housing Starts 3141.00 3178 3172 3171 3171 3171 [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 24.00 24.99 24.99 24.99 23.98 23.98 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 38.70 38.84 38.74 38.65 38.62 38.53 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 22.30 22.74 22.5 22.25 22.26 22.44 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 14.10 14.2 14.07 13.94 13.97 14.31 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.20 8.28 8.28 8.28 8.29 8.39 percent [+]