Tuesday December 06 2016
Philippines Inflation Rate at-21 Month High of 2.5%
Statistic of Philippines l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Consumer prices in Philippines rose 2.5 percent year-on-year in November 2016, following a 2.3 percent increase in October and above market expectations of 2.2 percent. It was the highest inflation rate since February 2015, as prices increased at a faster pace for housing and utilities and transport. Core inflation rate rose to 2.4 percent, compared to 2.3 percent in the prior month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.6 percent, the biggest growth since July 2014.

Cost rose at a faster pace for: housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (+1.3 percent from + 0.9 percent); transport (+0.5 percent from +0.2 percent) and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (+6.5 percent from +6.1 percent).

Inflation was steady for: furnishing households equipment and routine maintenance (+2.4 percent); health (+2.6); communication (+0.1 percent) and education (+1.8 percent).

Prices increased at a slower pace for: heavily-weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.3 percent from +3.4 percent); clothing and footwear (+2.6 percent from +2.8 percent); recreation and culture (+1.6 percent from +1.8 percent) and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services (+2.1 percent from +2.4 percent). 

Core consumer prices went up 2.4 percent from a year earlier, faster than a 2.3 percent rise in the prior month. It was the highest inflation rate since April 2015.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices jumped 0.6 percent, after a 0.2 percent gain in October. It was the highest monthly inflation rate since July 2014 driven by: food and non-alcoholic beverages (+0.1 percent); alcoholic beverages and tobacco (+1.3 percent); clothing and footwear (+1.3 percent); housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (+0.4 percent); furnishing, households equipment and routine maintenance (+0.1 percent); health (+0.1 percent); transport (+0.2 percent); recreation and culture (+0.1 percent) and education (+0.1 percent). 




Thursday November 17 2016
Philippines Economy Expands 1.2% QoQ in Q3
PSA l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

The Philippines GDP advanced 1.2 percent quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September, slowing from an upwardly revised 2.1 percent expansion in the June quarter while market expected a 1.1 percent growth. It was the weakest growth since the March quarter 2015, as a faster increase in the agriculture and the industry sectors were not sufficient to offset a sharp slowdown in the services sector.

Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing grew by 2.3  percent, accelerating from a 1.2 percent increase in the June quarter. The industry sector rose 1.8 percent, faster than a 1.5  percent expansion in the previous three months. The services sector expanded 0.6  percent, following a 2.4 percent growth in the second  quarter and reaching the weakest growth since the December quarter of 2010.

Year-on-year, the economy grew an annual 7.1 percent in the third quarter of 2016, following a 7.0 percent expansion in the second quarter and beating market consensus of a 6.7 percent growth. It was the fastest expansion since the June quarter 2013.




Thursday November 17 2016
Philippines GDP Growth Beats Expectations in Q3
PSA l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The Philippines economy grew an annual 7.1 percent in the September quarter of 2016, following a 7.0 percent expansion in the second quarter and beating market consensus of a 6.7 percent growth. It was the strongest expansion since the June quarter 2013, mainly supported by strong private consumption while government spending, investment and exports eased.

In the three months to September, household consumption expanded 7.3 percent year-on-year, compared to a 7.4 percent increase in the second quarter. Government expenditure advanced 3.1 percent, easing  significantly from a 13.5 percent growth in the previous three months, as programs and projects were evaluated relative to the plans and policies of the new administration of President Rodrigo Duterte, who began a six-year term at the end of June. Gross domestic capital formation increased by 20.0 percent, compared to a 25.0 percent growth in the previous quarter, supported by construction: +16.8 percent, durable equipment: +29.6 percent, breeding stocks & orchard development:+3.4 percent and intellectual property products:+29.2 percent.

Exports grew by 8.8 percent, slower than a 10.0 percent rise in the June quarter. While sales of goods rose 7.8 percent (from +7.2 percent in the second quarter), those of  services went up 14.2 percent (from +19.5 percent). Imports increased by 14.2 percent, following a 23.3 percent in the preceding quarter.

On the production side, the services sector advanced by 6.9 percent, compared to a 8.3 percent growth in the second quarter and accounted for a 49.1 percent of the total economy. Growth in the sector was supported by real estate (+8.8 percent), financial intermediation (+8.1 percent), other services (+7.0 percent), trade and repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles, personal and household goods (+6.5 percent), transport, storage & communication (+4.9 percent) and public administration & defense; compulsory social security (+3.7 percent). The industry sector expanded 8.6 percent, following a 7.1 percent growth in the preceding quarter. Construction recorded the highest increase (+15.5 percent), followed by electricity, gas and water supply (+9.5 percent) and manufacturing (+6.9 percent). In contrast, mining & quarrying shrank by 0.4 percent, following a 7.1 percent rise in the June quarter. Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing grew by 2.9 percent, rebounding from a 2.0 percent contraction in the previous period. 

For the first nine months of 2016, the economy expanded 7.0 percent, faster than a 5.7 percent growth in the same period a year earlier.

For 2016, the economy is expected to grow between 6.0 to 7.0 percent.

On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, the GDP advanced 1.2 percent, slowing from an upwardly revised 2.1 percent expansion in the three months to June but slightly higher than estimates of a 1.1 percent growth. 




Thursday November 10 2016
Philippines Leaves Rates on Hold; Raises Inflation Forecasts
Bangko Sentral NG Pilipinas | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

The central bank of Philippines kept its benchmark overnight borrowing rate unchanged at 3 percent on November 10th 2016 as widely expected. The interest rates on short-term special deposit accounts (SDA) and overnight repo rate were also kept steady at 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively. Policymakers said inflation continues to be manageable although upside risks arise. As a result, inflation forecasts were raised to 1.8 percent from 1.7 percent for this year. Estimates for 2017 were also increased by 10bps to 3 percent and by 30bps to 2.9 percent in 2018.

Statement by the Bangko Sentral NG Pilipinas:

The Monetary Board’s decision is based on its assessment that inflation continues to be manageable, with a gradual return to the inflation target range expected over the policy horizon. While latest forecasts indicate that average inflation is likely to settle slightly below the lower edge of the 3.0 percent ± 1.0 percentage point target range in 2016, it is projected to rise toward the mid-point of the target range in 2017 and 2018. The overall balance of risks surrounding the inflation outlook remains tilted to the upside owing largely to the pending petitions for adjustments in electricity rates along with the proposed tax policy reform program. Slower global economic activity continues to be a key downside risk. Meanwhile, inflation expectations remain broadly consistent with the inflation target over the policy horizon.

At the same time, the Monetary Board also observed that prospects for global economic growth remain modest and uneven since the previous meeting. Moreover, monetary policies in major advanced economies continue to be asynchronous and the prospects uncertain. On the other hand, domestic economic activity is seen to remain firm, supported by solid private household consumption and investment, buoyant business and consumer sentiment, and adequate credit and domestic liquidity. Higher fiscal spending is also expected to further boost domestic demand in the near term.

On balance, the assessment of recent new information continues to support keeping monetary policy settings unchanged. Going forward, the BSP will continue to monitor emerging price and output conditions to ensure price and financial stability conducive to sustained economic growth.




Thursday November 10 2016
Philippines Trade Gap Narrows to 6-Month Low in September
Statistic of Philippines l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Philippines reported a trade deficit of USD 1.89 billion in September of 2016, compared to a USD 1.30 billion gap a year earlier. It was the smallest trade gap since March, mainly due to a rebound in exports.

In September, sales rise 5.1 percent year-on-year to USD 5.21 billion, following a 3.0 percent fall in August. It was the first growth  since March 2015, mainly driven by other mineral products (+97.5 percent), electronic equipment (+66.3 percent) and metal components (+18.2 percent). Sales of electronic products, the country's top export revenues, also went up 3.6 percent. In contrast, exports fell for: woodcrafts and furniture (-7.1 percent) and macchinery and transport equipment (-3.0 percent). 

Outbound shipments to Japan, the country's top export destination, rose 2.9 percent to USD 1.12 billion. Those to China also increased by 32.8 percent to USD 633.36 million, followed by the US (+1.5 percent to USD 737.30 million), the ASEAN countries (+13.1 percent to USD 748.63 million) and the EU countries (+17.4 percent to USD 690.62 million). In contrast, exports fell to Hong Kong (-6.5 percent to USD 590.94 million).

Imports rose 13.5 percent to USD 7.10 billion, compared to a 12.2 percent rise in the preceding month. It was the highest rise since June, as purchases rose for most categories, including: cereals and cereal preparations (+61.8 percent), iron and steel (+56.1 percent), plastics in primary and non-primary forms (+51.8 percent) and other food and live animals (+44.8 percent). In contrast, imports of electronic products fell 10.1 percent. Purchases increased from: China (+52.3 percent to USD 1.40 billion), Japan (+28.5 percent to USD 857.53 million) and the ASEAN countries (+25.8 percent to USD 1.91 billion). In contrast, imports declined from the US (-8.2 percent to USD 644.92 million) and the EU countries (-19.9 percent to USD 505.12 million).

In August 2016, trade deficit was marginally revised at USD 1.95 billion.

From January to September 2016, exports shrank 6.2 percent from the same period a year earlier to USD 41.70 billion while imports grew by 14.0 percent to USD 52.19 billion. That brought the trade deficit during the period at USD 17.81 billion, widening from a USD 7.73 billion gap in the prior year.
 
 
 
 




Friday November 04 2016
Philippines Inflation Rates Steady at 2.3% in October
Statistic of Philippinesl | chusnul Ch Manan@tradingeconomics.com

Consumer prices in Philippines rose 2.3 percent year-on-year in October 2016, the same pace as in September while market expected a 2.4 percent rise. Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased at a faster pace while inflation of housing and utilities were steady.

Year-on-year, prices of heavily-weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 3.4 percent (from + 3.1 percent rise in September). Cost also went up for: alcoholic beverages and tobacco (+6.1 percent from +6.2 percent), clothing and footwear (+2.8 percent from +2.7 percent); furnishing, households equipment and routine maintenance (+2.4 percent from +2.3 percent), health (+2.6 from +2.7 percent), transport (+0.2 percent from +0.2 percent), communication (+0.1 percent from +0.1 percent), recreation and culture (+1.8 percent from +1.7 percent), education (+1.8 percent from +1.8 percent) and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services (+2.4 percent from +2.4 percent). Inflation was steady for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (+0.9 percent).

Core consumer prices also rose 2.3 percent from a year earlier, similar to the previous month's figure. 

On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2 percent, the same as in September. Prices were higher for: food and non-alcoholic beverages (+0.4 percent), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (+0.1 percent), clothing and footwear (+0.2 percent), housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (+0.1 percent); furnishing, households equipment and routine maintenance (+0.1 percent), health (+0.1 percent), transport (+0.2 percent), recreation and culture (+0.1 percent) and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services (+0.1 percent). Cost remained unchanged for communication and education.



Tuesday October 11 2016
Philippines Trade Deficit Widens in August
PSA l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

Philippines reported a trade deficit of USD 2.02 billion in August of 2016, compared to a USD 1.05 billion gap a year earlier as exports fell while imports rose.

Year-on-year, sales declined by 4.4 percent to USD 4.90 billion, following a 13.0 percent fall in July. It was the 17th straight month of decline, driven by machinery and transport equipment (-52.5 percent), metal components (-25.9 percent), chemicals (-16.2 percent), articles of apparel and clothing accessories (-11.3 percent), other manufactures (-9.3 percent), woodcrafts and furniture (-8.8 percent) and coconut oils (-6.9 percent). In contrast, exports went up for: ignition wiring set and other wiring sets used in vehicles, aircrafts and ships (+12.9 percent) and other mineral products (+2.3 percent). Sales of electronic products, the country's top export revenues, also increased by 11.6 percent.

Sales to Japan, the country's top export destination fell by 5.1 percent. Those to the US also dropped by 4.7 percent, followed by Singapore (-3.1 percent), the ASEAN countries (-4.9 percent) and the EU countries (-9.4 percent). In contrast, exports rose to China (+2.2 percent) and Hong Kong (+22.4 percent).

Imports increased by 12.2 percent to USD 6.93 billion, following a 1.7 percent drop in the preceding month. Purchases increased from all of the country's main trading partners: China (+28.0 percent to USD 1.30 billion), Japan (+24.1 percent to USD 807.84 mi llion), the US (+0.4 percent to USD 636.01 million), the ASEAN countries (+11.7 percent to USD 3.22 billion and the EU countries (+4.2 percent to USD 509.16 million).

In July 2016, trade deficit stood at USD 2.05 billion.


Wednesday October 05 2016
Philippines Inflation Rate at 18-Month High of 2.3%
PSA l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

Consumer prices in Philippines rose 2.3 percent year-on-year in September of 2016, following a 1.8 percent increase in August while market expected a 2.1 percent rise. It was the highest inflation rate since March 2015, driven by a faster increase in prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages and housing and utilities.

Year-on-year, prices of heavily-weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 3.1 percent (from + 2.4 percent rise in August). Cost also went up for: alcoholic beverages and tobacco (+6.2 percent from +6.0 percent), clothing and footwear (+2.7 percent from +2.6 percent); housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (+0.9 percent from +0.2 percent); furnishing, households equipment and routine maintenance (+2.3 percent from +2.2 percent), health (+2.7 from +2.7 percent), transport (+0.2 percent from +0.1 percent), communication (+0.1 percent from +0.1 percent), recreation and culture (+1.7 percent from +1.7 percent), education (+1.8 percent from +1.8 percent) and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services (+2.4 percent from +2.4 percent). 

Core consumer prices also rose 2.3 percent from a year earlier, compared to 2.0 percent in the preceding month. It was the highest figure since April 2015.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2 percent, after gaining 0.1 percent in August. It was the highest reading since June as prices went up for most components: food and non-alcoholic beverages (+0.4 percent), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (+0.3 percent), clothing and footwear (+0.1 percent); furnishing, households equipment and routine maintenance (+0.1 percent), health (+0.1 percent), transport (+0.2 percent), recreation and culture (+0.1 percent) and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services (+0.1 percent). Cost remained unchanged for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, communication and education.


Thursday September 22 2016
Philippines Holds Key Rate at 3%
Bangko Sentral NG Pilipinas | Yekaterina Guchshina | yekaterina@tradingeconomics.com

The central bank of Philippines kept its benchmark overnight borrowing rate unchanged at 3 percent on September 22nd, 2016, as widely expected. The interest rates on short-term special deposit accounts (SDA) and overnight repo rate were also kept steady at 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively. Policymakers said trends in domestic economic activity show sustained firmness, supported by solid private household consumption and investment, buoyant business and consumer sentiment, and adequate credit and domestic liquidity. Also, inflation is expected to settle slightly below the 3.0 percent ± 1.0 percentage point target range in 2016 and rise toward the mid-point of the target range in 2017 and 2018.

Statement by the Bangko Sentral NG Pilipinas:

The Monetary Board’s decision is based on its assessment that the inflation environment remains manageable. Latest forecasts continue to indicate that average inflation is likely to settle slightly below the 3.0 percent ± 1.0 percentage point target range in 2016 and rise toward the mid-point of the target range in 2017 and 2018. The Monetary Board observed that inflation is still being driven mainly by supply-side factors. Nevertheless, inflation expectations remain broadly in line with the inflation target over the policy horizon. The Monetary Board also recognized that while global economic conditions have remained subdued since the previous meeting, trends in domestic economic activity show sustained firmness, supported by solid private household consumption and investment, buoyant business and consumer sentiment, and adequate credit and domestic liquidity. Given the fiscal space, higher public spending is also expected to further boost domestic demand.

At the same time, the overall balance of risks surrounding the inflation outlook appears tilted to the upside, with pending petitions for adjustments in electricity rates along with the proposed adjustment in the excise tax rates of petroleum products and the potential second-round effect on transport fares. Slower global economic activity poses the main downside risk.

With these considerations, the Monetary Board believes that current monetary policy settings remain appropriate. At the same time, increased uncertainty over prospects for growth and monetary policy action in major advanced economies warrants prudence in policy settings. Going forward, the BSP will continue to monitor emerging price and output conditions to ensure price and financial stability conducive to sustained economic growth.


Friday September 09 2016
Philippines Trade Deficit Widens in July
PSA l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

Philippines reported a trade deficit of USD 2.05 billion in July of 2016, compared to a USD 1.52 billion gap a year earlier as exports fell much more than imports.

Year-on-year, sales declined by 13.0 percent to USD 4.67 billion, following a 11.4 percent fall in June. It was the 16th straight month of decline and the largest drop since March as sales were lower for most categories: machinery and transport equipment (-36.8 percent), woodcraft (-24.2 percent), other mineral products (-18.9 percent) and chemicals (-18.7 percent). Exports of electronic products, the country's top export revenues, also decreased by 14.8 percent. In contrast, outbound shipments rose for: coconut oil (+42.6 percent) and other manufactures (+7.7 percent). 

Sales fell to all of the country's main trading partners: Japan (-14.4 percent), the US (-4.2 percent), China (-6.5 percent), Hong Kong (-9.9 percent), ASEAN countries (-25.9 percent) and the EU countries (-6.1 percent).

Imports declined by 1.7 percent to USD 6.73 billion, following a 15.4 percent growth in the preceding month. It was he first drop since December. Purchases were lower for: mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (-26.3 percent), electronic products (-8.1 percent) and iron and steel (-5.7 percent). In contrast, inbound shipments rose for: power generating and specialised machinery (+28.7 percent), plastics in primary and non-primary forms (+25.5 percent), miscellaneous manufactured articles (+22.0 percent), transport equipment (+15.4 percent), other food and live animals (+12.1 percent), industrial machinery and equipment (+10.1 percent) and telecommunication equipment and electrical machinery (+7.5 percent).

Purchases fell from the US (-24.5 percent to USD 571.46 million), followed by the ASEAN countries (+1.7 percent to USD 1.64 billion) and South Korea. In contrast, imports from China, the biggest source of purchases for Philippines, rose  11.2 percent to USD 1.28 billion. Those from Japan also increased by 24.8 percent to USD 824.97 million), followed by Thailand (+16.1 percent to USD 514.38 million) and the EU countries (-21.1 percent to USD 494.91 million).

In June 2016, trade deficit stood at USD 2.10 billion.