Tuesday January 10 2017
Philippines Trade Gap Widens to 10-Month High
Statistics of Phillippines l Chusnul Ch Manan| chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Philippines reported a trade deficit of USD 2.57 billion in November of 2016, compared to a USD 0.98 billion gap a year earlier. It was the largest trade gap since January, as exports fell while imports rose.

In November, sales decreased 7.5 percent from a year ago to USD 4.73 billion following a 3.7 percent rise in October. It was the first drop in three months, as sales declined for: woodcrafts and furniture (-28.9 percent), machinery and transport equipment (-25.4 percent), chemicals (-26.2 percent), ignition wiring set and other wiring sets used in vehicles, aircrafts and ships (-25.6 percent), machinery and transport equipment (-25.4 percent), articles of apparel and clothing accessories (-7.6 percent), and metal components (-2.0 percent). Sales of electronic products, the country's top export revenues, also fell 7.9 percent. In contrast, sales rose for: coconut oil (+44 percent), other mineral products (+39 percent), and other manufactures (+3 percent).  Outbound shipments fell to the US (-13.5 percent), Singapore (-8.6 percent) and the ASEAN countries (-1.3 percent). Those to Japan, the country's top export destination also dropped by 21.8 percent. In contrast, sales went up to China (+5.2 percent) and Hong Kong (+4.7 percent).

Imports jumped 19.7 percent to USD 7.30 billion in November of 2016, compared to a 5.9 percent rise in the preceding month. It was the fastest growth in six months, as purchases rose for most categories : iron and steel (+100 pecent), transport equipment (+76.3 percent), industrial machinery and equipment (+52.2 percent),  miscellaneous manufactured articles (+51.6 percent), plastics in primary and non-primary forms (+50.3 percent), telecommunication equipment and electrical machinery (+32.3 percent), and other food and live animal (+27.3 percent). In contrast, imports of electronic products fell 7 percent. Purchases increased from: China (+20.3 percent), Japan (+15.1 percent), Thailand (+22.1 percent), the ASEAN countries (+31 percent) and the EU countries (+26.1 percent). In contrast, imports declined from the US (-4.2 percent).

From January to November 2016, exports shrank 5.2 percent from the same period a year earlier to USD 51.36 billion while imports went up 13.7 percent to USD 73.72 billion. That brought the trade deficit during the period to USD 22.36 billion, widening sharply from a USD 10.65 billion gap in the prior year.

In October 2016, trade deficit was recorded at  USD 2.16 billion.
 






Thursday January 05 2017
Philippines Inflation Rate at 2-Year High of 2.6%
Statistics of Philippines l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Consumer prices in Philippines rose 2.6 percent year-on-year in December 2016, following a 2.5 percent increase in November. It was the highest inflation rate since December 2014, mainly driven by a faster increase in prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages and transport while inflation was steady for housing.

Cost rose at a faster pace for: food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.6 percent from +3.3 percent in November), transport (+1.9 percent  from +0.5 percent), and recreation and culture (+1.7 percent from +1.6 percent). Price increased at a slower pace for: alcoholic beverages and tobacco (+6.3 percent from +6.5 percent), clothing and footwear (+2.5  percent from +2.6 percent), furnishing households equipment and routine maintenance (+2.4 percent); and health (+2.5 percent from +2.6). Cost was steady for: housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (+1.3 percent); communication (+0.1 percent); education (+1.8 percent), and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services (+2.1 percent). 
 
Core consumer prices went up 2.5 percent from a year earlier, slightly up from a 2.4 percent rise in the prior month. It was the highest figure since March 2015.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.3 percent, slowing from a 0.6 percent gain in November. Prices rose for: food and non-alcoholic beverages (+0.2 percent); alcoholic beverages and tobacco (+0.6 percent); clothing and footwear (+0.1 percent); housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (+0.3 percent); furnishing, households equipment and routine maintenance (+0.1 percent); health (+0.1 percent); transport (+2.3 percent); recreation and culture (+0.2 percent), education (0 percent), and restaurant and miscelleneous goods and services (+0.2 percent).
 
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Thursday December 22 2016
Philippines Holds Key Rate Steady at 3% in December
Bangko Sentral NG Pilipinas | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

The central bank of Philippines kept its benchmark overnight borrowing rate unchanged at 3 percent on December 22nd, 2016 as widely expected. The interest rate on short-term special deposit accounts (SDA) and the overnight repo rate were also kept steady at 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively. The central bank said inflation was expected to remain within its comfort range of 2 percent to 4 percent in 2017 and 2018.

Statement by the Bangko Sentral NG Pilipinas:
 
The Monetary Board’s decision is based on its assessment of inflation dynamics and the risks to the inflation outlook over the policy horizon. Latest baseline forecasts indicate that average inflation would likely settle below the target range of 3.0 percent ± 1 percentage point for 2016. However, inflation is seen to return gradually to a path consistent with the inflation target in  2017-2018 due to higher oil prices and strong domestic economic activity. The overall balance of risks surrounding the inflation outlook also remains tilted to the upside, owing partly to the pending petitions for adjustments in electricity rates as well as the initial impact of the government’s broad fiscal reform program. Increased uncertainty in global economic prospects, meanwhile, continues to pose a key downside risk to the inflation outlook. Nevertheless, inflation expectations remain broadly consistent with the inflation target over the policy horizon.
 
The Monetary Board also stressed that domestic demand conditions are likely to stay firm, supported by solid private household spending, higher government expenditure, and adequate domestic liquidity. In addition, the Monetary Board has considered the potential impact of the ongoing monetary policy adjustment in the US on global financial market conditions. The Monetary Board also noted that maintaining monetary policy settings at this juncture will give the BSP more time to assess evolving economic developments and calibrate its policy tools as appropriate.
 
With these considerations, the Monetary Board believes that prevailing monetary policy settings remain appropriate. Going forward, the BSP will continue to monitor emerging price and output conditions to ensure price and financial stability conducive to sustained economic growth.




Friday December 09 2016
Philippines Trade Deficit Largest in 6 Months in October
Statistics of Philippines l Chusnul Ch Manan| chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Philippines reported a trade deficit of USD 2.16 billion in October of 2016, compared to a USD 1.94 billion gap a year earlier. It was the largest trade gap since April, as exports grew less than imports.

In October, sales rise a 3.7 percent year on-year  to USD 4.76 billion following a 5.1 percent rise in September. It was the second straight month of growth, driven by coconut oil (+60.4 percent), metal components (+55.6 percent) and other mineral products (+23.9 percent). Sales of electronic products, the country's top export revenues, also went up 4.7 percent. In contrast, exports fell for: woodcrafts and furniture (-14.7 percent), machinery and transport equipment (-9.2 percent) and other manufactures (-7.8 percent). Outbound shipments to the US rose 8.9 percent. Those to China also increased by 34.1 percent, followed by Hong Kong (+9.1 percent to USD 541.57 million) and the ASEAN countries (+0.6 percent). In contrast, exports fell to the EU countries (-12.6 percent) and Singapore (-6.0 percent). Outbound shipments to Japan, the country's top export destination also dropped by 5.0 percent.

Imports  rose 5.9 percent year-on-year to USD 6.92 billion in October of 2016, compared to a 13.5 percent rise in the preceding month. Purchases rose for most categories, including: transport equipment (+55.0 percent), iron and steel (+33.6 percent) and miscellaneous manufactured articles (+26.8 percent). In contrast, imports of electronic products fell 17.2 percent, followed by telecommunication equipment and electrical machinery (-2.8 percent) and cereals and cereal preparations (-2.3 percent). Purchases increased from: China (+9.7 percent), Japan (+19.0 percent), Thailand (+4.3 percent), the ASEAN countries (+5.9 percent) and the EU countries (+12.0 percent). In contrast, imports declined from the US (-1.5 percent).

In September 2016, balance trade recorded deficit of 1.89 billion USD.


Tuesday December 06 2016
Philippines Inflation Rate at-21 Month High of 2.5%
Statistic of Philippines l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Consumer prices in Philippines rose 2.5 percent year-on-year in November 2016, following a 2.3 percent increase in October and above market expectations of 2.2 percent. It was the highest inflation rate since February 2015, as prices increased at a faster pace for housing and utilities and transport. Core inflation rate rose to 2.4 percent, compared to 2.3 percent in the prior month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.6 percent, the biggest growth since July 2014.

Cost rose at a faster pace for: housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (+1.3 percent from + 0.9 percent); transport (+0.5 percent from +0.2 percent) and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (+6.5 percent from +6.1 percent).

Inflation was steady for: furnishing households equipment and routine maintenance (+2.4 percent); health (+2.6); communication (+0.1 percent) and education (+1.8 percent).

Prices increased at a slower pace for: heavily-weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.3 percent from +3.4 percent); clothing and footwear (+2.6 percent from +2.8 percent); recreation and culture (+1.6 percent from +1.8 percent) and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services (+2.1 percent from +2.4 percent). 

Core consumer prices went up 2.4 percent from a year earlier, faster than a 2.3 percent rise in the prior month. It was the highest inflation rate since April 2015.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices jumped 0.6 percent, after a 0.2 percent gain in October. It was the highest monthly inflation rate since July 2014 driven by: food and non-alcoholic beverages (+0.1 percent); alcoholic beverages and tobacco (+1.3 percent); clothing and footwear (+1.3 percent); housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (+0.4 percent); furnishing, households equipment and routine maintenance (+0.1 percent); health (+0.1 percent); transport (+0.2 percent); recreation and culture (+0.1 percent) and education (+0.1 percent). 


Thursday November 17 2016
Philippines Economy Expands 1.2% QoQ in Q3
PSA l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

The Philippines GDP advanced 1.2 percent quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September, slowing from an upwardly revised 2.1 percent expansion in the June quarter while market expected a 1.1 percent growth. It was the weakest growth since the March quarter 2015, as a faster increase in the agriculture and the industry sectors were not sufficient to offset a sharp slowdown in the services sector.

Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing grew by 2.3  percent, accelerating from a 1.2 percent increase in the June quarter. The industry sector rose 1.8 percent, faster than a 1.5  percent expansion in the previous three months. The services sector expanded 0.6  percent, following a 2.4 percent growth in the second  quarter and reaching the weakest growth since the December quarter of 2010.

Year-on-year, the economy grew an annual 7.1 percent in the third quarter of 2016, following a 7.0 percent expansion in the second quarter and beating market consensus of a 6.7 percent growth. It was the fastest expansion since the June quarter 2013.




Thursday November 17 2016
Philippines GDP Growth Beats Expectations in Q3
PSA l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The Philippines economy grew an annual 7.1 percent in the September quarter of 2016, following a 7.0 percent expansion in the second quarter and beating market consensus of a 6.7 percent growth. It was the strongest expansion since the June quarter 2013, mainly supported by strong private consumption while government spending, investment and exports eased.

In the three months to September, household consumption expanded 7.3 percent year-on-year, compared to a 7.4 percent increase in the second quarter. Government expenditure advanced 3.1 percent, easing  significantly from a 13.5 percent growth in the previous three months, as programs and projects were evaluated relative to the plans and policies of the new administration of President Rodrigo Duterte, who began a six-year term at the end of June. Gross domestic capital formation increased by 20.0 percent, compared to a 25.0 percent growth in the previous quarter, supported by construction: +16.8 percent, durable equipment: +29.6 percent, breeding stocks & orchard development:+3.4 percent and intellectual property products:+29.2 percent.

Exports grew by 8.8 percent, slower than a 10.0 percent rise in the June quarter. While sales of goods rose 7.8 percent (from +7.2 percent in the second quarter), those of  services went up 14.2 percent (from +19.5 percent). Imports increased by 14.2 percent, following a 23.3 percent in the preceding quarter.

On the production side, the services sector advanced by 6.9 percent, compared to a 8.3 percent growth in the second quarter and accounted for a 49.1 percent of the total economy. Growth in the sector was supported by real estate (+8.8 percent), financial intermediation (+8.1 percent), other services (+7.0 percent), trade and repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles, personal and household goods (+6.5 percent), transport, storage & communication (+4.9 percent) and public administration & defense; compulsory social security (+3.7 percent). The industry sector expanded 8.6 percent, following a 7.1 percent growth in the preceding quarter. Construction recorded the highest increase (+15.5 percent), followed by electricity, gas and water supply (+9.5 percent) and manufacturing (+6.9 percent). In contrast, mining & quarrying shrank by 0.4 percent, following a 7.1 percent rise in the June quarter. Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing grew by 2.9 percent, rebounding from a 2.0 percent contraction in the previous period. 

For the first nine months of 2016, the economy expanded 7.0 percent, faster than a 5.7 percent growth in the same period a year earlier.

For 2016, the economy is expected to grow between 6.0 to 7.0 percent.

On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, the GDP advanced 1.2 percent, slowing from an upwardly revised 2.1 percent expansion in the three months to June but slightly higher than estimates of a 1.1 percent growth. 




Thursday November 10 2016
Philippines Leaves Rates on Hold; Raises Inflation Forecasts
Bangko Sentral NG Pilipinas | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

The central bank of Philippines kept its benchmark overnight borrowing rate unchanged at 3 percent on November 10th 2016 as widely expected. The interest rates on short-term special deposit accounts (SDA) and overnight repo rate were also kept steady at 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively. Policymakers said inflation continues to be manageable although upside risks arise. As a result, inflation forecasts were raised to 1.8 percent from 1.7 percent for this year. Estimates for 2017 were also increased by 10bps to 3 percent and by 30bps to 2.9 percent in 2018.

Statement by the Bangko Sentral NG Pilipinas:

The Monetary Board’s decision is based on its assessment that inflation continues to be manageable, with a gradual return to the inflation target range expected over the policy horizon. While latest forecasts indicate that average inflation is likely to settle slightly below the lower edge of the 3.0 percent ± 1.0 percentage point target range in 2016, it is projected to rise toward the mid-point of the target range in 2017 and 2018. The overall balance of risks surrounding the inflation outlook remains tilted to the upside owing largely to the pending petitions for adjustments in electricity rates along with the proposed tax policy reform program. Slower global economic activity continues to be a key downside risk. Meanwhile, inflation expectations remain broadly consistent with the inflation target over the policy horizon.

At the same time, the Monetary Board also observed that prospects for global economic growth remain modest and uneven since the previous meeting. Moreover, monetary policies in major advanced economies continue to be asynchronous and the prospects uncertain. On the other hand, domestic economic activity is seen to remain firm, supported by solid private household consumption and investment, buoyant business and consumer sentiment, and adequate credit and domestic liquidity. Higher fiscal spending is also expected to further boost domestic demand in the near term.

On balance, the assessment of recent new information continues to support keeping monetary policy settings unchanged. Going forward, the BSP will continue to monitor emerging price and output conditions to ensure price and financial stability conducive to sustained economic growth.


Thursday November 10 2016
Philippines Trade Gap Narrows to 6-Month Low in September
Statistic of Philippines l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Philippines reported a trade deficit of USD 1.89 billion in September of 2016, compared to a USD 1.30 billion gap a year earlier. It was the smallest trade gap since March, mainly due to a rebound in exports.

In September, sales rise 5.1 percent year-on-year to USD 5.21 billion, following a 3.0 percent fall in August. It was the first growth  since March 2015, mainly driven by other mineral products (+97.5 percent), electronic equipment (+66.3 percent) and metal components (+18.2 percent). Sales of electronic products, the country's top export revenues, also went up 3.6 percent. In contrast, exports fell for: woodcrafts and furniture (-7.1 percent) and macchinery and transport equipment (-3.0 percent). 

Outbound shipments to Japan, the country's top export destination, rose 2.9 percent to USD 1.12 billion. Those to China also increased by 32.8 percent to USD 633.36 million, followed by the US (+1.5 percent to USD 737.30 million), the ASEAN countries (+13.1 percent to USD 748.63 million) and the EU countries (+17.4 percent to USD 690.62 million). In contrast, exports fell to Hong Kong (-6.5 percent to USD 590.94 million).

Imports rose 13.5 percent to USD 7.10 billion, compared to a 12.2 percent rise in the preceding month. It was the highest rise since June, as purchases rose for most categories, including: cereals and cereal preparations (+61.8 percent), iron and steel (+56.1 percent), plastics in primary and non-primary forms (+51.8 percent) and other food and live animals (+44.8 percent). In contrast, imports of electronic products fell 10.1 percent. Purchases increased from: China (+52.3 percent to USD 1.40 billion), Japan (+28.5 percent to USD 857.53 million) and the ASEAN countries (+25.8 percent to USD 1.91 billion). In contrast, imports declined from the US (-8.2 percent to USD 644.92 million) and the EU countries (-19.9 percent to USD 505.12 million).

In August 2016, trade deficit was marginally revised at USD 1.95 billion.

From January to September 2016, exports shrank 6.2 percent from the same period a year earlier to USD 41.70 billion while imports grew by 14.0 percent to USD 52.19 billion. That brought the trade deficit during the period at USD 17.81 billion, widening from a USD 7.73 billion gap in the prior year.
 
 
 
 


Friday November 04 2016
Philippines Inflation Rates Steady at 2.3% in October
Statistic of Philippinesl | chusnul Ch Manan@tradingeconomics.com

Consumer prices in Philippines rose 2.3 percent year-on-year in October 2016, the same pace as in September while market expected a 2.4 percent rise. Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased at a faster pace while inflation of housing and utilities were steady.

Year-on-year, prices of heavily-weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 3.4 percent (from + 3.1 percent rise in September). Cost also went up for: alcoholic beverages and tobacco (+6.1 percent from +6.2 percent), clothing and footwear (+2.8 percent from +2.7 percent); furnishing, households equipment and routine maintenance (+2.4 percent from +2.3 percent), health (+2.6 from +2.7 percent), transport (+0.2 percent from +0.2 percent), communication (+0.1 percent from +0.1 percent), recreation and culture (+1.8 percent from +1.7 percent), education (+1.8 percent from +1.8 percent) and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services (+2.4 percent from +2.4 percent). Inflation was steady for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (+0.9 percent).

Core consumer prices also rose 2.3 percent from a year earlier, similar to the previous month's figure. 

On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2 percent, the same as in September. Prices were higher for: food and non-alcoholic beverages (+0.4 percent), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (+0.1 percent), clothing and footwear (+0.2 percent), housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (+0.1 percent); furnishing, households equipment and routine maintenance (+0.1 percent), health (+0.1 percent), transport (+0.2 percent), recreation and culture (+0.1 percent) and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services (+0.1 percent). Cost remained unchanged for communication and education.